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Maia

New information in FaB and it's implications for the novels/novellas

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There definitely seem ot be things that neither we nor Dany know about dragons. Her ancestors never seemed to have as much trouble managing their dragons as Dany does. She is basically making it up as she goes along. 

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4 hours ago, Ran said:

Jon isn't underestimating anything, as he's gotten exact estimates of how long their supplies will stretch and is calculating with that. He's certainly not leaving himself a lot of margin for error, but then again, he doesn't have a lot of time to play with.

Does he now? He clearly doesn't realize how little the Watch has actually stored in the storeroom chapter. Marsh has to tell them that they don't have as much as they would like. And those stores are calculated for about a thousand Watchmen, not thousands of wildlings refugees in addition to Stannis' men being fed while they were at the Wall.

A loan is not food, and the contract for a loan is not money.

Jon makes solitary decisions in his mind without properly communicating them. Communicating them could have helped. But his great ideas do not - and might never - result in him actually getting food. Especially if things deteriorate further down south. 

4 hours ago, Maia said:

Also, is it even feasible that NW numered 10K at the time of the Conquest? Could the Gift support that many, would the rest of the Seven Kingdoms have provided that much more in gifts on a regular basis? And at what time it actually start to diminish? After all, Nightfort stopped being the residence of the LC some 300 years prior. A lot of people joined during the reign of Jaeherys I and the Targaryens were quite invested in supporting it then.

Considering how empty CB is during the main series, it seems clear that - during times when there were still a lot of castles actually maintained and full of men - the Watch definitely would have numbered in the thousands, possibly even the tens of thousands.

The fact that Jaehaerys sent thousands of men to the Watch, supporting it, while Lord Alaric complains about him doing that because his brother got himself killed also underlines that the Starks can and did have other priorities than the Watch.

4 hours ago, Maia said:

BTW, Cregan Stark was all in favor of letting condemned criminals join - so it wasn't just a southern thing. Nor does it look like the New Gift was failing during Cregan's tenure - as he certainly was in position to request a reversal if it had been the case and was otherwise very competent.

I honestly have difficulty seeing the New Gift becoming a problem during the reign of Jaehaerys. They sent thousands of men up there, and those men wouldn't have all died in a decade or so. During the reign of Viserys I there could have been a decline, and the likes of Aegon III, Daeron I, Baelor I, Aegon IV, and Daeron II would have had other priorities than the Watch.

But Alysanne would not just pay for a new castle and then forget the Watch thereafter. Especially since it is confirmed that she and Jaehaerys didn't visit the North many times.

4 hours ago, Maia said:

It also seems that the Watch used to be much more mercyful towards the wildlings, sparing would-be raiders on their first attempt. When did this change, I wonder?

Did it ever? We don't know what the Watch does to raiders they catch - we only know what the wildlings do to the crows.

They may have gotten less forgiving, though, once the Watch declined more and more and ranging became ever more dangerous and the wildlings bolder and crueler.

4 hours ago, Maia said:

Oh, and it is really funny how despite Viserys I' bedtime story to his grandchildren, Jaeherys I hasn't even been at the Wall - it was all Alysanne and all she did was making a brief excursion into the Haunted Forest on the other side under heavy ranger escort when Silverwing refused to fly over and later seeing some captured wildlings. OTOH, Lord Alaric's brother actually died fighting giants, likely providing the inspiration for the martial/adventure  aspects of the story.

Perhaps Jaehaerys was later at the Wall, too. We don't know. We only got their first progress in the North.

4 hours ago, Maia said:

Personally, I think that clandestine marriage to Sara Snow is a wild fancy of Mushroom's, because in such a case the "Pact of Ice and Fire" obligating Jace to marry his future daughter to Rickon Stark would have been superflous.

Yeah, that is one of the least believable stories in the book, especially since it is even confirmed that Sara Snow even existed.

4 hours ago, Maia said:

But I am now pretty convinced that Daeron I was betrothed to a daughter of Rickon Stark, who, BTW, died fighting for the Young Dragon in Dorne.

That could be. Still finding it more plausible that he may have been betrothed to one of his cousins. But George will have to address this Daeron-Daena-Baelor thing in FaB II.

I doubt Aegon III forgot how Cregan Stark acted during his minority. And this Pact of Ice and Fire was made by Aegon III's older brother, just as Torrhen Manderly was not Aegon's choice for a Hand. 

4 hours ago, Maia said:

Also interesting that Joffrey Velaryon was betrothed to a Manderly - which explains why he couldn't become betrothed to Rhaena in Luke's place and why Corlys didn't want him as his heir. He did loved Rhaenyra's children, but he still wanted his own blood to be involved in the future of Driftmark.

This is a tricky one. George himself talks about that it is not clear where legitimized bastards would come in the line of succession - before or after those children that were trueborn from birth. Addam and Alyn were legitimized as Laenor Velaryon's sons, and since they were older than Laenor's son Joffrey Velaryon they came before him in the line of succession to Driftmark.

At least that's one way to see it - and that could have very interesting repercussions in relation to Robb legitimizing 'Jon Stark' as a son of Eddard Stark in his last will. If that did happen, then Brandon, Rickon, Sansa, and Arya Stark may be tricked out of Winterfell and the North after all, considering that Jon Stark is now the eldest trueborn son of Lord Eddard.

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4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

He clearly doesn't realize how little the Watch has actually stored in the storeroom chapter.

Err, he went down there to participate in the counting up of stores, gets the Lord Steward's information about its status, and follows his advice to already start reducing the rations. He makes a number of his decisions after this point, armed with that knowledge. He negotiates with that knowledge.

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

A loan is not food, and the contract for a loan is not money.

Do you imagine that the Iron Bank literally ships money back and forth across the narrow sea whenever someone wants to borrow from them? If you have a bank, you have some system of credit. If Tycho can enter the Iron Bank into a loan, he can then provide instruments such as letters of credit directing representatives, agents, branches, and even allied banks and merchantmen to provide sums that will be repaid in kind by the Iron Bank.

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Jon makes solitary decisions in his mind without properly communicating them. Communicating them could have helped. But his great ideas do not - and might never - result in him actually getting food. Especially if things deteriorate further down south. 

That's absolutely true, but he has immediate decisions to make, such as whether he should leave thousands to be turned into wights or not. The Others are not waiting for him to receive a massive shipment of food, for some reason.

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That's what Bowen Marsh has to say about the winter provisions of the Watch:

Quote

“It was a long summer. The harvests were bountiful, the lords generous. We had enough laid by to see us through three years of winter. Four, with a bit of scrimping. Now, though, if we must go on feeding all these king’s men and queen’s men and wildlings … Mole’s Town alone has a thousand useless mouths, and still they come. Three more turned up yesterday at the gates, a dozen the day before. It cannot go on. Settling them on the Gift, that’s well and good, but it is too late to plant crops. We’ll be down to turnips and pease porridge before the year is out. After that we’ll be drinking the blood of our own horses.

If they continue feeding Stannis and the wildlings at this point the food is not going to last for the remainder of the year.

The main route to bring food to the Wall in winters past was the Kingsroad and it is quite clear that will suffer from scurvy:

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The Lord Steward paid him no mind. “There will be sickness too,” he went on, “bleeding gums and loose teeth. Maester Aemon used to say that lime juice and fresh meat would remedy that, but our limes were gone a year ago and we do not have enough fodder to keep herds afoot for fresh meat. We should butcher all but a few breeding pairs. It’s past time. In winters past, food could be brought up the kingsroad from the south, but with the war … it is still autumn, I know, but I would advise we go on winter rations nonetheless, if it please my lord.”

With the Kingsroad leading through the North one can expect that any food transported this way is never going to reach the Wall while the North itself is starving.

Jon doesn't give any indication that he really understands what winter is going to be like at the Wall:

Quote

The men will love that. “If we must. We’ll cut each man’s portion by a quarter.” If my brothers are complaining of me now, what will they say when they’re eating snow and acorn paste? “That will help, my lord.” The Lord Steward’s tone made it plain that he did not think that it would help enough.

The 'winter rations' Jon announces seem to be too generous rations - and Jon apparently cares more about how about this makes him look than what having no food in winter would mean. Not all men at the Watch are old guys, but a lot of them are. They lived through more than a couple of winters. They certainly would understand why this is necessary.

Even if we agree that preventing the Others from acquiring more wights is the correct course (If the Others can't get through the Wall they can have as many wights as they want, right? And if they will breach/destroy the Wall they might already have more than enough wights to overwhelm the Watch so saving the wildlings is just prolonging the misery, fueling conflict at the Wall, and weakening the men at the Wall...)

I'm sure any transactions done with the help of the Iron Bank is not going to need them to actually transport the money, but at this point the Iron Bank doesn't yet know that the NW has taken a loan - and if Tycho Nestoris never returns to Braavos they will never learn this. But then, we have no indication to believe that the Iron Bank has many bureaus all across Westeros, no? They may be some such in the cities, but that's it.

Moreover, considering the devastation in the North, the Riverlands, parts of the Crownlands and the West, and now even the Reach the need for imported food (especially from the Vale) in Westeros will rise very high very soon.

Stannis got a gigantic loan from the Iron Bank. Jon didn't. He got a loan he thinks he can meet with the valuables of the wildlings. How likely is it that whoever ends up selling grain at enormous prices is going to prioritize the Watch?

Even if Sansa would end up calling the shots in the Vale later down the road she would likely prioritize the North, not the Wall.

A better way to deal with the wildlings may have been to allow them south of the Wall - and then put them on ships and get rid of them. Because the Watch cannot really feed them.

In the end, only plot reasons (and Jon neither has read the books nor is he going to read them) are going to make it so that Jon's decision there may not cause them all cannibalize themselves before they all starve to death. Because if the Others were to decide to wait a couple of years more, until winter has really set in, the guys at the Watch would be most likely all dead.

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4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

A loan is not food, and the contract for a loan is not money.

Is this serious?  A "contract for a loan" is literally the definition of a credit card.  It's almost impossible to conceive of a global economy without credit and debt.  Martin walks us through how Jon did everything possible to feed as many mouths as he can.  But, nope, not good enough.

8 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

What’s that theory called that says every online debate always ends up discussing nazis in the end? The Jon-is-a-poo-poo-headers are the forum version of that.   

It's Godwin's law.  And yeah, Jon sucking for one reason or another is definitely this forum's version of it.

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22 minutes ago, DMC said:

Is this serious?  A "contract for a loan" is literally the definition of a credit card.  It's almost impossible to conceive of a global economy without credit and debt.  Martin walks us through how Jon did everything possible to feed as many mouths as he can.  But, nope, not good enough.

This is a medieval world. If some banker comes to my door, offers me a loan, I sign a contract, and the guy then rides off into the snow and cannot actually sent a copy of the contract to his bank then I do not, in fact, have a loan yet.

 

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1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

This is a medieval world.

So you think the medieval global economy wasn't based on credit and debt?

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9 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

How did this thread turn into another Jon bashing?

Anyway, I found it interesting that Cregan, a far more influential and respected leader than Robb, despite spending a long time gathering his men, raised 10k men for a southron war, barely a third of the 30k strength of the North raised by Torhenn BEFORE the population boom under Jahaerys.

By contrast, Robb, an unproven boy, raised 20k men, in a hurry, without having to even wait for the harvest to complete. To me this implies that in Robb’s time the North can raise 20k men much more easily than it could in Cregan’s time. Suggesting a higher Northern strength today than back then.

I mean the the OP asks how what we've seen in F&B in regards to how the north  preparing for the winter reflects on Jon's decisions as Lord commander. Its not really surprising some are saying badly.  I mean this thread started on lord commander Jon and whether or not he did the right things during his tenure. I'm  of the opinion he made some mistakes(guess I'm a "hater") and that he made some risks that in the end were worth taking, and other risks he probably shouldn't have.   

Edited by Varysblackfyre321

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11 minutes ago, DMC said:

So you think the medieval global economy wasn't based on credit and debt?

I think this is not a world where you can sent contracts around using modern postal service, faxes, or email.

I've also laid out above that there are no indications that Iron Bank has many bureaus in Westeros, making this kind of thing more problematic than it would be in a more modern society.

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2 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I think this is not a world where you can sent contracts around using modern postal service, faxes, or email.

I've also laid out above that there are no indications that Iron Bank has many bureaus in Westeros, making this kind of thing more problematic than it would be in a more modern society.

Is your position that Jon’s interactions with the Iron Bank were a dead end then? A Red Herring that will not play a significant role in future?

I would find that highly unlikely. Clearly that deal is going to be crucial down the line.

Heck, for all we know the situation becomes so dire that all of Westeros joins the New Watch - albeit without the ridiculous oaths as they exist today - to fight the Others and save humanity. Then Tycho’s loan will extend far beyond the Wall.

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11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I think this is not a world where you can sent contracts around using modern postal service, faxes, or email.

Well, that's for you then.  I'm fairly confident this is a world in which if the LC of the Night's Watch sends proof he's got a loan from the Iron Bank, lords will send him food in exchange.  That's the world Martin has explicitly established.  If it wasn't, the crown would have crumbled into ruin years ago.

14 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I've also laid out above that there are no indications that Iron Bank has many bureaus in Westeros

The Iron Bank doesn't need any "bureaus" in Westeros.  All they need is credibility.  Which they obviously have.

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23 hours ago, DMC said:

Well, that's for you then.  I'm fairly confident this is a world in which if the LC of the Night's Watch sends proof he's got a loan from the Iron Bank, lords will send him food in exchange.  That's the world Martin has explicitly established.  If it wasn't, the crown would have crumbled into ruin years ago.

He has no such proof at this point. If the Iron Bank doesn't known he's got a loan, he doesn't have a loan.

And he'll have to deal with merchants, anyway, not lords. Lords rarely deal in anything.

Overall, this is not a world where people put a lot of trust in paper. Gold and other monies are moved around physically. Viserys I's treasury was literally empty when Rhaenyra took the city, and the gold therein was physically shipped to Braavos, Oldtown, and Casterly Rock.

Quote

The Iron Bank doesn't need any "bureaus" in Westeros.  All they need is credibility.  Which they obviously have.

The merchants would want their money. If they have no way to contact the Iron Bank to get it - or if they have to go to Braavos personally to collect the money Jon Snow owes them - they are not likely to do business with them.

Not to mention we do know the Iron Bank has been calling in loans from all over Westeros since the quarrel with Cersei - something that only makes sense if the Iron Bank does business in the greater cities and towns on a considerable scale. That doesn't work if their are no representatives there.

23 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Is your position that Jon’s interactions with the Iron Bank were a dead end then? A Red Herring that will not play a significant role in future?

We do not discuss here what we'll think will happen. We discuss whether what we learned about winter in FaB makes Jon's decisions in ADwD appear to be wise or imply that he actually knows what winter means at the Wall and did his best to prepare his men for that. And the answer to that simply is 'no'.

Even if we ignore that the entire thing got him killed - chances are not that likely that everything is suddenly going to turn out for the better in a book that's supposed to go to very dark places - and that at a place where the 'winter' from the title is going to be felt the worst.

The men at the Watch will not be able to eat parchment nor gold.

Edited by Lord Varys

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1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

He has no such proof at this point. If the Iron Bank doesn't known he's got a loan, he doesn't have a loan.

This would assume Tycho Nestoris has no legitimacy to authorize and guarantee such a loan, when in actuality his purpose for being there is to negotiate with Stannis at such a level.

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And he'll have to deal with merchants, anyway, not lords. Lords rarely deal in anything.

 Aye.  Merchants will be more eager to deal with Iron Bank currency because they're more likely to collect soon.

8 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Overall, this is not a world where people put a lot of trust in paper. Gold and other monies are moved around physically. Viserys I's treasury was literally empty when Rhaenyra took the city, and the gold therein was physically shipped to Braavos, Oldtown, and Casterly Rock.

Again, this just demonstrates a woeful misunderstanding of how banks work.  This statement seems to assume the Iron Bank actually exchanges "gold and other monies" whenever they render loans.  That's ludicrous.  As for Tyland Lannister moving the crown's physical wealth, well yeah.  That's what you do when that physical wealth could be physically taken by an adversary.  Doesn't really have any relevance to your basic misunderstanding on how currency works.

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Speaking of novellas, do we know how Fire and Blood Pt. 2 will intercede with the Dunk and Egg stories? Will we likely not see pt. 2 until after D&E are done, or will that section be more sparse? 

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44 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

Speaking of novellas, do we know how Fire and Blood Pt. 2 will intercede with the Dunk and Egg stories? Will we likely not see pt. 2 until after D&E are done, or will that section be more sparse? 

I don't think we know yet. GRRM said in a recent interview that he wants Winds of Winter next and will decide what comes after later; it was a toss between Dream of Spring, Fire and Blood Vol 2 or a new Dunk and Egg story. But depending on how far the Dunk and Egg series is planned to go (assuming Martin has that sketched out) F&B Volume 2 could have major spoilers for it. Though if Dunk and Egg ends at Aegon V's accession and Fire & Blood focuses mainly on the reigns of the Kings it could work (some kind of throwaway line, like "of the adventures of Aegon and his Lord Commander we know well and won't recount here" would let D&E remain spoiler free even if Vol 2 comes out instead).

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22 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

How did this thread turn into another Jon bashing?

You are right - enough about Jon in that context. I have said what I intended to say about this - the plight of the NW during Cregan's Winter just illustrated what the more experienced members of NW are afraid off - and that they have reasons to be so, distrust of wildlings here or there.

It also now occurs to me that men under 30 as of end of ADwD wouldn't really remember a hard Winter. IIRC, the last "cruel", 3-year-long Winter was that of Tyrion's birth. Then there were "8 or 9" relatively short and unremarkable Winters - even the one that was interrupted by the False Spring, while somewhat lengthier, wasn't mentioned as being hard, followed by a an almost 10-year-long Summer. So, there is probably an age divide between people who know how bad it is going to get and those who don't. The wildlings likely were exceptionally numerous until ASoS too, given that more people would have survived even that far north during such mild quarter of a century.

Let's consider something different instead - it now looks very likely that Rhaegar intended to plead this newly introduced in FaB doctrine of "Targaryen exceptionalism" as a legal basis for his marriage to Lyanna. In this sense, there is an argument for Jon being legitimate - though one that can be disputed since it was historically never applied to polygamy, only to sibling incest. OTOH, it also looks that the "hidden prince" claim has been well and truly poisoned during the reign of Aegon III - and is about to get some more beating with FAegon.

Dany faces all the historical opposition to female succession, of course, so her claim isn't iron-clad either - but at least nobody doubts her identity and her claim to "exceptionalism" is well founded, what with hatching dragons after so many failed and being an actual female conqueror. Being Aerys's daughter and Viserys's sister is a liability, though. As is growing up in foreign parts and being surrounded by foreigners.

 

22 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Anyway, I found it interesting that Cregan, a far more influential and respected leader than Robb, despite spending a long time gathering his men, raised 10k men for a southron war, barely a third of the 30k strength of the North raised by Torhenn BEFORE the population boom under Jahaerys.

It is specifically mentioned that Cregan, being a conscientious Lord, wouldn't move until he prepared the North for Winter the best he knew how. And he took only men who didn't intend to return. Add to that the difficulty of moving and provisioning a large army in winter and you have your answer. Torhenn raised his army in high Summer and in a situation of existential threat to the North. Apples and oranges.

22 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

By contrast, Robb, an unproven boy, raised 20k men, in a hurry, without having to even wait for the harvest to complete. To me this implies that in Robb’s time the North can raise 20k men much more easily than it could in Cregan’s time. Suggesting a higher Northern strength today than back then.

No, just a different season. Robb could have doubtlessly raised many more men if he didn't need to move quickly - in fact, as is, we almost have to assume that Umbers, Karstarks and other northernmost vassals teleported to Winterfell with their forces. Also, he had a very lukewarm support from Dustins and Ryswells, who likely pitched all-in for Torhenn and supplied 1/5 of Cregan's entire force.

This makes me wonder, though, what would have happened if Robb hadn't been betrayed - there was so much for him to do in the North that I don't really see how he could have returned before Lannisters retook the Riverlands, if he cared about his people at all.

Anyway, moving on:

Harrenhal. Some _very_ interesting new tidbits about it. The last Residence of Princess/Queen Rhaena and all this stuff with Alys Rivers witchy powers and Aemond's son... I am really curious how it will all play out. Who was Alys? Was she truly Lucamore's bastard... or? I would say that it is more a foreshadowing for Duncan the Small and his Jenny - as well as their children, if they had any, than anything to do with Jon Snow. Could there be dragon eggs hidden somewhere in the castle? Though Rhaena likely knew better than to let something like that slide again, Vhagar could have laid a clutch too. Speaking of which - did Dany get Elissa's stolen eggs, somehow?

It is also now confirmed that Nettles and Sheepstealer _did_ live in the Mountains of Moon for a time, but I don't really see how a dragon could have hidden there for decades without being seen. The mountains are pretty slim pickings in terms of food, which is why the wildlings have to raid the Vale for their very survival. So, either Sheepstealer died fairly soon or they moved on. Doesn't look like Daemon survived his fall, if she was still there a couple of years into the Regency.

We now also finally know corraborating evidence for Daemon and Aemond's fight and and some idea of how the Black Sister was found again.

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10 minutes ago, Maia said:

It also now occurs to me that men under 30 as of end of ADwD wouldn't really remember a hard Winter. IIRC, the last "cruel", 3-year-long Winter was that of Tyrion's birth. Then there were "8 or 9" relatively short and unremarkable Winters - even the one that was interrupted by the False Spring, while somewhat lengthier, wasn't mentioned as being hard, followed by a an almost 10-year-long Summer. So, there is probably an age divide between people who know how bad it is going to get and those who don't. The wildlings likely were exceptionally numerous until ASoS too, given that more people would have survived even that far north during such mild quarter of a century.

Here one could also mention that the seasons can and are, on occasion, very short indeed. The last winter before the two-year-winter of 59-60 AC started in 56 AC, and in 57 AC spring began, in time for the birth of the Spring Prince. That would mean spring, summer and autumn have to be cramped into the (parts of) the years 57-59 AC.

A similar thing can be observed for the years of the Dornish War. It started in the second year of autumn (4 AC), and would have gone on through autumn and winter but seems to have reached summer again by the year 8 AC, which is described as 'a very dry year'.

But I guess the whole seasons thing and trying to make a succession of them could warrant its own thread.

10 minutes ago, Maia said:

Let's consider something different instead - it now looks very likely that Rhaegar intended to plead this newly introduced in FaB doctrine of "Targaryen exceptionalism" as a legal basis for his marriage to Lyanna. In this sense, there is an argument for Jon being legitimate - though one that can be disputed since it was historically never applied to polygamy, only to sibling incest. OTOH, it also looks that the "hidden prince" claim has been well and truly poisoned during the reign of Aegon III - and is about to get some more beating with FAegon.

Since the Doctrine of Exceptionalism comes after Maegor it doesn't seem to be connected nor entail the right of Targaryens to take more than one wife. We have oftentimes heard people talk about it before, though, we were just lacking the name. Targaryens were always thought to be different because of their looks, their Valyrian origins, their dragons.

The entire *Jon Snow* story seems to be very much premeditated in the future story of Aemond's son by Alys Rivers. Chances are pretty good, I'd think, that he becomes a dragonrider if he doesn't already have a dragon (from an egg laid by Vhagar in the wildness of the Riverlands), causing another big dragon battle during the reign of Aegon III (possibly in the late 140s or around 150 AC). He could also end up wielding Dark Sister, recovered by Alys' followers from the Gods Eye.

But considering that Alys' son never sat the Iron Throne this trueborn son of Prince Aemond and rightful king is not going win any war/conflict to come.

In light of the fact that Aegon III is never going to claim another dragon, chances are pretty good, I'd think, that Morning and Silverwing/the Cannibal are going to face Aemond's son on his dragon (who could also be either Silverwing or the Cannibal - I'd favor the latter, considering the rumors about Alys' own 'cannibalistic approach' to her own children - if he doesn't already have a dragon), with either Baela or Viserys becoming dragonriders.

10 minutes ago, Maia said:

Dany faces all the historical opposition to female succession, of course, so her claim isn't iron-clad either - but at least nobody doubts her identity and her claim to "exceptionalism" is well founded, what with hatching dragons after so many failed and being an actual female conqueror. Being Aerys's daughter and Viserys's sister is a liability, though. As is growing up in foreign parts and being surrounded by foreigners.

If Aegon doesn't claim a dragon, he'll have to play up this foreigner-and-evil-woman card. That can have some success while Dany is not yet there, but when she is there dragons should be more powerful than propaganda. They are basically living propaganda. And we already see how important dragons become as symbols of power and legitimacy when they become rare at the end of the Dance.

This is why Daemon II Blackfyre could have likely easily enough toppled Aerys I had the dragon egg actually hatched at Whitewalls.

10 minutes ago, Maia said:

Harrenhal. Some _very_ interesting new tidbits about it. The last Residence of Princess/Queen Rhaena and all this stuff with Alys Rivers witchy powers and Aemond's son... I am really curious how it will all play out. Who was Alys? Was she truly Lucamore's bastard... or? I would say that it is more a foreshadowing for Duncan the Small and his Jenny - as well as their children, if they had any, than anything to do with Jon Snow. Could there be dragon eggs hidden somewhere in the castle? Though Rhaena likely knew better than to let something like that slide again, Vhagar could have laid a clutch too. Speaking of which - did Dany get Elissa's stolen eggs, somehow?

If the stories are wrong that Alys was a daughter of Lord Lyonel, then I think the idea that she was one of Lucamore's daughters fostered with Lord Bywin might be a better alternative. More interesting - but very far out - is the idea she may be a daughter of Queen Rhaena by Maegor Towers.

10 minutes ago, Maia said:

It is also now confirmed that Nettles and Sheepstealer _did_ live in the Mountains of Moon for a time, but I don't really see how a dragon could have hidden there for decades without being seen. The mountains are pretty slim pickings in terms of food, which is why the wildlings have to raid the Vale for their very survival. So, either Sheepstealer died fairly soon or they moved on. Doesn't look like Daemon survived his fall, if she was still there a couple of years into the Regency.

If Daemon survived then the best speculation always was that he ended up on the Isle of Faces rather than making his way back to Nettles.

I don't think both Nettles and Sheepstealer thrived up in the mountains and their snows. Could have contributed to their early deaths. Not before the Burned Men were founded, though. Considering their lifestyle up it should be pretty easy to die if you are injured, and the clansmen would eventually put down the riderless dragon somehow.

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1 hour ago, Maia said:

Let's consider something different instead - it now looks very likely that Rhaegar intended to plead this newly introduced in FaB doctrine of "Targaryen exceptionalism" as a legal basis for his marriage to Lyanna. In this sense, there is an argument for Jon being legitimate - though one that can be disputed since it was historically never applied to polygamy, only to sibling incest. OTOH, it also looks that the "hidden prince" claim has been well and truly poisoned during the reign of Aegon III - and is about to get some more beating with FAegon.

I originally thought it was the whole Exceptionalism Doctrine that Rhaegar could have used, but there' a line about Alysanne considering joining the silent sisters. Fireball ended his marriage like that, but having her join the silent sisters. 

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I found the rumour about the Targ prince who married a bastard Stark girl at Winterfell(forgot his name but pretty sure bet it had an “ae” somewhere in the middle of it), quite intriguing. Especially the bit about them marrying in front of a Heart Tree, if I recall correctly.

Later, or perhaps earlier, ( I get confused as the Targ history all seems to blur into one endless Aenys(hehe), Aegor, Aemon, Daemon, Rhaenys, Vaegon, Aemond, Maegon etc), another Targ runs off and marries his sister or some other inappropriate person in front of a lowly septon, and that too is deemed legitimate.

Both of these present potential options for Rhaegar-Lyanna.

As for Rhaegar already being married - I keep wondering what would be the implication if Elia was proven to have been unfaithful to Rhaegar (with fellow Dornishman Arthur Dayne aka the greatest knight aka Ser Lancelot in my firm view) to the point of her children being Arthurs instead of Rhaegar’s. Hence them smelling Dornish to old mad Aerys.

But anyway. All will be revealed in time.

Edited by Free Northman Reborn

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34 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I found the rumour about the Targ prince who married a bastard Stark girl at Winterfell(forgot his name but pretty sure bet it had an “ae” somewhere in the middle of it), quite intriguing. Especially the bit about them marrying in front of a Heart Tree, if I recall correctly.

Later, or perhaps earlier, ( I get confused as the Targ history all seems to blur into one endless Aenys(hehe), Aegor, Aemon, Daemon, Rhaenys, Vaegon, Aemond, Maegon etc), another Targ runs off and marries his sister or some other inappropriate person in front of a lowly septon, and that too is deemed legitimate.

Both of these present potential options for Rhaegar-Lyanna.

Interesting...

34 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for Rhaegar already being married - I keep wondering what would be the implication if Elia was proven to have been unfaithful to Rhaegar (with fellow Dornishman Arthur Dayne aka the greatest knight aka Ser Lancelot in my firm view) to the point of her children being Arthurs instead of Rhaegar’s. Hence them smelling Dornish to old mad Aerys.

But anyway. All will be revealed in time.

I have a fantabulous crackpot for something similar this as well :lol:

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