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UK Politics: Deal, or No Deal. To May and Beyond.


A Horse Named Stranger

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Thanks.  I shall just make myself comfy on the woolsack, shall I?

BTW. there's an in-depth report tomorrow morning on the NPR network's "Morning Edition" of all the ways Russia has attacked internally and externally every nation in NATO.

https://www.npr.org/programs/morning-edition/?

Putin etc. have fully allied themselves and support the white supremacy, anti-democracy, anti-public safety net movements throughout Europe and the US, providing funds and propaganda -- which it heavily funds too.  Here, for instance, it funneled a lot of moola into the NRA, which then basically funded the 2016 Republican Convention.  It's doing this sort of thing throughout the NATO and Euro nations, and has been for quite some years.  Steve Bannon's been up in it to his bald spot for years.

It's rather astounding how many Brits and USians are standing up in support of Russia, showing themselves as bigly saps as the orange nazi and his family members -- and o ya, and Saudi's part of this too, going back at least to the first Bush.

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Is there any evidence that Russian interference has had any real effect or is the cause of these events? Personally I think it’s far too simplistic an answer no matter how advantageous it is for Putin. 

 

Anyway, more conspiracy: Rumours are that the 48 letters of no confidence are in, and it’s looking worse for May by the minute.

 

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O put a sock in it. No one cares about the Russians except the most extreme swivel-eyed Remainers. The constant accusations of collusion with Russia have disfigured the American politics thread; we don't want that here. 

Of far more importance to the UK is whether the PM's Brexit deal 1) delivers on the promises of the referendum and 2) whether it promotes the national interest, not whether the Russians slipped Aaron Banks a few million pounds. For all those of us who have now decided that it does neither the hostility of the hardline Brexiteers to the deal absolves us of the need to pay fealty to the 'will of the people,' as expressed in 2016.

We need a second referendum. But we need Jeremy Corbyn to deliver it, and as he is almost singularly stupid and useless things are not looking good.

Also of note, the rumour around Westminster is that the 48 letters are in. Believe it when you see it of course, but apparently Sir Graham has asked to see T May tomorrow. 

 

 

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While Russia's actions disrupting western elections is important to emphasize and combat, I agree that this is getting a bit Red Scare-ish.  The UK's problems are of their own making, just as Trump was America's (with a key assist from James Comey).

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This is hilarious: The Mission, should you accept it, is to build a submarine made of cheese.  May accepted The Mission to build a submarine made of cheese because she wanted to be Prime Minister.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

O put a sock in it. No one cares about the Russians except the most extreme swivel-eyed Remainers.

I predict this remark will not age well.

Anyway, the leadership challenge is now officially on.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739

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Now we just need someone who's willing to take on the role, and preferably someone competent - otherwise this is just a meaningless gesture that means she can't be challenged for another 12 months.

My bet is on meaningless gesture, quite honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if she's unopposed for the challenge.

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This is the moment your entire political class turns into reality TV contestants. There's no going back. Once they get a taste, it's all politicians and the hacks who cover them are going to want for the rest of time. And with a whole PMQs scheduled and this Brexit thing as a subplot the spectacle is going to be *kissing fingers motion*.

From the Antipodes, buon appetit!

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I feel that Corbyn may have missed the boat here. He was urged to move no-confidence in the government yesterday by the SNP and Lib Dems, but didn't: Labour supporters were all sagely nodding that this was not yet the right moment. Now, if May wins the party confidence vote, her position is likely reinforced: and if she loses, we have another month before we even know who the new leader is, and they will probably also have a stronger position than May had yesterday. Unless Corbyn gets very lucky, and May scrapes through by a single vote or something, I think he's fucked this one up.

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Most Tory MPs seem to be backing May (publicly at least).  

Davis is a likely contender tonstand if she loses, claiming he has a great deal ready. Pity he wasn't made Brexit Minister two years ago, and all this would have been sorted...

Oh, wait...

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2 hours ago, mormont said:

I feel that Corbyn may have missed the boat here. He was urged to move no-confidence in the government yesterday by the SNP and Lib Dems, but didn't: Labour supporters were all sagely nodding that this was not yet the right moment.

Cos they hadn't prised away the DUP, no? Without whom a confidence vote was going to fail.
 

Quote

Now, if May wins the party confidence vote, her position is likely reinforced: and if she loses, we have another month before we even know who the new leader is, and they will probably also have a stronger position than May had yesterday. Unless Corbyn gets very lucky, and May scrapes through by a single vote or something, I think he's fucked this one up.

The margin might be pyrrhic, but even if it isn't, it's unlikely to be large enough to stave off a big loss whenever she puts her plan to parliament, and when that happens she'll again be in a hopeless cul-de-sac. A victory today is almost certainly going reflect the absence of confidence in alternatives to her incumbency, not its renewed credibility.

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2 hours ago, mormont said:

I feel that Corbyn may have missed the boat here. He was urged to move no-confidence in the government yesterday by the SNP and Lib Dems, but didn't: Labour supporters were all sagely nodding that this was not yet the right moment. Now, if May wins the party confidence vote, her position is likely reinforced: and if she loses, we have another month before we even know who the new leader is, and they will probably also have a stronger position than May had yesterday. Unless Corbyn gets very lucky, and May scrapes through by a single vote or something, I think he's fucked this one up.

That was pretty much my thinking. It’s like bad comedy, ‘you wanna go no confidence? No? Ok, we will. What do you know, turns out we have confidence after all.’

10 minutes ago, Horza said:

The margin might be pyrrhic, but even if it isn't, it's unlikely to be large enough to stave off a big loss whenever she puts her plan to parliament, and when that happens she'll again be in a hopeless cul-de-sac. A victory today is almost certainly going reflect the absence of confidence in alternatives to her incumbency, not its renewed credibility.

If it goes like that though it enforces the thinking they’re trying to get across, that something is better than nothing.  Personally I hope she loses, not because I enjoy the chaos but because that’s the fair result.

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