NFL 2018 V: The Packers Win With A Loss While The Cowboys Lose With A Win

[briantw]

35 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Have to hope they ignore him and just look at Jackson's record, Mayfield's hate for him and his performance on Hard Knocks.

Hue better hope he gets that Bengals job, because I'm not sure he'll get hired by anyone else after the shit he's pulled.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Sigh, what a painful season. So many ups and downs, so many bad breaks. And as I feared, that random Bills loss is what ended us. I can justify all the other ones and the tie, but that one will sting for a while.

The way we went out was awful too. It became abundantly clear early on that we couldn't move the ball on the Bears. And then they just kept punching us in the face. Every Vikings fan said at the start of the offseason that they had to fix that line, which they didn't do outside of drafting a project lineman in the second round (who actually is a decent RT, so there's that I guess), and in the line is what let us down. They better not make this mistake again.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 hours ago, Kalbear said:

And Wentz, sorta kinda. Same idea, even if it didn't work out. Basically you have two types of teams - the rookie QB + stars everywhere else (KC, Philly, Chicago, Houston, Dallas, Baltimore (kinda), Rams) and the teams with first ballot HoF QBs (Pats, Saints, Chargers, Seattle). 

 

And then you have the Colts.

A good QB on a rookie contract is the most valuable thing in all of sports. It's why teams should draft someone in the 3-5 round every few years, even if they have an established starter.

Also, congrats @Jace, Basilissa. I didn't know the ponies snuck in. 

[Jace, Extat]

18 hours ago, Kalbear said:

You...do know uphill is harder, right?

Isn't the 'it's all downhill from here' an evolution of the "shit rolls downhill" adage? Or am I mistaken?

It would not be the first time I've destroyed a nation from error.

 

[briantw]

1 minute ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Isn't the 'it's all downhill from here' an evolution of the "shit rolls downhill" adage? Or am I mistaken?

It would not be the first time I've destroyed a nation from error.

 

Granted, I was drunk when I posted that, but I think I meant to say something along the lines of upward rather than uphill.  

[Jace, Extat]

17 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

A good QB on a rookie contract is the most valuable thing in all of sports. It's why teams should draft someone in the 3-5 round every few years, even if they have an established starter.

Also, congrats @Jace, Basilissa. I didn't know the ponies snuck in. 

Good time to be a recovering Football Agnostic. I was wrong about a great many things regarding my Colts.

And I am sorry for Vike fans that I was right about Kirk. Seriously. That hurts.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Good time to be a recovering Football Agnostic. I was wrong about a great many things regarding my Colts.

And I am sorry for Vike fans that I was right about Kirk. Seriously. That hurts.

I think the key is, and call me a broken record, was that they invested in the line. What have a lot of the good teams lately had? A line that can keep their QB clean. The Colts did the smart thing and draft Nelson (told ya ) and protected Luck rather than expecting him to be a one man team like those stupid Packers do with Rodgers.

 

As far as Kirk goes, I don't think any smart fans were kidding themselves. You can win with Kirk, but not because of him and we saw that too many times. Still, I can justify the deal. We have a lot of cheap good players and the length of his deal is short. And I prefer my team going all in when they think they can win. We'll be really good next year too, so it's fine. 

[Rockroi]

So, another regular season is in the books; another year where a largely unimpressive Pats team is the #2 seed because most other teams in the NFL are mortally wounded by shear incompetence.  

The Pats beat a Varsity-level Jets team...okay, JUNIOR Varsity-level Jets team.  They gave up mid-way through Week 9.  I don;t even know if there is a joke there but that seems largely what happened. 

The Pats have all the tools necessary to lose in any stage of the playoffs at this point.  The have the D to lose in the Divisional round; the lack of talent on O to lose at the Conference game and the shear lack of overall ability to lose in the Superbowl.  I think Brady-Belichick have all the abilities to outlast any of the wildcard-week-end teams (except maybe SD), and will lose valiantly to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game.

In other news, the Ravens defeated the Browns so the Steelers don't make the playoffs. The only thing disappointing about the Steelers not being in the playoffs is that I don't get to watch the Steelers be humiliated in the playoffs.  More thoughts on terrible coaches later.  

Its the Saints Superbowl to lose and they look great.  I had hoped the Rams would make it work but I do not think that is going to happen.  

Chicago honestly played all-out so they could play a terrible Eagles team.  Impressive.  

Speaking of impressive, somehow, someway, Josh McDaniels is the front runner for the Packers head coaching job because apparently ever NFL owner has a picture of Bill Belichick hanging in a dungeon inscribed with the words "Thank you, sir; may I have another" written in Eric Mangini's blood.  How could they do that knowing what he did to the Colts?

Speaking of the Colts- fucking well-done in making it to the playoffs after a 1-5 start; outstanding work by Frank Reich and Luck.  Alos great work by the Jags for imploding after they beat the Pats.  Great job, fuckwads.  At least TJ Yeldon and Leonard Fornette did not work too hard.

 

Anywhoo... here is how mind-numbingly terrible the NFL coaching situation is.  

HERE ARE YOUR FIRED COACHES:

1. Hue Jackman.  No, wait, that's not his name.  Hue Jackman probably knows more about NFL pass rushes.  

1. Hue Fuckwad.  There, that's better.  Hue Jackson was such a terrible coach that the Bengals hired him.  He was then a prominent figure in their two losses to the Browns, his former team, and his desperate need to ingratiate himself to his former players (who hated him) at the expense of his current ones (who will hate him shortly).  I feel bad for Jackson.  Or Fuckwad.  Not sure  anymore.  

2. Mike McCarthy: Already fired after he failed to keep Aaron Rodgers' feelings from getting hurt.  Also failed to keep his arm, neck, shoulder, legs and head from getting hurt.  McCarthy lived off his rep for at least 4 seasons as the guy who was coach when the team got around to starting Rodgers.  And Rodgers may be on the back-nine of his career.  Great work in stringing along Favre for all that time.  THANK GOD I do not root for a team that kept around a Hall-of-Fame QB for too long at the expense of a young stud... whew!  

Any way: here who has been fired in the last 48 hours:

3. Todd Bowles:  In a statement, the Jets Front Office stated they had fired Todd Bowles for not having the ability to overcome the deficiencies caused by the Jets Front Office.

4. Dirk Koetter: What a useless slob.  Just take all that talent and flush down the Tampa Toilet.  A true "Tampa Two."   But what is 100% more hilarious about his firing, is that the Buccaneers released a statement saying that whomever they hire as head coach must be resigned to starting Winston at QB.  That is the cultural equivalent of buying a house that has a tenant, Charles Manson and then being told that if you buy the place you HAVE to take Manson.  Its a package deal- take this shitty team AND its completely self-absorbed QB!  Who probably sucks!  Great job! 

5. Vance Joseph: Clearly no longer having the time of his life.  I don't know; the Broncos are paying the tax on those years where they somehow had a great D and the highest paid QB almost ever.  That will continue to bite you in the ass in the form of Dead Money of which the Broncos have like $26 Mil for 2018.  By contrast most playoff teams have between 10 and 14 (though the Saints and Chiefs have slightly over 20 each).  I think Joseph was only a marginal coaching talent, but he did get his team to play against the Steelers, Seahawks and Chargers, three playoff teams.  Still probably a good firing.  

6. Adam Gase: This guy. Gase looks to me like the guy you give the job to because you are mildly afraid if you don't he'll beat you up.  Considering that fuck Tenanbaum was still there, I would not have put that past them.  What a piece of shit organization rotting from the inside out.  And not just because they beat the Pats on a fluke last-second play to ruin the Pats chances of a 1st round bye.  But fuck that too.  I also am not sure about Gase.  He's not a great coach, but what are they hoping for?  They are still stuck with Ryan Tanaehill and that terrible line. Everything about that team screams front office dysfunction and not coaching issues.   

7.  Steve Wilks: This one makes sense only if you forget that the team is the Arizona Cardinals, who blow.  The Cards' Dead Cap is GIGANTIC!  I thik its the highest in the league- its a shade under $40 mil!  To give you some idea of how jaw-droppingly incompetent that is, the team's ACTUAL salary is $100 mil.  So the Cards have dead money = to FORTY PERCENT of their roster!  The list includes (I swear): Sam Bradford    $10,937,500 (that’s SIX PERCENT OF THEIR ENTIRE CAP!!!); Tyrann Mathieu; $9,300,000 Carson Palmer $6,625,000; Jared Veldheer $3,250,000; Andre Smith $2,457,500 and     
Jamar Taylor $1,062,132. 

And somehow this is Wilks' fault?  After one season?  No seriously... how? 

8.     Marvin Lewis: Sometimes the most obvious things still surprise you.  The Cincinnati Bengals fired coach Marvin Lewis after 16 years; second longest only to Belichick among current coaches.  Lewis went 0-7 in the playoffs, the worst record by an NFL coach. The Bengals haven't won a playoff game since 1990.  2018 was his third straight losing season.  He is a walking ad for mercy killing.  Still... he DID lose the Red Rifle earlier in the season and may have been more competitive had Dalton been healthy.  And that way he could have grabbed for that always elusive, EIGHTH consecutive post-season loss!  Dare to dream, Cinci.  Dare to dream.  

So, apparently, while he was out the door, Lewis left some good stank on his departure by endorsing... Hue Jackson!!!!  No, not that one - the one who coached the Browns this season!  That fuckwad!  That's right, AFC North - we have come full circle - the Bengals just fired their coach to maybe pick up the former head coach of the Browns who was fired along with his O-coordinator who was the former head coach of the Steelers!  All we need is somebody to realize John Harbaugh is a fraud and we could wipe out that whole division!  

Which brings me to this...

How in God's name does that nitwit Mike Tomlin still have a job?  He lost that team in September, won games on the sheer talent of that lineup, and then lost utterly winable games just in time to watch the Browns cave in their only legit chance to make it to the playoffs.  And Tomlin has shown utterly no ability to keep a hold on that team or get guys to buy into any system.  And his still has that fat ball of bacon grease as QB.  

Also, Matt Praticia still has a job.  And that job is "Making Bill Belichick's legacy seem more unassailable."  

Both Grudens - still employed.  

Riverboat Ron, somehow, still employed.  

Eight men - 25% of the league - have been canned and I am not at all convinced that they got the right 8.  

Join me later when I try to lie to myself and make a compelling case that the Pats will win the Superbowl.  

[Jace, Extat]

On 12/31/2018 at 6:21 PM, Tywin et al. said:

I think the key is, and call me a broken record, was that they invested in the line. What have a lot of the good teams lately had? A line that can keep their QB clean. The Colts did the smart thing and draft Nelson (told ya ) and protected Luck rather than expecting him to be a one man team like those stupid Packers do with Rodgers.

 

As far as Kirk goes, I don't think any smart fans were kidding themselves. You can win with Kirk, but not because of him and we saw that too many times. Still, I can justify the deal. We have a lot of cheap good players and the length of his deal is short. And I prefer my team going all in when they think they can win. We'll be really good next year too, so it's fine. 

Might Case Keenum's mobility + Andrew Norwell have been preferable to indulging Kirk's messiah complex? 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

6 hours ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Might Case Keenum's mobility + Andrew Norwell have been preferable to indulging Kirk's messiah complex? 

 

Mobility certainly would have helped. It wasn’t until I just bought Madden a few weeks ago that I realized Kirk is the slowest man on Earth.

[Jace, Extat]

5 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Mobility certainly would have helped. It wasn’t until I just bought Madden a few weeks ago that I realized Kirk is the slowest man on Earth.

Mike Florio described his escape abilities as follows.

"If he scrambles to his right. It's going out of bounds. If he moves at all to his left he's getting sacked and you hope he doesn't break his ungangly ankles."

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 hours ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Mike Florio described his escape abilities as follows.

"If he scrambles to his right. It's going out of bounds. If he moves at all to his left he's getting sacked and you hope he doesn't break his ungangly ankles."

The lolz are real. He makes Brady look like he's wheels. 

[Maithanet]

I was looking over Football Outsiders end of year DVOA rankings and it confirmed what I suspected about this season:

1.  There are very few balanced teams amongst the playoff squads.  Really it divided between teams with great offenses and mediocre/bad defenses (KC, LAR, NE), teams with strong defense but shaky offense (CHI, BAL) and teams that are unexceptional at both (Houston, Philly, Dallas).  Only the Saints, Chargers and Colts () have both a defense and offense in the top 12.

2.  With so many one dimensional teams, this playoffs feels more wide open than most.  I feel like both the Chiefs and the Bears have teams that are playing well and could win the SB if things break their way.  But if the Bears fall behind 10-0 in the first half, they're probably finished.  And while the Chiefs scoff at a mere 10 point deficit, they have a ton of pressure on their offense to score a LOT of points to win, because a mere 27 point showing might doom them. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

The Saints were my preseason pick, and I’m sticking with them despite the fact they haven’t looked too good lately. It’s hard to trust any other team.

[Maithanet]

7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

The Saints were my preseason pick, and I’m sticking with them despite the fact they haven’t looked too good lately. It’s hard to trust any other team.

They haven't?  I mean, week 17 they rested everybody, so that's a nonfactor.  Beating the Steelers isn't easy, so I don't consider a 3 point win a problem.  I guess the showing @ Carolina and vs Dallas are a little worrisome, but the Saints look a lot more complete than most teams out there. 

In addition, analytics people say that "playing well at the end of the year" is not predictive, and my memory of previous SB runs backs that up.  You're better looking at the whole year, and the Saints have been really impressive.

[Ferrum Aeternum]

The Saints certainly seem to have the easiest path to the title. They're arguably the most "complete" team in all phases and are very tough to beat at home. Plus the Owl will be played inside a dome (one they're familiar with, at that), so I would also favor them to win it all. 

[Jace, Extat]

7 hours ago, Maithanet said:

.  Only the Saints, Chargers and Colts () have both a defense and offense in the top 12.

 

I find your lack of Colts knowledge disturbing...

The defense has played SHOCKINGLY well at times since about mid season. Their biggest issue is a tendency to get teams into 3rd and long but make so shitty mental mistake and allow a conversion.

However, I believe they've held opponents to 23 TD's out of 44 trips to the Red Zone, which is pretty good. Also. First time in 23 years that the Colts rushed for more yards than they allowed in a season.

 

ETA: They also didn't allow a 100 yard rusher all year despite playing some of the best in the league.

[DanteGabriel]

23 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

I find your lack of Colts knowledge disturbing...

The defense has played SHOCKINGLY well at times since about mid season. Their biggest issue is a tendency to get teams into 3rd and long but make so shitty mental mistake and allow a conversion.

However, I believe they've held opponents to 23 TD's out of 44 trips to the Red Zone, which is pretty good. Also. First time in 23 years that the Colts rushed for more yards than they allowed in a season.

 

ETA: They also didn't allow a 100 yard rusher all year despite playing some of the best in the league.

This McDaniels thing turned out to be a blessing in disguise for the Colts, though at least he picked you a decent DC.

[Jace, Extat]

5 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

This McDaniels thing turned out to be a blessing in disguise for the Colts, though at least he picked you a decent DC.

It's about time this franchise had some luck. Can't think of a more maligned fan base. 

For real though I'm almost totally on board with the Browns being a real team, coach pending of course. Baker is just delightful, and I actually clapped at the thought of him and Lamarr Jackson playing twice a year (1st vs 32nd).

I've always hated the Browns. Always. But the Browns were loyal to the collective losing. And that is true loyalty. But the Browns had an iron will! Undeviating. Strong. Should we not hold to our beliefs as we did then? No! Stronger still to forge our own winning beliefs. Which I have now... done. 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 hours ago, Maithanet said:

They haven't?  I mean, week 17 they rested everybody, so that's a nonfactor.  Beating the Steelers isn't easy, so I don't consider a 3 point win a problem.  I guess the showing @ Carolina and vs Dallas are a little worrisome, but the Saints look a lot more complete than most teams out there. 

In addition, analytics people say that "playing well at the end of the year" is not predictive, and my memory of previous SB runs backs that up.  You're better looking at the whole year, and the Saints have been really impressive.

Brees has not been playing well as of late. Over the course of the last four games, Brees has thrown 3 TDs and 3 Ints and is averaging just over 200 yards per game. During the previous eleven games he threw for 29 TDs and 2 Ints while averaging close to 300 yards per game. 2018 was Brees' third best year for average yards per attempted pass, but it's fallen off of a cliff over the course of the last five games. It was just below 9 YPA through ten games, but it.s been just over 6.5 during the last five games.

Perhaps it's correct to ignore how he's playing at the end of the year, but I've always worried about old QB's arms late in the season, and Brees has never been associate with having a really strong arm.