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three-eyed monkey

The Stannis Plan and why he wrote the Pink Letter.

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My way of reading inbetween all the many lines in these books?    Stannis is indeed on the comeback trail. 

So much detail is being put into his decline...things wouldn't be dragging on like this if he were meant to fizzle.  It would have happened by now.   I think he's purging himself of fire and learning the ways of ice and finding a home his cold heart is in tune with.   

So many dick moves have been pulled by so many characters, the most fulfilling ending would feature Stannis enthroned and dealing out highly satisfying punishments to all these idjits.  It's a race, though, because Arya and Coldheart are trying to gank the entire list of offenders first, before Stannis can de-nut them.

Jon's death (his next one, after victory over Others) would boost Stan's chances if Jon's dying will was that Stannis inherit the north's backing.   The big push of support for Stannis could also happen when he shows bravery against the Others, augmented by Jon's knowhow and the ability to parlay with Others when Jon's Ice&Fire blood registers on the Others' radar as an ancient command to Do Not Slaughter: Opportunity Awaits Here.

Then, the continent goes Stannis.  Stan's agents Asha/Theon are installed in Iron Islands after or while Euron is busy betraying humanity; Sansa holds serve in the Vale; I've pencilled in Coldheart to do the real work of winning back the Riverlands once she's glimpsed by that scared- E- cat of a Frey at Riverrun but Vale troops could meet up with Stan's here to do the mop up; Dorne is going to freaking implode and Alleras will be their huge hero figure in the war whose words can then influence Dorne to side with the Stag who came to the South's rescue; The Citadel is going to get fucked up or give in to Daenerys, whose gains then go over to Stannis after her ruling chances are scuttled by betrayals / lies / abdication to fly north as part of Stan's Team Woke / whatever.   And the two Targs seem destined for ruin anyway, perhaps with Dany realizing late (like Stannis) that the realm needs her fighting the true enemy not fighting for a throne, but maybe with a field of fire that just turns people off;  Don't we kind of assume Gendry gets the Stormlands?  And if Arya lets Stannis live, Gendry should follow suit, since they'll be shacking up; what's left?  Cercei resolution?  Spin the roulette wheel for that one, as everybody wants a piece of her.

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20 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Maege definitely contacted Bear Island because Lyanna knows about Robb's will and the new King in the North whose name is STARK.

 

I don’t think it’s necessarily a certainty just b/c of what Lyanna said. 

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1 minute ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don’t think it’s necessarily a certainty just b/c of what Lyanna said. 

Not a certainty, true. But I do think it's likely that a number of houses that lost people in the Red Wedding have had discussions about Robb's will, so I guess I read that line as a hint in that direction.

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7 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Not a certainty, true. But I do think it's likely that a number of houses that lost people in the Red Wedding have had discussions about Robb's will, so I guess I read that line as a hint in that direction.

I agree it’s very likely. After all, we have a few characters who were present when Robb produced the document, and it's safe to assume they all signed. Mallister, the Greatjon, Maege, Glover, and Edmure. So there’s a bunch of people who know... 

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On 12/1/2018 at 10:52 PM, lalt said:

That said, I agree, this issue could be/is the reason as to why the conspircy inside CB takes place.

I'd say, even more so if Jon hasn't been yet declared a traitor. The conspirators may fear to be involved or held responsable if they don't do something vs Jon before the Crown officialy takes action against him.

 

This is still a work in process, but outlined here in this youtube video Daggers for Jon, we get into the myriad of (valid) reasons why his Night's Watch brothers feel the need to assassinate him, even without a letter sent from the crown declaring Lord Snow attainted by the Iron Throne

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15 hours ago, The Mother of The Others said:

My way of reading inbetween all the many lines in these books?    Stannis is indeed on the comeback trail. 

So much detail is being put into his decline...things wouldn't be dragging on like this if he were meant to fizzle.  It would have happened by now.   I think he's purging himself of fire and learning the ways of ice and finding a home his cold heart is in tune with.   

The first time reading the later part of ADwD i was thinking Stannis was completely fucked out there in the blizzards

 

with further analysis,  and as more time goes on, & more information comes in, the narrative of Stannis getting shafted in the snows & how he's doomed out there just feels like set-up for us to think he's down & out for the count.

 

it would be complete savagery for him to die at this point in the story. Let us all remember the journey of how he went from a rigid Kantian in mindset & practice to pragmatic utilitarian powerhouse in the span of 4 books

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3 hours ago, lrresistable said:

 

This is still a work in process, but outlined here in this youtube video Daggers for Jon, we get into the myriad of (valid) reasons why his Night's Watch brothers feel the need to assassinate him, even without a letter sent from the crown declaring Lord Snow attainted by the Iron Throne

I know about that video and beside that, I agree. Like I said (shortly because I felt I was going a little bit OT) there are hints/clues that the conspiracy at CB doesn't happen all of a sudden. That is why, to stay more on topic, I don't even think the PL played a part on that.

Directly I mean. Maybe the conspirators read it and that is why they "accelerated" their plan... Even tho, if their main goal was to avoid the espedition to Hardhome, the PL didn't change the context that much. Instead of going there, Jon was about to leave to Winterfell, but still he was about to leave CB and the expedition wasn't going to be postponed. So they had to act right then with or without the PL.

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The conspiracy against Jon was cooking for a while, that much is obvious. There are people who disagree with his election, there's his policy towards the Wildlings, his policy towards Stannis, and more. Bowen Marsh objects openly, It's also possible that Thorne is back at Castle Black, as we are sure to see him return at some stage. It is safe to assume, based on the quotes above, that the crown is putting pressure on Marsh too. I don't think Marsh necessarily wants to murder Jon at this stage but is definitely working towards removing him.

So the Pink Letter arrives, the conspirators read it and seal it again, transforming the button of pink wax into a smear. They, like a lot of readers, take the letter as genuinely from Ramsay and the contents to be true, so the Mance situation is added to Jon's mounting list of crimes. How Jon reacts is key now. The conspirators know Jon well enough to know he's not going to comply with the demands in the letter, but can't be sure what he will do. They go to the shield hall, hear what he has to say and then quickly leave knowing they do not have much time. If Jon rides out of Castle Black, to his death they would have to assume, then they will be viewed as having stood by and done nothing. They simply had to act immediately or lose the chance and risk been seen by the crown and Warden of the North as sympathetic towards Jon.

Edited by three-eyed monkey
grammar

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Stannis writing the letter is very plausible, in fact I would say probable, but I do not think this occured after the taking of Winterfell, I think he needs Jon to show up with Wildings to take Winterfell. 

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33 minutes ago, Chris Mormont said:

Stannis writing the letter is very plausible, in fact I would say probable, but I do not think this occured after the taking of Winterfell, I think he needs Jon to show up with Wildings to take Winterfell. 

The Wall is roughly 600 miles from Winterfell. Stannis does not have time to wait for any reinforcements or conduct a siege, the cold count is mounting every day. Waiting will cost him more men than Jon could bring. He also seems quite confident that he can win at the village and win at Winterfell, And, it's questionable if Stannis has a raven trained for Castle Black at the village. None are mentioned in the text that I can find.

The letter had to be written after Theon in the tower, given that Stannis uses some lines from Theon in the letter. We also know that the letter arrived at the Wall before Jeyne's company. Like Jon, Jeyne is a minimum of 10 days from the Wall, maybe twice that if the weather prevails. The village is 3 days from Winterfell, we are told. If Stannis wins the battle, advances to Winterfell and gains entry by trickery using Tybald's ravens, it could take 5 days, or maybe 7 if we take what the letter says. So if he does win he would be sitting in Winterfell in plenty of time to send a raven to reach Castle Black ahead of Jeyne.

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1 hour ago, Chris Mormont said:

Stannis writing the letter is very plausible, in fact I would say probable, but I do not think this occured after the taking of Winterfell, I think he needs Jon to show up with Wildings to take Winterfell. 

 

37 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

The Wall is roughly 600 miles from Winterfell. Stannis does not have time to wait for any reinforcements or conduct a siege, the cold count is mounting every day. Waiting will cost him more men than Jon could bring. He also seems quite confident that he can win at the village and win at Winterfell, And, it's questionable if Stannis has a raven trained for Castle Black at the village. None are mentioned in the text that I can find. 

The letter had to be written after Theon in the tower, given that Stannis uses some lines from Theon in the letter. We also know that the letter arrived at the Wall before Jeyne's company. Like Jon, Jeyne is a minimum of 10 days from the Wall, maybe twice that if the weather prevails. The village is 3 days from Winterfell, we are told. If Stannis wins the battle, advances to Winterfell and gains entry by trickery using Tybald's ravens, it could take 5 days, or maybe 7 if we take what the letter says. So if he does win he would be sitting in Winterfell in plenty of time to send a raven to reach Castle Black ahead of Jeyne.

Another important details that make it nearly impossible for stannis to write the letter.

How could stannis know about the wildling army? there wasn t enough time for anyone to know there is an army of wildlings on the Wall!

How could he know about mance? theon thinks he is abel… He would need to take winterfell...

If stannis doesn t know about the army why would jon go to winterfell? with what army? his black brothers? doesn t make any sense...

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17 minutes ago, divica said:

 

Another important details that make it nearly impossible for stannis to write the letter.

How could stannis know about the wildling army? there wasn t enough time for anyone to know there is an army of wildlings on the Wall!

How could he know about mance? theon thinks he is abel… He would need to take winterfell...

If stannis doesn t know about the army why would jon go to winterfell? with what army? his black brothers? doesn t make any sense...

Stannis does not know about the Wildling army. I don't see how that makes it impossible for him to write the letter. Stannis does not need Jon to bring an army. An army would not get there in time. Stannis sees Jon as a key piece to winning the north. Read the op.

I am proposing he did take Winterfell before sending the letter. Again, it's in the op.

Jon would go to Winterfell because he has no choice. It's that or wait for Ramsay to come to him. If Jon chooses the latter then Stannis ploy has failed but he is no worse off.

I think it makes a lot of sense.

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8 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Stannis does not know about the Wildling army. I don't see how that makes it impossible for him to write the letter. Stannis does not need Jon to bring an army. An army would not get there in time. Stannis sees Jon as a key piece to winning the north. Read the op.

I am proposing he did take Winterfell before sending the letter. Again, it's in the op.

Jon would go to Winterfell because he has no choice. It's that or wait for Ramsay to come to him. If Jon chooses the latter then Stannis ploy has failed but he is no worse off.

I think it makes a lot of sense.

And jon would go to winterfell why? 

From stannis pov he doesn t have an army so he can t attack winterfell.

Then, upon reading the letter jon would send farya, theon and stannis familly to essos or some far away place as far as possible.

Then the wildlings would become uncontrolable ( the few stannis knows about woudn t stay near castle black and wait for death and val would run away somewhere or they would want to try and save mance)

It creates chaos on the wall in a very difficult time and so puts his familly and jon in danger.

When jon learns the truth he would stop supporting stannis and go back to the wall.

What exactly does stannis or any ally gain with the lie? NOTHING

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9 minutes ago, divica said:

What exactly does stannis or any ally gain with the lie? NOTHING

Yeah, these arguments never made any sense to me whatosever. Jon's supposed to receive the letter, arrange an army, and show up just in the nick of time... approximately 1.5 months after the letter was sent, assuming there roads are clear of snow?

The letter's value is that it reveals to us some of the state of affairs since we last saw Winterfell, and (most importantly) that Ramsay has been misled by Stannis to some degree.

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15 minutes ago, divica said:

And jon would go to winterfell why?

"The Night's Watch takes no part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms," Jon reminded them when some semblance of quiet had returned. "It is not for us to oppose the Bastard of Bolton, to avenge Stannis Baratheon, to defend his widow and his daughter. This creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women has sworn to cut my heart out, and I mean to make him answer for those words … but I will not ask my brothers to forswear their vows.

"The Night's Watch will make for Hardhome. I ride to Winterfell alone, unless …" Jon paused. "… is there any man here who will come stand with me?"

The letter is designed to provoke Jon to go to Winterfell and you can't deny that worked. He was willing to go alone if he had too. Complying with the demands of the letter was never an option so he could go to Ramsay or wait for Ramsay to come to him, as the letter promised he would if Jon did not send the people as demanded. Stannis has seen enough of Jon to know which way he was likely to choose from those options.

21 minutes ago, divica said:

From stannis pov he doesn t have an army so he can t attack winterfell.

I told you, this is irrelevant. Even if he did have an army he's not going to get there in time. It's 600 miles away and the weather is bad.

 

23 minutes ago, divica said:

Then, upon reading the letter jon would send farya, theon and stannis familly to essos or some far away place as far as possible.

Jon doesnt have farya, who he would know is Jeyne if he did, or Theon. So what if he sends Stannis family away, it would only be temporary. No loss to Stannis if he is to gain Jon.

 

27 minutes ago, divica said:

Then the wildlings would become uncontrolable ( the few stannis knows about woudn t stay near castle black and wait for death and val would run away somewhere or they would want to try and save mance)

It creates chaos on the wall in a very difficult time and so puts his familly and jon in danger.

The same danger they are in if Stannis can't win the north.

 

27 minutes ago, divica said:

When jon learns the truth he would stop supporting stannis and go back to the wall.

Who would tell Jon the truth? Not Stannis. If Ramsay is dead by the time Jon gets there then who's to say he didn't write it before he died.

30 minutes ago, divica said:

What exactly does stannis or any ally gain with the lie? NOTHING

I refer you to the op.

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6 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

"The Night's Watch takes no part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms," Jon reminded them when some semblance of quiet had returned. "It is not for us to oppose the Bastard of Bolton, to avenge Stannis Baratheon, to defend his widow and his daughter. This creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women has sworn to cut my heart out, and I mean to make him answer for those words … but I will not ask my brothers to forswear their vows.

"The Night's Watch will make for Hardhome. I ride to Winterfell alone, unless …" Jon paused. "… is there any man here who will come stand with me?"

The letter is designed to provoke Jon to go to Winterfell and you can't deny that worked. He was willing to go alone if he had too. Complying with the demands of the letter was never an option so he could go to Ramsay or wait for Ramsay to come to him, as the letter promised he would if Jon did not send the people as demanded. Stannis has seen enough of Jon to know which way he was likely to choose from those options.

 

That was a speach to rally support behind him. If he didn t have an army to attack winterfell it is obvious he wouldn t go to winterfell alone…. Ramsay doesn t even want him! Why would he leave castle black?

8 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I told you, this is irrelevant. Even if he did have an army he's not going to get there in time. It's 600 miles away and the weather is bad.

In time for what? what are you talking about? The point of the army is to give jon a reason to leave castle black and seek retribution from ramsay because he threatned his life. Why do you think jon would go to winterfell?

11 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Jon doesnt have farya, who he would know is Jeyne if he did, or Theon. So what if he sends Stannis family away, it would only be temporary. No loss to Stannis if he is to gain Jon.

what? whoever sent the letter thinks farya is at the Wall… And wether it is jeyne or arya jon would send them away to protect them from ramsay…

And how does he gain jon? How does the letter make him renounce his vows?

14 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

The same danger they are in if Stannis can't win the north.

 

Are you saying stannis is ok with the NW revolting and trying to capture his familly to deliver them to ramsay in order to lie to jon? Because it is a likely scenario after they know about the letter… And jon has zero resons to leave castle balck...

I really don t understand what you think stannis has to gain from sending that letter if jon doesn t have an army to attack winterfell… Because jon woudn t even have a reason to leve CB...

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29 minutes ago, divica said:

Then, upon reading the letter jon would send farya, theon and stannis familly to essos or some far away place as far as possible.

This is one of the biggest problems I have with Stannis writing it.  It makes the likelihood of his family leaving the Wall quite high.  Either they leave for their own safety, or they leave because, with Jon leaving in disgrace, the remaining NW evicts them.  This is unlikely to be in Stannis's interests. especially if he has taken Winterfell.  If he hasn't he is probably sunk anyway.

 

9 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

The letter is designed to provoke Jon to go to Winterfell and you can't deny that worked. He was willing to go alone if he had too. Complying with the demands of the letter was never an option so he could go to Ramsay or wait for Ramsay to come to him, as the letter promised he would if Jon did not send the people as demanded. Stannis has seen enough of Jon to know which way he was likely to choose from those options.

Jon could just as easily set up a defensive perimeter 50 miles or so out, or fortify CB.  (While it's not designed to withstand an army, an expeditionary force might be another matter.)  He could also send out parties to search for Arya.

11 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Jon doesnt have farya, who he would know is Jeyne if he did, or Theon. So what if he sends Stannis family away, it would only be temporary. No loss to Stannis if he is to gain Jon.

If he ships them off to Essos, it's going to be a lot longer than temporary; probably effectively permanent.  And why mention Arya at all.  If he thinks she is still at Winterfell, it makes him even more likely he will want to go there, instead of potentially spending time and resources looking for her.

16 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

The same danger they are in if Stannis can't win the north.

Not really.  If Jon is in charge, they are a lot safer than if he isn't in charge.   And, at worst, the Northerners are going to remain neutral.  If it's a choice between Stannis or Bolton, it's pretty clear they would go with Stannis.  No way will they join Bolton if there is any alternative available.

18 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Who would tell Jon the truth? Not Stannis. If Ramsay is dead by the time Jon gets there then who's to say he didn't write it before he died.

We the readers would find out.  Given that Stannis is not a POV somebody else would have to know.  And as Doran Martell put it so nicely, "somebody always talks".

 

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Several good arguments supporting Ramsay as the author. As I’ve said, I do beloeve Ramsay wrote it. And the mystery(ies) is(are) in its contents: which of Ramsay’s claims are true, and which aren’t. 

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57 minutes ago, Ran said:

The letter's value is that it reveals to us some of the state of affairs since we last saw Winterfell, and (most importantly) that Ramsay has been misled by Stannis to some degree.

I dunna actually understand what you are saying. I can be right dense.

What is the state of affairs in WF?  How has Ramsey been mislead?

Leaving the preview Theon chapter aside. Theon  & Jeyne escape WF in DwD chapter 51. Jon receives the bastard letter in DwD 69.

 

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9 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Several good arguments supporting Ramsay as the author. As I’ve said, I do beloeve Ramsay wrote it. And the mystery(ies) is(are) in its contents: which of Ramsay’s claims are true, and which aren’t. 

I also think Ramsey wrote it. Also, I think Ramsey believes what he wrote was true, but parts of it are not, specifically Stannis being dead. I'm hoping Ramsey is on his way to Castle Black, with a host of his own men, leaving Roose to take on Stannis and all the enemies within Winterfell.

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