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US Politics: A Feast for Crows


DMC

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39 minutes ago, mormont said:

A freshman representative misunderstands a relatively complex issue but in so doing makes a point about an important policy question.

Points of similarity to Trump's repeated, self-serving, ignorant, easily disprovable, deliberate and knowing lies on Twitter: nil. 

She should know what she doesn’t know and hold off until she knows.  That said Trump is the living embodiment of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

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2 hours ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

Her Pelosi stunt pissed off a lot of people.

The only people it pissed off were people that are already trying to demonize her - or the people that get their information from such people.  The "stunt" was a coordinated effort to get the 'Green New Deal' into the news cycle:

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Sunrise and Justice Democrats were planning a protest to push Pelosi on climate. AOC and her staff, who are in close touch with the activist left, suggested that protesters need something concrete to rally around, some specific demands; that’s why they wrote this draft resolution.

So protesters go to Pelosi’s office — where the cameras will be — as a show of force, to demand that Dems stop taking fossil fuel money and start planning for a real climate solution. AOC then comes to visit and support the protest, thus bringing more attention and more cameras.

Together, they help thrust climate change into the news cycle and get the term “Green New Deal” published in most of the nation’s newspapers, a fairly adroit bit of agenda-setting in a hostile media environment.

As for Pelosi? It would not surprise me at all to find out that she knew it was coming — was maybe even in on it. At the very least, she welcomed it and gave it further publicity:

Anyway, I don't care that Ocasio-Cortez got the tweet wrong - mischaracterizing budget estimates is a rite of passage for a politician - but it is symptomatic of what she should be concerned about:  over-exposure.  She's like catnip to both sides right now and it can get to be a little much really fast.

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1 minute ago, DMC said:

The only people it pissed off were people that are already trying to demonize her - or the people that get their information from such people.  The "stunt" was a coordinated effort to get the 'Green New Deal' into the news cycle:

Anyway, I don't care that Ocasio-Cortez got the tweet wrong - mischaracterizing budget estimates is a rite of passage for a politician - but it is symptomatic of what she should be concerned about:  over-exposure.  She's like catnip to both sides right now and it can get to be a little much really fast.

I'm not a Pelosi demonizer, and it pissed me right off. She waltzed into Pelosi's office with her fan club in tow to demand something that had already been done. It smacked of gamesmanship. 

Up until then, I hadn't really paid much attention to her. I was not impressed. 

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3 hours ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

I'm really trying to give the girl a chance and like her, but it's difficult. Her Pelosi stunt pissed off a lot of people. I've interacted with her on Twitter and she comes off as a bigger brat than my kids. 

How was anything that happened between her and Pelosi a stunt?  I know the initial media coverage said she 'protested Pelosi' but that wasn't really accurate at all.

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/11/14/18094452/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-nancy-pelosi-protest-climate-change-2020

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

How was anything that happened between her and Pelosi a stunt?  I know the initial media coverage said she 'protested Pelosi' but that wasn't really accurate at all.  

Not a stunt in terms of it being all staged and set up with Pelosi in on it. A stunt as in a stupid, immature thing to do, to no one's benefit. Imagine it's your first day on the job and you storm into the CEO's office with a set of demands. What do you think is going to happen to you? She should have asked Pelosi for a meeting to sit down and talk about it. That's what an adult would do if they want to be taken seriously. She's going to find herself alone and marginalized very quickly if she doesn't tone it down. She's about to get a hard lesson in learning to work with members of her own party without seeing them as The Enemy. 

California has been on fire. Does she really think that Pelosi is unsympathetic to climate action? She had already announced a committee to discuss it. 

I'm all for youthful enthusiasm. Lord knows we need it. But it has to be harnessed with experience, which she doesn't have, and competence and judgment, which she is so far showing an appalling lack of. 

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12 minutes ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

Not a stunt in terms of it being all staged and set up with Pelosi in on it. A stunt as in a stupid, immature thing to do, to no one's benefit. Imagine it's your first day on the job and you storm into the CEO's office with a set of demands. What do you think is going to happen to you? She should have asked Pelosi for a meeting to sit down and talk about it. That's what an adult would do if they want to be taken seriously. She's going to find herself alone and marginalized very quickly if she doesn't tone it down. She's about to get a hard lesson in learning to work with members of her own party without seeing them as The Enemy. 

California has been on fire. Does she really think that Pelosi is unsympathetic to climate action? She had already announced a committee to discuss it. 

I'm all for youthful enthusiasm. Lord knows we need it. But it has to be harnessed with experience, which she doesn't have, and competence and judgment, which she is so far showing an appalling lack of. 

If you’re a man and from good breeding and it’s your first day on a job daddy got you and you storm into the CEO’s office you’ll probably be promoted, given a raise, praised for your initiative, given faux authority and funding for the arena you’re outraged over ( to shut you up) and generally be fast tracked into a higher executive tract than where you were allocated.

if you were a woman, no matter what the qualifiers are, you’d be fired. 

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2 minutes ago, lokisnow said:

If you’re a man and from good breeding and it’s your first day on a job daddy got you and you storm into the CEO’s office you’ll probably be promoted, given a raise, praised for your initiative, given faux authority and funding for the arena you’re outraged over ( to shut you up) and generally be fast tracked into a higher executive tract than where you were allocated.

if you were a woman, no matter what the qualifiers are, you’d be fired. 

This is the most ridiculous take on the events I've seen yet. 

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14 minutes ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

Not a stunt in terms of it being all staged and set up with Pelosi in on it. A stunt as in a stupid, immature thing to do, to no one's benefit. Imagine it's your first day on the job and you storm into the CEO's office with a set of demands. What do you think is going to happen to you? She should have asked Pelosi for a meeting to sit down and talk about it. That's what an adult would do if they want to be taken seriously. She's going to find herself alone and marginalized very quickly if she doesn't tone it down. She's about to get a hard lesson in learning to work with members of her own party without seeing them as The Enemy. 

California has been on fire. Does she really think that Pelosi is unsympathetic to climate action? She had already announced a committee to discuss it. 

I'm all for youthful enthusiasm. Lord knows we need it. But it has to be harnessed with experience, which she doesn't have, and competence and judgment, which she is so far showing an appalling lack of. 

Uh?  Did you follow up in this at all?  She had talked with Pelosi before any of this happened.  Even if this was just to show the public, she went in front of cameras, announced her support for a cause that most of her constituents support, and offers her support to Pelosi.  I think you're perceiving some rift between her and Pelosi that, according to both of them, doesn't exist.  Keep in mind this happened over the backdrop of Pelosi trying to secure a coalition to confirm her as Speaker.

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9 minutes ago, lokisnow said:

If you’re a man and from good breeding and it’s your first day on a job daddy got you and you storm into the CEO’s office you’ll probably be promoted, given a raise, praised for your initiative, given faux authority and funding for the arena you’re outraged over ( to shut you up) and generally be fast tracked into a higher executive tract than where you were allocated.

if you were a woman, no matter what the qualifiers are, you’d be fired. 

Exactly, although I think a man would be fired as well. I could be wrong. As a woman, I can state pretty confidently that I'd be escorted out of the building by armed security.

The point is that you don't do that. You just don't. 

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4 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Uh?  Did you follow up in this at all?  She had talked with Pelosi before any of this happened.  Even if this was just to show the public, she went in front of cameras, announced her support for a cause that most of her constituents support, and offers her support to Pelosi.  I think you're perceiving some rift between her and Pelosi that, according to both of them, doesn't exist.  Keep in mind this happened over the backdrop of Pelosi trying to secure a coalition to confirm her as Speaker.

I don't think there's a rift at all. It really doesn't have anything to do with Pelosi personally. If she'd already met with Pelosi, then she should have been at orientation with the other freshmen, not grandstanding for the cameras. This isn't high school. 

Look, I want to like her and I want her to do well. I do. But she just can't seem to keep her mouth shut. She needs to spend time reading and learning, not sticking her foot in it like she just did with the accounting error. 

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26 minutes ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

Not a stunt in terms of it being all staged and set up with Pelosi in on it. A stunt as in a stupid, immature thing to do, to no one's benefit. Imagine it's your first day on the job and you storm into the CEO's office with a set of demands. What do you think is going to happen to you? She should have asked Pelosi for a meeting to sit down and talk about it. That's what an adult would do if they want to be taken seriously. She's going to find herself alone and marginalized very quickly if she doesn't tone it down. She's about to get a hard lesson in learning to work with members of her own party without seeing them as The Enemy. 

California has been on fire. Does she really think that Pelosi is unsympathetic to climate action? She had already announced a committee to discuss it. 

I'm all for youthful enthusiasm. Lord knows we need it. But it has to be harnessed with experience, which she doesn't have, and competence and judgment, which she is so far showing an appalling lack of. 

Does she understand the difference in her role as an activist as opposed to her role as a legislator in the National legislature?

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35 minutes ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

I'm not a Pelosi demonizer, and it pissed me right off. She waltzed into Pelosi's office with her fan club in tow to demand something that had already been done.

As the article I linked suggests, not only would I not be surprised if Pelosi was in on it, I suspect the entire thing was her idea.  Everything about it is strategically advantageous to Pelosi:  She gets to make a "concession" to the "protesters" that she was already going to make - and even have Ocasio-Cortez thank her.  In doing so, she demonstrates to the anti-Pelosi crowd which is made up almost entirely of moderates that the progressive left is insurgent and will be the dominant power block in the incoming caucus.  And, of course, she shows the Ryan/Moulton crowd that she has secured her left flank which means all she has to do to secure her speakership is pick off a handful of the anti-Pelosi members - which she indeed promptly did in the following week.  There's no downside for Pelosi - any fallout is going to be blamed on Ocasio-Cortez' youthful naivete, as you articulated.

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4 minutes ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

I don't think there's a rift at all. It really doesn't have anything to do with Pelosi personally. If she'd already met with Pelosi, then she should have been at orientation with the other freshmen, not grandstanding for the cameras. This isn't high school. 

Look, I want to like her and I want her to do well. I do. But she just can't seem to keep her mouth shut. She needs to spend time reading and learning, not sticking her foot in it like she just did with the accounting error. 

I just completely do not see the problem with what happened with her and Pelosi, and don't see it as a stunt or AOC being an upstart or needing to keep her mouth shut.  Was the budget tweet stupid?  Yeah.  But I seriously think you're mischaracterizing the Pelosi thing and being hard on AOC for literally doing her job.

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34 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Does she understand the difference in her role as an activist as opposed to her role as a legislator in the National legislature?

Well, I think that's part of it. She has roots in activism, not politics. I think another part is just plain immaturity. I hope she grows into the part. 

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46 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Does she understand the difference in her role as an activist as opposed to her role as a legislator in the National legislature?

No, you should probably explain to her what the difference is.  She probably has no idea, great point.  

She probably meant to run for the office of Chief Activist and checked the wrong box.  

Speaking of which, what the fuck is the 'National legislature' (capitalization yours)?  Maybe you should take a civics class or research what you're talking about before you open your mouth.

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32 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

I just completely do not see the problem with what happened with her and Pelosi, and don't see it as a stunt or AOC being an upstart or needing to keep her mouth shut.  Was the budget tweet stupid?  Yeah.  But I seriously think you're mischaracterizing the Pelosi thing and being hard on AOC for literally doing her job.

That's fine, you don't have to agree with me. I was simply giving my opinion as I see it. I've worked in government for 24 years, and she's going about it all wrong. 

 

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51 minutes ago, DMC said:

As the article I linked suggests, not only would I not be surprised if Pelosi was in on it, I suspect the entire thing was her idea.  Everything about it is strategically advantageous to Pelosi:  She gets to make a "concession" to the "protesters" that she was already going to make - and even have Ocasio-Cortez thank her.  In doing so, she demonstrates to the anti-Pelosi crowd which is made up almost entirely of moderates that the progressive left is insurgent and will be the dominant power block in the incoming caucus.  And, of course, she shows the Ryan/Moulton crowd that she has secured her left flank which means all she has to do to secure her speakership is pick off a handful of the anti-Pelosi members - which she indeed promptly did in the following week.  There's no downside for Pelosi - any fallout is going to be blamed on Ocasio-Cortez' youthful naivete, as you articulated.

If that's true, then that's just pure awesomeness on Pelosi's part. There's a reason why she's one of the most successful Speakers of all time. Even if it wasn't her idea and she knew nothing about it, she handled it very, very well. 

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This CNN article about the generational changes that we are seeing in 2018 midterms and what they mean for 2020 echos a discussion that we had here a couple weeks ago.  Democrats have talked about "demographics is destiny", and that is usually couched in the discussion of the rising non-white populations in America.  But there's another element to this, which is that Republicans terrible numbers with voters in the 18-29 demographic in the Bush years have not really improved as those voters get older. 

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The roughly three-fifths of voters 30-44 that Democrats won in 2018 almost exactly equaled their showing among voters in their twenties during their sweep in the 2006 mid-term election. [Republican Pollster says] "The problem now for Republicans is you are not just talking about we need to do better with younger voters, now it has spread so far up the age scale as these voters have gotten older and not become more conservative in the process," she said. "This a problem that emerged in the mid 2000s that was never really properly addressed, and it's now taken much more root."

Sadly, the strategy of ignoring young voters hasn't really bitten Republicans thus far.  In 2018, there was a lot of talk about the "energized youth vote" being angry at Trump, but even still exit polls showed that 18-29 year olds only accounted for a paltry percentage of the total.  But Republicans also did very poorly with 30-44 year olds, and that group votes at significantly higher rates.

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The most basic reason younger voters loom even larger in 2020 is that the millennial Generation and Generation X, joined for the first time by the post-millennials born after 2000, will comprise a larger share of the eligible voter pool than in 2016. (Those three generations represented about 55% of all eligible voters in 2016, and are expected to rise to about 63% in 2020

Of course, the 37% that is the older generations will make up a much larger percentage of actual voters.  BUT, it's further evidence that the Republican strategy of relying on enthusiasm from older, white voters has an obvious expiration date.  The conventional wisdom that voters get more conservative as they age isn't really backed up by the evidence we're seeing, and as those voters make up a larger share of the total electorate, that is a problem from Trump and any Republicans attempting to build on the wreckage of whatever party is left when he's gone. 

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1 minute ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

If that's true, then that's just pure awesomeness on Pelosi's part.

Aye, you don't lead a party caucus for 16 years without adeptly employing Machiavellian maneuvers.  And in this case every aspect happens to be true - the progressives are going to be the most powerful bloc in the caucus, it is the moderates that are holding up united Democratic action on climate change (to be clear, usually with good reason when considering the reelection incentive), and both Pelosi and Ocasio-Cortez would like more attention given to the 'Green New Deal.'

Did Pelosi 'use' Ocasio-Cortez?  Sure, but Ocasio-Cortez was similarly using Pelosi to propagate her agenda.  Nothing wrong with this.  It's why I cringe when I see Trump described as 'transactional' like that's some type of pejorative.  If you've ever taken a undergrad poly sci class, you've probably been exposed to (whether you remember or not) David Easton's famous definition of a political system as the "the authoritative allocation of values."  All politics are transactional.

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Eric Trump is catching a heavy L on the interwebs and it’s hilarious. Best not to critic other men’s behavior as a husband when your dead is, well, Donald Freaking Trump…

Speaking of which, the Conway dinner table must be a fascinating place. What I wouldn’t give to be a fly on the wall there after Trump has a meltdown day, which is increasingly becoming every day.  

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