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Is Alyssa Farman or Alys Westhill Quaithe?


Seaserpent

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1 minute ago, Bael's Bastard said:

@Ran

Do you have any post or anything anywhere where you go into why you think Ashara is Quaithe?

It's a joke. (Not really).

To quote myself:

Quote

 

Ashara Dayne is the mysterious Quaithe of the Shadow. Quaithe speaks flawless Common Tongue despite allegedly being from the opposite side of the world, and we never see her face, or get a description of her eyes or hair color. And George revealed, way back when, that Ashara Dayne’s body was never recovered after she supposedly leapt into the Summer Sea out of grief for her brother’s death. A crazy person can just imagine Ashara faking her death to go east, to learn the prophecies which led Rhaegar to plunge the realm into war, and learning magic along the way.

It is a looney theory. I’ll be hailed as a prophet if it turns out to be true, and if not, well, it was a joke … right?

 

 

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Shiera Seastar is Quaithe, and the Three-Eyed Crow (because she is, possibly, based on Morgana le Fay, and Merlin's other lover - water fairy Nimue, and Irish Crow Goddess and queen of phantoms Morrigan <- will be really funny, if I'm right about that. Then I'm the only person on this forum, who has figured out, that the Three-Eyed Crow is not Bloodraven, but his half-sister Shiera. AGOT, Bran III - "The crow opened its beak and cawed at him, a shrill scream of fear, and the grey mists shuddered and swirled around him and ripped away like a veil, and he saw that the crow was really a woman").

And Elissa Farman is just Elissa Farman, and her role was to bring three Targaryen dragon eggs to Essos, where many years later they were hatched by Dany.

Maybe. Or, maybe, not.

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Just now, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Not even close. There are lots of people on here who don't agree with BR = 3EC. 

But they don't agree, that Shiera is the 3EC. I have read theories, that Old Nan is 3EC, or Melisandre, but there's no theory that it's Shiera.

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1 minute ago, Megorova said:

But they don't agree, that Shiera is the 3EC. I have read theories, that Old Nan is 3EC, or Melisandre, but there's no theory that it's Shiera.

You said, "Then I'm the only person on this forum, who has figured out, that the Three-Eyed Crow is not Bloodraven". 

I was simply pointing out that you are not the only person who thinks this.

*Myself believing the boring, old, unsexy BR = 3EC theory is beside the point.

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1 minute ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

You said, "Then I'm the only person on this forum, who has figured out, that the Three-Eyed Crow is not Bloodraven". 

I was simply pointing out that you are not the only person who thinks this.

*Myself believing the boring, old, unsexy BR = 3EC theory is beside the point.

Added to that post "but his half-sister Shiera." I lost that part, when I was posting quote from ASOIAF-search. ^_^

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19 hours ago, Megorova said:

snip

Sorry, this is all too implausible for me.

If they were cheated out of their eggs than Penny would not be thinking of them fondly.

Why would the sealord of Braavos suddenly be afraid that someone knew he had dragons eggs? They've been the sealords' property for nearly 200 years, and nobody knew about them, so what is Illyrio or anyone else going to do about it? Why would he just give the eggs to someone who has no ability to keep them or sell them proper? If he's doing this out of spite, why not sell them to someone who can protect them, permanently keeping them away of Ilyrio and pocketing a hefty sum for himself in the bargain?

For a theory to work, it has to fit the motivations of the principal players, and this one just doesn't.

Now, the sealord selling eggs to Illyrio, or perhaps gifting them in return for his help in becoming sealord, that's plausible.

 

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On 12/10/2018 at 7:16 PM, John Suburbs said:

 

Like I said, my connection between Littlefinger and Illyrio is sketchy, but here it is:

First, the convo between Illyrio and Varys that Arya overhears: Varys is telling Ill all he knows about the book and the attempt on Bran and the truth that Eddard will soon know -- basically everything that everyone of note has been doing behind the scenes. But when he brings up Littlefinger, he just blows it off with "the gods know what Littlefinger is up to", and Illyrio just accepts this without a word. Really Varys? Your job is to know everybody's secrets and yet you haven't made it a top priority to know what this man is up to? After all, he is only the man who is mucking around with the financial structure of the realm you hope to rule some day, and it's not like Littlefinger is solely responsible for your immediate problem: the fact that the great houses are going to war months, even years, before you planned. Varys, of course, is not the sharpest tool in the shed, particularly when it comes to Littlefinger, but Illyrio is the one financing this whole operation; he should immediately realize what a risk that their blindness in regards to LF represents. So my suspicion is that he doesn't need to know what LF is up to, he already knows.

Secondly, we have LF's performance as a duty collector in Gulltown and then KL. The only ways to increase incomes like that in such a short time is if he produces a dramatic uptick in trade or he starts squeezing ship captains and merchants for more money. The first options is highly unlikely. He is barely a landed lord himself, and there is no indication that he has the contacts or the ability to arrange such a flow of goods from the free cities or anywhere else, let alone spur the demand needed to justify this increase. The second option is even less likely. People don't like to be separated from their money, and the docks are notoriously dangerous places run by notoriously dangerous people. If LF is suddenly taking ten times the amount they are used to, LF would be a dead man -- at best, he certainly wouldn't have all of these friends in Gulltown and KL that he claims. His rep would not be that of an amiable gentleman who gets along with everyone but a tax gouger who is impoverishing the very people that the high and might depend upon for their wealth.

So that leaves us with a third option: that LF was being bankrolled at Gulltown and at the beginning in KL. And who might this benefactor be? Why, none other than the extremely wealthy merchant from across the sea who is actively trying to destabilize the realm that he hopes to conquer.

Its Sketchy but its an original option i think. We know more about what LF does and Illyrio doesnt know much, because his information is from Varys. What Varys doesn't know Illeryo doesn't know. Offcourse LF has big jobs in botch ports, but it doesn't say that he is up to anything else than trade. I think the ultimate goal from LF has nothing to do with houses but trade and eventually being more powerful than any king.

 

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3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

If they were cheated out of their eggs than Penny would not be thinking of them fondly.

Maybe, they weren't cheated. As I said before, maybe, Hop-Bean and Varys knew each other, and Hop-Bean himself gave them away to Varys, and, maybe, was even given something in return. Obviously, Hop-Bean could have hoped to sell them to someone for high price, but the thing is, there was no guaranty, that the buyer wouldn't have just tried to take them away by force, without paying, or even tried to kill Hop-Bean. So it was safer to sell them to someone, whom Hop-Bean knew, and trusted, even if the price wasn't high.

It is known, that Hop-Bean wasn't free. He belonged to his troupe, same as Varys belonged to his. Varys was sold to sorcerer. Maybe, the troupe, to which Hop-Bean belonged, was Varys' or Illyrio's property, so Hop-Bean gave those eggs to his master, and that's how he bought his freedoom, and freedoom for his two children. Thus Penny has fond memories about those events, because that's what made them free.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Why would the sealord of Braavos suddenly be afraid that someone knew he had dragons eggs?

I didn't said anything about him being afraid. Or did I? :huh: Being wary and being afraid, are totally different things.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

They've been the sealords' property for nearly 200 years, and nobody knew about them, so what is Illyrio or anyone else going to do about it?

Why do you think, that no one knew about them? Varys knew everything, important or significant. So, obviously, he knew about those dragon eggs. And he wanted to get them, because he already had Targaryen children under his control, so he was hoping, that they will manage to hatch those eggs, and then he will have dragons.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Why would he just give the eggs to someone who has no ability to keep them or sell them proper?

There could be many reasons, and thus, based on whichever that reason actually was, there's also many scenarios of how that could have happened.

I think, that it's not a mere coincidence, or a red herring, that in F&B GRRM has wrote about three dragon eggs, that were stolen from Targaryens, and ended up as possession of the Sealord of Braavos, and in ADWD Penny has said to Tyrion, that she and her family, each, the three of them, has received a great gift from the Sealord. So I'm 90% sure, that that great gift were three dragon eggs, the same that later Illyrio has given to Dany, as her wedding present.

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

For a theory to work, it has to fit the motivations of the principal players, and this one just doesn't.

We will find out, whether this theory of mine is correct or not, if GRRM will ever return to this "mystery" - the origin of Dany's dragons. Until then, let's agree to disagree :cheers:

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1 hour ago, Seaserpent said:

Its Sketchy but its an original option i think. We know more about what LF does and Illyrio doesnt know much, because his information is from Varys. What Varys doesn't know Illeryo doesn't know. Offcourse LF has big jobs in botch ports, but it doesn't say that he is up to anything else than trade. I think the ultimate goal from LF has nothing to do with houses but trade and eventually being more powerful than any king.

 

All true, but the question is why neither of them are all that concerned about what they don't know about LF. They don't even seem to be aware that they have this huge blind spot around the man who can do, and is doing, more than anyone else to muck up their plans. Can they both be that stupid? I think not.

And yes, LF's game is trade. But he cannot have achieved all of these revenue gains without single-handedly boosting trade from the free cities and elsewhere -- and even then, the revenue gains would be shared among all collectors, not just Littlefinger. Likewise, he cannot have started taking more money out of the pockets of merchants, traders, captains and everyone else who does business without making enemies of virtually everyone in both cities. So the only option that I can see is that he was getting bankrolled, and the only likely bankroller is Illyrio.

And yes again to your last point: most people seem to think that LF wants to be king, but I don't think so. He wants to be the power behind the throne, like Tywin. Kings have a tendency of getting themselves killed.

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1 hour ago, Megorova said:

Maybe, they weren't cheated. As I said before, maybe, Hop-Bean and Varys knew each other, and Hop-Bean himself gave them away to Varys, and, maybe, was even given something in return. Obviously, Hop-Bean could have hoped to sell them to someone for high price, but the thing is, there was no guaranty, that the buyer wouldn't have just tried to take them away by force, without paying, or even tried to kill Hop-Bean. So it was safer to sell them to someone, whom Hop-Bean knew, and trusted, even if the price wasn't high.

It is known, that Hop-Bean wasn't free. He belonged to his troupe, same as Varys belonged to his. Varys was sold to sorcerer. Maybe, the troupe, to which Hop-Bean belonged, was Varys' or Illyrio's property, so Hop-Bean gave those eggs to his master, and that's how he bought his freedoom, and freedoom for his two children. Thus Penny has fond memories about those events, because that's what made them free.

I didn't said anything about him being afraid. Or did I? :huh: Being wary and being afraid, are totally different things.

Why do you think, that no one knew about them? Varys knew everything, important or significant. So, obviously, he knew about those dragon eggs. And he wanted to get them, because he already had Targaryen children under his control, so he was hoping, that they will manage to hatch those eggs, and then he will have dragons.

There could be many reasons, and thus, based on whichever that reason actually was, there's also many scenarios of how that could have happened.

I think, that it's not a mere coincidence, or a red herring, that in F&B GRRM has wrote about three dragon eggs, that were stolen from Targaryens, and ended up as possession of the Sealord of Braavos, and in ADWD Penny has said to Tyrion, that she and her family, each, the three of them, has received a great gift from the Sealord. So I'm 90% sure, that that great gift were three dragon eggs, the same that later Illyrio has given to Dany, as her wedding present.

We will find out, whether this theory of mine is correct or not, if GRRM will ever return to this "mystery" - the origin of Dany's dragons. Until then, let's agree to disagree :cheers:

Sorry, there's just too many holes. If Hop-Bean belonged to his troupe, then the eggs would rightly belong to whomever owned the troupe. So there is no reason he should be granted anything in return for the eggs.

Why would Penny be afraid to tell Tyrion this story, since she no longer has the eggs nor knows what became of them?

The whole idea of the sealord just giving the eggs away is equally implausible. Even if they were suddenly too hot to keep, there are better ways to dispose of them than to hand them off to a bunch of performing dwarves.

Also, I'll have to check, but I don't think this story about the eggs was known until recently when Maester Yandel discovered the manuscript that Gyldayn had sent to Archmaester Gerold all those years ago. The theft and the discussion between the sealord and Barth was a state secret, known only to Barth and Jaehaerys, which Gyldayn only learned upon discovery of Barth's private journal.

If either Illyrio or Varys thought the eggs would hatch, why on earth would they give them to Dany? She is a minor piece in their broader plan to put fAegon on the Iron Throne. If anyone should have gotten an egg, it should have been fAegon.

I am certain that the three eggs in F&B are Dany's as well, but this idea that they were just given to Hop-Bean for five minutes of fake jousting is simply not plausible. Ultimately, it comes down to why? Why would Martin create this convoluted, contradictory and ultimately superfluous sequence of events, when it could very easily be that the eggs came up for sale at some point and Illyrio was the highest bidder. He's already struggling to write the last two books, why bother with all of this when it adds absolutely nothing to the story?

But I think I'll start another threat on this subject if you don't mind, since you pose an interesting question: what could the Sealord of Braavos have given Penny and Oppo all those years ago that she doesn't want Tyrion to know about now?

 

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11 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

All true, but the question is why neither of them are all that concerned about what they don't know about LF. They don't even seem to be aware that they have this huge blind spot around the man who can do, and is doing, more than anyone else to muck up their plans. Can they both be that stupid? I think not.

And yes, LF's game is trade. But he cannot have achieved all of these revenue gains without single-handedly boosting trade from the free cities and elsewhere -- and even then, the revenue gains would be shared among all collectors, not just Littlefinger. Likewise, he cannot have started taking more money out of the pockets of merchants, traders, captains and everyone else who does business without making enemies of virtually everyone in both cities. So the only option that I can see is that he was getting bankrolled, and the only likely bankroller is Illyrio.

And yes again to your last point: most people seem to think that LF wants to be king, but I don't think so. He wants to be the power behind the throne, like Tywin. Kings have a tendency of getting themselves killed.

Is said the same he want total power like in the real world the power is also with Banks (iron bank) and other invisible people like LF in this story. In asoiaf LF puts indirectly the the marchers to death that Joffrey catapulting over the blackwater. Same as in Rome all there wealth went to the crown and who is collecting it? LF. In the whorehouses he can clean the money afterwards.  So this kind of tricks would also have worked in Gulltown, he is also the one who collecting the harbortax of Gulltwon. So he is in a very good position to earn a lot of money with the right people working and bribing for him. And offcourse i agree with your point that LF would be a person of interest for Illyrio, they allready think or know he is a big schemer, but it seems like they just cant get their hands on him and put it to the gods what he is up to. But it seems to less evidence that he is working with Ilyrio.

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6 hours ago, Seaserpent said:

Is said the same he want total power like in the real world the power is also with Banks (iron bank) and other invisible people like LF in this story. In asoiaf LF puts indirectly the the marchers to death that Joffrey catapulting over the blackwater. Same as in Rome all there wealth went to the crown and who is collecting it? LF. In the whorehouses he can clean the money afterwards.  So this kind of tricks would also have worked in Gulltown, he is also the one who collecting the harbortax of Gulltwon. So he is in a very good position to earn a lot of money with the right people working and bribing for him. And offcourse i agree with your point that LF would be a person of interest for Illyrio, they allready think or know he is a big schemer, but it seems like they just cant get their hands on him and put it to the gods what he is up to. But it seems to less evidence that he is working with Ilyrio.

Right, like I said, the idea that LF is working for Illyrio is sketchy. But no, if LF is suddenly collecting 10 times the revenue from the same people and the same trade, this is going to result in widespread dissatisfaction among merchants, traders, craftsmen... He would have few friends, if any, in either Gulltown or King's Landing even if he is using some of this money for bribes. In the end, he is taking in more money -- a lot more money -- than he is giving out, and people don't like it when the cost of doing business is suddenly 10 times what it was.

Even if Illyrio and Varys cannot penetrate LF's secrecy, they should still make it a priority to do so, given the harm that he is already doing to their plans and the potential harm that he could do as Master of Coin. I and V are master manipulators and behind-the-scenes movers of events. The idea that they would simply accept the fact that they have no insight into LF's game runs completely counter to their characters. My only explanation for this is that Illyrio, at least, already knows what LF is doing. I have yet to hear another plausible explanation.

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1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

My only explanation for this is that Illyrio, at least, already knows what LF is doing. I have yet to hear another plausible explanation.

Littlefinger is Varys' ex-little bird, and thus he knows all about Varys, and his game-plans, that go way back in time, when LF was still loyal to his teacher? And, maybe, they know, what LF is up to, because he is using their own plan, + some alterations, that will make LF either King of 7K, or at least fAegon's Hand, when fAegon will become King thru LF's help (maybe the biggest part of his plan, how to get into fAegon's inner circle, is if he will offer to fAegon something more significant, than what will be offered to him by Varys - Sansa, the key to three Kingdoms VS Margaery, the key to The Reach.

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5 hours ago, Megorova said:

Littlefinger is Varys' ex-little bird, and thus he knows all about Varys, and his game-plans, that go way back in time, when LF was still loyal to his teacher? And, maybe, they know, what LF is up to, because he is using their own plan, + some alterations, that will make LF either King of 7K, or at least fAegon's Hand, when fAegon will become King thru LF's help (maybe the biggest part of his plan, how to get into fAegon's inner circle, is if he will offer to fAegon something more significant, than what will be offered to him by Varys - Sansa, the key to three Kingdoms VS Margaery, the key to The Reach.

I doubt this too. Varys' little birds are children, and LF spent his childhood at Riverrun playing kissy games with the Tully sisters. Hoster Tully apparently knew LF's father, who was a minor lord in the Vale, so it would be quite a stretch to say that before fostering him at Riverrun his father sent his only son to be a spy for the eunuch. Also, it's pretty evident that the little birds have their tongues out.

If they know what LF is up to, then why do they pretend to each other that they do not?

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7 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Right, like I said, the idea that LF is working for Illyrio is sketchy. But no, if LF is suddenly collecting 10 times the revenue from the same people and the same trade, this is going to result in widespread dissatisfaction among merchants, traders, craftsmen... He would have few friends, if any, in either Gulltown or King's Landing even if he is using some of this money for bribes. In the end, he is taking in more money -- a lot more money -- than he is giving out, and people don't like it when the cost of doing business is suddenly 10 times what it was.

Even if Illyrio and Varys cannot penetrate LF's secrecy, they should still make it a priority to do so, given the harm that he is already doing to their plans and the potential harm that he could do as Master of Coin. I and V are master manipulators and behind-the-scenes movers of events. The idea that they would simply accept the fact that they have no insight into LF's game runs completely counter to their characters. My only explanation for this is that Illyrio, at least, already knows what LF is doing. I have yet to hear another plausible explanation.

I think its clear for I and V what LF is doing and how he become so rich all from the jobs that Lysa profile for him. What his endgoal is is for us as reader not even clear. But what we say that its to be powerfull behind the scene. but some other explaination why i think he is no crony of Ilyrio is that he fucked up the plan by making war so soon between Starks and Lannisters. Varys and Ilyrio needed to act quickly were the plan was to bring Aegon later in the fold (i guess when Dany or at least the dragons showed up). LF himself says he wants chaos, so helping Aegon to make the realm whole again is good for some years, but after that he needs the chaos again.

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