She Smells Dornish: Perfume, Corruption, Poison... The Treasons of Dorne against Aerys II

[TheSeason]

On ‎11‎/‎25‎/‎2018 at 11:23 PM, Ralphis Baratheon said:

The War of the Ninepenny Kings took place in the Stepstones, which is closer to Dorne than any other Kingdom in Westeros, so one would assume they'd raise as much troops as possible, not just to join the offensive, but to protect it's border.

Why? You're saying that because this united war effort took place near Dorne that Dorne needs must field the bulk of their forces when other kingdoms don't, who are all facing the same existential threat (as you said, if they make it to Dorne, they're coming for the other kingdoms next; just like the wildlings during the Battle for the Wall would steamroll from north to south before meeting an army that could stop them; if Westeros weren't in-fighting, they'd have taken that threat of 100k wildlings seriously, as they did in the Ninepenny Kings' war or the Ironborn war and all ridden north to crush them), and that's not necessarily true. 

And even if they did, your argument runs into two problems: 

1. Say the Dornish are fielding 15k alone (which, I think is by far too much) and Aerys II sees their banners. When the Dornish are deliberately pushing the 50k lie, please tell me why he should presume they've fielded most of their army?

2. The Dornish are still promoting this lie even to royalty as of Dance. How are we to understand that they stopped for Aerys II and Jaehaerys II (randomly) but have started up again after their lie was publicly busted (remember, Barristan Selmy is with Dany when this lie was pushed upon her and he did not object that 50k wasn't possible either)? The Dornish continuously promote this lie, and, as king, Aerys II had a good reason to expect truthful answers (high treason; heads, spikes, walls!). Suggesting that he was at fault for someone else's high treasonous lie because he did not make observation xyz in his youth is absurd. When a monarch asks how many are you able to field, or any other question for that matter, you answer truthfully. Furthermore, I do think it also absurd to think Aerys II never inquired with his allies in wartime (or anticipating of wartime) of military matters; that's part of raising allies and raising armies (e.g. Hoster Tully, Ned Stark and Jon Arryn). Not to mention, the number a kingdom can field fluctuates over years; in hard times (say, a plague is on or the economy is recessed), they field fewer soldiers; in good times (prosperity and a population boom), they field more soldiers. There's nothing wrong with asking this question; what's wrong is perjuring oneself to a king. And if Aerys had failed to ask such an important question, relying upon an old misquoted book or memories from his youth of what the Dornish did before instead of asking the Dornish princess herself, wouldn't we think him inept or give this as further evidence of his "madness" or "erratic behavior" for which he needed Tywin Lannister to tell him what to do?

As for the "primary reason" for betrothing Elia and Rhaegar--I no longer think it is, but is at most a minor consideration or an excuse (House Martell is better than House Lannister for "this" reason), or more likely a misunderstanding. The primary reason for this betrothal on both ends (Aerys II, Princess of Dorne) was vengeance against Tywin Lannister (Elia is only a part of this deal, and the other parts of this deal reveal its truer nature). They even rub his nose in it at the Tourney of Lannisport, where Tywin plotted to have Cersei betrothed to Rhaegar and received only insults as answers. Even Oberyn speaks of Elia's betrothal to Rhaegar in terms of his mother's (and Aerys's) "tilt" against Tywin Lannister (with Rhaegar as the prize, or "the king of love and beauty"). Then we have Rhaegar, who married for "duty," (although this is in no way unusual for a prince or high lord), for which the "duty" has multiple elements and not all of them worthy. 

On ‎11‎/‎25‎/‎2018 at 11:23 PM, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Can you show the text where Aerys II asked the Princess of Dorne how many troops Dorne could raise and where the Princess of Dorne gave him false information?  Can you show the text where Aerys II and the Princess of Dorne or Doran Martell discuss Dorne's military strength? 

I'm happy to put forth my evidence for my theory, and I do think there is a preponderance of it, but I haven't completed editing it yet. I said above that I don't even know how this topic came to be (I was working in the text box when it submitted itself when I pressed the enter key to move to another paragraph). That said, although there is a preponderance of evidence to suggest what happened, if you're looking for a single direct quote that says they corresponded on this matter, you're not going to get it. It's compelling evidence built upon compelling evidence built upon compelling evidence that brings the theory together. Prince Lewyn and Prince Quentyn Nymeros Martell (and the deliberate parallels made between them) are a great starting place, though; although Lewyn is a "prince," he's not the same kind of prince that Quentyn is (nor serving a similar role), so that parallel is interpreted in this essay as Martin saying "pay attention here." It's a bit like an R+L=J theory, solving a mystery, with no single direct quote saying "xyz," but with sufficient evidence at least to make such a conclusion; and, in fact, a Dany-Quentyn parallel excerpt (I'd be happy to include in a PM) is the closest you'll get to that single direct quote revealing the reason for Aerys's changing opinions on Dorne and Rhaegar. I'm happy to tell you more about it in a PM, if you're trying to determine whether or not you're interested. But, I'm afraid, there are so many quotes in this essay that it might take me a little time to pull it all together properly edited and formatted for the forum. I understand it's impossible to judge something I haven't put forth yet, so I'm definitely not trying to debate its merits at this point; I just ask that you keep an open mind. I'm working hard to get it out since my oopsie showed my hand. Yikes!