Fragile Bird Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 Going to do the updates differently, as we approach reintegration time. Update Apr. 20 21 22 23 cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths BC 52 5 25 1 71 3 29 4 Albt 105 4 187 2 306 5 319 2 Sask 1 0 4 0 6 0 5 0 Man 1 1 1 0 2 0 5 0 ON 606 31 551 38 510 37 634 54 Que 962 62 807 102 839 93 873 109 NB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NS 46 0 16 1 35 2 55 4 PEI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nfld 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Totals 1775 103 1591 144 1769 140 1920 173 Saskatchewan outlined it's 5 phases of re-starting their economy today. I expect BC, Man, PEI, NB and Nfld to announce their plans soon as well, plus the territories, which I haven't shown because while the Yukon had 3 new cases this week, basically nothing has happened up north and there are no deaths. Alberta only has 3,720 cases, but after doing so well they added 1988 of those cases in 9 days. Ontario is uncovering a record number of cases with the added testing, and it seems they are mainly nursing home cases. After being shocked that Quebec's deaths are 75% from nursing homes, today it was revealled 70% in Ontario are also nursing home deaths. Soon I will only be doing BC, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec. And totals. This is only to watch as provinces re-open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 As predicted - New Brunswick is starting to ease restrictions. You can now meet up with one other household, if they agree. And low risk public spaces will be re-opened. But you must continue to follow guidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 58 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: As predicted - New Brunswick is starting to ease restrictions. You can now meet up with one other household, if they agree. And low risk public spaces will be re-opened. But you must continue to follow guidelines. Makes sense. I think we're at least four weeks away from this in ON, maybe longer if they can't get the test/trace thing happening soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 Update Apr. 21 22 23 24 cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths BC 25 1 71 3 29 4 29 4 Albt 187 2 306 5 319 2 297 5 Sask 4 0 6 0 5 0 10 0 Man 1 0 2 0 5 0 1 0 ON 551 38 510 37 634 54 640 50 Que 807 102 839 93 873 109 778 97 NB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NS 16 1 35 2 55 4 23 0 PEI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nfld 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Totals 1591 144 1769 140 1920 173 1778 156 No surprise, expanded testing in Ontario means more cases have been found, except they're mainly in nursing homes. Saskatchewan announced their re-opening plans, so of course they found 10 new cases, which they haven't had since April 8. NB announced their plans today, let's hope that doesn't happen there tomorrow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Update Apr. 23 24 25 26 27 cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths BC 29 4 29 4 95 2 - - 50 3 Albt 319 2 297 5 216 1 247 0 216 2 Sask 5 0 10 0 8 0 4 0 12 1 Man 5 0 1 0 4 0 4 0 1 0 ON 634 54 640 50 476 48 437 24 424 57 Que 873 109 778 97 651 106 840 69 875 84 NB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NS 55 4 23 0 15 6 8 2 27 0 PEI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nfld 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 Totals 1920 173 1778 156 1466 163 1541 95 1605 147 Playing catch-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Perhaps I was premature in praising BC? They have seen a mini-spike in new cases recently and their testing rate is the lowest across all Provinces (1,397 per 100,000 people). 100 fatalities is still low though for a population of 5m. Ford was right to kick some ass on Ontario testing - it's now up to 1,646 per 100,000 residents. Still need to catch up with Alberta (about 3,000) and Quebec (2,377). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Paxter said: Perhaps I was premature in praising BC? They have seen a mini-spike in new cases recently and their testing rate is the lowest across all Provinces (1,397 per 100,000 people). 100 fatalities is still low though for a population of 5m. Ford was right to kick some ass on Ontario testing - it's now up to 1,646 per 100,000 residents. Still need to catch up with Alberta (about 3,000) and Quebec (2,377). I saw the BC press conference on Saturday. The health officer said they had found some small hotspots through surveillance testing. Don't know where, but a poultry processing plant was shut down. Ontario is at over 12,000 tests per day, on to 14,000 by the end of the week. The health officer said he has been asking for community and nursing home numbers to be divided, but he didn't have it today. He did say the community number was close to 300, which is still too high to open places up. I think Quebec opening schools in May is too early.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 26 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: I saw the BC press conference on Saturday. The health officer said they had found some small hotspots through surveillance testing. Don't know where, but a poultry processing plant was shut down. Ontario is at over 12,000 tests per day, on to 14,000 by the end of the week. The health officer said he has been asking for community and nursing home numbers to be divided, but he didn't have it today. He did say the community number was close to 300, which is still too high to open places up. I think Quebec opening schools in May is too early.... Agreed - the curve isn't bending quickly enough in Canada for May to be a realistic start to re-opening. June at the earliest for most large provinces. Minor point...Ford said no sports until August (even behind closed doors). Sad but expected! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 BC reported 50 new cases today, but that was for both Saturday and Sunday. Alberta is still reporting more than 200 cases a day, something really got out of hand somewhere. New Brunswick has had zero new cases for 9 days and PEI for 12 days in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 39 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: BC reported 50 new cases today, but that was for both Saturday and Sunday. Alberta is still reporting more than 200 cases a day, something really got out of hand somewhere. New Brunswick has had zero new cases for 9 days and PEI for 12 days in a row. Go Maritimes! Would be nice to see some parts of Canada achieve a semblance of normalcy soon. Nunavut of course has been on top of this from the get-go :P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Watching the daily federal briefing. Our R number is just above 1. 17% of cases have required hospitalization, less than 5% have required the ICU. 55% of cases are female, 45% male. 80% of cases are in Quebec and Ontario. Doubling period for cases is at 16 days. Modelling scenarios: forecasting uses actual data, real life cases, to estimate forward, dynamic modelling does not, but uses virus behaviour to predict curves. Forecasting model suggests cases by May 5 ranging from 53,196, to 66,835 Deaths 3,277 to 3,883. Federal modelling originally forecast fewer deaths because the modelling did not yet include the severe impact of outbreaks in LTC facilities, as real life numbers were used. If LTC outbreaks continue the numbers could go up again. Best case modelled scenarios show dramatic drop in cases by mid-summer, if R<1. This is first wave, several more are predicted as cases come back as controls are relaxed, but with tracking and testing should be brought under control quickly. Considering that Ontario's modelling suggested we could have 3,000 deaths by the end of April in Ontario alone (currently 951) things do look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Yeah I think the Canadian shutdown has been more effective than the modelling originally showed (certainly in terms of fatalaties). And I think ON has the right conditions in place for slowly relaxing the policy restrictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 I dunno about Quebec’s decision to start relaxing restrictions on May 4. Feels too early for a province that is seeing no noticeable decrease in new cases and easily the worst outbreak across the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Paxter said: I dunno about Quebec’s decision to start relaxing restrictions on May 4. Feels too early for a province that is seeing no noticeable decrease in new cases and easily the worst outbreak across the country. I gather it's mainly away from Montreal, the hot spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Ontario is having a good week. We were up at consistently over 500 new cases/day in the last couple of weeks. This week has been 400s and even 300s. Overall, Canada has been remarkably consistent (if a little stubbornly so!) Every day seems to bring in ~1,500 new cases, with little change since the middle of April. Let's hope that May is the month where we see recoveries > new cases for the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Just saw that yesterday was the first day of > 1,000 recoveries. Go Canada! I'm getting more hopeful that by the end of May we will have followed the likes of Germany and Austria, with a much lower number of active cases. We are currently at 28,000 actives, which has grown only slowly in the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 Triple post. But a new peak daily fatalities reached yesterday (188)...we aren't out of the woods yet I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Update Apr. 28 29 30 1 cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths BC 55 2 34 4 25 2 33 1 Albt 154 5 315 7 190 3 218 3 Sask 1 0 17 1 6 0 26 0 Man 0 0 1 0 2 0 4 0 ON 525 59 347 45 459 86 421 39 Que 775 83 837 79 944 98 1,110 163 NB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NS 15 3 20 1 12 0 12 1 PEI 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nfld 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 Nunavut 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 Totals 1526 152 1571 137 1639 189 1825 207 Playing catch-up. Poor Nunavut finally got a case, in Pond Inlet, of all places. I don't know the story. Newfoundland broke it's string of zeroes with 1 new case. Ontario had a bad day on cases one day and then a bad day for deaths. Alberta has over 900 cases associated with the Cargill meat packing plant alone. And the plant has re-opened, and employees are afraid. Quebec set records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tywin Manderly Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 7 hours ago, Fragile Bird said: Poor Nunavut finally got a case, in Pond Inlet, of all places. I don't know the story. In comparison to Canada's urban centers, Nunavut has rather limited healthcare resources. A coronavirus outbreak there could be hard to deal with for the local authorities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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