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The Four Battles in TWoW


Euron III Greyjoy

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2 hours ago, King Aegon I Targaryen said:

As far as the Oldtown battle goes, I doubt it will actually be much of a "battle" so to speak, I'm picturing more of a one-sided slaughter, at least when it comes to the Hightower and Redwyne ships. Changing the subject ever so slightly, I don't know how it will happen, but I feel like the Valyrian Steel armor has to be used against the Others at some point, whether it be in TWoW or ADoS. 

The Battle of Fire looks interesting, most of the sample chapters that have been released take place just before, or just at the start of the battle. It looks like its going to be absolutely chaotic. 

I feel like I have mapped out the Crofters Village part of the Battle of Ice, I just have no idea what will happen after that. Maybe there will be some kind of mutiny inside the walls of Winterfell. Overall I feel like with the amount of content that GRRM has to cram into TWoW, this battle should be over relatively quickly. Without sounding like a hater, plot-wise I see no need for the Boltons and the Freys (at least the ones in the North) to live for much longer. 

I agree that the Battle of Storm's End is pretty meh. I personally wouldn't consider it to be a major battle, especially considering there are no characters I particularly care about on either side of that battle. 

I think the Vale will be the Kingmakers. They have been teased to be some of the best soldiers in Westeros, plus they still have their full fighting force thanks to staying out of the War of the Five Kings. 

Agreed re Valyrian Steel armor - it is the Chekhov’s gun of the Others fight at this point- until Lightbringer is found/made/revealed. 

I mentioned this in another post today but I came to the realization that Jeyne Poole May be the key to the North and Vale storylines coming together because she was essentially sold to the Lannister’s and Bolton’s by Littlefinger. She knows he is not good and if she knows he has Sansa in the Vale, that could be pivotal.

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Most looking forward to the Battle on the Ice, due to it probably deciding the fate of the North going forward and because will have some relatively unique tactics employed. After that, probably tied on the Battle of Fire and Euron's battle. I think most of the former has been released via different sample chapters and in special book editions, so it's really just the final moments and consequences of letting the Shavepate run Meereen that are in doubt. The latter should be interesting just to see what insane magic Euron uses. The Storm's End battle I think will be fairly ordinary. Mace does something dumb to throw away his numerical strength and JonCon takes advantage and gives Aegon a big PR victory.

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6 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

The Storm's End battle I think will be fairly ordinary. Mace does something dumb to throw away his numerical strength and JonCon takes advantage and gives Aegon a big PR victory.

Yeah, we keep hearing about Mace Tyrell's war blunders, but have yet to actually see one. It will be funny to see it from Connington's POV. 

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9 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Agreed re Valyrian Steel armor - it is the Chekhov’s gun of the Others fight at this point- until Lightbringer is found/made/revealed. 

I mentioned this in another post today but I came to the realization that Jeyne Poole May be the key to the North and Vale storylines coming together because she was essentially sold to the Lannister’s and Bolton’s by Littlefinger. She knows he is not good and if she knows he has Sansa in the Vale, that could be pivotal.

It would be really funny if Sam just absconds with the armor in the night. I cant see Euron dying in TWoW so I doubt the armor will be looted from his corpse. The only other option I see is if Euron himself fights against the Others, which really isn't out of the realm of possibility. 

Do you think Lightbringer is actually a sword then? 

Yeah, Jeyne Poole is the witness we all need. Everyone is focusing on the likes of Sansa, Varys, and Tyrion, but imagine if Littlefinger gets taken down by Jeyne Poole of all people. 

The North has lost so many men due to the Red Wedding, and then will probably loose more in the battle for Winterfell, so having the Knights of the Vale on their side would really help. 

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4 hours ago, King Aegon I Targaryen said:

It would be really funny if Sam just absconds with the armor in the night. I cant see Euron dying in TWoW so I doubt the armor will be looted from his corpse. The only other option I see is if Euron himself fights against the Others, which really isn't out of the realm of possibility. 

Do you think Lightbringer is actually a sword then? 

Yeah, Jeyne Poole is the witness we all need. Everyone is focusing on the likes of Sansa, Varys, and Tyrion, but imagine if Littlefinger gets taken down by Jeyne Poole of all people. 

The North has lost so many men due to the Red Wedding, and then will probably loose more in the battle for Winterfell, so having the Knights of the Vale on their side would really help. 

I am actually wondering if Euron will fight with the Others, but that’s another topic for another thread.

eh, I am unsure re Lightbringer. Could be a person or group as well.

I think if Jeyne knows that Sansa is in the vale and she can get that info to Jon or Stannis...

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1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I am actually wondering if Euron will fight with the Others, but that’s another topic for another thread.

eh, I am unsure re Lightbringer. Could be a person or group as well.

I think if Jeyne knows that Sansa is in the vale and she can get that info to Jon or Stannis...

If Euron does end up working with the Others, I doubt he will be able to keep the Valyrian Steel armor. Even if he is working with them, I cant see the Others feeling comfortable working with someone who is armored in material that can kill them. 

I'm not sure how Jeyne would know that Sansa is at the Vale. Maybe Sansa could get word of "Arya Stark" being married to Ramsay Bolton, and then look further into that. 

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2 hours ago, King Aegon I Targaryen said:

If Euron does end up working with the Others, I doubt he will be able to keep the Valyrian Steel armor. Even if he is working with them, I cant see the Others feeling comfortable working with someone who is armored in material that can kill them. 

I'm not sure how Jeyne would know that Sansa is at the Vale. Maybe Sansa could get word of "Arya Stark" being married to Ramsay Bolton, and then look further into that. 

Re: Euron - valid point about Others being Leery of armor

re: Jeyne- we don’t know a lot about what she knows or her time in Littlefingers brothel. Did she know that he left for the Vale? Did she know he took an interest in Sansa? She may put things together that others may miss. She knows Sana’a likes lemon cakes even!

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  • 2 weeks later...
9 hours ago, King Aegon I Targaryen said:

Really? Well I have to admit I wasn't expecting that to be anyone's answer.  xD

I know majority hate him and call him fake but he is hardly the worst character of the series and didn't do anything to deserve hate except to return Westeros and started his military campaign in one book unlike fandom favorite Daenerys spending five books in Essos. 

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7 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

I know majority hate him and call him fake but he is hardly the worst character of the series and didn't do anything to deserve hate except to return Westeros and started his military campaign in one book unlike fandom favorite Daenerys spending five books in Essos. 

I cant speak for everyone else, but the reason for that battle being the least interesting for me has absolutely nothing to do with disliking Aegon. That battle just seems so mundane compared to the other three. I feel like that battle will be covered in one chapter at most, whilst the others will have multiple chapters dedicated to them. 

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The Battle of Ice is probably the most intriguing in my opinion. I think Stannis still has a role to play in the Second Dance of the Dragons, so I think he wins. 

A little more than six months have passed since the red wedding by the time Stannis arrives at the crofter’s village near Winterfell. In the meantime, the Northmen with Roose are becoming concerned over Ramsay’s treatment of the presumed Arya. Since Barrowton, Roose has known that he cannot trust Cerwyn and Tallhart and, presumably, Hornwood. Roose knows that Wyman Manderly plots betrayal, and he suspects that Hothor Umber may stand with Wyman. Then, we see Hothor talking quietly with Harwood Stout, who is sworn to Dustin. The George gives us a hint as to the coup-plotting Wyman might be about with the snowy lords described by Reek to include Wyman Manderly, Harwood Stout, Barbrey Dustin, and Hother Umber. Perhaps most telling is that Mors has the future of House Umber outside the walls on Stannis's side (green boys), while Hothor has it's past inside with Bolton and Frey (greybeards). Barbrey has Reek take her into the crypts, presumably to look up upon the Stark tombs, but she takes note of the missing swords that Bran et al. took from the crypts. This suggests that Barbrey could have been looking to substantiate whether Wyman already has Rickon.

Arnolf arrives at the crofter’s village less than two weeks after Stannis. And that’s when the mysterious murders begin at Winterfell. Within a few days, Mors Umber arrives, and immediately after Mors sounds his horns, Abel’s washerwomen compel Theon to meet with Mance Rayder, who has been asking about the crypts. The tension between Frey and Mandery boils over the next day, and Theon and Jeyne escape. Three days later, Mors takes them, along with Tycho and Asha’s men from Deepwood Motte to Stannis’s camp. In the Theon spoiler chapter, we see Stannis learn of the Karstark plot, and we see that he intends to use the terrain to his advantage. We also see that he might be planning a ruse by faking his death.

Assuming Ramsay is indeed the author of the so called pink letter, we can assume that Ramsay believes that Stannis is dead, and that Stannis’s host has been defeated. Ramsay has recovered or has been given Lightbringer, and he has beheaded and flayed Abel’s washerwomen. He has stuck Mance in a crow cage, but he may have left Mance alive. He believes that Stannis has sent the presumed Arya and Reek to Castle Black, and he wants them returned. He must know that Jon will recognize Jeyne Pool, and Theon is still a potentially valuable hostage. But we know that Stannis had no intention of sending Theon anywhere, which further suggests that Stannis has fooled Ramsay. Ramsay demands Selyse, Shireen, and Melisandre, as well as Mance Rayder’s presumed son be turned over to him. Otherwise, he threatens to march on Castle Black. Ramsay has Jon in a tight spot since Jon has meddled in the affairs of the Seven Kingdoms, and Jon attempts to marshal the wildings, but of course, Brutus... err... Bowen Marsh has had enough.

These are the questions I will be looking to answer...

How did the ruse at the crofter’s village play out?

Has Ramsay killed Roose? Or is Roose still calling the shots?

Will the snowy lords and their snowy sentinels cast Ramsay down and allow Stannis to enter Winterfell?

Are Galbart, Maege, Howland, and Hallis on the other side of Winterfell with Davos and Rickon?

Will Selyse and Melisandre despair and burn Shireen?

How long will Jon Snow be out of commission?

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5 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

A little more than six months have passed since the red wedding by the time Stannis arrives at the crofter’s village near Winterfell

I think that is wrong. Just consider how long it took them to get to the crofter's village from Deepwood Motte.  We get a pretty good idea of the length of that journey from Asha's POV - just that is near or more than a month because the whole journey (from Deepwood to Winterfell) was supposed to take 15 days.  

 

8 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

These are the questions I will be looking to answer...

How did the ruse at the crofter’s village play out?

Has Ramsay killed Roose? Or is Roose still calling the shots?

Will the snowy lords and their snowy sentinels cast Ramsay down and allow Stannis to enter Winterfell?

Are Galbart, Maege, Howland, and Hallis on the other side of Winterfell with Davos and Rickon?

Will Selyse and Melisandre despair and burn Shireen?

How long will Jon Snow be out of commission?

These, however, are excellent questions.

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1 minute ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I think that is wrong. Just consider how long it took them to get to the crofter's village from Deepwood Motte.  We get a pretty good idea of the length of that journey from Asha's POV - just that is near or more than a month because the whole journey (from Deepwood to Winterfell) was supposed to take 15 days.  

I build up some assumptions here. I have discussed the timing and sequence of events in the North at great length beginning here. Here is a link to a very precise, estimated timeline and reasonable assumptions to make when calculating time. 

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On ‎12‎/‎8‎/‎2018 at 1:22 PM, King Aegon I Targaryen said:

Maybe Sansa could get word of "Arya Stark" being married to Ramsay Bolton, and then look further into that. 

The likelihood of this is extremely high.

 

My personal favorite is the Battle of Ice. It doesn't appear to be one big battle; it appears to be a series of battles big and small, fought on and off the battlefield that will end up comprising most of The Winds of Winter. Like, I can easily see Sansa, Littlefinger (if he isn't the one who wrote the Pink Letter) and the Knights of the Vale getting involved in the Battle of Ice. I can also see the rivermen also entering the fray late in the game...especially if Lady Stoneheart determines that the time to exact vengeance on the Boltons is now.

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It seems likely to me that Barristan will break the siege of Meereen and enter into an uneasy alliance with the Windblown, the Second Sons, and the Ironmen. Meanwhile, Daenerys will light her second fire, and she will finally set sail for Westeros, with a couple of stops on the way (Tyrion needs to go to Braavos, and Daenerys might be obligated to take Pentos).

The two big questions I have from the so-called battle of fire are: 1) Has Victarion asserted authority over the green one? 

Quote

"Captain." The voice belonged to Longwater Pyke. "The oarsmen await your pleasure."

Three of them, and strong ones. "Send them to my cabin. I'll want the priest as well."

The oarsmen were all big. One was a boy, one a brute, one a bastard’s bastard. The Boy had been rowing for less than a year, the Brute for twenty. They had names, but Victarion did not know them. One had come from Lamentation, one from Sparrow Hawk, one from Spider Kiss. He could not be expected to know the names of every thrall who had ever pulled an oar in the Iron Fleet.

“Show them the horn,” he commanded, when the three had been ushered into his cabin.

Moqorro brought it forth, and the dusky woman lifted up a lantern to give them all a look. In the shifting lantern light the hell-horn seemed to writhe and turn in the priest’s hands like a serpent fighting to escape. Moqorro was a man of monstrous size – big-bellied, broad-shouldered, towering – but even in his grasp the horn looked huge.

“My brother found this thing on Valyria,” Victarion told the thralls. “Think how big the dragon must’ve been to bear two of these upon his head. Bigger than Vhagar or Meraxes, bigger than Balerion the Black Dread.” He took the horn from Moqorro and ran his palm along its curves. “At the Kingsmoot on Old Wyk one of Euron’s mutes blew upon this horn. Some of you will remember. It was not a sound that any man who heard it will ever forget.”

“They say he died,” the Boy said, “him who blew the horn.”

“Aye. The horn was smoking after. The mute had blisters on his lips, and the bird inked across his chest was bleeding. He died the next day. When they cut him open his lungs were black.”

“The horn is cursed,” said the Bastard’s Bastard.

“A dragon’s horn from Valyria,” said Victarion. “Aye, it’s cursed. I never said it wasn’t.” He brushed his hand across one of the red gold bands and the ancient glyph seemed to sing beneath his fingertips. For half a heartbeat he wanted nothing so much as to sound the horn himself. Euron was a fool to give me this, it is a precious thing, and powerful. With this I’ll win the Seastone Chair, and then the Iron Throne. With this I’ll win the world.

“Claggorn blew the horn thrice and died for it. He was as big as any of you, and strong as me. So strong that he could twist a man’s head right off his shoulders with only his bare hands, and yet the horn killed him.”

“It will kill us too, then,” said the Boy.

Victarion did not oft forgive a thrall for talking out of turn, but the Boy was young, no more than twenty, and soon to die besides. He let it pass.

“The mute sounded the horn three times. You three will sound it only once. Might be you’ll die, might be you won’t. All men die. The Iron Fleet is sailing into battle. Many on this very ship will be dead before the sun goes down – stabbed or slashed, gutted, drowned, burned alive – only the Gods know which of us will still be here come the morrow. Sound the horn and live and I’ll make free men of you, one or two or all three. I’ll give you wives, a bit of land, a ship to sail, thralls of your own. Men will know your names.”

“Even you, Lord Captain?” asked the Bastard’s Bastard.

“Aye.”

“I’ll do it then.”

“And me,” said the Boy.

The Brute crossed his arms and nodded.

If it made the three feel braver to believe they had a choice, let them cling to that. Victarion cared little what they believed, they were only thralls.

“You will sail with me on Iron Victory,” he told them, “but you will not join the battle. Boy, you’re the youngest – you’ll sound the horn first. When the time comes you will blow it long and loud. They say you are strong. Blow the horn until you are too weak to stand, until the last bit of breath has been squeezed from you, until your lungs are burning. Let the freedmen hear you in Meereen, the slavers in Yunkai, the ghosts in Astapor. Let the monkeys shit themselves at the sound when it rolls across the Isle of Cedars. Then pass the horn along to the next man. Do you hear me? Do you know what to do?”

The Boy and the Bastard’s Bastard tugged their forelocks; the Brute might’ve done the same, but he was bald.

“You may touch the horn. Then go.”

They left him one by one. The three thralls, and then Moqorro. Victarion would not let him take the hell-horn.

“I will keep it here with me, until it is needed.”

“As you command. Would you have me bleed you?”

Victarion seized the dusky woman by the wrist and pulled her to him. “She will do it. Go pray to your red god. Light your fire, and tell me what you see.”

Moqorro’s dark eyes seemed to shine. “I see dragons.”

Victarion, Winds

Quote

 

The green beast was circling above the bay, banking and turning as longships and galleys clashed and burned below him...

...

The green still prowled, soaring in wide circles above the city and the bay on great green wings. 

 

Tyrion II, Winds

And 2) Will Tyrion help Brown Ben Plumm mount the white one? 

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