DMC Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Not sure what "acting" means. If it's anything like Pete Rouse ("interim"), he won't be there long. But I still pretty much called it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 3 hours ago, DMC said: Or, this: Perfect. Not my favorite movie, but it sure does have some amazing scenes in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 2 hours ago, Maithanet said: I dunno, I'm really doubtful about the Senate removing Trump, regardless of evidence. I think that our one and only shot is 23 months from now. I think it all depends on Mueller at this point. If his report is smoke, but no fire, Trump won't be removed from office, but if it is really damning and Trump's numbers drop, you never know what can happen. He Probably needs to poll below 70% with the base for Senators to begin jumping ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, DMC said: Not sure what "acting" means. If it's anything like Pete Rouse ("interim"), he won't be there long. But I still pretty much called it! It means no one wants the job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: I think it all depends on Mueller at this point. If his report is smoke, but no fire, Trump won't be removed from office, but if it is really damning and Trump's numbers drop, you never know what can happen. He Probably needs to poll below 70% with the base for Senators to begin jumping ship. I just don't see how that base does poll below 70 with Trump. The only way I can see it happening is if Fox News turns on him. As long as they stay, he'll be fine. I think that the Dems' best hope is to effectively impeach via 1-term candidacy, and put in as much ammunition to show how bad, corrupt and stupid he is via investigation and investigation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: It means no one wants the job. Maybe. It could also mean he does want the job but Trump still thinks he can find someone better after the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Mulvaney as cos -- he'll fit right in -- hoo effin' ray! Quote In April 2018, Mulvaney told a room of banking industry executives and lobbyists that as a Congressman he refused to take meetings with lobbyists unless they contributed to his congressional campaigns.[38]He said, "If you are a lobbyist who never gave us money, I did not talk to you. If you are a lobbyist who gave us money, I might talk to you."[38] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Kalbear said: I just don't see how that base does poll below 70 with Trump. The only way I can see it happening is if Fox News turns on him. As long as they stay, he'll be fine. Well, some Fox anchors are turning against him, or at the very least calling out his BS. That said, I wonder if conservatives have been moving away from Fox to more extreme sources (Info Wars, Breitbart, etc.). What's become unmistakably clear is that the Republican base wants their views to be reinforced, and if Fox starts getting really critical of Trump, they'll leave rather than change their minds. Quote I think that the Dems' best hope is to effectively impeach via 1-term candidacy, and put in as much ammunition to show how bad, corrupt and stupid he is via investigation and investigation. Like my friend said to me when I asked if I should buy a Xbox or PS4, "Why not both?" I think step one is getting his taxes though. That will show us just how corrupt he is and where many of the bodies are buried. If there's enough evidence to impeach him, do it, and if there isn't, discredit him to high hell and make him damaged goods for 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 That's the problem - evidence doesn't matter. It will continue to not matter. Unless you can find something like widespread manipulation of actual votes by Russian actors that Trump knew about and can show it, you're not going to have any compelling evidence that'll get Republicans to turn against him. I used to think that there was some amount of evidence that would matter. I simply don't any more. Nixon would have been fine if he had Fox News in his day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, DMC said: Maybe. It could also mean he does want the job but Trump still thinks he can find someone better after the holidays. But wouldn't he already have someone better lined up? I don't need to tell you that the CoS position is one of the most coveted positions in D.C., and holding the title etches your name into history. People should be lining up for it, not announcing en masse that they don't want the job. My best guess is that he's been turned down by several people, including everyone he wanted, so he's saving face by announcing someone to make it look like he didn't get rejected a ton of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Also, how can I not share this?: Quote George Papadopoulos, the former Trump campaign foreign policy aide who just completed a prison term for lying to the FBI, is planning a political comeback in California — where he says he intends to run for Congress. https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/14/george-papadopoulos-run-for-congress-1065721 2018 folks. 2018..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rippounet Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 37 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: I think it all depends on Mueller at this point. If his report is smoke, but no fire, Trump won't be removed from office, but if it is really damning and Trump's numbers drop, you never know what can happen. He Probably needs to poll below 70% with the base for Senators to begin jumping ship. As one of the articles that was posted here pointed out, the problem is that Trump has already pretty much gotten away with stuff that would have ended other people's careers, so the expectations for Mueller's report are so high that they will never be met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 33 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: My best guess is that he's been turned down by several people, including everyone he wanted, so he's saving face by announcing someone to make it look like he didn't get rejected a ton of times. Sure there's the futile effort to try to pretend a ton of people didn't turn him down, but I don't see what that has to do with naming Mulvaney "acting" CoS. Maybe that's how Mulvaney wants it - it's basically exactly what Ayers wanted. Just saying maybe instead it's Trump indicating he wants to keep his options open and he wants to take more time looking - the latter is why Obama named Rouse interim. Or, maybe Trump views it as some type of motivator for him to "earn" the job, fuck if I know. Speculating on Trump's process sucks and is pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gertrude Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Honestly, I think the thing that has the best chance to bring Trump's support down is if his tax returns show extensive fraud. Not just things that are 'smart business', but a history of out and out, incontrovertible fraud. It's not a high hope, but in talking with my dad (love him) he gets really riled up about the 47% who don't pay federal taxes. I can't logic with him on that, even when I pointed out that as a retiree, he doesn't pay federal taxes. Doesn't matter - it's not fair. Fair is a big trigger with him (again, I can't logic with him about fair/unfair.) He feels this is unfair. If Trump is proven to be a huge cheat and crook and not just a liar, I think there might be enough traction to get his numbers to drop. Maybe I'm just a hopeless optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 FEC sees uptick in ‘threatening’ filings https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-influence/2018/12/14/fec-sees-uptick-in-threatening-filings-456999 Quote FEC SEES UPTICK IN ‘THREATENING’ FILINGS: How vulgar or threatening a name can you give your PAC? That’s a question the Federal Election Commission is grappling with amid an uptick in PACs with overtly threatening names. On Wednesday, someone registered a new PAC with the FEC with a long, sexually explicit name that starts “I pegged Donalt [sic] Trump’s Ugly Old Bitch Ass …” It was the latest in a string of PACs with names that are the opposite of the bland PAC and super PAC names that Stephen Colbert satirized in 2011 by creating a super PAC called Americans for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow. Recent examples include the “Committee for the Murder of Joe Arpaio and chopping him up into little pieces” and “I am Gonna Shove Dynamite up Joe Arpiao’s [sic] Ass and Light the Fuse.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokisnow Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, Gertrude said: Honestly, I think the thing that has the best chance to bring Trump's support down is if his tax returns show extensive fraud. Not just things that are 'smart business', but a history of out and out, incontrovertible fraud. It's not a high hope, but in talking with my dad (love him) he gets really riled up about the 47% who don't pay federal taxes. I can't logic with him on that, even when I pointed out that as a retiree, he doesn't pay federal taxes. Doesn't matter - it's not fair. Fair is a big trigger with him (again, I can't logic with him about fair/unfair.) He feels this is unfair. If Trump is proven to be a huge cheat and crook and not just a liar, I think there might be enough traction to get his numbers to drop. Maybe I'm just a hopeless optimistic. You’re hopelessly optimistic, your dad will reason that trump did nothing wrong because the tax code is unfair. If trump broke the law it’s because the tax law is too big and complex, which is unfair to trump. If trump is proven to be a huge cheat and liar your dad will say one, all business leaders are like that anyway and two, Clinton did it more and worse (and since Clinton wasn’t a business leader it was actually always real crimes when the clintons did it) and neither Clinton has ever faced one iota of public scrutiny over anything they’ve ever done unlike poor trump who is scrutinized for everything with no protection like the clintons got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 I was afraid of this. One of my first impressions to the Trump win in the election was that this petty clan of grifters would loot and strip the White House on their way out. I was hoping that impression was wrong. I'm afraid we are not going to get the White House back. If any Trump member has access on the way out, every painting, every bit of copper wiring, every marble surface, will be stripped and monetized. This is not typical greed, any more than Walter White pumping out tens of millions of dollars worth of blue meth is typical. It's madness. Quote During the planning, Ivanka Trump, the president-elect’s eldest daughter and a senior executive with the Trump Organization, was involved in negotiating the price the hotel charged the 58th Presidential Inaugural Committee for venue rentals. A top inaugural planner emailed Ivanka and others at the company to “express my concern” that the hotel was overcharging for its event spaces, worrying of what would happen “when this is audited.” That’s from ProPublica and WNYC, which obtained emails between Ivanka, inaugural official Rick Gates (who’s since pleaded guilty to financial fraud and lying to investigators in another matter being investigated by Robert Mueller), and inaugural event planner Stephanie Winston Wolkoff. Wolkoff, a friend of Melania Trump’s, was flabbergasted at the price that the Trump hotel had quoted for potential use of its event space—and her previous experience includes events like the Met Gala mega-celebfest, so it’s not like she’s a Puritan when it comes to luxe party spending. The Wolkoff email that ProPublica obtained, moreover, was sent after Ivanka had already interceded to lower the Trump Org’s proposed price—and Wolkoff thought the new price was still twice as high as it should be. The Trump Organization Tried to Massively Overcharge Trump’s Own Inaugural Committee for Hotel Space, LOL https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/12/trump-hotel-overcharging-inaugural-committee.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gertrude Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 The self-dealing was evident and inevitable. I hardly count this as news at this point. And also, Clintons did it too, doncha know! I've already heard that come up (irregularities about white house gifts/personal gifts) (heavy sarcasm in comparing this to the Clintons, to clarify) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 I guess this is the time of year to reiterate long-held positions: The only way the GOP abandons Trump is if his approval drops into the 20s, and the only way that's possible is if there's a recession. Absolutely no one on earth knows what Trump's basement is in an economic downturn, but history and evidence suggests it could get pretty low - even Rasmussen right now only puts his strongly approve at 33%. The other thing that "ups" the probability of the GOP turning on him is privately they'd have no problem with it - if Mueller gives them justifiability and his approval gives them self-interest, it's a no brainer. Of course, the big but is if his approval will ever get that low. Is it likely? No. Is it somewhat likely? Maybe. Is it, like, a 5% possibility? Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokisnow Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 With a recession all but inevitable in the next three months, democrats better have their green new deal ready to put forth as a Keynesian solution and refuse the massive deregulation, corporate and wealthy tax cuts the senate and president and every fucking television channel (and every dc based writer) will be demanding as the only possible solution to the recession. *** also a Texas judge just invalidated the entirety of the ACA as unconstitutional since the basis of Roberts prior decision no longer exists. Looks like this one is heading back to the courts. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-15/obamacare-core-provisions-ruled-unconstitutional-by-judge?srnd=premium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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