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Canadian Politics: Revenge of the small minds


maarsen

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Hoping that yesterday's data is a sign of things to come...another sad day with 43 deaths, but the gap between new cases and recoveries is narrowing. Yesterday we were up to 674 recoveries (highest so far) and 1,155 new cases (lower than the weekend's 1,500+ figures). 

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I'm getting really pissed off at nursing homes. That home in Bobcaygeon has had 26 deaths so far, out of 153 deaths in Ontario.

I just heard this morning that a nursing home in Quebec has 106 cases, so they will likely see 25 or more deaths as well.

I have been tracking the daily numbers, and in the last five days this is what they look like (doesn't include today). eta

April   2      3      4      5      6        7 

BC     55    53    29     32    31     25

AB    97   107   106    69    98     25    

ON   401  462  375  408   309   379

PQ   907  583  896   947   636   760

All others  59     63    57     47     41

BC did not report on Sunday, so I split the 63 they reported on Monday. ON no longer has any backlog. PQ looks like they did some catch-up on Friday and Saturday, clearing backlog, so perhaps the 583 on the 3rd was a bit low.

The huge number of incoming travellers has really slowed down, but now it's flights from places like Peru and India. We also had people on cruise ships return, so there may be a bump up there in the next few days.

I'm hoping the curve is bending. 

The other provinces have small numbers, except NS seems to have a hot spot. NS added 31 new cases, but that's still a small number.

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7 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

The other provinces have small numbers, except NS seems to have a hot spot. NS added 31 new cases, but that's still a small number.

Yeah, Halifax is the hot spot, but it makes sense being the largest populated area in the province. It also hit this end of the country later than the rest. Had our first recorded death today from a senior's home in Cape Breton. Pretty sad. 

Luckily, our premier has been getting tougher each day, it seems. He want from polite politician to full on frustrated, scolding dad. I don't know if all the "stay the blazes home!" memes have made it out that way yet. Very Nova Scotian!

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 (editedUpdateApril April   2      3      4      5      6        7 

April   2     3      4        5      6      7 

BC     55    53    29     32    31     25

AB    97   107   106    69    98     25    

ON   401  462  375  408   309   379

PQ   907  583  896   947   636   760 

All others  59     63    57     47     41

             1264  1469 1513 1121 1230

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8 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

I'm getting really pissed off at nursing homes. That home in Bobcaygeon has had 26 deaths so far, out of 153 deaths in Ontario.

I just heard this morning that a nursing home in Quebec has 106 cases, so they will likely see 25 or more deaths as well.

I have been tracking the daily numbers, and in the last five days this is what they look like (doesn't include today). eta

April   2      3      4      5      6        7 

BC     55    53    29     32    31     25

AB    97   107   106    69    98     25    

ON   401  462  375  408   309   379

PQ   907  583  896   947   636   760

All others  59     63    57     47     41

BC did not report on Sunday, so I split the 63 they reported on Monday. ON no longer has any backlog. PQ looks like they did some catch-up on Friday and Saturday, clearing backlog, so perhaps the 583 on the 3rd was a bit low.

The huge number of incoming travellers has really slowed down, but now it's flights from places like Peru and India. We also had people on cruise ships return, so there may be a bump up there in the next few days.

I'm hoping the curve is bending. 

The other provinces have small numbers, except NS seems to have a hot spot. NS added 31 new cases, but that's still a small number.

Nursing homes tend to hire only part time workers as they then don't have to pay benefits. The pay is also close to minimum wage so staff there tend to have multiple jobs just to earn a living. Hospitals try to do the same thing but having stronger unions to fight for full time jobs makes bit of a difference. 

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Bloody hell, Ontario's numbers are up big today, I am waiting for the Ontario press conference to see if they have a reason. I wonder if it's returned travellers, particularly cruise ship passengers.

April   2     3      4        5      6      7       8

BC     55    53    29     32    31     25     45

AB    97   107   106    69    98     25     50

ON   401  462  375  408   309   379   550

PQ   907  583  896   947   636   760   691

All others  59     63    57     47     41     57

             1264  1469 1513 1121 1230  1393

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At least Canada's overall numbers are stabilizing this week rather than rapidly increasing (like last week). Obviously it would have been nice to see even better numbers (like Western Canada seems to be getting), but I think the sheer number of Ontario/Quebec residents returning from international trips (in hot spots like France, New York, cruises) makes it very difficult. Community transmission seems low across Canada outside of aged care facilities. 

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I am watching Ford right now, and he says he's tired of seeing 3 or 4 thousand tests being done per day, when he understands Ontario now has the ability to do 13,000. He has ordered every person in a nursing home and the staff be tested, and all first responders, and more people in general. I assume it will take a few days to ramp up the numbers. The province has been able to restock their reagent supplies.

In other news, all businesses will be closed on Friday and Sunday, to give workers a break.

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14 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I am watching Ford right now, and he says he's tired of seeing 3 or 4 thousand tests being done per day, when he understands Ontario now has the ability to do 13,000. He has ordered every person in a nursing home and the staff be tested, and all first responders, and more people in general. I assume it will take a few days to ramp up the numbers. The province has been able to restock their reagent supplies.

In other news, all businesses will be closed on Friday and Sunday, to give workers a break.

How do you rate Ford's performance in this crisis so far? I haven't really paid much attention, but my instinct says probably slightly better than expected?

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1 minute ago, Paxter said:

How do you rate Ford's performance in this crisis so far? I haven't really paid much attention, but my instinct says probably slightly better than expected?

I'd say a lot better than expected. I always considered him a venal idiot. He certainly used chicanery to win the leadership race, and some of his personnel moves have been grotesque. Paying a health consultant more than a cabinet minister to criticize the health system for a few months was certainly one of them. Many of us are suspicious that, like many Conservatives, he has an agenda to privatize part of our public health care system. He also wanted to be mayor of Toronto, and it seems like now that he's premier he spends more time trying to interfere with the city than anything else. This is the guy who united the arts community against him when he was a councillor because he tried to shut down half the public libraries and their programs.

His popularity has dropped like a stone across the province. He was elected mainly because the whole province decided it didn't like the previous Liberal government, almost wiping it off the map. They don't even have enough members to be an official party anymore. I suspect that Ford has finally found an issue he's interested in in Covid-19. It seems like something so basic as, virus Bad! deaths, Bad! gave him something he could understand. 

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/06/07/news/heres-everything-doug-ford-government-cut-its-first-year-office

https://nowtoronto.com/news/doug-ford-cuts-pc-ontario-politics-queens-park/

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April   2     3      4        5      6      7       8       9

 BC     55    53    29     32    31     25     45    34

AB    97   107   106    69    98     25     50     28

ON   401  462  375  408   309   379   550   483

PQ   907  583  896   947   636   760   691   881

All others  59     63    57     47     41     57     48

             1264 1469 1513 1121 1230 1393 1474

The federal website has improved a great deal and is up to date. They are show 2 more cases, but they may be getting more information flow after the day's numbers are reported, because they state their numbers are "in the last 24 hours". Worldometers also gets some kind of different information flow, because their number yesterday was 149 higher and is 147 lower today.

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On 4/7/2020 at 11:12 AM, Fragile Bird said:

I'm getting really pissed off at nursing homes. That home in Bobcaygeon has had 26 deaths so far, out of 153 deaths in Ontario.

I just heard this morning that a nursing home in Quebec has 106 cases, so they will likely see 25 or more deaths as well.

I have been tracking the daily numbers, and in the last five days this is what they look like (doesn't include today). eta

April   2      3      4      5      6        7 

BC     55    53    29     32    31     25

AB    97   107   106    69    98     25    

ON   401  462  375  408   309   379

PQ   907  583  896   947   636   760

All others  59     63    57     47     41

BC did not report on Sunday, so I split the 63 they reported on Monday. ON no longer has any backlog. PQ looks like they did some catch-up on Friday and Saturday, clearing backlog, so perhaps the 583 on the 3rd was a bit low.

The huge number of incoming travellers has really slowed down, but now it's flights from places like Peru and India. We also had people on cruise ships return, so there may be a bump up there in the next few days.

I'm hoping the curve is bending. 

The other provinces have small numbers, except NS seems to have a hot spot. NS added 31 new cases, but that's still a small number.

This report from Dorval senior's long term "care" facility left me sobbing.  It's a horror.

https://nationalpost.com/news/local-news/public-health-police-find-bodies-feces-at-dorval-seniors-residence-sources/wcm/19011f52-7b04-41c4-a674-93bc26283749?video_autoplay=true

The suffering they endured is unconscionable and criminal.  The government and management of the facilities must be held to account. 

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6 minutes ago, LynnS said:

This report from Dorval senior's long term "care" facility left me sobbing.  It's a horror.

https://nationalpost.com/news/local-news/public-health-police-find-bodies-feces-at-dorval-seniors-residence-sources/wcm/19011f52-7b04-41c4-a674-93bc26283749?video_autoplay=true

The suffering they endured is unconscionable and criminal.  The government and management of the facilities must be held to account. 

I was watching the Ontario press conference yesterday and a reporter asked about a nursing home that had been told 10 st aff members had tested positive for Covid-19 and all the staff walked out. It seemed that neither the premier nor the health minister knew anything about it.

The priority in both provinces is long term care facilities. Quebec announced everyone in nursing homes was going to be tested, obviously they hadn’t gotten there yet. Ontario did not go that far, saying instead they were concentrating resources on reported outbreaks first.

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49 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I was watching the Ontario press conference yesterday and a reporter asked about a nursing home that had been told 10 st aff members had tested positive for Covid-19 and all the staff walked out. It seemed that neither the premier nor the health minister knew anything about it.

The priority in both provinces is long term care facilities. Quebec announced everyone in nursing homes was going to be tested, obviously they hadn’t gotten there yet. Ontario did not go that far, saying instead they were concentrating resources on reported outbreaks first.

Their anxiety and frustration level is very high since they are so understaffed.  Health care workers have been working at more than one facility because of it.  I'm convinced that this is how care facilities became epicenters.  The fact that so many workers at Bobcaygeon were also infected is a critical cause for alarm.  Neither workers or seniors have been adequately protected.   There must be a public inquiry at some point to address these issues.  There have been reports of screaming matches between workers and management.

As for infected workers walking out to press the issue;  what can you do?  Their lives are now in jeopardy and they can't be held responsible for leaving.  How can they continue to work with the elderly who are not yet infected?  The government must find replacements ASAP.  

But this is exactly what workers at Bobcaygeon did.  They stayed at their posts rather than abandon the people in their care.  This facility was the first to report an outbreak of this size.  How horrible and frightening for everyone involved.

|Yes, test everyone in long term care facilities; but do something about the level of support that is available and give them priority for medical equipment and personal protection.  One person may test negative on any one day and positive the next.  They should go with the assumption that everyone is infected or soon will be.   Long term care facilities are basically hospitals without the resources. 

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Update

April            4        5      6      7       8       9      10      11

 BC             29     32    31     25      45    34      40     35

AB            106    69    98     25      50     28      49     69

ON           375  408   309   379   550   483    478    411

PQ           896   947   636   760   691   881    765    615

The rest     63    57     47     41     57     48       51     40

              1469 1513 1121 1230 1393 1474   1383 1170

I assume the Ontario number does not reflect any increase in testing yet, which I believe starts ramping up next week. Expect a bump up in cases in both ON and PQ as people get tested in nursing homes.

eta: ON is up to 6,000 tests a day, to be 8,000 by the 15th.

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Seems like we are very much in a "stabilization" phase of this wave, with no large jumps recently. Hopefully we can start seeing the numbers actually fall in the next two weeks (at least for fatalaties/day). 

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Update

April            4        5      6      7       8       9      10      11     12

 BC             29     32    31     25      45    34      40     35       

AB            106    69    98     25      50     28      49     69      82      

ON           375  408   309   379   550   483    478    411    401

PQ           896   947   636   760   691   881    765    615    554

The rest     63    57     47     41     57     48       51     40      29

              1469 1513 1121 1230 1393 1474   1383 1170   1066

I don't know if all provinces will report today, so there may be a bump up tomorrow, or I may see more numbers in the next hour. My number is 10 higher than Worldometer, perhaps someone entered 7 instead of 17 new cases in NS.

eta: updated AB

eta 2: now Worldometers is showing 1083, but I have no idea where they are getting the extra cases. I will stick with my numbers.

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Hopefully Quebec has turned a corner and those recent data are not due to reduced testing over Easter. 900s per day down to 500 is a big deal. I think we will see a lot of cases in ON this week with the increased testing - ON had previously the lowest tests/capita of any province.

Overall I think Canada has a lot more cause for optimism in the last week or so.

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1 minute ago, Paxter said:

Hopefully Quebec has turned a corner and those recent data are not due to reduced testing over Easter. 900s per day down to 500 is a big deal. I think we will see a lot of cases in ON this week with the increased testing - ON had previously the lowest tests/capita of any province.

Overall I think Canada has a lot more cause for optimism in the last week or so.

Ontario had a small bump up, to 421, but Quebec is back up to 711.

On the other hand, Ontario has just under 3,000 ICU spaces. About 1,320 are filled with non-covid patients, and the number of Covid-19 patients in ICUs was ranging from 500 to 535, but recently has been less than 500, 466 right now, split between people who need oxygen and people who need ventilators. Hospitals across the country have been reporting that they have not seen 'the surge' everyone was worried about. Newfoundland, with 240 cases, for example, only has 8 or 9 in ICU, according to the last report I saw from Aemon Stark. They have 109 active cases, the rest are 'resolved', which means certified ok or, sadly, dead. The small provinces were of great concern at the start. Even Quebec has space. 

I am watching the Quebec press conference right now and they are talking about resuming elective surgery again in a few weeks.

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