Fake Aegon, Real Aegon, and Quentyn Martell

[Platypus Rex]

I mentioned above that many blond children turn brown as they age, and this may have happened to the Real Aegon, who, hence, may not look the way we expect.

In response, it was claimed that GRRM has established some iron clad rule that blond toddlers of Targ heritage, never, never, never, with absolutely no exceptions, turn brown as they age.  

I have already asked for the exact words establishing this rule.  So far, this request has been ignored.  I now address the request to anyone who is making this claim.

I ask that you please ignore black-haired Targs in your arguments.  Even in the real world, black haired adults are too dark to have been blond as children.   Please confine your attention to brown haired Targs.

I know of a few examples of Targs who had brown hair as adults.  Too few, I think, to establish an iron-clad rule with no exceptions, even if EVERY SINGLE ONE of them were directly established to be already brown at aged 1.  And of course, even in the real world, there are many examples of brown haired adults who started as brown haired toddlers.  So one or two examples of this happening in Westeros will hardly prove that things are any different in Westeros than in the real world.  

But so far, I have not seen a single quote, establishing that a single one of these brown-haired Targs, was already brown at age one. 

So what gives?  Can you guys and gals back up the bold claim you have made?  Or will you claim that the burden is on me to DISPROVE the rule you invented?

[wia]

I find it amusing that the fandom has at least a dozen characters with 'secret Targaryen' theories, but when Martin introduces a secret Targaryen character, the most popular theory about him is that he is fake. 

[sweetsunray]

We did not invent this rule, we simply explained that George built this world, which is not exactly the same as real world. And I explained that all the Targs between Aegon the Conquerer up until Aegon III are described both as children as well as youngsters and adults, all retaining their fair hair. Not one Targ kid starting out fair haired ended up having darker hair as an adult. I do not claim that George has to stick to this pattern, but I do say that George builds up clues and hints to an alternative identity, and if it were the case that a fair haired Targaryen could become a brown or dark haired Targaryen with age (as can happen to blond people in the real world), then he would have described such a Targaryen in either the series itself or any of the side books featuring Targaryens. It is his general writing style to sprinkle clues and evidence for such things, otherwise it would look as if he pulled a rabbit out of a hat.

I mentioned one dark haired child who of course kept her dark hair, but she's not a Targaryen. Jocelyn is the daughter of Rogar Baratheon (black haired) and Alyssa Velaryon, the widow of Aenys (son of Aegon I and king after him).

There are 3 brown haired Targeryens in Fire & Blood: Rhaenyra's first 3 sons, officially fathered by her gay husband Laenor Velaryon, but suspected to be fathered by her champion Strong. These sons are Lucerys, Joffrey and Jacaerys Velaryon. They have brown hair and brown eyes and pug noses. However, make note, that they were born with these features. The reason why people suspect that they were fathered by Harwin Strong was because both Rhaenyra and Laenor are typically Valyrian featured: (platina) blond, aquiline, blue and purple eyed. Nor did these boys grow up to be adults. They were all killed during the Dance of Dragons. Her 2 sons with her uncle Daemon Targaryen, later kings Aegon III and Viserys II, are both born with Valyrian features and retain them throughout life.

It is only three generations later, with Aegon IV's grandson Baelor, that we have a dark haired Targaryen again. Baelor is the son of Daeron II and Mariah Martell. Daeron II looked Targaryen throughout his life, Mariah had the dark Rhoynish features. Aegon IV did not like this marriage, which had not been his own doing. Baelor the Blessed (cousin of Aegon IV) arranged for the marriage between Daeron and Mariah as part of the peace pact with Dorne, when Baelor was king before Viserys II and Aegon IV (the unworthy). Though it is not confirmed yet that Baelor Breakspear was born dark haired, we can infer it with the mention how he took after his mother and how some lords looked at his dark hair and muttered there was more Martell than Targaryen in him. Baelor Breakspear was married to Jenna Dondarrion and had two sons - Valarr and Matarys. Valarr looked like his father, brown hair with a streak of silver-gold running through it (something that occurs more often with Targs). We have no description for Matarys nor Jena. We meet Valarr as an adult in the series about Dunk and Egg. It will not be until F&B II that it will be confirmed whether they were born dark and brown haired.

But since George won't start writing F&B II until after tWoW, and it's very much suggested Baelor took after his Martell mother, and I do not see George "cheating", I'd say your chance of finding a Targaryen whose fair hair darkened with age is non existent.

Furthermore, if you want to use real world examples: the Targaryen fair hair is not the same as real world blond. Their blond is often silver and platina, and along with purple eyes, based on albinistic features. That is the type of blond that cannot darken, for they lack the melanin to produce brown. Whether you believe Targs are carriers of albinistic genes or not is less important than the fact that is the phenotype George borrowed from.

You would be able to convince people more if you could provide actual text to link Quentyn as Aegon, more than lookin gup names in the appendix and match ages. As I said before, I think there is merit in the idea that Varys may have truly saved baby Aegon, but that outside of his knowledge baby Aegon got switched again by another baby. But you need a smoking gun of textual links to the one you propose if you want to convince other people of this. You cannot expect people you mean to convince to put more work into this searching through books, when you who proposes it solely checked appendixes and picked a name.

I do think you might have found a parallel candidate for Aegon (the fair haired dude): with that I mean, a different character who experiences similar life experiences to those of another character, but at some point they make different choices leading to possibly different results. And in the case of Quentyn and Aegon the parallel occurs around the same time. Both are fostered to a different parent than their own. Both are well educated from early age. Both leave to woo Dany around the same time, with the same intent (get her to help them conquer Westeros). Both get their own ideas on how to accomplish their goal with Dany's help: Aegon convinces the GC to conquer Westeros without Dany and dragons, while Quentyn attempts to tame a dragon.

 

[Euron III Greyjoy]

14 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

Why on earth would I say that "for the sake of argument"?  My argument does not require that at all.  ALL children are, at least to some extent, a mix of both parents.  Which is exactly why GRRM's words, as quoted above, use relative, rather than absolute wording.

You are saying that Quentyn Martell, this boy who looks like a Martell is Aegon, correct? Then why would Varys get a Valyrian looking boy to imitate him? 

[The Mother of The Others]

So this makes Doran more competent.  He didn't fail to train "Quentin" sufficiently for field work, rather he purposely sent "Quentin" off to die, not being any son of his really, and Doran knowing Dany's response to a frog in advance.   Clears the way for "Aegon" to claim the throne. 

 

In a way Doran joins Robert's rebellion late.  But also not.   How would Dorne expect to enjoy the heavy favor of the crown they've 'earned' through all this exertion in the dark?  They can't spill the cup of secrets without staining themselves.

[Platypus Rex]

5 hours ago, King Aegon I Targaryen said:

You are saying that Quentyn Martell, this boy who looks like a Martell is Aegon, correct? Then why would Varys get a Valyrian looking boy to imitate him? 

I do not suggest that Varys had anything to do with the swap.  He may not even know about it.

I suggested 2 motives for Doran:  (1) I must send my son to the Yronwoods, for political reasons, but my wife will throw a fit if I do … but my secret nephew looks more like my son than my son does …. hmmm!  (2) Hey, you know it would be kind of cool to put my own son on the Iron Throne.  After all, he looks the part more than my secret nephew does.

I suggested a 3rd motive, that might makes sense even to Varys (assuming he knows about it).  Small children change with age, but Aegon has been hidden since he was one, and now everyone remembers him as a 1 year old toddler with fair hair.   So what is more important?  The perception that Aegon is real?  Or the actuality that Aegon is real?  I remember some parable from Varys that suggests he may regard perceptions as more important than realities.  

[Platypus Rex]

14 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

We did not invent this rule, we simply explained that George built this world, which is not exactly the same as real world. And I explained that all the Targs between Aegon the Conquerer up until Aegon III are described both as children as well as youngsters and adults, all retaining their fair hair. Not one Targ kid starting out fair haired ended up having darker hair as an adult. I do not claim that George has to stick to this pattern, but I do say that George builds up clues and hints to an alternative identity, and if it were the case that a fair haired Targaryen could become a brown or dark haired Targaryen with age (as can happen to blond people in the real world), then he would have described such a Targaryen in either the series itself or any of the side books featuring Targaryens. It is his general writing style to sprinkle clues and evidence for such things, otherwise it would look as if he pulled a rabbit out of a hat.

I mentioned one dark haired child who of course kept her dark hair, but she's not a Targaryen. Jocelyn is the daughter of Rogar Baratheon (black haired) and Alyssa Velaryon, the widow of Aenys (son of Aegon I and king after him).

There are 3 brown haired Targeryens in Fire & Blood: Rhaenyra's first 3 sons, officially fathered by her gay husband Laenor Velaryon, but suspected to be fathered by her champion Strong. These sons are Lucerys, Joffrey and Jacaerys Velaryon. They have brown hair and brown eyes and pug noses. However, make note, that they were born with these features. The reason why people suspect that they were fathered by Harwin Strong was because both Rhaenyra and Laenor are typically Valyrian featured: (platina) blond, aquiline, blue and purple eyed. Nor did these boys grow up to be adults. They were all killed during the Dance of Dragons. Her 2 sons with her uncle Daemon Targaryen, later kings Aegon III and Viserys II, are both born with Valyrian features and retain them throughout life.

It is only three generations later, with Aegon IV's grandson Baelor, that we have a dark haired Targaryen again. Baelor is the son of Daeron II and Mariah Martell. Daeron II looked Targaryen throughout his life, Mariah had the dark Rhoynish features. Aegon IV did not like this marriage, which had not been his own doing. Baelor the Blessed (cousin of Aegon IV) arranged for the marriage between Daeron and Mariah as part of the peace pact with Dorne, when Baelor was king before Viserys II and Aegon IV (the unworthy). Though it is not confirmed yet that Baelor Breakspear was born dark haired, we can infer it with the mention how he took after his mother and how some lords looked at his dark hair and muttered there was more Martell than Targaryen in him. Baelor Breakspear was married to Jenna Dondarrion and had two sons - Valarr and Matarys. Valarr looked like his father, brown hair with a streak of silver-gold running through it (something that occurs more often with Targs). We have no description for Matarys nor Jena. We meet Valarr as an adult in the series about Dunk and Egg. It will not be until F&B II that it will be confirmed whether they were born dark and brown haired.

The pattern you describe above is no different than you would find in any family predominantly composed of adult blonds.  (I'm sure many such families can be found, for instance, in Finland).

If you check to see if Finnish blond adults were also blond at aged 1, then guess what.  I bet that most if not all of them will indeed have been blond at age 1.  That blond Targ adults were also blonds as children is no surprise at all. 

And yes, there are many examples, even in Finland, of dark haired kids who grow up to be dark haired adults.

If the data were available (it isn't) it might make sense to focus on the brown-haired adults, and check to see if any of them were blond as children.  But the data is not available.  It is very rare for history books to say exactly what hue a child's hair was at age 1, and Fire & Blood is no exception.   

The closest you come is a trio of brown haired children, who were born with brown hair.  A trio of related siblings can hardly establish a universal pattern.  For other brown-haired targs, and there is only a handful, you have no information on their hair color at aged one.   Was Baelor aged 1 or aged 3 or older, when the lords looked at his hair and muttered that there was more Martell than Targ in him?  It make a difference you know.

"As I said before, I think there is merit in the idea that Varys may have truly saved baby Aegon, but that outside of his knowledge baby Aegon got switched again by another baby."

I think it's a possibility worthy of investigation.  Sure.

"But you need a smoking gun of textual links to the one you propose if you want to convince other people of this."

Sure.  If I want to convince EVERYBODY I will need a smoking gun.  But I don't have a smoking gun.  Nor do I think that GRRM would necessarily give us one, if the theory were correct.

"You cannot expect people you mean to convince to put more work into this searching through books, when you who proposes it solely checked appendixes and picked a name."

You are under no obligation to do any work at all.  But by the same token, I am under no obligation to believe that GRRM has established some hard rule that Targ kids never darken as they age.

[sweetsunray]

6 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

You are under no obligation to do any work at all.  But by the same token, I am under no obligation to believe that GRRM has established some hard rule that Targ kids never darken as they age.

Then why ask for explanations on it again?

If you want to listen only to yourself, that's fine. Then why post at all? You're the one here who has a theory to sell. Sell it then, instead of asking people whose door your ring to sell you something.

As for the rest: your counterarguments were already dismissed and you failed to actually address the issues wiht your counterarguments. Real world examples are often not applicable, and you completley fail to admit the significance of the fact that EVERY documented fair haired Targ child who managed to grow up into adulthood NEVER darkened as you keep insisting happens so often in the real world (and nobody here argues against the real world fact), obviously believing you are countering the argument, but completely argue beside the point. F&B documents over a century of babies born, growing up or dieing and we get their descriptions. In 130 years no fair haired baby Targ grew up to have darkened hair. There are a minority of dark haired Targs documented in those 130 years, but they were dark haired from the onset. In those 130 years close to 50 Targ children are documented.

Buy by all means consider George a hack cheat writer who pulls rabits out of his hat.

[Platypus Rex]

25 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

"Then why ask for explanations on it again?
If you want to listen only to yourself, that's fine. Then why post at all?" 

I should not have to explain to you why I want to explore or discuss a theory.  

"You're the one here who has a theory to sell."

I'm not selling anything.  I'm discussing.  You don't have to be convinced by what I say, and I don't have to be convinced by what you say.  Just accept that and stop getting petulant.  

"As for the rest: your counterarguments were already dismissed and you failed to actually address."

You're entitled to your opinion.

"... you completley fail to admit the significance of the fact that EVERY documented fair haired Targ child who managed to grow up into adulthood NEVER darkened as you keep insisting happens so often in the real world, obviously believing you are countering the argument, but completely argue beside the point."

I addressed it.  And yes, you're right, I do honestly believe I adequately countered your argument.  You are perfectly free to believe otherwise.

[Platypus Rex]

@Sweetsunray.   Since you complain I did not adequately address your objection, here's a more detailed response.

"We did not invent this rule, ....”

Then provide a quote, showing that GRRM invented it.

“And I explained that all the Targs between Aegon the Conquerer up until Aegon III are described both as children as well as youngsters and adults, all retaining their fair hair.”

Then provide a quote, where GRRM tells us that ALL Targ children (not most) who were blond as toddlers remained blond as adults. 

And don’t change the subject.  I’m aware that the majority of Targs are blond as adults.  I would tend to guess that all these blond adults were also blond as toddlers   I would make the same guess about a family of blond adults in the real world.  Was Agnetha from ABBA blond as a one-year old toddler?  I have no direct knowledge, but I would guess she probably was.  And if I were to meet an all-blond family from Sweden, I would guess they were also blond when they were one year old.

For your claims to be even remotely relevant, you need to focus on Targs who were brown-haired as adults.  However, there are far too few of these to establish some universal pattern, even if you could establish that they were all equally brown, and not a shade more “fair”, as one-year old toddlers.  And you have not even established that. 

“Not one Targ kid starting out fair haired ended up having darker hair as an adult.”

Provide a quote where GRRM says that this never happened.  Or are you just assuming that it never happened because GRRM never explicitly describes it happening?

“I do not claim that George has to stick to this pattern ....”

You have not established such a pattern.  But yes, I agree at least that, even if GRRM had established such a pattern (which apparently, he never did), he would have no obligation to stick to it.

“but I do say that George builds up clues and hints to an alternative identity”

I assume he does.  But you don’t get to dictate what specific clues he MUST provide.

“and if it were the case that a fair haired Targaryen could become a brown or dark haired Targaryen with age (as can happen to blond people in the real world), then he would have described such a Targaryen in either the series itself or any of the side books featuring Targaryens.”

I don’t accept this premise.

One of the advantages of having human beings as your characters, is that you can just assume that normal rules of human physiology apply, without laboriously explaining every detail of early child development  to your readers.

Nor do I accept the premise that if GRRM had a secret, he would make it glaringly obvious.  GRRM may, for now, be perfectly happy to let most readers carelessly assume that because Aegon was had at least one lock of “fair” hair at age one, he must also be “fair” at age 18.

Now, in a less direct sense, GRRM has given us “clues” analogous to what you demand.  He has told us that Shaggydog’s fur started out lighter in tone, but darkened as it aged.  He has told us that Arianne started out more resembling her father, but as she aged, ended up more resembling her mother.  This hints, at least, that GRRM is aware that such things are possible.  But, you will no doubt claim, these clues are not good enough, because they are not specific enough.  Neither are about Targs, and neither are about blond hair turning brown.  But I don’t think you have the right to demand that an author give you clues that are hyper-specific and glaringly obvious.

“It is his general writing style to sprinkle clues and evidence for such things, otherwise it would look as if he pulled a rabbit out of a hat.”

If Quentyn is the real Baby Aegon, it will not look pulled out of a hat.  He dreams of fire and blood.  He’s the right age.  He has visible Martell heritage.  He was sent out to be fostered at age 3, by Doran, who happens to be Baby Aegon’s uncle and next-of-kin.  He is the “frog” who may “turn into a prince [that was promised?] according to Dany’s little joke.  He is practically the only significant character who COULD be Aegon, if Young Griff is not Aegon.

“I mentioned one dark haired child who of course kept her dark hair, ...”

We have plenty of those in the real world too.

“There are 3 brown haired Targeryens in Fire & Blood: Rhaenyra's first 3 sons, officially fathered by her gay husband Laenor Velaryon, but suspected to be fathered by her champion Strong.”

That’s 3 examples of 3 children, all closely related.  How exactly are you going to use this example to establish a universal pattern?

“They have brown hair and brown eyes and pug noses.”

We have plenty brown haired toddlers in the real world too.

“Her 2 sons with her uncle Daemon Targaryen, later kings Aegon III and Viserys II, are both born with Valyrian features and retain them throughout life.”

Blond adults tend to start life as blond toddlers.  The real world is no different.  Most Finns are blond.  So naturally, most blond Finnish children turn into blond Finnish adults.

“It is only three generations later, with Aegon IV's grandson Baelor, that we have a dark haired Targaryen again. Baelor is the son of Daeron II and Mariah Martell.”

Do you have a quote establishing the exact shade of Baelor’s hair at aged one?  If not, then how is this relevant?

“Daeron II looked Targaryen throughout his life ...”

I guess he did.  Again, blond adults tend to start life as blond toddlers.

“Though it is not confirmed yet that Baelor Breakspear was born dark haired, we can infer it with the mention how he took after his mother and how some lords looked at his dark hair and muttered there was more Martell than Targaryen in him.”

Do you have a quote showing how this muttering about his dark hair occurred when Baelor was only aged 1?  If not, how is this relevant?

“Valarr looked like his father, brown hair with a streak of silver-gold running through it ...”

Then he was both brown and fair at the same time.  Do you have a quote showing that he was no less fair as an adult than he had been as a one-year old toddler?

“We have no description for Matarys nor Jena. We meet Valarr as an adult in the series about Dunk and Egg. It will not be until F&B II that it will be confirmed whether they were born dark and brown haired.”

Lack of data does not support your claimed universal pattern. 

“But since George won't start writing F&B II until after tWoW, and it's very much suggested Baelor took after his Martell mother, and I do not see George "cheating", I'd say your chance of finding a Targaryen whose fair hair darkened with age is non existent.”

You said that George himself had established this pattern.  Now, suddenly, the burden has shifted to me to disprove the pattern he never established.

“Furthermore, if you want to use real world examples: the Targaryen fair hair is not the same as real world blond. Their blond is often silver and platina, and along with purple eyes, based on albinistic features. That is the type of blond that cannot darken, for they lack the melanin to produce brown.”

Obviously it is possible for Targs to produce melanin, as some have black or brown hair.  Some have blond streaks in dark hair, as you yourself have shown.

Blond hair never acquires melanin.  What happens is, it falls out, and gets replaced by new hair that, for whatever reason, sometimes contains more melanin.

The only data we have on Aegon is that he was to some extent “fair” at age one; and that he looked “more like a Targaryen” (compared to who?  Rhaenys?).   Where is it established that, despite his Martell heritage, he has some unique Targ hair of a kind that can never fall out and be replaced by hair containing more melanin? 

“Whether you believe Targs are carriers of albinistic genes or not is less important than the fact that is the phenotype George borrowed from.”

GRRM gave us an albino Targ:  Bloodraven.

 

[sweetsunray]

2 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

I should not have to explain to you why I want to explore or discuss a theory.  

"You're the one here who has a theory to sell."

I'm not selling anything.  I'm discussing.  You don't have to be convinced by what I say, and I don't have to be convinced by what you say.  Just accept that and stop getting petulant.  

"As for the rest: your counterarguments were already dismissed and you failed to actually address."

You're entitled to your opinion.

"... you completley fail to admit the significance of the fact that EVERY documented fair haired Targ child who managed to grow up into adulthood NEVER darkened as you keep insisting happens so often in the real world, obviously believing you are countering the argument, but completely argue beside the point."

I addressed it.  And yes, you're right, I do honestly believe I adequately countered your argument.  You are perfectly free to believe otherwise.

A discussion would include actually listening and trying to understand what others try to tell you, and learn something from it, instead of retreating in a defensive trench.

I have tried to explain the weaknesses and attempted to give you actual information (and since F&B isn't in "a search of ice and fire" yet, it requires hours of rereading, scanning pages) for you to actually realize that there is no prior existing evidence that at least some fair haired Targ children darken with age.

You completely failed to address this in any significant way. Your argument so far was : of course blond haired adults never darkened, and were blonde already as children. This is beside the point. If you claim that fair haired Targ babies can darken in hair color with age, and you request for data on this, then our focus group ought to be all the Targ babies described as having fair hair and dark haired Targ adults.

And the answer is that we have about 50 Targ children from F&B. 90-92% of these children were born fair haired. Some of these children fall of the research wagon, because some died 3 days after being born, were stillborn, or die as pre-teen. We cannot compare them to their adult or late-teen version, because they died well before that age. Some die in their teens, but that is old enough for them to have their hair darken as you claim happend to Quentyn. That leaves 80% fair-haired Targs whose hair color we can compare. And ALL of them stay fair-haired.

The 8-10 % non fair haired Targ children are of no interest, since they were born dark haired. You cannot use them to prove that fair Targ hair darkens.

That leaves us with 2 Targs you might be interested in in the future: Baelor Breakspear and his son Vagarr. They are dark and brown haired as adults. We have no desciption for them as children, since they feature only in the World Book and Dunk &Egg story. They are born several decades after the ending of the timeline of F&B. Any confirmation on their hair color as baby will need to wait until George writes F&B-2, which he already said, he certainly won't do before tWoW is out, nor has he confirmed he would even write it right after tWoW. And of course, since tWoW will come out before you will ever know what Baelor Breakspear and Vagarr had as hair color when born, I can bet you that you will not be interested in their hair anymore, as your proposal will be irrelevant by the end of it.

[sweetsunray]

4 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

“And I explained that all the Targs between Aegon the Conquerer up until Aegon III are described both as children as well as youngsters and adults, all retaining their fair hair.”

Then provide a quote, where GRRM tells us that ALL Targ children (not most) who were blond as toddlers remained blond as adults. 

I don't need GRRM to tell me  or you that. Just read F&B, open a spreadsheet and start data keeping. Every Targ baby born is described to us in there, including those who live but a day. And no, I'm not going to quote the whole book.

[Platypus Rex]

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

A discussion would include actually listening and trying to understand what others try to tell you, and learn something from it, 

And the answer is that we have about 50 Targ children from F&B. 90-92% of these children were born fair haired. Some of these children fall of the research wagon, because some died 3 days after being born, were stillborn, or die as pre-teen. We cannot compare them to their adult or late-teen version, because they died well before that age. Some die in their teens, but that is old enough for them to have their hair darken as you claim happend to Quentyn. That leaves 80% fair-haired Targs whose hair color we can compare. And ALL of them stay fair-haired.

The 8-10 % non fair haired Targ children are of no interest, since they were born dark haired. You cannot use them to prove that fair Targ hair darkens.

That leaves us with 2 Targs you might be interested in in the future: Baelor Breakspear and his son Vagarr. They are dark and brown haired as adults. We have no desciption for them as children, since they feature only in the World Book and Dunk &Egg story. They are born several decades after the ending of the timeline of F&B. Any confirmation on their hair color as baby will need to wait until George writes F&B-2, which he already said, he certainly won't do before tWoW is out, nor has he confirmed he would even write it right after tWoW. And of course, since tWoW will come out before you will ever know what Baelor Breakspear and Vagarr had as hair color when born, I can bet you that you will not be interested in their hair anymore, as your proposal will be irrelevant by the end of it.

As the saying goes, there are "lies, damned lies and statistics".  You are demonstrating this perfectly with this nonsense argument.  Let's take a look at all the problems with your Grand Statistical Proof.

First off, 50 Targs is FAR too small a sample size to demonstrate that something is impossible.  How many of those 50 kids were born albino?  None?  Congratulations, you just disproved Bloodraven.  How many were born with mismatched eyes?  None?  Congratulations, you just disproved Shiera Seastar.

But it gets worse.  You are trying to buttress your sample size with a heap of irrelevant data.  The only question before us, is whether it is possible for brown haired adults (or older children) to have been "fair" as one year old toddlers.  Those Targs that were known to be brown, when older, should be the only ones that should interest us.

Blonds should not interest us.  Predictably, they started life as blond children.  Black-haired people should not interest us.  Almost as predictably, they did not start life a blond children.  It is in brown haired adults (and older children), that we often see a blond when we look at baby pictures.

We know that brown haired Targs exist.  But they are rare.  How many have you come up with?  Five!  Count em! Five.  This is your amazing huge grand sample.  This would be FAR FAR FAR too small a sample to establish your claim, even if you could prove that EACH AND EVERY ONE OF THEM started life as a brown haired toddler, and not a blond haired toddler.

But it gets even worse.  These five are not independent examples.  They consist of 1 set of 3 brothers; and another father/son set.  It is reasonable to expect that people so closely related will share similar characteristics.  So basically, your grand sample basically boils down to TWO independent examples, whose patterns will not necessarily be followed by people of different genetic heritage.

But it gets even worse, in only ONE of these sets (the 3 bastard sons of Harwin Strong) do you claim proof that they started life as brown-haired babies.  In the other set (Breakspear and Vagarr) you admit you have no idea whether they were more "fair" as children or not.

So in the end, your Grand Statistical Proof boils down to a SINGLE EXAMPLE of a trio of brothers who were born brown and remained brown.  So what?  We have plenty of examples like that in the real world too!

Also, you left out Daeron Targaryen, son of Maekar.  He had sandy brown hair, and AFAIK we have no idea whether he was born "fair" or not.  There is also Rhaenys, Baby Aegon's sister.  We know she was brown when murdered at age 4, but AFAIK we have no data on what she looked like at age 1.

GRRM has not established the rule you are trying to lay down.  It is simply your own assumption that you are trying to shove down my throat, along with a heavy dose of rudeness, arrogance, and condescension.

The typical Targ blond baby has a blond mom, and blond dad, and some blond older siblings.  It can safely be assumed that he will remain blond as he ages.  Baby Aegon had a brown-haired mom, and a brown-haired older sister.  It CANNOT be safely assumed that he will remain blond as he ages.

[The Mother of The Others]

Uhhhhhhhh,   has there ever been a Targaryen with a huge cowlic?

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, Platypus Rex said:

As the saying goes, there are "lies, damned lies and statistics".  You are demonstrating this perfectly with this nonsense argument.  Let's take a look at all the problems with your Grand Statistical Proof.

First off, 50 Targs is FAR too small a sample size to demonstrate that something is impossible.  How many of those 50 kids were born albino?  None?  Congratulations, you just disproved Bloodraven.  How many were born with mismatched eyes?  None?  Congratulations, you just disproved Shiera Seastar.

Bull, and illogic.

Sample size:

(1) real world statistics does allow for sample sizes lower than 100, and even lower than 20.

(2) The total sample size of Targs since conquering as far as 300 AC is less than 100. So, the sample size of F&B is half of the total.

(3) this is literature, where George uses simplified genetics with Ned looking at a book of houses, and on the less than 10 sample size of Baratheon-Lannister children concludes that the offspring is always black haired.

Turning around logic: just because A leads to conclusion B, you cannot say, we have a D and an F, where is the C and the E?

Bloodraven (the D) is already established in Dunk &Egg stories and the World Book and aSoIaF. There is no need to introduce a smoking gun to establish the possibility of his existence in F&B 1 (the demanded C). We are already sure that he will appear in the unwritten F&B 2.

Shiera Seastar (the F) is also already established in the World Book. And you're wrong. There is actually one Targ with mismatched eyes in F&B. Alyssa Targaryen, daughter of Jahaerys and Alysanne, wife to Baelon Targaryen.

 

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But it gets worse.  You are trying to buttress your sample size with a heap of irrelevant data.  The only question before us, is whether it is possible for brown haired adults to have been "fair" as one year old toddlers.  Those Targs that were known to be brown, as adults, should be the only ones that should interest us.

Blond adults should not interest us.  Predictably, they started life as blond children.  Black-haired adults should not interest us.  Almost as predictably, they did not start life a blond children.  It is in brown haired adults (and older children), that we often see a blond when we look at baby pictures.

Straw man. The sample of relevance are fair haired Targ children + brown/dark haired adults. With the first you check for evidence if their hair darkens. with the second you check whether they were blond as babies or toddlers.

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We know that brown haired Targs exist.  But they are rare.  How many have you come up with?  Five!  Count em! Five.  This is your amazing huge grand sample.  This would be FAR FAR FAR too small a sample to establish your claim, even if you could prove that EACH AND EVERY ONE OF THEM started life as a brown haired toddler, and not a blond haired toddler.

No, it isn't too small a sample. It's more than 5% of all the Targs born between 0-300 AC.

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But it gets even worse.  These five are not independent examples.  They consist of 1 set of 3 brothers; and another father/son set.  It is reasonable to expect that people so closely related will share similar characteristics.  So basically, your grand sample basically boils down to TWO independent examples, whose patterns will not necessarily be followed by people of different genetic heritage.

Euhm as far as I know it's completely logical for relatives to have features in common with a parent or sibling. Is that not exactly also true for Aegon in relation to Elia and Rhaegar, and Quentyn in relation to Doran and the known siblings such as Arianne.

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But it gets even worse, in only ONE of these sets (the 3 bastard sons of Harwin Strong) do you claim proof that they started life as brown-haired babies.  In the other set (Breakspear and Vagarr) you admit you have no idea whether they were more "fair" as children or not.

Wow, is it a crime now to be honest about the data we have?

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Also, you left out Daeron Targaryen, son of Maekar.  He had sandy brown hair, and AFAIK we have no idea whether he was born "fair" or not.  There is also Rhaenys, Baby Aegon's sister.  We know she was brown when murdered at age 4, but AFAIK we have no data on what she looked like at age 1.

Yes, Daeron Targaryen is another.

Rhaenys was born dark haired and darker skinned. Aerys disapproved of her as her baby on account of being too Dornish.

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GRRM has not established the rule you are trying to lay down.  It is simply your own assumption that you are trying to shove down my throat, along with a heavy dose of rudeness, arrogance, and condescension.

He has described around 50 Targ babies, and all the fair haired babies that did grow up ended up as fair haired adults. In that sense F&B is the equivalent of Ned checking hair color of offspring between Lannisters and Baratheons. You can have a hissyfit over that fact as much as you want, you can try to reason around it as illogically as you want, it won't change that.

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The typical Targ blond baby has a blond mom, and blond dad, and some blond older siblings.  It can safely be assumed that he will remain blond as he ages.  Baby Aegon had a brown-haired mom, and a brown-haired older sister.  It CANNOT be safely assumed that he will remain blond as he ages.

Almost correct: it cannot be safely assumed that all offspring will be either all blond haired, or all dark haired. Instead the result is a mix of some offspring ending up dark haired, and other offspring ending up blond.

But hey, perhaps you should start applying this high standard of sample size and evidence on dark haired adults not being proven to have been born with blonde hair to your evidence for this switch between real baby Aegon and real Quentyn: all you had as sample was the aGoT appendix, just one character about half a year to 1 year older than Aegon, who was fostered. Not to mention all the issues and questions your proposal creates. As of now, it's still not clear to me, when you propose this switch happened, and before being fostered out, Quentyn and Aegon lived? Did they both live in Sunspear before being fostered? Wouldn't Arianne (who is much older than Quentyn) remember them? And since at least both babies ought to have been fair-haired when they were switched, wouldn't Arianne remember her brother as such? We after all have her POV, no? And what with the subtle hints that Illyrio may be Aegon's father with Serra? Was Aegon switched three times then? How does real baby Aegon end up in Dorne and not with Varys's partner Illyrio? I'm sure you can come up with "could" a lot, but without even one textual suggestion, a whiff of a wink from George to the reader, for it to back it up.

[Platypus Rex]

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

"(1) real world statistics does allow for sample sizes lower than 100, and even lower than 20."

In an appropriate context, sure.  In this context, absolutely not.  Otherwise, you could prove, in the real world, that it is impossible for a blond haired toddler to ever brown as it ages, using methods EXACTLY like those you have just used.

"this is literature, where George uses simplified genetics with Ned looking at a book of houses, and on the less than 10 sample size of Baratheon-Lannister children concludes that the offspring is always black haired"

That's not simplified genetics.  It is just medieval genetics as employed by characters that are not modern scientists.  It COULD have been explained in modern scientific terms, but that would have been anachronistic. 

It's just a different problem that uses different logic.  The sample size is appropriate to the problem.

"The sample of relevance are fair haired Targ children + brown/dark haired adults. With the first you check for evidence if their hair darkens. with the second you check whether they were blond as babies or toddlers."

In the second, you would tend to expect the blond children to grow up to be blond adults IF both their parents were blond as adults, which is the case for the vast majority of your sample.  One would NOT expect them to be representative of a child with one dark haired parent, who happened to be born blond.

It might make sense to take this approach, IF there were reason to believe the population of babies were more representative of Aegon (e.g., babies of one blond and one dark parent), but that is obviously not the case.  

As it is, there is no reason to waste time checking them, unless you are trying to stuff the ballot box with children who are predictably expected to be blonds as adults, because both parents were blond as adults.  And stuffing the ballot box is what you are obviously trying to do. 

"No, it isn't too small a sample. It's more than 5% of all the Targs born between 0-300 AC."

Total non-sequitur.  Demonstrating a complete lack of understanding.

"Wow, is it a crime now to be honest about the data we have?"

No, I'm grateful for your admission that the data does not support you.  Now carry this honesty a step further, and let it sink in that you overstepped your claims.  Stop trying to have your cake and eat it too.

[sweetsunray]

45 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

In an appropriate context, sure.  In this context, absolutely not.  Otherwise, you could prove, in the real world, that it is impossible for a blond haired toddler to ever brown as it ages, using methods EXACTLY like those you have just used.

In this literature context it is absolutely correct. I don't know many series where you actually get a sample of 50 children. I have always agreed that in the real world it is possible for blond haired toddlers to have darker hair with age.

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"this is literature, where George uses simplified genetics with Ned looking at a book of houses, and on the less than 10 sample size of Baratheon-Lannister children concludes that the offspring is always black haired"

That's not simplified genetics.  It is just medieval genetics as employed by characters that are not modern scientists.  It COULD have been explained in modern scientific terms, but that would have been anachronistic. 

It's just a different problem that uses different logic.  The sample size is appropriate to the problem.

It is simplified genetics. Because strictly real world speaking a family deriving from Targs, especially as recent as Robert, Stannis and Renly has a great chance of carrying recessive genes for blond hair, and if they intermarried with Lannisters before, then even black haired offspring would be carriers of blond hair, etc.

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"The sample of relevance are fair haired Targ children + brown/dark haired adults. With the first you check for evidence if their hair darkens. with the second you check whether they were blond as babies or toddlers."

In the second, you would tend to expect the blond children to grow up to be blond adults IF both their parents were blond, which is the case for the vast majority of your sample.  One would NOT expect them to be representative of a child with one dark haired parent, who happened to be born blond.

But not all had blond haired parents. Jocelyn Baratheon is black haired, and her daughter with Aemon Targaryen, Rhaenys Targaryen, is blond haired. And even Daeron II married to Mariah Martell (who has Sand Dornish blood through and through) has only one dark haired son of the 4 sons they have. It has been observed and suggested by readers that with marriages between fair-haired male Targs and dark haired wives, only the first born has the features of the wife, while with every child after the first born the Targaryen features prevail in the offspring.

Daeron II - Mariah Martell: Baelor (dark Dornish), Aerys (Valyrian), Rhaegel (Valyrian), Maekar (Valyrian)

Maekar I - Dyanna Dayne: Daeron (sandy brown), Aerion (Valyrian), Aemon (Valyrian), ... Aegon V (Valyrian)

Aegon V - Betha Blackwood: Duncan (brown haired, oh another one to watch for), Jaehaerys (Valyrian), Shaera (Valyrian), Daeron (Valyrian), Rhaelle (Valyrian)

Rhaegar - Elia Martell: Rhaenys (dark), Aegon (Valyrian)

The sole exception in this pattern is Aemon Targaryen married to Jocelyn Baratheon. But we know of her that she was the daughter of Valyrian looking Alyssa Velaryon and black haired Rogar Baratheon.

Some people used this pattern to advocate that Targaryen semen does something to non-Valyrian wombs, so that after the first child, their dark haired (and dark eyed) genetics are put in some dormant mode.

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It might make sense to take this approach, IF there were reason to believe the population of babies were more representative of Aegon (e.g., babies of one blond and one dark parent), but that is obviously not the case.  

See above pattern

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As it is, there is no reason to waste time checking them, unless you are trying to stuff the ballot box with children who are predictably expected to blonds as adults, because both parents are blond as adults.  As you are obviously trying to do. 

Euhm nope. In the real world, children of two parents with blonde hair, can still darken with age. The darkening of blonde isn't a genetic thing based on having a dark haired parent, but an aging thing. The amount of eumalenin produced ramps up with age, darkening the hair by the age of 10, with a dark blonde or light brown as a result for children with both parents having blonde hair. 

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"No, it isn't too small a sample. It's more than 5% of all the Targs born between 0-300 AC."

Total non-sequitur.  Demonstrating a complete lack of understanding.

Lol, who is condescending here?

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"Wow, is it a crime now to be honest about the data we have?"

No, I'm grateful for your admission that the data does not support you.  Now carry this honesty a step further, and let it sink in that you overstepped your claims.  Stop trying to have your cake and eat it too.

Honesty requires the evidence is inconclusive to make a statement about their childhood hair color either way. I did not overstep my claim, which was, up until now in all the published books at present there is no evidence of a fair haired Targ baby becoming a brown haired adult, which would be the smoking gun for the reader to use as evidence that the same thing could have happened to fair haired baby Aegon. I offered you the names of darker haired Targs, and you have no evidence they were born fair haired. Evidence needs to be postive one (as in: it happens), not a negative one, which is exactly why I brought up the positive evidence of all known surviving fair haired Targ babies ending up as fair haired Targ adults (positive evidence).

Honesty requires you don't apply double standards on evidence: you own evidence on anything you propose = 0, not a quote, nothing, nada, zero, but demanding all sorts of impossible standards on evidence offered that contradicts with your claims.

[Platypus Rex]

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

In this literature context it is absolutely correct. I don't know many series where you actually get a sample of 50 children. I have always agreed that in the real world it is possible for blond haired toddlers to have darker hair with age.

"Literary logic" is highly subjective.  If that's what you are going to retreat to, then you have to accept that I am entitled to my own opinion.  What you think is a "literary logic" clue proving that Quentyn cannot be Aegon, I may think of as a "literary logic" red herring distracting the reader from the correct solution.  Your implicit admission that this makes no real world sense, makes this, to my mind, more appropriate for a red herring than a clue.

You don't have to believe that Quentyn is Baby Aegon.  Nor do I have to accept that you have offered a compelling objection to that possibility.  Is that not fair?  Can we not agree to disagree?

[sweetsunray]

6 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

"Literary logic" is highly subjective.  If that's what you are going to retreat to, then you have to accept that I am entitled to my own opinion.  What you think is a "literary logic" clue proving that Quentyn cannot be Aegon, I may think of as a "literary logic" red herring distracting the reader from the correct solution.  Your implicit admission that this makes no real world sense, makes this, to my mind, more appropriate for a red herring than a clue.

You don't have to believe that Quentyn is Baby Aegon.  Nor do I have to accept that you have offered a compelling objection to that possibility.  Is that not fair?  Can we not agree to disagree?

As I said, believe whatever you want, Platypus, but if you aim to convince people of your proposal, you are the one who needs to provide evidence. And general evidence logic requires the hypothesis or claim to be on the side that makes it easy to disprove. If you can provide me with one, just one, character whose baby fair hair became natural dark hair (without dyeing), then I will gladly admit that you have a case.

Painting a non-occurrence in the course of 8 published books as a "red herring" is silly.

[Platypus Rex]

2 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

but if you aim to convince people of your proposal

I'm not trying to convince YOU.  Have a nice day.