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[SPOILERS] Military matters and population development (including cities)


Lord Varys

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34 minutes ago, Maia said:

So, you think that Cregan's 4 elder sons by his third wife all died of natural causes in adulthood so that the youngest, Brandon could become Lord? IMHO, every time when somebody so far down the line of succession inherits, there is a reason to suspect significant unrest. And we have already had an attempted power-grab by Cregan's uncle Bennard, so the North isn't some harmonious paradise, where everybody is honorable and utterly obedient to the titular Lord Stark. We also know that Ryswells and Dustins sent as few men as possible without inviting retribution to Robb's host and the clansmen didn't show up at all - though admittedly he may not have called them up since they had far to go. But they don't seem to be that much more distant than, say, Umbers, who came enthusiastically. Not to forget that clansmen themselves freely admitted that there had been conflicts between them and the Starks not that long ago.

We also now know, given the misadventures of the Blackwood wedding party in FaB, that even under competent leadership the North in Winter is a rather  lawless place, where people can't depend on the Starks for protection unless it is a matter of a larger hostile incursion and have to look out for themselves.

Yes, Cregan brought mostly people who wouldn't have needed to return - but then imagine what strain feeding them on the way back home through the North in the grip of Winter would have put on population along their route, who didn't really have any extra food to spare.  You like to forget that armies march on their stomachs and that the northmen clearly haven't yet figured out how to efficiently transport large amounts of goods overland in Winter. Which means that returning soldiers couldn't have been supplied out of the baggage train(s) the whole way.

Anyway, we now have some examples showing that it is actually rather important for the coastal regions of the North how matters stand in the south during hard winters and hungry springs following them - because the amount of food relief, trade and support for NW from the south all depends on it. Also general security of the sea lanes. IMHO, both Rhaenys's and Rhaenyra's association with Velaryons, who both traded in the north and provided overall security in the Narrow Sea was a significant factor in northern support for them both.

Admittedly, the more land-locked parts of the North, particularly those without rivers connecting them to the coasts - which turn in nice even roads when they freeze in Winter, would be much less affected. It may not be a coincidence that it was Greatjon who came up with the whole "King in the North" thing.

Is there any reason to think that Ned brought many more than 10K men south to avenge his father and brother? He certainly didn't bring 30K or whatever number you think the North should be able to raise when they are really serious... Do we know in what season Robert's Rebellion took place, BTW? Was it Spring?

IMHO, we shouldn't forget that the season very much affects the numbers of soldiers that can be kept in the field. The War of Five Kings happened at the end of an almost 10-year-long Summer and the Conquest was also a Summer war. That's when large armies are the most feasible. Robb surely could have raised more than 18K, but he needed to move quickly. Cregan was working under very different constraints.

Long post. But a bit lacking in focus.

Fact is, we are specifically told which Northern men joined Cregan. Just like we are told who joined Roddy. In both cases it was superfluous old men and younger sons looking for their deaths.

Not the primary Northern forces.

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40 minutes ago, Maia said:

So, you think that Cregan's 4 elder sons by his third wife all died of natural causes in adulthood so that the youngest, Brandon could become Lord? IMHO, every time when somebody so far down the line of succession inherits, there is a reason to suspect significant unrest. And we have already had an attempted power-grab by Cregan's uncle Bennard, so the North isn't some harmonious paradise, where everybody is honorable and utterly obedient to the titular Lord Stark. We also know that Ryswells and Dustins sent as few men as possible without inviting retribution to Robb's host and the clansmen didn't show up at all - though admittedly he may not have called them up since they had far to go. But they don't seem to be that much more distant than, say, Umbers, who came enthusiastically. Not to forget that clansmen themselves freely admitted that there had been conflicts between them and the Starks not that long ago.

Cregan's four sons did not die of natural causes. One died fighting for Daeron I in Dorne. One died fighting the Skagosi, who we know are basically completely isolated from northern politics (per GRRM and the books). We don't know how Jonnel died, but it's hardly common for adults to die young in Westeros. Then we get to Brandon, who's line inherited with no issues.

We know that the Dustins sent as few as possible, but we don't know that for the Ryswells. Given that it seems essentially impossible for the Ryswells to be south with Robb at any point given their movements in AFFC and ADWD, that would seem to be similar, but not confirmed, for them. I always felt this was a bit of a retcon but that's neither here not there.

There were clansmen with Robb. Norreys and Flints were noted at the RW. It doesn't look like *many* came south with Robb but given how quickly Robb wanted to move and how he'd have had to tour the mountains to get them ( possibly),  I cannot say I blame him. The descriptions we get seem like a mix of the Winter Wolves and what Jon describes about the Flints.

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On 12/3/2018 at 5:18 PM, Ran said:

Borros's host is basically the force he raised earlier and led into the mountains to avoid getting caught up in the fighting, and to position himself to join whatever side suited him. Doesn't really need more explanation than that. When he heard Rhaenyra was dead, he immediately took off with the forces he had already raised to seize King's Landing, rather than waiting for someone else to come in and take it.

Not sure if that adds up chronologically, or rather: I don't see any reason to believe that Borros didn't have had the time to marshal more men between the end of his Vulture King campaign and the news about Rhaenyra's death. Keep in mind that there are months between the riots killing the dragons in the city/Second Tumbleton, Rhaenyra's death, and Borros' arrival in KL.

And the Stormlands are not that large. The fear of dragons would have been a non-issue after the riots - especially since the dragons at Tumbleton were the Greens.

On 12/3/2018 at 5:18 PM, Ran said:

Cregan's force may, again, be dictated in part by uncertainty regarding his own vassals and their loyalties, and more significantly by the late season, a factor he specifically cited as a reason for their late appearance.

That, too, is handled not exactly all that well. I mean, when Jace shows up at Winterfell in late autumn there is already snow at Winterfell - which implies that the men close to Winterfell must have already brought their harvests in. Down in the south winter does not set in immediately after the Citadel announces it in 130 AC, but in the North it is (more or less) already there in 129 AC.

Granted, Winterfell is not the entire North, but it is difficult to imagine they were doing a lot of harvests up there while it was already snowing. That's not done in the main series.

On 12/3/2018 at 5:18 PM, Ran said:

Lady Jeyne determined to send her forces by sea, which places logistical and economic constraints on the size of the force. 10,000 is pretty impressive in conception, and and I think larger than any other military force conveyed by ship besides some of the Ironborn campaigns. The greater part of Stannis's host at the Blackwater were on the southern banks of the Blackwater, waiting to get ferried across once the landing force established a beach head.

Yes, that makes some sense, although I really don't get it why they need Braavosi galleys for all that. It is not that far from Gulltown to Crackclaw Point. They didn't have to face the Velaryon fleet in the Gullet or anything like that. They could have just gotten their men across the Bay of Crabs and the march to KL overland. While the Graftons might not have a large war fleet, they should have trading ships and the like to make this short journey.

As for the North:

The North would be as united or split during the Dance as the Vale, the Westerlands, and the Stormlands were. It would have been good if Gyldayn had actually mentioned things like that, but there is no reason to assume the North is somehow more united than the other regions. 

And as Ran has said - Gyldayn doesn't really care about internal northern politics - however, the recent power struggle within House Stark sheds some light on the situation up there. Cregan Stark may have been less green than the Lads, but he was still a very young men, and likely very well advised to ensure nobody up there tries to exploit his absence.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

They could have just gotten their men across the Bay of Crabs and the march to KL overland. While the Graftons might not have a large war fleet, they should have trading ships and the like to make this short journey.

So what you're saying is Martin missed a golden opportunity to depict his own version of Dunkirk...just in the opposite direction.

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11 minutes ago, DMC said:

So what you're saying is Martin missed a golden opportunity to depict his own version of Dunkirk...just in the opposite direction.

I'm saying it is very odd and makes no sense that the Vale army would want to face the Velaryon fleet in the Gullet if they could just as well circumvent them, land at a different place (as half of the armada later does) and take KL without much difficulty.

It is also quite clear that from a strategic viewpoint any deployment of Vale troops on the mainland should go by ways of Gulltown/Crackclaw Point/Maidenpool because that's the shortest distance.

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1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm saying it is very odd and makes no sense that the Vale army would want to face the Velaryon fleet in the Gullet if they could just as well circumvent them, land at a different place (as half of the armada later does) and take KL without much difficulty.

 

I know - it was a joke!

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6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Where does Gyldayn differentiate between 'secondary' and 'primary' Northern forces?

Firstly, we’ve established that none of the Westerlands, Vale, Reach or North committed close to their full strength to this War. However, only the North’s forces are specifically stated to consist of leftover old men and younger sons going south to die.

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4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Firstly, we’ve established that none of the Westerlands, Vale, Reach or North committed close to their full strength to this War. However, only the North’s forces are specifically stated to consist of leftover old men and younger sons going south to die.

That doesn't mean that those men are bad warriors. Just that their families are better off without them or they have no families to be with, anyway.

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But you're not denying that each major power did not muster as much troops as possible.  I think that's clear - on all accounts.  What F&B also makes apparent is if Rhaenyra just chilled at Gulltown or wherever would have her, she would have won.  

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When attacking, Aegon had 30000 men including 300 lords and 2000 knights and Orys had 1000 knights. Again something along the lines of "one knight in ten" Since these are an assortment of lords and their levies from many places, I think 1 KNIGHT(not horsemen but knight) in 10 was really a thing and it was the preferred composition of armies.

Lord Peake had 100 knights and 900 men at arms at some point in dance(not sure how many he started with)

 

Maegor's 20000 had near twice the knights of the 20000 army made up of near 13000 poor fellows, 200 knights of the warrior's sons and levies and knights from rebel lords.

Faith warriors would make slightly above or below 13000 and Lords slightly above or below 7000.

If rebel lords and Maegor's vassals both had 1 knight in 10, this would also make Maegor having roughly twice the knights. 

 

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Robert Rowan is joined by 600 Freys and 1000 Blackwoods, does that imply Blackwoods, at the time at least, were more powerful than Freys?

 Charltons are vassals of Frey right now but they aren't told to be so in Dance(right?). We also know, from Tarbeck's acquisitions, Land can be sold or bought and allegiances can be changed from some Westerlords on the border swearing themselves to Tyrells during the reign of Tytos so is it possible Freys became more powerful than the other powerful RL houses only after dance?

 

Another thouhght is, were Freys the most powerful Bannermen even at the start of the story?

We get this 

Quote

House Frey might have abandoned the King in the North, but the Lord of the Crossing remained the most powerful of Riverrun's bannermen, and Lothar was here in his stead.

Only once and only after the other Riverlords are spent losing their much of their levy in battles and their means to raise more men when their smallfolk is killed, villages burned. Could it be the Freys remain the most powerful only because other, more powerful lords lost their strength?

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10 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Robert Rowan is joined by 600 Freys and 1000 Blackwoods, does that imply Blackwoods, at the time at least, were more powerful than Freys?

At this point I imagine they could be, though there is not much in it. Both are more powerful than the Tully's at this point. 

House Tully was unique amongst the great houses of Westeros. Aegon the Conqueror had made them the Lords Paramount of the Trident, yet in many ways they continued to be overshadowed by many of their own bannermen. The Brackens, the Blackwoods, and the Vances all ruled wider domains and could field much larger armies, as could the upstart Freys of the Twins.

But I imagine the Blackwoods providing more is down to Benjicot going along while Sabitha likely did not. Sabitha is described as 'grasping' while Benji is an adventurer, it makes sense that not only would he go but supply more men.

Both the Darrys and Mootons, along with the Hayfords, supplied an additional 2,400 meaning that those two Riverland Houses very likely also sent more than the Freys and we know the Freys, even at that point, were more powerful than them.

10 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

 Charltons are vassals of Frey right now but they aren't told to be so in Dance(right?). We also know, from Tarbeck's acquisitions, Land can be sold or bought and allegiances can be changed from some Westerlords on the border swearing themselves to Tyrells during the reign of Tytos so is it possible Freys became more powerful than the other powerful RL houses only after dance?

I was thinking that as well given the finances of the kingdom and the devastation of the winter. With the lack of solid rule under the regency it is more than possible that she extended her son's lands. 

Sabitha seems to established herself and her House in the aftermath of the War

It is reliably reported that Lord Cregan Stark was also offered a place amongst the regents, but refused. Conspicuous omissions from the council included Kermit Tully, Unwin Peake, Sabitha Frey, Thaddeus Rowan, Lyonel Hightower, Johanna Lannister, and Benjicot Blackwood

Given her gender and her House's status, her being considered for a Regency position is impressive. 

I

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1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

But I imagine the Blackwoods providing more is down to Benjicot going along while Sabitha likely did not. Sabitha is described as 'grasping' while Benji is an adventurer, it makes sense that not only would he go but supply more men.

Both the Darrys and Mootons, along with the Hayfords, supplied an additional 2,400 meaning that those two Riverland Houses very likely also sent more than the Freys and we know the Freys, even at that point, were more powerful than them.

We know Mootons have/had some power even during conquest though; Mootons and Darklyns fielded 3000 men whereas Aegon only had an army of 11000, mostly if not wholly riverlanders, in Field of Fire and it included Mootons as well as Freys. So not in the current time line but back then, perhaps even the Mootons were more powerful than Freys.

 

2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

was thinking that as well given the finances of the kingdom and the devastation of the winter. With the lack of solid rule under the regency it is more than possible that she extended her son's lands

Given that House Frey was only 300 years old during conquest, I can see that they were only just a fledgling 'major house'  during the conquest and only became the power they currently are after the Dance, using their wealth. 

I can see the same with Manderlys, they date back 900-1300 years(in the North) but in time have become the most powerful bannermen.

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So Aemond heads out at the head of 4000 men. Earlier, Criston Cole set out with "100 knights and 500 men of the royal household and three times as many sellswords" He later adds Rosby and Stokeworth men to his strength and most but not all of the Darklyn men, he later loses 800.

 All in all it makes 4800 men So Rosby, Stokeworth and most of Darklyns make some 2400 if there aren't anyone else. We know Stokeworths and Rosbys aren't powerful lords.

 

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12 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

We know Mootons have/had some power even during conquest though; Mootons and Darklyns fielded 3000 men whereas Aegon only had an army of 11000, mostly if not wholly riverlanders, in Field of Fire and it included Mootons as well as Freys. So not in the current time line but back then, perhaps even the Mootons were more powerful than Freys.

No, Fire & Blood lists the houses that can raise more men than the Tullys and the Mootons are not among them, though they are wealthier. 

At that point (Dance) in time the Freys were more powerful, military wise, than Tullys and Mootons. 

 

12 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I can see the same with Manderlys, they date back 900-1300 years(in the North) but in time have become the most powerful bannermen.

The Manderlys were given the best real estate in the North, the previous rulers of their lands were able to challenge their Stark cousins so its no surprise that the Manderly's quickly rose to be one of, if not the, most powerful Northern vassal

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24 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

No, Fire & Blood lists the houses that can raise more men than the Tullys and the Mootons are not among them, though they are wealthier. 

At that point (Dance) in time the Freys were more powerful, military wise, than Tullys and Mootons. 

But when? Just after conquest? Just before/After Dance? When the maester wrote FaB?

Freys exceeding Tullya but not Mootons doesn't really mean anything if this is after dance and Freys have acquired new lands and are able to field, say 1700 men, Tullys 1500 and Mootons 1300 but Freys during conquest were only able to raise 900 men with Tullys and Mootons still fielding 1700 and 1500.

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The tidbit about the Tullys is interesting for context, but it doesn't help us assess the relative strength of the Tullys and their bannermen in the 3rd century since we don't have any idea how much power the Riverlords acquired or lost in the time in-between. The Freys may have very well be more powerful in the aftermath of the Dance than they were in the days of Walder's father, considering the latter was flirting with the Blackfyres.

Power and wealth are quickly acquired and lost in the Riverlands.

We have no clue where the Vances, Brackens, and Blackwoods stand in the present in relation to the Tullys. I'd not be surprised if the Tullys had slowly but surely acquired more and more power during the years in-between, with Hoster finally reaping some pretty good rewards in land for his service to King Robert during the Rebellion.

Other thing:

What do you guys make of the tax on crenelations and the privilege to restore or rebuild a castle in relation to the broken tower at Winterfell? We discussed what this means a while back. I'd say this adds more substance to the idea that the Starks couldn't afford/weren't willing to pay the taxes they would have to pay had they wanted to rebuild the tower.

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6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The tidbit about the Tullys is interesting for context, but it doesn't help us assess the relative strength of the Tullys and their bannermen in the 3rd century since we don't have any idea how much power the Riverlords acquired or lost in the time in-between. The Freys may have very well be more powerful in the aftermath of the Dance than they were in the days of Walder's father, considering the latter was flirting with the Blackfyres.

Power and wealth are quickly acquired and lost in the Riverlands.

We have no clue where the Vances, Brackens, and Blackwoods stand in the present in relation to the Tullys. I'd not be surprised if the Tullys had slowly but surely acquired more and more power during the years in-between, with Hoster finally reaping some pretty good rewards in land for his service to King Robert during the Rebellion.

Other thing:

What do you guys make of the tax on crenelations and the privilege to restore or rebuild a castle in relation to the broken tower at Winterfell? We discussed what this means a while back. I'd say this adds more substance to the idea that the Starks couldn't afford/weren't willing to pay the taxes they would have to pay had they wanted to rebuild the tower.

 

Tullys really don't have the room to expand though; Their land was given by Vances and it's location is near the Black supporter Wayfarer Branch. I can, however, see them having more direct vassals after RR; Say for example a minor lord previously was a Darry(or Ryger, Goodbrook etc.) bannermen, after the war with Darry losing power, he is directly sworn to Hoster instead. I can even see Hoster given some of the lands directly held by his rebellious lords.

 

As for Winterfell, I can see the tax as a reason for disrepair; Starks has no need to fear, especially after becoming vassal to IT, so paying a huge amount of money just so they can repair a building which won't be needed is unnecessary. Not once has the Winterfell been besieged after the conquest and likely even some hundreds of years before that  (after Greystark Rebellion). This is no reason to believe Starks are poor, just that they don't need it. 

Say I live in a place where it is hot/warm all year long, does it mean I am poor and can't fford to buy a qalpaq if I don't buy this completely unnecessary(for me) hat which I won't use?

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