The Stannis Plan and why he wrote the Pink Letter.

[three-eyed monkey]

53 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Jon isn't going to be of any help with the first two objectives.   He is too far away, and can (so far as Stannis knows) bring no reinforcements.

Agreed. This is stated in the OP.

54 minutes ago, Nevets said:

As for the third objective, if he beats the Boltons and takes Winterfell, the North is likely to fall into his lap in any case.  If he felt he needed a Stark on hand, having Arya as a figurehead would probably be about as useful as having Jon.

Again, I refer you to the text. Stannis clearly states he wants Jon to be his Lord of Winterfell, several times, and never once mentions Arya as a possible alternative to Jon. He doesn't just feel the need for a Stark on hand, he needs a loyal Lord of Winterfell, a son of Eddard Stark. Even if he were to use Arya as a figurehead, he would still need to appoint someone to rule until she is of age, which means she would only provide a partial solution. You may think Arya is a reasonable alternative but Stannis clearly does not.

Stannis has no reason to believe the north will fall into his lap if he takes Winterfell. The northern lords did not pay him homage, instead they paid homage to Roose at Barrowtown. Plus they chose independence under a King in the North not so long ago, a rival to Stannis in the War of 5 Kings. He knows they see him as a southron invader. Taking Winterfell has obvious advantages, but if he ever wants to be able to march south he needs some degree of political stability in the north, and that means a strong and loyal Lord of Winterfell and the northern lords bound to his cause.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

And he is going to have a hard time "keeping his promise" to Jon regarding Arya if Jon isn't even at the Wall when she arrives!

Stannis promised he would try to save Jon's sister. She is on her way to the Wall with an escort. The debt is paid.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Stannis's serious efforts at recruiting Jon all take place before his election as LC.   Afterwards, he grumbles about it ("Stannis with a grievance was like a mastiff with a bone.  He gnawed it to splinters.", thinks Jon), but makes no serious attempt to recruit Jon once he is LC. 

This is just wrong. Jon is elected Lord Commander in Jon XII ASoS. Most of the quotes cited in the OP are from ADwD.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

He seems resigned to the fact that Jon is staying on the Wall.

Does he? Can you cite text that demonstrates this?

Stannis Baratheon with a grievance was like a mastiff with a bone; he gnawed it down to splinters.

This quote you cite shows that Stannis will not let the grievance go, like a dog with a bone. There is no sense of resignation, quite the opposite in fact.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

He does say that he will have to win the North by battle if Jon doesn't join him, and guess what?  That is exactly what he is doing.

Without a son of Winterfell to stand beside me, I can only hope to win the north by battle.

He's not talking about the battle with the Boltons here. They are loyal to the Lannisters, so battle with the Boltons was always going to be inevitable for Stannis, and having a son of Winterfell to stand beside him would not change that. What he means here is without Jon then he can't win the northern lords to his cause, and if he can't win the northern lords to his cause then he will have to defeat them in battle, which given the size of his army would be near impossible. This again underlines the value Stannis puts in Jon, and the Stark name in general, as a means of winning the north.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

As for winning the North, he has the Mormonts on his side, and most likely Glover, after his taking of Deepwood Motte.  Mors Umber is on his side, and it appears that Alys Karstark is, as well, given her assistance in exposing her uncle's treachery.  That's a good portion of the North.  If he can get the Manderlys on his side, he has essentially won.  Even if he can't, he is still in pretty good shape.

He has a common cause right now with the Mormonts, but he cant be confident they are on his side given that they did not pay him homage, in fact Lyanna Mormont told him the only king they recognize is the King in the North whose name is Stark.

The same can be said for the mountain clans, Stannis knows they are there for their precious Ned's little girl.

The Karstarks, the only house to pay him homage, (and Arnuf is not even Lord Karstark) were proven to be trecherous.

The Glovers will be grateful I'm sure but they have been loyal to the Starks for generations.

Mors Umber has a few green boys and greybeards. House Umber has not declared for Stannis.

He thinks Wyman Manderly beheaded Davos.

So, no, he's not in good shape at all. But he would be in a lot better shape if the son of Eddard Stark swore his sword to him and became his loyal Lord of Winterfell. It certainly couldn't hurt.

 

[three-eyed monkey]

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

I have his magic sword. Tell Melisandre. I believe this is a hint from Stannis to Mel that the letter is a lie because it clearly contradicts what she has seen in her flames.

"Melisandre swears that she has seen me in her flames, facing the dark with Lightbringer raised on high. Lightbringer!"

 

[Nevets]

5 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

He's not talking about the battle with the Boltons here. They are loyal to the Lannisters, so battle with the Boltons was always going to be inevitable for Stannis, and having a son of Winterfell to stand beside him would not change that. What he means here is without Jon then he can't win the northern lords to his cause, and if he can't win the northern lords to his cause then he will have to defeat them in battle, which given the size of his army would be near impossible. This again underlines the value Stannis puts in Jon, and the Stark name in general, as a means of winning the north.

Uh, no.  He means that, with Jon by his side, the Northern lords who haven't thrown in with Bolton will naturally join him.  This would include Mormont, Glover, Manderly, Umber, Karstark,, and maybe others.  The ones initially at Barrowton are either connected to Bolton through family ties, or are weakened by their lords and heirs deaths.  Without Jon, he will have to win by proving himself in battle against the Boltons.  Well, he has.

If he has to fight the Northerners as a whole, he is screwed, and he knows that much.  At worst, the main leaders will sit on the sidelines, which Stannis does not want, and why he wants Jon.  

[three-eyed monkey]

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

Uh, no.  He means that, with Jon by his side, the Northern lords who haven't thrown in with Bolton will naturally join him.  This would include Mormont, Glover, Manderly, Umber, Karstark,, and maybe others.  The ones initially at Barrowton are either connected to Bolton through family ties, or are weakened by their lords and heirs deaths. 

Stannis sent his Hand to treat with Manderly and thinks Wyman had him beheaded. so surely it would seem from Stannis point of view that they will not naturally join him.

The Umbers have men with Roose, as do most of the other northern houses.

 

3 hours ago, Nevets said:

Without Jon, he will have to win by proving himself in battle against the Boltons.  Well, he has.

Proving himself in battle against the Boltons does not mean the north will accept him. From the moment Stannis decided to go north he knew he would have to defeat the Boltons and their allies. There is no indication in the text that Stannis believes beating the Boltons will be enough to win their allies over. Stannis has said several times that he needs Jon for that.

 

3 hours ago, Nevets said:

If he has to fight the Northerners as a whole, he is screwed, and he knows that much.  At worst, the main leaders will sit on the sidelines, which Stannis does not want, and why he wants Jon.  

This is my point. Stannis has a clear motive for wanting Jon by his side. You began by saying he had no motive to want Jon as the north would fall into his lap if he won Winterfell. It seems you have begun to accept that Stannis has a motive to get Jon to his side.

[The Drunkard]

This is entirely overstating Jon's importance. Stannis initially offers him Winterfell as an easy way to win over the northern fence-sitters who haven't bent over for Roose. Jon declines. Stannis changes his focus and concludes that without Ned's son by his side, he needs to win his allies via battle. Hence the plan to humiliate Roose by sacking the Dreadfort, then to prove himself the north's saviour by defeating the ironborn, then to take Winterfell and save Ned's girl from Ramsay. 

He initially wanted Jon and was very insistent about it. Jon was equally insistent in his refusal. Stannis adjusted. That last part is being ignored. After driving out the ironborn and restoring Deepwood to the Glovers, rescuing 'Arya', smashing the Frey and Bolton armies and then conquering Winterfell he won't need Ned's bastard to win over the north, as he would have already proven himself its protector and the protector of the Stark memory. 

[three-eyed monkey]

2 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

This is entirely overstating Jon's importance. Stannis initially offers him Winterfell as an easy way to win over the northern fence-sitters who haven't bent over for Roose. Jon declines.

Then it is Stannis who is overstating Jon's importance because the quotes on the matter come from him. Stannis sees political value in Jon, that much is clear from the text.

2 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

Stannis changes his focus and concludes that without Ned's son by his side, he needs to win his allies via battle.

Stannis does not conclude at all, because after he says that he asks Jon to swear his sword to him and rise as lord of Winterfell once again.

2 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

Hence the plan to humiliate Roose by sacking the Dreadfort, then to prove himself the north's saviour by defeating the ironborn, then to take Winterfell and save Ned's girl from Ramsay. 

This is true, he is currently proceeding without Jon, what else should we expect him to do? But that does not change the fact that having Jon by his side would add greatly to his cause. So he still has a motive surrounding Jon.

And it must be noted that Stannis would have known that he needed to defeat the Boltons before he even landed at Eastwatch. He would also have known that once he defeats the Boltons he has to replace them with someone loyal to him and yet appealing to the northern lords at the same time. This is where Jon has greatest value to Stannis, especially as there is no other candidate apparent to Stannis, especially since Arnulf Karstark proved treacherous.

2 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

He initially wanted Jon and was very insistent about it. Jon was equally insistent in his refusal. Stannis adjusted. That last part is being ignored.

No it is not being ignored. I agree wholeheartedly that Stannis adjusted, I say so in the OP. You believe he has adjusted by giving up on getting Jon and moving ahead without him, which Stannis has no choice but do at this stage anyway. I'm saying I think Stannis is too stubborn to give up and instead adjusted his method of getting Jon.

2 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

After driving out the ironborn and restoring Deepwood to the Glovers, rescuing 'Arya', smashing the Frey and Bolton armies and then conquering Winterfell he won't need Ned's bastard to win over the north, as he would have already proven himself its protector and the protector of the Stark memory. 

While all that is advantageous to Stannis, having Jon would still be a significant boost to his chances of binding the north to his cause, and to say otherwise is to ignore everything in ADwD.

[three-eyed monkey]

On 11/29/2018 at 6:58 PM, three-eyed monkey said:

I think the letter is more likely sent from Winterfell after Stannis has taken the castle, which means that Mance may be in Stannis’ possession once again and may be involved somehow. Some of the language is reminiscent of Mance.

I would like to expand on this point.

Stannis and Mance: a case of strange bedfellows.

Although we were not privy to the meeting between Stannis and Mance, we can make some reasonable assumptions, based on the stated motives of each character, as to what they discussed and the resulting agreement.

Mance wanted to get the great host he had gathered past the Wall before the cold winds rise and the dead come walking. His initial plan was to draw defenders away from Castle Black with a feigned attack on the Shadow Tower while raiders climbed the Wall, attacked Castle Black from the south, and opened the gates. When this plan failed and Jon returned to Mance wearing black, Mance opted to try a bluff using the fabled “Horn of Joramun”.

He turned back to Jon. "Go back and tell them to open their gate and let us pass. If they do, I will give them the horn, and the Wall will stand until the end of days."

...

He touched the horn again. "If I sound the Horn of Winter, the Wall will fall. Or so the songs would have me believe. There are those among my people who want nothing more . . ."

"But once the Wall is fallen," Dalla said, "what will stop the Others?"

Leaving the Wall standing is clearly preferable considering what Mance knows is coming, and even if he had the real horn it is unlikely he would blow it. He has other options. Mance believes he could storm the Shadow Tower as he knows the approaches well. He says he could build rafts and send ten thousand men across the Bay of Seals to take Eastwatch form the south. Or he could simultaneously dig out the gates of several of the abandoned castles along the Wall, stretching the defenders thin until he breaks through. But these options come at a price Mance would rather not pay.

"Blood," said Mance Rayder. "I'd win in the end, yes, but you'd bleed me, and my people have bled enough."

And getting past the Wall is only half of the problem. If Mance succeeds and gets his people past the Wall he need consider what’s next?

“If we let your people pass, are you strong enough to make them keep the king's peace and obey the laws?"

"Whose laws? The laws of Winterfell and King's Landing?" Mance laughed. "When we want laws we'll make our own. You can keep your king's justice too, and your king's taxes. I'm offering you the horn, not our freedom. We will not kneel to you."

Mance is adamant that the freefolk will not kneel. Freedom is naturally a large part of the freefolks’ identity and culture, again a price Mance would rather not pay. In fact it’s a price Mance could never pay even if he wanted to, as each wildling is free to follow whomever they choose.

This raises the question of what Mance expected to happen if and when the freefolk entered the Seven Kingdoms? It is possible that he planned to carve out a piece of the kingdom for the freefolk by military conquest, but history tells that every king-beyond-the-wall who led a host south was stopped by the Watch or the Lord of Winterfell.

"Wildlings have invaded the realm before." Jon had heard the tales from Old Nan and Maester Luwin both, back at Winterfell. "Raymun Redbeard led them south in the time of my grandfather's grandfather, and before him there was a king named Bael the Bard."

"Aye, and long before them came the Horned Lord and the brother kings Gendel and Gorne, and in ancient days Joramun, who blew the Horn of Winter and woke giants from the earth. Each man of them broke his strength on the Wall, or was broken by the power of Winterfell on the far side.”

While it is a good time for Mance to strike, given that Watch is weak and the Starks have fallen and the north is in turmoil, it is only a matter of time before the northern lords reorganise again. And when they do the freefolk will be left fighting a war on two fronts, with the Others closing from the north and the northern lords from the south. It’s hardly a satisfactory solution, especially as the freefolk would bleed and Mance believes they have bled enough already.

Mance needs a political solution that will allow his people to live south of the Wall while maintaining their freedom and subsequently their cultural identity.

"Free folk don't follow names, or little cloth animals sewn on a tunic," the King-Beyond-the-Wall had told him. "They won't dance for coins, they don't care how you style yourself or what that chain of office means or who your grandsire was. They follow strength. They follow the man."

So when Mance talked with Stannis for hours he had two main objectives in mind, firstly getting his people south of the Wall and second, preserving their freedom. Of course Stannis also wanted the Wildlings south of the Wall, but on condition that they swore fealty to him, kept the king’s peace, and took the red god as their own, terms that gravely threaten the second of Mance’s objectives.

Your brothers will not like it, no more than your father's lords, but I mean to allow the wildlings through the Wall . . . those who will swear me their fealty, pledge to keep the king's peace and the king's laws, and take the Lord of Light as their god. Even the giants, if those great knees of theirs can bend. I will settle them on the Gift, once I have wrested it away from your new Lord Commander. When the cold winds rise, we shall live or die together. It is time we made alliance against our common foe." He looked at Jon. "Would you agree?"

The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Stannis sees the sense of an alliance even if he knows the Watch and northern lords won’t like it. In his eyes, however, he has to proceed to choose between defending the Wall against the Wildlings or with them, with the latter being the obvious preference, as long as they keep his peace. And Mance Rayder is essential to such an alliance.

“The only man who can bind them to your cause is Mance Rayder."

"I know that," Stannis said, unhappily.

Stannis holds both Mance’s life and his son in his hands, which is a very strong position from which to negotiate. Mance on the other hand has been defeated and captured, the horn he was using as a bluff has been seized, and he has little choice but to accept Stannis’ terms or be executed as an oath-breaker. His position is weak, yet not without hope. In Stannis, Mance is confronted with a king who sees the sense in an alliance with the Wildlings because he believes in their common enemy. If Mance had been defeated and captured in any other king, then it would have surely spelt his doom, but luckily for Mance, Stannis needs him. Unfortunately, the price demanded by Stannis is too high.

Stannis clearly planned to use Mance in a process of loyalty-by-proxy, which means keeping Mance loyal to him and trusting Mance to keep the wildlings loyal in turn. This is no different than how a king uses any lord throughout the Seven Kingdoms, and that is effectively what Mance would become in Stannis’ eyes, a new Lord of the Gift, ruling over the Wildling settlers on behalf of his king. If the Wildlings are to come into Stannis’ kingdom then it stands to reason that Stannis would want them subjected to the kingdom’s traditional feudal hierarchy. The creation of a new lordship on the Gift would be the smart move on Stannis behalf, especially as it does not require taking lands from any existing lords. Holding Mance’s son as a hostage, or possibly appointing him a ward of Winterfell, would be advantageous to this end as well. Marrying the wildling princess to the Lord of Winterfell would, from Stannis’ southron point of view, only further strengthen the bond.

Stannis’ terms are too much for Mance, but he is left with a simple choice between death or accepting those terms and living to fight another day. By virtue of the fact that Stannis spared Mance, we know that Mance must have compromised to the king’s satisfaction. But Qhorin Halfhand told us that Mance never learned to obey and that his knees do not bend easily. Mance’s personal objections aside, there is a political implication to kneeling as well. As Mance tells Jon:

“You don't become King-beyond-the-Wall because your father was. The free folk won't follow a name, and they don't care which brother was born first. They follow fighters.”

If Mance knelt to Stannis, then he would most likely lose support amongst the freefolk, who would clearly see him as a kneeler, not a fighter. This is where Mance catches another lucky break. Stannis, under pressure to execute the oath-breaking king-beyond-the-wall, solves this problem for him when he burns “Mance” for all the world to see. This means he was free to privately accept Stannis’ terms, swear an oath to the king, live, and not lose face. And if he needs to renege on the deal at a later date, then it’s not as if he is unaccustomed to breaking oaths. Faced with the choice of kneel or die, Mance did what he had to do.

“We all do what we have to do, Snow. Even kings."

So what did Stannis and Mance get from the discussions, bearing in mind the objectives of both men and the fact that Mance was spared? Stannis thinks he has gained a means of binding the Wildlings to his cause, even if the problem of Mance’s oath-breaking and calls for his execution still needs to be solved at some stage. Mance has secured a place south of the Wall for his people on the strength of his oath of loyalty to Stannis, and importantly he lives to break that oath should the opportunity arise. It may even be that Stannis, given his disadvantageous military position in his war for the Iron Throne, will die and negate the oath that way.

The fact is, while Stannis has proved useful to Mance, Mance doesn’t need Stannis. Especially when there are other political players and philosophies in play that would better suit his objectives. Stannis wants the wildlings to be kneelers in his realm, he consorts with a sorceress and purports to follow the red god, and he has a child with greyscale, none of which would appeal to the freefolk, no more than being ruled by the Iron Throne through their Bolton wardens would. An independent north under Robb Stark’s heir would be a far better proposition from Mance’s point of view. More so if Robb’s heir was someone Mance and the freefolk could respect, a fighter, someone who could unite the north and the freefolk in the wars to come.

So Mance donned Rattleshirt’s bones and bided his time until Melisandre eventually gifted him an opportunity. He travelled south through Umber lands and attached himself to the Bolton tail, just as he had with Robert a few years before. In Winterfell, Abel and his washerwomen murdered a number of serving men, something that is not productive in the rescue of Arya for it puts the Boltons on alert and works against a stealthy extraction of Ramsay’s bride. These killings demonstrate that Mance has an agenda in Winterfell that goes beyond the rescue of Arya. It’s clear he wants to destabilize the Boltons, but whether he acted in support of Stannis or another cause remains unclear. One of Mance’s washerwomen gave Theon a strong hint as to where her allegiance lies.

"Winter is coming …"

Rowan gave him a hard look. "You have no right to mouth Lord Eddard's words. Not you. Not ever. After what you did—"

It is questionable whether Mance knows that Rowan is a northerner, but regardless he would be well placed to understand there is a northern agenda working against the Boltons, and by extension the Iron Throne, and that is a cause he and his people could benefit from.

When last we saw Abel he was singing in the hall at Winterfell before the rescue commenced. What fate befell him is unclear. He may have been captured and caged as the Pink Letter suggests, or he may have escaped to hide in the crypts as many fans theorise. But unless he was killed off-screen, which is unlikely, he will be still alive when next we have a pov character in Winterfell.

This theory suggests that Stannis will win the battle of ice and take Winterfell before he sends the Pink Letter, and as mentioned in the op, that leaves room for Mance to be involved, regardless of whether Stannis finds him in a cage or in the crypts. Some of the similarities between the language in the letter and the language Mance uses have been well documented in various Mance theories so I won’t go into them here other to say that I find it suggestive of Mance being involved.

It remains to be seen where the balance of power lies within Winterfell when Stannis takes the castle, given that he is greatly outnumbered by northerners who have a different agenda to him, but when Stannis and Mance are reunited then they will again find themselves with a common interest, that being Jon, though for very different reasons. Stannis needs Jon to come to Winterfell, swear his sword, and help win the north to his cause. Mance would prefer Jon to come to Winterfell to be crowned king of an independent north by the northern lords, and become something Mance could never hope to be, a man both the north and the freefolk would choose to follow, which would be the best political solution Mance could hope to find in his bid to achieve his second objective. Of course, he would be sacrificing his own kingship, something he could not have realistically hoped to hold for long once he was south of the Wall anyway. Besides, Mance is of the freefolk and the freefolk are free to follow whom they choose. Even freefolk kings.

[Jon] "As you say, Your—Mance."

The king laughed. "Your Mance! Why not?”

[The Mother of The Others]

Has Stannis become okay with the north never kneeling to him?  Like, making nice with them, so he has no enemies at his back, but at the cost of letting the north go free again, cut loose from the "seven" kjngdoms of kneelers.  Then, he'd have happy wildlings, happy northmen, happy mance.   

 

The separate dream of mance rayder , the more expansive play, would be the obvious one explicit in his name all along, his mission the same as the great raider of the past who went to winterfell and stole successfully.   I think mance wants to be lord of winterfell so he can tell the northmen not to bother the wildlings.  And if the north is freed from the crown, mance could hold the job without kneeling.  But he needs his own loyal troops at winterfell to lock in his gains and make it a reality.  So, the letter.  Aimed at bringing Jon & Wildlings as his escort troop to winterfell.  Eh?  Eh?    Because stannis has that staunch nature suggesting he's not a letter writer, and ramsay loves being the calm and collected controller, suggesting the letter's lack of calm control wasn't him but a frame job.  Mance's character would write it, though.  Eh.  The writer of this thing changes with the tide.

[three-eyed monkey]

On 12/11/2018 at 12:21 AM, three-eyed monkey said:

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

I have his magic sword. Tell Melisandre. I believe this is a hint from Stannis to Mel that the letter is a lie because it clearly contradicts what she has seen in her flames.

"Melisandre swears that she has seen me in her flames, facing the dark with Lightbringer raised on high. Lightbringer!"

 

Just wanted to add another quote to support this point.

"Would you know if the king was dead?" Jon asked the red priestess.

"He is not dead. Stannis is the Lord's chosen, destined to lead the fight against the dark. I have seen it in the flames, read of it in ancient prophecy.

[The Mother of The Others]

But the letter isn't a lie, not in that case.  It's an accurate prediction of Stan's near future as foreseen by the man in the know, Stan.   If it's a secret message to Mel, the message basically consists of, "You were full of fiery crap!"   In which case he might as well have just told her that openly.

[kissdbyfire]

There are very few things in this series I’d be willing to bet money or booze on. Ramsay being the author of the PL is one such. 

And the only room I see for something dodgy going on is the letter was opened and read before it was handed to Jon. But the letter’s contents were not altered. In this scenario, the letter is opened and read, and the conspirators decide to act quickly, earlier than they expected. But that as far as it goes IMO.

[three-eyed monkey]

58 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

There are very few things in this series I’d be willing to bet money or booze on. Ramsay being the author of the PL is one such. 

And the only room I see for something dodgy going on is the letter was opened and read before it was handed to Jon. But the letter’s contents were not altered. In this scenario, the letter is opened and read, and the conspirators decide to act quickly, earlier than they expected. But that as far as it goes IMO.

So you would bet on Theon predicting exactly what Ramsay would say in a letter that was not yet written when he said to Stannis, "He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek." as opposed to Stannis simply quoting what Theon said to him.

This is why the bookies always win.

[kissdbyfire]

27 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

So you would bet on Theon predicting exactly what Ramsay would say in a letter that was not yet written when he said to Stannis, "He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek." as opposed to Stannis simply quoting what Theon said to him.

This is why the bookies always win.

In a nutshell, yeah. 

Actually, I’d be shocked if Theon didn’t know exactly what Ramsay would say...

[three-eyed monkey]

2 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

In a nutshell, yeah. 

Actually, I’d be shocked if Theon didn’t know exactly what Ramsay would say...

Then Theon's prediction that Ramsay will be coming with Hosteen Frey should also be correct, so how does that work given that the letter was sent from Winterfell? Does Ramsay defeat Stannis and return to write the letter?

[kissdbyfire]

6 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Then Theon's prediction that Ramsay will be coming with Hosteen Frey should also be correct, so how does that work given that the letter was sent from Winterfell? Does Ramsay defeat Stannis and return to write the letter?

There's a difference: 

Ramsay defeats Stannis, or Ramsay believes he has defeated Stannis.

[three-eyed monkey]

3 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

There's a difference: 

Ramsay defeats Stannis, or Ramsay believes he has defeated Stannis.

If Stannis sends a raven to Winterfell claiming a Bolton victory, then sure, Ramsay could believe Stannis was defeated, as long as Ramsay is in Winterfell when the raven arrives. But if Ramsay is present at the battle, as Theon thinks he will be, then this obviously doesn't work as Ramsay would know the result of the battle. And if Theon knows precisely what Ramsay would say, as you claim, then he should be able to predict what Ramsay will do.

"They will come for you, but separately. Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek."

The truth is it's far more likely that "I want my bride back. And I want my Reek." is simply Stannis quoting what Theon said to him.