Canadian Politics: Revenge of the small minds

[Paxter]

Sounds good FB. I guess if we are past peak hospitalization for this wave, then all the attention now turns to governments across the country on (gradual) transition from lockdown in May.

[Aemon Stark]

2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Newfoundland, with 240 cases, for example, only has 8 or 9 in ICU, according to the last report I saw from Aemon Stark. They have 109 active cases, the rest are 'resolved', which means certified ok or, sadly, dead. The small provinces were of great concern at the start. 

It's actually even better than that - 9 in hospital, 3 in ICU. 

[maarsen]

Ontario legislature just approved another 28 days of lockdown. 

[TrueMetis]

So yesterday, some idiots staged a "protest" in Vancouver to end the lock down. Now #endthelockdown is trending, fortunately most people are mocking it. The mastermind of the protest was a genius that goes by Dan Dicks on twitter.

Also on twitter, people are buzzing because PM Trudeau has recently gone from Rideau Cottage, to Harrington Lake where he sent his family. Harrington Lake is 30 minutes away from Rideau Cottage. But since it technically crosses provincial borders they're pissy about him "breaking the rules".

[Fragile Bird]

Update

April            6      7       8       9      10      11       12       13

 BC             31     25      45    34      40     35                  45

AB              98     25     50     28      49     69       82       81     

ON           309   379   550   483    478    411    401     421

PQ            636   760   691   881    765    615    554     711

The rest     47     41     57     48       51     40      29       35

              1121 1230  1393 1474   1383 1170   1066   1293

I was reading notes on various pages, and Worldometer says their numbers are from the federal government web site, while the federal site states there will be discrepancies and where there are, to rely on reports from individual provinces, so that's what I use.

[Fragile Bird]

Conservatives being Conservatives:

Quote

B.C. MP Marc Dalton has deleted a tweet asking whether it is time to start reopening businesses if most of the deaths from COVID-19 in this country are older people in long-term care homes.

In a tweet Monday morning, the Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge representative said the average life expectancy in care homes is two years and that 65 per cent of residents usually die in the first year after moving in.

Then he questioned whether it is “time to start moving Canada back to work.”

The post was deleted shortly after The Canadian Press began inquiring about it.

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/6813593/marc-dalton-tweet-coronavirus-care-home-economy/

[Fragile Bird]

Jason Kenney freaked out in an interview yesterday, attacking the federal government for not acting fast enough to ban all travel, and attacking Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada's Chief Public Health Officer, accusing her of ignoring science, being an incompetent, and acting as a parrot for government of China talking points. Dr. Tam completed her medical degree from the University of Nottingham, a paediatric residency at the University of Alberta and a fellowship in paediatric infectious diseases at UBC. She's published over 55 peer-reviewed journal publications on public health. Kenney dropped out of university after two years into an undergrad philosophy degree after threatening to bring a complaint against school officials to the Vatican (why are there such fucking crazy Catholics in the Conservative Party? It makes me cringe as a Catholic myself). Kenney himself claimed the virus posed no risk to Albertans early on.

My reaction this morning when I heard about it was uh, oh, Alberta numbers must be bad, after Kenney had bragged last week about how well Alberta was doing, unlike Ontatio and Quebec. After some low numbers last week, Alberta had 69, 82 and 81 new cases, and bam, 138 today. He also apparently has the worst numbers in polling about how premiers are doing.

Anyway...

Update

April            6      7       8       9      10      11       12       13      14

 BC             31     25      45    34      40     35                  45      27

AB              98     25     50     28      49     69       82       81    138     

ON           309   379   550   483    478    411    401     421     483

PQ            636   760   691   881    765    615    554     711     691

The rest     47     41     57     48       51     40      29       35       44

              1121 1230  1393 1474   1383 1170   1066   1293  1383

I expected a bump up as Ontario increased testing, targetting nursing homes. And Nova Scotia is struggling a bit, the bulk of the Other numbers have all been in Nova Scotia, with 43 new cases today, but they are testing a lot. The other 1 was from Saskatchewan and everybody else was at zero.

[maarsen]

9 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Jason Kenney freaked out in an interview yesterday, attacking the federal government for not acting fast enough to ban all travel, and attacking Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada's Chief Public Health Officer, accusing her of ignoring science, being an incompetent, and acting as a parrot for government of China talking points. Dr. Tam completed her medical degree from the University of Nottingham, a paediatric residency at the University of Alberta and a fellowship in paediatric infectious diseases at UBC. She's published over 55 peer-reviewed journal publications on public health. Kenney dropped out of university after two years into an undergrad philosophy degree after threatening to bring a complaint against school officials to the Vatican (why are there such fucking crazy Catholics in the Conservative Party? It makes me cringe as a Catholic myself). Kenney himself claimed the virus posed no risk to Albertans early on.

My reaction this morning when I heard about it was uh, oh, Alberta numbers must be bad, after Kenney had bragged last week about how well Alberta was doing, unlike Ontatio and Quebec. After some low numbers last week, Alberta had 69, 82 and 81 new cases, and bam, 138 today. He also apparently has the worst numbers in polling about how premiers are doing.

Anyway...

Update

April            6      7       8       9      10      11       12       13      14

 BC             31     25      45    34      40     35                  45      27

AB              98     25     50     28      49     69       82       81    138     

ON           309   379   550   483    478    411    401     421     483

PQ            636   760   691   881    765    615    554     711     691

The rest     47     41     57     48       51     40      29       35       44

              1121 1230  1393 1474   1383 1170   1066   1293  1383

I expected a bump up as Ontario increased testing, targetting nursing homes. And Nova Scotia is struggling a bit, the bulk of the Other numbers have all been in Nova Scotia, with 43 new cases today, but they are testing a lot. The other 1 was from Saskatchewan and everybody else was at zero.

Anybody want to pick up a bet that Kenney will be a one term premier? 

[Paxter]

I find it hard to interpret this crisis sometimes. On the one hand I'm extremely heartened that daily new cases in Canada have basically been flat in since the start of the month. On the other hand, we just had a new peak of fatalities/day yesterday - into three figures for the first time. 

[Fragile Bird]

14 minutes ago, Paxter said:

I find it hard to interpret this crisis sometimes. On the one hand I'm extremely heartened that daily new cases in Canada have basically been flat in since the start of the month. On the other hand, we just had a new peak of fatalities/day yesterday - into three figures for the first time. 

This is the lag time between getting the first symptoms, suffering with them, getting sick enough to go to hospital and then dying. Somewhere along the line I read a statistic that the average time between going to hospital and dying (for those who die) is 8 days.

So you are getting deaths of people who got infected probably three weeks ago. 

[Paxter]

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

This is the lag time between getting the first symptoms, suffering with them, getting sick enough to go to hospital and then dying. Somewhere along the line I read a statistic that the average time between going to hospital and dying (for those who die) is 8 days.

So you are getting deaths of people who got infected probably three weeks ago. 

On that basis, we are likely to see 100ish fatalities/day for quite a while now, but without any further spikes so long as new cases remain stable. Feels like we are on a similar trajectory to Germany, which is certainly no bad thing on a relative analysis. 

[Fragile Bird]

Update

April            7       8       9      10      11       12       13      14      15

 BC             25      45    34      40     35                  45      27      44

AB              25     50     28      49     69       82       81    138    126 

ON           379   550   483    478    411    401     421     483    494

PQ            760   691   881    765    615    554     711     691    612

The rest      41     57     48       51     40      29       35       44      42

               1230  1393 1474   1383 1170   1066   1293  1383   1318

After days of not having any new cases, a couple of provinces had 1, 2 or 3 cases, but NS only had 32 today. AB had another crummy day, with 126. The news stories on line don't explain why, if it's a hotspot, a nursing home, or where the bumpup came from.

Ontario has three nursing homes with more than 20 deaths, as does Quebec. We've only had 107 deaths reported today, it was 127 yesterday, the worst day so far.

[LynnS]

On 4/13/2020 at 5:45 PM, TrueMetis said:

So yesterday, some idiots staged a "protest" in Vancouver to end the lock down. Now #endthelockdown is trending, fortunately most people are mocking it. The mastermind of the protest was a genius that goes by Dan Dicks on twitter.

Also on twitter, people are buzzing because PM Trudeau has recently gone from Rideau Cottage, to Harrington Lake where he sent his family. Harrington Lake is 30 minutes away from Rideau Cottage. But since it technically crosses provincial borders they're pissy about him "breaking the rules".

I have a problem with this kind of protest.  We are not out of the woods and I think we do need a cautious approach to easing restrictions.  I'm concerned about a second and third wave.  I'm also concerned about losing doctors, nurses and care staff to the virus.  I haven't had a doctor since last June when she left the clinic.  That's the second time in 3 years that I've been on a waitlist.  

I also have a problem with fining people for having a beer on their property or driveway and talking with a neighbors.  I think this is overkill especially if they are observing distancing rules.  Walking the dog shouldn't be an issue.  Nor should a father playing with his autistic child in a open field lead to a ridiculous fine.  Then we get some individuals who protest in groups giving the impression that they don't believe there is any danger.   I think we are probably talking about mental health issues in terms of easing stress and anxiety.  I go out once every two weeks for grocery.  In fact, I'm afraid to expose myself in spite of having the full kit; DIY face mask, gloves and hand sanitizer.  But how long can someone be cooped up in a small space like an apartment before they can't stand it anymore?  What's it going to be like in the summer when people need access to cooling centers?  I get that the governments doesn't want a monkey see, monkey do scenario.    

So the optics of Trudeau going to his cottage with a motorcade, after telling the public that nobody should be travelling to cottage or seeing family over easter, then immediately telling the public that he would be doing just that, is mind boggling to say the least.  That's a large disconnect in his mind.  It seems like it didn't even occur to him that he was contradicting himself or setting a double standard.   A large majority of people are not going to see this in partisans terms.  They are going to see it as a deficiency in our prime minister and an advertisement that the virus isn't as dangerous as we're being told.  Ergo, we get the kind of protest we saw in BC.

This is another problem:

https://nationalpost.com/news/it-has-become-the-civic-duty-covid-19-pandemic-is-turning-us-into-a-nation-of-snitches?video_autoplay=true

If you saw two people walking down the street with their dogs and not observing distancing rules; would you assume they lived in the same house or would you call the snitch line?  Ditto a man, a woman and 3 kids taking a stroll with nobody else in sight.  

[Paxter]

I'm probably with you on Trudeau @LynnS. He has some real brain fades at times. 

The longer this goes on, the clearer it becomes that the failure to take enough precautionary measures in aged care facilities has been a major problem and the primary driver of fatalities in Canada. Perhaps we have been so caught up in the "macro" (e.g. closing borders, social distancing) that we have forgotten about the "micro" (e.g. does each and every aged care facility have strict controls in place given their vulnerability?)

[LynnS]

49 minutes ago, Paxter said:

I'm probably with you on Trudeau @LynnS. He has some real brain fades at times. 

The longer this goes on, the clearer it becomes that the failure to take enough precautionary measures in aged care facilities has been a major problem and the primary driver of fatalities in Canada. Perhaps we have been so caught up in the "macro" (e.g. closing borders, social distancing) that we have forgotten about the "micro" (e.g. does each and every aged care facility have strict eracontrols in place given their vulnerability?)

It's now obvious that the 'iron ring' government thought they had created around long term care homes had a blind spot.  The fact that nurses and care workers moved from home to home while infected and the most likely vector for break outs.  This is not meant as blame for care workers who also seemed to be on the bottom end of the priority list for PPE among many other failures.  Governments seemed to think that if nobody was given access except except care staff that the elderly would be more protected.  That turned out to be a false assumption.  Now we have a population of care workers at high risk.

[Fragile Bird]

1 hour ago, Paxter said:

I'm probably with you on Trudeau @LynnS. He has some real brain fades at times. 

The longer this goes on, the clearer it becomes that the failure to take enough precautionary measures in aged care facilities has been a major problem and the primary driver of fatalities in Canada. Perhaps we have been so caught up in the "macro" (e.g. closing borders, social distancing) that we have forgotten about the "micro" (e.g. does each and every aged care facility have strict controls in place given their vulnerability?)

I actually disagree with you both about Trudeau. He quarantined himself for 14 days while his wife was ill, and probably away from the children as well, and then when her case was resolved she and the children went to Harrington Lake and he went through another 14 days to make certain he hadn't picked up the virus from her by accident. He went to visit his wife and children after a 30 day separation from them. He didn't bolt there to get away from Covid-19 like New Yorkers bolted to their upstate country homes or rich Torontonians bolted to the cottage in Muskoka, putting pressure on communities that weren't geared up for visitors, stressing resources. They also had lived in the same house together, they didn't have an Easter party with other family or friends, the way Ivanka and Jared had a Passover celebration at one of daddy's golf courses. Is it proper for his wife and kids to be there is the next question. Do you want to risk having the PM go through another 14 day quarantine?

Harrington Lake just happens to be in Quebec, because the same wealthy family who owned 24 Sussex Drive bought 1200 acres around the lake (Lac Mousseau in Quebec) and built the house there, and later sold it to the government of Canada for a park. Prime Minister Mackenzie King had his summer place 2 miles away, and it was decided it was a good location for the PM Diefenbaker's summer residence, and every PM after.

In the same way I do not attack Sheer for taking his family back to Ottawa with him on that government jet, though it did put stress on Elizabeth May and the other MP on the plane. It's not what the rest of us are supposed to be doing, but we are not MPs and I'd be pissed if a second jet was sent to pick up his family.

As for old age homes, it has long been a problem area, made worse in Ontario because nursing home operators went to the new government and said there were too many regulations governing them and they shouldn't have to have as many inspections as they have. So Ford, who wanted to style himself as a 'cut the bs regulations' premier just like every Conservative on the face of the earth, has been cutting regulations. The same thing happened to the water supply in the 90s, the brilliant Conservatives decided water treatment plants were overly regulated. Then people started dying, and hundreds ended up with damaged kidneys.

I don't know the issue in other provinces, but the regulation of nursing homes certainly seems to have been slack.

[Fragile Bird]

5 minutes ago, LynnS said:

It's now obvious that the 'iron ring' government thought they had created around long term care homes had a blind spot.  The fact that nurses and care workers moved from home to home while infected and the most likely vector for break outs.  This is not meant as blame for care workers who also seemed to be on the bottom end of the priority list for PPE among many other failures.  Governments seemed to think that if nobody was given access except except care staff that the elderly would be more protected.  That turned out to be a false assumption.  Now we have a population of care workers at high risk.

They are only talking about an 'iron-ring' now.

Workers work at different homes because the homes aren't giving them enough hours to get benefits, in some cases, and in other cases because the workers want to make more money and there are no rules about not working at more than one place. Also, so they can work more hours, since no legislation in any province restricts the how many hours you can work, except very specific industries like truck driving and flying a plane.

[Fragile Bird]

Holy smokes, 143 deaths overnight in Quebec alone.

Oh, they re-examined all the deaths in the past week.

997 new cases. But in Quebec these are tested + people with symptoms.

[Paxter]

2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

They are only talking about an 'iron-ring' now.

Workers work at different homes because the homes aren't giving them enough hours to get benefits, in some cases, and in other cases because the workers want to make more money and there are no rules about not working at more than one place. Also, so they can work more hours, since no legislation in any province restricts the how many hours you can work, except very specific industries like truck driving and flying a plane.

I don't think anyone is blaming the workers (I certainly am not!) The issue is governance. And it's not unique to Ontario, or even Canada. Many countries will have to seriously reform the funding and regulation of aged care in the wake of this crisis. 

The Trudeau thing is not really worth arguing over. It's just an optics thing. 

[Fragile Bird]

An ugly day today.

Update

April            8       9      10      11       12       13      14      15       16

 BC              45    34      40     35                  45      27      44       14

AB              50     28      49     69       82       81    138    126      162

ON           550   483    478    411    401     421     483    494     514

PQ            691   881    765    615    554     711     691    612     997

The rest      57     48       51     40      29       35       44      42      40

               1393 1474   1383 1170   1066   1293  1383   1318   1727

I think this is the worst day yet.