U.S. Politics: It’s beginning to look a lot like Rescission

[Fragile Bird]

3 hours ago, The Great Unwashed said:

The fundamentals of the economy are weaker than last year but still relatively strong, but if Donnie Dipshit can't learn to stop his itchy Twitter finger from firing off a stupidity-laden tweet, then he's going to push us into a recession, fundamentals be damned.

David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin, Sheff in Toronto, formerly at Merrill Lynch before they went down, was on CNBC last week and talked about how much the US economy was weakening. Iirc, he said if you stripped out inventories from 3rd quarter numbers the economy only grew at a rate of 1%. A far cry from the 4% rate Trump said the US economy would grow at while he was president.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

12 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Sorry, it's EVEN WORSE ON VIDEO.

https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1077375011600678912

What an ass.  

[DMC]

16 hours ago, Triskele said:

What do you guys think is the likeliest of the three scenarios that the Atlantic piece proposes is?

I agree with Kal that it's almost surely option one - if it wasn't Trump or one of his idiot brood that told Mnuchin to do it in the first place.

[LongRider]

Merry Christmas Everyone!

Quote

Another migrant child has died in Border Patrol custody, this time an 8-year-old Guatemalan boy.

The unidentified boy died early Tuesday, Christmas Day, at the Gerald Champion Regional Medical Center in Alamogordo, New Mexico, Customs and Border Protection confirmed to the Daily News.

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-news-guatemalan-child-migrant-dead-20181225-story.html

[Martell Spy]

Quote

 

BEIJING — Japanese stocks plunged Tuesday and other Asian markets declined following heavy Wall Street losses triggered by President Donald Trump’s criticism of the U.S. central bank.

The Nikkei 225 fell by an unusually wide margin of 5 percent to 19,155.14. The Shanghai Composite Index ended off 0.9 percent at 2,504.82 after being down as much as 2.3 percent at midday. Benchmarks in Thailand and Taiwan also declined.

 

Asian markets fall after U.S. losses

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/25/asian-markets-fall-after-us-losses-1075217

[Rippounet]

23 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Sorry, it's EVEN WORSE ON VIDEO.

https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1077375011600678912

I don't know if it makes the work of comedians like John Oliver or Stephen Colbert easier. On the one hand, the material is endless, but on the other hand they require ever less commentary.

[BigFatCoward]

16 hours ago, LongRider said:

Merry Christmas Everyone!

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-news-guatemalan-child-migrant-dead-20181225-story.html

Loath as I am to defend the policy, my reading of the reports is that the child died due to the rigours of the journey, not due to anything that happened in the detention centre. 

[LongRider]

1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said:

Loath as I am to defend the policy, my reading of the reports is that the child died due to the rigours of the journey, not due to anything that happened in the detention centre. 

the child had been in custody since Dec 18 and this article puts him as being noticed as sick six days later 

Quote

The boy, identified by Guatemalan authorities as Felipe Gómez Alonzo, had been in CBP’s custody with his father, Agustin Gomez, since Dec. 18. CBP said in a statement late Tuesday that an agent first noticed the boy had a cough and “glossy eyes” at about 9 a.m. Monday. He was eventually hospitalized twice and died just before midnight, the agency said.

also from same article

Quote

HOUSTON (AP) — U.S. Customs and Border Protection have ordered medical checks on every child in its custody after an 8-year-old boy from Guatemala died, marking the second death of an immigrant child in the agency’s care this month.

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

On 12/25/2018 at 8:19 AM, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

What an ass.  

Perhaps this is a religious divide, but I would hope a 7 year old would know that Santa isn’t real.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

17 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Perhaps this is a religious divide, but I would hope a 7 year old would know that Santa isn’t real.

I still believe in Santa.  

(“There are more things in Heaven and on Earth than are dreamt of in your philosophy”)

[Mexal]

20 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Perhaps this is a religious divide, but I would hope a 7 year old would know that Santa isn’t real.

7 year olds don't always know that and ignoring that, the whole thing was about kids calling in to ask where Santa was.

[BigFatCoward]

2 hours ago, LongRider said:

the child had been in custody since Dec 18 and this article puts him as being noticed as sick six days later 

also from same article

 

Again, don't want to defend the policy but that doesn't refute that they died due to the rigours of the journey. There is nothing to suggest they died due to their treatment while in detention. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

56 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I still believe in Santa.  

(“There are more things in Heaven and on Earth than are dreamt of in your philosophy”)

Why? It’s like believing in elves or orcs or Bigfoot.   

57 minutes ago, Mexal said:

7 year olds don't always know that and ignoring that, the whole thing was about kids calling in to ask where Santa was.

Eh, I think by seven you should have figured it out, and let’s be real, we’re lying to kids about a meaningless thing. This is the rare time where I actually agree with Trump (while also getting why the optics are bad).

[Altherion]

The next episode of The Adventures of Steve Bannon is out:

 

Quote

Inside the stone walls of the Trisulti monastery, for more than eight centuries, monks have lived in quiet seclusion, praying, reading and concocting medicinal remedies with herbs from the surrounding forest.

But now, only one 83-year-old monk remains. A longtime chef-gardener still lives there, as well, along with several dozen feral cats. The other resident at Trisulti is the newcomer: a 43-year-old Briton who is one of Stephen K. Bannon’s closest associates in Europe and who hopes to transform the monastery into a “gladiator school for culture warriors.”

One recent morning, Benjamin Harnwell, the Bannon acolyte, grabbed his ring of keys and moved from one building to the next, through hidden passageways and into frescoed rooms, where he said the next mission at this site was about to take form.

Soon, he said, the monastery would be filled with students who wanted to master the tools of populist politics. The halls with centuries-old oil paintings would serve as classrooms where students could learn “the facts” — the worldview espoused by Bannon, who, since being booted from the White House and Breitbart News, has turned to fomenting right-wing populism in Europe and beyond.

 

[mormont]

1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said:

Again, don't want to defend the policy but that doesn't refute that they died due to the rigours of the journey. There is nothing to suggest they died due to their treatment while in detention. 

Yeah, but there isn't a reason - given all we know - to be giving the benefit of the doubt here. At the very least, people are entitled to wonder if the authorities did all they could to help the child survive, given how they've neglected or abused other such children.

[Guy Kilmore]

32 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Why? It’s like believing in elves or orcs or Bigfoot.   

Eh, I think by seven you should have figured it out, and let’s be real, we’re lying to kids about a meaningless thing. This is the rare time where I actually agree with Trump (while also getting why the optics are bad).

“All right," said Susan. "I'm not stupid. You're saying humans need... fantasies to make life bearable."

REALLY? AS IF IT WAS SOME KIND OF PINK PILL? NO. HUMANS NEED FANTASY TO BE HUMAN. TO BE THE PLACE WHERE THE FALLING ANGEL MEETS THE RISING APE.

"Tooth fairies? Hogfathers? Little—"

YES. AS PRACTICE. YOU HAVE TO START OUT LEARNING TO BELIEVE THE LITTLE LIES.

"So we can believe the big ones?"

YES. JUSTICE. MERCY. DUTY. THAT SORT OF THING.

"They're not the same at all!"

YOU THINK SO? THEN TAKE THE UNIVERSE AND GRIND IT DOWN TO THE FINEST POWDER AND SIEVE IT THROUGH THE FINEST SIEVE AND THEN SHOW ME ONE ATOM OF JUSTICE, ONE MOLECULE OF MERCY. AND YET—Death waved a hand. AND YET YOU ACT AS IF THERE IS SOME IDEAL ORDER IN THE WORLD, AS IF THERE IS SOME...SOME RIGHTNESS IN THE UNIVERSE BY WHICH IT MAY BE JUDGED.

"Yes, but people have got to believe that, or what's the point—"

MY POINT EXACTLY.” 
― Terry Pratchett, Hogfather

I think that Norad phone call just says a ton about Trump.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

5 minutes ago, Guy Kilmore said:

“All right," said Susan. "I'm not stupid. You're saying humans need... fantasies to make life bearable."

REALLY? AS IF IT WAS SOME KIND OF PINK PILL? NO. HUMANS NEED FANTASY TO BE HUMAN. TO BE THE PLACE WHERE THE FALLING ANGEL MEETS THE RISING APE.

"Tooth fairies? Hogfathers? Little—"

YES. AS PRACTICE. YOU HAVE TO START OUT LEARNING TO BELIEVE THE LITTLE LIES.

"So we can believe the big ones?"

YES. JUSTICE. MERCY. DUTY. THAT SORT OF THING.

"They're not the same at all!"

YOU THINK SO? THEN TAKE THE UNIVERSE AND GRIND IT DOWN TO THE FINEST POWDER AND SIEVE IT THROUGH THE FINEST SIEVE AND THEN SHOW ME ONE ATOM OF JUSTICE, ONE MOLECULE OF MERCY. AND YET—Death waved a hand. AND YET YOU ACT AS IF THERE IS SOME IDEAL ORDER IN THE WORLD, AS IF THERE IS SOME...SOME RIGHTNESS IN THE UNIVERSE BY WHICH IT MAY BE JUDGED.

"Yes, but people have got to believe that, or what's the point—"

MY POINT EXACTLY.” 
― Terry Pratchett, Hogfather

I think that Norad phone call just says a ton about Trump.

Lovely.  Just beautiful.  

[A Horse Named Stranger]

34 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Why? It’s like believing in elves or orcs or Bigfoot.   

Dude spoiler.

Anyway, it was not for Donnie Doofus to kill the belief of that child! And tbh I have no idea, when I gave upon believing in Santa. Age 7, that's what second grade?

I guess the parents among the boarders can help me out, when their kids gave upon believing in Santa.

 

[BigFatCoward]

36 minutes ago, mormont said:

Yeah, but there isn't a reason - given all we know - to be giving the benefit of the doubt here. At the very least, people are entitled to wonder if the authorities did all they could to help the child survive, given how they've neglected or abused other such children.

Dont dispute any of that. But the way the headlines were being written implied that a perfectly healthy child died due to neglect. That is a bit of a stretch considering the journey they had been on prior to them being locked up.

[Maithanet]

A lot has been written about so called "Obama-Trump" voters who switched from supporting Obama to voting Republican in 2016.  However, it's always been difficult to pin down exactly how many people this is, and why they made this change.  A lot less has been written about the high number of third party voters in 2016 (to the point that a google search didn't come up with anything I could link).

Look at the numbers.  In 2012, Romney won 47.2% of the country and lost in "tipping point" state of Colorado by 5%.  In 2016, Trump won 46.1% of the votes, and won the "tipping point" state of Wisconsin by 0.8%.  So this idea that it was Trump's popularity with the white working class which propelled him to victory has always been questionable.  It seems to me that the big factor that nobody really talks about in 2016 is that 5.7% of voters chose to reject both parties, whereas in 2012 that number was only 1.7%. 

I'm not looking to re-litigate 2016 here, we've done that enough already.  I'm just thinking that as Democrats start looking for their 2020 champion, they ought to keep in mind this significant voter pool, many of which might actually be convinceable, unlike the largely mythical "undecided voter".  Looking at it that way, it is hard to believe that the difference between 2012 and 2016 was policy.  The election was rarely about policy anyway, and the differences between Clinton/Obama policywise were small.  It seems that the difference was a matter of character and image.  Both candidates had historically high unfavorability ratings, and it's a pretty straight line to think that this motivated some people to make a protest vote.  Unfortunately, it is difficult to determine which candidates would be broadly acceptable and scandal free two years before the election. 

Biden has a bad track record here in his presidential runs, but he navigated 8 years of being VP without much issue.  Sanders can be quite polarizing, both for his policies and his presentation.  Beto and Booker are both young and try to present themselves as relentlessly positive, but will that work in a national campaign with Trump slinging mud at you for a year?  Is Warren's difficulty with the "Pocohontas" nonsense indicative of vulnerability to demonization?