The Ramsey's list and the true goal of the Pink Letter

[The Mother of The Others]

it's about time for us to hunker down and write our own.... letters! (for the Christmas), so it's time to settle this.  

Okay, I'll do it.

Preferred scenario:

♡   Manderly forces combine with Stannis forces , winning on the prepared field of ice- hole traps to wipe out Frey forces.   The betrayal in the woods.  Stan's northers vouch for him to the other northmen.

♡   We saw the spearwives fall, so it's tough to imagine Abel's fate was anything other than what the letter said.   If he were performing for Ramsay at the time the alarm sounded, there's a small chance Mance used the confusion to clap the ruby cuff on Ramsay and say loudly something about, "Hey this Abel singer was seen with those women, I bet he's a part of this madness, and listen to him now, raving like the madman he is!"   This could continue on into Mance writing the letter and celebrating the death of Stannis as 'Lord mRamsay.'   ...But the odds are that it's really Mance who's in the cage when Ramsay writes the letter.   Before he can write it, though,

♡  white harborists 'have to' return alone with trophies from fallen Stannis soldiers, and they have to come armed with some excuse for why Boltons should let them back in to Winterfell or trust them in any way.   Durrrr, .... blame it on the Watch!   They've declared war on Winterfell!!!   Agents of the Watch took off with Reek and Arya for the Wall (which is why Ramsay is so sure Jon has them!  "Eye witness" accounts.)   And the black brothers raided the battle vs. Stannis, coming to his defense!   It was the Watch who killed the Freys, but they were then "Taken in the Rear" (lol) by us White Harborists, who routed them.  We Harborists then chose to let the Watch get away so as to press the battle with Stannis, who totally totally died.  See?  Head and blade.   There you go.  We're your damn war heroes.  Trusted Northmen, like you, Roose and Lord Ramsay.  You had to know it wouldn't be those damn Freys who'd come through for you in the end.  This should proove once and for all we're with you, and not with the cruddy bastard of the Wall, cuz he's buds with Stan and here's a Stannis head.  So let us in why don'tcha.

♡   I just reread the chapter (damn it all!  I swore that would never happen, no matter what!) to confirm that Ramsay stayed behind when the troops left, and I think he did.  (Roose and Rams commanded Freys and Manderlies to leave, trusting neither enough to accompany them, only trusting dreadfort men inside the castle, who, i believe, are the ones Theon "didn't recognize" on the castle walls.  Theon also feared Ramsey might walk into Jeyne's quarters while they're stealing her).   So this means Ramsay is present, and yet didn't chase after Reek&Bride right away as you'd normally expect because....enemy drums were yet being heard too near the walls?   So he occupies himself with torturing spearwives and Mance instead.   Learns of the Wall's illegal op.  Is incensed.  But waits.  Unsure of how to proceed until he hears word of the battle.  The returning Manderlies find a seething anti-Wall Ramsay, and this hands them the (above) narrative they can use to destabilize Ramsay further and earn the trust of his unhinged mind. 

 [A Fresh Curiosity- - - when Mance was stripped for flaying, wouldn't the glamor have been revealed?  How come more wasn't made of that in the letter?   As if it went unnoticed, almost.   Or is a secret being protected still...   By Ramsay? who may hope to use it to become Roose?!?!  By Mance?, who has the upper hand in Winterfell now!?!?  Not likely, but possibilities nonetheless. ]

♡  Ramsay now has the heads of "enemies" adorning Winterfell just as he claimed in the letter, and the magic sword (worthless, Stannis now knows).  It's the story of the returning 'victors' that inflames Ramsay to write the letter.  Roose strongly objects, they argue.   (Does the sending of the letter imply Roose is dead?  Not necessarily, but that'd be a nifty bonus.  And if Roose leaves in a huff for the Dreadfort, that'd probably be the death of him at this point thanks to enemies outside the castle.)   So... Roose doesn't "like" this letter ploy but perhaps consents to it because it does poison Jon's position there, and the Wall's harboring of rebels needs to be addressed, and they "know" agents of Jon took Arya directly into their custody.  So Roose says okay son we'll do this your hotheaded way.

♡  Ramsey's bird is shot down by Stannis troops secretly surrounding the winterfell grounds in a 'Soft- seige.'  It is read and the northerners are amazed.  (Stannis maybe didn't know about Mance?   Ultimately who cares, but if he only discovers Jon's and Mel's ploy to use Mance now, that may provide Stan with fresh motive to repay Jon and Melisandre with some deception of his own, in that finger- taking way he dispenses justice, you know?  )    Stannis re-sends (rebirds?) the letter and forwards it on to Jon, perhaps with altered phrasing in keeping with people's Stannis-Wrote-It theories.   

♡  The White Harbor guys open the gates for the Stannis guys and take the castle, perhaps with a wiley Roose beating it back to the Dreadfort so he can call forth the Others as his revenge upon the North.  (Finish big!)   We end with Stannis and Mance glaring at each other, soap opera style, for a solid minute.   Then, Stannis delivers the line that's heard like an incendiary fart the world round:  "I'm having trouble finding anyone to accept the title of Lord of Winterfell.   If this ruby can make you look like Jon Snow, ......would you take the job?"

There.  That should make everyone happy.  And no one.  Which is the hallmark of great writing.    Well, it's nice to finally have this pink letter business solved.   My gift to the world.  Merry Christmas, all, and to all a.....ooh! , Doctor Strange is on TNT.  Sweet!

[three-eyed monkey]

5 hours ago, The Mother of The Others said:

 I just reread the chapter (damn it all!  I swore that would never happen, no matter what!) to confirm that Ramsay stayed behind when the troops left, and I think he did.  (Roose and Rams commanded Freys and Manderlies to leave, trusting neither enough to accompany them, only trusting dreadfort men inside the castle, who, i believe, are the ones Theon "didn't recognize" on the castle walls.  Theon also feared Ramsey might walk into Jeyne's quarters while they're stealing her).   So this means Ramsay is present, and yet didn't chase after Reek&Bride right away as you'd normally expect because....enemy drums were yet being heard too near the walls? 

It is not confirmed if Ramsay stayed at Winterfell or joined the hunt, simply because we lost our pov in Winterfell when Theon jumped from the walls.

Roose had received the raven from Tybald reporting Stannis position, and the Freys and Manderlys were ordered out. Roose believes the Karstarks are his. There is no need for Ramsay to go at this stage, it is smarter to stay.

Before Theon and the women go to get fArya, Myrtle warns them that the yard is full of northmen and they mean to ride out. Ramsay is still in the castle so Theon's fear that he might walk in on them is well grounded.

The rescue is carried out and Theon jumps from the walls. Crowfood's men find them. Theon later recalls the Freys riding out, which makes perfect sense as they were already preparing to ride out and would naturally be ready to go first, and falling into Crowfood's pits. After that Theon and Jeyne are brought to Stannis camp, 3 days from Winterfell. How far behind their pursuers are is hard to tell, but Theon suggests, based on what he has seen, that Crowfood's boys won't hold them long. Theon tells Stannis that the Freys and Manderlys will be behind them, because that's what he heard in hall at Winterfell. He also believes that Ramsay is coming too, because he knows Ramsay and he points out Ramsay's motive to come. "He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek."

The Boltons believed the horns outside the walls belonged to Stannis, and they also know where Stannis camp is thanks to Tybald's map, so it is the obvious place to go to get Theon and Jeyne back. Their first foray out, presumably when Theon was still within sight of the gates of Winterfell, was curtailed but the next will be more cautious and I think Theon's belief that Crowfood won't hold them long has merit. So the Freys, Manderlys, or whoever is coming with the intention of finishing Stannis and retrieving Ramsay's bride and Reek in the one fell swoop, will not be far behind.

So the key question is this, after Theon and Jeyne jumped, what did Ramsay do? Did he stay in Winterfell and leave their retrieval to the Freys and Manderlys? Or did he ride out with them, as Theon thinks?

As I said, there is no confirmation either way as we no longer have a pov in Winterfell, but we know it has to be one or the other. He stays or he goes. And the only grounds on which we can safely speculate is Ramsay's character, and Ramsay's situation, both of which in my opinion, point towards him riding out.

Ramsay has clearly been characterized as someone who likes to hunt people through the woods. You might say he is also characterized as someone who writes letters but I think most readers would agree on which he prefers.

Ramsay's situation is that he just lost his bride and his Reek, and he has a pretty good idea where he will find them. We know Ramsay is invested in Reek for rather sick reasons. He broke Reek down to less than a man, and now it seems he has just been outsmarted by him. What does that say about Ramsay to be bettered by less than a man. He can't even stand being called a bastard because he can't own it like Tyrion advises Jon. This will not sit well with him. His motive to get Reek back would be stronger than his motive to retrieve his bride, which obviously has it's own added political significance.

So I think the chance of Ramsay riding out is quite high, and as a result the chance of him sending the letter is low unless he defeats Stannis and returns to Winterfell first.

 

[The Mother of The Others]

Leaving us with the reported death of Davos to hold onto as hope of something similar for Stannis.  All the while knowing what George likes to do to hopes.   Davos living might be but a setup to play with our expectations only to then see things go the other way for Stan.  Hell of a way to go out for the rightful king.  Offhand dismissal.  If the letter is true, why even revisit that battle in a pointless pisser of a POV in the next book.   That would negate the letter's time saving benefits.   So if we do get the battle, that makes the letter merely a cliffhanger  (which it was used as) and one can expect the battle to go differently in the Part II conclusion.

Ramsay was just attacked in his new home by enemy agents.  It would be tough for him not to ride out after Reek&Bride, he'd be wringing his hands and would perhaps require restraining by Roose, but I believe Ramsay's first duty is to secure Winterfell and determine the full extent of the threat before he rides out into a trap of some kind.  He'd sense that possibility of a trap gathering, he'd want to know how concerted this escape was with the drummers outside the castle, to find out what else he's facing.  He'd lay into the spearwives with a hot poker, knife, whatever.  New people to torture would soften the loss of Reek for a hot minute.  And if Roose vetoes Ramsay's rideout wish, not wanting to risk his lordly son for a fake trumped up Arya, that'd leave Ramsay fuming enough to do some deeply unwise drunk dialing to Jon.  

Also, a quick shoutout to Braavos.  My love affair with Braavos continues unabaited.  Now that Tycho is onboard with Stan, we may see some very innovative aid rendered to the Stag by the Titan.   Some game changing idea, strategy, mage-ish concealment, who knows.

[Nevets]

9 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

So the key question is this, after Theon and Jeyne jumped, what did Ramsay do? Did he stay in Winterfell and leave their retrieval to the Freys and Manderlys? Or did he ride out with them, as Theon thinks?

As I said, there is no confirmation either way as we no longer have a pov in Winterfell, but we know it has to be one or the other. He stays or he goes. And the only grounds on which we can safely speculate is Ramsay's character, and Ramsay's situation, both of which in my opinion, point towards him riding out.

If Ramsay goes riding out,before or after he tortures spearwives, etc., he is going to pretty quickly figure out where Jeyne and Theon are headed - Stannis's camp.  He would have no reason to expect that they have moved on from there.  And if they are at Stannis's camp, the only way he is going to get them back is to defeat Stannis.  If indeed he did - or thinks he did - he will discover that Jeyne is on her way to the Wall, and probably has a several day head start, and is accompanied by a small escort.  That means she will probably survive; be riding fast; and probably arrive at the Wall well before Ramsay can catch her. 

If he can't catch up to her, returning to Winterfell is probably his best option.  Then he can threaten Jon and whatnot. Hence the demand for FArya's return, and the implied threat to expose Jon's misdeeds (whether or not the letter was intended for general consumption is unclear).  I expect Jeyne to arrive shortly after the attack on Jon.

It's possible that Stannis will use the confusion of his apparent defeat to somehow take Winterfell, possibly through a false flag maneuver (a lot easier if your opponent thinks he has won) or an ambush on the way back to Winterfell.  A siege is also possible.

[Quoth the raven,]

On 11/26/2018 at 10:21 AM, lalt said:

The author may know that Jon broke his vow the first time around (with Ygritte and when Quorin asked him to infiltrate the FF) only if he/she is a man of the NW or Mance. Mance however, knows also that Jon never turned his cloack for real. That he didn't accept Stannis's proposal. How it's hard to convince him to do so. That he believes to be a man of the NW, period. So does Stannis, so does Mel.

The rest of the people south of the Wall know nothing about it. As far as they know he never did that.

More importantly the question is - imo - if Jon will ever leave CB personally and with an army, to fight too.
That's huge.

And that - imo - is what the author really wants.

And there's no sign he'll ever do that. In fact, he sent Mance to help his sister. In fact Melisandre believes Jon won't ever leave the wall personally, only to go and catch his sister (ADWD, Melisandre) and Mance is forced to agree with that when she points it out. 

But sure, the author knows that Jon saved Mance's life, so he may try once again.  And in fact - imo - the PL informs Jon that Mance is "still alive" but hold in cage waiting to die.... a further invitation to hurry up. 

 

I was not talking about Jon's infiltration of the Wildlings.  What I consider his oathbreakings are letting Mance off the hook for his crimes, for his own personal benefit.  He needed Mance to commit an illegal act on his behalf.  Ordering one of your brothers to get your sister for the purposes of hiding her from her husband is unacceptable conduct for a lord commander of the night watch.  Jon violated his oaths when he did that.  Ramsay would obviously know this because he captured Mance Rayder.  He forced Mance to talk.  Ramsay is good at torture.  Even a tough guy like Mance will break.  Mance sings and Jon's treason is revealed.  

[kissdbyfire]

2 hours ago, Quoth the raven, said:

I was not talking about Jon's infiltration of the Wildlings.  What I consider his oathbreakings are letting Mance off the hook for his crimes, for his own personal benefit. 

Only that didn’t happen. Like, at all? 

Let’s see...

Stannis condemns Mance to death. Then“Mance” is brought before all in CB and and thrown into a bonfire. Jon commands the crows to finish him off and the black brothers do it. Then, later, Mel reveals to Jon that Mance is alive and that it was Rattleshirt who died. 

Quote

He needed Mance to commit an illegal act on his behalf.  Ordering one of your brothers to get your sister for the purposes of hiding her from her husband is unacceptable conduct for a lord commander of the night watch. 

Jon didn’t order Mance to do anything, and he most certainly and definitely didn’t order Mance to go to Winterfell. We do have the character’s thoughts on all of this, actually. So either you are saying Jon is lying to himself, or you need to re-read (yes, I’m being nice). 

Furthermore, anyone who does anything to prevent a sick psycho from harming anyone else is a hero in my book, and fuck what the law says. I think that’s probably one reason Martin said what he said about Jon. 

ETA: forgot the quote by Martin:

He won’t go so far as to relate the events in his books to today’s politics, but he hopes that Westeros offers us lessons, including the ways that power can corrupt. “Maybe some kid who is reading it now…will be a president or senator, and the lessons of Westeros will have been incorporated into his worldview and affect some decision he makes 20 or 30 years from now.” Then he pauses to think. “It depends on who he models himself on, Jon Snow or a new Joffrey,” citing a noble hero and a sadistic boy king. “We don’t need anyone modeling themselves after Joffrey.”

 

[three-eyed monkey]

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

If Ramsay goes riding out,before or after he tortures spearwives, etc., he is going to pretty quickly figure out where Jeyne and Theon are headed - Stannis's camp.  He would have no reason to expect that they have moved on from there.  And if they are at Stannis's camp, the only way he is going to get them back is to defeat Stannis. 

That's pretty more or less what I said. So we agree on that much.

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

If indeed he did - or thinks he did - he will discover that Jeyne is on her way to the Wall, and probably has a several day head start, and is accompanied by a small escort.  That means she will probably survive; be riding fast; and probably arrive at the Wall well before Ramsay can catch her. 

If Ramsay rides out with the Freys and Manderlys, then I imagine they will not be far behind Jeyne and Theon as Crowfood's boys are unlikely to delay them long. Jeyne had not yet left Stannis' camp in Theon I and they were expecting the enemy to be on them at any time. So there is nothing to suggest that Jeyne will have a lead of several days. Her lead will be determined by how long ahead of the battle she leaves, plus how long the battle lasts.

As I said, I find seven days of battle to be highly unlikely given the condition of Stannis' army, who are freezing and starving to death at an ever increasing rate. 80 a day when last we heard.

And, if Ramsay rides out he will also know the outcome of the battle, as he will be present. I can't see how he would lose but think he has won if he is there to witness the battle himself.

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

If he can't catch up to her, returning to Winterfell is probably his best option.  Then he can threaten Jon and whatnot. Hence the demand for FArya's return, and the implied threat to expose Jon's misdeeds (whether or not the letter was intended for general consumption is unclear).  I expect Jeyne to arrive shortly after the attack on Jon. 

This all assumes that Ramsay does win the Battle of Ice, of course, and that GRRM spoiled the battle in the Pink Letter before we get to witness it through Asha or Theon's pov. Again, this doesn't make sense. I think getting the result of the battle before we see it means, like Davos' head and hands on the walls of White Harbor, it is almost certainly misdirection.

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

It's possible that Stannis will use the confusion of his apparent defeat to somehow take Winterfell, possibly through a false flag maneuver (a lot easier if your opponent thinks he has won) or an ambush on the way back to Winterfell.  A siege is also possible.

Firstly, Stannis is not in a position to besiege Winterfell. As he said, the Boltons only had to sit inside their walls and wait for him to starve but instead they blundered and sent out a portion of their strength against him. Stannis needs to defeat the Freys and then use a trick to get inside the castle quickly.

Tybald's ravens are the obvious means of deception, as they fly to Winterfell and Roose has no reason to think Tybald has been rumbled. Plus Stannis has the Karstarks, who the Bolton's believe belong to them. He may well have the Manderlys too, that remains to be seen. This all points to him sending news of victory to Roose at Winterfell and gain entrance to the castle under the cover of returning Manderly and Karstark troops, with Stannis' own men possibly disguised as Freys. As you accept, a lot easier when your opponent thinks you won.

[Maia]

On 10 December 2018 at 2:31 AM, three-eyed monkey said:

If Ramsay rides out with the Freys and Manderlys,

If he does so without a significant number of Bolton troops at his back, he is a dead man, however. Both families have good reasons to want him gone - Freys because he is a danger to Walda and her future children, as Roose openly tells people, and Mandelies because of the horrible murder of Lady Hornwood, who was one of them by birth. Not to mention due to his general repulsive monstrousness. But Roose wants to keep all his reliable Dreadfort men close. Is Ramsey stupid enough to not realise his peril and ride out just with his "bastard's boys"? Is he enough of a liability to Roose by now for his father to allow it?

And then, of course, there was a distinct possibility that FArya's escape was engineered by somebody who wasn't in cahoots with Stannis and that she might be headed somewhere else - so it made sense to question the captives before haring  off. Some of the spearwives may have escaped too, and led the pursuit astray.

Your main argument seems to be that both Stannis and Ramsey can't be alive at the conclusion of the Battle of Ice - but it is entirely possible for this to be the case. IIRC Stannis's scouts even reported on the approaching force and mentioned only Frey and Manderly men -  no Boltons. Ergo no Ramsey at the Battle of the Lake.

On 10 December 2018 at 2:31 AM, three-eyed monkey said:

As I said, I find seven days of battle to be highly unlikely given the condition of Stannis' army, who are freezing and starving to death at an ever increasing rate. 

As I mentioned previously, "seven days" must include travel time to the lake and back (3 days one way) with some harrying by Umber's boys on the way there and allegedly back (but not really, because the survivors are all secretly on the same side - Stannis's). They must have brought Stannis's unique sword and some bald guy's head back to Winterfell as "proof" of his death.

On 10 December 2018 at 2:31 AM, three-eyed monkey said:

Stannis needs to defeat the Freys and then use a trick to get inside the castle quickly.

Yes, indeed. I wholly agree with you about Stannis's ruse to enter Winterfell. 

I completely disagree that he is idiotic and irresponsible enough to engineer a desertion of LC of NW and cause chaos among the brotherhood when the Weeper and the Others are knocking at the door. Nor is he foolish enough to think that the northern lords are going to embrace said deserter with open arms and be loyal to him - even less so if the marauding wildlings and/or the Others get in because his desertion threw the Watch's command structure in disarray.

[three-eyed monkey]

11 minutes ago, Maia said:

If he does so without a significant number of Bolton troops at his back, he is a dead man, however. Both families have good reasons to want him gone - Freys because he is a danger to Walda and her future children, as Roose openly tells people, and Mandelies because of the horrible murder of Lady Hornwood, who was one of them by birth. Not to mention due to his general repulsive monstrousness. But Roose wants to keep all his reliable Dreadfort men close. Is Ramsey stupid enough to not realise his peril and ride out just with his "bastard's boys"? Is he enough of a liability to Roose by now for his father to allow it?

I'm just agreeing with what Theon said on this subject, which is based on Ramsay's character. I think it's a valid reason.

17 minutes ago, Maia said:

And then, of course, there was a distinct possibility that FArya's escape was engineered by somebody who wasn't in cahoots with Stannis and that she might be headed somewhere else - so it made sense to question the captives before haring  off. Some of the spearwives may have escaped too, and led the pursuit astray.

The best way to get her back is by pursuing her immediately. Captives can still be questioned by Roose, no need for Ramsay.

 

20 minutes ago, Maia said:

Your main argument seems to be that both Stannis and Ramsey can't be alive at the conclusion of the Battle of Ice - but it is entirely possible for this to be the case. IIRC Stannis's scouts even reported on the approaching force and mentioned only Frey and Manderly men -  no Boltons. Ergo no Ramsey at the Battle of the Lake.

You misread my argument. I'm saying that I find it a more compelling case that Ramsay rode out rather than stayed. If he did ride out then he cannot be in a position to receive a raven with false information from Tybald without first returning to Winterfell, and having been present at the battle would know the true outcome of the battle anyway.

I'm not sure what passage you are referring to about Stannis scouts?

30 minutes ago, Maia said:

As I mentioned previously, "seven days" must include travel time to the lake and back (3 days one way) with some harrying by Umber's boys on the way there and allegedly back (but not really, because the survivors are all secretly on the same side - Stannis's). They must have brought Stannis's unique sword and some bald guy's head back to Winterfell as "proof" of his death.

That is a very loose interpretation of seven days of battle. You even point to the flaw in your own reasoning so no need to add anything else.

Plus why would Stannis just send his sword and some bald guys head into Winterfell. His best, and perhaps only, chance to get inside the gates is to enter with the returning army after Tybald's message of victory.

I find it far more likely that the lines, I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore, was written to alert Mel to the fact that the letter is a lie, as it conflicts with her own visions, as she has sworn to Stannis that she has seen him standing against the dark with Lightbringer raised, which obviously would not transpire if Stannis was dead and Ramsay had his sword.

43 minutes ago, Maia said:

Yes, indeed. I wholly agree with you about Stannis's ruse to enter Winterfell. 

Not fully it seems because you're talking about sending his sword and a bald guys head into Winterfell, and I'm talking about getting Stannis and his army inside the walls.

45 minutes ago, Maia said:

I completely disagree that he is idiotic and irresponsible enough to engineer a desertion of LC of NW and cause chaos among the brotherhood when the Weeper and the Others are knocking at the door. Nor is he foolish enough to think that the northern lords are going to embrace said deserter with open arms and be loyal to him - even less so if the marauding wildlings and/or the Others get in because his desertion threw the Watch's command structure in disarray.

Jon leaving the Wall would cause some confusion, but not necessarily chaos. The Wall is still there. The Watch is still there. There is a command structure, including an experienced Lord Steward, to maintain order. The Watch have survived the departure and death of Lord Commanders before. Stannis would have weighed that risk of course, but the potential reward was worth the risk in his eyes.

[Mon ami]

On 12/4/2018 at 4:38 AM, lalt said:

@Empress Daenerys Targaryen good points. But... if you want to defend the Wall and what stands south of the Wall from the WWs, then a North unified is important as well. So is the Stark name to lead the North and to gather all the streght needed.

That is - if I remember correctly - Quorin's reasoning when he talks to Mormont.
He says that they need the Starks. And he says that believing that the problem is not only Mance, but the WWs too.

I remeber a conversation like that, not sure if it is between those two... but either way, that's the point.
Stannis can see that too.

And Mance is clever enough to understand/hope that Jon may be not only the one who puts together the North, but the North and the FF.

But then again... yours are surely interesting, fair points.

Mormont told Jon in crystal clear terms.  It matters not who rules when the white walkers come.  It doesn't matter who leads the north.  Roose Bolton is more able than Jon Snow.  It's very silly to think Jon is capable of uniting the north when he can't even unite the watch and the wildlings.  I know they did that on Hbo's show but that's a bone they threw to keep Jon's fans happy.  It makes no sense for that to happen in the books.  I doubt it will happen in the books.  

[dialt]

1 hour ago, Penny's Got a Gun said:

Mormont told Jon in crystal clear terms.  It matters not who rules when the white walkers come.  It doesn't matter who leads the north.  Roose Bolton is more able than Jon Snow.  It's very silly to think Jon is capable of uniting the north when he can't even unite the watch and the wildlings.  I know they did that on Hbo's show but that's a bone they threw to keep Jon's fans happy.  It makes no sense for that to happen in the books.  I doubt it will happen in the books.  

I call myself I fan of the books serie that enjoys the tv show.

Beside that, in that discussion you've quoted I wasn't try to predict if Jon will be able or not to do some things, but if some characters in universe believe he can. 

That said, in both books and TV show, Stannis at least believed he is.
And there are tons of very well thought "theories" - that may or may not turn outto be correct, but still well thought - of books (not of tv show) fans that point to the idea that Mance did it as well. Etc.... That said, you are entitled of your own opinion... whatever kind of fan you are and whoever you rooth for (if you do).
I'll be pleased to read your arguments, books not bias based, next time I suppose.

[Aegon VII]

On 11/19/2018 at 1:17 PM, lalt said:

Snip.

Yeah I think you got a lot of this right. I talk about it more in my theory,

 but we have an example where mance sees exactly how Jon responds to the threat of his sister in danger. After they spar in the yard Jon receives the wedding invitation from Ramsay and goes speechless, so mance knows it affects him. This would also be when mance could pick up the pink wax.

[bemused]

I just discovered that I had an unfinished post saved from weeks ago (before life called me away). I'm just going to put up most of it as is and then continue.

I'll come at this backwards... I think a letter appearing to be from Ramsay was received at CB for Jon while he was with Selyse. If Clydas is not to be trusted, it went straight to Bowen... if he is to be trusted, he maybe left it in Jon's solar, only to have it purloined by Mully and delivered to Bowen, (As three eyed monkey suggested)    ... Side note: IMO, Thorne is already back at CB, hiding in the wormways and directing the conspirators - probably from the very same cell that Sam found in the book vaults in AFFC - either way, Bowen then takes the letter to Thorne.

I think the conspirators would accept what was written as fact, but forge it anew, adding extra inflammatory language (including all the "bastard"s) intending to goad Jon into going south with the NW. This would bolster their claims of treason , which (along with their declaration of "For the watch") they hope will win exoneration for themselves when they kill Jon. They would have parchment and ink at their disposal but would have to reuse wax from the seal.

Language used, short version : Ramsay hates being called a bastard himself but I don't think there's an example of him taunting anyone else with it.. He tells Theon to look after his horse in Barrowton, adding.. "I rode the bastard hard", but IIRC from past searches, that's the only example I found, and it shows no animosity toward the horse.

It's Thorne who has used "bastard" repeatedly to Jon in the same sneering, insulting way used in the letter. ... Even when Mance used it to try to give Jon a clue to his identity, it never read quite so much like a curse, to me.

Red Witch / Red Whore - again, we can see that "red witch" is not exclusive to Mance, but is probably fairly common since it's in use in White Harbour (and used by a high born lady) ...  "Red whore" is seen nowhere else but in the PL, but the clue is in how it's used ... Ramsay doesn't even use "whore" in his furious rant against Lady Dustin, who he despises.

But Thorne calls Ygritte "this unwashed whore" (with a smirk). Though used at different times for different women, both the PL's Red whore and Thorne's unwashed whore are used as insults to provoke Jon, not the women themselves. I think these examples come from the same vindictive source.

Signing, "Trueborn Lord of Winterfell" is just one last way of calling Jon "bastard". In the other letters from Ramsay that we see, Ramsay Bolton, Lord of the Hornwood, e.g., has been enough to make a point of his legitimacy (even he doesn't add the redundant "trueborn", previously) .... But if Thorne has had input in the letter, I don't think he could resist getting in one last barb.

The conspirators would also love to be rid of Selyse, Shireen, Mel, et all (don't want to feed them & want to please KL), so I think it's an open question whether the original letter even asked for them. 

What does/would Stannis want if he wrote the original letter? 

Yes, he always wanted to install Jon in Winterfell, but with Jon's continuing refusal, he'd settle for another northman. Mainly, he wants a Lord of Winterfell indebted to him for the position. In his letter to Jon from Moat Cailin he says... 

Quote

Roose Bolton moves toward Winterfell with all his power, there to wed his bastard to your half sister. He must not be allowed to restore the castle to its former strength. We march against him. Arnolf Karstark and Mors Umber will join us. I will save your sister if I can, and find a better match for her than Ramsay Snow. You and your brothers must hold the Wall until I can return. ...Jon VII

I don't think he would change his mind about wanting Jon at the Wall. He plans to return (no doubt to wait for the outcome of Massey's trip) and he sees Jon as the best and most trustworthy leader to have at the Wall - to protect his interests.

Even though Jon is unwilling to be Stannis' man in WF, even with Arnolf and his offspring busted, Stannis still wouldn't want Roose (or Ramsay) to restore WF to it's former strength. Stannis still wants possession of the castle. 

I'll note here that I don't think Stannis has any ravens with him because Jon doesn't hear from him until he reaches Moat Cailin and hasn't heard since. It's very possible Lady Glover is in short supply of CB ravens - she's been under occupation, and there's been a crisis or two at the Wall. (Regular deliveries of ravens from the watch interrupted.)

I think Stannis is restricted to using Tybald's ravens, but since they are definitely behaving as if possessed, I feel sure one could be steered to Castle Black by BR or Bran. I say this taking a few things into consideration, such as whether Ramsay leaves WF...

On 12/11/2018 at 9:01 AM, three-eyed monkey said:

I'm just agreeing with what Theon said on this subject, which is based on Ramsay's character. I think it's a valid reason.

Yes, I too feel sure we can trust Theon's judgement in this.

We also have to consider what Roose is likely to do. He always tries to conserve his own men, but it's imperative to keep Jeyne and even Theon from falling into other hands. Since he doesn't fully trust the other houses with him in WF, I think he would make the best of a bad situation and send Ramsay and some Bolton men out after them, still retaining the greater part of  his men in WF. I don't think he would send them out  immediately with the Freys and Manderlies . I think he'd hold Ramsay back, maybe by as much as a day, letting the Freys and Manderlies take the brunt of battle along with the Karstarks.

Ramsay could well arrive to find Stannis supposedly dead, his corpse and his sword in apparently Bolton-friendly hands. In such a case, he would light out immediately after his bride and his Reek. ... We've already seen Ramsay be fooled by Roose's use of a body double dressed in his armour when Roose returned. Foreshadowing?

Coming back to the OP's list ... I don't think Stannis would ask for Selyse, Mel, etc. unless he had taken WF first ... but at the same time, I don't think he would wait the 3 days to get to WF before trying to alert Jon. If Ramsay pursues Jeyne and Theon, that also would put Tycho and Stannis' loan at risk. If Stannis thought there was even a slight chance that he could send one of Tybald's ravens to Jon, he would take it, but he'd have to keep up the ruse of his death in case the raven went to Roose.

Although Stannis, personally, has not been truly converted to belief in R'hlorr, through Mel , he has been brought to realise that magic exists, and he hasn't shied away from using it in his own interest. I think he would now be open to magic from another source and equally open to taking advantage of it's use.

GRRM has laid a lot of groundwork for some dramatic magic-based occurrence at the tree on the island and kept Asha's POV with Stannis to provide a fully rational account.

I project that Stannis will send one of Tybald's ravens to Jon as soon as Ramsay has left the scene of the battle in pursuit of his bride and his Reek.

On 12/11/2018 at 7:34 AM, Maia said:

IIRC Stannis's scouts even reported on the approaching force and mentioned only Frey and Manderly men -  no Boltons. Ergo no Ramsey at the Battle of the Lake.

Quote

As I said, I find seven days of battle to be highly unlikely given the condition of Stannis' army, who are freezing and starving to death at an ever increasing rate. 

As I mentioned previously, "seven days" must include travel time to the lake and back (3 days one way) with some harrying by Umber's boys on the way there and allegedly back (but not really, because the survivors are all secretly on the same side - Stannis's). They must have brought Stannis's unique sword and some bald guy's head back to Winterfell as "proof" of his death.

Stannis' information on the approaching forces comes from Theon and Tycho, not scouts....

Spoiler

 

"The castle was too crowded. Men were at each other's throats, the Manderlys and Freys especially. It's them his lordship's sent after you, the ones that he's well rid of."

<snip>

"Frey and Manderly will never combine their strengths. They will come for you, but separately. Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek." Theon's laugh was half a titter, half a whimper. "Lord Ramsay is the one Your Grace should fear."

<snip>

The king gave the bird an irritated look. "That Braavosi banker claimed Ser Aenys Frey is dead. Did some boy do that?" "Twenty green boys, with spades," Theon told him. ,,<snip> .. Crowfood set his boys to digging pits outside the castle gates, then blew his horn to lure Lord Bolton out. Instead he got the Freys. The snow had covered up the pits, so they rode right into them. Aenys broke his neck, I heard, but Ser Hosteen only lost a horse, more's the pity. He will be angry now."

 

I think too much attention has been paid to trying to interpret the "seven days of battle" - and I include myself in this. Even quite recently I thought it must be some kind of clue as to how long "Arya" had been on her way or something like that. .. No mas. I've given up...

There would be no point in including travel time from WF to the battle and back, since Jon has no way of knowing Stannis' location. Even before the weather took such a nasty turn, Jon pointed out to Stannis that a siege wouldn't work, so it can't refer to a siege with daily forays.

Medieval battles in our world lasted hours, not days... there are some exceptions.. say if it's a series of skirmishes over days between two armies in the countryside ending in a final battle (but still described as a battle in our history), or one army trailing and harrying another before finishing them off ( a running battle, I guess) ... but Jon would know these sorts of things couldn't be the case. ... So I think the whole point of "seven days of battle" (if written by Stannis) is to make a claim so unbelievable that it casts serious doubt on some other claims as well  - such as Stannis' death,e.g. (and the letter does specifically urge Jon to ask Mel about it). The most important thing is , Ramsay doesn't have "Arya" and wants her back, which I agree Ramsay would never tell Jon ... and he wouldn't forewarn Jon that he might attack CB to retrieve her.  So... the next most important thing (or equally important) is Jon needs to take steps to defend CB from the south. 

We know from Jon's previous musings that the best way to do that is preemptively strike the attackers on their way. 

[three-eyed monkey]

On 1/27/2019 at 7:15 AM, bemused said:

Side note: IMO, Thorne is already back at CB, hiding in the wormways and directing the conspirators - probably from the very same cell that Sam found in the book vaults in AFFC - either way, Bowen then takes the letter to Thorne.

Hello Bemused. I don't have time just now to reply to everything in your post, and there is much we agree on, but I would like to pick out a few key points.

I agree that Thorne is back at Castle Black and an active part of the conspiracy against Jon, and I agree that the letter was read by the conspirators before it was given to Jon, and I think the "smear" of pink wax as opposed to a button is evidence of that. However, for them to forge it anew is an unnecessary complication in an already complicated situation.

On 1/27/2019 at 7:15 AM, bemused said:

It's Thorne who has used "bastard" repeatedly to Jon in the same sneering, insulting way used in the letter. ... Even when Mance used it to try to give Jon a clue to his identity, it never read quite so much like a curse, to me.

Mance too calls Jon bastard quite a lot. But regardless of that, bastard is used not just as an insulting taunt but for far more strategic reasons. A big part of the underlying strategy of the letter is to highlight that Jon remains a bastard while the bastard of Bolton is legitimized and now holds Jon's father's seat.

On 1/27/2019 at 7:15 AM, bemused said:

Red Witch / Red Whore - again, we can see that "red witch" is not exclusive to Mance, but is probably fairly common since it's in use in White Harbour (and used by a high born lady) ...  "Red whore" is seen nowhere else but in the PL, but the clue is in how it's used ... Ramsay doesn't even use "whore" in his furious rant against Lady Dustin, who he despises.

"I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore."

This line is one of the biggest clues that the letter is from Stannis. Stannis told Davos that Mel has sworn to him that she has seen him standing against the darkness with lightbringer. This line is clear indicator to Mel that the letter is false, as it contradicts what R'hllor has shown her in her fires. Mel's reading of the vision is not quite right, as we the readers know, but this is how Stannis sees it.

On 1/27/2019 at 7:15 AM, bemused said:

Signing, "Trueborn Lord of Winterfell" is just one last way of calling Jon "bastard". In the other letters from Ramsay that we see, Ramsay Bolton, Lord of the Hornwood, e.g., has been enough to make a point of his legitimacy (even he doesn't add the redundant "trueborn", previously) ....

"Trueborn Lord of Winterfell" is how Ramsay signed his letter to Deepwood Motte, which Stannis later read when he took the castle from Asha. I agree that it is again part of the strategy to compel Jon to act against Ramsay and return Winterfell to the line of Eddard Stark. Given that Stannis has already seen a letter from Ramsay signed this way, and that Jon was not happy when Stannis told him that Winterfell would go to a Karstark, then it is not hard to see how Stannis would consider this the perfect signature to inflame Jon while still look to be genuinely from Ramsay.

This is not the only example of how Stannis uses what little he knows of Ramsay to make the letter look genuine. "I want my bride. And I want my Reek," is what Theon, who knows Ramsay well, identifies as Ramsay's motive. If that is what Theon thinks Ramsay would want then it makes sense to quote Theon practically word-for-word in the letter in an effort to make it seem genuinely from Ramsay. It makes most sense for Stannis to use these words.

However, if we come to the cloak of skins, then it makes most sense for Mance to use that line, as he was in the hall at Winterfell when Ramsay said something very similar to Walder Frey. "What man?" Ramsay demanded. "Give me his name. Point him out to me, boy, and I will make you a cloak of his skin." Just as Stannis uses the signature and quotes Theon to make the letter seem genuine, Mance adds what he has observed from Ramsay for the same reason.

To me this indicates that both Stannis and Mance were involved, and that means that their collaboration almost certainly took place in Winterfell, after Stannis takes the castle, which he will do using the Karstarks as has been foreshadowed. Tybald does note that his ravens are trained for Winterfell, and I believe him, but even if one was trained for Castle Black, or if one was a rare bird that could fly to two locations, I still think it makes far more sense that the letter was sent from Winterfell with Mance involved rather than sent from the crofter's village without Mance involved.

But the purpose of this OP is to show why Mance collaborated with Stannis.

• Stannis wants Jon to be his loyal Lord of Winterfell, the son of Eddard Stark, someone who will rally the north to his cause. Stannis also plans to marry Val to Jon as the mortar to seal a peace between the Wildlings and the North.
• Stannis' plan suits Mance with one obvious exception, having Stannis and the Iron Throne as his overlord. The free folk will not follow Stannis by choice. They don't care how you style yourself, of who your sire was. They don't follow names, they follow the man. Mance wants Jon to be crowned King-in-the-North and be the man the north and the Wildlings both choose to follow. Jon notably killed the boy and let the man be born.
• Jon Stark, King-in-the-North, is the best political solution Mance could hope for when it comes to having his people south of the Wall without being subjected to the rule of a king they would not choose to follow. And Abel is well-placed to know the north are not really loyal to the Boltons or the Iron Throne, with some notable northern houses clearly plotting against them.
• So Mance helped Stannis' attempt to get Jon to Winterfell even though he had an ulterior motive. Mance no doubt hoped that when Jon arrived the northern conspirators would win the tug-o-war for him and eliminate Stannis in the process.

 

[The Mother of The Others]

2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

"I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore."

This line is one of the biggest clues that the letter is from Stannis. Stannis told Davos that Mel has sworn to him that she has seen him standing against the darkness with lightbringer. This line is clear indicator to Mel that the letter is false, as it contradicts what R'hllor has shown her in her fires

I don't get the insistence on this.   The sword has failed Stannis.  That's no lie.   He could use a little heat from a legit lightbringer right about now.   So I hear this as a legit gripe against Mel, an indictment and not a secret code to activate some further loyal actions from Melisandre.   Same if from Ramsay or Thorne: your razzle dazzle shit don't work. Witch.  Hell yeah things aren't going according to your flame visions.  That's not said so you'll know the letter is a lie, that's the true part.

Now if the sword includes some kind of ruby inset or can serve as the focus for a locater spell, maybe he's urging her to peer out through the sword to see the true situation and discover where to find Stannis.  Maybe that's the Why of drawing her attention to the sword.  Like, if you've been holding back and are able to send any actual warmth through this blade after soaking up all the Wall's mojo, now would be great.   I think he's writing her off as a disappointment, though, if he penned this thing at all.

And the blessedly concise Bemused stuff above about Thorne as the letter writer brought back some nice nostalgia from when we thought we had this solved back in the summer of 2002.   Thorne as the includer of so much "bastard" usage does sing of correctness with a louder voice rising above the chorus of all the other potential writers.  Maybe the wall received a victory letter from Mance and Stannis with all the details Thorne wouldn't know, and that became Alliser's motive to entrap Jon NOW before the illegal king could consolidate his win by bringing the Wall into that treasonous madness.  So the conspirators at the wall rewrote the letter into a tale of defeat for Stannis to pull at Jon's heartstrings until it pulled him down off of the wall and out of the watch commander job.  The mention of Seven Days could be a nod to how we're acting in the interest of the Seven gods here to stop the incursion of the red god into our culture.  (Boom?)

[The Map Guy]

........putting tin foil hat on.

It was Melisandre and GRRM snuck a sneaky trick to fool all the readers. You guys read it wrong.

 

Melisandre would know ALL the people of that letter, aside from "Reek". Mel wants Jon dead in an attempt to test to see if he is Azor Ahai reborn.

She knows Jon would act irrationally, and it would cause a mutiny to get him killed at Castle Black.

 

She received a raven from Stannis about his current situation with Theon and Arya. But Stannis heard Theon wrong.

Quote

"The north remembers. The Red Wedding, Lady Hornwood's fingers, the sack of Winterfell, Deepwood Motte and Torrhen's Square, they remember all of it." Bran and Rickon. They were only miller's boys. "Frey and Manderly will never combine their strengths. They will come for you, but separately. Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek." Theon's laugh was half a titter, half a whimper. "Lord Ramsay is the one Your Grace should fear."

Theon I TWOW

My analysis:
He wants his bride back, her petname is Reek. GRRM's laugh was half a titter, half a whimper.......sneaky GRRM.

So Stannis doesn't know Reek = Theon.

The way Stannis heard it, it is f-Arya the bride = Reek.

He sends the new information to Melisandre, and she drafts the letter thinking f-Arya the bride = Reek.

Quote

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back. I want the false king's queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want this wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my [bride], Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard's heart and eat it.

Ramsay Bolton,

Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.

There are no skinned skin in this letter, which is Ramsay's MO.

Pink wax can easily be blood mixed with wax.

 

The trigger clue:

Quote

My name is Theon." It was good to say the name. The more he said it, the less like he was to forget. "You have to know your name," he'd told his sister. "You... you told me you were Esgred, but that was a lie. Your name is Asha."

Theon I TWOW

This chapter has a theme of mixing up names.

 

To Stannis and Melisandra ... REEK = aRya StarK = JEynE Poole

Melisandre already knows all the people of the pink letter and has the motive .... and the letter even included her usual mix up of things

.......just some tin foil

[kissdbyfire]

3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

This line is one of the biggest clues that the letter is from Stannis. Stannis told Davos that Mel has sworn to him that she has seen him standing against the darkness with lightbringer. This line is clear indicator to Mel that the letter is false, as it contradicts what R'hllor has shown her in her fires. Mel's reading of the vision is not quite right, as we the readers know, but this is how Stannis sees it.

I don’t see how this is a clue pointing to Ramsay not having written the PL... it’s Ramsay, and he has “Lightbringer” - not the real Lightbringer, of course, but he has Stannis’ “magic sword” - and he truly believes he has defeated Stannis. Only he is dead wrong. IMO.

[The Mother of The Others]

Yeah Mellie hasn't escaped my notice, Mr. Map.  Like, what if there were no visions in the flames about knives coming for Jon.  What if she knew they were coming because she was orchestrating it, and her warning to him was meant to clear her of suspicion and gain Jon's confidence after the world turned against him, as when his wolf suddenly gave her his seal of approval.  She's grooming Jon as her new boytoy king who'd then need a royal magician.

[James Fenimore Cooper XXII]

What the letter says.  His bride, his Reek, and the rebels brought to him.  He's willing to let Jon off the hook for violating the laws governing the night's watch and treason to the kingdom as long as Jon complies with the request.  

[The Map Guy]

11 hours ago, The Mother of The Others said:

Yeah Mellie hasn't escaped my notice, Mr. Map.  Like, what if there were no visions in the flames about knives coming for Jon.  What if she knew they were coming because she was orchestrating it, and her warning to him was meant to clear her of suspicion and gain Jon's confidence after the world turned against him, as when his wolf suddenly gave her his seal of approval.  She's grooming Jon as her new boytoy king who'd then need a royal magician.

Sneaky Mellie.

And poor Jon, so much bad luck with redheads...toying with him and trying to kill him. Never trust a redhead Jon.