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maarsen

Canadian Politics: Revenge of the small minds

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BC has been a laggard in testing, along with Ontario. I’d expect the spike to be due to a ramp-up.

Alberta has the best testing numbers per capita of the more populous provinces, so their new cases data is skewed higher. Not sure about the latest spike!

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What do you think of this idea for school kids?  If they are back in school in September that will be close to flu season and I'm still concerned about a second wave and third wave of corvid in the winter.

https://driving.ca/ford/auto-news/news/ford-is-testing-buzzing-wristbands-to-keep-workers-socially-distanced?utm_source=drivingcontentads&utm_medium=native_ads&utm_campaign=on_network_boosting&utm_content=Drivingflex

What I've noticed while shopping is that kids don't really know what keeping 6 ft apart means unless it's marked on the floor at checkout and that's if it been explained them or they notice at all.  Two arm lengths for a kid isn't 6 ft.   I had a little girl bumping up against me while her mother repeatedly tried to get control.  Until I turned around and pointed out the lines on the floor and told her it was a new safety rule and that's where she had to stand until her mother said it was OK.   That glued her to the spot. LOL

I haven't seen any kids in stores until recently.  I almost ran into two young boys running pell-mell up the aisles, no parent in sight.  I gave them the stink eye which slowed them down.  LOL

Kids are going to have to get out of the house into the fresh air soon and burn off some energy. 

 

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Going to do the updates differently, as we approach reintegration time.

Update

Apr.             20                    21                     22                  23             

             cases deaths   cases deaths   cases deaths  cases deaths

BC           52        5          25        1          71       3         29       4

Albt       105        4        187        2         306      5        319      2

Sask          1        0            4         0            6       0          5       0

Man          1        1            1         0            2       0          5       0

ON         606      31        551       38        510     37       634    54

Que        962      62        807     102        839     93       873   109

NB             0        0            0         0            0        0          0       0

NS            46       0           16        1           35       2         55       4

PEI             0        0            0         0             0       0          0        0

Nfld           0        0            0         0             0       0          0        0

Totals     1775   103      1591     144       1769   140    1920     173

Saskatchewan outlined it's 5 phases of re-starting their economy today. I expect BC, Man, PEI, NB and Nfld to announce their plans soon as well, plus the territories, which I haven't shown because while the Yukon had 3 new cases this week, basically nothing has happened up north and there are no deaths. Alberta only has 3,720 cases, but after doing so well they added 1988 of those cases in 9 days. 

Ontario is uncovering a record number of cases with the added testing, and it seems they are mainly nursing home cases. After being shocked that Quebec's deaths are 75% from nursing homes, today it was revealled 70% in Ontario are also nursing home deaths.

Soon I will only be doing BC, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec. And totals. This is only to watch as provinces re-open.

 

 

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As predicted - New Brunswick is starting to ease restrictions. You can now meet up with one other household, if they agree. And low risk public spaces will be re-opened. But you must continue to follow guidelines.

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58 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

As predicted - New Brunswick is starting to ease restrictions. You can now meet up with one other household, if they agree. And low risk public spaces will be re-opened. But you must continue to follow guidelines.

Makes sense. I think we're at least four weeks away from this in ON, maybe longer if they can't get the test/trace thing happening soon.

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Update

Apr.             21                    22                     23                  24             

             cases deaths   cases deaths   cases deaths  cases deaths

BC           25        1          71       3         29         4         29       4

Albt       187        2         306      5        319        2       297       5

Sask          4         0            6       0          5         0         10       0

Man          1         0            2       0          5         0          1        0

ON         551       38        510     37       634      54      640      50

Que        807     102        839     93       873    109      778      97

NB             0         0            0        0          0        0          0        0

NS            16        1           35       2         55       4         23       0

PEI             0         0            0        0          0        0          0       0

Nfld           0         0            0        0          0        0          0       0

Totals    1591     144       1769   140    1920   173     1778   156

No surprise, expanded testing in Ontario means more cases have been found, except they're mainly in nursing homes. Saskatchewan announced their re-opening plans, so of course they found 10 new cases, which they haven't had since April 8. NB announced their plans today, let's hope that doesn't happen there tomorrow as well.

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Posted (edited)

Update

Apr.             23                    24                     25                  26                 27        

             cases deaths   cases deaths   cases deaths  cases deaths  cases  deaths

BC           29         4        29        4          95        2         -          -             50      3

Albt       319        2       297        5        216        1        247        0          216      2

Sask          5         0         10        0           8        0           4         0          12        1

Man          5         0          1         0           4        0           4         0           1      0

ON         634      54      640       50        476      48        437      24       424    57     

Que        873    109      778       97        651     106       840      69       875    84

NB             0        0          0         0            0         0          0        0

NS            55       4         23         0          15        6          8         2          27      0  

PEI             0        0           0         0            0        0          0         0           0       0

Nfld           0        0           0         0            1        0          1         0

Totals      1920   173     1778    156       1466    163    1541       95       1605    147       

Playing catch-up.

Edited by Fragile Bird

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Posted (edited)

Perhaps I was premature in praising BC? They have seen a mini-spike in new cases recently and their testing rate is the lowest across all Provinces (1,397 per 100,000 people). 100 fatalities is still low though for a population of 5m. 

Ford was right to kick some ass on Ontario testing - it's now up to 1,646 per 100,000 residents. Still need to catch up with Alberta (about 3,000) and Quebec (2,377).

Edited by Paxter

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2 minutes ago, Paxter said:

Perhaps I was premature in praising BC? They have seen a mini-spike in new cases recently and their testing rate is the lowest across all Provinces (1,397 per 100,000 people). 100 fatalities is still low though for a population of 5m. 

Ford was right to kick some ass on Ontario testing - it's now up to 1,646 per 100,000 residents. Still need to catch up with Alberta (about 3,000) and Quebec (2,377).

I saw the BC press conference on Saturday. The health officer said they had found some small hotspots through surveillance testing. Don't know where, but a poultry processing plant was shut down.

Ontario is at over 12,000 tests per day, on to 14,000 by the end of the week. The health officer said he has been asking for community and nursing home numbers to be divided, but he didn't have it today. He did say the community number was close to 300, which is still too high to open places up. I think Quebec opening schools in May is too early....

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26 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I saw the BC press conference on Saturday. The health officer said they had found some small hotspots through surveillance testing. Don't know where, but a poultry processing plant was shut down.

Ontario is at over 12,000 tests per day, on to 14,000 by the end of the week. The health officer said he has been asking for community and nursing home numbers to be divided, but he didn't have it today. He did say the community number was close to 300, which is still too high to open places up. I think Quebec opening schools in May is too early....

Agreed - the curve isn't bending quickly enough in Canada for May to be a realistic start to re-opening. June at the earliest for most large provinces.

Minor point...Ford said no sports until August (even behind closed doors). Sad but expected!

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BC reported 50 new cases today, but that was for both Saturday and Sunday. Alberta is still reporting more than 200 cases a day, something really got out of hand somewhere.

New Brunswick has had zero new cases for 9 days and PEI for 12 days in a row.

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39 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

BC reported 50 new cases today, but that was for both Saturday and Sunday. Alberta is still reporting more than 200 cases a day, something really got out of hand somewhere.

New Brunswick has had zero new cases for 9 days and PEI for 12 days in a row.

Go Maritimes! Would be nice to see some parts of Canada achieve a semblance of normalcy soon. 

Nunavut of course has been on top of this from the get-go :P.

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Watching the daily federal briefing.

Our R number is just above 1.

17% of cases have required hospitalization, less than 5% have required the ICU.

55% of cases are female, 45% male. 80% of cases are in Quebec and Ontario.

Doubling period for cases is at 16 days. 

Modelling scenarios: forecasting uses actual data, real life cases, to estimate forward, dynamic modelling does not, but uses virus behaviour to predict curves.

Forecasting model suggests cases by May 5 ranging from 53,196, to 66,835 

Deaths 3,277 to 3,883. Federal modelling originally forecast fewer deaths because the modelling did not yet include the severe impact of outbreaks in LTC facilities, as real life numbers were used. If LTC outbreaks continue the numbers could go up again.

Best case modelled scenarios show dramatic drop in cases by mid-summer, if R<1. This is first wave, several more are predicted as cases come back as controls are relaxed, but with tracking and testing should be brought under control quickly.

Considering that Ontario's modelling suggested we could have 3,000 deaths by the end of April in Ontario alone (currently 951) things do look better. 

 

 

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Yeah I think the Canadian shutdown has been more effective than the modelling originally showed (certainly in terms of fatalaties). And I think ON has the right conditions in place for slowly relaxing the policy restrictions. 

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I dunno about Quebec’s decision to start relaxing restrictions on May 4. Feels too early for a province that is seeing no noticeable decrease in new cases and easily the worst outbreak across the country. 

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1 hour ago, Paxter said:

I dunno about Quebec’s decision to start relaxing restrictions on May 4. Feels too early for a province that is seeing no noticeable decrease in new cases and easily the worst outbreak across the country. 

I gather it's mainly away from Montreal, the hot spot.

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Ontario is having a good week. We were up at consistently over 500 new cases/day in the last couple of weeks. This week has been 400s and even 300s.

Overall, Canada has been remarkably consistent (if a little stubbornly so!) Every day seems to bring in ~1,500 new cases, with little change since the middle of April. Let's hope that May is the month where we see recoveries > new cases for the first time.

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Posted (edited)

Just saw that yesterday was the first day of > 1,000 recoveries. Go Canada!

I'm getting more hopeful that by the end of May we will have followed the likes of Germany and Austria, with a much lower number of active cases. We are currently at 28,000 actives, which has grown only slowly in the last week. 

Edited by Paxter

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Triple post. But a new peak daily fatalities reached yesterday (188)...we aren't out of the woods yet I guess.

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Update

Apr.             28                    29                     30                  1                         

             cases deaths   cases deaths   cases deaths  cases deaths  

BC           55        2          34       4          25       2          33       1      

Albt       154        5         315      7        190       3        218       3

Sask           1        0          17      1            6        0          26       0           

Man           0        0           1        0           2        0           4        0      

ON          525      59       347      45       459      86        421     39   

Que         775      83       837      79       944      98     1,110    163

NB             0        0          0         0            0         0          0        0

NS            15       3         20         1          12        0         12        1            

PEI             1        0           0         0            0        0          0         0   

Nfld           0        0           0         0            0        0          1         0

Nunavut     0       0           0         0            1        0          0         0

Totals     1526   152     1571     137      1639    189     1825     207

Playing catch-up.

Poor Nunavut finally got a case, in Pond Inlet, of all places. I don't know the story. Newfoundland broke it's string of zeroes with 1 new case. Ontario had a bad day on cases one day and then a bad day for deaths. Alberta has over 900 cases associated with the Cargill meat packing plant alone. And the plant has re-opened, and employees are afraid. Quebec set records.

 

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