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Canadian Politics: Revenge of the small minds


maarsen

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Okay I know I said I was stepping away from politics, but I couldn't help myself and watched the debate.

Significantly better format than the English debate, and my limited French tells me Trudeau did a lot better than in the English debate. Scheer however proved he has no shame, Trudeau wouldn't pass the conservative vetting process? He's not the one that lied about his job and education you wanker. Singh's seemingly constant refrain of "Trudeau says nice things but doesn't act" got grating pretty quick. And he seemingly doesn't understand diplomacy all that well. None of the other's really stood out, except maybe Bernier's use of "socialism" as an insult.

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I didn't watch it, as what little french I still retain is horrible. Read lots of writes up though, and lots of live tweeting. To me it sounded like Trudeau performed a lot better, Andrew did the same or worse, May kind of fizzled, and Singh made a few more gaffs, illustrating, again, how little he gets jurisdiction. Also read Maxime did well stacking against Scheer, eating a little further into the Conservative base.

Does all of that sound accurate based off what you saw, True?   

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In that case the post debate polling should be interesting. Prior too, the Conservatives were closing on the Liberal lead to most seats [both still in minority territory though]

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So the cons released their platform, it's exactly what Trudeau and the Liberals where saying it would be. (fuck really, it's worse) I'd say all those comparisons to Ford and Harper look pretty accurate, but those complaining about Trudeau bringing up Ford and Harper since Scheer hadn't actually said wtf he was going to do don't have the decency to admit Trudeau was right, even when he was being right about water being wet.

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Yeah, I've been reading up a bit on it.

14 and some odd billion are included in that as hidden cuts, looking for efficiencies [ala Ford, Kenney, privatization no doubt] blah blah. 

Canada? We might have a Conservative problem

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Well, this is going to be a close election.

The advance poll numbers were huge, with over 2,000,000 voting, 25% higher than the last time, when people were determined to get rid of Harper. So is that good news or bad news for Trudeau? From past elections I know the NDP are very good at getting out the vote, but so are the Conservatives.

My brother was watching Winnipeg news the other day and people interviewed after voting were saying they wanted change. I don’t know what channel he was watching though, if it was a CTV station I think they’d skew things to be Conservative positive.

The latest Grenier poll compilation suggests 134 seats for the Liberals, 132 for the Conservatives, so damn close. The wild card will be this apparent swing to the Bloc in Quebec. They also predict a 12% chance for a Liberal majority, a 39% chance for a Liberal minority and a 42% chance for a Conservative minority.

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Yeah, it's going to be a nail biter. The NDP did a little, but the Bloc really cut into the Liberals lead post debates, re: seat projections.

Oct 22 is going to be one holy hot mess, for sure. 

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Hard to say from my vantage point (as a newcomer to the country), but from what I can glean a Liberal majority is basically not going to happen. There seems to be enough of a mood for change that they will at least have to govern in coalition. Who does the Bloc usually align with in minority government negotiations? 

At the same time, I'm not sure the Conservatives can pick up enough seats themselves to force a Scheer premiership. 

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I’d say that was pretty accurate, Paxter.

The Bloc like to be the jerks in the room. As long as they get what they want, they’ll cooperate. Once they get tired of whoever is ruling, they’ll pull the plug. It seems like they just might get more seats than the NDP, so they will expect to be catered to.

It will be interesting to see what Quebec voters are going to do.

eta: the NDP propped up Harper’s first two minority governments. It was the opposition who forced the Conservatives to act like decent human beings during the financial crisis (their first instinct was to announce massive cuts, I almost drove off the road when I heard the ‘economic statement ‘ announced by then Finance Minister Flaherty) and the Canadian public awarded them with a majority government. Of course, they then lost the next election. And of course, you only need 40% of the vote to get a majority government.

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Barack Obama's endorsement of Justin Trudeau has set the cat amongst the pigeons here. I wonder how much influence it ends up having in the election. I keep wondering if he has met with Scheer at some point and really dislikes him. 

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re: Obama, I'd be surprised if it didn't make a dent, but no idea how deep it might be. 

Polling is so varied across the board I really have no idea wtf election night might surmount to. I actually saw a poll yesterday that showed the Liberals within a stone's throw of a majority, and that would frankly shock me.

I wouldn't be surprised if we have another election within 6 months lol

 

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54 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

re: Obama, I'd be surprised if it didn't make a dent, but no idea how deep it might be. 

Polling is so varied across the board I really have no idea wtf election night might surmount to. I actually saw a poll yesterday that showed the Liberals within a stone's throw of a majority, and that would frankly shock me.

I wouldn't be surprised if we have another election within 6 months lol

 

The big what if is the votes of young people who want to see action on climate change. Will they spread their votes amongst Green, NDP, or Liberal parties or will they vote strategically? Climate change is a big issue and if enough people vote for parties that really want to try and help then whoever is elected may be forced in that direction. 

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Yeah, that's a tough one. I suspect splitting, more than strategic voting, between the Liberals and NDP. The Greens don't seem to have gotten any traction, and I'm 100 OK with that, they're a mess. At this point, I'll call it a straight win if the Liberals only need the NDP on board to form Government. Less so if they need the Greens, but still a win. The Conservatives don't really have a path to victory, and the Bloc can go fuck themselves [this is not a national party, not really, but acceptable if only to keep separatist sentiment in Quebec mollified]    

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The up-to-date poll numbers took me by surprise, there’s been so much movement from what I reported above.

The prediction is now the Liberals taking 137 seats, the Cons dropping to 126,  the NDP now ahead of the Bloc with 44 and 37 respectively, the Greens down to 2 and one to PPC, Bernier’s seat I assume. Both the main parties continued to lose a bit of ground, to the NDP and the Bloc.

The margin of error is what is contributing to the idea of the Liberals still winning a majority, but I don’t think they can pull that off.

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On 10/17/2019 at 9:25 PM, Fragile Bird said:

eta: the NDP propped up Harper’s first two minority governments. It was the opposition who forced the Conservatives to act like decent human beings during the financial crisis (their first instinct was to announce massive cuts, I almost drove off the road when I heard the ‘economic statement ‘ announced by then Finance Minister Flaherty) and the Canadian public awarded them with a majority government. Of course, they then lost the next election. And of course, you only need 40% of the vote to get a majority government.

(Citation needed)

The NDP voted repeatedly against the Harper government during the minority governments of 2006-2008 and 2008-2011. The same cannot be said of the Liberals under either Dion or Ignatieff. 

The situation in 2008 is actually fairly interesting in light of the recent ruling of the UK Supreme Court, namely that prorogation to thwart the will of Parliament (e.g. with a confidence or Brexit vote...) is unlawful. That also means that it wouldn't have mattered what the Governor-General decided - the Royal Prerogative does not extend to acts which counter parliamentary supremecy. 

In that light, we would have had a PM Dion, Deputy PM Layton, and Duceppe and the Bloc agreeing not to bring them down. What's notable about the "coalition crisis" was that Harper and the Conservatives were trying to fan the flames of illegitimacy at that time - not unlike Scheer's comments about how the party with the most seats has the "right" to govern via "modern" convention (to say nothing of his endless other lies). 

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