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How should Robb have gotten his sisters back?

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10 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

And if you claim that Robb's demand for half the kingdom is not provocative because that is what he's fighting for, then neither is Tyrion's demand that Robb return to the king's peace and turn his army over to the defense of the crown, because that he is what he is fighting for.

 

Tyrion demands that Robb bend the knew are fine and expected, the one where he demands that Robb give Jaime his army and let himself become a hostage at KL with several other nobles  after what happened to Eddard that is beyond provocative.

12 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but Jaime is the single most valuable possession Robb has. Look at the way Tywin erupts when he learns "They have my son!" Look at how Jaime was his chief concern 15 years earlier during the Sack of KL. The whole future of his line rests on Jaime's shoulders, white cloak or no. Look at how both Tyrion and Cersei unite around the goal of returning Jaime safe and sound. Look at how Tyrion wails on Joffrey when he learns he abandoned Sansa during the bread riots. If Sansa Stark had come to harm, Jaime was as good as dead. Jaime is far and away their topmost concern throughout this entire period.

How would you use Jaime in Robb's position then ?

For what I'm taking from you Jaime can't get him peace, not his sisters, no victory. He is just a trophy that can't be used until the moment you're winnig so big that he is irrelevant, or that you're losing so bad that your cause is lost.

20 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

 But Cersei also has her own personal guard in the RK, which, if King Aerys was any guide, should number several thousand. And we can also expect some Lannister soldiers to retreat to KL after their defeat in the field. Where else are they going to go?

 

Martyn is not very realistic when dealing with battles, the royal army under Rhaegar disapeared, Jaime's army ceased to exist,Stannis went from 20k+ to 1.500 after blackwater, Roose let 1/3 of his host be slaughter and is considered a good achivment. If we keep this as stardart the Lannister army is going to hell :).

The mercenaries already begun to switch sides, do you think a guy like Bronn wouldn't betray the Lannisters if Tywin is beaten and Robb is giving a castle and gold to the one the bring him the Queen's head?

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24 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Tyrion demands that Robb bend the knew are fine and expected, the one where he demands that Robb give Jaime his army and let himself become a hostage at KL with several other nobles  after what happened to Eddard that is beyond provocative.

How would you use Jaime in Robb's position then ?

For what I'm taking from you Jaime can't get him peace, not his sisters, no victory. He is just a trophy that can't be used until the moment you're winnig so big that he is irrelevant, or that you're losing so bad that your cause is lost.

Martyn is not very realistic when dealing with battles, the royal army under Rhaegar disapeared, Jaime's army ceased to exist,Stannis went from 20k+ to 1.500 after blackwater, Roose let 1/3 of his host be slaughter and is considered a good achivment. If we keep this as stardart the Lannister army is going to hell :).

The mercenaries already begun to switch sides, do you think a guy like Bronn wouldn't betray the Lannisters if Tywin is beaten and Robb is giving a castle and gold to the one the bring him the Queen's head?

I’m surprised by Martin regarding his battles; considering how much he likes to be realistic with everything else.

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20 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

I’m surprised by Martin regarding his battles; considering how much he likes to be realistic with everything else.

Would probably complicate too much the plot. Rodrik's army for example, if they could reform like a real army they would take back Winterfell the next day, kill Ramsey, capture Theon and the whole north plot we have today would go down.

 

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18 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Tyrion demands that Robb bend the knew are fine and expected, the one where he demands that Robb give Jaime his army and let himself become a hostage at KL with several other nobles  after what happened to Eddard that is beyond provocative.

How would you use Jaime in Robb's position then ?

For what I'm taking from you Jaime can't get him peace, not his sisters, no victory. He is just a trophy that can't be used until the moment you're winnig so big that he is irrelevant, or that you're losing so bad that your cause is lost.

Martyn is not very realistic when dealing with battles, the royal army under Rhaegar disapeared, Jaime's army ceased to exist,Stannis went from 20k+ to 1.500 after blackwater, Roose let 1/3 of his host be slaughter and is considered a good achivment. If we keep this as stardart the Lannister army is going to hell :).

The mercenaries already begun to switch sides, do you think a guy like Bronn wouldn't betray the Lannisters if Tywin is beaten and Robb is giving a castle and gold to the one the bring him the Queen's head?

Yes, the closer you get to the endgame, the more valuable Jaime becomes -- either to put an early end to the war if you are winning or a negotiated settlement if you are losing. Exactly how and for whom you would eventually release him depends on circumstances. One thing is certain: now is not the time, and not just for Sansa.

Rhaegar's army did not disappear. A good chunk of Aerys' forces in KL were the remnants of the royal army from the Trident. Most of Stannis' army was decimated in the surprise attack; only a few were able to clamber aboard the scattering of ships that lay outside of Tyrion's chain to get back to Saan's fleet. Roose's loss may very well have been intentional, but even if it wasn't, retreating with two-thirds of your army still intact is not bad.

Yes, sellswords are very untrustworthy. That is true for both sides. Cersei would still have plenty of forces to bleed Robb's army even if he is victorious and takes both the city and her head. It would be a pyrrhic victory at best because the Tyrell host is still out there. And even if he does not need Jaime at this point to secure his victory, it's still better to keep him than to throw him away on a trade that brings neither a tactical or strategic benefit.

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I agree that Jaime for Sansa is not a good trade. At this point, Robb should continue his campaign and invade the Westerlands, take Casterly Rock, and then settle for terms. With the Lannister keep in his control, a sizeable force, an intact Lannister granary, and a valuable hostage in Jaime, Robb should be sitting pretty. Don’t marry Jeyne Westerling and get murdered at a wedding, and you’re on track to get them back eventually, regardless of what you do strategically, granted you don’t lose any major battles. I also agree naming yourself King in the North was foolish, driving a wedge between Robb and Stannis. Shoulda, woulda, coulda kinda thing...Robb fucked up.

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On 12/13/2018 at 4:41 PM, John Suburbs said:

Yes, the closer you get to the endgame, the more valuable Jaime becomes -- either to put an early end to the war if you are winning or a negotiated settlement if you are losing. Exactly how and for whom you would eventually release him depends on circumstances. One thing is certain: now is not the time, and not just for Sansa.

Rhaegar's army did not disappear. A good chunk of Aerys' forces in KL were the remnants of the royal army from the Trident. Most of Stannis' army was decimated in the surprise attack; only a few were able to clamber aboard the scattering of ships that lay outside of Tyrion's chain to get back to Saan's fleet. Roose's loss may very well have been intentional, but even if it wasn't, retreating with two-thirds of your army still intact is not bad.

Yes, sellswords are very untrustworthy. That is true for both sides. Cersei would still have plenty of forces to bleed Robb's army even if he is victorious and takes both the city and her head. It would be a pyrrhic victory at best because the Tyrell host is still out there. And even if he does not need Jaime at this point to secure his victory, it's still better to keep him than to throw him away on a trade that brings neither a tactical or strategic benefit.

Let's agree to disagree then.

I belive that if you have a strong card you should use it, depending of how much gold he can get from the ramson he can gatter another army like the 20k Stannis is getting now, and get his sisters back.

Robb could use Jaime in several ways, but he never did, and lost him for free later on.

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56 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Let's agree to disagree then.

I belive that if you have a strong card you should use it, depending of how much gold he can get from the ramson he can gatter another army like the 20k Stannis is getting now, and get his sisters back.

Robb could use Jaime in several ways, but he never did, and lost him for free later on.

You don't want to bring your dragons out too early. Yes, Robb lost eventually, but if he had simply traded Jaime for Sansa or for gold at this point he probably would have lost it much sooner.

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On 12/14/2018 at 7:20 PM, John Suburbs said:

You don't want to bring your dragons out too early. Yes, Robb lost eventually, but if he had simply traded Jaime for Sansa or for gold at this point he probably would have lost it much sooner.

Just to not start another topic

How much coin do you think Robb could get from Jaime's Ramson and how much sellswords can he hire with this money?

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On 12/14/2018 at 4:20 PM, John Suburbs said:

You don't want to bring your dragons out too early. Yes, Robb lost eventually, but if he had simply traded Jaime for Sansa or for gold at this point he probably would have lost it much sooner.

Tywin would have known Jaime-for-Sansa to be a foolish trade, and he taught Tyrion the same thing.  Wars are not won with gold, and no amount of money or sellswords could replace the value held in Jaime's bondage.  Tywin looked down on the way the Free Cities used gold and sellswords (even as he bought the discount Brave Companions).  "When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire."  Later, when Tyrion was with JonCon on the river, he thinks about how Ilyrio relies too much on his economic influence in war planning: "Might be the cheesemonger has misjudged the situation. You can buy a man with gold, but only blood and steel will keep him true."

You can't put a dollar value on Jaime's blood.

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23 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Just to not start another topic

How much coin do you think Robb could get from Jaime's Ramson and how much sellswords can he hire with this money?

An inordinate sum for Sansa, and the same every year until Arya is returned  ;)

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Robb should have traded Jaime for his sister the second he got him. Sansas worth a thousand kingslayers. 

 

"I should have traded the Kingslayer for Sansa when you first urged it," Robb said as they walked the gallery. "If I'd offered to wed her to the Knight of Flowers, the Tyrells might be ours instead of Joffrey's. I should have thought of that."

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On ‎1‎/‎4‎/‎2019 at 11:34 PM, Arthur Peres said:

Just to not start another topic

How much coin do you think Robb could get from Jaime's Ramson and how much sellswords can he hire with this money?

I'm sure quite a bit. But his value as a strategic pawn in the end game of the rebellion would still be much greater. However much gold Robb gets from Tywin to buy sellswords, Tywin will always have more gold to buy them back.

18 hours ago, LindsayLohan said:

Tywin would have known Jaime-for-Sansa to be a foolish trade, and he taught Tyrion the same thing.  Wars are not won with gold, and no amount of money or sellswords could replace the value held in Jaime's bondage.  Tywin looked down on the way the Free Cities used gold and sellswords (even as he bought the discount Brave Companions).  "When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire."  Later, when Tyrion was with JonCon on the river, he thinks about how Ilyrio relies too much on his economic influence in war planning: "Might be the cheesemonger has misjudged the situation. You can buy a man with gold, but only blood and steel will keep him true."

You can't put a dollar value on Jaime's blood.

Exactly. Jaime is simply too valuable to either sell or trade at this point in the war, and his value only increases as Robb continues to rack up success in the field.

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23 hours ago, LindsayLohan said:

Tywin would have known Jaime-for-Sansa to be a foolish trade, and he taught Tyrion the same thing.  Wars are not won with gold, and no amount of money or sellswords could replace the value held in Jaime's bondage.  Tywin looked down on the way the Free Cities used gold and sellswords (even as he bought the discount Brave Companions).  "When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire."  Later, when Tyrion was with JonCon on the river, he thinks about how Ilyrio relies too much on his economic influence in war planning: "Might be the cheesemonger has misjudged the situation. You can buy a man with gold, but only blood and steel will keep him true."

 You can't put a dollar value on Jaime's blood.

Jaime for Sansa, Harrion and Wyllis + lot of gold is a bad trade?

I think you overestimate the value of Jaime. Robb cannot gain peace for Jaime, he cannot force Tywin to yield, Jaime cannot be married off to make a alliance for the Lannisters, he is not a great of commander, Tywin in Tyrions thoughts considered Jaime as good as dead.

"That was when he knew. You have given him up for lost, he thought. You bloody bastard, you think Jaime’s good as dead, so I’m all you have left. Tyrion wanted to slap him, to spit in his face, to draw his dagger and cut the heart out of him and see if it was made of old hard gold, the way the smallfolks said. Yet he sat there, silent and still."

The lords with Renly also though that Jaime could be executed, if he was so valuable they would know better.

“Jaime Lannister is held prisoner at Riverrun.”

“Still alive?” Lord Mathis Rowan seemed dismayed.

Bemused, Renly said, “It would seem the direwolf is gentler than the lion.” “Gentler than the Lannisters,” murmured Lady Oakheart with a bitter smile, “is drier than the sea.”

“I call it weak.” Lord Randyll Tarly had a short, bristly grey beard and a reputation for blunt speech

If Robb had pressed this exchange earlier he would be able to get more sellswords, his sisters, free northem hostages, he may not need to send Catelyn to Renly and if he send her she would be much better to negotiate with him, Renly only though about numbers, if Robb and his mercenaries could muster another 20k like Stannis did in Dance, he would have enough to match Renly and pressure a more favorable deal than what was offered to him (not that it matters he would be dead anyway)

He would be in much better shape than at the beggining of ACoK where he let is army be spread again, stayed in Riverrun for so long that his enemies though that he was afraid, and he got weaker by the day like Cleos pointed out.

“The boy sits idle at Riverrun,” Ser Cleos said. “I think he fears to face your father in the field. His strength grows less each day. The river lords have departed, each to defend his own lands.”

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Uh, medieval physics govern the breaking of these armies, right?  So they don't have modern discipline or see themselves as professional soldiers, they're just scared of disobeying their lord or getting strung up as a deserter.  But if their lord's forces just got fucked up and they were there to see it, they're in a good position to know their lord is no longer in a good position to punish desertion.  And the army dissolves as part of the traditions of old world ways?   Anyway that helps me to not notice the things you guys are noticing.   (Go Bears) (Go Eagles)

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16 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Jaime for Sansa, Harrion and Wyllis + lot of gold is a bad trade?

I think you overestimate the value of Jaime. Robb cannot gain peace for Jaime, he cannot force Tywin to yield, Jaime cannot be married off to make a alliance for the Lannisters, he is not a great of commander, Tywin in Tyrions thoughts considered Jaime as good as dead.

"That was when he knew. You have given him up for lost, he thought. You bloody bastard, you think Jaime’s good as dead, so I’m all you have left. Tyrion wanted to slap him, to spit in his face, to draw his dagger and cut the heart out of him and see if it was made of old hard gold, the way the smallfolks said. Yet he sat there, silent and still."

The lords with Renly also though that Jaime could be executed, if he was so valuable they would know better.

“Jaime Lannister is held prisoner at Riverrun.”

“Still alive?” Lord Mathis Rowan seemed dismayed.

Bemused, Renly said, “It would seem the direwolf is gentler than the lion.” “Gentler than the Lannisters,” murmured Lady Oakheart with a bitter smile, “is drier than the sea.”

“I call it weak.” Lord Randyll Tarly had a short, bristly grey beard and a reputation for blunt speech

If Robb had pressed this exchange earlier he would be able to get more sellswords, his sisters, free northem hostages, he may not need to send Catelyn to Renly and if he send her she would be much better to negotiate with him, Renly only though about numbers, if Robb and his mercenaries could muster another 20k like Stannis did in Dance, he would have enough to match Renly and pressure a more favorable deal than what was offered to him (not that it matters he would be dead anyway)

He would be in much better shape than at the beggining of ACoK where he let is army be spread again, stayed in Riverrun for so long that his enemies though that he was afraid, and he got weaker by the day like Cleos pointed out.

“The boy sits idle at Riverrun,” Ser Cleos said. “I think he fears to face your father in the field. His strength grows less each day. The river lords have departed, each to defend his own lands.”

None of these assumptions are necessarily accurate. Tyrion does not know what Tywin is thinking, he rarely ever does. Just because Tywin sends Tyrion to be acting Hand means he's given up on Jaime? Quite the leap in logic.

The others are all talking big, but they would be fools to just up and execute Jaime if they had him. Again, a hostage is a tricky thing: they're only valuable if they are alive.

Robb did not need sellswords or a larger army to make a deal with Renly. It would have been all done and done if Renly hadn't been killed. And Robb getting "weaker by the day" still did not prevent him from smashing the Lannister host at Oxcross, seizing the mines at Castamere, taking both Ashemark and the Crag . . .

So if Robb had accepted the offer you describe as his host was dwindling at Riverrun, it would have been a huge opportunity lost in light of his successes only a few months later. Think of it the way Dany does with her dragons: there are only three in the known world, so a good trade for one of them would be a third of all the ships in the known world. There is only one Jaime Lannister.

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46 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

 Robb did not need sellswords or a larger army to make a deal with Renly. It would have been all done and done if Renly hadn't been killed. And Robb getting "weaker by the day" still did not prevent him from smashing the Lannister host at Oxcross, seizing the mines at Castamere, taking both Ashemark and the Crag . . .

 

He didn't, true, but with another 20k he would have almost 60k, more than enough to match Renly's numbers and probably with a better quality.

48 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

 So if Robb had accepted the offer you describe as his host was dwindling at Riverrun, it would have been a huge opportunity lost in light of his successes only a few months later. Think of it the way Dany does with her dragons: there are only three in the known world, so a good trade for one of them would be a third of all the ships in the known world. There is only one Jaime Lannister.

This is not how market works, by this logic there is also only one Sansa, so her alone would be enough to match Jaime's value.

Jaime is only valuable as much as Tywin is willing to pay for him.  If Tywin will not pay a ramson of 6 million dragons then he is not worth that much.

Robb could still have achived the victory at Oxcross while making the deal, this is not a cease fire or peace offer, this is a hostage exchange. Robb took to long to act, his enemies by the end of AGOT where in dispair, by the time ACoK starts they are gaining confidence again.

 

56 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

None of these assumptions are necessarily accurate. Tyrion does not know what Tywin is thinking, he rarely ever does. Just because Tywin sends Tyrion to be acting Hand means he's given up on Jaime? Quite the leap in logic.

 The others are all talking big, but they would be fools to just up and execute Jaime if they had him. Again, a hostage is a tricky thing: they're only valuable if they are alive.

Tyrion probably knows Tywin better then ourselfs. The lords with Renly live in that culture and they would know what reaction to expect after Eddard's death. If they both took Jaime for expandable it means something.

A hostage is only valuable if they are alive, true, but they only have a effect if you are willing to kill then.

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2 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

He didn't, true, but with another 20k he would have almost 60k, more than enough to match Renly's numbers and probably with a better quality.

This is not how market works, by this logic there is also only one Sansa, so her alone would be enough to match Jaime's value.

Jaime is only valuable as much as Tywin is willing to pay for him.  If Tywin will not pay a ramson of 6 million dragons then he is not worth that much.

Robb could still have achived the victory at Oxcross while making the deal, this is not a cease fire or peace offer, this is a hostage exchange. Robb took to long to act, his enemies by the end of AGOT where in dispair, by the time ACoK starts they are gaining confidence again.

 

Tyrion probably knows Tywin better then ourselfs. The lords with Renly live in that culture and they would know what reaction to expect after Eddard's death. If they both took Jaime for expandable it means something.

A hostage is only valuable if they are alive, true, but they only have a effect if you are willing to kill then.

How do you figure Robb has 40,000 men under his command? He had barely 20k at Moat Caillen and picks up maybe a thousand (maybe only a few hundred) from the Mallisters on the way to Riverrun. Much of the Tully army has been destroyed at this point, first at the Golden Tooth, then at Rivverrun, so he has a few stragglers at best. It would be generous to say Robb has 25,000 men, nearly all of them with Roose Bolton in the east. So even 20,000 sellswords (which is literally two Golden Companies) doesn't even get him close to Renly's 80K+, and now he has the problem that nearly half his army is up for sale to the highest bidder.

You want 6 million dragons for Jaime Lannister? First off, I doubt very much that Tywin Lannister has 6 million dragons just lying in a vault somewhere. That is the entire crown's debt, all of which is on paper. Secondly, I can't imagine how much six million dragons would weigh. Gold is rather heavy, so it would take a near-Herculean effort to transport this much gold to the Riverlands, and an army to protect it. Which only means that once Jaime is handed over, Robb is stuck with the impossible logistics of moving all of this gold, and long before he can get any of these sellswords, Tywin attacks.

Your point about despair and confidence is exactly what I'm trying to say. The fortunes of war rise and fall, one moment your down, next your on top. So to hand Jaime over at any price right now would be foolish. Much better to wait and see how things play out. If you end up losing, he's a bargaining chip to at least get you back home. It you are winning, he is a bargaining chip to bring the war to an early end. Right now, when everything is still fluid, his real value is unknown.

No, sorry but their words mean nothing. If they had Jaime, they would have held on to him. Simply killing him would be a huge waste. Leverage over Tywin Lannister is not something to be squandered.

Yes, hostages are tricky business: the threat of killing them is what gives them value; actually killing them destroys that value.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

 You want 6 million dragons for Jaime Lannister? First off, I doubt very much that Tywin Lannister has 6 million dragons just lying in a vault somewhere. That is the entire crown's debt, all of which is on paper. Secondly, I can't imagine how much six million dragons would weigh. Gold is rather heavy, so it would take a near-Herculean effort to transport this much gold to the Riverlands, and an army to protect it. Which only means that once Jaime is handed over, Robb is stuck with the impossible logistics of moving all of this gold, and long before he can get any of these sellswords, Tywin attacks.

 

No I pointed a very huge and unreasonable number to show that Jaime has a limit in his valuable, and that Robb cannot ask for something that Tywin wouldn't pay for.

To be fair I don't even know how much would Jaime be worthed, that's why I asked you how much you think he could get out of it.

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

How do you figure Robb has 40,000 men under his command? He had barely 20k at Moat Caillen and picks up maybe a thousand (maybe only a few hundred) from the Mallisters on the way to Riverrun. Much of the Tully army has been destroyed at this point, first at the Golden Tooth, then at Rivverrun, so he has a few stragglers at best. It would be generous to say Robb has 25,000 men, nearly all of them with Roose Bolton in the east. So even 20,000 sellswords (which is literally two Golden Companies) doesn't even get him close to Renly's 80K+, and now he has the problem that nearly half his army is up for sale to the highest bidder.

 

Robb has at very least 27k,  at the start of the ACoK 10k under Roose, 11k  under Edmure and his own 6k, and this is after he "grew weak by the day" so he should have 30k or more at the end of AGoT. Kevan expected him to outnumber the Lannister army and this is not counting Roose's army.

Ser Kevan frowned over the map, forehead creasing. “Robb Stark will have Edmure Tully and the lords of the Trident with him now. Their combined power may exceed our own. And with Roose Bolton behind us. . . Tywin, if we remain here, I fear we might be caught between three armies.”

Renly thinks that Robb has 40k, With a extra 20k he can present a higher force to him. Catelyn if she is ever send to him could play a stronger hand.

Stannis got 20k mercenaries(at minimun) after the deal with the Iron bank, we don't know how much he got to borrow, but Jaime Ramsom would be a fortune, after all in the words of Lefford:

“Then we must ransom Ser Jaime, whatever it costs,” Lord Lefford said.

Edited by Arthur Peres
.

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25 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

Renly thinks that Robb has 40k, With a extra 20k he can present a higher force to him. Catelyn if she is ever send to him could play a stronger hand.

And Cat points out that he does not

"I'm told your son crossed the Neck with twenty thousand swords at his back," Renly went on. "Now that the lords of the Trident are with him, perhaps he commands forty thousand."
No, she thought, not near so many, we have lost men in battle, and others to the harvest.
20 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

“Then we must ransom Ser Jaime, whatever it costs,” Lord Lefford said.

He's being figurative, not literal. They are not about to destitute the entire Westerlands to get Jaime back. 

Brienne goes for 300 Dragons, when Robb and Edmure are desperate to get Jaime back they offer 1,000 Dragons and Jaime, being desperate, tells Roose that Cersei will offer 10,000. A million is a pipe dream. 

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2 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

He's being figurative, not literal. They are not about to destitute the entire Westerlands to get Jaime back. 

 Brienne goes for 300 Dragons, when Robb and Edmure are desperate to get Jaime back they offer 1,000 Dragons and Jaime, being desperate, tells Roose that Cersei will offer 10,000. A million is a pipe dream.

I know, read the first paragraph of the post...

"No I pointed a very huge and unreasonable number to show that Jaime has a limit in his valuable, and that Robb cannot ask for something that Tywin wouldn't pay for."

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