How should Robb have gotten his sisters back?

[Adam Yozza]

1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

They can't kill the Nothern hostages, if they do Robb can kill 3x more hostages from the westerlands.

One sword would not change the war. Robb won't get his sisters back through negotiation without giving Jaime back. Sansa and Arya can be used in alliances, Jaime as long as he stays in KG cannot.

Willem losing his head is just consequence of the Lannisters falling to fulfil they part of the deal since they cannot give Arya.

What alliances? The Vale isn't interested, Dorne would be useless, the Iron Islands are your enemies and everyone else has already thrown in with another King. The only possible alliance is the Tyrell's post Renly but the best bet their is to cut out the Frey's and have Robb marry Margaery.

[LindsayLohan]

19 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

I don't see the Warden of the Southern Marches as a pass over of Edmure instead of a understanding that Blackfish is one of the most experienced military leaders in Westeroes , if there is anybody who can hold the Riverlands while Robb secures the North it's Blackfish. Making Blackfish Warden of the Southern Marches makes it very clear that he is in charge in the Riverlands and there will be no confusion on who's making the military decisions which is critical if they are to be fighting the Lannisters and Tyrells . .

How did that work out?

[Blackfish Tully]

3 hours ago, LindsayLohan said:

How did that work out?

since the Bolton's and the Frey's both betrayed Robb it never had a chance to work . But since there is a Frey army in the North that will never make it back South and the Golden Company and the Iron Born are both attacking the Lannister's and Tyrell's keeping them occupied and Blackfish is somewhere in the Riverlands planning his revenge I don't think it's going to "work out" very well for the Freys or Lannisters in the Riverlands. 

[Lion of the West]

EDITED: Removed so much rubbish.

[Angel Eyes]

On 12/7/2018 at 3:26 AM, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Do what Baelish did but sooner? Did Robb have no one try to infiltrate King's Landing to at least see what was going on in the city? I mean couldn't he have gotten some hedge knight from the Riverlands to pose as a fisherman/butcher/laborer to get the gossip that was floating around Flea Bottom? Perhaps if he had he'd have been able to send some men into the Capitol while Stannis was attacking to try and rescue Sansa and Arya.

That’s what I’m thinking of. Besides, Tyrion tried the same thing with freeing Jaime.

 

On 12/8/2018 at 4:20 PM, Arthur Peres said:

 

They can't kill the Nothern hostages, if they do Robb can kill 3x more hostages from the westerlands.

One sword would not change the war. Robb won't get his sisters back through negotiation without giving Jaime back. Sansa and Arya can be used in alliances, Jaime as long as he stays in KG cannot.

Willem losing his head is just consequence of the Lannisters falling to fulfil they part of the deal since they cannot give Arya.

I doubt that Robb would have the heart to execute a 12-year-old.

[Arthur Peres]

32 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

I doubt that Robb would have the heart to execute a 12-year-old.

You asked what if I was in the place of Robb, this is what I would do.

And Robb did had the will to kill them, as long as he find morally correct. He also wanted to behead Joffrey, that is also a 12 years old boy . 

“In battle I might have slain Tion and Willem myself, but this was no battle"

[Lion of the West]

Given Robb's background and grooming to become the Lord of Winterfell on his father's death I don't see why he would have a problem with executing hostages.

As for getting his sisters out I think that he would need to essentially contract an outsider, probably an Essosi, who could move into King's Landing without being very suspected and then break Sansa out of it or spread some gold around to make it an inside job. But given Robb's lack of Essosi contacts to find this individual to hire I don't see how he would have been able to get this plan going.

More reasonably would be to simply accept that Sansa is their prisoner and get her exchanged as part of the peace deal after having forced the Lannisters to yield to his victories on the field of battle. Now it never came to this but given Robb lack of contacts and that a rescue operation could go wrong as to get Sansa seriously hurt in the process the waiting game in regards to his sisters was probably Robb's best bet.

[John Suburbs]

On ‎12‎/‎8‎/‎2018 at 12:28 PM, Maia said:

I really never felt that it was, though. As you say rescuing Ned/ avenging Ned /carving out his kingdom were much higher priorities for him. Robb also never understood how Sansa, if he got her back,  could have been used to secure a valuable alliance - until penultimate Cat's chapter or so, IIRC, when it finally dawned on him.

That would have depended on the trade, though. It made good sense - and would have hopefully appeased Rickard Karstark, to demand his surviving son Harrion and Ser Wylis Manderly back as well as his sisters in exchange for Jaime. Nobody could then claim that Robb got the worst of that bargain!

Sorry, I'm not following you. You never felt that it (the honor of House Stark?) was a higher priority than Sansa, and yet rescuing/avenging Ned (aka, the honor of House Stark) were much higher priorities than Sansa? I think I'm missing something.

I doubt that even Sansa, Arya plus two vassal heirs is worth the kingslayer. Jaime is the single most precious thing to Tywin and Cersei in all the world, save perhaps Joffrey and Tommen. Having him as captive gives Robb far more leverage than Sansa, Arya, Harrion and Wylis give to his enemies. This is why he agrees to free all other hostages except Jaimie, and even then his offer to Cersei is so outrageous that she would most certainly refuse -- something that not even Lord Rickard seems to grasp.

 

[Arthur Peres]

8 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

 I doubt that even Sansa, Arya plus two vassal heirs is worth the kingslayer. Jaime is the single most precious thing to Tywin and Cersei in all the world, save perhaps Joffrey and Tommen. Having him as captive gives Robb far more leverage than Sansa, Arya, Harrion and Wylis give to his enemies. This is why he agrees to free all other hostages except Jaimie, and even then his offer to Cersei is so outrageous that she would most certainly refuse -- something that not even Lord Rickard seems to grasp.

 

 

Robb destroyed 2 out 3 Lannisters army, he captured Jaime, Willem, Martyn, Cleos and Tion (all close kin to Tywin) he freely raided the Westerlands, and captured several castles and still we don't see the Lannisters trying to grasp any deal with him. Even if he somehow beat Tywin and march on KL I doubt Cersei would let Sansa live.

I don't see Robb getting Sansa through pure force, he need to negotiate a deal and without leaving Jaime walk this is not viable. The way I see he losing less face with his bannerman is getting out they own kin, besides Wyllis and Harrion I don't remember any other notable hostage that was taken, but there were, he could also put them on the deal if you feel that is too little to gain, or get some coin out of it.

[Corvo the Crow]

Make contact with Mance Rayder, allow him to make camp beneath the Wall, give him and his folk the promise of aiding them get fertile and rich lands in Westerlands and Crownlands if they will fight with him against Lannisters and give him climbers(preferrably spearwives) to perform a well planned rescue operation.

[Angel Eyes]

2 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

You asked what if I was in the place of Robb, this is what I would do.

And Robb did had the will to kill them, as long as he find morally correct. He also wanted to behead Joffrey, that is also a 12 years old boy . 

“In battle I might have slain Tion and Willem myself, but this was no battle"

True.

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Robb destroyed 2 out 3 Lannisters army, he captured Jaime, Willem, Martyn, Cleos and Tion (all close kin to Tywin) he freely raided the Westerlands, and captured several castles and still we don't see the Lannisters trying to grasp any deal with him. Even if he somehow beat Tywin and march on KL I doubt Cersei would let Sansa live.

I don't see Robb getting Sansa through pure force, he need to negotiate a deal and without leaving Jaime walk this is not viable. The way I see he losing less face with his bannerman is getting out they own kin, besides Wyllis and Harrion I don't remember any other notable hostage that was taken, but there were, he could also put them on the deal if you feel that is too little to gain, or get some coin out of it.

Tyrion and Cersei sent terms back to Robb, which were just as outrageous as his terms to them, so at least the two sides were talking. Whether this would have resulted in a deal is anyone's guess, but this is how negotiations usually start out. Tyrion, in fact, sent private terms to Catelyn, and this did result in a deal, although Tyrion was out of power when it came time to fulfill his end of it, and both Robb and Cat were dead by then.

I suspect the reason Robb did not want to give up Jaime was that without him Robb would have little and less leverage to influence Lannister decision-making as he got closer and closer to King's Landing. Ultimately, I wonder if he was thinking that once all the Lannister forces in the field were defeated, Cersei might, just might, give up Joffrey and Sansa/Arya in exchange for Jaime, provided Robb would bend the knee to king Tommen (which would, of course, give Cersei an even longer regency).

But yes, at some point there would have been some formula of Sansa/Arya, Stark bannermen, money and/or some other goody in exchange for Jaime, but not a straight Jaime for Sansa/Arya trade. That would be a dishonorable bargain for House Stark, and as I said up top, Stark honor is more valuable than any individual Stark or Starks, particularly women.

 

[Arthur Peres]

23 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

 But yes, at some point there would have been some formula of Sansa/Arya, Stark bannermen, money and/or some other goody in exchange for Jaime, but not a straight Jaime for Sansa/Arya trade. That would be a dishonorable bargain for House Stark, and as I said up top, Stark honor is more valuable than any individual Stark or Starks, particularly women.

 

Agree, this is why I placed Harrion and Wyllis in the negotiation.

26 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Tyrion and Cersei sent terms back to Robb, which were just as outrageous as his terms to them, so at least the two sides were talking. Whether this would have resulted in a deal is anyone's guess, but this is how negotiations usually start out. Tyrion, in fact, sent private terms to Catelyn, and this did result in a deal, although Tyrion was out of power when it came time to fulfill his end of it, and both Robb and Cat were dead by then.

 

Tyrion"terms" were more a provocation than a terms, Cleos even feared what would happen to him once he returned, and Tyrion only intention was to infiltrate some people to rescue Jaime. He promised what he didn't have (arya) and broke faith again... this is the kind of think that should have resulted in execution of hostages.

Robb wasn't around in Riverrun at this point but if I was him and got news of it, Jaime would lose his thumbs and Cleos his head and send it to KL.

33 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I suspect the reason Robb did not want to give up Jaime was that without him Robb would have little and less leverage to influence Lannister decision-making as he got closer and closer to King's Landing. Ultimately, I wonder if he was thinking that once all the Lannister forces in the field were defeated, Cersei might, just might, give up Joffrey and Sansa/Arya in exchange for Jaime, provided Robb would bend the knee to king Tommen (which would, of course, give Cersei an even longer regency).

I don't see a logic behind it. Tywin went to war when is least favorite son was captured, I don't see he hanging his sword once his other son is taken hostage. Jaime won't give Robb peace, but his return might give him his sisters.

[John Suburbs]

4 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Tyrion"terms" were more a provocation than a terms, Cleos even feared what would happen to him once he returned, and Tyrion only intention was to infiltrate some people to rescue Jaime. He promised what he didn't have (arya) and broke faith again... this is the kind of think that should have resulted in execution of hostages.

No way. Once you've executed your hostage you give up any and all influence you might have had over your opponent. This is why the Frey's folly of threatening to execute Edmure was so laughably transparent. 

Yes, Tyrion's terms were absurd, but so were Robb's. This is how it usually goes: stake out extreme positions at first and then come to a gradual agreement. Note that Tyrion's plot to free Jaime was discovered, and only the rescuers were executed. Jaime was moved to a dank cell.

4 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

I don't see a logic behind it. Tywin went to war when is least favorite son was captured, I don't see he hanging his sword once his other son is taken hostage. Jaime won't give Robb peace, but his return might give him his sisters.

No, having a hostage -- even an important one like Jaime -- is not going to get someone like Tywin to leave the field. The battles will still be fought. My thought was that Robb may have been anticipating using Jaime as leverage after he defeats Tywin in the field and Cersei has no armies to defend her in KL. At that point, would she be willing to release Sansa and Arya (and any other hostages she might have) and give up Joffrey in exchange for Jaime and Robb's promise to bend the knee to Tommen? In this way, she still gets to hold on to her own power (for an even longer term than with Joffrey), her son still becomes king and she gets her Jaime back. It's all water under the bridge now, but I just suspect that was the reason why Robb was willing to give up everyone but Jaime -- that he expected him to be of value in the end game.

If he just wanted to get his sisters back, the Lanns would have jumped at that trade and laughed themselves to victory after all of Robb's bannermen abandoned him.

[Arthur Peres]

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

No way. Once you've executed your hostage you give up any and all influence you might have had over your opponent. This is why the Frey's folly of threatening to execute Edmure was so laughably transparent. 

 

Not when you have several other hostages, after the foil Tyrion tried he should be punished, since he is far away you take it on his kin, Robb at this point had Tion, Cleos, Willem and Jaime. In his place I would kill Cleos since he was involved, while keeping the other as hostages, and if he tried any of that again he would know that would cost the lifes of his kin.

You do not broke faith in a negotiation and walks off unpunished.

 

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 Yes, Tyrion's terms were absurd, but so were Robb's. This is how it usually goes: stake out extreme positions at first and then come to a gradual agreement. Note that Tyrion's plot to free Jaime was discovered, and only the rescuers were executed. Jaime was moved to a dank cell.

Robb's terms were harsh, but they weren't provocative, Northem and Riverlands independence, the freedom of his sisters and the rest of hostages, the bones of Eddard and Ice, in exchange for the hostages he had excluding Jaime and peace.

Tyrion's terms were that Robb bend his knee, swear his sword for Joffrey and throw himself in a war he had no reason to fight and he would gain nothing out of it other than maybe be allowed to keep his head above his neck.

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

No, having a hostage -- even an important one like Jaime -- is not going to get someone like Tywin to leave the field. The battles will still be fought.

 

agree.

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

My thought was that Robb may have been anticipating using Jaime as leverage after he defeats Tywin in the field and Cersei has no armies to defend her in KL.

This makes no sense, if Robb has the only army left in the field he can impose any deal he want, he can demand his sisters, Ice, Northem independence, the head of Joffrey, Tywin, Jaime, Cersei, Tyrion, the lands of the Westerlands, as well as a payment for the damage caused, that Mycella marries Hodor and etc.

What the Lannisters can do to negate him if they have no army?

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

At that point, would she be willing to release Sansa and Arya (and any other hostages she might have) and give up Joffrey in exchange for Jaime and Robb's promise to bend the knee to Tommen? In this way, she still gets to hold on to her own power (for an even longer term than with Joffrey), her son still becomes king and she gets her Jaime back. It's all water under the bridge now, but I just suspect that was the reason why Robb was willing to give up everyone but Jaime -- that he expected him to be of value in the end game

You are putting Robb bending the knee in the deal, this would never happen, my idea of negotiation was a trade of hostages, not a peace deal.

Cersei would also never trade the life of Joffrey for Jaime.

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 If he just wanted to get his sisters back, the Lanns would have jumped at that trade and laughed themselves to victory after all of Robb's bannermen abandoned him.

Robb's bannerman didn't jump on Catelyn when she freed Jaime in exchange of nothing. The Mormonts were even amicable to her at that moment, the only one angry and calling it treason was Karstark, and if he gets his son in the deal he might be more friendly towards it, Robb can even let him be the one beheading Willem when Arya doesn't show up.

[The Mother of The Others]

By paying the embroidery price.

[John Suburbs]

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Not when you have several other hostages, after the foil Tyrion tried he should be punished, since he is far away you take it on his kin, Robb at this point had Tion, Cleos, Willem and Jaime. In his place I would kill Cleos since he was involved, while keeping the other as hostages, and if he tried any of that again he would know that would cost the lifes of his kin.

You do not broke faith in a negotiation and walks off unpunished.

They don't have any other hostages as valuable as Jaime Lannister. Cleos had no knowledge of the plot to free Jaime and the northerners had no proof that he did. The honorable Robb Stark would not execute a man under those circumstances, even if the dishonorable Tyrion or Cersei would.

Tricks like this can go unpunished if the end-game circumstances warrant it; ie, Robb is not going to sacrifice his army and possibly his crown just because he doesn't get Tyrion's head for trying to spring Jaime months if not years earlier. The big picture is what's important, not the tit-for-tat details.

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Robb's terms were harsh, but they weren't provocative, Northem and Riverlands independence, the freedom of his sisters and the rest of hostages, the bones of Eddard and Ice, in exchange for the hostages he had excluding Jaime and peace.

Tyrion's terms were that Robb bend his knee, swear his sword for Joffrey and throw himself in a war he had no reason to fight and he would gain nothing out of it other than maybe be allowed to keep his head above his neck.

 

Not provocative? I'll just take half of your kingdom and keep your brother in chains forever, plus you give me more hostages to warrant your good behavior, and I'll let you live? We can see exactly how provocative these terms were when presented to Cersei, and I believe at one point Robb himself admits they were intended to be unacceptable.

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

This makes no sense, if Robb has the only army left in the field he can impose any deal he want, he can demand his sisters, Ice, Northem independence, the head of Joffrey, Tywin, Jaime, Cersei, Tyrion, the lands of the Westerlands, as well as a payment for the damage caused, that Mycella marries Hodor and etc.

What the Lannisters can do to negate him if they have no army?

You are putting Robb bending the knee in the deal, this would never happen, my idea of negotiation was a trade of hostages, not a peace deal.

Cersei would also never trade the life of Joffrey for Jaime.

Of course, I'm speculating wildly here. Even if the Lann armies are all defeated, though, Cersie is still ensconced in the capital with high walls around the city, the Red Keep and Maegor's Holdfast, plus thousands of her own men to guard them, plus Sansa. (At this point, they would have to come clean about Arya since there is no way she can be part of any final bargain). So Robb might be able to take the city, but at great cost to his army -- not to mention the life of his sister -- and there would still be Stannis and the Tyrells to worry about. So Cersei would still have some cards to play.

Yes, bending the knee might be asking too much. But consider also that Robb does not want the Iron Throne, just his northern kingdom. So mayhaps he would insist on Joffrey's head, Tommen on the throne (with Cersei as regent) and then two independent kingdoms in Westeros. This would not be trading Joffrey's life for Jaime's, but her own and both of her sons, and with this deal she still gets to wield power, which is all she truly loves, through her other son.

So, like I said, this is all water under the bridge, so it's no use debating over who would agree to what. The point, though, is that Jaime becomes a more valuable hostage as the end game draws near. In the end, he might be the only way to get his sister back, but only as part of a larger exchange that included multiple hostages on both sides. At this earlier stage in the war, a simple trade, Jaime for Sansa and/or Arya, is a non-starter from Robb's perspective.

14 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Robb's bannerman didn't jump on Catelyn when she freed Jaime in exchange of nothing. The Mormonts were even amicable to her at that moment, the only one angry and calling it treason was Karstark, and if he gets his son in the deal he might be more friendly towards it, Robb can even let him be the one beheading Willem when Arya doesn't show up.

Nobody was happy with it. Maege Mormont had the most sympathy for Cat, since she is a mother too, but it's a stretch to say that she approved. The Karstarks were most aggrieved, but it's not like any of the other lords defended her actions. At best, they ascribed it to a grieving mother's madness. Once word of her actions got out, she was immediately placed under arrest and confined to a tower. What should they have done? Behead her on the spot? She is mother to the king. It is up to the king to pass judgement.

[Arthur Peres]

35 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

They don't have any other hostages as valuable as Jaime Lannister. Cleos had no knowledge of the plot to free Jaime and the northerners had no proof that he did. The honorable Robb Stark would not execute a man under those circumstances, even if the dishonorable Tyrion or Cersei would.

He was the one that returned with the party that broke faith, it killed at least 2 guards of Edmure, and was a mess not to say unethical. Robb was raised in a culture that execute hostages, and Cleos was implicated in the foil, this is not just a punishment to a action, this is also a mensage.

I'm not saying to Robb dispose of Jaime, Cleos is the one of the chooping block, he would still keep his big hostage.

35 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Not provocative? I'll just take half of your kingdom and keep your brother in chains forever, plus you give me more hostages to warrant your good behavior, and I'll let you live? We can see exactly how provocative these terms were when presented to Cersei, and I believe at one point Robb himself admits they were intended to be unacceptable.

“First, the queen must release my sisters and provide them with transport by sea from King’s Landing to White Harbor. It is to be understood that Sansa’s betrothal to Joffrey Baratheon is at an end. When I receive word from my castellan that my sisters have returned unharmed to Winterfell, I will release the queen’s cousins, the squire Willem Lannister and your brother Tion Frey, and give them safe escort to Casterly Rock or wheresoever she desires them delivered.”

No provocations here, he is even retuning some hostages of his own.

“Secondly, my lord father’s bones will be returned to us, so he may rest beside his brother and sister in the crypts beneath Winterfell, as he would have wished. The remains of the men of his household guard who died in his service at King’s Landing must also be returned.”

“Third, my father’s greatsword Ice will be delivered to my hand, here at Riverrun.”

No provocations here neither.

“Fourth, the queen will command her father Lord Tywin to release those knights and lords bannermen of mine that he took captive in the battle on the Green Fork of the Trident. Once he does so, I shall release my own captives taken in the Whispering Wood and the Battle of the Camps, save Jaime Lannister alone, who will remain my hostage for his father’s good behavior.”

Jaime remaining a hostage is a provocation, but not a big one.

“Lastly, King Joffrey and the Queen Regent must renounce all claims to dominion over the north. Henceforth we are no part of their realm, but a free and independent kingdom, as of old. Our domain shall include all the Stark lands north of the Neck, and in addition the lands watered by the River Trident and its vassal streams, bounded by the Golden Tooth to the west and the Mountains of the Moon in the east.”

Is the reason he is fighting for, independance, so again not a provocation.

Now Tyrion terms

“Here are our terms,” said Tyrion. “Robb Stark must lay down his sword, swear fealty, and return to Winterfell. He must free my brother unharmed, and place his host under Jaime’s command, to march against the rebels Renly and Stannis Baratheon. Each of Stark’s bannermen must send us a son as hostage. A daughter will suffice where there is no son. They shall be treated gently and given high places here at court, so long as their fathers commit no new treasons.”

This is pure provocation, no one would let other house lead their own army, give the Lannisters even more hostages after they beheading Eddard. 

35 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Of course, I'm speculating wildly here. Even if the Lann armies are all defeated, though, Cersie is still ensconced in the capital with high walls around the city, the Red Keep and Maegor's Holdfast, plus thousands of her own men to guard them, plus Sansa. (At this point, they would have to come clean about Arya since there is no way she can be part of any final bargain). So Robb might be able to take the city, but at great cost to his army -- not to mention the life of his sister -- and there would still be Stannis and the Tyrells to worry about. So Cersei would still have some cards to play.

 

The golden cloack are not loyal to Lannisters, they fleed at first sign of problem when Stannis showed up. If Tywin is beat in battle Robb's reputation alone will make them turn the rest of the Lannisters in, if not, a promise of fortune and lands certanly will.

You are using Sansa's life as value here, this just make my point stronger  for why Robb should have rescued her early on.

35 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Nobody was happy with it. Maege Mormont had the most sympathy for Cat, since she is a mother too, but it's a stretch to say that she approved. The Karstarks were most aggrieved, but it's not like any of the other lords defended her actions. At best, they ascribed it to a grieving mother's madness. Once word of her actions got out, she was immediately placed under arrest and confined to a tower. What should they have done? Behead her on the spot? She is mother to the king. It is up to the king to pass judgement.

 

Robb getting their kin out and safe together with coin and his onw sister would give him enough room to keep control over the situation. He can give the Hornwood lands to Larence and please the glover, get Wyllis and Harrion for Karstark and Manderly and reward Bolton with coin and marry Sansa with Smalljon to please the Umbers.

I think you overrate the value of Jaime here, he is more valuable than Sansa and Arya, but not by that much of a margin.

[Geddus]

On 12/10/2018 at 7:44 PM, John Suburbs said:

I doubt that even Sansa, Arya plus two vassal heirs is worth the kingslayer. Jaime is the single most precious thing to Tywin and Cersei in all the world, save perhaps Joffrey and Tommen. Having him as captive gives Robb far more leverage than Sansa, Arya, Harrion and Wylis give to his enemies. 

Exactly. Tywin knows this too, that's why he's furious at Cersei: Ned was the only hostage that could have been exchanged for Jaime.

[John Suburbs]

5 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

He was the one that returned with the party that broke faith, it killed at least 2 guards of Edmure, and was a mess not to say unethical. Robb was raised in a culture that execute hostages, and Cleos was implicated in the foil, this is not just a punishment to a action, this is also a mensage.

I'm not saying to Robb dispose of Jaime, Cleos is the one of the chooping block, he would still keep his big hostage.

“First, the queen must release my sisters and provide them with transport by sea from King’s Landing to White Harbor. It is to be understood that Sansa’s betrothal to Joffrey Baratheon is at an end. When I receive word from my castellan that my sisters have returned unharmed to Winterfell, I will release the queen’s cousins, the squire Willem Lannister and your brother Tion Frey, and give them safe escort to Casterly Rock or wheresoever she desires them delivered.”

No provocations here, he is even retuning some hostages of his own.

“Secondly, my lord father’s bones will be returned to us, so he may rest beside his brother and sister in the crypts beneath Winterfell, as he would have wished. The remains of the men of his household guard who died in his service at King’s Landing must also be returned.”

“Third, my father’s greatsword Ice will be delivered to my hand, here at Riverrun.”

No provocations here neither.

“Fourth, the queen will command her father Lord Tywin to release those knights and lords bannermen of mine that he took captive in the battle on the Green Fork of the Trident. Once he does so, I shall release my own captives taken in the Whispering Wood and the Battle of the Camps, save Jaime Lannister alone, who will remain my hostage for his father’s good behavior.”

Jaime remaining a hostage is a provocation, but not a big one.

“Lastly, King Joffrey and the Queen Regent must renounce all claims to dominion over the north. Henceforth we are no part of their realm, but a free and independent kingdom, as of old. Our domain shall include all the Stark lands north of the Neck, and in addition the lands watered by the River Trident and its vassal streams, bounded by the Golden Tooth to the west and the Mountains of the Moon in the east.”

Is the reason he is fighting for, independance, so again not a provocation.

Now Tyrion terms

“Here are our terms,” said Tyrion. “Robb Stark must lay down his sword, swear fealty, and return to Winterfell. He must free my brother unharmed, and place his host under Jaime’s command, to march against the rebels Renly and Stannis Baratheon. Each of Stark’s bannermen must send us a son as hostage. A daughter will suffice where there is no son. They shall be treated gently and given high places here at court, so long as their fathers commit no new treasons.”

This is pure provocation, no one would let other house lead their own army, give the Lannisters even more hostages after they beheading Eddard. 

The golden cloack are not loyal to Lannisters, they fleed at first sign of problem when Stannis showed up. If Tywin is beat in battle Robb's reputation alone will make them turn the rest of the Lannisters in, if not, a promise of fortune and lands certanly will.

You are using Sansa's life as value here, this just make my point stronger  for why Robb should have rescued her early on.

 

Robb getting their kin out and safe together with coin and his onw sister would give him enough room to keep control over the situation. He can give the Hornwood lands to Larence and please the glover, get Wyllis and Harrion for Karstark and Manderly and reward Bolton with coin and marry Sansa with Smalljon to please the Umbers.

I think you overrate the value of Jaime here, he is more valuable than Sansa and Arya, but not by that much of a margin.

You forgot a few things:

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"The Queen Regent and her son shall make no claims to taxes, incomes, nor service from my people, and shall free my lords and nights from all oaths of fealty, vows, pledges, debts and oblications owed to the Iron Throne and the Houses Baratheon and Lannister. Additionally, the Lannisters shall deliver ten highborn hostages to be mutually agreed upon, as a pledge of peace. (snip) So long as the terms of this pact are abided with faithfully, I shall release two hostages every year and return them safely to their families."

 

Not provocative? Give me half your kingdom and 10 noble children whom I will execute at the first sign of trouble. Oh, and don't expect to get your son/brother back, ever. And also don't expect to ever see a dime that we borrowed, not from the crown nor any private dealings between houses. Now you're messing with not just Lannisters but Lannister gold.

Robb all but admits that his terms are not serious:

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"Cersei Lannister will never consent to trade your sisters for a pair of her cousins. It's her brother she'll want, as you know full well." She had told him as much before, but Catelyn was finding that kings do not listen half so attentively as sons.

"I can't release the Kingslayer, not even if I wanted to. My lords would never abide it."

And if you claim that Robb's demand for half the kingdom is not provocative because that is what he's fighting for, then neither is Tyrion's demand that Robb return to the king's peace and turn his army over to the defense of the crown, because that he is what he is fighting for.

So in the end, neither Robb nor Tyrion are negotiating in good faith here, and they both know it. But this is how it's done: stake out your extreme positions first and then slowly give up what is least important in order to get what you really want.

Remember, the original provocation in all of this, what kicked off the fighting, was not Ned's execution -- which was done after he confessed to treason and was legally sentenced by the king -- but Tyrion's kidnapping, which was highly illegal, completely unprovoked (and unjustified, as it turned out) and would have resulted in his death had he not been such a clever man.

The gold cloaks are as loyal as the tide of battle. They did not flee at the first sign of problems with Stannis; a portion of them left when king abandoned the battlements, taking it as a sign that defeat was imminent -- but many more stayed until the end. Fighting from atop the wall, you can expect them to weaken the northern army rather significantly before they are overrun. But Cersei also has her own personal guard in the RK, which, if King Aerys was any guide, should number several thousand. And we can also expect some Lannister soldiers to retreat to KL after their defeat in the field. Where else are they going to go?

Of course Sansa's life has value. I never said it didn't. Just that at this stage of the war, it is not as valuable as the Kingslayer's. By holding on to him now rather than simply trading him for Sansa and a few bannermen, he just might provide the key to a negotiated peace later, saving a lot of bloodshed on both sides.

Sorry, but Jaime is the single most valuable possession Robb has. Look at the way Tywin erupts when he learns "They have my son!" Look at how Jaime was his chief concern 15 years earlier during the Sack of KL. The whole future of his line rests on Jaime's shoulders, white cloak or no. Look at how both Tyrion and Cersei unite around the goal of returning Jaime safe and sound. Look at how Tyrion wails on Joffrey when he learns he abandoned Sansa during the bread riots. If Sansa Stark had come to harm, Jaime was as good as dead. Jaime is far and away their topmost concern throughout this entire period.