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Fake Aegon, Real Aegon, and Quentyn Martell


Platypus Rex

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On ‎12‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 8:39 PM, Platypus Rex said:

GRRM's words (Rhaenys looked more like a Martell; Aegon more like a Targaryen) were relative rather than absolute.  

Also, young children can change in appearance as they age.  This is common knowledge and common sense, but GRRM also directly hints at it when he mentions that Arianne, in her youth, seemed to resemble her father more, but as she aged, came to resemble her mother more.

Nothing is more normal than to have a blond child grow brown as the child ages.  Do not the vast majority of blond children turn into brown-haired adults?  Quentyn's hair is not even said to be dark brown, AFAIK.  Nor can anyone tell whether a 3 year old child will grow up to be tall and have long legs.

 Theories are proven wrong all the time, people not accepting that is childish.

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THE DEFINITIVE THEORY:

Real Aegon died at King's Landing, fake Aegon is a Blackfyre ( probably a relative of Varys, like a nephew or whatever, or even an Illyrio's relative, or his son, idk ) and Quentyn was just a boring and pointless character created just to die.  

 

And if your theory is true... it doesn't matter. 

 

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On 12/13/2018 at 4:04 PM, Platypus Rex said:

"From what I can tell from browsing this forum, there are two camps here:  Those that believe that "Young Griff" is fake, in that he is not really "Baby Aegon" the son of Rhaegar and Elia; and those who think he is the real deal."

This is self evident from my perspective.  We all believe what Griff and Co. present in the story, or we don't.  I questioned his identity when I read these chapters because the characters in Westeros all seem to believe that the Mountain dashed his brains out before raping his mother. 

"There is evidence for both theories, which I will not list exhaustively.  But, for example, there are clues from Varys that suggest he genuinely believes that Baby Aegon is still alive (and he might well know, thanks to his little birds in King's Landing).  On the other hand, there is the prophesy of the "mummer's dragon" and other indications that suggest that Young Griff might be an impostor."

True enough.  GRRM does like to spread seeds of doubt when dealing with historical events.

"But what if there is truth to both sides of this question?  What if Aegon survived and escaped King's Landing, but Young Griff is not that child?"

I struggle with this question based on a supposition.  How did Aegon survive having his brains dashed out as an infant and who is Young Griff if he isn't the son of Griff or Rhaegar?

"I've seen the question asked:  Does it matter if Young Griff is not the real Aegon?  After all, he seems to have been raised to THINK he is Aegon.  And he seems like he might be a semi-decent kid."

It matters to me because that would mean that all of Westeros, whom he has apparently been groomed to rule, believes that he is the real deal.  Him not being the real deal would be a massive lie.  Westerosi society is structured around inheritance and lines of succession, after all. 

"In short, who cares about this whole "(f)Aegon" subplot, ….   Unless, perhaps, there is also a real Aegon out there, who is, in truth, one of the 3 "Heads of the Dragon"; and perhaps even "The Prince that Was Promised".  If there were, it might matter that an imposter is claiming the throne in his place."

See above.  All of Westeros would care because they believe that the line of succession was broken when Gregor Clegane killed him.

"Are there any characters, to whom we have already been introduced with reasonable prominence, who might possibly be Baby Aegon?"

There are no characters in the books with smashed heads.

"Let's start with All the POV characters; then throw in for good measure, all characters who were important enough to receive at least a mention in the Appendix to the original "A Game of Thrones" volume.  Could any of these characters be Baby Aegon?   Go down the list one by one, and you're answer will be "nope", "nope", "nope".  Wrong age.  Wrong sex.  Wrong appearance.  I've seen Jon Snow mentioned in this capacity, on the theory that his age could possibly be wrong, and he might be older than he believes.  But if so, where did he get his Stark features?"

I'm with you.  None of these characters are likely to be Aegon VI Targaryen.

"I've seen only one character who might possibly fit the bill."

Oh?

"Quentyn Martell.  POV character, listed in AGoT Appendix.  Right age.  Right sex.  Martell features which (if he is Baby Aegon) would be from his mother.   Backstory involving fostering with the Yronwoods at age 3, providing an ideal circumstance for a baby-swap.  He dreams of Fire and Blood.  And the last thing we saw him do, before Rhaegal attacked him, was face down a dragon with ship in hand.  And Viserion, at least, actually seemed to respond."

Wow.  Imaginative.

"And of course if (f)Quentyn is (r)Aegon, then (f)Aegon is probably (r)Quentyn.  And that tells us who Septa Lemore is.  She is (r)Quentyn's mom, Mellario of Norvos."

Okay, so Quentyn is not really Quentyn, he's Aegon.  More wows!  And that means that the Aegon that Tyrion encounters on Shy Maid is actually Quentyn?    Wow, wow, wow!  And, furthermore, Septa Lemore is actually Mellario of Norvos?  Wow, wow, wow, and more wows!

"There is a theory that  Quentyn is alive -- that due to one of GRRM's signature fake-outs, another (probably Prince Tatters) died in his place in Dany's bed.  I believe the theory, but I won't describe the theory in full now.  One of the objections to the theory has always been:  "But, why does it matter if Quentyn is alive?"  Well, here's your answer."

It matters that Quentyn is still alive because he is actually Aegon VI.  Gotcha. 

"Give me one good reason I should not believe that Quentyn "the Frog" Martell is the real Aegon."

The real infant Aegon had his brains dashed out on a wall by Gregor Clegane. 

I will stop now.  I admit that I don't have very strong feelings one way or another on your theory.  I was just having a try at your posting style.  You often take quotes from other posters who take the time to write responses in full paragraph form and then you break them down and respond to them one sentence at a time.  I find it tedious to read this style of response, especially since your responses to each sentence tend to be longer than what the original poster stated,  and I have noticed that a handful of other posters have adopted this approach lately.  I have to say that I got even less enjoyment out of trying this style of response than I get when reading them.  For one thing, it makes the response come across as more argumentative than maybe it needs to be.  I'll be moving along now. 

 

 

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14 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

Bonifer Hasty is Rhaegar's dad, not Aerys.

I had not heard that one. Usually he is Dorkstar's dad 

14 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

It's obviously about both.  Aegon V studied Targ family trees and concluded that sibling incest is a bad idea.  The reader can also study Targ family trees and make the same observation.

Not really. The genetics realism in the novels is about as realistic as Dragons, Ice demons, Not Elves, furry giants that speak and people seeing the future in bonfires. A couple generations of brother sister inbreeding and you get major deformities, even just starting with Aegon and Rhaenys,  Alysanne's kids would be too deformed to reproduce, but some are healthy and grow into perfectly normal adults 

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15 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

I had not heard that one. Usually he is Dorkstar's dad 

Had not heard about Dorkstar. 

Bonifer Hasty, the "solemn stork of a man" who was once a top tournament knight at the court of Aegon V, is (per my guess) our connection to Duncan the Tall (son or grandson).  It is through him (I am guessing) that we get the "descendant(s) of Dunk" that GRRM has so coyly hinted about.  Hence (per this guess) Rhaegar was a descendant of Dunk, as are any descendants of Rhaegar (whoever they may be).

Bonifer and Rhaella were sweethearts -- not too long before Rhaella's forced marriage to Aerys, and the quick arrival of Rhaegar.

 

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15 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Not really. The genetics realism in the novels is about as realistic as Dragons, Ice demons, Not Elves, furry giants that speak and people seeing the future in bonfires. A couple generations of brother sister inbreeding and you get major deformities, even just starting with Aegon and Rhaenys,  Alysanne's kids would be too deformed to reproduce, but some are healthy and grow into perfectly normal adults 

I don't want to get into an argument with you about your understanding of genetics, or whether the story portrays the issue realistically.  The fact is the texts DO show the negative effects of inbreeding.

You mention Alysanne.  Alysanne and her brother-husband were both the results of outbreeding.  That is presumably what made them both more impressive than their inbred Targ father.  (Outbreeding tends to reverse the negative effects of prior inbreeding, at least in GRRM's world, and I think maybe in real life as well, by suppressing most recessive traits).

Alysanne's own inbred children were not necessarily disasters, but it's not like there were no problems.  4 of them died young, a 5th was simpleminded.  Even the best of them were not nearly as impressive as their parents.  Since none ever took the throne, we never focus on them much.

They had 3 doubly-inbred grandchildren, through the marriage of their inbred children:  Viserys I had health problems.  Daemon "the rogue prince", was arguably too talented to fit the pattern for double-inbreeding, though he was also perhaps not quite sane.  A third died young.

But you can never know when some secret outbreeding may be going on.

Deformities are mentioned among the Targs, though I don't recall the details off the top of my head.  And of course, one would expect such information to be usually suppressed.

 

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54 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

Had not heard about Dorkstar. 

Bonifer Hasty, the "solemn stork of a man" who was once a top tournament knight at the court of Aegon V, is (per my guess) our connection to Duncan the Tall (son or grandson).  It is through him (I am guessing) that we get the "descendant(s) of Dunk" that GRRM has so coyly hinted about.  Hence (per this guess) Rhaegar was a descendant of Dunk, as are any descendants of Rhaegar (whoever they may be).

Bonifer and Rhaella were sweethearts -- not too long before Rhaella's forced marriage to Aerys, and the quick arrival of Rhaegar.

 

GRRM isn’t so coy with who Dunks descendant is. It is Brienne of Tarth. 

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21 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

 Theories are proven wrong all the time, people not accepting that is childish.

Well, it might be more mature to agree to disagree, respectfully, until the next book comes out.  But if you think it more mature to call people who disagree with you "childish", because they UNREASONABLY refuse to accept your IRREFUTABLE arguments, that's fine too.

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2 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

GRRM isn’t so coy with who Dunks descendant is. It is Brienne of Tarth. 

Quote please.  Was it the time when he gave a non-committal answer to a loaded question, which was interpreted by fans with the help of a heavy dose of confirmation bias?

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1 hour ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Honestly, if you’re in a rush for the quote it will be a while from me as I’m about to sit to dinner with friends, but it should pop up when you google it :cheers:

It doesn't come up easily on google, though I may find it if I click around.  

As I recall, it was reported he gave a noncommittal response to a loaded question, and this was interpreted as confirmation.  Something like "Will we find out how Brienne is Dunk's descendant?" to which he said something like "Yes, all will be revealed in time" or something like that.  Which I interpreted as "Just be patient" and which others interpret as "Yes, Brienne is indeed Dunk's descendant".

But I now find it hard to locate the original report.  Just third-hand reports by clickbait journalists.  Which are worth nothing.

Also, why do you applaud your own statements?

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8 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

It doesn't come up easily on google, though I may find it if I click around.  

As I recall, it was reported he gave a noncommittal response to a loaded question, and this was interpreted as confirmation.  Something like "Will we find out how Brienne is Dunk's descendant?" to which he said something like "All will be revealed in time" or something like that.  Which I interpreted as "Just be patient" and which others interpret as "Yes, Brienne is indeed Dunk's descendant".

But I now find it hard to locate the original report.  Just third-hand reports by clickbait journalists.  Which are worth nothing.

Also, why do you applaud your own statements?

where did I applaud my own statements?

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3 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

It doesn't come up easily on google, though I may find it if I click around.  

As I recall, it was reported he gave a noncommittal response to a loaded question, and this was interpreted as confirmation.  Something like "Will we find out how Brienne is Dunk's descendant?" to which he said something like "Yes, all will be revealed in time" or something like that.  Which I interpreted as "Just be patient" and which others interpret as "Yes, Brienne is indeed Dunk's descendant".

But I now find it hard to locate the original report.  Just third-hand reports by clickbait journalists.  Which are worth nothing.

Also, why do you applaud your own statements?

OH I know where you can find it!

In radio westeros vídeo about the edge knight they talk about it towards the end.

According to my memory it goes like this.

Someone asked grrm if brienne is dunk's descendent and grrm answers that he gave a rather strong indication that she is when someone describes the shield she uses (it is the same dunk used and she found it in tarth's armory.

However you should check the vídeo (it is a long vídeo, but the information is towards the end). Like after they analise the book and start talking about theories. Grrm was really quite assertive that she is dunk's descendent.

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On ‎12‎/‎17‎/‎2018 at 8:20 PM, corbon said:

"And most of Westeros will handwave it as Dornish fakery. Dorian Martell's word will mean nothing - its not only a blatant power grab by Dorne, Martell hasn't even had custody of the child, who has been off is Essos raised by foreigners."

Seems to me these 2 connections cancel each other out.  If Doran is not seen as controlling fAegon, because he has not had control of the child during most of his formative years, then what has he necessarily to gain?  His connection to fAegon through Septa Lemore (Mellario) is secret.  But, per the theory, has seen the kid at age 3, and perhaps at later times, and can probably confirm (or pretend to confirm) who he is.  

Would fAegon's case be stronger if his uncle DENIED his identity?

"To be acceptable to the Westerosi as Aegon, he needs significant and connected witnesses who are not grabbing power for themselves."

Presumably, additional witnesses will appear at the right time under either version of the theory.

"You counted Martell features as a positive, but they are a conclusive negative - proof against the theory."

A strange position you are taking here.  Baby Aegon was Rhaegar's son, not his clone.  He presumably had features from both parents. (BTW by "features" I just mean features generally, not just facial features).  

"You counted fostering as relevant, but its neither necessary nor unexpected for a non-swap - flimsy construction"

So you're saying the (suspected) clue has plausible deniability.  I agree.  This theory (if correct) is about something GRRM does not mean us to know about yet.  Any clues planted will have plausible deniability.  GRRM will give us subtle clues, not smoking guns.

"You counted dreams of fire and blood, but he never had such except the night before his planned attempt to seize a dragon. Anyone could have such dreams in that circumstance."

Again, plausible deniability.  Those who want a smoking gun will have to wait for the big reveal.

"Face down a dragon - maybe Viserion was responding to him, maybe not. Either way, its the same argument as above. Quentyn Martell can do this, trying as a dragonseed. He doesn't need to be Aegon Targaryen."

Sure.  Plausible deniability.  And even if he shows up in the next volume riding Viserion, it will still be possible for him (and the reader) to imagine that the reason he was able to do this was because of his distant connection to a distant Targ ancestor.  Any "smoking gun" reveal would likely come later.

"I've done this thoroughly. You ignored it in favour of continuing an irrational argument about the near-unique Targaryen colouring changing for the first time in recorded history."

I rejected an argument based on unproven assumptions, presented with lots of attitude, but little if any evidence.

"Quentyn has the wrong legs,..."

Compared to what?  ALL toddlers have short legs.  Do you think you can tell how long a toddler's legs will be in adulthood by looking at the child at age 1? 

"...the wrong build..."

This may be just a way of repeating the fact that his legs are short.  People with short legs tend to look stocky.

"the wrong face"

Compared to what?  Rhaegar was beautiful, but Quentyn is seen is plain, but that's a very subjective thing; and probably has more to do with how the features fit together than with the specific features themselves.  And obviously, like any child, what he does not get from the father, he gets from the mother.

"the wrong colour"

[Shrug].  He was more fair as a one-year old than he is now.  Like many children.  

"the wrong nose"

Compared to what?  Quentyn's nose is broad.  Rhaegar's nose is … not described.  Baby Aegon's nose is ... not described.  And can you really tell by looking at a toddler what their nose is going to look like?  Don't they all have cute little button noses, more or less?  And if the nose did not come from the father, it came from the mother.  Again, he's a SON, not a CLONE.

"and the wrong jaw"

Compared to what?  Quentyn's jaw is described as square.  Rhaegar's jaw is … not described.  Baby Aegon's jaw is … not described.  And the square jaw is not typically seen in early childhood. That's why it is considered a "manly" trait (and not necessarily unattractive either).

"Not sure about the forehead, …"

Yeah, me neither.  No data.  Quentyn has a high forehead.  What did Rhaegar have?  

"The Targaryen "look" is tall, lean, aquiline."

Who cares?  One year old toddlers don't look tall, lean, or aquiline.   They look short and stumpy, with small button noses.

BTW, I don't know where you got the idea that Targs are "aquiline".  I think maybe only 1 person of Targ heritage was ever described as "aquiline".  But I don't know why it matters.  "Aquiline" refers to the profile.  It has nothing to do with the broadness of the nose.  Maybe Rhaegar, Quentyn, Doran, and Elia are all "aquiline"; or perhaps none of them are.

"Aegon had the Targaryen look including fair hair."

Right.  He had fair hair (at age one) and looked "more like a Targaryen" (at age one).  Note that "more like a Targaryen" in this context means that (at age 1) he seemed to resemble his father more than he resembled his mother.   It would not (typically) mean that he was a perfect clone of his father who got nothing from his mother at all. 

And just to make sure we know that children can change, GRRM went out of his way to tell us that Arianne seemed to take after her father as a young child, but grew to take more after her mother as she aged.  Just to make sure he set a precedent for the idea that such things are possible.

"Quentyn has the antithetical Targaryen look. Short, …"

Quentyn is not short.  He is average.  He's just 2 inches shorter than Pretty Meris, who is nearly 6 feet.  So, probably 5'9" or 5"10".  It is merely his legs that are short.  And where do you get the idea that Targs are necessarily tall?  Is Dany tall?  What about Naerys Targaryen who was (in GRRM's words) "smaller even than Dany"? 

"...stocky …"

Again, may just be another way of saying he has short legs, since short-legged people tend to look stocky.  But does it matter?  Does any sane person think you can tell the adult build of a child by looking at the child at aged 1?

"...broad faced..."

And where is Rhaegar described as narrow-faced, or anything like that?

"... square jawed..."

And where was Rhaegar described as "narrow jawed" or "weak jawed"?

"... and brown..."

Yup.  In the end, that's the one point you've got.  Quentyn has brown hair (as an adult) and Baby Aegon had fair hair (as a toddler).

"The brown might possibly be inconclusive …"

That's what I'm trying to tell you, man.  There's enough wiggle-room here that it might be a fake out.  Maybe, GRRM wants us to expect Aegon to be "fair" so we never look in the right place.   

"I think your argument is pathetic on this point..." 

Well, I'll just be more polite and say I'm not convinced by your counterarguments, or those offered by sweetsunray.  And the heavy dose of attitude you give me does not help.

But that's all in the past, 'cause we just agreed.  Right?  That the brown hair is not necessarily conclusive?

"We know that he had a plan to marry Arriane to Viserys way back. And we know that from the other side, not just what Doran tells us."

What other side?  Darry is dead, and Viserys did not even know about it.  

Moreover, how is it inconsistent?  You never know if small kids are going to turn out in a way that is conducive to your evil plans.  To my mind, it makes perfect sense that Doran had a plan "A" and a plan "B" and perhaps even a plan "C".   What's he got to lose, except opportunities?

"We know he had a plan to marry Quentyn to Dany, once Viserys was dead."

So?  He is getting the real Aegon out of the way, on a fool's mission, while he puts the fake Aegon on the throne.  And if by some chance the mission were to succeed, that's just "plan C" working out fine.  At best he's got Dany as yet another ally.  At worst, he's lost a fake son.

"We know he now has a plan to marry Arianne to Aegon."

We do?  News to me.   

Not that I'd necessarily be surprised.  A man who uses his children as tools for political power might not be squeamish about popular conceptions of morality.  Might be a shock to Arianne, though, if she finds out too late.  But maybe you think GRRM would never go there, because it is just too shocking.

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5 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

I don't want to get into an argument with you about your understanding of genetics, or whether the story portrays the issue realistically.  The fact is the texts DO show the negative effects of inbreeding.

You mention Alysanne.  Alysanne and her brother-husband were both the results of outbreeding.  That is presumably what made them both more impressive than their inbred Targ father.  (Outbreeding tends to reverse the negative effects of prior inbreeding, at least in GRRM's world, and I think maybe in real life as well, by suppressing most recessive traits).

Alysanne's own inbred children were not necessarily disasters, but it's not like there were no problems.  4 of them died young, a 5th was simpleminded.  Even the best of them were not nearly as impressive as their parents.  Since none ever took the throne, we never focus on them much.

They had 3 doubly-inbred grandchildren, through the marriage of their inbred children:  Viserys I had health problems.  Daemon "the rogue prince", was arguably too talented to fit the pattern for double-inbreeding, though he was also perhaps not quite sane.  A third died young.

But you can never know when some secret outbreeding may be going on.

Deformities are mentioned among the Targs, though I don't recall the details off the top of my head.  And of course, one would expect such information to be usually suppressed.

The thing that makes it work is magic. It is a fantasy series after all, and my point wasn't that there were no effects of inbreeding, but that it is treated in a very fantastic way. It is a fantastic as Ice demons, fire mages, shadow assassins, not elves and families with an 8000 year history 

 

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On 12/16/2018 at 10:47 PM, divica said:

I have no idea if it is normal for sons to have eyes with a diferent purple color than either parent. But it is a fact that jon com points out that he has diferente eyes.

For blue, purple, grey and green eyes it's completely normal. There is no specific pigment that makes these colors in eyes. It's completely pigment unrelated. In fact, the lenses are translucent, with a black back layer behind the lens to absorb light and prevent the lens from being a giant aperture blurring vision. The color and hue of blue, purple and green is similar to how ocean water has a color. When you take a bucket of sea water it looks translucent. But when you look across the rim of the boat, it might appear deep blue, or green-blue, etc. It depends on tiny miniscule matter that is dissolved in water, and the size of the molecules of the matter scatter in-falling light in a particular way, because that scattered light has a wavelength smaller than the dissolved molecules in the water. The scattered light with shorter wavelength is then reflected back to the surface, ending up in your eye to be percecived as a certain hue of blue, green, etc.

The melanin in the lens of an eye comes in only 2 colors: yellow and brown. So, only amber and brown eyes are actually pigmented. Hazel eyes are only partially pigmented (around the aperture of the lens, the pupil), but towards the outside of the iris they lack pigmentation. So, they have greenish eyes with a starry brown or amber center around the pupil.

The blue, purple, grey and green of eyes is therefore determined on the molecular struture of the iris, since that is what makes the in-falling light scatter. George knows that these eye-colors are constructed colors and not pigmented colors, because he regularly points out that the colors seem to shift depending on the amount of surround light and color of clothing worn. These are typical for non-pigment based colors. A slightly thicker lens already would have an impact on what hue of these constructed colors will be perceived by observers.

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On a side note: inbreeding itself doesn't cause mental illness or deformities. All of Valyria's top-ranking families were inbred, yet no-one refers to Valyrians as a nation of deformed simpletons.

What inbreeding does do, though, is increasing the chance of passing down bad genes as both parents are carriers instead of just one (the high chances of Targaryen madness might well be the result). If people without genetic burden inbreed, nothing spectacular happens.

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15 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

Bonifer Hasty, the "solemn stork of a man" who was once a top tournament knight at the court of Aegon V, is (per my guess) our connection to Duncan the Tall (son or grandson).  It is through him (I am guessing) that we get the "descendant(s) of Dunk" that GRRM has so coyly hinted about.

Or those descendants are Hodor and Brienne's mother. Old Nan could be that girl, from Bran's vision, in his last chapter in ADWD, that was kissing with a tall knight. The girl, possibly, was Nan, and the knight was Duncan. If my guess is correct, then both Hodor and Brienne are Old Nan's great-grandchildren.

Maybe, Nan is Alysanne Stark, daughter of Beron Stark and Lorra Royce, and thus, she was wet nurse of Brandon Stark, that was her nephew (son of Lyanne Glover and Alysanne's brother, Willam Stark). Brienne had a sister named Alysanne. And there was only one Alysanne in the family tree of House Stark, and Old Nan seems to be old enough, to be that Alysanne. Name Alysanne could be shortened to Aly, Alys, Alysa, An, Anne, Nana, or Nan. So, presence of name Alysanne in family trees of Starks and Tarths, could be a clue, that those two houses are bloodrelated. Selwyn Tarth is not as tall as his daughter, so, probably, Brinne got her height from her mother. And that mother was Old Nan's granddaughter. And she named one of her own daughters Alysanne, which was her grandmother's name. Ned Stark has named one of his daughters Arya, and that was name of his maternal grandmother - Arya Flint.

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