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The Ramsey's list and the true goal of the Pink Letter


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24 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Sorry, I meant Theon II. And I was in the process of removing that part because I thought it was confusing.

 

I’m still confused. Obviously I’m the issue here... still, I can’t find a 2nd chapter titled Theon? There’s a few Reeks (3, I think), the Prince, Ghost, Turncloak (not in order), then Theon. :dunno:

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2 hours ago, lalt said:

The author's purpose is to hurge, to force Jon to leave the Wall as soon as he can.

I am still confused. If his sister is safe with "Reek" (whoever that is), then Jon won't leave the wall to help her. And you suggest that the writer knows Jon won't bestir himself to help his sister, so he claims Mance is in danger.  But I fai to see how Mance would be more important to Jon that his own sister.  Hell, it might to Jon's advantage for Mance to die.  After all, dead men tell no tales.  And Mance has plenty of tales Jon might not want spread around.

By the way, why would Jon assume Arya is with Reek.  There is no connection between them in the letter, nor any reason to think that Reek has anything at all to do with Arya.

I think the letter has several purposes:  to establish Jon as an enemy of the Boltons. and since the Boltons are the representatives of the Crown, the Crown as well; to get the NW to deal with Jon on their own; and to force Stannis's family (plus Val and Monster) to leave CB, and possibly Westeros, as it would be dangerous for them to remain.

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32 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I’m still confused. Obviously I’m the issue here... still, I can’t find a 2nd chapter titled Theon? There’s a few Reeks (3, I think), the Prince, Ghost, Turncloak (not in order), then Theon. :dunno:

There's one chapter titled Theon I in ADWD and there's the sample chapter in WoW, Theon I. And since it seems that chapter could have been placed in ADWD, then we would have had a Theon II chapter in ADWD which may have given a different perspective on the PL. So yes, confusing, confused myself because then I was not sure if that was a chapter that was supposed to be part of ADWD and taken out. 

That's it and I'm sure you're still confused, because it's a whole lot of rambling. 

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9 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

There's one chapter titled Theon I in ADWD and there's the sample chapter in WoW, Theon I. And since it seems that chapter could have been placed in ADWD, then we would have had a Theon II chapter in ADWD which may have given a different perspective on the PL. So yes, confusing, confused myself because then I was not sure if that was a chapter that was supposed to be part of ADWD and taken out. 

That's it and I'm sure you're still confused, because it's a whole lot of rambling. 

:lol:

Nope, I got it now. Phew. But yeah, I agree actually. Lots of issues regarding the PL come from TWoW Theon I and ADwD Jon XIII. I mean, many assume Theon I in Winds happens after Jon XII. 

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So I have to come back and re-read the OP (as well as all the subsequent comments) since I was at work when I read it and didn't have time.  But the few issues I always had with people claiming it was Ramsay who wrote the letter was why wasn't there any skin in the letter?  It is common for Ramsay to send the skin of those he flayed in the letters he sends.  Moreover, why did he say he has people's heads hanging at Winterfell?  Don't the Boltons hang the men they skinned and not their heads?  Has there been any instances in the books where Ramsay impaled his victims heads?  How would he know about Val?  And why would he mention Reek, in essence, why would he think Reek was at the wall?

There's a theory that Mance Rayder wrote the letter (forgive me if this is what the OP was discussing.  Again, I have to read the OP).  I can't remember all the details, but a lot of the adjectives in the letter are adjectives that Mance himself has used many times: calling Jon bastard, calling Melisandre the red witch, the wildling princess and the wilding babe.  These are all things that would seem strange for Ramsay to know about.

Also, somebody said why would Theon be at the wall as he Stannis's prisoner.  I think Theon will end up at the wall next book.  I think he will be the main POV for what is happening north.  GRRM has stated a lot of things are happening at the wall, this means we need a POV there.  He also stated there won't be any new POV characters.  The only person at the wall that has a POV is Melisandre, and I think GRRM wants to keep her inner thoughts a mystery to us.  It will either be Samwell or Theon who arrive at the wall and take over for the POV.

I can see Theon going to the wall in a few ways.  One, he escapes Stannis and goes there himself.  Either to try to join the NW and clear his inner demons, or he may even think once he joins Stannis won't hurt him, even though Stannis has basically taken over the wall.  Two, Stannis sends him with Jeyne Poole to the wall.  Three, Stannis loses the Battle of Ice and Theon escapes from the Bolton's and ends up there looking for help or safety.  Either way, I have a strong hunch Theon will be at the wall and we will see Jon's resurrection through his eyes.

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1 hour ago, Lady Winter Rose said:

Then Theon was executed by Stannis OR Asha saved Theon somehow. I sincerly believe Stannis was defeated.

 

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

How can Theon have been executed and then “saved somehow”? 

I disagree, Stannis wasn’t defeated. But that’s another discussion. 

I'm so sorry. I should have had put OR clause bolded and with big caps lock. I guess I should have know better.

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2 hours ago, Lady Winter Rose said:

You're so hard to read, Ialt.

I really believe Ramsey wrote the letter and that Theon, Jeyne + some other people just left the battle, maybe with entourage... maybe Asha & the Baavosi banker ended up murderer as unkown people with heads on WF walls, but Theon & Jeyne were surely sent to the Wall by Stannis.

Sorry if I'am hard. I try my best, but sometimes our best is not good enough.

However, I am not against the idea that Ramsey wrote it. I just think GRRM wrote ADWD the way he did, to let us speculate.
And if Ramsey is the author, then he had far better reasons to do what he did, than being.. irrational.

And that he may even know that Theon is dead, by the time he wrote the letter. Because the point is not to have those people.

1 hour ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Does the line, "No. There is truth in there" translate to Jon believes the entire content of the letter true or that the letter is partially true?

My interpretation, is that he's not 100% sold on the idea that the entire content is true. But just because only few people (he, Mel and Mance) knew such details, Jon believes that Mance was discovered and tortured for real by Ramsey and then that Ramsey wrote the letter.

2 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

As Nevets mentioned the ride to WF from CB is approximately two weeks at a steady pace in good weather. Throw in a snow storm that has wreaked havoc on WF, Stannis's crofter village and CB. That implies that no one, not even Bolton, is traveling anywhere at break neck speed.

Sure. And that is why - if the author is not by Ramsey or Roose - I'd bet  it was sent from  winterfell before the escape or meanwhile, and more likely to gain his help to break Winterfell's seige, after the battle. That's another reason to have Mance in cage outside winterfell's walls. It's like "see you there"

I'll go on and say that if that's the case (I am 50%-50%), then I guess Mance as the author. Because of that and because the text is full of references of things not only "seen" but heard/told by Mance. More than once. It's like he wants to deceive Jon at first glance, but at the same time he wants to give him the clues he may need to understand what's really going on when the right time comes.

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So I read the OP and all of the subsequent comments.  It was quite good and created Interesting dialogue.  I agree that the purpose of the PL was to get Jon to leave the wall to attack Bolton.  My gut tells me it's not Stannis who sent the letter, but if we look at it from a simple, superficial level, Stannis would be the most likely culprit.  He has wanted Jon to join him in his war for weeks/months.  He offered to legitimize him and make him Lord of Winterfell (maybe Warden of the north too, I forget?)  He has intimate knowledge of everything in the letter, and if he wrote it after he captured Theon he would know of Reek as well.  He would know the only way to get Jon to actually join him in his cause would be to threaten everything Jon holds dear: his sister (family), his home (Winterfell), his honor, and his brothers of the NW.  That letter addresses all of those things.

Jon was willing to leave the NW with a wildling army, and possibly members of the NW, to fight against the Boltons.  Well if you are fighting against the Boltons you are tangentially fighting with Stannis.  Once Jon is away from CB and fighting with Stannis it could very well create a possibility of Jon changing his mind and accepting the Lord of Winterfell/legitimization Stannis offered him.

However, I have a feeling Stannis lost/will lose the Battle of Ice.  Even though the show has veered off course GRRM has still told D&D the direction of the show.  For example, season 6 episode of Hodor's "hold the door" was not something they made up.  I'm sure you will see something very similar to that happen in the books as well.  Moreover, one of Dany's vision in the HOTU appears to show her converging the Dothraki under one Khalasar where she's standing in front of a burning Vaes Dothrak; something we've seen in the show but not in the books but will most likely happen in the books.

I think Stannis death by the Boltons in the show, though horribly done and made no sense, will be similar to what will happen in the books.  Likewise, D&D said GRRM said Shireen will be sacrificed and I think we will see that happen in the book like we did in the show.  I also think Jon Snow will become KitN like he does in the show and unite the north (although this could change now due to GRRM wanting to change things from the show and possibly being burnt out from writing the series)

But yeah, I think the odds are more in favor of Stannis losing to the Boltons than winning.  And although the PL appears to be from Ramsey, Stannis would have the most to gain from fooling Jon into leaving the NW and joining him in battle

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2 minutes ago, The Piper Report said:

So I read the OP and all of the subsequent comments.  It was quite good and created Interesting dialogue.  I agree that the purpose of the PL was to get Jon to leave the wall to attack Bolton.  My gut tells me it's not Stannis who sent the letter, but if we look at it from a simple, superficial level, Stannis would be the most likely culprit.  He has wanted Jon to join him in his war for weeks/months.  He offered to legitimize him and make him Lord of Winterfell (maybe Warden of the north too, I forget?)  He has intimate knowledge of everything in the letter, and if he wrote it after he captured Theon he would know of Reek as well.  He would know the only way to get Jon to actually join him in his cause would be to threaten everything Jon holds dear: his sister (family), his home (Winterfell), his honor, and his brothers of the NW.  That letter addresses all of those things.

Jon was willing to leave the NW with a wildling army, and possibly members of the NW, to fight against the Boltons.  Well if you are fighting against the Boltons you are tangentially fighting with Stannis.  Once Jon is away from CB and fighting with Stannis it could very well create a possibility of Jon changing his mind and accepting the Lord of Winterfell/legitimization Stannis offered him.

However, I have a feeling Stannis lost/will lose the Battle of Ice.  Even though the show has veered off course GRRM has still told D&D the direction of the show.  For example, season 6 episode of Hodor's "hold the door" was not something they made up.  I'm sure you will see something very similar to that happen in the books as well.  Moreover, one of Dany's vision in the HOTU appears to show her converging the Dothraki under one Khalasar where she's standing in front of a burning Vaes Dothrak; something we've seen in the show but not in the books but will most likely happen in the books.

I think Stannis death by the Boltons in the show, though horrible done and made no sense, will be similar to what will happen in the books.  Likewise, D&D said GRRM said Shireen will be sacrificed and I think we will see that happen in the s how.  I also think Jon Snow will become KitN like he does in the show and unite the north (although this could change now due to GRRM wanting to change things from the show and possible being burnt out from writing the series)

But yeah, I think the odds are more in favor of Stannis losing to the Boltons than winning.  And although the PL appears to be from Ramsey, Stannis would have the most to gain from fooling Jon into leaving the NW and joining him in battle

It was Brienne who killed Stannis in the abomination, not the Boltons. 

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Just now, The Piper Report said:

Correct.  But Brienne only could because Stannis lost the battle and his army

Yeah. So stupid that whole thing. :bang:

Anyways... I don’t think Stannis will be defeated by the Boltons. I believe Ramsay wrote the letter, and I believe he believes Stannis is dead when he writes it. 

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2 hours ago, Nevets said:

I am still confused. If his sister is safe with "Reek" (whoever that is), then Jon won't leave the wall to help her. And you suggest that the writer knows Jon won't bestir himself to help his sister, so he claims Mance is in danger.  But I fai to see how Mance would be more important to Jon that his own sister.  Hell, it might to Jon's advantage for Mance to die.  After all, dead men tell no tales.  And Mance has plenty of tales Jon might not want spread around.

By the way, why would Jon assume Arya is with Reek.  There is no connection between them in the letter, nor any reason to think that Reek has anything at all to do with Arya.

I think the letter has several purposes:  to establish Jon as an enemy of the Boltons. and since the Boltons are the representatives of the Crown, the Crown as well; to get the NW to deal with Jon on their own; and to force Stannis's family (plus Val and Monster) to leave CB, and possibly Westeros, as it would be dangerous for them to remain.

My argument, you may agree or not of course, is in fact that... the rest of the people on that list are the “trick” used to push Jon to do... what he was about to do.

Arya (Jon believes that is his sister) was never enough to reach that goal.

Just like helping/avenging his father, Robb, Bran and Rickon and Arya herself (as we readers, plus Mel and Mance know) were never enough for him to take that choice: leaving the Wall with an army.

What the PL’s author does, demanding him to hand over women and children beside Reek and fArya, is forcing Jon to choose between harming the NW or ending the lives of those women and children. 

So, form this pov, on one hand the author gave Jon the most grave moral dilemma he has ever faced, on the other - just because  of this - the best possible excuse for a man like him (a man of the NW, but a man of honor too) to take the decision he took. Leaving the Wall, immediately and with an army at his back.

The PL is an unnaceptable ultimatum, for a man of honor, as Jon the son of the honorable Edd Stark is supposed to be.

He may break his vow.... but still, for an honorable reason. A reason that has nothing to do with the family he swore to put aside, or the seek of power. 

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59 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

:lol:

Nope, I got it now. Phew. But yeah, I agree actually. Lots of issues regarding the PL come from TWoW Theon I and ADwD Jon XIII. I mean, many assume Theon I in Winds happens after Jon XII. 

Oh, good! Things make more sense when that chapter comes between Jon XII and XIII.

The letter mainly feels like it's written by someone who knows Jon well enough to know what he is going to do and what he will not do. There's nothing complicated about the way he thinks about certain things when it comes to the things that are sacred in the north. 

Jon gave Mel and everyone mentioned in the letter guest right. A big deal has been made of guest right with Alys Karstark and her uncle. Jon sent men down the kingsroad to intercept Cregan Karstark so that he would not have to extend his hospitality to him. So the odds were always good that Jon was not just going to hand over his guests to be tortured and raped and killed by Ramsay.

The first line of the letter is always a bit of a huh to me;

"Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle."

Does anyone think that Stannis's host can be in seven days of battle? Stannis's current host, as we know it is half-dead, half-starved and freezing. This is affecting mainly the southron knights, yes, but seven days seems excessive, I find.  

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44 minutes ago, The Piper Report said:
Spoiler

So I read the OP and all of the subsequent comments.  It was quite good and created Interesting dialogue.  I agree that the purpose of the PL was to get Jon to leave the wall to attack Bolton.  My gut tells me it's not Stannis who sent the letter, but if we look at it from a simple, superficial level, Stannis would be the most likely culprit.  He has wanted Jon to join him in his war for weeks/months.  He offered to legitimize him and make him Lord of Winterfell (maybe Warden of the north too, I forget?)  He has intimate knowledge of everything in the letter, and if he wrote it after he captured Theon he would know of Reek as well.  He would know the only way to get Jon to actually join him in his cause would be to threaten everything Jon holds dear: his sister (family), his home (Winterfell), his honor, and his brothers of the NW.  That letter addresses all of those things.

Jon was willing to leave the NW with a wildling army, and possibly members of the NW, to fight against the Boltons.  Well if you are fighting against the Boltons you are tangentially fighting with Stannis.  Once Jon is away from CB and fighting with Stannis it could very well create a possibility of Jon changing his mind and accepting the Lord of Winterfell/legitimization Stannis offered him.

However, I have a feeling Stannis lost/will lose the Battle of Ice.  Even though the show has veered off course GRRM has still told D&D the direction of the show.  For example, season 6 episode of Hodor's "hold the door" was not something they made up.  I'm sure you will see something very similar to that happen in the books as well.  Moreover, one of Dany's vision in the HOTU appears to show her converging the Dothraki under one Khalasar where she's standing in front of a burning Vaes Dothrak; something we've seen in the show but not in the books but will most likely happen in the books.

I think Stannis death by the Boltons in the show, though horribly done and made no sense, will be similar to what will happen in the books.  Likewise, D&D said GRRM said Shireen will be sacrificed and I think we will see that happen in the book like we did in the show.  I also think Jon Snow will become KitN like he does in the show and unite the north (although this could change now due to GRRM wanting to change things from the show and possibly being burnt out from writing the series)

But yeah, I think the odds are more in favor of Stannis losing to the Boltons than winning.  And although the PL appears to be from Ramsey, Stannis would have the most to gain from fooling Jon into leaving the NW and joining him in battle

 

For the sake of the thread let us keep that out of the discussion.

I'm gonna submit my post and see the the reveal tag worked. Then I am gonna edit my remarks.

Some of the stuff may occur as you said. BUT I would say --- there is no actual door at the CotF cave.

A Dance with Dragons - Bran II    "Is this the only way in?" asked Meera.    "The back door is three leagues north, down a sinkhole."    That was all he had to say. Not even Hodor could climb down into a sinkhole with Bran heavy on his back, and Jojen could no more walk three leagues than run a thousand.

If Hodor can't climb down a sink hole with Bran on his back I doubt Hodor, Meera or Jojen can climb up a sink hole to get Bran out.

What say the discussion is kept to the text martin wrote. :thumbsup:

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5 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Oh, good! Things make more sense when that chapter comes between Jon XII and XIII.

The letter mainly feels like it's written by someone who knows Jon well enough to know what he is going to do and what he will not do. There's nothing complicated about the way he thinks about certain things when it comes to the things that are sacred in the north. 

Jon gave Mel and everyone mentioned in the letter guest right. A big deal has been made of guest right with Alys Karstark and her uncle. Jon sent men down the kingsroad to intercept Cregan Karstark so that he would not have to extend his hospitality to him. So the odds were always good that Jon was not just going to hand over his guests to be tortured and raped and killed by Ramsay.

The first line of the letter is always a bit of a huh to me;

"Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle."

Does anyone think that Stannis's host can be in seven days of battle? Stannis's current host, as we know it is half-dead, half-starved and freezing. This is affecting mainly the southron knights, yes, but seven days seems excessive, I find.  

I left out one Roman 1 (I)... I meant TWoW Theon I happens before ADwD Jon XIII but I think you placed it correctly despite my mistake. 

Agree re guest Right. A big deal was made of it, and not just w/ Alys but Wun Wun as well. Selyse was not happy when Jon told her Wun Wun was a guest, same as she is. :lol:

“He only knows a few words of the Common Tongue as yet,” said Jon. “In their own land, giants speak the Old Tongue.”
“Can I touch him?”
“Best not,” her mother warned. “Look at him. A filthy creature.” The queen turned her frown on Jon. “Lord Snow, what is this bestial creature doing on our side of the Wall?”
Wun Wun is a guest of the Night’s Watch, as you are.
The queen did not like that answer. Nor did her knights. Ser Axell grimaced in disgust, Ser Brus gave a nervous titter, Ser Narbert said, “I had been told all the giants were dead.”
“Almost all.” Ygritte wept for them.”

But I don’t necessarily think it would take someone to know Jon well to to understand how the violation of guest rights would push his buttons. 

As to the seven days of battle, I don’t think Jon would know much about the state of Stannis’ army. Last he heard from Stannis, he’d taken DM and he had “more northmen joining every day” (paraphrasing). 

 

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13 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

The first line of the letter is always a bit of a huh to me;

"Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle."

Does anyone think that Stannis's host can be in seven days of battle? Stannis's current host, as we know it is half-dead, half-starved and freezing. This is affecting mainly the southron knights, yes, but seven days seems excessive, I find.  

Martin made worse mistakes than this - like Sandor carrying 10k gold pieces.

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7 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

As to the seven days of battle, I don’t think Jon would know much about the state of Stannis’ army. Last he heard from Stannis, he’d taken DM and he had “more northmen joining every day” (paraphrasing). 

No, Jon wouldn't know the state of Stannis's army and all the struggles they've had or anything going on. But the Boltons have a pretty good idea what the state of the troops are and you and I as readers do as well. 

"I see you all want blood," the lord of the Dreadfort say. Maester Rhodry stood beside him, a raven on his arm. The bird's black plumage shone like coal oil in the torchlight. Wet, Theon realized. And in his lordship's hand, a parchment. That will be wet as well. Dark wings, dark words. "Rather than use our swords upon each other, you might try them on Lord Stannis." Lord Bolton unrolled the parchment. "His host lies not three days' ride from here, snowbound and starving, and I for one am tired of waiting on his pleasure. Ser Hosteen, assemble your knights and men-at-arms by the main gates. As you are so eager for battle, you shall strike our first blow. Lord Wyman, gather your White Harbor men by the east gate. They shall go forth as well." (Theon I, ADWD 51)

The possibility that the opening line of that letter is a lie is a good one, I think. 

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