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Lord Varys

[SPOILERS] Family trees and successions

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On 11/26/2018 at 10:02 PM, Bael's Bastard said:

Lord Edric, Lord Brandon's grandson, succeeded him in 72 AC. Lord Alaric's two sons predeceased him, and as far as I can tell, it isn't clear which child of Lord Alaric he was descended from, whether the elder son, the younger son, or the daughter.

Lord Ellard ruled at the time of the Great Council in 101 AC. It isn't clear who he is descended from as far as I can tell.

Lord Rickard, son of Lord Benjen and elder brother of Bennard, died in 121 AC.

Lord Cregan, son of Lord Rickard, was born in 108 AC and succeeded his father in 121 AC, dates which confirm what had previously been given in the MUSH. This indicates that the birth date of 88 AC given for Lord Rickard is probably also accurate.

We might then expect Lord Benjen, Lord Cregan's grandfather, to have been born around 68 AC, about four years before Lord Alaric died and was succeeded by his grandson Lord Edric, which would put him around the age of 33 when Lord Ellard during the Great Council of 101 AC.

So what does everyone think?

I just realized that given calculations, it seems that Edric, Ellard and Benjen were all born around the same time, so they were likely brothers or cousins by Alaric's sons. 

Those Starks seem to drop like flies without legitimate children. Walton Stark also died childless while his brother had already three adult(or teen) children.

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12 hours ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

If i remember correctly, @Ran confirmed some time ago that High Septon was maternal uncle of Ceryse Hightower, unless new info from Fire and Blood chanegs it.

Do you have a quote / link?

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38 minutes ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

I just realized that given calculations, it seems that Edric, Ellard and Benjen were all born around the same time, so they were likely brothers or cousins by Alaric's sons.

That is possible.

Lord Alaric's two sons and daughter were all still unwed and had no legitimate children when Alysanne visited in 58 AC, so Lord Edric couldn't have been older than 14 when he succeeded his grandfather Alaric in 72 AC, and could have been quite a bit younger than that.

I don't think we can completely rule out the possibility that Edric fathered Benjen, since the MUSH's 88 AC date for Lord Rickon's birth could always turn out to be a bit off, and even if not, it isn't conceivable for a young Stark lord to be attempting to father children at 16 years old (Robb).

But, if Rickon's birth date is truly 88 AC, it would require Edric to have been born not too long after Alysanne's visit in 58 AC, and it would require he and Benjen both to have fathered children before they were men grown.

For example, something like this:

Edric b. 59 AC
    - Ellard b. 72 AC
    - Benjen b. 73 AC
          - Rickon b. 88 AC
                - Cregan b. 108 AC

If Rickon's birth date was a little later, it would be a little less problematic, but would still require Edric to be born in 58-59 AC, and still require Edric, Benjen, and Rickon to have fathered children when they were barely men grown, for example:

Edric b. 59 AC
    - Ellard b. 75 AC
    - Benjen b. 76 AC
          - Rickon b. 92 AC
                - Cregan b. 108 AC

If Ellard and Benjen are siblings, then Benjen must be younger than Ellard since Ellard presumably came first.

But if Ellard is the son of Edric through Alaric's elder son, and Benjen is a son of Alaric's younger son, that can allow Benjen to be an older uncle of Ellard through a younger son of Alaric, while explaining why Ellard came before Benjen. For example:

Walton
Alaric 
    - Son 1 
          - Edric
                - Ellard
    - Son 2 
          - Benjen 
                - Rickon b. 88 AC ?
                      - Cregan b.108 AC 
                - Bennard b. 89 AC ?

But there is the possibility that Edric, Ellard, and Benjen are all siblings, sons of the elder or younger son of Alaric. For example:

Alaric
    - Son (1 or 2) 
          - Edric 
          - Ellard 
          - Benjen 
                - Rickon b. 88 AC ?
                      - Cregan b. 108 AC

Or that Edric and Ellard are siblings born to the elder son of Alaric, and Benjen is a son of Alaric's younger son, for example:

Alaric b. 
    - Son 1
          - Edric
          - Ellard
    - Son 2
          - Benjen
                - Rickon b. 88 AC ?
                      - Cregan b. 108 AC

This is all highly speculative, especially birth dates of men and ages when the men fathered children which could go any number of directions up or down by smaller or higher amounts, so this is by no means an attempt to nail down actual birth dates, only an exercise to see how the tree could possibly look, even with quite different birth dates.
 

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2 hours ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

I think it's here: 

 

Let me know if you see Ran's comment about the High Septon being a maternal aunt. The linked comment you sent only says whose brother Morgan Is, not that the High Septon isn't a Hightower.

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22 minutes ago, El-Daddy said:

Let me know if you see Ran's comment about the High Septon being a maternal aunt. The linked comment you sent only says whose brother Morgan Is, not that the High Septon isn't a Hightower.

In The World of Ice and Fire he was called to be related by marriage to the Hightowers, so that would suggest he wasn't one by birth but GRRM could have changed it. He threw out the window many things that were in The World of Ice and Fire, like brother of Lord Stark who objected to donation of New Gift.

In previous version Ceryse was daughter of Martyn, not Manfred so at least in that version High Septon was her maternal uncle.

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18 hours ago, El-Daddy said:

In my head I am assuming that Davos is the eldest son and heir, but I still can't include it in the tree, however likely it is, it is not confirmed. It's almost certain, but I still can't put it in. I had always considered that Raymont is probably a son of Orys too, and he isn't on the tree.

Raymont we can to safely discount as from now considering he was was deleted from FaB.

In the family tree I have seen you make it appear as if Rogar was confirmed to be not Davos' son - and that's not confirmed. I'd rather make it tentatively (i.e. with a question mark attached to parent-child relationship) rather than including an unknown Baratheon that may or may not even exist.

18 hours ago, El-Daddy said:

For the same reason, Addam is almost certainly the father of Manfred (II) Hightower, and the relationship between the Durrandons is a direct son-father-grandfather when it goes from Argilac - Arlan V - Arrec. We know that Argilac's grandfather was Arrec, and that Argilac's successor and eldest son was Arlan V.. but not that Arlan was the father of Argilac.

Here I'd also go with the question mark approach.

18 hours ago, El-Daddy said:

I got it. "A visit from the Dowager Queen and Vhagar had persuaded her [Alyssa] to leave her sanctuary on Driftmark and return to court, where Alyssa and her brothers and cousins of House Velaryon did homage to Maegor as the true king." So she has at least two brothers (Daemon, and whoever the father of Lianna is). However on the description of "cousins", we don't know if they are first cousins or second cousins. etc. so cannot be included.

You could add tentatively an unknown number of male Velaryons as brothers to both Aethan and Daemon (I). That would, in a sense, covering both for first and second cousins of Alyssa.

18 hours ago, El-Daddy said:

I agree about Larissa. I'm still not going to include her though - it's too hard to confirm. I will put in Gaemon's younger daughter though, as thinking about it, Gaemon was well known even casually of being the most "Glorious" of the Dragonstone lords, so people would have known if the claimant had simply invented a daughter in his fabrication of some form of connection.

Yeah, I understand the Larissa conundrum.

18 hours ago, El-Daddy said:

If Hubert was of an age with Aegon when he inherited, having Rodrik's father and uncle being sons of Hubert would fit in perfectly. However, if the split occurred between Hubert's sons and not earlier, Joffrey would be a third cousin and not a fourth cousin. Similarly, Isembard is specifically mentioned as being from a "still more distant branch of that great house". That implies that Joffrey's branch and Isembard's branch didn't split off at the same point, as otherwise they would both be equidistant to Jeyne.

And one last thing about the Arryns - Arnold is mentioned as being "first cousin" of Jeyne, and Joffrey is a "fourth cousin by degree". I take it we can assume they are not "fourth cousins twice removed" or anything like that..

I did some calculations yesterday, too, and if Jeyne and Joffrey were of the same generation then they can only be third cousins if the split took place among Hubert's sons. However, Jeyne (and in a lesser sense Rodrik, too) came into their lordship after elder siblings/uncles died, so it may be that there are 1-2 more generations between Joffrey and Hubert's sons than there are between Jeyne and Hubert's sons. That would make Joffrey technically a third cousin once or twice removed, but George never gave kinship to that degree. In fact, this is most evident in the succession of Garth X who was supposedly succeeded by a 'second cousin' - which really cannot be correct considering the insane age of Garth X at the time of his death. His successor cannot have been simply a second cousins - it must have been a second cousin twice or even thrice removed.

In that sense, Joffrey could still be cousin descended from one of Hubert's sons.

Isembard would then be more likely a descendant of a younger brother of Hubert. A cousin of Hubert would be problematic, I'd think, since that branch would have split from the main branch long before the reign of Jaehaerys I.

18 hours ago, El-Daddy said:

Sorry to go back to a previous comment, but one more point to add.

Jeyne Arryn being the daughter of Rodrik's elder son can also be supported by the fact that, if this was the case, it would make Rhaenyra Targaryen a (half) first cousin of Jeyne Arryn, as they would both share a grandfather of Rodrik Arryn, since Rodrik was father of Rhaenyra's mother Aemma. In AWOIAF, Rhaenyra is mentioned as being supported by her "cousin" Lady Jeyne, which is a fact that is much more likely to be mentioned if they are cousins to the first degree. This adds to us being more confident that Jeyne's father was Rodrik's elder son.

Yes, if Jeyne were descended from a brother or cousin of Rodrik's then they were only very distantly related kin.

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As for the High Septon - if we fly with the idea that Ceryse's uncle is the same High Septon who dies in 43 AC - I'd say the chances that he is now a younger brother of Manfred (II) Hightower are now much higher. FaB makes it very clear that the Hightowers dominate the Most Devout and the entire Faith to no small degree, meaning that being a younger son/brother of the Lord Oldtown would greatly help you to get the crystal crown if you are still a pretty young guy.

In general, I'd also go tentatively with the idea that Manfred (II) is the son of Lord Addam, just as I'd tentatively assume that Edric Stark is the son of the elder rather than the younger son of Lord Alaric. Ellard could be Edric's younger brother or his cousin (by the younger son of Alaric's).

Edited by Lord Varys

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37 minutes ago, Ran said:

Addam Hightower is indeed the father of Manfred #2.

Can you comment how Donnel the Delayer and Lord Martyn are related?

If you guys want to save the idea of a younger brother of Lord Stark being pissed about the New Gift (not it being made, but how it turned out) then the future Ellard being the younger brother of Lord Edric could work pretty well there - especially since Lord Ellard still being pissed about that could then contribute to his behavior during the Great Council later on (although I still don't understand how being pissed at Jaehaerys I should motivate them to favor one claimant over the other, especially not the female claim).

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Thanks @Ran :D very helpful.

I understand that there is very little you can tell us, because of your previous agreements. However these are more clarifications, than looking for more info, so to speak. Of course if you cannot comment either way, that is understood.

- Are the Durrandons a direct father-son relationship between Arrec - Arlan V - Argilac ?

- Is Jeyne Arryn a grandchild of Rodrik? We know that Rhaenyra and her are described as "cousins", so Jeyne being the daughter of Rodrik's son would make them first cousins.

- Are Rymond and Darnold sons of Hubert?

- Is Davos Baratheon the father of Rogar?

- Does Raymont Baratheon exist anymore? Answer gotten! Thanks.

- Is Ormund Baratheon a son of Lyonel (the Laughing Storm)?

- Is Yorbert Royce the father of Jeyne? Jeyne is Lady of Runestone in 103, and Yorbert is Lord in 101. Jeyne was succeeded by her nephew. Willum, the last known wielder of Lamentation, died during the Dance.

- Are Bryndon and Hobert Hightower first cousins of Lord Ormund Hightower?

- How is Donnel the Delayer related to Martyn and/or Ormund?

Confirmation on any of the above would be great.

Edited by El-Daddy

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@Lord Varys I'll see if the software I have allows for "?" to be put in on some of the lines. It would make some things neater and more clear, but also could allow some more people to be added, tentatively.. 

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3 minutes ago, El-Daddy said:

- Is Rodrik Arryn a son of Hubert?

For that one we don't need Ran. Rodrik Arryn is the son of Ser Rymond Arryn and the previous Lord of the Vale was his uncle Lord Darnold Arryn.

I assume that both Darnold and Rymond are sons of Lord Hubert Arryn.

Intuitively I'd say that Ser Hobert Hightower must be a more distant cousin to Lord Ormund considering his advanced age. Bryndon could be Otto's son, possibly his eldest.

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7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

For that one we don't need Ran. Rodrik Arryn is the son of Ser Rymond Arryn and the previous Lord of the Vale was his uncle Lord Darnold Arryn.

I assume that both Darnold and Rymond are sons of Lord Hubert Arryn.

Intuitively I'd say that Ser Hobert Hightower must be a more distant cousin to Lord Ormund considering his advanced age. Bryndon could be Otto's son, possibly his eldest.

Woops. I meant to say Rymond and Darnold 

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1 minute ago, El-Daddy said:

Woops. I meant to say Rymond and Darnold 

That we don't know ;-).

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8 hours ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

In previous version Ceryse was daughter of Martyn, not Manfred so at least in that version High Septon was her maternal uncle.

I think Ceryse has always been the daughter of Manfred (II), but Elio and Lina made a small mistake when they tried to include the Hightower stuff in the most compressed way as possible. So the question is if the guy during the reign of Aenys and Maegor  - who "was kin by marriage to the Hightowers" - is the same one as the guy who proposed the marriage between Maegor and Ceryse, "his own niece".

So I can see three possibilities now:

1. It is the same High Septon, so he is a maternal uncle of Ceryse.

2. The HS in 23 AC was a paternal uncle, the HS during the reigns of Aenys and Maegor just kin by marriage (of unknown degree).

3. The HS in 23 AC was a maternal uncle, the HS during the reigns of Aenys and Maegor another kin by marriage (of unknown degree).

2 and 3 seem a bit convoluted to me, but I guess we just do not know.

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On 12/13/2018 at 8:58 AM, The Wondering Wolf said:

1. It is the same High Septon, so he is a maternal uncle of Ceryse.



I'd say that must be right. He is the maternal uncle. I'll have to change the tree.

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I made some calculations and given that Rodrik was born in 45 and Jeyne in 94, it makes rather certain certain that Joffrey Arryn has to descend from brother of Hubert or Hubert was already old man and Darnold and Rymond were his grandsons rather than sons. But if this theory is true, Arryns of Gulltown should broke up from main branch even before Jaehaerys' reign

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6 minutes ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

I made some calculations and given that Rodrik was born in 45 and Jeyne in 94, it makes rather certain certain that Joffrey Arryn has to descend from brother of Hubert or Hubert was already old man and Darnold and Rymond were his grandsons rather than sons. But if this theory is true, Arryns of Gulltown should broke up from main branch even before Jaehaerys' reign

I think Rodrik was born in 44 AC, but does not change much.

I am not sure if GRRM really used the term fourt cousin correctly. Usually a fourth counsin is someone you share some great-great-great-grandparents with. As you say, Hubert could still be their most recent ancestor if there was another generation between him and Darnold. 

*Hubert (ca. 10 BC)

**son (ca. 8 AC)

***Darnold/Rymond (ca. 25 AC)

****Rodrik (44 AC)

***** son (ca. 64 AC)

******Jeyne (94 AC)

Joffrey would descend from a yonger son of Hubert. I guess this works.

But the text does not state that the Gulltown Arryns split from the main branch, but from their noble kin. So it seems they had already split from the main branch and were just still hanging around in the Eyrie or the Gates of the Moon when they decided to go their own way. At least this is the only way I see to reconcile the facts.

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