The Ramsey's list and the true goal of the Pink Letter

[three-eyed monkey]

3 hours ago, lalt said:

loosing tracks of fArya and the chance only that she may end up meeting Jon it's - I believe - a huge problem for the Boltons.

This is a huge problem for the Boltons, and for the theory that Ramsay wrote the letter.

The Boltons know Arya is fake. Jon is one of the few people who could identify the real Arya. He would be the last person the Boltons tell of her escape in case it prompts him to look for her, and thus discover she is not the real Arya.

If you think Ramsay didn't hunt her all the way to the Wall because she has too much of a lead, then that should only increase the chance of Jon getting to her first, especially as he is the one who organized her rescue, according to the letter. And remember, there is a chance, considering the weather and the frail state Jeyne was in, that she might never make it to the Wall. Or that Jon is not at the Wall but waiting nearby to receive Arya from the rescue party and spirit her away to somewhere safe and not so obvious as Castle Black.

I just cant see why the Boltons would write to Jon asking for her back, given that they know that Jon would know she is fake, and if they think Jon is the one who sent Mance to rescue her, the chance of him giving her back because of a threatening letter is even more slim.

That leaves you with the motive that they wrote the letter because they wanted to provoke him to do something that would lead to the Watch killing him, and that level of foresight is too much of a stretch.

Plus there are better options which offer a far better chance of success, like simply sending someone to kill Jon.

Even if they wanted to write a letter to provoke Jon's death then they still have better options than the one they took like demanding Jon be executed immediately for his crimes, by authority of the Warden of the North. So even though Ramsay may have a motive to write a letter to Castle Black, he has no motive to write the Pink Letter.

3 hours ago, lalt said:

Still I really think we cannot exclude other people and I better like to discuss them just because motive and opportunity are less clear (to me, at least) and just because (I admit it) I "feel" - but that's a feeling - that the author (or one of them) has a personal history with Jon.

It is vital that we do not exclude other potential authors if we want to know the truth, because logic rules Ramsay out on the basis of motive.

I agree that the author knows how to trigger Jon and that suggests a personal history with Jon. It's another strike against Ramsay. Stannis' personal history with Jon was relatively brief but still very telling.

But Stannis motive is clear, he has said it several times, he wants the son of Eddard Stark to put his vows aside and come to Winterfell, (where Stannis holds the castle, given that is where he sent the letter from), and rise Jon Stark, Lord of Winterfell, and loyal Warden of the North, because that is clearly the best political move he can make if he wants to secure the North to his cause.

[dialt]

3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

If you think Ramsay didn't hunt her all the way to the Wall because she has too much of a lead, then that should only increase the chance of Jon getting to her first, especially as he is the one who organized her rescue, according to the letter. And remember, there is a chance, considering the weather and the frail state Jeyne was in, that she might never make it to the Wall. Or that Jon is not at the Wall but waiting nearby to receive Arya from the rescue party and spirit her away to somewhere safe and not so obvious as Castle Black.

 

Considering the weather fArya might never make it to the Wall. Ok. That's the best scenario the Boltons can hope for.

Still, their motive doesn't have to consider the best possible scenario. It has to consider... the worst one, to avoid risks.

And to avoid risks, what do they have to do? Nothing but praying she won't get there? No. They have to do something.

So, sure... Ramsey may go hunting her. That's fitting to his personality. But "considering the weather" for Ramsey too, and that she has an advantage, he may not catch her in time: before she makes to CB. And that won't solve the problem of Jon meeting her.

And that is why, he doesn't even try to go after her, knowing that in the worst scenario he may still arrive at the Wall unannounced. He may ask the very same things he asks with the PL outside CB, accompanied by some men. That would be even more intimidating than the PL actually is. Yet, he doesn't do that... because that won't fix the true/main problem, that is Jon meeting fArya.

In addition, if Ramsey wrote the letter the only thing we can be 100% sure about is that he lerned some truth from Mance. The spearwives were not at CB the day Mance's death was faked and the letter contains too much references to things said and done that day. Therefore, if Ramsey wrote it, Mance spoke. And if Mance spoke... then Ramsey knows that the plan has always been to send fArya to CB and therefore he knows that Jon is nowhere but at CB.

That said, it's not that everything else in that letter has to be 100% accurate ortrue. Meaning for instance, that is possible the battle vs Stannis... hasn't happened yet. And there's not chance Ramsey can avoid that battle and go hunting fArya.

Trying to avoid the meeting Jon-fArya, is in every scenario we can possibly imagine, the best move the Boltons may make. The safest.

The only problem I have with Ramsey writing the PL, is that the PL is far too clever for him. 

 

[three-eyed monkey]

3 minutes ago, lalt said:

Considering the weather fArya might never make it to the Wall. Ok. That's the best scenario the Boltons can hope for.

Still, their motive doesn't have to consider the best possible scenario. It has to consider... the worst. They have to avoid risks.

To avoid risks, what do they have to do? Nothing but praying she won't get there? No. They have to do something.

So, sure... Ramsey may go hunting her. That's fitting to his personality. But "considering the weather" for Ramsey too, and that she has an advantage, he may not catch her in time: before she makes to CB. And that won't solve the problem of Jon meeting her.

And that is why, he doesn't even try to at least arrive at CB unannounced. He may ask the very same things he asks with the PL outside CB, accompanied by some men. That would be far more intimidatig that PL actually is. Yet, he doesn't do that... because that won't fix the true/main problem that is Jon meeting fArya.

In addition, if Ramsey wrote the letter the only thing we can be 100% sure about is that he lerned some truth from Mance. The spearwives were not at CB the day Mance's death was fake and the letter contains too much references to things said and done that day. Therefore, if Ramsey wrote it, Mance spoke. And if Mance spoke... then Ramsey knows that the plan has always been to send fArya to CB and therefore he knows that Jon is nowhere but at CB.

That said, it's not everything else, in that letter has to 100% accurate. Meaning for instance, that is possible the battle vs Stannis... hasn't happened yet. And there's not chance Ramsey can avoid that battle and go hunting fArya.

Trying to avoid the meeting Jon-fArya , is in every scenario we can possibly imagine, the best move the Boltons may make.

The only problem I have with Ramsey writing the PL, is that the PL is far too clever for him.

 

So lets' talk this through. Are you saying that the reason Ramsay wrote the letter is to provoke Jon in to doing something that would cause the Watch to assassinate Jon?

[dialt]

16 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

So lets' talk this through. Are you saying that the reason Ramsay wrote the letter is to provoke Jon in to doing something that would cause the Watch to assassinate Jon?

No.

I said he wants Jon to leave the Wall as soon as he read the PL, hopefully with an army of wildlings  (I have him in cage... come and get him) at his back. So that he'll die in battle or executed as a traitor.

[The Mother of The Others]

Ramsay doesn't avoid risks.  He outmaneuvers them.   Swims through the blood and blades unscathed.  And while unraveling for real, he'd remain the hunter by making the enemy unravel to match.   He would write it.   And, it takes care of Jon before Arya can arrive, wings being swifter than feet.    And Boltons could indeed forecast the result the letter got.   They're gifted at working the system and we should be done underestimating them by now.

 

Mance as the author could also have foreseen things playing out the way they did.    And he has access to a glamor.  A disfigured Ramsay might be the one in that cage.   Mance could be running his own game against the wall, stannis, and the north.   An inkling of this truth would make jon head to winterfell more surely than anything ramsay might say or do, because this would be a nightmare of jon's own making.

[three-eyed monkey]

11 minutes ago, lalt said:

No.

I said he wants Jon to leave the Wall as soon as he read the read the PL, hopefully with an army of wildlings at his back. So that he'll die in battle or executed as a traitor.

So you're saying, including in the Op, that the over-riding motive is to prevent a meeting between fArya and Jon, who would know she is not Arya, which would be a big problem for the Boltons. And the purpose of the letter is to provoke Jon to leave Castle Black immediately, hopefully with an army, presumably heading to Winterfell, so that he will either get killed in battle or executed as a traitor. Essentially it's a longshot that landed on the button then, not a masterstroke but a stroke of luck.

I agree that fArya meeting Jon is a problem for the Boltons. But if they are going to take action to solve that problem they have a number of options.

The obvious option is to try catch her before she reaches Jon. Personally, I think Ramsay would hunt her, and Reek, all the way. It's 600 miles and he knows their destination, assuming they think she is going to Castle Black. She can't have too big a lead. Two or three days at best. The Boltons have outposts further north, like the Dreadfort, that could send men to cut her off or get in a position to watch all approaches to Castle Black.

But lets just say they decide a letter is the best thing. They still have better options. For example, they could simply demand Jon be executed immediately for his crimes, for which they have proof.

They could even write a letter very similar to the pink letter but with one obvious exception.Omit "I want my bride back". Write the letter claiming that Jon sent Mance to rescue Arya but Mance got caught and confessed. I mean why tell Jon that Arya has escaped when that could very plausibly provoke Jon to go looking for her, which is what they are trying to prevent. Provoking Jon to ride to Winterfell when she is traveling in the opposite direction is risky enough as it is, why take extra chances?

So if you're saying the author wrote the letter with the purpose of getting Jon killed, be it by battle, execution, or assassination, before he could meet fArya, and it worked out perfectly, then I find that just too much of a stretch as it sort of makes the Faceless Men seem rather overpriced.

If you're saying that the purpose of the letter was simply to provoke Jon to leave Castle Black before Arya got there, then I would ask why even tell Jon that Arya had escaped?

 

 

 

 

[dialt]

@three-eyed monkeyI believe I have already answered to your last question.

So I’ll reply to the new one. Can they ask for Jon to be executed? 

First they should need to prove that Abel is really Mance. They need to prove the man many have seen burning wasn’t him. Let’s say they accomplish that. Second they need to prove his words are true ( and it’s not that Mance has a track record of a trustworthy man). Still it requires some time, time that - imo - they don’t have. 

In short, like I said, I see no scenario that gives them enough time to avoid that meeting minus forcing/pushing Jon to leave CB as soon as possible. If so, he won’t meet her. 

[kissdbyfire]

3 minutes ago, lalt said:

First they should need to prove that Abel is really Mance. They need to prove the man many have seen burning wasn’t him

Bingo. 

This is something most forget/dismiss, but Mel and Jon are the only ones currently at CB that know Mance is alive. 

[dialt]

6 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Bingo. 

This is something most forget/dismiss, but Mel and Jon are the only ones currently at CB that know Mance is alive. 

As a paradox - or as a result of a good plan - Jon’s reaction (or what he was about to do) is the smoking gun that may be used to 100% prove that Abel/Mance didn’t lie.  

[dialt]

1 hour ago, The Mother of The Others said:

Ramsay doesn't avoid risks.  He outmaneuvers them.   Swims through the blood and blades unscathed.  And while unraveling for real, he'd remain the hunter by making the enemy unravel to match.   He would write it.   And, it takes care of Jon before Arya can arrive, wings being swifter than feet.    And Boltons could indeed forecast the result the letter got.   They're gifted at working the system and we should be done underestimating them by now.

 

Mance as the author could also have foreseen things playing out the way they did.    And he has access to a glamor.  A disfigured Ramsay might be the one in that cage.   Mance could be running his own game against the wall, stannis, and the north.   An inkling of this truth would make jon head to winterfell more surely than anything ramsay might say or do, because this would be a nightmare of jon's own making.

I’ll only add that I agree a lot about what you said about Mance.

Even tho I think Stannis, Mel and him agreed on something and that something had to with Jon, so much so Mel and Mance say they need to gain his trust, still that doesn’t necessarily mean Mance is loyal to whatever pat they’ve made. I think there are pretty good chances he has his own plan. And I am not 100% sure he has nothing against Jon too... or Mors Umber. What if he’s using them as long as he have before betraying them. I don’t know if I can speak in this thread of the so called Asha fragment... but I cannot help but notice some similarities to a conversation we have in ADWD and not only... some symbolisms/details... if you know what I mean...

[kissdbyfire]

34 minutes ago, lalt said:

As a paradox - or as a result of a good plan - Jon’s reaction (or what he was about to do) is the smoking gun that may be used to 100% prove that Abel/Mance didn’t lie.  

Sorry, I’m not sure what you mean here... Are you saying that Jon announcing he was going to “make Ramsay answer for his threats” (paraphrasing) somehow proves Mance didn’t lie? And didn’t lie about what? 

Sorry I'm being so dense, I'm really tired today.

[Clegane'sPup]

I have been reading and following along with both PL/Bastard letter threads. I have been hoping for some new insight. Although the threads have been interesting no new information has surfaced.

Roose is Lord of Dreadfort and Warden of the North. Ramsey via marriage to Arya/Jeyne is Lord of Winterfell.

Roose got the title Warden of the North bestowed on him by Lannister after the death of Robb Stark at the Red Wedding. Roose knifed Robb. Roose's reward was Warden of the North.

The purpose for Roose to move the wedding from Barrowton to WF  was to lure Stannis to Winterfell. For some reason Roose knows that Stannis has support of the northern clans. There is a belief that in order for the clans to remain loyal to Stannis, Stannis must save Jeyne/Arya and rid WF of Bolton's.

I can already see the writing on the wall. Where are the textual quotes?

The point is, that at this stage of the story Bolton is in the Lannister (Throne) pocket. Stannis is a threat to the Iron Throne. A threat Bolton must deal with. Except, Tywin, the real power behind the throne is now dead.

Let's bring in another factoid. Tywin married Sansa to Tyrion before Tywin gave Jeyne/Arya to Bolton. Since Bran & Rickon are presumed to be dead, Sansa's husband is Lord of Winterfell. Tywin told Tyrion to get a baby in Sansa quick.

Well nun if that matters anymore since Tyrion is accused of killing King Joffrey B/L.  Sansa is supposedly an accomplice to King Joff B/L's death. AND Tywin is dead.

Where is martin going with this bastard letter?

There are numerous situations and scenarios to chit chat about. As it stands none are wrong.

For fun and for free I'll throw out some tinfoil.

Winterfell has fallen, been taken over by the north men. The ravens have been busy. Umber is angry that Mance lives. Umber was given a false Mance skull. The Hornwood maester is in cahoots with Umber.

Umber doesn't know that Jon didn't know about the Rattleshirt/Mance switcheroo. Thereby calling Jon out to come to WF. Except Umber doesn't know that Jon had intended on going to Hardhome.

How many people told Jon that the venture to Hardhome was useless. Well now, threaten to cut out Jon's heart and eat it might get Jon's hackles up.

What's to say that  --- the letter was finagled with at WF  --- written by a maester in black ink and signed with a forged signature ---  was  again tampered with when it arrived at the Wall? 

Round and round. If martin had produced his material in a timely manner the WF scenario, Stannis' win or defeat at the crofters village and the aftermath of the attempted murder of the LC at the Wall would be old news.

 

 

[kissdbyfire]

50 minutes ago, lalt said:

Even tho I think Stannis, Mel and him agreed on something and that something had to with Jon, so much so Mel and Mance say they need to gain his trust, still that doesn’t necessarily mean Mance is loyal to whatever pat they’ve made.

I think Mel needs Jon to trust her, she says as much. And Mance joining in is probably because he owes her, in a way. 

50 minutes ago, lalt said:

I think there are pretty good chances he has his own plan.

I agree there’s a good chance Mance has something he wants to do that has nothing to do w/ Mel’s plan or Jon’s or anyone’s. 

50 minutes ago, lalt said:

And I am not 100% sure he has nothing against Jon too...

Deep down Mance and Jon have a good relationship. They were on opposite sides for a time, and they’re still a bit suspicious of each other. But they have also come to respect each other, and I think this will play a part soon-ish in Winds.

50 minutes ago, lalt said:

What if he’s using them as long as he have before betraying them

Who? Mance and? Or not Mance? 

50 minutes ago, lalt said:

 I don’t know if I can speak in this thread of the so called Asha fragment... but I cannot help but notice some similarities to a conversation we have in ADWD and not only... some symbolisms/details... if you know what I mean...

I think you can post stuff from the TWoW sample chapters. I think you have to use the spoiler box and warn people what’s in the “secret eye thing” (spoiler box). 

[three-eyed monkey]

2 hours ago, lalt said:

In short, like I said, I see no scenario that gives them enough time to avoid that meeting minus forcing/pushing Jon to leave CB as soon as possible. If so, he won’t meet her. 

Just off the top of my head, they could ask for Jon to be arrested and contained without visitors until they can bring Mance to the Wall and get to the bottom of this. They have multiple options such as this. The Boltons have the authority of the crown behind them as Wardens of the North. Mance's life was forfeit by all the laws of the Seven Kingdoms. Jon's crimes would put him in the same place. That gives the Boltons options to deal with the situation in a considered and intelligent manner. They simply have too many better options for the Pink Letter to be considered a good move for the Boltons, given that they could not have foreseen the resulting assassination.

So getting Jon to leave the Wall is only really half of a solution from the Boltons' point of view, they still need that longshot to land and someone to actually kill Jon if they are to hope for a permanent solution to the problem of Jon ever meeting fArya, but Jon being killed does not naturally follow the arrival of the letter. The letter is addressed to Jon after all and there is no reason to think he would discuss it with people other than those he trusts, if anyone at all. If you want someone in the Watch to kill or arrest Jon then you don't write to Jon and hope he shares the content with someone who will kill or arrest him, you just write to someone who you think will kill him or arrest him.

We both agree that the letter is written to provoke Jon into leaving the Wall. If he does that it follows that he forswears his vows. It does not necessarily follow that he gets killed, in fact that was an improbable outcome that any author could not have foreseen.

If it was Ramsay who wrote the letter then it was a poor choice of available options that was suddenly turned to gold by the assassination. If it was Stannis who wrote the letter it was a clever ploy that was suddenly dashed by the assassination. Based on your experiences reading ASoIaF, which one do you think GRRM prefers?

[kissdbyfire]

CB had ~ 400 men when “Mance” was executed, so by the time of the assassination attempt made on Jon they have fewer still. Tormund brought ~ 3,000, plus another 1,000 give or take that were in MT. Many are not there anymore, but they will outnumber the anti-Jon crows easily. So Marsh & co. attempting to arrest Jon will have the same result as the stabbing: mutineers are not long for this world. The difference being that the conspirators would think that by killing Jon they might succeed in appeasing the Boltons and the Crown. 

I think Marsh might have been thinking about arresting Jon for the purpose stated above. And it’s only when he learns Jon will ride out to make Ramsay pay for his threats that he/they decide(s) to get rid of Jon. 

 

[three-eyed monkey]

2 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

CB had ~ 400 men when “Mance” was executed, so by the time of the assassination attempt made on Jon they have fewer still. Tormund brought ~ 3,000, plus another 1,000 give or take that were in MT. Many are not there anymore, but they will outnumber the anti-Jon crows easily. So Marsh & co. attempting to arrest Jon will have the same result as the stabbing: mutineers are not long for this world. The difference being that the conspirators would think that by killing Jon they might succeed in appeasing the Boltons and the Crown. 

I think Marsh might have been thinking about arresting Jon for the purpose stated above. And it’s only when he learns Jon will ride out to make Ramsay pay for his threats that he/they decide(s) to get rid of Jon. 

 

Marsh was trying to appease the crown when he stabbed Jon. Since Stannis arrived Marsh had been warning Jon about getting too close to the rebel king, and imploring him to make sure he, as LC of the Watch, chooses the right side in the war of the kings. Jon wrote to KL to assure the crown the the Watch take no part, but the small council saw it differently. There is evidence to suggest that Marsh had a letter from Swyft and Pycelle, who were running the realm while Cersei was imprisoned and Kevan was been summoned from the Rock, telling him that the Watch must remove Jon as LC or risk been seen as accomplices to the rebel Stannis, and that no more men would be sent to the Wall until such time as Jon has been removed. That's why Marsh said it was for the Watch.

I don't think Marsh considered it a suicide mission, if that's what you're implying. I think it's more likely that he thought he was covered by that letter from Swyft, who was Hand at the time. But of course we have seen the value of a paper shield before.

I agree that Marsh was probably planning an arrest at first but once Jon decides to ride out he is forced to act or else risk been seen as sympathetic towards Jon and Stannis by extension.

But I don't think the author of the letter, regardless of who it is, (well magical visionaries aside), could have foreseen that outcome. Certainly not with any degree of certainty, and by that I mean I don't think it was something they could have realistically planned or even hoped for.

[dialt]

9 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Sorry, I’m not sure what you mean here... Are you saying that Jon announcing he was going to “make Ramsay answer for his threats” (paraphrasing) somehow proves Mance didn’t lie? And didn’t lie about what? 

Sorry I'm being so dense, I'm really tired today.

Prior to that I was talking about the fact that the Boltons should prove that Abel is Mance and that it's true what he says: that Jon sent him to WF. As a "paradox" (or maybe it's what they want) Jon leaving CB with the wildilings to "come and get him" (to quote the PL) validates Mance's words. At that point there should be no doubt anymore.

9 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Just off the top of my head, they could ask for Jon to be arrested and contained without visitors until they can bring Mance to the Wall and get to the bottom of this. They have multiple options such as this. The Boltons have the authority of the crown behind them as Wardens of the North. Mance's life was forfeit by all the laws of the Seven Kingdoms. Jon's crimes would put him in the same place. That gives the Boltons options to deal with the situation in a considered and intelligent manner. They simply have too many better options for the Pink Letter to be considered a good move for the Boltons, given that they could not have foreseen the resulting assassination.

 

Ask to whom? Jon is the Lord Commander. They should write to...? But, let's pretend they do it and that some men of the NW take into consideration their request... still they need to convince the rest of the NW to arrest the Lord Commader. To do so, they need to convince those people that Mance has not die. That the man they saw burning wasn't him. The Boltons only have Abel's words and not time to waste. That's the problem. And like I said - more than a few times - my point is not that they may have wrote the PL to provoke the munity. I agree they have not clues of the actual situation at the Wall (so asking the NW to arrest the lord Commander is even more unlikely from their part, to begin with) No. I believe they want Jon to leave... to kill him on the battlefield, or at that point with 0 doubt on the matter (see above) as a traitor. That Jon leaves with the wildlings to "come and get him [Mance]" as the PL suggests (how convenient) that is the smoking gun they need. Game, set, match from the Boltons.

We can disagree of course. But I never said they want to provoke the munity or that they foresee that event. 

9 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Who? Mance and? Or not Mance? 

Quote

Yes Mance. In all honesty I agree that deep down there's a mutual respect between M/J. That could be said about Stannis and Jon too. And in all truth,  maybe about Stannis and Mance too..

But there are some little details there and then that I cannot place. For example, re-reading Jon II from ASoS 

"Jon's breath misted the air. If I lie to him, he'll know. He looked Mance Rayder in the eyes, opened and closed his burned hand "I wear the cloak you gave me, Your Grace"
"A sheepskin cloak!" said Ygritte "And there's many a night we dance beneath it, too!" [...]
Mance nodded. "Good. You'll go with Jarld and Styr on morrow, then. Both of you. Far it from me to separate two hearts that beat as one"
"Go where?" said Jon.
"Over the Wall. It's past time you proved your faith with something more than words, Jon Snow." [...]
Styr scowled. "His heart may still be black."
"Then cut it out".

We know that Jon is lying. That in the end, he proved that he was still a man of NW. Did Mance forgive him, for real? 100%? I don't know. In addition, in the PL there are a few callbacks to this chapter beside the "I will cut out your bastard's heart".

 The PL repeatedly calls Jon a liar. And him being a liar or not, was the subject of this conversation. And then you have the cloak.. in the PL is Mance that is wearing a cloak made of skin that someone else gave him (and Mance should know that this is what the Boltons do, because he should know just like Ygritte, that is how Bael's son died). And maybe even that quote about the "two hearts that beat as one"... at the end of the day, Mance stole Ramsey's bride. As the PL tells more than once.

What if he wrote the PL to lure Jon in a very very bad situation? What if he's betraying Jon and Stannis too?  Or maybe Mance wrote the PL but he is not seeking avenge. Maybe knowing that Jon "saved" him and helped his people was enough or he has other reasons to ultimatelly respect Jon and what he's doing is just trying to provoke a reaction in Jon, reading at first glance the PL. But at the same time Mance is giving Jon all the clues he may need to understand what's really going on at a second glance.

Or, even if I am right and these are all callbacks, it could be just foreshadowing future events.

In short, so many chances... 

I'll write something later about the Asha's fragment. Sorry but I really need to go now.

[three-eyed monkey]

4 hours ago, lalt said:

Ask to whom? Jon is the Lord Commander. They should write to...?

Bowen Marsh, Lord Steward and castellan at Castle Black, the only other person of significant rank at Castle Black. That's who Swyft wrote to. Because it makes sense to replace a commander that is being removed with someone who already holds rank and thus avoid a power vacuum. Other options might include Commanders Mallister and Pyke, but Marsh would be the obvious choice.

[dialt]

46 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Bowen Marsh, Lord Steward and castellan at Castle Black, the only other person of significant rank at Castle Black. That's who Swyft wrote to. Because it makes sense to replace a commander that is being removed with someone who already holds rank and thus avoid a power vacuum. Other options might include Commanders Mallister and Pyke, but Marsh would be the obvious choice.

And then they need to prove the accusations like I said in the rest of that post. And like I said in the rest of that post I still think it requires time the Boltons do not have.

However agree to disagree.

[The Commentator]

On 12/4/2018 at 11:19 AM, lalt said:

Just read the OP. I said the contrary. Jon telling his brothers he won't ask them to forswear their vows, to me if proof that he knows that's what he is doing. 
Also, the OP in my eyes holds argumentents that serve better the idea that Ramsey (or Roose) is the author.
Sorry, but I still don't think Ramsey has any urgency to ask for those people and not reason to ask for some of them. He won, so? Still if the letter has to be trusted, if he lost tracks of fArya (and possibly of Theon too, according the PL) he should be focused on something else.

All his claim on WF and most of the Boltons power are based on 2 lies: that the girl is Arya Stark and that Theon killed the last 2 legitiamte male heirs of lord Eddard. I guess he cares about that, not that much about those people. They are just a trick. So that he'll get the chance to kill Jon in battle or later as a traitor and Jon won't ever get the chance to meet fArya (and possibly Theon) and then let the SK know the truth.
Why given the context, and his far more serius problems, Ramsey should care about all those people.... for real (beside his wife)?  Why to provoke the FF, if he is in the position to not fight anymore and winter is really coming? Why... if he really lost tracks of fArya and Theon, wasting any time going back to Winterfell instead of going into huntig her/them directly, after the battle? Why if is not scared of harming the NW... he just doesn't show up there? Why, in other words, to give up his best weapon: the surprise effect? Why he didn't tortured/interrogated any survivor of Stannis's army, to know fArya's and Theon's whereabouts? If so (because  that's what you may expect  a Bolton to do) he should know that Theon was there.... and I guess he does, if he wrote the PL. But he had a good reason to mention Reek.
Because that is not to say he didn't wrote the letter. That is to say he had far more good reasons to wrote the PL exactly the way it's written, rather than being a sociopath.

At the same time, sorry again, I also believe that the way we judge some charaters has little to do with storywise. They may be jerks. Fine, but still....

ADwD is meant (among many other thiings) to build pov after pov the climax of Jon finally forswearing his vows (and dying).

And Stannis is the same man that had his borther killed with a witchcraft. And that "saved" Mance....

Whereas Mance.... he knows better than others how it's hard to make Jon turn/forget his cloak... for real.

And what is the plan he and Melisandre have/share, because we know they do [Melisandre I, ADWD], so much so, they say they need to gain Jon's trust? To do what?

But... we can still agree to disagree.

 

We will indeed have to agree to disagree.

The Bolton claim to Winterfell is based on solid, legal grounds.   The Starks rebelled and lost.  Roose Bolton is the Warden Of the North and its lord paramount.  His seat is Winterfell.  All the marriage was supposed to do is to pacify the bitter among the northmen.  

Ramsay Bolton has a temper but he is not going to draw the wildlings out into battle right after he had just fought Stannis for a week.  That would be stupid.  He wants to rest his troops.   On the flip side, only an idiot would march out from Castle Black in that kind of weather, travel to Winterfell, and go into battle.  What I am saying here, Ramsay is not likely to expect Jon to march his men from the safety of Castle Black to attack him in Winterfell.  That would be completely idiotic.  But Jon did the unexpected because he was no longer thinking clearly.  He formed a wildling  party and was about to do one of the stupidest things a leader does in the story when Bowen Marsh stopped him.