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[spoiler] Dragonlore (dragons, dragonriders, dragon eggs, dragon skulls, you name it)


Lord Varys

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Alright, I've been going over my notes on various topics.  Now we turn to dragon lineages (narrow focus, not the more "magic" questions about Dragon behavior).

Unfortunately, we learned very little new information in Fire & Blood:

  • Morning is the only new coloration we learn:  pale pink, with black crest and horns. 
  • It still doesn't directly state what color Vhagar was.
  • Morning is also technically the first dragon with a confirmed parent: her egg was laid by Syrax
  • For some reason, the "half a dozen hatchlings" mentioned in Sons of the Dragon was changed to "a dozen hatchlings" in Fire & Blood version.  Largely irrelevant, as sometimes hatchlings die, or got eaten by the Cannibal, so a count of "unnamed hatchlings" doesn't amount to much.  
  • Dragons started being born deformed and twisted close to and after the Dance.  Not only that Rhaena's first hatchling died within hours, but the deformed monster that hatched for Alyn Velaryon's daughter Laena.  Wingless/armless, killed after it hatched and attacked her.  I fear we may see more of this in Volume 2.  The poisoning of the Maesters?  Who knows.  But beyond our current scope....
  • Which of Jaehaerys's children were dragon-riders - and which dragons knew prior riders:  His eldest son Aemon claimed Caraxes, his second son Baelon claimed Vhagar (unridden since Visenya's death), and Baelon's sister-wife Alyssa had Meleys.  Meleys was the fastest dragon in her youth.  
  • It's remarked that the "female" dragons were regularly laying eggs.
  • It's definitively stated that no one ever saw Sheepstealer again.  Earlier line in World book that "their fate wasn't known until years later" simply refers to that guards stumbled on her in the Mountains of the Moon at one point, explaining how they know the Burned Men worshiped her - but stating neither of them were ever seen after that.
  • And of course, the biggest information:  all but stated that Daenerys's three dragon eggs are not from Asshai, but actually stolen from Dragonstone, and thus part of the Targaryen dragon lineage. 

Obviously, I'm dealing with Watsonian speculation, and we must remain cognizant of the Doylist "Maybe Martin himself doesn't know or didn't think this out".  I.e. we can speculate what color Vhagar SHOULD be, but Elio has said "Martin just plain didn't think of it yet" for the World book.

"Dragon generations" are an inherently problematic question, given that their eggs can lay dormant for many years.  It DOES seem implied that the Targaryens at this time were regularly hatching them not long after they were laid (into hatchlings who didn't always survive)

By the Dance of the Dragons, at least, I FUNCTIONALLY group them into size classes - which usually correlate with age.  Helps to remember it by number of each (1 Super-Large, 8 Large, 8 Medium to Light, and 3 hatchlings; adds up to 20 dragons):

  • Super-Large:  Vhagar
  • Large:  Vermithor, Silverwing, Caraxes, Meleys, Syrax, Dreamfyre, Sheepstealer, the Cannibal
  • Medium to Light:  Sunfyre, Tessarion, Seasmoke, Vermax, Arrax, Tyraxes, Grey Ghost, Moondancer
  • Hatchlings: Stormcloud, Morghul, Shrykos

That's just how I remember it / memorized it from reading TPATQ.  Also it's kind of broad - sort of like dogs or horses, there's variation, sometimes you just get an unusually small older one or unusually fast-growing young one.  Dreamfyre is one of the second generation dragons - the first one we heard about after Quicksilver, Fire & Blood confirms, but she was notoriously "slender" and delicate-looking.  Sometimes you just get a slender greyhound compared to a mastiff.  And "Medium to Light" ranges from Sunfyre to Moondancer - Sunfyre was not considered "huge"  but turned out to be a very formidable fighter, while on the other end of the spectrum, Moondancer was barely big enough to carry a young girl.

Heirs of the Dragon section just mentions the younger generation's dragons as they pop up, but while it gives dates for Vermax-Arrax-Tyraxes it doesn't for the greens' dragons.  

(shrug)

It does seem that Syrax was near the end of that older generation of "huge" dragons by the Dance.  I mean, she's called "huge" but it was Rhaenyra who named her, she had no prior rider, and she was a couple of decades younger than Caraxes or Meleys.  What's the break between Syrax - youngest of the "large" and Sunfyre, largest of the "mediums"?  Whatever.

Dragon reproduction as you all know allows them to switch back and forth from male to female - in real life animals that do engage in "Sequential Hermaphroditism", they only actually change sex ONCE, not back again, btw.  

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(Mushroom also claims that Vermax left a clutch of dragon’s eggs at Winterfell, which is equally absurd. Whilst it is true that determining the sex of a living dragon is a nigh on impossible task, no other source mentions Vermax producing so much as a single egg, so it must be assumed that he was male. Septon Barth’s speculation that the dragons change sex at need, being “as mutable as flame,” is too ludicrous to consider.)

WE know they can switch, but what's interesting is that there are dragons THEY consider "female" because they saw them laying eggs.  The wrinkle added to this by Fire & Blood is that the ones they thought were female actually laid eggs pretty regularly, it says.  

It's not "oh we saw Tessarion laying an egg ONCE so we realized she was female".  

Those who did lay eggs laid them frequently, while the allegedly "male" ones either didn't, or did it rarely enough and in seclusion that they didn't know.

The regular egg-layers were called "Queens", and included:

  • Vhagar - considered female, had eggs with Balerion ("Balerion, Vhagar, and their get")
  • Dreamfyre - laid multiple clutches of eggs, some of which hatched
  • Meleys - the Red Queen
  • Tessarion - the Blue Queen
  • Silverwing - ….considered female, not called a "Queen", but a mated pair with Vermithor.  

Quicksilver and Caraxes are referred to inconsistently:  Quicksilver is usually called female, Caraxes usually male, and this is a question for the "Errata" section....

So this is just idle speculation.   The problem of course is that the Targaryens may have had other eggs that the original four besides Balerion left behind on Dragonstone - siblings of Vhagar and Meraxes.

Another fear is that they never knew, in universe, who laid which eggs....though they considered some dragons female because they laid eggs, so clearly they must have SEEN them lay eggs.  Why call Tessarion an egg-layer if they never saw her lay them?  And Dreamfyre laid some.  

And who the heck sired Dreamfyre's eggs?  She laid two clutches before Rhaena even started flying her, and another clutch...on Fair Isle?  With no other dragons around?  Years after Quicksilver died? (If Quicksilver even did sire them....in which case, why do they still consider it female?)

At any rate, I'm reasonably sure that Vermax, Arrax, and Tyraxes were hatched from eggs laid by Syrax, and that they were sired by Caraxes…..given the way that Heirs of the Dragon phrases it, that Syrax, Caraxes, and Vhagar were spending a lot of time together:

 

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Whilst Princess Rhaenyra misliked her stepmother, Queen Alicent, she became fond and more than fond of her good-sister Lady Laena. With Driftmark and Dragonstone so close, Daemon and Laena oft visited with the princess, and her with them. Many a time they flew together on their dragons, and the princess’s she-dragon Syrax produced several clutches of eggs.

It seems clear from this that Caraxes at least sired some eggs with Syrax - though not 100% confirmed they became Vermax etc.

The only other bit of info is that when the Dragonpit was finished in 56 AC, Balerion was kept there along with "three younger dragons" - and it's also stated that Vermithor and Silverwing were kept separate at the Red Keep, and Dreamfyre was with Rhaena at Harrenhal.  These three younger ones were probably Vhagar, Caraxes, and Meleys - the three dragons claimed by Jaehaerys's children.  It isn't impossible that one of them was Syrax, but she only starts being mentioned decades later when Rhaenyra claimed her, so I doubt it.  Not one of the Medium to Lights.  Plus the Cannibal and Sheepstealer were never kept at the Dragonpit…..and how the heck did some dragons go "wild" when unclaimed?  Wouldn't they keep them in the Dragonpit?  Or is it that they can't really keep them there if they don't want to stay? (shrug)

At any rate, there were 21 named dragons after the three Conquest-era ones.  

20 during the Dance, minus Vhagar, plus Morning and Quicksilver.

That's not an impossible number to work with, really.  

"Generation 3" might be difficult, but the immediate second-Generation dragons...we might have more luck...

So we're moving ahead with a god-damned big assumption that:

  • 1 - Eggs hatched fairly quickly or not at all.  Thus the pre-Conquest four dragons didn't leave behind other eggs which later hatched, and third-generation dragons usually hatched soon after they were laid.
  • 2 - Vhagar stopped laying eggs as she got older.  Otherwise, Shrykos could be one of Vhagar's for all we know.

….(sigh) it's easier to start with the second generation, at least, though using the assumption that none of them are from those original four, but all sired by Balerion (by either Vhagar or Meraxes):

Dreamfyre, Meleys, Silverwing we're considering "egg layers".  Assuming Quicksilver didn't leave any....I think...ah, crud.....

I think Quicksilver was probably laid by Meraxes, as they were both silver, and kind of makes sense that her son would have her dragon's progeny.  I don't know if coloration indicates anything definitively, as with dogs or horses.  

They had "a dozen" hatchlings near the end of Aegon I's reign, but only half that many by 56 AC?

Our only other, frankly BAD guess is Dragon Coloration as indicating anything.  Which it might not.

It's no accident that Drogon looks like Balerion:  he's not just a reincarnation or something, he may literally be Balerion's SON....or perhaps, grandson.  

…..interesting that just as Meraxes was silver/white with gold highlights, Viserions is white-cream with gold highlights....

My functional guess is actually that it Vhagar was GREEN, with bronze highlights, so that Daenerys's trio are an exact mirror of the original set (that's Rhaegal's coloration).  

 

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Another coloration issue is that...in heraldry terms, "argent" can mean anything from silver to white, grey gets mixed in there, and "or" can mean a range of colors from "gold" to yellow to orange.  Syrax was "yellow", but Sunfyre was outright "gold", like the metal.  

Meanwhile, some dragons had eye coloration - does that match their secondary color?  Meraxes had gold eyes....does that mean she had gold horns and crest?  The Cannibal was coal black, but with "baleful green eyes" - so were his horns green too or not?  Unclear.

The only colors we never found out fall into three clusters:  Vhagar, "the three sons of Rhaenyra" (Vermax-Arrax-Tyraxes) and "hatchlings during the Dance" (Stormcloud, Morghul, Shrykos).

So, playing around with the frankly fanfic assumption that coloration is an indication of heredity, AND that size class roughly indicates generation, AND that Vhagar didn't lay more eggs later in life, just playing around with this, we have:

Generation 1:

  • Balerion - Black, with red highlights
  • Meraxes - Silver, with "gold eyes" (Gold highlights?)
  • Vhagar - Unknown 

Generation 2:

  • Vermithor - Bronze, with Tan
  • Silverwing - described as yes, "silvery" in F&B.  Confirmed "Female", probable egg-layer.
  • Dreamfyre - light blue, with silver.  Egg-layer.
  • Quicksilver - "silvery"
  • Caraxes - blood red
  • Meleys - scarlet red, with copper highlights.  Egg-layer.
  • Syrax - yellow
  • The Cannibal - coal black, with baleful green eyes
  • Sheepstealer - an ugly "mud brown"

Generation 3:

  • Sunfyre - shining gold, with pale pink wing membranes
  • Tessarion - dark cobalt blue, with copper highlights.  Egg-layer.
  • Seasmoke - pale silver-grey
  • Vermax, Arrax, Tyraxes - unknown
  • Grey Ghost - pale grey-white
  • Moondancer - pale green, with pearl highlights
  • Morning - technically Gen-3, given that she was confirmed laid by Syrax.  Pale pink, with black highlights.

Generation 4:

  • Stormcloud
  • Morghul
  • Shrykos

I think it probable that Morghul and Shrykos were laid by Tessarion, hence "the Blue Queen".  Stormcloud may have been laid by Syrax for all we know.  Colorations all unknown.  

So for the Gen-2's....let's assume color transmits, and that Vhagar was green/bronze.  In that scenario:
 

  • Vermithor gets bronze from mother Vhagar
  • Silverwing, Quicksilver, and Dreamfyre all got their silver coloration from Meraxes
  • Caraxes and Meleys got their red coloration from Balerion's secondary color, Meleys more probably a Meraxes-Balerion pairing (both "Mer-" names), unclear.  

….ah, screw it, this falls apart.  Too many assumptions.

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2 hours ago, The Dragon Demands said:
  • And of course, the biggest information:  all but stated that Daenerys's three dragon eggs are not from Asshai, but actually stolen from Dragonstone, and thus part of the Targaryen dragon lineage. 

 

Not necessarily. The Sea Lord might have been right that he did not have the eggs, and they arrived safely in Asshai with the ship.

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On 11/25/2018 at 1:07 AM, Jaak said:

8) Jaehaerys/6)Vermithor

9) Alysanne/7)Silverwing

Page 57: Rhaena put eggs into cradle for both.

Page 74: In 42, Jaehaerys and Alysanne were 7 and 5 (Aenys died before their birthdays) and Vermithor and Silverwing had hatched and lit Aenys´ pyre.

Page 95: In 44, Jaehaerys and Alysanne, at most 10 and 8, fled with dragons. It is NOT specified how, or if they then flew.

Page 103: In 48, Jaehaerys and Alysanne are expressly stated to be 14 and 12, and Jaehaerys "rode" dragon, Alysanne is said to "command".

Page 109: Jaehaerys, Rhaena and Alysanne descended on Red Keep on their dragons. Meaning that Alysanne specifically rode.

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On 11/25/2018 at 1:07 AM, Jaak said:

10) Aerea+/1)Balerion

Observe:

Rhaena had put dragon eggs in cradles of her siblings Jaehaerys and Alysanne - with result that at ages 7 and 5, their dragons had hatched and could be commanded to fire.

For some reason, she gave no eggs to her own children! At 11, they were still dragonless.

In page 203, Aerea, age 8 in 51...52, started to "count the days until she could mount one". Count to what?

Rhaena had flown at 12, but she had had own dragon since 9. Alysanne had flown by 12, but she had had own dragon by 5!

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@The Dragon Demands

I also tried to make a genealogical tree of the dragons based on color. My thesis was:

  • Balerion (male, black)+ Meraxes (female, silver) = Quicksilver (silver)
  • Balerion (male, black) + Vhagar (female, reddish?) = Sheepstealer (brownish) , Caraxes (red), Meleys (red)
  • Balerion (male, black)+ Quicksilver (female, silver) = Dreamfyre (pale blue), Silverwing (silver)
  • Vhagar (male, reddish?) + Quicksilver (female, silver) = Vermithor (bronze)

I think it somehow fits, timewise and colorwise, and I like that Aenys received an egg from his parent's dragons, and his children received all eggs from his dragon.

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On 11/25/2018 at 1:07 AM, Jaak said:

11) Aemon/8)Caraxes

12)Baelon/2)Vhagar

13)Alyssa/9)Meleys

Page 240 - year 55. A dragon egg is put in Aemon´s cradle. No mention of that for Daenerys - she was dragonless when she got shivers at six. Nor was it mentioned for other children...

page 297, in 72, Aemon is a husband, a knight and 17 and still dragonless when he tames Caraxes. No mention of Caraxes having hatched from the egg in his cradle. Likely it did not hatch.

Same page 297 - in 73, Baelon, age 16, tamed Vhagar.

Page 303 - in 75, age 15, Alyssa wanted to tame Balerion, but was persuaded to take Meleys instead.

Note: since Alysanne had been a dragon owner (though not rider) by age 5, had her children had eggs hatch, by 72 Vaegon and Daella might have had dragons as well. Yes, Daella was nervous of old dragons. But her own hatchling she´d raised since herself a toddler might have been a different matter.

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It does look as if any of Jaehaerys I's children had dragon eggs from which living dragons hatched. Aemon, Baelon, and Alyssa chose their dragons in the Dragonpit, they did not have preliminary bonds with dragons from their eggs. Gyldayn even tells us that such inevitably lead to the Targaryen claiming the dragon, so neither Aemon nor Alyssa would have chosen a dragon had they already one from an egg. And Baelon clearly didn't have a hatchling from an egg.

This means that none of Jaehaerys' children after Aemon got dragon eggs in their cradles.

Back during Rhaena's rule of Dragonstone there were dozens of unnamed hatchlings and drakes and grown dragons on Dragonstone, with only Balerion, Vhagar, and Dreamfyre having names yet.

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3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It does look as if any of Jaehaerys I's children had dragon eggs from which living dragons hatched. Aemon, Baelon, and Alyssa chose their dragons in the Dragonpit, they did not have preliminary bonds with dragons from their eggs. Gyldayn even tells us that such inevitably lead to the Targaryen claiming the rider, so neither Aemon nor Alyssa would have chosen a dragon had they already one from an egg. And Baelon clearly didn't have a hatchling from an egg.

This means that none of Jaehaerys' children after Aemon got dragon eggs in their cradles.

Back during Rhaena's rule of Dragonstone there were dozens of unnamed hatchlings and drakes and grown dragons on Dragonstone, with only Balerion, Vhagar, and Dreamfyre having names yet.

seems like perhaps carrying around the egg ends up killing the embryo instead leaving it in the dragon pit

 

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  • 3 months later...

I made a count on dragon numbers.

  • Prehistoy

Bones and legends and GRRM's remark prove once there were dragons everywhere, from Westeros to Essos, from Ib to Sothoryos.

As the magic decays, so do the dragons. At last only the Valyrians had dragons, and they mastered the art of how to train their dragon.

Someone like Septon Barth believed the Valyrian dragons is difference from the wild dragons. They were created from wyverns or firewyrms by bloodmagic.

 

  • Valyrian Freehold (ca. -5000 ~ -114 AC)

Only the forty dragonlord houses knew the secret of taming dragons. The Targaryens is one of the less powerful dragonlord houses, who owned 5 dragons as of -126 AC. Let's assume that number is half of the average dragon number in a dragonlord house, then the Freehold had around 5*2*40=400 dragons.

During the Second Spice War, the Freehold sent 300 dragons, which is a side proof that the Freehold had around 400 dragons with riders.

There should also be some wild dragons and baby dragons, the total dragon number is likely around 500.

 

  • After Doom (-114 AC ~ -2 AC)

Most dragons perished in The Doom of Valyria. Only a few survived:

5 were brought to Dragonstone by the Targaryens in -126 AC, one of them is Balerion, the other four died during the following century. (Some might already died by -114 AC)

A few dragons survived in Tyrosh and Lys, but were killed soon in the revolt.

The dragonlord Aurion had a dragon, which was lost with him in the ruin the Valyria.

Meraxes and Vhagar were hatched on Dragonstone some years later.

In total, there're at least 10 dragons, 7 of which unnamed.

 

  • The Conquest (-2 ~ 1 AC)

Balerion, Meraxes and Vhagar, 3 dragons.

 

  • Aegon I (1 ~ 37 AC)

7 AC, Quicksilver was hatched on Dragonstone.

10 AC, Meraxes killed in Dorne by scorpion.

ca. 32 AC, Dreamfyre was hatched on Dragonstone.

ca. 34 AC, Vermithor was hatched from Jaehaerys' cradle.

ca. 36 AC, Silverwing was hatched from Alysanne's cradle.

In the later years of Aegon's reign, a dozen dragons was hatched on Dragonstone. Save Dreamfyre, Cannibal was likely born during this period. The remaining 10 are unnamed.

By the beginning of 37 AC, there're 6 or 7 named dragons, and maybe 10 unnamed ones.

 

  • Aenys I (37 ~ 42 AC)

Later in 37 AC, two dragons were hatched on Dragonstone.

By 42 AC, there're 6 or 7 named dragons, and maybe 12 unnamed ones.

 

  • Maegor I (42 ~ 48 AC)

43 AC, Quicksilver was killed by Balerion.

Cannibal was almost surely born by this time, since he's older than Sheepstealer, who was born in Jaehaerys' youth.

By 48 AC, there're 6 named dragons. The unnamed dragons probably died some, and maybe we have 6 unnamed ones.

 

  • Jaehaerys I (48 ~ 103 AC)

ca. 51 AC, 3 eggs from Dreamfyre were hatched on Dragonstone.

It happened that Caraxes, Meleys and Sheepstealer were born around this time, likely they just hatched the very 3 eggs.

60 AC, when Jaehaerys' daughter Dany was dying, Jaehaerys asked for a hatchling from Dragonstone. It's probably the hatchlings from the 3 eggs of Dreamfyre that he had in mind.

94 AC, Balerion died of old age.

ca. 95 AC, Syrax and Seasmoke were hatched.

By 103 AC, there're 10 named dragons. The unnamed dragons probably died some, and maybe we have 3 unnamed ones.

 

  • Viserys I (103 ~ 129 AC)

ca. 110 AC, Sunfyre was hatched on Dragonstone. Tessarion was hatched a few years later.ca. 114~117 AC, Vermax, Arrax, Tyraxes were hatched from the cradles of Rhaenyra's "Strong boys".

ca. 116 AC, Daemon's daughter Rhaena's egg was hatched, only to die within hours.

ca. 120 AC, Stormcloud was hatched from Aegon III's cradle.ca. 123 AC, Morghul and Shrykos were hatched from Aegon II's twins' cradles.

ca. 125 AC, Moondancer was hatched on Dragonstone.

Wild dragon Grey Ghost was likely born during this period.

By 129 AC there're 20 named dragons. No unnamed ones anymore.

 

  • Dance of Dragons (129 ~ 131 AC)

During the Dance, Arrax, Meleys, Caraxes, Vhagar, Seasmoke, Vermithor, Grey Ghost, Moondancer, and Sunfyre were killed by dragons.

Vermax and Stormcloud killed by sailors.

Tessarion wounded mortally by dragons, killed by arrows later.

Dreamfyre, Syrax, Tyraxes, Morghul and Shrykos killed by mobs in King's Landing.

ca. 130 AC, Morning was hatched in the Vale.

By 131 AC there're 4 named dragons: Silverwing, Cannibal, Sheepstealer, and Morning. Sheepstealer was lost in the Vale with his rider.

 

  • Aegon III (131 ~ 157 AC)

132 AC, someone believe Alys Rivers hatched a dragon in Harrenhal.

135 AC, Oakenfist's daughter's egg hatched a freak, and was killed by him.

136~153 AC, Silverwing, Cannibal, and Morning died or lost of unknown reasons.

ca. 150 AC, the last two dragons were born on Dragonstone, both were freaks.

153 AC, the last dragon died in King's Landing. Dragons became extinct in Westeros. (Except maybe for Sheepstealer.)

For the following century, any attempts to bring dragons back failed all the same, till Dany...

 

  • Summary

Dragon Population History

In total there're at least 48 dragons (Dany's 3 not included) after the Doom, 10 were killed by dragons (9 during the Dance), 12 killed by men (8 during the Dance), 3 died from deformity, 1 of old age, 2 lost, 20 of unknown reasons.

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4 minutes ago, zionius said:

As the magic decays, so do the dragons.

No idea whether this had anything to do with a decay of magic. Could just as well have something to do with the rise of men and the power of their weapons.

4 minutes ago, zionius said:

During the Second Spice War, the Freehold sent 300 dragons, which is a side proof that the Freehold had around 400 dragons with riders.

There should also be some wild dragons and baby dragons, the total dragon number is likely around 500.

There is not enough data to make reasonable calculations like this. 300 dragonriders seem huge compared to what we know from later ages, but since we have no idea how many dragonriders Valyria dispatched to crush the Rhoynar we cannot calculate how many dragons there were in total at that time.

For instance, we do know that Valyria was usually ruled by a coalition government consisting of multiple influential dragonlord (and sorcerer) families. There may have been a huge opposition faction against the Rhoynar war, and if that was the case, then this factions could have refused to dispatch their dragonriders to the Rhoyne. Also, we don't know how many of the dragons the government controlled were dispatched. 300 could have been nearly all they had or only half that number. We have no idea.

4 minutes ago, zionius said:

Meraxes and Vhagar were hatched on Dragonstone some years later.

In total, there're at least 10 dragons, 7 of which unnamed.

We don't know whether more dragons than just Meraxes and Vhagar hatched during the Targaryen era on Dragonstone, just as we don't know that Aegon and his sisters only had Balerion, Meraxes, and Vhagar at the time of the Conquest. Aegon, Visenya, and Rhaenys clearly were the only dragonriders at that point, but there could have been other riderless/wild dragons on Dragonstone at that time, dragons that were not claimed by riders thereafter (for instance, the dragon of the late Lord Aerion Targaryen).

There is even the possibility that there were some aged Targaryen kin - a grandmother or great-grandmother, for instance, of some great-aunts - with dragons who were no longer able to ride them (like Alysanne could no longer ride Silverwing in in the later 90s). Gyldayn's brief account of the Conquest would not many any such people nor their dragons.

4 minutes ago, zionius said:

Cannibal was almost surely born by this time, since he's older than Sheepstealer, who was born in Jaehaerys' youth.

It is difficult to pinpoint that, since what we know about Sheepstealer's birth is that he hatched when the Old King was still young, which could mean that Sheepstealer only hatched after Jaehaerys I was king. Then the Cannibal could easily enough have hatched during the reign of Maegor or Aenys, rather than going back to the reign of the Conqueror.

Sheepstealer could easily enough be one of the many hatchlings that hatched while Rhaena ruled Dragonstone.

4 minutes ago, zionius said:

ca. 51 AC, 3 eggs from Dreamfyre were hatched on Dragonstone.

It happened that Caraxes, Meleys and Sheepstealer were born around this time, likely they just hatched the very 3 eggs.

Caraxes and Meleys strike me as pretty young dragons when they are claimed by their first riders years later, so I doubt they hatched in the early 50s.

4 minutes ago, zionius said:

60 AC, when Jaehaerys' daughter Dany was dying, Jaehaerys asked for a hatchling from Dragonstone. It's probably the hatchlings from the 3 eggs of Dreamfyre that he had in mind.

Or many of the other hatchlings that were around at that time. There is a passage in FaB when Gyldayn discusses Aerea and the dragons that implies that Dragonstone was literally crawling with hatchlings and drakes and grown dragons (Vhagar and Balerion included) in those days. One assumes that the older Cannibal started to keep the dragon population in check, especially those who left the controlled environment of the Targaryen hatcheries and caverns.

Later on, we also hear of many unnamed dragons living in the Dragonpit in addition to the named dragons Jaehaerys' children do claim. This implies that, for a time at least, the dragons actually procreated in the Dragonpit, too - or the Targaryens moved some hatchling from Dragonstone to the Dragonpit to mature there.

How it is that only dragons bonded to various riders live in the Dragonpit during the Dance I really don't know. But the picture drawn during the reign of Jaehaerys I is at odds with the picture drawn during the Storm of the Dragonpit in 130 AC.

4 minutes ago, zionius said:

ca. 95 AC, Syrax and Seasmoke were hatched.

No idea when exactly either of those hatched, do we? All we know is that they were young when they future riders were young, too.

4 minutes ago, zionius said:

ca. 125 AC, Moondancer was hatched on Dragonstone.

We have no idea when Moondancer was hatched, do we? Nor that Rhaena's original dragon hatched much earlier than Moondancer. Keep in mind that Baela and Rhaena were born in Pentos and thus didn't get any eggs in their cradles. They first had to be presented to the king to be welcomed into the royal family and might only have gotten eggs some years later when Syrax produced another clutch of eggs. Only Rhaenyra's sons got dragon eggs into their cradles per royal decree.

This could help explain why Vermax, Arrax, and Tyraxes seem to be somewhat larger than Moondancer during the Dance.

4 minutes ago, zionius said:

Wild dragon Grey Ghost was likely born during this period.

I'd assume that he was somewhat older, having hatched late during the reign of Jaehaerys I or early during the reign of Viserys I. Sunfyre could have been somewhat older than Aegon II, being chosen as dragon for the king's son because he was the most beautiful dragon to ever hatch. Also, his elusive lifestyle and his habit of living exclusively off fish could have slowed his growth compared to the well-fed castle dragons.

4 minutes ago, zionius said:

153 AC, the last dragon died in King's Landing. Dragons became extinct in Westeros. (Except maybe for Sheepstealer.)

One assumes Sheepstealer was known or believed to be dead by that time, too. Sheepstealer was seen alive by civilized people during the Regency, but his carcass may have been found by some Vale men in the late 140s or early 150s, before the last dragon died.

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Every figure after a "ca." would certainly has an error of quite a few years, it's just the best guess at hand.

57 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

It is difficult to pinpoint that, since what we know about Sheepstealer's birth is that he hatched when the Old King was still young, which could mean that Sheepstealer only hatched after Jaehaerys I was king. Then the Cannibal could easily enough have hatched during the reign of Maegor or Aenys, rather than going back to the reign of the Conqueror.

No one in 130 AC knew when was the Cannibal born, but they knew he's older than Sheepstealer. So I guess they learnt that from Cannibal was way larger than Sheepstealer, therefore I assume he's at least 10 years older than Sheepstealer, so that size difference is still telling in 130 AC. Therefore I think Aegon I/Aenys I period is most probable. Besides it also mentioned unnamed dragons born in that period.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

We have no idea when Moondancer was hatched, do we? Nor that Rhaena's original dragon hatched much earlier than Moondancer. Keep in mind that Baela and Rhaena were born in Pentos and thus didn't get any eggs in their cradles. They first had to be presented to the king to be welcomed into the royal family and might only have gotten eggs some years later when Syrax produced another clutch of eggs. Only Rhaenyra's sons got dragon eggs into their cradles per royal decree.

That's a nice catch!

I estimated Moondancer's birth year from the fact that it's still not large enough for ride in 129 AC. It seems the dragons before Dany's period usually take 3-10 years to grow large enough for ride.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Sheepstealer was seen alive by civilized people during the Regency, but his carcass may have been found by some Vale men in the late 140s or early 150s, before the last dragon died.

Interesting idea! Also I just found I forgot Cannibal was also lost in record after Dance in the OP.

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1 hour ago, zionius said:

No one in 130 AC knew when was the Cannibal born, but they knew he's older than Sheepstealer. So I guess they learnt that from Cannibal was way larger than Sheepstealer, therefore I assume he's at least 10 years older than Sheepstealer, so that size difference is still telling in 130 AC. Therefore I think Aegon I/Aenys I period is most probable. Besides it also mentioned unnamed dragons born in that period.

I doubt size was the only criteria to conclude that the Cannibal existed. Since he was a dragon cannibal they would find out that he existence when he first started to attack/devour other dragons and raid the accessible hatcheries.

Although I assume that the Cannibal's career as a cannibal could only have begun after Balerion and Vhagar and Dreamfyre were no longer housed on Dragonstone, meaning this kind of thing started in the 60s, after the Dragonpit was opened.

In any way, the Cannibal could easily have been one of the hatchlings from Aegon's reign, one of those from Maegor's reign, or even one of those from Rhaena's reign on Dragonstone - if Sheepstealer (a dragon whose singularly bad looks may have allowed people to recognize the ugly hatchling in the ugly grown dragon) only hatched in the first couple of years of the Old King's reign - meaning the time from 48 to, say, 60-65 AC. Jaehaerys I certainly would have still been 'young' in that period.

Dragon size is not necessarily a good measure for age - and in that context it is important to keep in mind that the story about Rhaena putting the eggs into the cradles of Jaehaerys and Alysanne is deliberately referred to as 'a legend'. It may not be the truth - and if it was not, in fact, true, then this may help us explain why Vermithor and Silverwing are large enough in 48 AC to challenge Balerion. Because they may not have hatched in the 30s but rather in the 20s or earlier still, being only claimed by Jaehaerys and Alysanne when they fled from the island with their mother - who, I assume, rode on Vermithor alongside Jaehaerys.

If Vermithor and Silverwing were as large in 48 AC as Vermax and Arrax are in 129 AC then they trying to challenge Balerion would have been an utter joke - meaning that either these two dragons were much older than just 10+ years, or they grew much faster than some of the other dragons.

The claim that Vermithor is nearly 100 years old in 130 AC sort of undercuts the idea that he hatched long before Jaehaerys I's own birth, but since the circumstances of his hatching a legend rather than history implies that people simply may not have good information on the circumstances of Vermithor's birth.

1 hour ago, zionius said:

That's a nice catch!

I estimated Moondancer's birth year from the fact that it's still not large enough for ride in 129 AC. It seems the dragons before Dany's period usually take 3-10 years to grow large enough for ride.

See above.

1 hour ago, zionius said:

Interesting idea! Also I just found I forgot Cannibal was also lost in record after Dance in the OP.

Oh, I think we can ignore that now, can't we? The Cannibal didn't go anywhere in FaB and (apparently) showed up for Corlys Velaryon's funeral for some reason. Nobody recorded him disappearing in 131-136 AC which only allows as to conclude that he was still alive and kicking at the end of FaB I. He certainly could 'disappear' rather than die in 136-153 AC, but he certainly could have another rider before that happens - just as Silverwing is likely going to carry another rider before she finally dies.

Over all, the first Targaryens who are confirmed to have gotten eggs in their cradles seem to be Rhaenyra's sons. She and Laenor may have both gotten hatchlings, and of Alicent's children Aegon II, Helaena, and Aemond all didn't get eggs. Daeron may have gotten an egg from the same clutch as Jacaerys. And afterwards Lucerys, Joffrey, Baela and Rhaena, and eventually Aegon the Younger, Viserys, Jaehaerys, Jaehaera, and Maelor all got eggs.

Oddly enough the first confirmed egg-giving would have been Daemon's unborn bastard by Mysaria, possibly indicating that Rhaenyra was indeed the first Targaryen to get an egg into the cradle (Aemon may also have gotten an egg, but either nothing came of that or things got very weird between Aemon bonding and Aemon claiming Caraxes). Laenor may have been the first Velaryon to get an egg, considering that Rhaenys' Meleys may have produced eggs the Velaryons may have controlled.

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4 hours ago, zionius said:

In total there're at least 48 dragons (Dany's 3 not included) after the Doom, 10 were killed by dragons (9 during the Dance), 12 killed by men (8 during the Dance), 3 died from deformity, 1 of old age, 2 lost, 20 of unknown reasons.

I'm guessing a number of the dragons included in the 20 count were killed by Cannibal.

On 12/26/2018 at 1:15 AM, The Dragon Demands said:

 ….ah, screw it, this falls apart.  Too many assumptions.

And Balerion was one of five dragons that the Targaryens brought with them when they moved to Dragonstone. And I assume they would have brought some dragon eggs with them as well as they were moving all their worldly possessions. So there are at least four dragons of unknown coloring that could be contributing to the Dragon gene pool.

Also as an aside, I put Balerion in an earlier generation than Vhagar and Meraxes. He's at least 75 years older than Vhagar and could potentially have sired both Meraxes and Vhagar, which throws an extra wrench into your figurings.

 

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In the first book, Tyrion describes Vhagar's skull as big enough to ride a horse down it's gullet. He also says that Balerion could have swallowed a woolly mammoth and Meraxes was bigger than Vhagar. I assume Tyrion didn't make a mistake identifying the skulls. Meraxes was born on Dragonstone (after 126 BC) and died in 10 AC which means Meraxes was definitely not older than 135 years and probably considerably younger than that. Vhagar on the other hand lived to 181 years old, so had at least 46 more years in which to grow than Meraxes and yet was not larger than Meraxes. Seems to me that Vhagar must have been considerably smaller than Meraxes during the conquest and yet I don't remember any note of that size discrepancy.

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I'm not sure that's what I said. What I believe I indicated is that it must indeed be the case that Meraxes was larger than Vhagar at their respective times of death, despite the different ages at their deaths. One possible reason for this is that Vhagar spent decades in the Dragonpit and that this constrained the dragon's growth over that time frame, and another may simply be the case (and it does seem to be the case!) that dragons are not naturally all the precise same size -- there is variation between them, just as there are variations between people in terms of height. It may well be that had Meraxes lived longer, it would have surpassed Balerion, whereas Vhagar never would have done so even if it had lived another hundred years.

 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Ran said:

I'm not sure that's what I said. What I believe I indicated is that it must indeed be the case that Meraxes was larger than Vhagar at their respective times of death, despite the different ages at their deaths. One possible reason for this is that Vhagar spent decades in the Dragonpit and that this constrained the dragon's growth over that time frame, and another may simply be the case (and it does seem to be the case!) that dragons are not naturally all the precise same size -- there is variation between them, just as there are variations between people in terms of height. It may well be that had Meraxes lived longer, it would have surpassed Balerion, whereas Vhagar never would have done so even if it had lived another hundred years.

The fact that Drogon grows faster and is larger than the other two dragons essentially confirms that equal age does not necessarily mean equal size.

Vermithor also seems to have been larger than both Dreamfyre at the time of his death, despite the fact that Silverwing would have been only a couple of years younger than Vermithor and Dreamfyre would have been older than him (if their respective origin stories are correct).

However, it could be easily enough established that Tyrion actually confused Vhagar's and Meraxes' skulls in the dark, or that whoever moved the skulls misidentified them, causing Tyrion to confuse them.

But one assumes the best way to make sense of this the size conundrum here would be to assume that Meraxes hatched immediately after Aenar moved to Dragonstone whereas Vhagar would have then only followed in 52 BC, decades later. If Meraxes was already over a century old when she died in 10 AC then this certainly could help explain why she was nearly as large as Balerion at the time of her death.

We have to keep in mind that not only Vhagar continued to grow until she died in 130 AC, but Balerion continued to grow for decades, too, after the Conquest, meaning that Balerion and Vhagar were nowhere near their final size on the Field of Fire. In fact, back then Meraxes may have been the largest of the three dragons, if she grew much faster than both Vhagar and Balerion. And since Balerion was likely just a hatchling or a very young drake when Aenar left Valyria (due to the fact that Selmy would be very wrong in his claim that Balerion was about 200 years old when he died) Meraxes and Balerion could be actually be rather close in age, being, perhaps, only a couple of years apart.

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