Fake Aegon, Real Aegon, and Quentyn Martell

[sweetsunray]

3 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

I'm not trying to convince YOU.  Have a nice day.

I'm not "people", just one of many. But indeed have a nice day. 

[Dorian Martell's son]

On 12/13/2018 at 6:35 PM, divica said:

There is also the statue that ilirio has of himself that he says is him when he was young. Some forum denizens believe for no reason other than an assumption that is it really (f)Aegon in his house. When you combine this with his   strange affection he has for faegon, the fact he and varys have been training and supporting him to be king… why would illyrio support a baby? we are talking about a 15 to 20 year plan! Also his eyes are light purple instead of deep purple...

I fixed it for you, removed the assumptions and weasel words and put it realistically. The answer to affection is simple. (f)Aegon spent his earliest years at Fatty's manse. Fatty McFatterton has always wanted to be a family man, but his true love was killed by disease and he never found love again. So, here was a child, and he, over the course of years developed great affection for the child, like that of a parent. He was not able to train the child martially, or in the ways of the 7, so that had to be given to JonCon. Now, some folks cannot see a reason to support someone for two decades other than fatty being Daemon's heir. That is reasonable, but proof is not there in any way. Only assumptions and interpretations.

On 12/13/2018 at 6:35 PM, divica said:

There are a lot of things that support that Aegon might be fake. I would say much more support that he is fake than otherwise.

 There are questions. But not support.  That is the whole point of a mystery. Who is this boy who claims to be royalty and the children of the mad king's firstborn.

On 12/13/2018 at 6:35 PM, divica said:

ps having something like the chinese dragons in new years eve and a standard are very diferent things

Yes they are, but the description that george gave us was intentionally vague. Vague enough that it could be a whole host of different things. It is only the readers with they presuppositions that lack the perspective to see more than one. 

[Platypus Rex]

On ‎12‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 9:35 PM, divica said:

There is also the statue that ilirio has of faegon in his house (he says it is he when he was young), the strange afection he has for faegon, the fact he and varys have been training and suporting him to be king… why would illyrio support a baby? we are talking about a 15 to 20 year plan! Also his eyes are light purple instead of deep purple...

There are a lot of things that support that Aegon might be fake. I would say much more support that he is fake than otherwise.

ps having something like the chinese dragons in new years eve and a standard are very diferent things

While I don't claim to be certain what "mummer's dragon" means, I have yet to see an alternate explanation that feels compelling to me.  "Fake Aegon" seems, at least, plausible.  Nothing else does.  So I do count it as a point in favor of Aegon being fake.  Not absolute proof.  Just a point worth mentioning.

Of course, then there is Dany's HOTU vision, where she learns that Aegon is the Prince that was Promised, who has a Song, which is the Song of Ice and Fire, and who is one of the 3 Heads of the Dragon.   And then I look at this spoiled brat, traveling around with his nannies, who throws tantrums when he loses at chess, and I say to myself "Nope, that's not him."  Call that subjective, if you like.

But I suppose many who believe Young Griff is the real Aegon, also believe that Rhaegar was wrong about him.

[divica]

43 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

I fixed it for you, removed the assumptions and weasel words and put it realistically. The answer to affection is simple. (f)Aegon spent his earliest years at Fatty's manse. Fatty McFatterton has always wanted to be a family man, but his true love was killed by disease and he never found love again. So, here was a child, and he, over the course of years developed great affection for the child, like that of a parent. He was not able to train the child martially, or in the ways of the 7, so that had to be given to JonCon. Now, some folks cannot see a reason to support someone for two decades other than fatty being Daemon's heir. That is reasonable, but proof is not there in any way. Only assumptions and interpretations.

I have no idea how long danny and viserys lived with illyrio but we are talking about a dude that was ok to marry a 13 (?) year old girl to a dothriaki and use her as a pawn to further his goals. It hardly seems like a man that cares about children… And faegon lived with jon con since he was 5 if I am not mistaken. It is kind of hard for someone to form such deep attachment in 3 or 4 years...

So yes, I would say illyrio does have a strange afection for Aegon, that the eyes have diferent color, that the golden company broke a contract in order to support him (strong blackfyre supporters supporting a targ…), the fact that illyrio (a man from essos) has supported Aegon for all this years, why varys would take him out the city and help him for years… There are a lot of strange facts about Aegon!

1 hour ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

 There are questions. But not support.  That is the whole point of a mystery. Who is this boy who claims to be royalty and the children of the mad king's firstborn.

The only thing that faegon has that supports him as being the real Aegon is the story about how varys took him out the city. Nearly everything else we learn about fAegon supports that something else might be going on and that he might be a fake.

 

[divica]

1 hour ago, Platypus Rex said:

While I don't claim to be certain what "mummer's dragon" means, I have yet to see an alternate explanation that feels compelling to me.  "Fake Aegon" seems, at least, plausible.  Nothing else does.  So I do count it as a point in favor of Aegon being fake.  Not absolute proof.  Just a point worth mentioning.

Of course, then there is Dany's HOTU vision, where she learns that Aegon is the Prince that was Promised, who has a Song, which is the Song of Ice and Fire, and who is one of the 3 Heads of the Dragon.   And then I look at this spoiled brat, traveling around with his nannies, who throws tantrums when he loses at chess, and I say to myself "Nope, that's not him."  Call that subjective, if you like.

But I suppose many who believe Young Griff is the real Aegon, also believe that Rhaegar was wrong about him.

Not only that but what was the point of introducing all the blackfyre drama if it never appear in the main story?

And it is hard to believe that the ptwp was introduced on the 5th book and doesn t even have his own pov… Besides, things seem that they will go too well for faegon for him to end up having a happy ending...

[Dorian Martell's son]

3 hours ago, divica said:

I have no idea how long danny and viserys lived with illyrio but we are talking about a dude that was ok to marry a 13 (?) year old girl to a dothriaki and use her as a pawn to further his goals. It hardly seems like a man that cares about children…

Dany was a meek girl fatty had known for 6 months. Viserys was a spiteful, entitled piece of crap with no value but his last name. To quote No-Junk McGee:
"Aegon has been shaped for rule before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them"

17 hours ago, divica said:

And faegon lived with jon con since he was 5 if I am not mistaken. It is kind of hard for someone to form such deep attachment in 3 or 4 years...

4 years is enough to see a baby grow into a small person. I am sure he saw him occasionally over the years as almost any grandparent would  

19 hours ago, divica said:

So yes, I would say illyrio does have a strange afection for Aegon, that the eyes have diferent color, that the golden company broke a contract in order to support him (strong blackfyre supporters supporting a targ…), the fact that illyrio (a man from essos) has supported Aegon for all this years, why varys would take him out the city and help him for years… There are a lot of strange facts about Aegon!

Lots of targs have different colored eyes. Especially with an inbred dad and a dornish mom. The GC breaking a contract would seem strange, but (f)Aegon is their ticket home. They have also been planning this for 15 years or more. And remember, the last blackfyre died 40 years ago, or 25 years before Aegon was born. They may have been founded to support the bastardfyres, but after a couple of decades without that mission, fighting and going home is all they would have. As for Illyrio and Varys, Fatty is loyal to his junkless friend that made him one of the richest men on the continent. He has the resources to buy off khalisars and triarchs. supporting a kid and a few adults for 15 years is nothing. Varys is also loyal.   When varys worked for Aerys he worked diligently for him, and when he died, Varys worked diligently to put his heir on the IT.   Again, those aren't strange facts, they are just seized upon by the BF theory supporters. 

19 hours ago, divica said:

The only thing that faegon has that supports him as being the real Aegon is the story about how varys took him out the city. Nearly everything else we learn about fAegon supports that something else might be going on and that he might be a fake.

Wrong again. (f)Aegon is being raised by  a man who was in love with his father. Not to get too crude but JonCon probably had memorized every inch of Rhaegar and thought about him lots when engaging in self pleasure. What you are talking about is called confirmation bias. People who want him to be fake see it in everything.

[corbon]

21 hours ago, divica said:

I have no idea how long danny and viserys lived with illyrio but we are talking about a dude that was ok to marry a 13 (?) year old girl to a dothriaki and use her as a pawn to further his goals. It hardly seems like a man that cares about children…

Not caring about Dany especially does not mean he doesn't care about Young Griff.

21 hours ago, divica said:

And faegon lived with jon con since he was 5 if I am not mistaken. It is kind of hard for someone to form such deep attachment in 3 or 4 years...

I may be wrong, I've been looking for the relevant text and can't find it...
My recollection is he was introduced to JonCon at around the age of 5 and became his ward, but was too young to join JonCon in the Golden Company at that time and remained at Illyrio's under the care of Lemore, though now as JonCon's son. I have the age of 10 in mind for when he joined JonCon, but as I say, I can't find any reference either way at the moment.

ETA: A supporting reference is the clothes that Tyrion was given at Illyrio's. Surely an older child than 5.

21 hours ago, divica said:

that the eyes have diferent color,

All the Targ's have different variations of purple. Dany's shade (indigo) is different to Rhaegar's (violet) and Viserys' (lilac). The three siblings of the previous generation can't all have the same shade as their father, so why should the next generation match exactly?

21 hours ago, divica said:

that the golden company broke a contract in order to support him (strong blackfyre supporters supporting a targ…)

The Golden company are not what they once were. Some (Harry Strickland for example) are now the 4th generation of exiles. It is explicitly stated in the text that what they want now is a chance to go home to Westeros, to win Lands and Castles instead of being homeless exiles. A Targaryen or a Blackfyre makes zero difference to them now - especially given that there are no Blackfyres left. A dragon is a dragon...
Note also that Harry Strickland (according to the wiki) didn't tell say no to the Yunkish offer to break contract with Myr and join the fight against Dany because he didn't think his men would take it well - more evidence that the company is not the same as it once was.

21 hours ago, divica said:

The only thing that faegon has that supports him as being the real Aegon is the story about how varys took him out the city. Nearly everything else we learn about fAegon supports that something else might be going on and that he might be a fake.

He has the look, the right age, and the right connections. Lemore is key. She's clearly a westerosi noblewoman. If she is Ashara Dayne (which is by far the strongest theory, with many connecting data points and only the not-mentioned eye colour as not-evidence) then that's a massive connection - his mother's handmaid, his father's best friend's sister, and Jon Con as another of his father's companions.
Note that if Lemore is Ashara, that still doesn't rule out the Pisswater prince (or any other early substitution) scenario as Ashara wouldn't have been with Aegon for most of his very young life actually (at the time she would have received him from Varys), having been disgraced and had to go off for her own pregnancy. So she could easily have been fooled by Varys, but appear to the Westerosi as a very very convincing witness.

 

[divica]

11 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Dany was a meek girl fatty had known for 6 months. Viserys was a spiteful, entitled piece of crap with no value but his last name. To quote No-Junk McGee:

4 years is enough to see a baby grow into a small person. I am sure he saw him occasionally over the years as almost any grandparent would  

Danny was a shy, beautiful girl that was abused by her brother. Any grandparent person would feel some afection for her… Our big great softy illyrio sold her to a dothriaki to be raped daily… we are clearly in the presence of a person that cares about children…

And I don t think illyrio would spend a lot of time with a baby or 3/4 year old child… He has no reason to do it when he has lots of people that can take of the child.

27 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Lots of targs have different colored eyes. Especially with an inbred dad and a dornish mom. The GC breaking a contract would seem strange, but (f)Aegon is their ticket home. They have also been planning this for 15 years or more. And remember, the last blackfyre died 40 years ago, or 25 years before Aegon was born. They may have been founded to support the bastardfyres, but after a couple of decades without that mission, fighting and going home is all they would have. As for Illyrio and Varys, Fatty is loyal to his junkless friend that made him one of the richest men on the continent. He has the resources to buy off khalisars and triarchs. supporting a kid and a few adults for 15 years is nothing. Varys is also loyal.   When varys worked for Aerys he worked diligently for him, and when he died, Varys worked diligently to put his heir on the IT.   Again, those aren't strange facts, they are just seized upon by the BF theory supporters. 

I have no idea if it is normal for sons to have eyes with a diferent purple color than either parent. But it is a fact that jon com points out that he has diferente eyes.

The GC breaking a contract and supporting a targ is breaking almost everything that bittersteal made the company stand for. And the company hasn t been plannig this for 20 years because the whole company only found out about Aegon recently… In adition, you forgeting the line that some contracts are written in blood when tyrion asked about why the GC would break a contract. 

And if varys cared all that much about the targs what has he done for viserys? he could have had his buddy support viserys since they were in essos. Instead he let him and danny suffer until they needed them! Varys clearly isn t a loyal targ supporter...

37 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Wrong again. (f)Aegon is being raised by  a man who was in love with his father. Not to get too crude but JonCon probably had memorized every inch of Rhaegar and thought about him lots when engaging in self pleasure. What you are talking about is called confirmation bias. People who want him to be fake see it in everything.

How does jon com loving rhaegar influence if Aegon is a targ? As long as they presented jon con with a valyrian baby why would jon con ever think that the baby isn t Aegon? Kids are equal to their parents (look at robb and ned). They have some similarities!

The fact that varys chose jon con ( a man that lost the love of his life and had no reason to live) instead of doran that had connection and armies capable of supporting Aegon but that would be doubtful about varys story once again shows how fragile the whole faegon is Aegon story is!

[divica]

11 minutes ago, corbon said:

Not caring about Dany especially does not mean he doesn't care about Young Griff.

I may be wrong, I've been looking for the relevant text and can't find it...
My recollection is he was introduced to JonCon at around the age of 5 and became his ward, but was too young to join JonCon in the Golden Company at that time and remained at Illyrio's under the care of Lemore, though now as JonCon's son. I have the age of 10 in mind for when he joined JonCon, but as I say, I can't find any reference either way at the moment.

ETA: A supporting reference is the clothes that Tyrion was given at Illyrio's. Surely an older child than 5.

Not caring about danny doesn t mean he doesn t care about faegon. However it does support that it is less likely that he would care about faegon if he was rhaegar's son. After all illyrio wouldn t be the one taking care of a baby. It would be his slaves…. On the other hand he actually talks and gets to know danny.

Jon con left the GC after 5 years so he has been with Aegon since then. And taking into account varys speach then faegon hasn t lived with illyrio for long because he doesn t think like the rich nobles and has lived among the smallfolk.

16 minutes ago, corbon said:

All the Targ's have different variations of purple. Dany's shade (indigo) is different to Rhaegar's (violet) and Viserys' (lilac). The three siblings of the previous generation can't all have the same shade as their father, so why should the next generation match exactly?

The Golden company are not what they once were. Some (Harry Strickland for example) are now the 4th generation of exiles. It is explicitly stated in the text that what they want now is a chance to go home to Westeros, to win Lands and Castles instead of being homeless exiles. A Targaryen or a Blackfyre makes zero difference to them now - especially given that there are no Blackfyres left. A dragon is a dragon...
Note also that Harry Strickland (according to the wiki) didn't tell say no to the Yunkish offer to break contract with Myr and join the fight against Dany because he didn't think his men would take it well - more evidence that the company is not the same as it once was.

I am pretty sure you have the eye colors wrong. Rhaegar has indigo eyes while danny and viserys have similar violet eyes… (I am considering indigo as deep purple and violet as light purple). And what I was sugesting is that aerys had indigo eyes and rhaella violet eyes (or vice versa) and that therefore the eye color was inherited. But that is kind of a minor detail. The importante fact is that fAegon's eyes are of a diferente collor than rhaegar's. It might mean something or nothing… But if his eyes were indigo then it would support that he is the real Aegon.

That wiki says Harry didn t imediatly refuse the yunkish proposal so that his men didn t think he was crazy because the proposal was very good. I think it gives the oposite idea you trying to pass, but I didn t understand your sentence "didn't tell say no to the Yunkish offer to break contract with Myr and join the fight against Dany because he didn't think his men would take it well".

And the point about the GC is that why would they support faegon and not viserys or why no one in a company that has a great history against targs oposes suporting Aegon or what does illyrio mean that some contracts are written in blood when he talks about why the GC broke a contract.

1 hour ago, corbon said:

He has the look, the right age, and the right connections. Lemore is key. She's clearly a westerosi noblewoman. If she is Ashara Dayne (which is by far the strongest theory, with many connecting data points and only the not-mentioned eye colour as not-evidence) then that's a massive connection - his mother's handmaid, his father's best friend's sister, and Jon Con as another of his father's companions.

Note that if Lemore is Ashara, that still doesn't rule out the Pisswater prince (or any other early substitution) scenario as Ashara wouldn't have been with Aegon for most of his very young life actually (at the time she would have received him from Varys), having been disgraced and had to go off for her own pregnancy. So she could easily have been fooled by Varys, but appear to the Westerosi as a very very convincing witness.

 

Ok, he obviously he looks valyrian and has the right age otherwise it would be a stupid scheme...

And I have no idea what connections there are to point Lemore is ashara besides that lemore is pretty and was once pregnant. However, there is a big motive for her not being ashara. She would have told Aegon and jon con about jon snow. Besides if ashara had become a septa there is no reason to fake her death...

[corbon]

2 hours ago, divica said:

Not caring about danny doesn t mean he doesn t care about faegon. However it does support that it is less likely that he would care about faegon if he was rhaegar's son. After all illyrio wouldn t be the one taking care of a baby. It would be his slaves…. On the other hand he actually talks and gets to know danny.

Illyrio knew the boy, not just the baby. He has the boy's clothes from Young Griff that are given to Tyrion and remembers the boy liking certain foods.

I would say its a lot easier to to become affectionate for a small lone boy growing from age 2-7 than for a sad little girl who is very much second fiddle to her older, not very endearing, brother. 

2 hours ago, divica said:

Jon con left the GC after 5 years so he has been with Aegon since then. And taking into account varys speach then faegon hasn t lived with illyrio for long because he doesn t think like the rich nobles and has lived among the smallfolk.

JonCon spent 5 years with the GC, yes. That doesn't mean he was with Aegon immediately since then. He had to establish his decline and death. Plus Aegon was already at least a year old, probably closer to two, by the time he reached Essos. So even by your reckoning he is 6-7 or more years old, not just 3-4, when spending time at Illyrio's. Easy enough for a boy that age, with a similar look, to charm a man who wanted a family of his own but lost his love before they had kids. Certainly easier than a mopey, mousy pre-teen girl like Dany was when we first met her, dominated by her brother

Varys' speech does not rule out fAegon living with Illyrio well past the age of 10 (though I'm happy to concede 7 given I can't find any of the references). The lad has had plenty of time since then living with smallfolk.
Besides, Varys' speech is an ideal. He's been in Westeros the whole time and doesn't know fAegon or everything he's been doing, only the idealised plan for fAegon.

2 hours ago, divica said:

I am pretty sure you have the eye colors wrong. Rhaegar has indigo eyes while danny and viserys have similar violet eyes… (I am considering indigo as deep purple and violet as light purple). And what I was sugesting is that aerys had indigo eyes and rhaella violet eyes (or vice versa) and that therefore the eye color was inherited. But that is kind of a minor detail. The importante fact is that fAegon's eyes are of a diferente collor than rhaegar's. It might mean something or nothing… But if his eyes were indigo then it would support that he is the real Aegon.

From Dany's vision

Quote

Viserys, was her first thought the next time she paused, but a second glance told her otherwise. The man had her brother's hair, but he was taller, and his eyes were a dark indigo rather than lilac. "Aegon," he said to a woman nursing a newborn babe in a great wooden bed. "What better name for a king?"

Dany is well established as violet in many places, here is just one

Quote

They dressed her in the wisps that Magister Illyrio had sent up, and then the gown, a deep plum silk to bring out the violet in her eyes. 

So no, all three siblings have different shades of eye colour and it is thus not an important fact that fAegon's shade is not the same as Rhaegar's.

2 hours ago, divica said:

 

That wiki says Harry didn t imediatly refuse the yunkish proposal so that his men didn t think he was crazy because the proposal was very good. I think it gives the oposite idea you trying to pass, but I didn t understand your sentence "didn't tell say no to the Yunkish offer to break contract with Myr and join the fight against Dany because he didn't think his men would take it well".

The proposal was very good, so good that it would be crazy not to take it. Which pretty much invalidates the idea that the GC is still so honourable that they will never break a contract. If they were still the original GC, fiercely loyal to the Blackfyres and so honourable that they would never think of breaking a contract, then it wouldn't matter how good the offer was, no one would think he was crazy not to take it because it would be unthinkable to take it and break the one they had.

This demonstrates that the GC is no longer what it was. 

2 hours ago, divica said:

And the point about the GC is that why would they support faegon and not viserys or why no one in a company that has a great history against targs oposes suporting Aegon or what does illyrio mean that some contracts are written in blood when he talks about why the GC broke a contract.

We are clearly shown and explicitly told that the current GC is not the same as the original GC. Yes, they historically support the Blackfyres. But the Blackfyres are gone, and so are all the men who supported them. Harry Strickland is 4th generation exile. The Blackfyres are a historical irrelevance now. But Westeros is still home, and supporting a real candidate for the throne can win them lands and castles of their own - no longer "Homeless Harry".

Quote

Illyrio brushed away the objection as if it were a fly. "Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of the male line of House Blackfyre." The cheesemonger smiled through his forked beard. "And Daenerys will give the exiles what Bittersteel and the Blackfyres never could. She will take them home."

If they would support Dany, clearly a real Targaryen, why wouldn't they support fAegon, who may be a real Targaryen or may be a Blackfyre (I don;t believe it, but many do and Miles Toyne may have).

The contract writ in blood is the chance to go back to westeros and win lands and castles of their own, or their ancestors vs ink for homeless gold. 

2 hours ago, divica said:

And I have no idea what connections there are to point Lemore is ashara besides that lemore is pretty and was once pregnant.

Lemore/Ashara is a noblewoman - she clearly has some authority within the conspiracy as she argues with JonCon and is treated with respect far beyond that of a servant. JonCon even calls her Lady in his own head, more than once.
Lemore/Ashara is well schooled in the Faith of the Seven. Recall Sansa's education. Recall that Ashara was disgraced from court due to a pregnancy and recall how such things were dealt with in the nearest analogous cultures in our own world (pregnant young noblewomen shipped off to convents for a time).
Lemore/Ashara is golden skinned (or at least oliv-ey enough to turn golden in the sunlight) and dark haired. Ashara was dark haired and Dornish.
Lemore is attractive, even at 40ish, and engaging (flirtacious isn't quite right, but not far off) even as a distinctly middle-aged septa. The beautiful Ashara danced with all the hottest young men at Harrenhal and was disgraced from court by an out of wedlock pregnancy.
Lemore has clearly had a child which is not present (unless its YG). Ashara supposedly lost a child.
Lemore swims daily (unusual). Ashara was brought up in a tower by the sea and supposedly committed suicide by jumping into the sea, though no body was found.
Lemore as Ashara provides a narrative link for the Aegon story that Jon Connington lacks. She was his mother's handmaid and close companion at court and likely has had almost* continual custody of Aegon since the sack, effectively raising the boy. (*That almost is quite important, even if it is only a few months or weeks). An Aegon reveal backed by Jon Connington and Varys is just another piece of fakery to most Lords in Westeros. But an Aegon reveal backed by a genuine Ashara Dayne as well is a whole other story.

Lemore/Ashara also provides an interesting opportunity to for a Dany's 'betrayal for love' (Barristan, for Ashara). Thats a narrative possibility rather than a textual data point.

2 hours ago, divica said:

However, there is a big motive for her not being ashara. She would have told Aegon and jon con about jon snow. 

That depends what she knows about Jon. And how important she thinks it is.
Aegon's the actual correct heir, not Jon. 
At best, Jon is merely a younger brother, raised as a Stark bastard by the people who deposed and destroyed Aegon's family. In the middle, he's a bastard brother raised by the people who deposed and destroyed Aegon's family. At worst he's just some bastard Ned Stark had with him when he dropped off Dawn.
In some cases that may or may not be considered relevant information. Apparently not. In other cases its definitely not relevant,

2 hours ago, divica said:

Besides if ashara had become a septa there is no reason to fake her death...

She's not really a septa, just wore the robes.
But anyway, sure there is.
If Vary's story of smuggling away Aegon (or a substitute that she doesn't know about) is true, and she was chosen to take him into exile, she needs to be 'dead' to allay any inquiry. Anyone wondering about her 'disappearance' might connect to a pretty dark haired woman of the right age with a purple eyed baby of the right age on a ship bound for Essos, or living in Essos.

Its the same reason JonCon faked his death. Nobody wonders about or connects up various clues about someone who is already dead because they already "know" about that person. Or put another way, people who have some dots, don;t connect them with "dead" people the same way the might with "missing" people.
 

 

 

[Platypus Rex]

3 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Lots of targs have different colored eyes. Especially with an inbred dad and a dornish mom. 

I'm guessing Rhaegar was not so inbred.  Otherwise, he would be less like Rhaegar, and more like Viserys or (more likely) one of those babies that never lived past infancy.  That's where Bonifer Hasty fits into the story.

Outbreeding tends to reverse many of the ill effects of inbreeding.  Otherwise, the Targs would never have survived as long as they have.  However, it is curious that some of the more striking Targ abnormalities occur with outbreeding (e.g., Bloodraven and Shiera).

[The Mother of The Others]

1.  You guys care a lot about my boy Aegon.  It shows.

2.  I don't like eyes anymore in real life because of this series.

3.  Once you sign on to Team Aegon it doesn't matter who the secret identity is or who the parents are because he has my support no matter what.   He's my child, and I'm partly sure things will go great for him.    My love isn't possessive though and you're all invited to adopt him in your hearts as well.   It's an important part of the process that ends with us feeling crushed when the author does him into the grave.  Septa Mordain is a hot milf, regardless.

[Platypus Rex]

2 hours ago, corbon said:

"Lemore/Ashara is a noblewoman - she clearly has some authority within the conspiracy as she argues with JonCon and is treated with respect far beyond that of a servant. JonCon even calls her Lady in his own head, more than once."

Mellario of Norvos is a noblewoman.  Odd that she is being completely ignored, considering the topic of this thread.

"Lemore/Ashara is well schooled in the Faith of the Seven."

Well, Lemore is.  We have no data on Ashara or Mellario.  Ashara was raised in the Faith; and Mellario may have converted (or not?) in order to facilitate her marriage to Doran.  In any event, impersonating a Septa is not a particularly devout thing to do.  

"Lemore/Ashara is golden skinned (or at least oliv-ey enough to turn golden in the sunlight) and dark haired."

Any light-skinned person, olive or not, will have skin that shines golden in the sunlight.  And bathing daily in the river is likely to give you a tan.

As for dark hair, it is hinted that Mellario is also dark, since Arianne is said to take after her.  But there's a twist:  Mellario may have shaved her head and wore a wig, as is the custom of Norvos.  Therefore she COULD plausibly be the mother of a blond son.

"Lemore is attractive, even at 40ish, and engaging … The beautiful Ashara danced with all the hottest young men at Harrenhal ...."

Mellario was also attractive and engaging.   More to the point, Mellario is clearly "over 40", whereas Ashara is not.  Here, Mellario wins, in the sense that the better fits Tyrion's guess.  (But yes, I'm aware that it is possible for Tyrion's guess to be wrong).

"Lemore has clearly had a child which is not present (unless its YG). Ashara supposedly lost a child."

Mellario has had 3 children.  One of whom is indeed present if the theory that is the topic of this thread is correct.

"Lemore swims daily (unusual). Ashara was brought up in a tower by the sea and supposedly committed suicide by jumping into the sea, though no body was found."

Mellario was brought up by the same river that Lemore swims in.

"Lemore as Ashara provides a narrative link for the Aegon story that Jon Connington lacks. She was his mother's handmaid and close companion at court and likely has had almost* continual custody of Aegon since the sack, effectively raising the boy."

Mellario provides a far stronger link.  She is Fake Aegon's mother.  The tantrum she threw, when Doran tried to separate her from her son, provides one of the motives for the baby swap.  And now, finally, we have an explanation for why she spends so much time in Essos, even though she supposedly hates being separated from her children.  She is with her child. 

[Dorian Martell's son]

2 minutes ago, divica said:

Danny was a shy, beautiful girl that was abused by her brother. Any grandparent person would feel some afection for her… Our big great softy illyrio sold her to a dothriaki to be raped daily… we are clearly in the presence of a person that cares about children…

You are confusing show and book. Drogo was very tender in the book and loved her dearly. Also, Illyrio didn't know her for more than half a year. She was always a pawn, as was her abusive brother. 

4 minutes ago, divica said:

And I don t think illyrio would spend a lot of time with a baby or 3/4 year old child… He has no reason to do it when he has lots of people that can take of the child.

And you spoke to the author about this? If a child was raised in his presence for 4 years, despite having caretakers, as any wealthy person in the books has, he would still see and spend time with the child. His affection proves that, fake or no. 

5 minutes ago, divica said:

I have no idea if it is normal for sons to have eyes with a diferent purple color than either parent. But it is a fact that jon com points out that he has diferente eyes.

Rhaegar has one eye color, Elia had a different color. It makes sense that the kid would have a third color. 

2 hours ago, divica said:

The GC breaking a contract and supporting a targ is breaking almost everything that bittersteal made the company stand for. And the company hasn t been plannig this for 20 years because the whole company only found out about Aegon recently… In adition, you forgeting the line that some contracts are written in blood when tyrion asked about why the GC would break a contract. 

Bittersteel has been dead for nearly 100 years. And the whole company doesn't need to know, especially the lower ranks. Only the leadership needs to know, and they obviously did. Now, the contracts written in blood, that is easily mistook for being an indication of a blackfyre mission, but it is also an indication of the importance of going home. In Essos they are foreigners fighting for coin. In westeros they are looking to return to their ancestral seats. Their bloodright if you will.  and since the last man to carry the blackfyre name died some 4 decades ago, well, barristan and the mad king were both young men. 

3 hours ago, divica said:

And if varys cared all that much about the targs what has he done for viserys? he could have had his buddy support viserys since they were in essos. Instead he let him and danny suffer until they needed them! Varys clearly isn t a loyal targ supporter...

Viserys and Dany didn't need support for almost half a decade. They had the last of the royal wealth and Ser Darry caring for them under the protection of the sealord of Bravos, and after they ran, fatty did put them up and take care of them. But by that time they were almost adults and therefore useable as pawns. Now, fatty gave viserys every chance to live like a king with no responsibility but instead he had to go ride with his sister because he was crazy and obviously not fit to be a king. 

4 hours ago, divica said:

How does jon com loving rhaegar influence if Aegon is a targ? As long as they presented jon con with a valyrian baby why would jon con ever think that the baby isn t Aegon? Kids are equal to their parents (look at robb and ned). They have some similarities!

JuanCon was in love with Rhaegar and therefore had his image burned in his brain. A baby that was valyrian but not a targ would eventually stop looking like a family member. But (f)Aegon does not stir any doubts in his protector. Now, a central plot point in the books is family appearances. While Robb, Sansa and Rickon look tulley like their mom, Arya and Jon look like their dad, with the Stark "look'

5 hours ago, divica said:

The fact that varys chose jon con ( a man that lost the love of his life and had no reason to live) instead of doran that had connection and armies capable of supporting Aegon but that would be doubtful about varys story once again shows how fragile the whole faegon is Aegon story is!

JonCon had plenty to live for. He is a strong man who had the skills, drive and was willing to change his life again to help the heir of his friend.  Doran on the other hand was perceived as weak. He had a tenuous grip on Dorne. His brother, who was responsible for the tenuous grip  was running around trying to stir up a futile war. HIs son was a hostage for a bannerman of questionable loyalty. JoCon had less, and therefore could do more. It if varys would have ran to Doran, word would have gotten to Bob, and there would be war, Doran told his daughter that the 50,000 spears is a major exaggeration. A bluff. So that is why varys did not send (f)Aegon to dorne  

[Dorian Martell's son]

5 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

I'm guessing Rhaegar was not so inbred.  

How is that possible?  

5 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

Otherwise, he would be less like Rhaegar, and more like Viserys or (more likely) one of those babies that never lived past infancy. 

This is a fantasy novel, not a story about genetics

5 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

 That's where Bonifer Hasty fits into the story.

you lost me there. 

5 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

Outbreeding tends to reverse many of the ill effects of inbreeding.  Otherwise, the Targs would never have survived as long as they have.  However, it is curious that some of the more striking Targ abnormalities occur with outbreeding (e.g., Bloodraven and Shiera).

Again, this is a fantasy novel. Sibling inbreeding shows effects immediately and a couple generations of it lead to major deformities. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

For my money, Aegon is the real deal.

Everyone has sort of latched on to the cloth dragon and the mummer's dragon. Being the mummer's dragon doesn't make the dragon a fake one.

And the sun's son, while I agree may be Quentyn because he is the one who traveled to Meereen, there are two more "sun's son" in the story. We know there's Trystane, Doran's son, but there's also AeGriff.

Being Elia's son also makes him the "sun's son" as well.  

And Varys isn't the only mummer in the story. And there is another mummer who is near a dragon. Jon Snow being Rhaegar's son makes him a dragon. And one of Jon's nearest friends was a mummer before he turned up at the Wall. Pyp helped Sam make Jon Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. We don't know what he did exactly, but he gets all prissy about it when Jon can't spend time with his friends.

And no, before I get jumped on, I don't think Jon or even AeGriff for that matter will betray Dany (yes, I know about the second dance that's going to happen), but I also think that Quaithe wants to be the only person Dany feels she can trust. 

I just think there's another way of looking at this. And I think there's a reason George gave both AeGriff and Jon these mummers. I don't think it's a coincidence. 

[Platypus Rex]

10 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

"How is that possible?" 

Bonifer Hasty is Rhaegar's dad, not Aerys.

"This is a fantasy novel, not a story about genetics" 

It's obviously about both.  Aegon V studied Targ family trees and concluded that sibling incest is a bad idea.  The reader can also study Targ family trees and make the same observation.

[corbon]

17 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

Mellario provides a far stronger link.  She is Fake Aegon's mother.  The tantrum she threw, when Doran tried to separate her from her son, provides one of the motives for the baby swap.  And now, finally, we have an explanation for why she spends so much time in Essos, even though she supposedly hates being separated from her children.  She is with her child. 

For me, Mellario as Lemore fails utterly in narrative sense.

She provides nothing to support fAegon's claim to who he is.
The whole Dornish baby swap is an empty theory with no textual data points, only flimsy constructions. And is completely invalidated by even a cursory examination of Quentyn-as-Aegon.
It makes a complete nonsense of all known past plans of Doran (yet this has to have been sitting actively in the background from the start).

[Platypus Rex]

48 minutes ago, corbon said:

For me, Mellario as Lemore fails utterly in narrative sense.

She provides nothing to support fAegon's claim to who he is.

She doesn't need to.  Under the theory fAegon's uncle and next of kin will support fAegon's claim to be Aegon.  This is particularly compelling since, under the theory, the real Aegon really did survive, and really did fall into Doran's hands(and there are presumably witnesses to this).  And fAegon really does resemble Aegon to some extent, being his first cousin.

"The whole Dornish baby swap is an empty theory with no textual data points, only flimsy constructions."

Compared to what?  Ashara as Lemore?  Seems to me I have mentioned quite a few textual data points, but I suppose you'll just pretend I didn't.

"And is completely invalidated by even a cursory examination of Quentyn-as-Aegon."

How exactly?  

"It makes a complete nonsense of all known past plans of Doran …"

What known past plans?  We don't know anything about Doran's past plans except that which he wants others to know or think?  In other words, we know ZILCH.

 

[corbon]

9 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

She doesn't need to.  Under the theory fAegon's uncle and next of kin will support fAegon's claim to be Aegon.  This is particularly compelling since, under the theory, the real Aegon really did survive, and really did fall into Doran's hands(and there are presumably witnesses to this).  And fAegon really does resemble Aegon to some extent, being his first cousin.

And most of Westeros will handwave it as Dornish fakery. Dorian Martell's word will mean nothing - its not only a blatant power grab by Dorne, Martell hasn't even had custody of the child, who has been off is Essos raised by foreigners.

To be acceptable to the Westerosi as Aegon, he needs significant and connected witnesses who are not grabbing power for themselves. Ashara and to a lesser JonCon provide that. Dorian Martell is too far removed from the raising to count and Mellario is worthless.

9 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

"The whole Dornish baby swap is an empty theory with no textual data points, only flimsy constructions."

Compared to what?  Ashara as Lemore?  Seems to me I have mentioned quite a few textual data points, but I suppose you'll just pretend I didn't.

Not that I've seen. The only thing relevant in the OP was "he's the right age and sex" - not enough
You counted Martell features as a positive, but they are a conclusive negative - proof against the theory
You counted fostering as relevant, but its neither necessary nor unexpected for a non-swap - flimsy construction
You counted dreams of fire and blood, but he never had such except the night before his planned attempt to seize a dragon. Anyone could have such dreams in that circumstance. The words, and their relevance, are clearly on his mind as he says them to rally himself before entering the dragon's chamber. He is clearly pinning his hopes on the Targaryen blood he has from several intermarriages and to do what the dragonseeds did before him. He can do this as the real Quentyn, needs to more so than if he thought he really was Aegon in fact, who would have much clearer 'right' to do this - flimsy construction
Face down a dragon - maybe Viserion was responding to him, maybe not. Either way, its the same argument as above. Quentyn Martell can do this, trying as a dragonseed. He doesn't need to be Aegon Targaryen.

In summary your own data points provided stronger evidence against the theory than for and nothing remotely concrete.

9 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

"And is completely invalidated by even a cursory examination of Quentyn-as-Aegon."

How exactly?  

 

I've done this thoroughly. You ignored it in favour of continuing an irrational argument about the near-unique Targaryen colouring changing for the first time in recorded history.

Quentyn has the wrong legs, the wrong build, the wrong face, the wrong colour, the wrong nose and the wrong jaw. Not sure about the forehead, though its not a description that crops up in most Targaryens (any?)
the wrong colour you mad a bad argument about, the rest you ignored.

The Targaryen "look" is tall, lean, aquiline. Silver or gold hair and purple eyes are features, but not definitive. 
Aegon had the Targaryen look including fair hair.
Quentyn has the antithetical Targaryen look. Short, stocky, broad faced, square jawed, and brown. The brown might possibly be inconclusive (I think your argument is pathetic on this point but lets give you that anyway), the rest are conclusive.

9 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

 

"It makes a complete nonsense of all known past plans of Doran …"

What known past plans?  We don't know anything about Doran's past plans except that which he wants others to know or think?  In other words, we know ZILCH.

 

Yes we do.
We know that he had a plan to marry Arriane to Viserys way back. And we know that from the other side, not just what Doran tells us. 

We know he had a plan to marry Quentyn to Dany, once Viserys was dead.

We know he now has a plan to marry Arriane to Aegon.

None of those make sense if Quentyn is actually Aegon, though arguably the last could if the thought of such (non-Targ) incest didn't bother him the way it bothers every other Westerosi.