New information in FaB and it's implications for the novels/novellas

[HexMachina]

4 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

I think that it tells us that Martin finds the color scheme menacing. Shaggy, I think gets a bad rep. He's acting on Rickon's temper tantrums, but he hasn't seriously hurt anybody, which he might well have. In contrast Summer, killed when he was still a puppy and has been chomping down on wildlings, Ironborne and Thenns since with great efficiency. Who knows though? I do think though that there is something mystical going on with Shaggy which might turn to be the case with the Cannibal. 

Shaggy attacked Maester Luwin and iirc there is at least one occasion where he isn’t only prevented from hurting someone because of Summer. He is unquestionably the least tamed/wild

[The Sleeper]

7 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

Shaggy attacked Maester Luwin and iirc there is at least one occasion where he isn’t only prevented from hurting someone because of Summer. He is unquestionably the least tamed/wild

Yes, but he didn't go for the throat or do permanent damage and he is quite capable of that. 

[Bael's Bastard]

17 hours ago, Maia said:

Well, both of these marriages provide precedents that are relevant for Jon's situation. As you say, Duncan's marriage wasn't or couldn't be unmade, but it cost him and his hypothetical children their succession rights. Those are legal consequences that demonstrate that Exceptionalism doesn't automatically cover  unconventional marital choices that Targaryens might engage in. Both cases also feature broken betrothals to a Baratheon, but betrothals can broken in Westeros, as they could mostly be iRL.

@Maia

My point has been to distinguish between religious consequences and political consequences.

The Doctrine of Targaryen Exceptionalism exempted Targaryens from the religious consequences of continuing to practice the traditional Valyrian/Targaryen marital practices that were otherwise forbidden for everyone else. Though we as of yet have no examples of polygamy after Maegor, we have no reason to believe that the doctrine excluded polygamy, which, like incest, was practiced by the pre-Doom Valyrians and Targaryens, and by the post-Doom Targaryen lords of Dragonstone.

The doctrine didn't exempt Targaryens from the political consequences of insulting or offending their lords, as Duncan, heir to the Iron Throne, did when he broke the vow to wed the daughter of Lord Lyonel Baratheon, or as Rhaegar, heir to the Iron Throne, did when he crowned and later abducted Lyanna, betrothed to Lord Robert Baratheon by her father Lord Rickard Stark, despite already being wed to Elia Martell, as arranged by his father and king Aerys II.

In the case of Rhaegar, the doctrine might have allowed Rhaegar to get away with legally wedding Lyanna and fathering a child on her, but wouldn't have shielded him from the political consequences he faced - whether at the hands of Aerys, the Martells, the Starks, or the Baratheons - by doing so, and wouldn't have shielded Aerys from the political consequences he might have faced - whether at the hands of the Martells, the Starks, or the Baratheons - by Rhaegar doing so.

Simply put, the doctrine made it a possibility that Rhaegar could have legitimately wed a second wife and legitimately fathered a child on her. That doesn't mean Aerys couldn't have responded by excluding him and/or that child, and even his other children, from the succession. All of which carry their own possible political consequences.

17 hours ago, Maia said:

Concerning Alys Rivers, we have an alleged secret marriage, without any witnesses, that won't be recognized.

In Jon's case, there are several hurdles - proof of marriage, question whether the doctrine applies, proof that there was a son and that Jon was that baby, etc. The problems being that written evidence can be easily faked in that world, that Howland Reed and Wylla the wetnurse don't make the most convincing witnesses and everybody else is dead and that FAegon is going to thoroughly poison "the hidden son of Rhaegar" pool.

Given all of the above, Jon isn't ging to have the clear-cut claim that many were  expecting.

Sure, there are far too many unknowns and possibilities to determine exactly what is going to happen with Jon.

Assuming there was a wedding between Rhaegar and Lyanna, we don't know how secret it was, whether or not there is a living officiant, or living witnesses, or documentation somewhere. We don't know if there are living witnesses to their consummation, or to Jon's birth to Lyanna after consummation.

It is entirely possible, even if Jon somehow learns about his parentage, that Westeros will never learn of his parentage, or that anything they learn will be after he is already in a de facto position of leadership, or has already died. There is absolutely no guarantee that it will play any role whatsoever in any leadership position Jon attains or is offered.

I know others have preferred to discuss how this might affect Jon's path to the throne, but my comments have been more interested in how this affects what Rhaegar was doing, and what Rhaegar thought about what he was doing. 282-283 AC and 298-300 AC are two completely different times and places, both worth discussing, but my interest in this conversation has been more about 282-283 AC.

17 hours ago, Maia said:

Oh, absolutely, it explains why Rhaegar thought that it would work and shows that he wasn't mad to do so. OTOH, Brandon's reaction maybe shows that it would have been harder to convince people than he hoped.

At the very least, it shows that he might not have had reason to worry about the stain of illegitimacy in regards to a second wife or child(ren) with her. He might have been able to get away with it religiously, but politically would have been another matter. What political consequences did he consider before going ahead with what he did, and why did he go ahead with what he did regardless? What so motivated him that he risked himself and his children being excluded from the succession, or worse, to accomplish it? Why did he need this child to be legitimate when it would seemingly not only have little or no chance of being in the succession, but would likely jeopardize his own position and the possibly the position of his elder children in the succession?

[Shmedricko]

1) Shortly after Queen Alyssa dies from childbirth complications in a tower, this piece of imagery caught my eye:

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First, however, his lordship had to contend with a more contentious arrival. Dawn was breaking and Queen Alyssa's body was not yet cold when Vermithor raised his head from where he had been coiled sleeping in the yard, and gave out with a roar that woke half of Storm's End. He had scented the approach of another dragon. Moments later Dreamfyre descended, silver crests flashing along her back as her pale blue wings beat against the red dawn sky. Rhaena Targaryen had come to make amends to her mother. (Birth, Death, and Betrayal Under King Jaehaerys I)

Blue wings beating against a red dawn sky... Compare that to the end of Ned's tower of joy dream:

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"And now it begins," said Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning. He unsheathed Dawn and held it with both hands. The blade was pale as milkglass, alive with light.

"No," Ned said with sadness in his voice. "Now it ends." As they came together in a rush of steel and shadow, he could hear Lyanna screaming. "Eddard!" she called. A storm of rose petals blew across a blood-streaked sky, as blue as the eyes of death. (Eddard X, AGOT)

Blue roses blowing across a blood-streaked sky... Moreover, Dreamfyre's wings are specified to be "pale blue," which is how the roses associated with Lyanna are described on multiple other occasions. Both passages also mention "Dawn," the rose petals are described as a "storm," and Dreamfyre descended at "Storm's End."

2) I noticed some similarities between the death of Prince Aemon Targaryen, heir to the Iron Throne, and the stabbing of Jon Snow:

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The iron bolt punched through the prince's throat and out the back of his neck. The Prince of Dragonstone fell to his knees and grasped the crossbow bolt, as if to pull it from his throat, but his strength was gone. Aemon Targaryen died struggling to speak, drowned on his own blood. He was thirty-seven years old. (The Long Reign)

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Then Bowen Marsh stood there before him, tears running down his cheeks. "For the Watch." He punched Jon in the belly. When he pulled his hand away, the dagger stayed where he had buried it.

Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger's hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold night air the wound was smoking. "Ghost," he whispered. Pain washed over him. Stick them with the pointy end. When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold … (Jon XIII, ADWD)

Jon is also injured in the throat/neck before this, although it's from being slashed rather than stabbed.

Side note: A second parallel to Aemon's death is that of Jacaerys Velaryon, another Prince of Dragonstone and heir to the Iron Throne who was killed by a shot through the neck from a Myrish crossbowman:

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One of the Myrish scouts wound his crossbow now, behind the rocks where he was hidden. Rising, he took aim on the Evenstar a hundred yards below, and loosed his bolt. Dusk and distance made his aim less certain, and the bolt missed Lord Cameron ... and struck Prince Aemon, standing at his side.

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It is said that Jacaerys Velaryon leapt free and clung to a piece of smoking wreckage for a few heartbeats, until some crossbowmen on the nearest Myrish ship began loosing quarrels at him. The prince was struck once, and then again. More and more Myrmen brought crossbows to bear. Finally one quarrel took him through the neck, and Jace was swallowed by the sea. (The Red Dragon and the Gold)

Although the passage about Jace is not new, also appearing in TPATQ, I see some echoes to Jon's stabbing as well, albeit more faint ones. It's the third quarrel that causes Jace to sink into the sea, just as it's the third dagger that causes Jon to fall into the snow. There are potential smoke and salt references in both cases: smoking wreckage and the salty sea for Jace, a smoking wound and salty tears for Jon. And one account of the death of Jace's dragon Vermax is that a grapnel tore a long gash "in the dragon's belly" (Jon was stabbed in the belly) and then he "went down smoking and screaming." There are a host of other quotes where the wounds of dragons are described as smoking, but that connection is already well known from ADWD and TPATQ.

[Shmedricko]

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That was not a path that Saera Targaryen cared to walk, however. The princess endured the silence, the cold baths, the scratchy roughspun robes, the meatless meals. [...]

The truth did not come out until a year later, when the former princess was seen in a Lysene pleasure garden, still clad as a novice.

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Saera was still in Lys, she knew from their reports, still at the pleasure garden. Now twenty years of age, she oft entertained her admirers still garbed as a novice of the Faith; there were evidently a good many Lyseni who took pleasure in ravishing innocent young women who had taken vows of chastity, even when the innocence was feigned. (The Long Reign)

A woman named Saera in a Lysene pleasure garden brings to mind Illyrio's second wife Serra, who he claimed to have found "in a Lysene pillow house." The fact that Saera still dressed as a member of the Faith could be a hint that Serra is still alive as the robed Septa Lemore -- in which case Young Griff would probably be her son with Illyrio, explaining the real reason she's involved in the Aegon plan, and her stretch marks.

Saera: "she oft entertained her admirers still garbed as a novice of the Faith" Lemore:

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Septa Lemore laughed. Like everyone else aboard the Shy Maid, she had her secrets. She was welcome to them. I do not want to know her, I only want to fuck her. She knew it too. As she hung her septa's crystal about her neck, to nestle in the cleft between her breasts, she teased him with a smile. (Tyrion IV, ADWD)

Saera: "there were evidently a good many Lyseni who took pleasure in ravishing innocent young women who had taken vows of chastity, even when the innocence was feigned" Lemore:

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The dwarf watched Lemore slip into the water. The sight always made him hard. There was something wonderfully wicked about the thought of peeling the septa out of those chaste white robes and spreading her legs. Innocence despoiled, he thought … though Lemore was not near as innocent as she appeared. She had stretch marks on her belly that could only have come from childbirth. (Tyrion IV, ADWD)

Saera also had a son who came from Essos for the Great Council with "bags of gold and a dwarf elephant" to press his claim to the Iron Throne, which is vaguely reminiscent of Young Griff with his Golden Company and war elephants.

Since I'm on the topic, I wanted to mention this potential clue from ADWD as well, because although it's been pointed out before in other threads, I think it's one of the better ones given how little there is to go on regarding Lemore:

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"Even the bravest of your forebears kept his Kingsguard close about him in times of peril." Lemore had changed out of her septa's robes into garb more befitting the wife or daughter of a prosperous merchant. Tyrion watched her closely. He had sniffed out the truth beneath the dyed blue hair of Griff and Young Griff easily enough, and Yandry and Ysilla seemed to be no more than they claimed to be, whilst Duck was somewhat less. Lemore, though … Who is she, really? Why is she here? Not for gold, I'd judge. What is this prince to her? Was she ever a true septa? (Tyrion VI, ADWD)

In the same paragraph where Tyrion wonders about Lemore's identity, motivation, and relationship to Young Griff, Lemore has changed into "garb more befitting the wife (or daughter) of a prosperous merchant," and Serra was the wife of Illyrio, a prosperous merchant.

[Maia]

So, I noticed something rather interesting, IMHO - in Jon III ADwD, he read this in Jade Compendium:

"Once Azor Ahai fought a monster. When he thrust the sword through the belly of the beast, its blood began to boil. Smoke and steam poured from its mouth, its eyes melted and dribbled down its cheeks, and its body burst into flame."

Which is oddly reminiscent of what happened to Aerea, isn't it? Was she cut by AA's sword? Or is this horrible fire magic infestation the truth behind Lightbringer?

 

[Shmedricko]

On 12/4/2018 at 3:04 PM, Maia said:

Is Cannibal's coloring being the same as Shaggy's just a tongue-in-cheek easter egg or a sign of things to come?

Cannibal's black colouring and green eyes could be an allusion to the factions of the Dance, even though he didn't really play a role in the conflict. Criston Cole, who switched from the blacks to the greens and helped start the war as the Kingmaker, had green eyes and black hair ("coal black," just like the Cannibal, and also a pun on his own name). The tinfoil theory, though, is that:

Cannibal sharing Shaggydog's colouring + Shaggydog being on Skagos + Skagos being associated with cannibals + Skagos meaning "stone" in the Old Tongue + Cannibal vanishing after the Dance = Cannibal is still alive on Skagos and rousing him will "wake dragons out stone"/"wake the [great] stone dragon"

(This isn't a new theory. The only new bit is Cannibal having green eyes, reinforcing the connection to Shaggydog, as I don't think that information was known before Fire & Blood.)

On 12/23/2018 at 2:12 PM, Maia said:

So, I noticed something rather interesting, IMHO - in Jon III ADwD, he read this in Jade Compendium:

"Once Azor Ahai fought a monster. When he thrust the sword through the belly of the beast, its blood began to boil. Smoke and steam poured from its mouth, its eyes melted and dribbled down its cheeks, and its body burst into flame."

Which is oddly reminiscent of what happened to Aerea, isn't it? Was she cut by AA's sword? Or is this horrible fire magic infestation the truth behind Lightbringer?

I think the stronger connection is that eyes melting and running down one's cheeks/face is associated multiple times with being roasted by dragonfire:

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The black dragon spread his wings and roared.

A lance of swirling dark flame took Kraznys full in the face. His eyes melted and ran down his cheeks, and the oil in his hair and beard burst so fiercely into fire that for an instant the slaver wore a burning crown twice as tall as his head. (Daenerys III, ASOS 27)

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"I looked at that book Maester Aemon left me. The Jade Compendium. The pages that told of Azor Ahai. Lightbringer was his sword. Tempered with his wife's blood if Votar can be believed. Thereafter Lightbringer was never cold to the touch, but warm as Nissa Nissa had been warm. In battle the blade burned fiery hot. Once Azor Ahai fought a monster. When he thrust the sword through the belly of the beast, its blood began to boil. Smoke and steam poured from its mouth, its eyes melted and dribbled down its cheeks, and its body burst into flame."

Clydas blinked. "A sword that makes its own heat …" (Jon III, ADWD 10)

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He loved to talk of dragons. She knew how Harrenhal had fallen. She knew about the Field of Fire and the Dance of the Dragons. One of her forebears, the third Aegon, had seen his own mother devoured by his uncle's dragon. And there were songs beyond count of villages and kingdoms that lived in dread of dragons till some brave dragonslayer rescued them. At Astapor the slaver's eyes had melted. (Daenerys II, ADWD 11) [Note that this chapter immediately follows the one with the Lightbringer description]

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"Ask the Good Masters of Astapor about my dragons if you doubt them." I saw a slaver's eyes melt and go running down his cheeks. (Daenerys III, ADWD 16)

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When a crazed one-handed prophet called the Shepherd began to rant against dragons, not just the ones who were coming to attack them, but all dragons everywhere, the crowd, half-crazed themselves, listened. “When the dragons come,” he shrieked, “your flesh will burn and blister and turn to ash. Your wives will dance in gowns of fire, shrieking as they burn, lewd and naked underneath the flames. And you shall see your little children weeping, weeping till their eyes do melt and slide like jelly down their faces, till their pink flesh falls black and crackling from their bones. The Stranger comes, he comes, he comes, to scourge us for our sins. Prayers cannot stay his wroth, no more than tears can quench the flame of dragons. Only blood can do that. Your blood, my blood, their blood.” (TPATQ, nearly identical quote in F&B)

This is supporting evidence that one or more of Dany's dragons will fulfill the role of Lightbringer in the story. Specifically, I think the last quote supports the theory that the Lightbringer prophecy will be fulfilled when Dany's dragon(s) burn down King's Landing and everyone in it -- as a last resort to prevent the Others from adding them all to their army of wights -- especially when combined with this new quote a few pages earlier in F&B:

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The Shepherd drank deep of the anger, proclaiming that the day of doom was night at hand, just as he had foretold, and calling down the wroth of the gods upon "this unnatural queen who sits bleeding on the Iron Throne, her whore's lips glistening red with the blood of her sweet sister." When a septa in the crowd cried out, pleading for him to save the city, the Shepherd said, "Only the Mother's mercy can save you, but you drove your Mother from this city with your pride and lust and avarice. Now it is the Stranger who comes. On a dark horse with burning eyes he comes, a scourge of fire in his hand to cleanse this pit of sin of demons and all who bow before them. Listen! Can you hear the sound of burning hooves? He comes! He comes!!" (Rhaenyra Overthrown)

A "dark horse with burning eyes" could represent a dragon, specifically the black-scaled Drogon. The only other time "burning eyes" appear is in a description of Viserion and Rhaegal: "The dragons craned their necks around, gazing at them with burning eyes." (Daenerys VIII, ADWD)

A "scourge of fire in his hand" connects with this line in TPATQ/a little earlier in F&B, when Hugh and Ulf set fire to Tumbleton with their dragons Vermithor and Silverwing: "The Two Betrayers scourged the town with whips of flame from one end to the other." (Rhaenyra Triumphant)

And "Can you hear the sound of burning hooves? He comes! He comes!!" reminds me of the Stallion Who Mounts the World: "The prince is riding!" "He is riding!" "The thunder of his hooves!" (Daenerys V, AGOT) And the popular theory is that Dany riding Drogon will fulfill that prophecy.

(It should be noted that Dany doesn't necessarily need to be responsible for the burning of King's Landing in this theory, even if she's riding Drogon, although she may be seen as responsible. One version of the theory is that Bran will skinchange into Drogon to burn King's Landing, potentially making him Azor Ahai reborn, with Drogon as his burning sword Lightbringer.)

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

If we assume that the eggs Elissa Farman stole are Dany's, how did Illyrio get hold of them? Did he buy them from the Sealord of Braavos? Although, they probably changed hands a couple of times before that.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

If we assume that the eggs Elissa Farman stole are Dany's, how did Illyrio get hold of them? Did he buy them from the Sealord of Braavos? Although, they probably changed hands a couple of times before that.

All that may be the case - or the unnamed Sealord Elissa Farman and Septon Barth deal with was named ... Mopatis. Bravos are very common there.

But it is of course possible that Illyrio just figured out who had the eggs now and ended up buying them from that person.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

All that may be the case - or the unnamed Sealord Elissa Farman and Septon Barth deal with was named ... Mopatis.

Isn't Illyrio of humble origins?

[Jô Maltese]

On 12/16/2018 at 12:50 PM, Shmedricko said:

A woman named Saera in a Lysene pleasure garden brings to mind Illyrio's second wife Serra, who he claimed to have found "in a Lysene pillow house." The fact that Saera still dressed as a member of the Faith could be a hint that Serra is still alive as the robed Septa Lemore -- in which case Young Griff would probably be her son with Illyrio, explaining the real reason she's involved in the Aegon plan, and her stretch marks.

(...)

Yep. But the real question is, is Serra from Saera's line? 

EDIT: Squire? Have you been demoted or lost your previous posts? Or are you a brand new @Shmedricko?

 

[Lord Varys]

17 minutes ago, Jô Maltese said:

Yep. But the real question is, is Serra from Saera's line?

Aegon is far less of a psychopathic nymphomaniac to make that very likely...

[Jô Maltese]

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Aegon is far less of a psychopathic nymphomaniac to make that very likely...

Keep reading... 

[Lord Varys]

26 minutes ago, Jô Maltese said:

Keep reading... 

If he was Saera's descendant he should have long ago fucked both Jon Connington and Rolly and Lemore and Yandry and Ysilla only to run away with Tyrion and Haldon.

But at this point we don't really have any evidence/confirmation that the woman Serra even existed.

[lysmonger]

Could Faegon perhaps have multiple lines of different targaryens in him?

[Lord Varys]

30 minutes ago, lysmonger said:

Could Faegon perhaps have multiple lines of different targaryens in him?

Sure. As many as there are lines still in existence ;-).

But is there any reason to assume that he has at this point. Why should Illyrio or Varys actually care to find a Targaryen descendant to create a fake Targaryen? All they need is somebody with Valyrian features, not somebody who is the real deal.

And if Illyrio himself were a Blackfyre descendant then all Serra may have been is a Lysene whore with no Targaryen blood at all - although as a Lysene with Valyrian features she may have been descended from many a dragonlord family - through bastard lines and the likes, but still...

But again - we still have only Illyrio's word the Serra woman actually existed. Where is the proof that this is the case?

As I think I've said quite often - if Illyrio wanted to create a fake Aegon he would have slept with a score of Valyrian-looking whores around the time the plan was made - he had to increase his chances to father a child that could pass for Rhaegar's son. A girl wouldn't have been able to do that, nor a boy with common (blond) hair.

[lysmonger]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure. As many as there are lines still in existence ;-).

But is there any reason to assume that he has at this point. Why should Illyrio or Varys actually care to find a Targaryen descendant to create a fake Targaryen? All they need is somebody with Valyrian features, not somebody who is the real deal.

And if Illyrio himself were a Blackfyre descendant then all Serra may have been is a Lysene whore with no Targaryen blood at all - although as a Lysene with Valyrian features she may have been descended from many a dragonlord family - through bastard lines and the likes, but still...

But again - we still have only Illyrio's word the Serra woman actually existed. Where is the proof that this is the case?

As I think I've said quite often - if Illyrio wanted to create a fake Aegon he would have slept with a score of Valyrian-looking whores around the time the plan was made - he had to increase his chances to father a child that could pass for Rhaegar's son. A girl wouldn't have been able to do that, nor a boy with common (blond) hair.

There has to be more skin in the game, some blood in it. 
Illyrio seemed quite amused selling Daenerys to the Dothraki. Illyrio didnt hide how much he mocked Viserys. There seemed to be a grudge against House Targaryen

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, lysmonger said:

There has to be more skin in the game, some blood in it. 
Illyrio seemed quite amused selling Daenerys to the Dothraki. Illyrio didnt hide how much he mocked Viserys. There seemed to be a grudge against House Targaryen

Sure, but where the hell is the proof that Serra is even real and where is our evidence that she and not Illyrio himself has Targaryen/Blackfyre connections?

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

Someone just posted a theory on reddit, that the maesters killed the dragons with tapeworms, based on Aeria's story. Could be something to it.

[The Coconut God]

3 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Someone just posted a theory on reddit, that the maesters killed the dragons with tapeworms, based on Aeria's story. Could be something to it.

That would be me.  Here's the link if anyone is interested in reading the whole thing.