MLB Offseason 2018: Harper, Your Herald Boras Sings

[Fez]

20 minutes ago, Ramsay B. said:

It’s just beyond annoying that Cashman used the “loaded” Yankees OF excuse to not even consider(in the public at least)getting a young lefty bopper like Harper. Because Gardner, Ellsbury and Frazier aren’t HUGE question marks. 

Also, the Bobby Bonilla contract still outlasts Harper’s.

The Bonilla mention is actually relevant here. Apparently the Nationals offer had a huge amount of deferred payments, per a WaPo sporters writer:

So that potentially makes the Nats offer less attractive than it had seemed. Deferred payments are great if the interest rates on them are high enough, like Bonilla's are, but when they aren't (and there are plenty of players with deferred payments at flat rates, albeit usually for a only a year or two after the contract ends) it's just leaving money on the table.

[DMC]

35 minutes ago, Ramsay B. said:

Because Gardner, Ellsbury and Frazier aren’t HUGE question marks. 

I don't think Ellsbury counts anymore, but yeah.

 

[DMC]

5 hours ago, Triskele said:

Bryce Harper has never been as good of a hitter as Albert Pujols.

Harper is 6 years younger than Pujols was when he signed with the Angels.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I thought it was a bad signing based on the financials, but after seeing this just now, holy (bleep), this is a terrible contract:   

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bryce-harper-may-already-be-past-his-prime/

[Mr. X]

On 2/28/2019 at 4:27 PM, Myshkin said:

While Yanks fans are bemoaning the fact that they didn’t get Harper, I’m celebrating that the Dodgers didn’t pony up for him. 

As a Phillies fan, I'm accepting this with a resigned shrug. Yes, it will probably pay off for a few years. But I think the Phils are just as likely to be stuck with lots of contract baggage for years afterwards.

[Ramsay B.]

11 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I thought it was a bad signing based on the financials, but after seeing this just now, holy (bleep), this is a terrible contract:   

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bryce-harper-may-already-be-past-his-prime/

The 13 year contract is fucking nuts, and Harper has always been overrated because of his insane hype. But to suggest he may be past his prime is a bit much- numbers or not. I thnk he’ll have 5-6 good to great years, and then the nightmare will begin. 

[DMC]

On 3/1/2019 at 9:48 PM, Triskele said:

But the point is largely the same.  How sure are we that Harper will be anything in 13 years or even 10?  Deals this long are so risky.  

The Pujols deal was perahps more insane because of his age at the time and the virtual certainty that he'd be shite in the 2nd half of that deal.  But Harper's to me is not so dissimilar.

But it's a fundamentally different deal because you're getting Harper's age 26-31 years, and the Angels got none of Pujols'.  Pujols averaged 8.1 WAR in those six seasons.  Is Harper gonna do that?  Ha, but you're getting 6 peak years that is likeliest to give you surplus value.  Do you gotta pay on the backend?  Yep, that's how it goes.  But Harper at least plays the outfield and can actually run so he shouldn't be as useless as Pujols as he ages.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

On 3/1/2019 at 10:05 PM, Ramsay B. said:

The 13 year contract is fucking nuts, and Harper has always been overrated because of his insane hype. But to suggest he may be past his prime is a bit much- numbers or not. I thnk he’ll have 5-6 good to great years, and then the nightmare will begin. 

It’s probably hyperbolic to say he’s past his prime, but the point is that he is incredibly inconsistent, and there’s no way you give that guy a long term deal, especially until he’s about to turn 40. It’s a horrific contract.

[DMC]

5 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

It’s probably hyperbolic to say he’s past his prime, but the point is that he is incredibly inconsistent, and there’s no way you give that guy a long term deal, especially until he’s about to turn 40. It’s a horrific contract.

It's not that he's "incredibly inconsistent," at least with the bat.  It's just that 538 article is based on WAR, which is a cumulative state, and he's had injury problems throughout his career (a valid concern in its own right, of course).  Plus, he's been dinged a bit defensively on quite a few occasions - and dinged a lot defensively last year, although the consensus seemed to be he was protecting himself from injury last year.  I think his rather poor, or at least middling, defensive metrics don't quite match the eye test.  He certainly doesn't seem to be a liability out there.  But I guess we'll see if he can stabilize that.

As for the bat, of his seven seasons, he's had four seasons in which his OPS has ranged from .814 to .889, then two seasons with an OPS over 1.000.  The only way that's "inconsistent" is that he's either a very good hitter or an absolutely elite hitter.  He did have one season where his OPS dropped to .768, but he was 21 and only played 100 games.  In general, you can at least rely on him being a very good hitter.  He's demonstrated a consistently elite-level walk rate.  The real concern with him is his hard hit% and exit velocity averages did not look too good last year (or at least were merely above average among all players).  That's definitely something to keep an eye on for a power hitter.

Anyway, the 538 article led with "Bryce Harper may have already played his best baseball."  By season, that's true in all likelihood.  But that's because he had a 10 WAR season with a 1.109 OPS in 2015.  That's really hard for anyone to match, but that really doesn't matter.  It's also likely Aaron Judge hit the most home runs he ever will - and maybe even had his best offensive season - in his rookie campaign.  I don't care, and neither should the Phillies.

[Fez]

If the NL adopts the DH rule before the contract expires (good chance of that, I suspect), I think the Harper contract will turn out fine. If it doesn't, I think that he'll become a defensive liability long before its over (also, there's an increased chance of injury if he's playing defense every day). 

Also, I agree that the 538 article is misleading because of the missed time he's had from injury.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Fez said:

If the NL adopts the DH rule before the contract expires (good chance of that, I suspect), I think the Harper contract will turn out fine. If it doesn't, I think that he'll become a defensive liability long before its over (also, there's an increased chance of injury if he's playing defense every day).

I heard a lot of chatter last week that the Phillies - and even the Padres with Manny - are anticipating the NL will get the DH after the next CBA and that influenced their offers.  And yeah, even if he can improve/stabilize his defensive metrics, he's almost certainly going to be a liability out there for his age 33+ seasons, at the latest.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, DMC said:

I heard a lot of chatter last week that the Phillies - and even the Padres with Manny - are anticipating the NL will get the DH after the next CBA and that influenced their offers.  And yeah, even if he can improve/stabilize his defensive metrics, he's almost certainly going to be a liability out there for his age 33+ seasons, at the latest.

Incredibly inconsistent was too strong, but one thing that troubles me about Harper is that he has large swings within seasons. Now, it's baseball and baseball is the cruelest sport, but that would really worry me later on in the contract. 

[DMC]

12 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

that would really worry me later on in the contract. 

The nature of the contract is later on you're eating value.  But, with his on-base ability his bat should be worth ~$10 million market value for the last 5-6 years (and that market value should increase to about $15 million by that time).  Again, the bet is that he gives you enough surplus value in the first half of the contract for that to at least even out.  That's the case with any huge and long (grow up!) contract, and why his and Manny's were desirable because you're signing them for what are usually players' peak years rather than immediately after or at the tail end when the player is ~30.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

The nature of the contract is later on you're eating value.  But, with his on-base ability his bat should be worth ~$10 million market value for the last 5-6 years (and that market value should increase to about $15 million by that time).  Again, the bet is that he gives you enough surplus value in the first half of the contract for that to at least even out.  That's the case with any huge and long (grow up!) contract, and why his and Manny's were desirable because you're signing them for what are usually players' peak years rather than immediately after or at the tail end when the player is ~30.

DO NOT TELL ME TO GROW UP!!!11!1!! 

Jokes aside, I do agree. He has to bring home a title though. Fans will forgive him for bad play when he's aged and over payed if he does, but they will probably turn on him hard if he doesn't. 

[Mr. X]

On 3/1/2019 at 11:53 PM, Triskele said:

OH MR X NO

How did I not know this about you all of this time?  

You never asked?

I grew up in the Philly suburbs. Mike Schmidt was my baseball hero and Wilbert Montgomery ruled the football lands. Honestly, I'm a pretty casual fan (of everything, not just baseball), so I tend not to be super forward about it.

[DMC]

Sevy shut down for two weeks with rotator cuff inflammation.  Just about the most ominous news possible for Yanks fans.  Sonofamother...

[PyroclasticFlow]

20 hours ago, DMC said:

Sevy shut down for two weeks with rotator cuff inflammation.  Just about the most ominous news possible for Yanks fans.  Sonofamother...

When is Gumby expected back? Has he even started throwing yet?

[DMC]

Yeah he started throwing during around the playoffs last year.  Here's a link on his progress.  Still, it's never good to rely on someone recovering from TJS.  It's quite possible he will need this entire year to get back to his general ability - which is still about a 4/5 starter on a World Series contender.

 

[Ramsay B.]

On 3/5/2019 at 4:32 PM, DMC said:

Sevy shut down for two weeks with rotator cuff inflammation.  Just about the most ominous news possible for Yanks fans.  Sonofamother...

That was not a fun alert to wake up to yesterday. After hearing the Judge talk about beating their own home run record this year, my pessimistic and superstitious self figured some bad news would be right around the corner... and yup.

I have my main auction draft on Saturday and I’m really interested to see what Vlad Jr’s value is gonna be. Dude is gonna be like Trout in 2012 and just hit the ground running after he comes up in late April, or whenever.

[Bronn Stone]

15 minutes ago, Ramsay B. said:

I have my main auction draft on Saturday and I’m really interested to see what Vlad Jr’s value is gonna be. Dude is gonna be like Trout in 2012 and just hit the ground running after he comes up in late April, or whenever.

I sat on him all last year in a Dynasty league (and in the Westeros redraft league) and got nothing.  I'm looking forward to this year a lot.  I hope you are right.