The Stannis Plan and why he wrote the Pink Letter.

[three-eyed monkey]

It is a letter sent from Castle Black by Maester Aemon that sets the sequence of events in motion, which eventually leads to the arrival of the so-called Pink Letter at Castle Black.

"Oth . . . other birds have come since, with no words. We . . . fear . . . Mormont slain with all . . . with all his . . . stench . . . no, strength. We fear Mormont slain with all his strength . . ." Davos suddenly realized just what he was reading. He turned the letter over, and saw that the wax that had sealed it had been black. "This is from the Night's Watch. Maester, has King Stannis seen this letter?"

After his defeat on the Blackwater, Stannis’ position is weak and his options are limited. He has little by way of military strength or political currency. That’s when Davos intervenes with the letter. Stannis sees a route back into the war, starting at the Wall where he can distinguish himself as the only king who came to the defence of the realm, and then building his way south from there. There are considerable military and political obstacles in the way, namely Wildlings, Ironmen, Boltons, and the allegiance of the northern lords, but if they can be overcome then the reward of a united North behind him and a strong base from which to conduct a southern campaign is also considerable.

"Yes, I should have come sooner. If not for my Hand, I might not have come at all. Lord Seaworth is a man of humble birth, but he reminded me of my duty, when all I could think of was my rights. I had the cart before the horse, Davos said. I was trying to win the throne to save the kingdom, when I should have been trying to save the kingdom to win the throne."

Interestingly, “win the throne” has now become the end while “save the kingdom” has become the means. Saving the kingdom as a means to winning the throne surely begins with saving and then winning the North.

Stannis first defeats the wildling host at the Wall and captures the King-beyond-the-Wall. However, the victory does not gain the political traction he had hoped it would, and when he demands homage from the northern lords he is largely ignored.

"Two score ravens were sent out," the king complained, "yet we get no response but silence and defiance. Homage is the duty every leal subject owes his king. Yet your father's bannermen all turn their back on me, save the Karstarks. Is Arnolf Karstark the only man of honour in the north?"

...

Stannis read from the letter. "Bear Island knows no king but the King in the North, whose name is STARK. A girl of ten, you say, and she presumes to scold her lawful king." His close-cropped beard lay like a shadow over his hollow cheeks.

The King in the North whose name is Stark, to whom Lyanna Mormont refers, is most likely Jon, legitimised by Robb’s will, but Jon and Stannis could not yet know this. The letter is clearly sent in defiance but it also underlines the reverence with which the Stark name is held in the North. The following comes from Jon’s pov but no doubt Stannis is thinking the same thing.

He did not understand why Lyanna should be writing Stannis, and could not help but wonder if the girl's answer might have been different if the letter had been sealed with a direwolf instead of a crowned stag, and signed by Jon Stark, Lord of Winterfell.

Stannis sends his Hand to treat with White Harbour while he deals with the Wildling situation at the Wall. Like any good commander, he needs to secure his rear before he can hope to push south. There are lessons here in terms of how Stannis solves problems.

"You are free to go," Stannis told them. "Tell your people what you witnessed. Tell them that you saw the true king, and that they are welcome in his realm, so long as they keep his peace."

Stannis offers the remnants of Mance’s host land on the Gift, food, and justice, if they bend the knee. He can see the sense in making a common cause with the Wildings, and this is reflected in his generous terms, but asking them to become kneelers is the obvious sticking point. He considers marrying Val to a northern lord to bolster the deal, a common strategy south of the Wall, but Jon explains why that won’t work.

“Your men call Val a princess, but to the free folk she is only the sister of their king's dead wife. If you force her to marry a man she does not want, she is like to slit his throat on their wedding night. Even if she accepts her husband, that does not mean the wildlings will follow him, or you. The only man who can bind them to your cause is Mance Rayder."

"I know that," Stannis said, unhappily. "I have spent hours speaking with the man. He knows much and more of our true enemy, and there is cunning in him, I'll grant you. Even if he were to renounce his kingship, though, the man remains an oathbreaker. Suffer one deserter to live, and you encourage others to desert. No. Laws should be made of iron, not of pudding. Mance Rayder's life is forfeit by every law of the Seven Kingdoms."

"The law ends at the Wall, Your Grace. You could make good use of Mance."

That Mance knows much and more about the true enemy is secondary at this stage. If Stannis is to have any chance of binding the wildlings to his cause then he needs Mance. Despite all Stannis says about laws being made of iron, he is quick to take advantage of this legal loophole of sorts and keep Mance alive; a fact later confirmed to Jon by both Mance and Mel.

"Stannis burned the wrong man."

"No." The wildling grinned at him through a mouth of brown and broken teeth. "He burned the man he had to burn, for all the world to see. We all do what we have to do, Snow. Even kings."

...

"Our false king has a prickly manner," Melisandre told Jon Snow, "but he will not betray you. We hold his son, remember. And he owes you his very life."

"Me?" Snow sounded startled.

"Who else, my lord? Only his life's blood could pay for his crimes, your laws said, and Stannis Baratheon is not a man to go against the law … but as you said so sagely, the laws of men end at the Wall.”

Stannis’ bind on the Wildlings is tenuous at best, but he clearly subverted the law to preserve Mance as the ace-up-his-sleeve. It should be noted that by the time Stannis leaves the Wall the majority of Mance’s host were still in the Haunted Forest and Stannis had not yet the opportunity to play that card the way he would have wished. Stannis waits for the Wildlings to return but once he hears that Ramsay has taken his host south to Moat Cailin, he knows he must move.

“I have lingered here in the hopes that the wildlings would be fool enough to mount another attack upon the Wall. As they will not oblige me, it is time I dealt with my other foes."

...

“The Bastard of Bolton has gone south, taking Hother Umber with him. On that Mors Umber and Arnolf Karstark are agreed. That can only mean a strike at Moat Cailin, to open the way for his lord father to return to the north. The bastard must think I am too busy with the wildlings to trouble him. Well and good. The boy has shown me his throat. I mean to rip it out.”

Stannis’ first instinct is to move against the Dreadfort but Jon advises against it.

Jon glanced down at the map. "Deepwood Motte." He tapped it with a finger. "If Bolton means to fight the ironmen, so must you. Deepwood is a motte-and-bailey castle in the midst of thick forest, easy to creep up on unawares. A wooden castle, defended by an earthen dike and a palisade of logs. The going will be slower through the mountains, admittedly, but up there your host can move unseen, to emerge almost at the gates of Deepwood."

Stannis rubbed his jaw. "When Balon Greyjoy rose the first time, I beat the ironmen at sea, where they are fiercest. On land, taken unawares … aye. I have won a victory over the wildlings and their King-Beyond-the-Wall. If I can smash the ironmen as well, the north will know it has a king again."

Stannis sees the military and political advantages to such a move and takes Jon’s advice, recruiting the clansmen along the way. Deepwood Motte is easily taken and Asha captured, who holds some value to Stannis as a prize.

Her life meant little and less to him. She was only his hostage, a prize to show the north that he could vanquish the ironborn.

At Deepwood Motte, Stannis receives news that the Boltons are moving on Winterfell and knows he must march again. Later, at the crofter’s village, Theon falls into Stannis’ hands.

"I know what he wants." The king indicated Theon. "Him. Wull wants him dead. Flint, Norrey... all of them will want him dead. For the boys he slew. Vengeance for their precious Ned."

"Will you oblige them?"

"Just now, the turncloak is more use to me alive. He has knowledge we may need."

It’s no surprise that Stannis wants to mine Theon for information, but he has value beyond that. His death would appease the northmen, true, but alive he is the son and lawful heir of Balon Greyjoy, with a better claim than Asha and male besides. In Theon, Stannis faces the exact dilemma he faced with Mance, so perhaps we should expect him to at least attempt to solve that problem in a similar fashion, keeping Theon alive with a view to using him at some time in the future. As we saw with Mance, Stannis will find a way do whatever he needs to do, but one thing he doesn’t need to do right now is use Theon to appease the north when he has been openly trying to achieve that goal by other means since he first arrived at the Wall.

"Tywin Lannister has named Roose Bolton his Warden of the North, to reward him for betraying your brother. The ironmen are fighting amongst themselves since Balon Greyjoy's death, yet they still hold Moat Cailin, Deepwood Motte, Torrhen's Square, and most of the Stony Shore. Your father's lands are bleeding, and I have neither the strength nor the time to stanch the wounds. What is needed is a Lord of Winterfell. A loyal Lord of Winterfell."

He is looking at me, Jon thought, stunned. "Winterfell is no more. Theon Greyjoy put it to the torch."

"Granite does not burn easily," Stannis said. "The castle can be rebuilt, in time. It's not the walls that make a lord, it's the man. Your northmen do not know me, have no reason to love me, yet I will need their strength in the battles yet to come. I need a son of Eddard Stark to win them to my banner."

Stannis explains what a loyal Lord of Winterfell, ideally a son of Eddard Stark, would do for him and only Jon fits that bill. It should be noted that Stannis is not fully aware of the extent of any northern ambitions of independence, Robb’s will, or Bran and Rickon being alive. But there’s no need to get too far ahead when the more immediate objection comes from Jon.

All he had to do was say the word, and he would be Jon Stark, and nevermore a Snow. All he had to do was pledge this king his fealty, and Winterfell was his. All he had to do . . . was forswear his vows again.

...

"No," Jon said, too quickly. It was Winterfell the king was speaking of, and Winterfell was not to be lightly refused. "I mean . . . this has all come very suddenly, Your Grace. Might I beg you for some time to consider?"

"As you wish. But consider quickly. I am not a patient man, as your black brothers are about to discover." Stannis put a thin, fleshless hand on Jon's shoulder. "Say nothing of what we've discussed here today. To anyone. But when you return, you need only bend your knee, lay your sword at my feet, and pledge yourself to my service, and you shall rise again as Jon Stark, the Lord of Winterfell."

...

“Without a son of Winterfell to stand beside me, I can only hope to win the north by battle."

...

Jon said, "Winterfell belongs to my sister Sansa."

"I have heard all I need to hear of Lady Lannister and her claim." The king set the cup aside. "You could bring the north to me. Your father's bannermen would rally to the son of Eddard Stark. Even Lord Too-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse. White Harbour would give me a ready source of supply and a secure base to which I could retreat at need. It is not too late to amend your folly, Snow. Take a knee and swear that bastard sword to me, and rise as Jon Stark, Lord of Winterfell and Warden of the North."

How many times will he make me say it? "My sword is sworn to the Night's Watch."

Stannis looked disgusted. "Your father was a stubborn man as well. Honor, he called it. Well, honor has its costs, as Lord Eddard learned to his sorrow. If it gives you any solace, Horpe and Massey are doomed to disappointment. I am more inclined to bestow Winterfell upon Arnolf Karstark. A good northman."

Stannis lays it out clearly. Jon Stark, Lord of Winterfell would bring the North to him. The Northmen would rally to the son of Eddard Stark. It would give him access to White Harbour. Stannis does not consider Sansa an option, it has to be Jon.

Unfortunately for Stannis, Jon repeatedly refuses to forswear his vows. Stannis needs to overcome this obstacle or else find someone else who can bring him the North in the same manner Jon could, but there is a lack of alternative candidates. Arnolf Karstark is a distant second at this stage, with Stannis wisely inclined to choose a northman over southron knights like Horpe and Massey. Still, Jon’s reaction to his father’s seat going to the Karstarks will not have escaped Stannis.

"A northman." Better a Karstark than a Bolton or a Greyjoy, Jon told himself, but the thought gave him little solace. "The Karstarks abandoned my brother amongst his enemies."

Jon openly declares his misgivings about the Karstarks and Stannis must have realised that there is still a chance he could get his man, if it wasn’t for his vows. The letter from Lyanna Mormont, as well as the mountain clans’ respect for Ned and determination to rescue Arya, will only have further strengthened Stannis’ belief that he needs a loyal Stark if he is to win the North.

And when, at Deepwood Motte, Stannis read the letter from Ramsay signed, “Trueborn Lord of Winterfell”, he must have wondered how that would sit with Jon; the Bastard of Bolton now signing letters as the trueborn Lord of Winterfell while the son of Eddard Stark remained a bastard. If Jon was unhappy with a Karstark in his father’s seat then how must he feel about a Bolton bastard? Jon would not break his vows for Stannis but might he break them for Ramsay, the king must have pondered.

By the time he has Theon at the crofters village we see Stannis planning a few steps ahead, beyond Winterfell and the North, as evidenced by him sending Justin Massey to Braavos and the Disputed Lands if necessary to hire sellswords, something that will not be accomplished in time to help with the taking of Winterfell or the winning of the North. If indeed the sellswords should ever arrive, and we know that most companies are currently engaged elsewhere, it’s much more likely that they will be used for the push south after the North has been secured.

Once Stannis hears that the Boltons have blundered and sent out a portion of their strength against him he sees the opportunity to both win at the crofters village, given that he holds “the ground”, and gain entry to Winterfell, given that he has defused the Karstark plot and now holds Maester Tybald.

If Stannis succeeds and wins Winterfell then he must next win the North to his cause. But Arnolf Karstark, his distant second choice to Jon, just crossed himself off the very short list of alternative candidates. Furthermore, the Karstarks’ treachery was exposed by Jon of all people, enhancing his reputation as loyal in Stannis’ eyes. Stannis just needs Jon to break his vows and finally accept his offer, the question is, how can he make that happen? As it turns out, his only option, given the distance between them, is a harshly worded letter. Stannis had asked Jon on several occasions and was refused every time, but the lesson of Proudwing has not been forgotten. It was time to try another hawk. A pink hawk.

Bastard, was the only word written outside the scroll. No Lord Snow or Jon Snow or Lord Commander. Simply Bastard. And the letter was sealed with a smear of hard pink wax. "You were right to come at once," Jon said. You were right to be afraid. He cracked the seal, flattened the parchment, and read.

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back. I want the false king's queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want his wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard's heart and eat it.

It was signed,

Ramsay Bolton,

Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.

The letter is clearly antagonistic in tone from the very outset. It first informs Jon that the Boltons have already won against Stannis, removing any hope that Stannis might yet win and render the letter redundant.

It next blames Jon for crimes he did not commit, namely saving Mance and then sending him to kidnap the Lord of Winterfell’s bride, serious crimes punishable by death. The letter later informs Jon that there is proof of these crimes, i.e. Mance, therefore any plea of innocence from Jon will be difficult to sustain.

The letter also tells Jon that “Arya” is no longer a hostage of the Boltons, removing her as a deterrent to how Jon might want and choose to act.

The letter informs Jon that the man who rescued Arya is dangling like a carrot in Winterfell, begging to be rescued, and that the women who helped him have all been skinned, underlining Ramsay’s cruel and dishonourable nature.

The letter makes a list of demands, all of whom have personal or political value to Stannis. The kicker here is the “wildling princess” and “little prince”, as only Stannis and his entourage consider them thus. It must be noted that complying with the letter and handing over those demanded by Ramsay, considering the fate of the spearwives, is not an option that is likely to appeal to Jon but it does remain an option and should be accounted for. Yes, Stannis already has Reek and “Arya”, but as the letter is meant to be from Ramsay their absence would be notable. What is also notable is the use of the terms “I want my bride back” and “And I want my Reek”. This is very close to a direct quote of what Theon said to Stannis, change of person aside.

“He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek." Theon's laugh was half a titter, half a whimper.

Finally, the letter gives Jon an ultimatum, which leaves him with three logical options. 1] comply with the demands, send Ramsay five more women, Theon, and a baby, and then hope Ramsay is true to his word and leaves Jon alone. 2] defy the letter and wait for Ramsay to come to him. 3] defy the letter and go to Ramsay. Stannis has seen more than enough from Jon to make an accurate assessment of which of these Jon is likely to choose. Of course, if Jon does make that choice, as indeed he does, that means forswearing his vows.

“This creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women has sworn to cut my heart out, and I mean to make him answer for those words … but I will not ask my brothers to forswear their vows.”

The question as to where and when the Pink Letter was written remains open. All we can say for certain is that it was written sometime after Theon I TWoW and before Jeyne and company reach Castle Black. This is a 2-4 week journey depending on the weather and assuming that at least one person from the party will eventually get there. That’s more than enough time for Stannis to win the battle with the Freys using the frozen lake, send word to Winterfell of a Frey victory, and gain entry to the castle disguised as the returning victors, all of which could be accomplished in several days.

It’s possible the letter was sent from the village, but there is no mention of ravens in the lengthy description of Stannis’ baggage train as it leaves Deepwood, and it seems both of Tybald’s ravens are trained for Winterfell. I think the letter is more likely sent from Winterfell after Stannis has taken the castle, which means that Mance may be in Stannis’ possession once again and may be involved somehow. Some of the language is reminiscent of Mance. It is very probable that Tybald wielded the pen as it is Stannis’ preferred style to dictate letters to a maester. If so then it was followed by his swift execution for treachery, because Stannis needs to keep this stroke a secret as it is essential that Jon never learns the truth of the matter.

A caveat on chronology; it should be noted that both the battle of ice and fire were originally intended to be in ADwD, so would probably have come before the climactic Jon XIII in chapter order. And GRRM has confirmed that some events at the start of TWoW do take place before some events at the end of ADwD.

So, if Jon wasn’t stabbed, what was next in Stannis’ plan? Well, Jon would have broken his vows, rode to Winterfell, found Stannis in possession of the castle. Ramsay would be dead and the assumption would be he wrote the letter before he died, sometime after receiving Stannis’ false message of a Frey victory. Bowen Marsh, still keen to appease King’s Landing, would be calling for Jon’s head as an oathbreaker, leaving Stannis with a by now familiar decision, the same one he faced with Mance and possibly Theon, does he burn the man or do what he needs to do to keep him alive? With Jon’s vows already broken and death as the alternative, what choice would he have but accept Stannis' offer.

Jon Stark, pardoned and legitimized by the true king, would become the Lord of Winterfell and Warden of the North. Stannis would hope that the North would rally to the sight of the Direwolf over Winterfell once again. This, along with his victory at the Wall, liberation of Deepwood Motte, capture of Balon Greyjoy’s children, rescue of “Arya Stark”, the vengeance and justice he brought to the Bolton’s for their betrayal of Robb, not to mention that he plans to bring the same to the Lannisters at King’s Landing, should be enough to win the North to his cause, or so Stannis would have hoped.

Stannis would next attempt to tie it all together by, for example, marrying Val to Jon to strengthen the bind with the Wildlings, or creating a new lordship and title on the Gift for Mance to go with the lands he promised, which would put a lord who commanded the Wildlings’ respect in place to keep the king’s peace. Stannis could allow Mance his “heir”, as a true king pays his debts (though it would be false coin just like the debt he paid to Jon with Jeyne), or he could make the child a ward of Winterfell. Theon might be used to usurp Euron’s rule if ever the opportunity arose, which would make Asha a potential match for a northern lord. And there is a new marriage for Arya to consider. I’m speculating, but the point is he has political options. After that, Stannis could plan and prepare for the push south while waiting for Massey, who was forewarned about rumours of Stannis death, to return with the sellswords.

The conspirators’ knives shredded the plan, but even if they had not the North’s own agenda to fulfill Robb’s will and declare Jon the King in the North would have most likely prevailed. But with Jon now “dead”, Rickon’s stock has suddenly risen, and who could bet against Ser Davos?

 

Thanks for reading.

[Three-Fingered Pete]

A good read and very plausible. I only see one fly in your ointment: all that deviousness is outside Stannis' character. If he had won the battle and was feeling magnanimous at all he would have contacted Jon and remade his offer to restore Winterfell to the Starks under Jon's rule. If that was again refused, he would have just given it to the Karstarks liked he planned to do.

Now if Rickon shows up in Davos' protection, giving Stannis the leverage he needs with the northern lords, Jon being stabbed won't amount to a hill of beans with him.

"Stupid boy should have accepted my offer," would be the response I'd expect from Stannis.

[three-eyed monkey]

8 minutes ago, Trefayne said:

A good read and very plausible. I only see one fly in your ointment: all that deviousness is outside Stannis' character. If he had won the battle and was feeling magnanimous at all he would have contacted Jon and remade his offer to restore Winterfell to the Starks under Jon's rule. If that was again refused, he would have just given it to the Karstarks liked he planned to do.

Now if Rickon shows up in Davos' protection, giving Stannis the leverage he needs with the northern lords, Jon being stabbed won't amount to a hill of beans with him.

"Stupid boy should have accepted my offer," would be the response I'd expect from Stannis.

I think Stannis is quite devious, despite his just and righteous mask. On one side of the argument is the fact that he removed a lie about Robert being his beloved brother from a letter to the realm where it is widely known there was no love between the brothers. On the other hand there is the fact that he does not believe in gods, yet continues the charade surrounding the Red God, to the extent that he has put a flaming heart on his banner. He is skeptical about "Lightbringer" yet he brandishes it to effect whenever the awe-factor is needed. And he actually burned Rattleshirt instead of Mance, subverting the law, which is clearly devious.

Stannis has made the offer to Jon plainly on several occasions and received the same reply.  He says he learned his lesson with Proudwing. That's why he needs to try another hawk.

The Karstarks have ruled themselves out of the equation. They were plotting with Ramsay and Stannis uncovered the plot with help from Jon. Stannis told them they are dead, only the manner of their dying need be determined. He's not going to make Arnolf or his soft and rather slow son Lord of Winterfell. He needs to restore a Stark, preferably male and of age.

 

[Three-Fingered Pete]

9 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I think Stannis is quite devious, despite his just and righteous mask. On one side of the argument is the fact that he removed a lie about Robert being his beloved brother from a letter to the realm where it is widely known there was no love between the brothers. On the other hand there is the fact that he does not believe in gods, yet continues the charade surrounding the Red God, to the extent that he has put a flaming heart on his banner. He is skeptical about "Lightbringer" yet he brandishes it to effect whenever the awe-factor is needed. And he actually burned Rattleshirt instead of Mance, subverting the law, which is clearly devious.

 

See, this is the point I always get snagged on with Stannis. Is he allowing himself to be deceived by this religious fervor wave that he is riding or is it all just some cunning ruse to keep these zealots on his side to fight for him? Also, he seems different to me without his close advisors around (Davos/Mel) or perhaps that's just GRRM making seem that way from Asha's POV.

Like I said, I like it and I wouldn't be disappointed if it turned out that way. I'm just on the fence about motivation.

[Nevets]

@three-eyed monkey He has a Stark in his possession: Arya.  He can fly the direwolf in her name as effectively as Jon's.  Maybe more so, as she is a trueborn Stark.  Neither he nor anyone else has any reason to believe she's a fake, and he is perfectly capable of moving in her name.  If he's beaten the Boltons, he's essentially won the North.   If not, I doubt he would expect that whatever forces Jon can bring with him would help much (he has no way to know about Tormund and the men he brought with him).

You are suggesting Stannis takes the castle via a "false flag" maneuver.  This is something familiar to the Boltons (Ramsay used it the last time Winterfell changed hands), so I would expect them to be on the watch for it.  Nobody's getting unless they are recognized or clearly vouched for.  

Also, Stannis sent FArya to Jon at the Wall, which would suggest that he doesn't think he has need of a Stark to be present.  If he were expecting Jon to show up, he would keep her there; it make actually please Jon (remember, he has no way to know she's fake).

Another problem is that if Jon leaves the Wall in disgrace, it leaves the distinct possibility of an enemy at the Wall.  This is not at all in Stnanis's interests.  The letter itself could also induce those named in the letter to evacuate, something also likely not in Stannis's interest.

[three-eyed monkey]

1 hour ago, Trefayne said:

 

See, this is the point I always get snagged on with Stannis. Is he allowing himself to be deceived by this religious fervor wave that he is riding or is it all just some cunning ruse to keep these zealots on his side to fight for him? Also, he seems different to me without his close advisors around (Davos/Mel) or perhaps that's just GRRM making seem that way from Asha's POV.

Like I said, I like it and I wouldn't be disappointed if it turned out that way. I'm just on the fence about motivation.

The issue of religious fervor and how good Stannis is at lying to himself is open to debate, but the fact that Mance is breathing proves that Stannis is capable of being devious.

I accept you're on the fence about motivation but can we at least agree that GRRM sticks a flag on Stannis' motive in several places in the text.

2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Your northmen do not know me, have no reason to love me, yet I will need their strength in the battles yet to come. I need a son of Eddard Stark to win them to my banner

 

2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

But when you return, you need only bend your knee, lay your sword at my feet, and pledge yourself to my service, and you shall rise again as Jon Stark, the Lord of Winterfell."

 

2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

“Without a son of Winterfell to stand beside me, I can only hope to win the north by battle."

 

2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

"You could bring the north to me. Your father's bannermen would rally to the son of Eddard Stark. Even Lord Too-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse. White Harbour would give me a ready source of supply and a secure base to which I could retreat at need. It is not too late to amend your folly, Snow. Take a knee and swear that bastard sword to me, and rise as Jon Stark, Lord of Winterfell and Warden of the North."

 

[Three-Fingered Pete]

9 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

The issue of religious fervor and how good Stannis is at lying to himself is open to debate, but the fact that Mance is breathing proves that Stannis is capable of being devious.

I accept you're on the fence about motivation but can we at least agree that GRRM sticks a flag on Stannis' motive in several places in the text.

 

Capable of being devious in tactics and strategy in order to take an objective? Absolutely. Stannis wants to get Jon on his side. How better to do that than save his sister from the clutches of the traitorous Boltons? Stannis is strict, but not unfair/unforgiving in his own way. Davos is proof of that, so allowing Mance to slide in order to attempt a suicide mission to try and redeem himself is not outside Stannis' character.

Those cited instances sort of prove my point though. All those cunning (and strategically sound) plans fall through and yet there Stannis is, freezing and starving in the snow trying to win by battle all on stubborn blind faith. The only cards he really holds are fArya and Theon to unbalance the Bolton's objectives and cause them to act rashly.

[three-eyed monkey]

9 minutes ago, Nevets said:

@three-eyed monkey He has a Stark in his possession: Arya.  He can fly the direwolf in her name as effectively as Jon's.  Maybe more so, as she is a trueborn Stark.  Neither he nor anyone else has any reason to believe she's a fake, and he is perfectly capable of moving in her name.  If he's beaten the Boltons, he's essentially won the North.   If not, I doubt he would expect that whatever forces Jon can bring with him would help much (he has no way to know about Tormund and the men he brought with him).

You are suggesting Stannis takes the castle via a "false flag" maneuver.  This is something familiar to the Boltons (Ramsay used it the last time Winterfell changed hands), so I would expect them to be on the watch for it.  Nobody's getting unless they are recognized or clearly vouched for.  

Also, Stannis sent FArya to Jon at the Wall, which would suggest that he doesn't think he has need of a Stark to be present.  If he were expecting Jon to show up, he would keep her there; it make actually please Jon (remember, he has no way to know she's fake).

Another problem is that if Jon leaves the Wall in disgrace, it leaves the distinct possibility of an enemy at the Wall.  This is not at all in Stnanis's interests.  The letter itself could also induce those named in the letter to evacuate, something also likely not in Stannis's interest.

There are a number of reasons why Jon is a far stronger candidate than Arya in Stannis eyes. We know this for certain because he has offered Winterfell to Jon on several occasions but never once mentioned it to Arya or mentioned Arya in the context of rallying the North. Stannis has seen Jon in action, knows Jon is competent, watched Jon take off Slynt's head, knows Jon is loyal as proved by his letter about the Karstarks, and knows Jon is honorable. Plus Stannis is quite sexist in these matters, for example, when he made his thoughts known about his view on spearwives in battle, Or take Asha's observation:

"She was only his hostage, a prize to show the north that he could vanquish the ironborn.

More fool him. Bringing down a woman was not like to awe any northmen, if she knew the breed, and her worth as a hostage was less than naught. Her uncle ruled the Iron Islands now, and the Crow's Eye would not care if she lived or died. It might matter some to the wretched ruin of a husband that Euron had inflicted upon her, but Eric Ironmaker did not have coin enough to ransom her. But there was no explaining such things to Stannis Baratheon. Her very womanhood seemed to offend him. Men from the green lands liked their women soft and sweet in silk, she knew, not clad in mail and leather with a throwing axe in each hand. But her short acquaintance with the king at Deepwood Motte convinced her that he would have been no more fond of her in a gown. Even with Galbart Glover's wife, the pious Lady Sybelle, he had been correct and courteous but plainly uncomfortable. This southron king seemed to be one of those men to whom women are another race, as strange and unfathomable as giants and grumkins and the children of the forest. The She-Bear made him grind his teeth as well."

Regards gaining entrance to Winterfell, Stannis has a couple of things to his advantage. The weather to begin with, and a raven from Tybald claiming victory with the victors due to return would be quite disarming. I think it's very plausible.

Stannis sent Arya to the Wall to pay his debt to Jon, as he said he would in his letter to Jon from Deepwood Motte. As I've said already, Stannis has no interest in Arya or indeed Sansa as his Warden of the North and clearly does not believe, rightly or wrongly, that they are strong enough to rally the North for him. The best use for Arya, as he sees it, is to repay Jon's loyalty.

There is a risk that the people demanded in the letter could flee. It is a time for Stannis to take risks. It is certain Stannis will lose an ally at the Wall if Jon comes south, but the gain of that same ally at Winterfell is what his campaign needs now, so the gain far outweighs the loss. Losing the Wall is not ideal but when traded against gaining the North then it's expendable, temporarily at least.

   

[Nevets]

44 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Stannis sent Arya to the Wall to pay his debt to Jon, as he said he would in his letter to Jon from Deepwood Motte.

How is he repaying his debt to Jon by sending her to the Wall if he is no longer there?  Better to keep her around and watch the happy reunion.

47 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

There is a risk that the people demanded in the letter could flee. It is a time for Stannis to take risks. It is certain Stannis will lose an ally at the Wall if Jon comes south, but the gain of that same ally at Winterfell is what his campaign needs now, so the gain far outweighs the loss. Losing the Wall is not ideal but when traded against gaining the North then it's expendable, temporarily at least.

I'm still not sure what he needs Jon for at this point.  He is unlikely to bring much in the way of troops with him.  If stannis has taken Winterfell, he has essentially won.  Even the Manderlys are likely to bend the knee (especially if they wish to avoid retaliation for the "execution" of Davos).  If he doesn't have Winterfell, I don't know how he expects Jon to help.  He is unlikely to bring substantial forces with (as far as Stannis knows), and any allies are either present, or unable to show up because of prevailing conditions.

[lrresistable]

Really enjoyed your analysis, I have also been of the opinion Stannis wrote the letter for a while now

 

It may have been Stannis's plan to consolidate Sell-swords for the South, as you say, before events at The Wall turned to a head in the form of the letter. This was the catalyst spark that marked the go a-head assassination on Jon by Bowen & his co-conspirators. Stannis will turn back North when he hears this news.

[three-eyed monkey]

23 minutes ago, Nevets said:

How is he repaying his debt to Jon by sending her to the Wall if he is no longer there?  Better to keep her around and watch the happy reunion.

"I will save your sister if I can, and find a better match for her than Ramsay Snow."

As far as Stannis is concerned Arya has been saved. I doubt he cares about the reunion. and making her a better match is not an immediate concern.

23 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I'm still not sure what he needs Jon for at this point.  He is unlikely to bring much in the way of troops with him.  If stannis has taken Winterfell, he has essentially won.  Even the Manderlys are likely to bend the knee (especially if they wish to avoid retaliation for the "execution" of Davos).  If he doesn't have Winterfell, I don't know how he expects Jon to help.  He is unlikely to bring substantial forces with (as far as Stannis knows), and any allies are either present, or unable to show up because of prevailing conditions.

You may be unsure why Stannis needs Jon, but Stannis has made it clear in the text several times, all cited above.

You may also think that winning Winterfell means Stannis has esentially won but that is not the case, he has stated that the northmen have no love for him, as evidenced by their refusal to pay homage, and Stannis has again stated in the text that he believes he needs a loyal Lord of Winterfell and a son of Eddard Stark to win the northmen to his cause. He doesn't need Jon to bring forces with him, he just needs Jon to break his vows and accept his offer, and in doing so bring all the swords in the North with him.

[three-eyed monkey]

@Irresistable Thank you. Get aboard.

[kissdbyfire]

4 hours ago, Trefayne said:

See, this is the point I always get snagged on with Stannis. Is he allowing himself to be deceived by this religious fervor wave that he is riding or is it all just some cunning ruse to keep these zealots on his side to fight for him?

I have been trying to pull up the quote since I read this, but too much going on so can’t at the mo. But defo the latter. He even says something along the lines of, “she [Mel]has power, and I mean to use it”. 

Also, “no more burnings. pray harder”. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

Stannis needs Jon. Stannis can win back Winterfell, kill the Boltons and the Freys, but he is nothing to the northmen and he knows that. They are marching with him to save Arya and to take back Winterfell. He may be looking at Jon as his rallying point for the northmen, the son of Ned Stark. 

King Stannis gazed off north again, his gold cloak streaming from his shoulders. "It may be that I am mistaken in you, Jon Snow. We both know the things that are said of bastards. You may lack your father's honor, or your brother's skill in arms. But you are the weapon the Lord has given me. I have found you here, as you found the cache of dragonglass beneath the Fist, and I mean to make use of you. Even Azor Ahai did not win his war alone. (Jon XI, ASOS 76)

[Three-Fingered Pete]

31 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I have been trying to pull up the quote since I read this, but too much going on so can’t at the mo. But defo the latter. He even says something along the lines of, “she [Mel]has power, and I mean to use it”. 

Also, “no more burnings. pray harder”. 

 

I remember him saying those things, but it still hasn't convinced me that Stannis' hasn't gone all Knights Templar and believes he has a destiny beyond the IT. He just hasn't turned into a religious puddle of goo like Lancel, so using Mel's power to further his military goals isn't out of line if he believes the hype.

[HexMachina]

10 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

"I will save your sister if I can, and find a better match for her than Ramsay Snow."

As far as Stannis is concerned Arya has been saved. I doubt he cares about the reunion. and making her a better match is not an immediate concern.

You may be unsure why Stannis needs Jon, but Stannis has made it clear in the text several times, all cited above.

You may also think that winning Winterfell means Stannis has esentially won but that is not the case, he has stated that the northmen have no love for him, as evidenced by their refusal to pay homage, and Stannis has again stated in the text that he believes he needs a loyal Lord of Winterfell and a son of Eddard Stark to win the northmen to his cause. He doesn't need Jon to bring forces with him, he just needs Jon to break his vows and accept his offer, and in doing so bring all the swords in the North with him.

How would you factor Rickon into all of this? On the basis that Stannis has won WF and is dealing with Manderly, something must have been said about Davos. Do you think Manderly (if he even lived that long, he was in awful shape last we saw him) would reveal that Davos has been sent to find Rickon? That Bran was also possibly alive? If so, these matters would have to factor in to the likelihood of Stannis sending for Jon and getting him to break his vows. Jon already showed Stannis he is stubborn and not always going to act the way Stannis wants. A young Rickon is much more pliable, comes without the baggage of oathbreaking and is a legitimate son to boot. 

Just curious how he factors in to your ideas (I mean that genuinely btw, not being facetious)

[Nevets]

8 hours ago, HelenaExMachina said:

How would you factor Rickon into all of this? On the basis that Stannis has won WF and is dealing with Manderly, something must have been said about Davos. Do you think Manderly (if he even lived that long, he was in awful shape last we saw him) would reveal that Davos has been sent to find Rickon? That Bran was also possibly alive? If so, these matters would have to factor in to the likelihood of Stannis sending for Jon and getting him to break his vows. Jon already showed Stannis he is stubborn and not always going to act the way Stannis wants. A young Rickon is much more pliable, comes without the baggage of oathbreaking and is a legitimate son to boot. 

Just curious how he factors in to your ideas (I mean that genuinely btw, not being facetious)

One fly in this ointment is that Stannis will probably be under the impression that Davos was executed by the Manderlys.  The Freys will certainly be happy to tell him that, and even most of the Manderly men probably believe it as well.  Stannis may believe the story of Davos being sent after Rickon is a lie to save Manderly's skin, or at least face.  Just because something is true doesn't mean it will be believed, especially if the teller has a clear motive to lie.

Which is a probable motive of the PL.  Ramsay is establishing that Jon is a liar and an enemy of the Crown, thus damaging his credibility.  If he says FArya is fake, he can more easily be branded a liar.

[HexMachina]

2 minutes ago, Nevets said:

One fly in this ointment is that Stannis will probably be under the impression that Davos was executed by the Manderlys.  The Freys will certainly be happy to tell him that, and even most of the Manderly men probably believe it as well.  Stannis may believe the story of Davos being sent after Rickon is a lie to save Manderly's skin, or at least face.  Just because something is true doesn't mean it will be believed, especially if the teller has a clear motive to lie.

Which is a probable motive of the PL.  Ramsay is establishing that Jon is a liar and an enemy of the Crown, thus damaging his credibility.  If he says FArya is fake, he can more easily be branded a liar.

I didn't really communicate it very well but that was part of my point, that Stannis will be....displeased, to put it mildly, with Manderly for executing his Hand. It would be ill advised if Manderly or whoever is in charge in the event of his death/incapacity did not then mention Rickon, though of course Stannis may just not believe him as you say. Bur it should still factor into any decision made by Stannis to call Jon to Winterfell

[three-eyed monkey]

8 hours ago, HelenaExMachina said:

How would you factor Rickon into all of this? On the basis that Stannis has won WF and is dealing with Manderly, something must have been said about Davos. Do you think Manderly (if he even lived that long, he was in awful shape last we saw him) would reveal that Davos has been sent to find Rickon? That Bran was also possibly alive? If so, these matters would have to factor in to the likelihood of Stannis sending for Jon and getting him to break his vows. Jon already showed Stannis he is stubborn and not always going to act the way Stannis wants. A young Rickon is much more pliable, comes without the baggage of oathbreaking and is a legitimate son to boot. 

There were two parties interested in Jon, and that clash was due to come to a head at Winterfell until the Pink Letter and the law of unintended consequences, a favorite tool of GRRM, came into play. That's what all the clues in all the northern arcs in ADwD were building towards, but the conspirators at the Wall changed the endgame completely.

The northern lords know Bran and Rickon survived the sack of Winterfell, but it seems certain due to their actions that they wanted to honor Robb's will. I believe the plan was to basically leave Stannis and the Bolton/Frey alliance fight to the death and then sweep the survivors aside and crown Jon Stark as Lord of Winterfell and King in the North. But they too were undone by Stannis' letter. Naturally, Bran and Rickon would be next. Bran is beyond their reach now but they at least know where Rickon is. If you believe, like I do, that Manderly sent Davos on a wild goose chase for Rickon to distract from their real interest in Jon, then that decision is coming back to bite Wyman on his considerable ass.

So when Stannis takes Winterfell it doesn't really matter if Wyman is alive or not as there are other northern lords in the know. But as they are essentially opposing Stannis as they are looking for independence then I don't think they'll willingly tell Stannis about Davos and Rickon, more likely they would want to recover their error and get to Davos before Davos gets to Stannis. A lot depends on the balance of power in Winterfell after Stannis takes the castle. Some people theorize that Robett Glover is nearby with a secret northern host or at least reinforcements. That would change things if it were true.

But I think the most likely thing is that Davos throws Stannis a lifeline once again, simply because I think there are a couple of things in Stannis' arc that have been set-up but not paid-off yet. For example, save the kingdom or win the throne is probably a decision he will have to make before he dies, and to me that means he'll be in a position where he has to choose marching south for King's Landing or turning around and making a stand against an advancing enemy from the north.

[three-eyed monkey]

@HelenaExMachinaStannis will definitely want to serve some hot justice to Lord too-fat, who he has nothing but contempt for anyway, assuming he does hold the power in Winterfell. But there are political implications to be considered for Stannis. He also needs White Harbour. It will be interesting to see how it plays out, but yeah, Davos false execution will be a factor.