Age of Heroes and Long Night: Closer to 5,000 years ago than 10,000? [EW Interview with GRRM]

[Corvo the Crow]

8 minutes ago, Ran said:

You're taking the ae business way too far here. Lots of languages can and do have similar dipthongs/phonemes with no relation to one another.

Now that this is mentioned, do you kmow if GRRM has a connection in mind between Valyrians and First Men? Peninsula is rather close to what could be the FM migration route.

So much so the peninsula reminds me of the Crimean peninsula, which was settled by goths, and FM migration the nomads on the pontic steppe. Huns for example encoumtered ostrogoths and added them to their horde.

[Ran]

Just now, Corvo the Crow said:

Now that this is mentioned, do you kmow if GRRM has a connection in mind between Valyrians and First Men? Peninsula is rather close to what could be the FM migration route.

No idea. George has never gotten into it with us or anyone else.

[Corvo the Crow]

6 minutes ago, Ran said:

No idea. George has never gotten into it with us or anyone else.

Well. It sure looks like he is inspired by that even if in universe it's not that way. 

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, Werthead said:

I've been working on the theory that all of the traditional AGoT dates up to circa 2,000 before the present are off by a factor of around two.

Overall I think any idea that reduces the insane amount of time that supposedly passed is a good idea. But the way he plays it now we are rarely given any *supposedly accurate dates* in the books, anyway. I mean we have Arianne use the some 'a thousand years' ago for the era of the Children of the Forest and the time when the Mudds were still around.

That is not the way you would write if you wanted to (carefully) a corrected accurate chronology by means of introducing uncertainty. If George wanted to do that he would introduced credible experts who give our guys better numbers and explain why they are better.

I think it could make sense to sort of have a TWoIaF-like maester historical atlas history - a book with ancient political maps and campaigns and the like, actually giving a proper setting to the chronological chaos that must be in that world. I mean Gyldayn makes it clear in the first sentence of FaB - the maesters are using Aegon's Conquest as a cornerstone for their histories - but not everybody does. Not even to this day, perhaps. The Faith might date its proclamations and such after the reign of the present High Septon (without ever mentioning his name), the Iron Throne might date using reigns of kings, and before the Conquest the each of the Seven Kingdoms would have dated after their own kings, others may have more general cornerstones - legendary founding of Oldtown, a dating by season (the 4th year of the sixth summer after this or that calamity).

The possibilities for complications there are endless, as are dating methods in the real world which weren't exactly set up so that people living in a different system thousands of years later can make sense of all that.

If there is ever another edition of TWoIaF - which could then actually work very fine without the Targaryen stuff - it might be very interesting to focus more on the Seven Kingdoms as such, their detailed histories, especially if done in a way that really plays on the 'the farther back in time the cruder, weirder, and over-the-top the events and characters become'.

[Varysblackfyre321]

9 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

But that list only mentions that there had been “n” LCs up to a point. I mean, there’s no average tenure, and there must have been (some? several? lots?) LCs who had short tenures, and others who had really long ones. No? Or am I missing something?

I mean I guess you could try to look at life-spans to give a rough estimate. By no a way means to get a exact number but probably still something  in the ball park.  And one could infer things like the age of the average lord commander’s age at the time of his asencion and breakdown what he probably would be able serve a man in his middle age, but we’ve seen a 10 year old boy given the position. I don’t know. I’m just spit balling. 

[Lord Varys]

16 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I mean I guess you could try to look at life-spans to give a rough estimate. By no a way means to get a exact number but probably still something  in the ball park.  And one could infer things like the age of the average lord commander’s age at the time of his asencion and breakdown what he probably would be able serve a man in his middle age, but we’ve seen a 10 year old boy given the position. I don’t know. I’m just spit balling. 

If you buy the number of LCs you can just as well buy the list of the ancient popes where Sixtus is actually the sixth pope and crap like that.

Or those ancient lineages going back to Troy pretty much any noble house in the middle ages had.

There may be accurate lists going back to a certain point, but the idea that a chronicle of LCs was actually observed by illiterate people while they were still illiterate is just utter nonsense.

If we take the 'things are blurred and numbers don't add approach' then pretty much all dates and numbers from the more distant past (which basically means from before the Andals - and also around the time the Andals arrived) are nonsense.

[Bael's Bastard]

Peoples with oral histories were/are far more accurate than you are giving them credit for. And just remember that it is the literate Andals that can't keep their shit straight, even for the millennia that they personally witnessed and recorded.

[bent branch]

Having recently reviewed my eight type written pages of notes in regards to the three (or four) major prophecies in the books and the dating of the last long night, I have to say that I wrote down it was 5,000 years ago. Annoyingly, I didn't note why I thought that. This makes me feel that conclusion was probably more right than wrong, even if I can't remember why I thought that.

[Corvo the Crow]

@Ran Is it possible to ask Mr. Martin if the inspiration is really as I thought.

Though I read too much into it, Neck's inspiration in our world is likely the Karelian isthmus. First king is said to have buried in Barrowton so he passed the neck. 

Finno-ugric language was thought to be a part of ural-altai language family, same language family as the nomads of the steppe in our world.

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

7 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Peoples with oral histories were/are far more accurate than you are giving them credit for. And just remember that it is the literate Andals that can't keep their shit straight, even for the millennia that they personally witnessed and recorded.

Elaborate.

[T and A]

I just think that the 8.000 years were just put by GRRM, when he just did not gave much thought about it. He needed a number that was way in the past and he went with that. But even then, he made it seem clear that it is at best an uneducated guess by the Westerosi. Hell, most of the people in Westeros don't even believe that the Long Night happend. The older the story, the more forgotten it gets, the more of a legend instead of history it gets. Now that they are making a TV Show out of it, he had to think through the numbers and concluded that 8.000 years ago makes no sense for reasons that are discussed here many times.

[Bael's Bastard]

2 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Elaborate.

1. Peoples with oral histories were/are far more accurate than you are giving them credit for. 

Oral cultures might pass down oral histories that contain or develop exaggerations or inaccuracies, but they are less susceptible to introducing or accepting major revisions to what has been passed down.

In a literate culture, a written history is susceptible to being intentionally or unintentionally altered in minor and major ways, aside from whatever biases and inaccuracies went into producing the history in the first place.

2. And just remember that it is the literate Andals that can't keep their shit straight, even for the millennia that they personally witnessed and recorded.

The Andals and their septons were supposedly already literate when they arrived in Westeros, yet there is not even a consensus on how many thousands of years ago the Andals invaded Westeros.

House Arryn is claimed to derive from the oldest and purest line of Andal nobility, with the Arryn kings proudly tracing their lineage back to Anadalos itself, and some going so far as to claim descent from Hugor of the Hill.

Yet, despite the literacy of the Andals, and the old and pure nobility of that Arryn line that has consistently ruled from the Eyrie for millennia, we can't say whether they've been in Westoros for 6,000 years, 4,000 years, or 2,000 years.

[Lord Varys]

10 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Peoples with oral histories were/are far more accurate than you are giving them credit for. And just remember that it is the literate Andals that can't keep their shit straight, even for the millennia that they personally witnessed and recorded.

I said dates and numbers, not necessarily content of stories. Presumably, it would be the oral stories that are to be blamed for the 8,000 years, not so much written accounts - or if written accounts then those written by superstitious septons and singers.

It seems to me a false view of the early Andals to assume they were a pretty developed culture. They had a holy book - or a couple of them - but that's it. They were not learned as such. The first Andals we meet come off as zealous Ironborn basically, conquerors with a holy mission (or refugees hiding their desperation behind a desire for conquest).

And considering the fact that parchment would not last 6,000 or even 4,000 years (and even if technically can last 2,000 years, there is little reason to believe the early Andals suddenly decided to produce grand chronicles on their exploits and histories, especially not if the culture they conquered and overtook in a period likely lasting centuries, if not longer, was essentially illiterate at that time. I mean, what would the point of producing books if pretty much nobody could or would read?

The time of the 'maesterization' of Westeros would have come much later, and prior to that literacy would have been completely in the hands of the septons and septas - who would have also needed centuries to actually get all the common people converted in the southern kingdoms.

[JNR]

The specific dates are not particularly relevant to me.  The logical sequence of events is everything.

However, it's interesting that in some cases the provided dates do not stand alone; they can be cross-verified.

For instance, consider that Jon and Ygritte did not grow up in the same culture and do not have the same educational history -- to say the very least -- and yet we get this exchange:

Quote

"Gorne," said Jon. "Gorne was King-beyond-the-Wall."

"Aye," said Ygritte. "Together with his brother Gendel, three thousand years ago. They led a host o' free folk through the caves, and the Watch was none the wiser. But when they come out, the wolves o' Winterfell fell upon them."

"There was a battle," Jon recalled. "Gorne slew the King in the North, but his son picked up his banner and took the crown from his head, and cut down Gorne in turn."

Here it's Ygritte who drops the timing, despite her free folk background. 

Notice that Jon, taught by Maester Luwin and living inside a literate culture, has no correction to make. He evidently thinks it was three thousand years ago too. 

So it seems that not only can the free folk count (despite being illiterate), but what Jon was taught, and what Ygritte was taught, despite their radically different cultures, cross-verify each other on the chronology.  They only disagree on the narrative fate of Gendel and his children.

The accuracy of the free folk in this matter shouldn't surprise us because various cultures in our world have proven able to remember, and correctly report, incredibly ancient events.  The Australian aborigines for instance have many tales, not just one or two, that describe, with remarkable accuracy, the rising of sea levels on the coast due to the global melting of glaciers. Analyses have repeatedly verified these tales as correct... and the tales thus appear to be up to twelve thousand years old. 

Broadly speaking, I think it's plain GRRM was working from a coherent timeline prior to AFFC, at which point he consciously decided to haze it up and introduce doubt about the timing. 

If so, I don't care.  Doesn't really matter much to my analysis if the First Men originally showed up twelve thousand years ago or ten thousand years ago.

[Jaak]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Presumably, it would be the oral stories that are to be blamed for the 8,000 years, not so much written accounts - or if written accounts then those written by superstitious septons and singers.

It seems to me a false view of the early Andals to assume they were a pretty developed culture. They had a holy book - or a couple of them - but that's it. They were not learned as such. The first Andals we meet come off as zealous Ironborn basically, conquerors with a holy mission (or refugees hiding their desperation behind a desire for conquest).

And considering the fact that parchment would not last 6,000 or even 4,000 years (and even if technically can last 2,000 years, there is little reason to believe the early Andals suddenly decided to produce grand chronicles on their exploits and histories, especially not if the culture they conquered and overtook in a period likely lasting centuries, if not longer, was essentially illiterate at that time. I mean, what would the point of producing books if pretty much nobody could or would read?

Many people did go from first adoption of writing to national narrative histories in a few centuries. In Europe, consider how many national histories begin with a narrative covering the oral mythological history...

England - Anglo-saxon Chronicle (9th century)

Poland - Gesta principorum Polonorum (early 12th century)

Russia - Tale of Bygone Years (1113)

Denmark - Gesta Danorum (1208)

Russia and Poland went from first adoption of Christianity and literacy to compiling a narrative chronicle of their prehistory, heavily full of myth, in under 150 years.

What would a genuinely pre-Valyrian expansion history from Westeros look like? Or a history written by Rhoynar?

At present, the oldest Torah scroll actually preserved on leather in full is from about late 12th century. The oldest leather codices of Christian bible are 4th century. Yet comparing with the divergences between masoretic and Septuagint, the Jewish tradition had transmitted Bible with minor changes since 3rd century BC, several generations of copies.

 

 

[Bael's Bastard]

4 minutes ago, JNR said:

The specific dates are not particularly relevant to me.  The logical sequence of events is everything.

However, it's interesting that in some cases the provided dates do not stand alone; they can be cross-verified.

For instance, consider that Jon and Ygritte did not grow up in the same culture and do not have the same educational history -- to say the very least -- and yet we get this exchange:

Here it's Ygritte who drops the timing, despite her free folk background. 

Notice that Jon, taught by Maester Luwin and living inside a literate culture, has no correction to make. He evidently thinks it was three thousand years ago too. 

So it seems that not only can the free folk count (despite being illiterate), but what Jon was taught, and what Ygritte was taught, despite their radically different cultures, cross-verify each other on the chronology.  They only disagree on the narrative fate of Gendel and his children.

The accuracy of the free folk in this matter shouldn't surprise us because various cultures in our world have proven able to remember, and correctly report, incredibly ancient events.  The Australian aborigines for instance have many tales, not just one or two, that describe, with remarkable accuracy, the rising of sea levels on the coast due to the global melting of glaciers. Analyses have repeatedly verified these tales as correct... and the tales thus appear to be up to twelve thousand years old. 

Broadly speaking, I think it's plain GRRM was working from a coherent timeline prior to AFFC, at which point he consciously decided to haze it up and introduce doubt about the timing. 

If so, I don't care.  Doesn't really matter much to my analysis if the First Men originally showed up twelve thousand years ago or ten thousand years ago.

I agree. I am inclined to think that Northerners like the Starks and Night's Watch historically had pretty accurate traditions of the number and names of their rulers and lord commanders, and the amount of time that had passed when the Andals arrived.

And as the Andals were never able to conquer the North with might, the first Andals to listen to and write down Northern traditions should have been receiving relatively accurate oral traditions. And the First Men of the North would have only been "conquered" with peace, trade, intermarriage, and the pen.

What the Andals did with those traditions they heard and recorded, or how they recorded them, intentionally or unintentionally, is another matter.

IMO, if the Northerners today have a significantly inaccurate account of the length of their own history, it is likely a result of a transition from strong oral histories to the delicacies of literacy, and to relying on the written accounts and speculations of septons, maesters, etc. that are infused with skepticism of the accounts in the oral accounts they received and tore to pieces.

As we can see, they have an impossible time agreeing on timelines from their own post-Andal invasion period, so the idea that they and their skepticism can be relied on for the millennia before they stepped foot in Westeros should be apparently absurd.

[Werthead]

8 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Elaborate.

The story of Troy passed down through oral histories for centuries before Homer wrote it down. People thought it was a splendid but total fabrication, until the ruins of Troy were discovered and subsequent evidence has suggested that those oral stories were far more accurate than anyone believed (at least in terms of there being a huge war between Greek city-states and a Hittite colony).

[Lord Varys]

George doesn't create the view of an oral culture which actually hands down key elements of their culture and history orally. He repeatedly makes it clear that singers and the like actually do invent songs or change them to fit a given a audience/benefactor.

Perhaps this was different in the past, perhaps not. But the oral stories we have today - even those from Old Nan - are not really all that reliable. And it should get worse the more time has passed.

The Troy example isn't really fitting, by the way. People forget the a city - the location in a story - actually existed once. If London fell into ruins and was forgotten some guy rediscovering drawing on information in Arthur Conan Doyle isn't going to mean Sherlock Holmes existed, right?

Just as the existence of Troy and a bunch of other places doesn't make the Greek pantheon real, or any of the kings and heroes fighting at Troy.

And even oral traditions - like the Nibelungenlied, drawing on real people like Theodoric the Great or Attila - completely butcher both their 'real-world characters' as well as the events the stories are supposedly based on.

I think Yandel's take on the Battle of the Seven Stars - which really seems to be a scholarly retelling of this founding myth of the Andals in the Vale - is very telling in this regard. It *may be* that all the people mentioned therein did exist once, but it is pretty clear that there are no good sources on the events there, as especially the presence of Lady Forlorn in the story indicates. In a proper septon's tale or singer's version the Corbrays would of course always had the super sword, regardless whether the real Corbrays actually had it this far in the past.

[Ran]

The Lady Forlorn presence isn't really an issue, since as we know families would repeatedly name heirloom swords the same things. There were other swords named Ice, just as there were other Lady Forlorns. Its being called valyrian steel was an error in the writing, and ought to be corrected. Though to be sure, doubtless some of the songs do say it's the same sword.

I think a good example would be to actually look at the dating of the Trojan War. Various efforts were made by the ancients, based on the legendary genealogy of the Spartan kings, and the range of dates they came up with were amazingly close to the dates that archaeologists believe best fit their finding at Hissarlik despite being as much as 1000 years removed from the events, and with a part of that time being a period where traditions were passed orally rather than written.

Oral histories can be quite solid.

But then again, sometimes not, as GRRM cites with the example of the Old Testament genealogies which really do have characters living hundreds of years.

[Lord Varys]

51 minutes ago, Ran said:

The Lady Forlorn presence isn't really an issue, since as we know families would repeatedly name heirloom swords the same things. There were other swords named Ice, just as there were other Lady Forlorns. Its being called valyrian steel was an error in the writing, and ought to be corrected. Though to be sure, doubtless some of the songs do say it's the same sword.

Well, originally you a Valyrian steel sword in there, if I recall correctly, and thinking now more from an *unreliability angle* it could have actually underlined the *the singers/septons are not reliable* concept some more.

But then - I recall my previous self trying to find explanations as to how the Corbrays may have had a Valyrian steel sword back then, especially in light of the 'the Andals are fleeing from the Valyrians' angle.

51 minutes ago, Ran said:

Oral histories can be quite solid.

But then again, sometimes not, as GRRM cites with the example of the Old Testament genealogies which really do have characters living hundreds of years.

George doesn't really draw from the solid part of them, though. His ancient heroes are deliberately larger than life figures, and while there are hints that there is part 'god' and part 'monster' in some of them, most of them seem to have been made greater - or have been invented out of whole cloth - by singers and storytellers. It is not that there is a proper history on the ancient days in addition to tales and songs. We have only the songs and stories beyond a certain point (unlike the real world where certain chronicles and non-legendary give us the hints on what real events, say, the Nibelungenlied is based on).

And you have tried to hammer home the fact that you designed TWoIaF deliberately so that the ancient past appeared more glorious than it actually were.

And overall - a very weird blank spot in the setting is that the North's culture actually got andalized without even being conquered. There are no Children there anymore, never mind the Pact, nor do the Starks and other Northmen actually have their own greenseers beneath their weirwoods - which would be an infinitely better way to store and transfer knowledge than runes on trees, tales and songs, or chronicles written on parchment.

How and why is it that this never happened?

That's a question that needs to be explained further down the road, I'd think.