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Illyrio's fate foreshadowed


sweetsunray

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Just now, sweetsunray said:

We already have mounting evidence for the motivation with the scenes we have: opportunistic ambition. Now I know that for many readers this seems too simple, as they have often expressed their dissatisfaction with that as a motive for Illyrio, hence the need to involve Blackfyre ties, just like plenty of readers are dissatisfied with the motivation we got for Joffrey sending a catspaw to kill Bran.

I think we were only given part of the story on Bran with the rest to come later. The explanation for Jon's death was straight forward and satisfactory in itself, but for Bran, we got speculation, interweaving, assumptions...parts are still being hidden.

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Just now, sweetsunray said:

I assume the statue to be Illyrio, not Aegon, as that is what Illyrio tells us it to be.

Cherries with cream, Illyrio eats while he talks of women. Dany throws white cherries to Xaro when he starts up the wedding suggestions again. And the bride in the Egg story of the tourney is eating cherries while seated in her husband's lap.

But I agree that Illyrio knows the throne is bloody business.

GRRM often warns us somehow when a character is lying and right before the spiel about the statue, Tyrion catches Illyrio lying about Varys' home town. Illyrio changes the subject to the statue after being caught.

Also, lots of Stark symbolism around Aegon and there's loads of Starkiness about that statue making them consistent. I'm not saying I'm sure about it (a small mystery never answered?), but I think there are solid reasons to believe it's really Aegon.

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36 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

GRRM often warns us somehow when a character is lying and right before the spiel about the statue, Tyrion catches Illyrio lying about Varys' home town. Illyrio changes the subject to the statue after being caught.

Also, lots of Stark symbolism around Aegon and there's loads of Starkiness about that statue making them consistent. I'm not saying I'm sure about it (a small mystery never answered?), but I think there are solid reasons to believe it's really Aegon.

Does he? Illyrio is not lying that Varys and him were two boys in Pentos. And Tyrion himself is wrong about Varys's origin. Tyrion believes it to be Myr, but that's the city where Varys was bought from the mummers to be castrated by the sorcerer. Pycelle claims to Ned that Varys comes from Lys.

Tyrion calls Illyrio a liar on Illyrio's suggestion he helps Dany to become master of coins and gain a castle. That is indeed the likely lie. At this point, Tyrion hasn't yet met Griff, nor figured out Griff is "Aegon" several chapters later on the boat. It's only later in the chapter with Illyrio when Griff is mentioned  by Haldon that it's clear that Illyrio has a deep regret of not being able to see the boy, and by then we've been given the story of Serra.

The statue needs to be Illyrio in order to serve as further suggestion that he is the probable father of Aegon. The statue being Aegon serves no purpose, except with the strange claim that "cherry trees" are dragons and Blackfyres in particular.

Anyhow here's the quote you're alluding to.

 
Quote

 

"We were young together, two green boys in Pentos."
"Varys came from Myr."
"So he did. I met him not long after he arrived, one step ahead of the slavers. By day he slept in the sewers, by night he prowled the rooftops like a cat. I was near as poor, a bravo in soiled silks, living by my blade. Perhaps you chanced to glimpse the statue by my pool? Pytho Malanon carved that when I was six-and-ten. A lovely thing, though now I weep to see it."
"Age makes ruins of us all. I am still in mourning for my nose. But Varys …"
"In Myr he was a prince of thieves, until a rival thief informed on him. In Pentos his accent marked him, and once he was known for a eunuch he was despised and beaten. Why he chose me to protect him I may never know, but we came to an arrangement. Varys spied on lesser thieves and took their takings. I offered my help to their victims, promising to recover their valuables for a fee. Soon every man who had suffered a loss knew to come to me, whilst city's footpads and cutpurses sought out Varys … half to slit his throat, the other half to sell him what they'd stolen. We both grew rich, and richer still when Varys trained his mice." (aDwD, Tyrion II)

 

 
Now, how does Illyrio lie about Varys insofar Tyrion knows (since Tyrion believes Varys to be from Myr, not even knowing about Lys)? Heck, Illyrio even expands on Varys, after he mentioned the statue. The overall lie in that chapter to Tyrion is about "sending you as a gift to help Dany conquer Westeros and Griff is just Griff who has nothing to do with me."
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For signs that a character is lying, we may get Arbor Gold, the character may observe something suspicious (Bran doesn't quite trust the CotF), or the character may question the other character outright. Tyrion tells himself that trusting Varys is a bad idea and then we find out that when Tyrion asks Varys where LF has disappeared to in the Reach, Varys gives a total BS answer suggesting maybe he's dead by the roadside which Tyrion doesn't buy at all. Varys knew and wasn't talking for some reason.

Illyrio himself admits that he screwed it up. If Varys went to Pentos later, by Varys' own words, he can be hardly be described as a green boy at that point.

ADWD Tyrion II

"We were young together, two green boys in Pentos."

"Varys came from Myr."

"So he did. I met him not long after he arrived, one step ahead of the slavers. By day he slept in the sewers, by night he prowled the rooftops like a cat. I was near as poor, a bravo in soiled silks, living by my blade. Perhaps you chanced to glimpse the statue by my pool? Pytho Malanon carved that when I was six-and-ten. A lovely thing, though now I weep to see it."

ACOK Tyrion X

"The mummers had sailed by the time he was done with me. Once I had served his purpose, the man had no further interest in me, so he put me out. When I asked him what I should do now, he answered that he supposed I should die. To spite him, I resolved to live. I begged, I stole, and I sold what parts of my body still remained to me. Soon I was as good a thief as any in Myr, and when I was older I learned that often the contents of a man's letters are more valuable than the contents of his purse.

"Yet I still dream of that night, my lord. Not of the sorcerer, nor his blade, nor even the way my manhood shriveled as it burned. I dream of the voice. The voice from the flames. Was it a god, a demon, some conjurer's trick? I could not tell you, and I know all the tricks. All I can say for a certainty is that he called it, and it answered, and since that day I have hated magic and all those who practice it. If Lord Stannis is one such, I mean to see him dead."

 

I don't believe Varys' story about castration. The author wouldn't repeatedly bring up an eunuch's voice dropping across different POVs if the intent wasn't for the reader to question if he was really a eunuch. And Varys' proclaimed deep hatred of sorcery, to the extent he wishes death on all associated with magic doesn't gel with Varys' loyalty to the super-magical Targs with their magical dragons, and magical rites to hatch dragons, and pyromancers, and Summerhall shenanigans, and Aegon marrying Dany who's so tied to magic. I have no idea about Varys at this point. Varys hatred of magic and his working for Targs/Blackfyres can't both be true.

11 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

The statue needs to be Illyrio in order to serve as further suggestion that he is the probable father of Aegon. The statue being Aegon serves no purpose, except with the strange claim that "cherry trees" are dragons and Blackfyres in particular.

Illyrio may be Aegon's father, but it's not necessary. People can get attached to kids without the blood connection and we see that elsewhere in the story. I can't explain the statue, but there's a lot about it that's oddly weird and detailed and unnecessary to the story unless there's more we don't know which is yet another reason why I won't think we've seen the last of Illyrio or other characters like him without more info. Just because something doesn't look to serve a purpose now, doesn't mean it won't be shown to have one later, and things which have unusual and inexplicable detail are a sign that there's likely more to come, otherwise, why choose to add it?

 

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53 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Anyhow here's the quote you're alluding to.

 
Quote

 

"We were young together, two green boys in Pentos."
"Varys came from Myr."
"So he did. I met him not long after he arrived, one step ahead of the slavers. By day he slept in the sewers, by night he prowled the rooftops like a cat. I was near as poor, a bravo in soiled silks, living by my blade. Perhaps you chanced to glimpse the statue by my pool? Pytho Malanon carved that when I was six-and-ten. A lovely thing, though now I weep to see it."
"Age makes ruins of us all. I am still in mourning for my nose. But Varys …"
"In Myr he was a prince of thieves, until a rival thief informed on him. In Pentos his accent marked him, and once he was known for a eunuch he was despised and beaten. Why he chose me to protect him I may never know, but we came to an arrangement. Varys spied on lesser thieves and took their takings. I offered my help to their victims, promising to recover their valuables for a fee. Soon every man who had suffered a loss knew to come to me, whilst city's footpads and cutpurses sought out Varys … half to slit his throat, the other half to sell him what they'd stolen. We both grew rich, and richer still when Varys trained his mice." (aDwD, Tyrion II)

 

 
Now, how does Illyrio lie about Varys insofar Tyrion knows (since Tyrion believes Varys to be from Myr, not even knowing about Lys)? Heck, Illyrio even expands on Varys, after he mentioned the statue. The overall lie in that chapter to Tyrion is about "sending you as a gift to help Dany conquer Westeros and Griff is just Griff who has nothing to do with me."

Edited 27 minutes ago by sweetsunray

This part was added after I started to reply.

I don’t agree with this interpretation. If you’re right, it’s bad writing as I and most take this for a lie on Illyrio’s part. Add in Tyrion's skepticism of Illyrio in general and here, Varys' backstory not adding up, Dany portraying Illyrio as slimy and skeevy, seeing Illyrio all plotty through Arya, it points to Illyrio being caught in a lie/mistake and trying to cover it up.

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

For signs that a character is lying, we may get Arbor Gold, the character may observe something suspicious (Bran doesn't quite trust the CotF), or the character may question the other character outright. Tyrion tells himself that trusting Varys is a bad idea and then we find out that when Tyrion asks Varys where LF has disappeared to in the Reach, Varys gives a total BS answer suggesting maybe he's dead by the roadside which Tyrion doesn't buy at all. Varys knew and wasn't talking for some reason.

Illyrio himself admits that he screwed it up. If Varys went to Pentos later, by Varys' own words, he can be hardly be described as a green boy at that point.

ADWD Tyrion II

 

"We were young together, two green boys in Pentos."

 

"Varys came from Myr."

 

"So he did. I met him not long after he arrived, one step ahead of the slavers. By day he slept in the sewers, by night he prowled the rooftops like a cat. I was near as poor, a bravo in soiled silks, living by my blade. Perhaps you chanced to glimpse the statue by my pool? Pytho Malanon carved that when I was six-and-ten. A lovely thing, though now I weep to see it."

 

ACOK Tyrion X

 

"The mummers had sailed by the time he was done with me. Once I had served his purpose, the man had no further interest in me, so he put me out. When I asked him what I should do now, he answered that he supposed I should die. To spite him, I resolved to live. I begged, I stole, and I sold what parts of my body still remained to me. Soon I was as good a thief as any in Myr, and when I was older I learned that often the contents of a man's letters are more valuable than the contents of his purse.

 

"Yet I still dream of that night, my lord. Not of the sorcerer, nor his blade, nor even the way my manhood shriveled as it burned. I dream of the voice. The voice from the flames. Was it a god, a demon, some conjurer's trick? I could not tell you, and I know all the tricks. All I can say for a certainty is that he called it, and it answered, and since that day I have hated magic and all those who practice it. If Lord Stannis is one such, I mean to see him dead."

 

 

 

I don't believe Varys' story about castration. The author wouldn't repeatedly bring up an eunuch's voice dropping across different POVs if the intent wasn't for the reader to question if he was really a eunuch. And Varys' proclaimed deep hatred of sorcery, to the extent he wishes death on all associated with magic doesn't gel with Varys' loyalty to the super-magical Targs with their magical dragons, and magical rites to hatch dragons, and pyromancers, and Summerhall shenanigans, and Aegon marrying Dany who's so tied to magic. I have no idea about Varys at this point. Varys hatred of magic and his working for Targs/Blackfyres can't both be true.

 

 

Illyrio may be Aegon's father, but it's not necessary. People can get attached to kids without the blood connection and we see that elsewhere in the story. I can't explain the statue, but there's a lot about it that's oddly weird and detailed and unnecessary to the story unless there's more we don't know which is yet another reason why I won't think we've seen the last of Illyrio or other characters like him without more info. Just because something doesn't look to serve a purpose now, doesn't mean it won't be shown to have one later, and things which have unusual and inexplicable detail are a sign that there's likely more to come, otherwise, why choose to add it?

 

Except that Tyrion misses stuff too. He's smart, but he considers himself smarter than he often is. That's how people often manage to fool him. He completely misses the many clues that Haldon is a woman for example and he completely was snowed by Sansa. At other times he gets so paranoid that he doesn't believe people who are helping him. George uses suspicion and paranoia in POV to mislead the reader: see Brienne trusting the two hedge knights, but completely distrusting her guide into Crakclaw Point while the man was trustworthy. He does something similar with Tyrion towards characters that readers already suspect of being shady.

Varys despises individuals who practice or use magicians. He hates Stannis, but he shows no such hatred for Robert. It's not because Stannis meddles with a sorceress that all Baratheons do. It's not because Egg performed the ritual at Summerhal that Varys expects other Targ descendants to do so. That said, all the people that Varys chose to raise Aegon are rational minds, not sorcery minded. And it should be clear that Varys truly supports Aegon over Dany. ANd then there's cognitive dissonance. Wildfire and dragons and dragon eggs are still material things or creatures, and that could give Varys enough rationalisation to ignore or excuse the magic behind it to create it.

Why choose to add it? It serves to show that Illyrio once was a handsome, lean young man with Valyrian like features, and thus can serve as potential evidence that he could father a son like Aegon. Just because Illyrio doesn't need to be Aegon's father, doesn't alter George's choice to plant the idea of Illyrio being Aegon's father in the reader's mind, with the statue as one of those seeds for it.

Basically it comes down for you to: "not good enough a motivation for me, I need more, hence insert..."

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15 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Except that Tyrion misses stuff too. He's smart, but he considers himself smarter than he often is. That's how people often manage to fool him. He completely misses the many clues that Haldon is a woman for example and he completely was snowed by Sansa. At other times he gets so paranoid that he doesn't believe people who are helping him. George uses suspicion and paranoia in POV to mislead the reader: see Brienne trusting the two hedge knights, but completely distrusting her guide into Crakclaw Point while the man was trustworthy. He does something similar with Tyrion towards characters that readers already suspect of being shady.

Varys despises individuals who practice or use magicians. He hates Stannis, but he shows no such hatred for Robert. It's not because Stannis meddles with a sorceress that all Baratheons do. It's not because Egg performed the ritual at Summerhal that Varys expects other Targ descendants to do so. That said, all the people that Varys chose to raise Aegon are rational minds, not sorcery minded. And it should be clear that Varys truly supports Aegon over Dany. ANd then there's cognitive dissonance. Wildfire and dragons and dragon eggs are still material things or creatures, and that could give Varys enough rationalisation to ignore or excuse the magic behind it to create it.

Why choose to add it? It serves to show that Illyrio once was a handsome, lean young man with Valyrian like features, and thus can serve as potential evidence that he could father a son like Aegon. Just because Illyrio doesn't need to be Aegon's father, doesn't alter George's choice to plant the idea of Illyrio being Aegon's father in the reader's mind, with the statue as one of those seeds for it.

Agree totally about Tyrion and it's why I love his rereads. But we get the same through Dany and Arya. Illyrio lies and we're reminded often to not trust him. And just because Tyrion misses some things some times, he also catches onto some things which others don't. What Tyrion misses is often closely connected to his biases.

For Varys, when you sign on with a family and put them in power, you don't get to choose who takes the throne and who doesn't, nor is it easy to toss them aside if someone who wasn't into woowoo stuff starts developing an interest. If you throw in with Targs/Blackfyres/dragons, you throw in with magic. You can't buy a bag of M&Ms with just the colors you like, you have to buy the whole thing. The dragons and eggs as material things doesn't work for me. All throughout the series, we have dragons tied to magic and Quaithe says the dragons coming back has strengthened other magic, too. It seems very unlikely that any of this was lost on Varys. And that doesn't explain his going along with Aerys and his pyromancer thing. Varys should have blown his top when Aerys named one as Hand, nor does it explain why Varys works with them still.

The possibility of Illyrio as Aegon's dad is served by the little boy's clothes, Illyrio wanting to see him and being disappointed and getting him his favorite candy. In more subtle ways, we get it with parallels between Myrcella and Aegon, and the sacrifice imagery and kinslaying talk which comes with it.  The statue is unnecessary for this purpose. It also doesn't explain the weird details surrounding the statue which at least at this point in the story, is without purpose.

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Chances are pretty high that George just used Rego Draz to give some Pentoshi such a death - he really likes the concept of having some rich fat guy losing the wealth he carries around in this way.

We can expect an interesting way for Illyrio to die, just as Lord Wyman is likely going to get a pretty good exit.

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4 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Haldon is a woman? I know it's not the topic of your thread, but inquiring minds and all, if you don't mind.

Here are some quotes to ponder on

First quote is when Tyrion meets Haldon and Duck. It's suggested that Tyrion rides along with Haldon on the same horse. Haldon tests Tyrion's wit and tries to offend him. Then Tyrion asks where whores go.

 
Quote

 

Haldon pursed his lips. "Try not to tumble off the horse. If you do, best waddle back to Pentos. Our shy maid will not wait for man nor dwarf."
"Shy maids are my favorite sort. Aside from wanton ones. Tell me, where do whores go?"
"Do I look like a man who frequents whores?"
Duck laughed derisively. "He don't dare. Lemore would make him pray for pardon, the lad would want to come along, and Griff might cut his cock off and stuff it down his throat."
"Well," said Tyrion, "a maester does not need a cock."
"Haldon's only half a maester, though."
"You seem to find the dwarf amusing, Duck," said Haldon. "He can ride with you." He wheeled his mount about. (aDwD, Tyrion III)

 

 
Haldon is not amused whatsoever by this exchange, and makes sure Tyrion rides with Duck, not with Haldon. Notice how Tyrion claims a maester doesn't need a cock, but the Citadel does not accept women to become maesters, only men, and so maesters do need cocks as evidence that they are men. It's then that Duck alerts us that Haldon is only half a maester, leading to the question: why is Haldon only half a maester? Can't be for the lack of known languages, reading, knowledge in math and history, even medicine. Haldon is as good as as any maester we've met so far. The Citadel doesn't approve of those meddling in magic, but Haldon is a perfect example of the student the Citadel would want: rational through and through, even in the face of the impossible. That doesn't leave much options anymore for why Haldon is only half a maester, and thus expelled from the Citadel. She pretended to be a man in order to study, but was found out. This secret about Haldon is not known to perhaps anyone on board the bark, except for Connington perhaps, or perhaps Lemore. Anyhow, Haldon refuses to take the nosy know-it-all Tyrion on the same horse, where he could risk discovering that Haldon has no cock.
 
How do girls pretending to be boys tend to be found out usually? Because of how they pee. Arya was advized to pee away from the men and boys traveling along with Yoren. There is a scene where Haldon pretends to be peeing off the boat like a man. But you may notice some details that Tyrion doesn't notice that reveal Haldon's only faking it.
 
 
Quote

 

When Ysilla turned her back, Tyrion snatched a biscuit off the brazier, darting away just in time to avoid a smack from her fearsome wooden spoon. They were best when eaten hot, dripping with honey and butter. The smell of the bacon cooking soon fetched Duck up from the hold. He sniffed over the brazier, received a swack from Ysilla's spoon, and went back to have his morning piss off the stern.
Tyrion waddled over to join him. "Now here's a sight to see," he quipped as they were emptying their bladders, "a dwarf and a duck, making the mighty Rhoyne that much mightier."
[...]
When the Halfmaester appeared on deck, yawning, the dwarf was writing down what he recalled concerning the mating habits of dragons, on which subject Barth, Munkun, and Thomax held markedly divergent views. Haldon stalked to the stern to piss down at the sun where it shimmered on the water, breaking apart with every puff of wind. "We should reach the junction with the Noyne by evening, Yollo," the Halfmaester called out.
Tyrion glanced up from his writing. "My name is Hugor. Yollo is hiding in my breeches. Shall I let him out to play?"
"Best not. You might frighten the turtles." Haldon's smile was as sharp as the blade of a dagger. "What did you tell me was the name of that street in Lannisport where you were born, Yollo?"
"It was an alley. It had no name." Tyrion took a mordant pleasure in inventing the details of the colorful life of Hugor Hill, also known as Yollo, a bastard out of Lannisport. The best lies are seasoned with a bit of truth. [...]
"I see you have been defacing more good parchment, Yollo." Haldon laced up his breeches. (aDwD, Tyrion IV)

 

 
So, Tyrion and Duck had a piss together at the stern. Haldon does it by himself, while Tyrion has his head deep in his writing and not paying much attention. While safely away from Tyrion, Haldon makes a point of getting Tyrion's attention so he notices that Haldon seems to be pissing off the boat. Meanwhile we get this little bit about puffs of wind. Now what should happen if a man pees against the wind? And a man would know not to pee against the wind. But Haldon does and there's no mishap? Well there wouldn't be if he is only pretending to pee.
The moment that Tyrion threatens to show his cock and join Haldon's side, Haldon immediately warns off Tyrion to come near and changes the subject to the lie that Tyrion is telling.
 
Now Tyrion has a feeling about Haldon, that he has a personal secret, and he gets Haldon to agree on a bet with the cyvasse to exchange secrets. Haldon reveals Aegon's identity, but it's not the personal secret that Haldon keeps. It is enough though to stop Tyrion from investigating further, though he still wonders at times. 
 
Haldon is clean shaven, has ascetic features and long hair tied into a knot behind his head. These are physical features that match a woman's.
 
So, euhm, yeah, Haldon's personal secret is that he's not a man, but a woman. Once you know this, the following remark becomes euhm ironic
Quote


"It's worse than that, you bugger," said Franklyn Flowers. "They knighted me as well." He clasped Griff by the forearm, pulled him into a bone-crushing hug. "You look awful, even for a man's been dead a dozen years. Blue hair, is it? When Harry said you'd be turning up, I almost shit myself. And Haldon, you icy cunt, good to see you too. Still have that stick up your arse?"  (aDwD, The Lost Lord)


 

 

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1 hour ago, The Piper Report said:

Can you explain to me what this statue is that you two keep referring too?  I can't remember anything about a statue in the books??

There's a statue of a young, atheltic handsome man in Illyrio's garden of his mansion. Tyrion sees it in his first chapter when he makes his tour around the mansion, and Illyrio claims it is a likenness made by some michelangelo like famous sculpter who made it when he was 16.

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17 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I do. And it's not necessarily because Illyrio is a corsair or anything like that. I think it's easier for him to pay corsairs to take him where he wants without fear of falling between their hands.

Cherish that thought, my fat friend. One day we will carve those words upon your crypt. "We should be aboard that galley," the dwarf said. "The fastest way to Volantis is by sea."

"The sea is hazardous," replied Illyrio. "Autumn is a season rife with storms, and pirates still make their dens upon the Stepstones and venture forth to prey on honest men. It would never do for my little friend to fall into such hands."

I think Illyrio was headed to Volantis because traveling by sea is still the quickest way to get there. He was traveling incognito (or as incognito as a man with his size can manage) after dropping Tyrion off with Duck and Haldon to see Triarch Nyessos. He was paying him off to stay out of the war against Meereen and Dany and something went very wrong there. The guy Illyrio was trying to buy off is the one who has turned his back on him and doing exactly what Illyrio did not want him to do. We don't really know if Nyessos ever received his bribes, but I think it's a minor detail that might be important. The obvious reason Nyessos might have turned his cloak is because the Yunkishmen could have just paid him more than Illyrio did. I just think there might be more to this.
 
I also think that the Tattered Prince is the Blackfyre (which you know, irony since he and Barry might end up working together to take Pentos) and I think that Elia is Septa Lemore, so you know, it's all very tenuous at best.

Okay, I see your argument. Tyrion points out they could sail by cog to Mereen if he wants to help, the cog that delivered him to Illyrio. Illyrio then explains its already on its way to Asshai, and the perils of a sea voyage during the autumn season: storms and pirates at Stepstones. Of course, Illyrio has plenty of cogs and could have sailed off afterwards, but I don't see why he would go in person to pay off Nyessos himself. He does most of his dealings with known captains of ships, full of spices, tapestries, precious stones, wine. I do think you are possibly correct in pointing out something quite obvious went wrong with the bribery of Nyessos.

I think you are suggesting the following scenario: when Illyrio returned from sending Tyrion off, he learned that his ships full of bribery went missing or had been captured, and so he sent fast ships to Volantis to assure the deal and traveled along himself to convince Nyessos he had been in good faith. But since there were many pirates at the Stepstones, he pretended his ship was a pirate ship or he traveled on a pirate ship. And since he used to be a braavo he joined them in their piracy. And so, Quentyn saw Illyrio killed and his rings taken. Am I correct in this interpretation?

It's a somewhat conceivable idea, and aDwD is rather subtle, such as Arya's chapter where she learns about the pirates having gotten slaves from north of the Wall, and that this possibly is the info that Tycho knew when he set sail for Eastwatch and why he so easily agreed to lend his ships to the NW to save the wildlings. Arya's chapter seems to come too late for that, but it appears that the orders of some chapters altered between the final edit and the published version, and thus got misplaced in the timeline. Tyrion thinks of Illyrio as fat and immobile, and Illyrio certainly wants Tyrion to think so, but Arya noticed he walked like a waterdancer. And if he washes out the dye out of his hair (or uses green or blue or purple dye) he could blend in with other pirates.

However, I would expect a little more evidence from George that this was indeed Illyrio. At the very least I'd expect him to identify the stones of the rings. Even if I'm expecting George to kill him without giving us more information on Illyrio's motives and origin, I still expect him to kill him off with the reader knowing it's Illyrio. And I still find it hard to believe Illyrio would delay his presumed voyage to Volantis and risk his deal with Nyessos by playing at corsair and attack another ship. So, I'm more inclined to believe the passage in Quentyn's chapter serves as a foreshadowing parallel, rather than the actual event. How else are we to ever learn that he's dead? Let's say the Tattered Prince conquers Pentos, either with Selmy, Tyrion or Dany as POV, and one of them visits Illyrio's mansion, we could discover his mansion abandoned or taken by squatters, and even if there still was a servant to tell them that Illyrio had left ages ago for Volantis, that would not settle his fate much. Most readers would keep wondering where Illyrio is until the end of aDoS, never realizing he died in Quentyn's first chapter in aDwD. That's a bit too subtle for me. 

 

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11 hours ago, Lollygag said:

I think we were only given part of the story on Bran with the rest to come later. The explanation for Jon's death was straight forward and satisfactory in itself, but for Bran, we got speculation, interweaving, assumptions...parts are still being hidden.

Hmmm, I actually doubt we'll get more on the catspaw. It wasn't that important, just the necessary plot point to drive Catelyn off to KL to make Ned even distrust Robert and for her to capture Tyrion. We know who paid the catspaw, and how Joffrey got the dagger and why (to impress either Cersei or Robert). Yes it was based on POV assumptions, interweaving and speculation, but no need to rehash it. If we ever see anything about it from Bran's POV I doubt it'll be anything more than seeing Joffrey hand the silver and dagger to the catspaw beside the weirwood of Winterfell. And George could have done that in aDwD 2 books after he resolved the issue already in aSoS. I don't see what Bran would gain out of it, nor the future story.

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9 hours ago, Lollygag said:

This part was added after I started to reply.

I don’t agree with this interpretation. If you’re right, it’s bad writing as I and most take this for a lie on Illyrio’s part. Add in Tyrion's skepticism of Illyrio in general and here, Varys' backstory not adding up, Dany portraying Illyrio as slimy and skeevy, seeing Illyrio all plotty through Arya, it points to Illyrio being caught in a lie/mistake and trying to cover it up.

 

 

I disagree that Varys and Illyrio are outright liars. They lie through omission, saying only partial truths and leaving stuff out, and it's imo bad writing when the sole tidbits of background info we do get on both of these characters are outright lies. Even Illyrio's claim that Young Griff is Griff's son is not a complete lie. He simply ommits the fact that Aegon is Connington's foster son.

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5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I think you are suggesting the following scenario: when Illyrio returned from sending Tyrion off, he learned that his ships full of bribery went missing or had been captured, and so he sent fast ships to Volantis to assure the deal and traveled along himself to convince Nyessos he had been in good faith. But since there were many pirates at the Stepstones, he pretended his ship was a pirate ship or he traveled on a pirate ship. And since he used to be a braavo he joined them in their piracy. And so, Quentyn saw Illyrio killed and his rings taken. Am I correct in this interpretation?

I think he was using the ship in the same way notorious pirate Salladhor Saan's ships are used. Stannis uses them to transport his men for the most part and Davos uses one of his ships to spirit Edric Storm away from Dragonstone. I think Illyrio could have hired the ship to take him to Volantis, the crew of the ship attacks the Meadowlark off the Disputed Lands thinking it will be an easy target, except it isn't. Illyrio becomes caught in that and is killed in the process.

I think the reason he may have decided to Volantis, if he indeed did take a ship to go there, is because of the meeting that was summoned by the Prince of Pentos just as Tyrion arrived. Illyrio tells him that Astapor and Meereen have both fallen, which we already knew. I think there's a good chance he found out something more when he returned to Pentos, like a Triarch who is up for reelection is being courted by the Yunkishmen to join them in their war against Dany and he promptly leaves to meet with him. 

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15 hours ago, The Piper Report said:

Can you explain to me what this statue is that you two keep referring too?  I can't remember anything about a statue in the books??

It's the statue that Illyrio has in his courtyard. He claims it's of himself when he was younger, but many believe it to be Aegon. There's loads of Northern imagery around it for some reason.

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/151843-the-illyrioaegon-thing/&do=findComment&comment=8264991

The reason I lean towards it being Aegon is that he also has Northern imagery around him. @sweetsunray just pointed out more that I hadn't noticed in Haldon who is grey-eyed and icy.

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/151843-the-illyrioaegon-thing/&do=findComment&comment=8258965

 

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11 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Hmmm, I actually doubt we'll get more on the catspaw. It wasn't that important, just the necessary plot point to drive Catelyn off to KL to make Ned even distrust Robert and for her to capture Tyrion. We know who paid the catspaw, and how Joffrey got the dagger and why (to impress either Cersei or Robert). Yes it was based on POV assumptions, interweaving and speculation, but no need to rehash it. If we ever see anything about it from Bran's POV I doubt it'll be anything more than seeing Joffrey hand the silver and dagger to the catspaw beside the weirwood of Winterfell. And George could have done that in aDwD 2 books after he resolved the issue already in aSoS. I don't see what Bran would gain out of it, nor the future story. 

I disagree that it's not important. It falls apart at the character level at the most simple level and that's such an important part of the novels. For all of the hullabaloo about fantasy, games, magic and whatnot, it's actually the character writing which makes it all work and endure. Joff killed Bran for Robert, but when Tyrion consoles Joff on his loss in KL, Joff forgets Robert is dead. Also, Joff is consistently portrayed as an idiot. Nope.

Lots of possibilities, but Mance was at Winterfell at the time, he needed the Wildlings south of the Wall, the Starks were a huge, huge problem for that, he sees that helping Joff to do what Joff wanted to do will help to accomplish getting the Starks south and away from the Wall. As Mance is at Winterfell for mysterious reasons, this would be quite spoilery, hence why we only got part of the story.

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11 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I disagree that Varys and Illyrio are outright liars. They lie through omission, saying only partial truths and leaving stuff out, and it's imo bad writing when the sole tidbits of background info we do get on both of these characters are outright lies. Even Illyrio's claim that Young Griff is Griff's son is not a complete lie. He simply ommits the fact that Aegon is Connington's foster son.

I've seen this said around before and have never seen anything to convince me of it. It can't both be true that Varys supports the Targs/Blackfyres/dragons/pyromancers and he has such hatred of magic as he claims to Tyrion. Also, the author keeps bring up the eunuch's voice dropping knowing exactly what that implies. 

And in my opinion, that is a complete lie. By that logic, anyone can claim to babysit Aegon for the briefest time and validly claim to be his parent as he is his parent in a temporary sense. Illyrio knew what Tyrion would believe would be untrue and that's what he set him up to believe. A lie is distinguished by the intent to deceive. It's what distinguishes it from simply relaying something which is not true by some sort of honest mistake with no intent to deceive.

I highly doubt anyone finding out the truth behind Varys' and Illyrio's words will feel anything but deceived and betrayed and that is the intent of a lie.

lie

intransitive verb

1 : to make an untrue statement with intent to deceive She was lying when she said she didn't break the vase. He lied about his past experience.

2 : to create a false or misleading impression Statistics sometimes lie. The mirror never lies.

 

****Adding****

If personal definitions of lies differ, I think GRRM is very, very clear as to his own definition of it. Varys and Illyrio lie.

AGOT Sansa I

Once, when she was littler, Sansa had even asked Mother if perhaps there hadn't been some mistake. Perhaps the grumkins had stolen her real sister. But Mother had only laughed and said no, Arya was her daughter and Sansa's trueborn sister, blood of their blood. Sansa could not think why Mother would want to lie about it, so she supposed it had to be true.

 

AGOT Sansa II

Sandor Clegane snarled at her. "Spare me your empty little compliments, girl … and your ser's. I am no knight. I spit on them and their vows. My brother is a knight. Did you see him ride today?"

"Yes," Sansa whispered, trembling. "He was …"

"Gallant?" the Hound finished.

He was mocking her, she realized. "No one could withstand him," she managed at last, proud of herself. It was no lie.

 

ACOK Sansa II

"I like dogs better than knights. My father's father was kennelmaster at the Rock. One autumn year, Lord Tytos came between a lioness and her prey. The lioness didn't give a shit that she was Lannister's own sigil. Bitch tore into my lord's horse and would have done for my lord too, but my grandfather came up with the hounds. Three of his dogs died running her off. My grandfather lost a leg, so Lannister paid him for it with lands and a towerhouse, and took his son to squire. The three dogs on our banner are the three that died, in the yellow of autumn grass. A hound will die for you, but never lie to you. And he'll look you straight in the face." He cupped her under the jaw, raising her chin, his fingers pinching her painfully. "And that's more than little birds can do, isn't it? I never got my song."

ACOK Sansa II

Sandor Clegane snorted. "Pretty thing, and such a bad liar. A dog can smell a lie, you know. Look around you, and take a good whiff. They're all liars here . . . and every one better than you."

AFFC Sansa II

"I will." He cuddled close and laid his head between her breasts. "Alayne? Are you my mother now?"

"I suppose I am," she said. If a lie was kindly meant, there was no harm in it. 

 

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It would be more clever writing to in the end find out that Illyrio and Varys were such wonderfully perfect wordsmiths as to go decades and never have need of an “outright” lie to any of the great many people they've encountered over said decades. But at a character level, at a realistic level, it’s impossible to do what these characters do for this amount of time, deceiving and manipulating so many at a time and for decades in some cases, and not “outright” lie sometimes.

And lying is the whole point. It’s the Game of Thrones. KL is a bunch of liars and schemers and climbers. Lying is part of the Game. It would be better plot writing if they didn’t lie, but it would be grotesquely awful and unrealistic character writing if they didn’t.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/homo-consumericus/201111/how-often-do-people-lie-in-their-daily-lives

 

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