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three-eyed monkey

The Stannis Plan and why he wrote the Pink Letter.

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36 minutes ago, Ran said:

Yeah, these arguments never made any sense to me whatosever. Jon's supposed to receive the letter, arrange an army, and show up just in the nick of time... approximately 1.5 months after the letter was sent, assuming there roads are clear of snow?

The letter's value is that it reveals to us some of the state of affairs since we last saw Winterfell, and (most importantly) that Ramsay has been misled by Stannis to some degree.

Ran the man, always an honor.

I think you are misreading my argument.  I never said Jon needs to arrange an army or show up in the nick of time for anything.

When Stannis decided to go north he knew there were a number of things he needed to accomplish. Save the North from Wildlings and Ironborn. Defeat the Boltons. Win the North to his cause. After that he can push south.

Stannis repeatedly states that Jon is, in his eyes, the key to binding the North to his cause.

He defeated the Wildlings, the Ironborn from Deepwood Motte, and he clearly believes he can beat Ramsay and take Winterfell. He is  planning long term as we see with Massey and the sellswords. The only part of the puzzle he's missing is Jon as Lord of Winterfell.

Jon refused on the basis of his vows.

Stannis designed the letter to get Jon to break his vows and come to Winterfell, which it almost did do until the daggers intervened.

If Jon eventually arrived at Winterfell and found it in Stannis hands with Ramsay dead, and not knowing Stannis wrote the letter, he would be an oathbreaker and subject to the law same as Garth in AGoT. Stannis could then offer him a way out of his predicament. Kneel and swear his bastard sword to Stannis and rise again, pardoned, legitimized, and Lord of Winterfell. A much better option than death.

The letter does reveal the state of Winterfell since last we saw it. Stannis has taken the castle.

 

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7 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

What is the state of affairs in WF? 

Mance & the spearwives have been exposed. Maybe even [some were] captured. 

7 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

How has Ramsey been mislead?

He thinks Stannis is dead, and that he’s won the battle. 

Only my 2p worth of course. 

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5 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

What is the state of affairs in WF?  How has Ramsey been mislead?

Leaving the preview Theon chapter aside. Theon  & Jeyne escape WF in DwD chapter 51. Jon receives the bastard letter in DwD 69.

Using Tybald's ravens, Stannis is going to send word to Winterfell that the Freys have defeated him, most probably so that he can gain enterance to the castle disguised as returning Freys. Some people think Ramsay wrote the letter after receiving this false report, but Ramsay is far more likely to be following behind the Frey's and not be in Winterfell to receive or send any ravens anyway.

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5 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Mance & the spearwives have been exposed. Maybe even [some were] captured. 

He thinks Stannis is dead, and that he’s won the battle. 

Only my 2p worth of course. 

Basically, in the aftermath of the Theon & Jeyne escape, Mance & the surviving spearwives were apprehended.

Ramsey thinks Stannis is dead why?

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4 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Using Tybald's ravens, Stannis is going to send word to Winterfell that the Freys have defeated him, most probably so that he can gain enterance to the castle disguised as returning Freys.

I have already said that. Thanks.

Edit: I may have said it in a different thread.

Edited by Clegane'sPup

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7 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Using Tybald's ravens, Stannis is going to send word to Winterfell that the Freys have defeated him, most probably so that he can gain enterance to the castle disguised as returning Freys. Some people think Ramsay wrote the letter after receiving this false report, but Ramsay is far more likely to be following behind the Frey's and not be in Winterfell to receive or send any ravens anyway.

 

3 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I have already said that. Thanks.

You seem awfully confident that the Boltons, of all people, are going to let in a bunch of guys they don't recognize, just  because they claim to be allies.  False flag maneuvers have been used by the Boltons before, I expect they will be on the lookout.  

If they do get in, it will be unarmed and guarded, until properly vouched for, which since they're fake, they won't be

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1 minute ago, Nevets said:

 

You seem awfully confident that the Boltons, of all people, are going to let in a bunch of guys they don't recognize, just  because they claim to be allies.  False flag maneuvers have been used by the Boltons before, I expect they will be on the lookout.  

If they do get in, it will be unarmed and guarded, until properly vouched for, which since they're fake, they won't be

I am not confident of nuttin'.

What I was talking bout was the ravens. Specifically the two raven's Stannis  has in his possession.

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9 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Ran the man, always an honor.

I think you are misreading my argument.  I never said Jon needs to arrange an army or show up in the nick of time for anything.

When Stannis decided to go north he knew there were a number of things he needed to accomplish. Save the North from Wildlings and Ironborn. Defeat the Boltons. Win the North to his cause. After that he can push south.

Stannis repeatedly states that Jon is, in his eyes, the key to binding the North to his cause.

He defeated the Wildlings, the Ironborn from Deepwood Motte, and he clearly believes he can beat Ramsay and take Winterfell. He is  planning long term as we see with Massey and the sellswords. The only part of the puzzle he's missing is Jon as Lord of Winterfell.

If Stannis defeats the Boltons, who are despised by most if not all northerners, he can find someone else to appoint WotN. The northerners don’t love him, but they may learn to respect him. We learn that after he takes DM more and more join his army every day... There’s also he Rickon/Davos factor, that may play into it all at some point. There are quite a few things that could happen. 

9 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Jon refused on the basis of his vows.

I disagree. Ultimately, Jon declined Stannis offer because he felt he’d be betraying the OG, his family, and the North in general. 

Remember, Slynt, ?Thorne, and the rest of those asswipes were looking for a way to off Jon. While Jon ponders Stannis’ offer, he thinks about the NW and his vows, but that alone is not motivation enough. Only when he thinks about the rest does he make up his mind.

 

You can’t be the Lord of Winterfell, you’re bastard-born, he heard Robb say again. And the stone kings were growling at him with granite tongues. You do not belong here. This is not your place. When Jon closed his eyes he saw the heart tree, with its pale limbs, red leaves, and solemn face. The weirwood was the heart of Winterfell, Lord Eddard always said . . . but to save the castle Jon would have to tear that heart up by its ancient roots, and feed it to the red woman’s hungry fire god. I have no right, he thought. Winterfell belongs to the old gods.

<snip>

Ygritte wanted me to be a wildling. Stannis wants me to be the Lord of Winterfell. But what do I want? The sun crept down the sky to dip behind the Wall where it curved through the western hills. Jon watched as that towering expanse of ice took on the reds and pinks of sunset. Would I sooner be hanged for a turncloak by Lord Janos, or forswear my vows, marry Val, and become the Lord of Winterfell? It seemed an easy choice when he thought of it in those terms . . . though if Ygritte had still been alive, it might have been even easier. Val was a stranger to him. She was not hard on the eyes, certainly, and she had been sister to Mance Rayder’s queen, but still . . .

I would need to steal her if I wanted her love, but she might give me children. I might someday hold a son of my own blood in my arms. A son was something Jon Snow had never dared dream of, since he decided to live his life on the Wall. I could name him Robb. Val would want to keep her sister’s son, but we could foster him at Winterfell, and Gilly’s boy as well. Sam would never need to tell his lie. We’d find a place for Gilly too, and Sam could come visit her once a year or so. Mance’s son and Craster’s would grow up brothers, as I once did with Robb.

He wanted it, Jon knew then. He wanted it as much as he had ever wanted anything. I have always wanted it, he thought, guiltily. May the gods forgive me. It was a hunger inside him, sharp as a dragonglass blade. A hunger . . . he could feel it. It was food he needed, prey, a red deer that stank of fear or a great elk proud and defiant. He needed to kill and fill his belly with fresh meat and hot dark blood. His mouth began to water with the thought.

It was a long moment before he understood what was happening. When he did, he bolted to his feet. “Ghost?” He turned toward the wood, and there he came, padding silently out of the green dusk, the breath coming warm and white from his open jaws. “Ghost!” he shouted, and the direwolf broke into a run. He was leaner than he had been, but bigger as well, and the only sound he made was the soft crunch of dead leaves beneath his paws. When he reached Jon he leapt, and they wrestled amidst brown grass and long shadows as the stars came out above them. “Gods, wolf, where have you been?” Jon said when Ghost stopped worrying at his forearm. “I thought you’d died on me, like Robb and Ygritte and all the rest. I’ve had no sense of you, not since I climbed the Wall, not even in dreams.” The direwolf had no answer, but he licked Jon’s face with a tongue like a wet rasp, and his eyes caught the last light and shone like two great red suns.

Red eyes, Jon realized, but not like Melisandre’s. He had a weirwood’s eyes. Red eyes, red mouth, white fur. Blood and bone, like a heart tree. He belongs to the old gods, this one. And he alone of all the direwolves was white. Six pups they’d found in the late summer snows, him and Robb; five that were grey and black and brown, for the five Starks, and one white, as white as Snow.

He had his answer then.

 

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1 hour ago, Ran said:

Yeah, these arguments never made any sense to me whatosever. Jon's supposed to receive the letter, arrange an army, and show up just in the nick of time... approximately 1.5 months after the letter was sent, assuming there roads are clear of snow?

The letter's value is that it reveals to us some of the state of affairs since we last saw Winterfell, and (most importantly) that Ramsay has been misled by Stannis to some degree.

Ramsay mustered most of his information from Mance. Without fake Arya and Stannis' daughter, he has no leverage and therefore no army.

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33 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Basically, in the aftermath of the Theon & Jeyne escape, Mance & the surviving spearwives were apprehended.

Ramsey thinks Stannis is dead why?

He says so in the PL He even says he has Stannis’ magic sword. Since I believe Ramsay wrote the letter but I don’t believe Stannis has been defeated, My assumption at this point is that for some reason Ramsay believes he has defeated Stannis.  

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10 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Since I believe Ramsay wrote the letter but I don’t believe Stannis has been defeated, My assumption at this point is that for some reason Ramsay believes he has defeated Stannis. 

I don't have a firm opinion on who wrote the letter.

There is no right or wrong with this topic.

If Ramsey did write the the letter I agree that Ramsey believes Stannis is dead.

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26 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

If Stannis defeats the Boltons, who are despised by most if not all northerners, he can find someone else to appoint WotN. The northerners don’t love him, but they may learn to respect him. We learn that after he takes DM more and more join his army every day... There’s also he Rickon/Davos factor, that may play into it all at some point. There are quite a few things that could happen. 

Yes, a lot of things could happen. And Stannis may have to account and plan for a variety of outcomes. He could win the respect of the north and as of the Theon chapter that is what he is faced with. But that does not change the fact that things would most likely go better for him if he had Jon where he wanted him. Stannis has plenty of motive to go after Jon. Motive that is stated clearly in the text.

The motives being put forward for Ramsay are all unsupported. Tell me one confirmed theory that has no text to support it.

And the letter itself is riddled with clues that it is not Ramsay, but people want to ignore that in favour of a sting of maybe this and maybe that explanations. If GRRM wanted us to know the letter was from Ramsay it would have cost him two more words, spiky hand, as set up twice previously by Asha and Jon.

 

And yes, Jon has other motives preventing him from accepting Winterfell, but he refuses Stannis citing his vows so from Stannis point of view that is the obstacle.

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3 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

The motives being put forward for Ramsay are all unsupported. Tell me one confirmed theory that has no text to support it.

The “motives” being put forth for all these possible authors are, at the mo, pure speculation and theorising and making assumptions. 

3 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

And the letter itself is riddled with clues that it is not Ramsay, but people want to ignore that in favour of a sting of maybe this and maybe that explanations.

 

That’s how you see these “clues”, and fair enough. But others see it differently. And the bottom line is, none of us can be sure either way. 

3 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

If GRRM wanted us to know the letter was from Ramsay it would have cost him two more words, spiky hand, as set up twice previously by Asha and Jon.

Oh well, now you’re assuming you know what effect Martin wanted to create w/ the PL. I disagree here, too. I think Martin achieved exactly what he wanted rot the PL. 

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5 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

The “motives” being put forth for all these possible authors are, at the mo, pure speculation and theorising and making assumptions. 

That's not true. I have quoted from the text, Stannis own words regarding his motive towards Jon.

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Just now, three-eyed monkey said:

That's not true. I have quoted from the text, Stannis own words regarding his motive towards Jon.

That was then, this is now. You may use those quotes you provided to back up your claim that Stannis wrote the letter, but they in no way, shape or form confirm anything. We will get to the bottom of it eventually. :)

 

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9 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

That’s how you see these “clues”, and fair enough. But others see it differently. And the bottom line is, none of us can be sure either way

GRRM could have added a piece of skin or blood ink or the spiky hand if it was Ramsay. Any or all of them would have suited the tone of the letter. It is worth wondering why he chose not to. Could it be he's using a classic mystery-writing technique that he used multiple times in the series?

 

8 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

That was then, this is now. You may use those quotes you provided to back up your claim that Stannis wrote the letter, but they in no way, shape or form confirm anything. We will get to the bottom of it eventually. :)

Still a lot stronger than theories that don't have any quotes to support them and in no way shape of form confirm anything.

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As far as any battle at Winterfell goes, Bolton is sending the Freys and Manderlys out to meet Stannis's host. We don't know how many Freys and Manderlys are left inside the gates, but Winterfell can be taken from the inside before Stannis shows up. 

If the snowmen that were built outside in the yard (Umber, Stout, Dustin, Manderly) are an indication of what's going on inside Winterfell, then those who would see a Stark back in Winterfell might outnumber Bolton loyalists in the end. 

Roose is not a trusting man by nature. He would want his Dreadfort men about him. By the time Stannis arrives, I think there's a good chance Winterfell will have fallen anyway (and Ramsay will be somewhere on the loose).

Edited by Alexis-something-Rose

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5 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

As far as any battle at Winterfell goes, Bolton is sending the Freys and Manderlys out to meet Stannis's host. We don't know how many Freys and Manderlys are left inside the gates, but Winterfell can be taken from the inside before Stannis shows up. 

If the snowmen that were built outside in the yard (Umber, Stout, Dustin, Manderly) are an indication of what's going on inside Winterfell, then those who would see a Stark back in Winterfell might outnumber Bolton loyalists in the end. 

Roose is not a trusting man by nature. He would want his Dreadfort men about him. By the time Stannis arrives, I think there's a good chance Winterfell will have fallen anyway (and Ramsay will be somewhere on the loose).

Yes it is very possible that the northern lords working to towards KitN will make their move inside the walls now that Roose has sent out some of his strength. Theon and fArya's escape will have stirred up an already volatile situation. Stannis does not know about Robb's will or the depth of supporter for that agenda, but he knows that defeating the Boltons is not enough. He needs to win the northern lords, and again that comes back to why he needs a son of Eddard Stark.

 

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Makes sense for Stannis to send out ravens to Winterfell stating he had died and theon is still alive going to the wall. He needs Theon and Farya otherwise he has no army.

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