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lokisnow

U.S. Politics: It’s beginning to look a lot like Rescission

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19 minutes ago, lokisnow said:

I don’t think it’s very hard:

1) expand Medicare gradually down to 55 over 5 years so newly eligible people but still in the workforce can voluntarily enroll. To encourage quick turnover, write a statute that forces employers to pay (the people that switch) the amount said employer was paying for that employee’s healthcare (or the employer pays a penalty of 1 million per employee per month if they don’t give the “raise”).

2) basically the same, but expand Medicaid salary caps up.

3) to encourage rapid uptake for the newly eligible, pay a one time bounty of $2000 to every person that switches into Medicare and Medicaid plan.

(Stairstep up the withholding rates  annually to cover the stair step expansions, but max out at doubling both, additionally make the withholding more progressive, doubles after 1 million, add extra progressive  taxes for all non primary dwelling capital gains over 1 million)

Alternatively, allow employers to buy into the Medicare and Medicaid markets, which means the private plans have to compete with them, but probably results in a slower switch and a switch with less upside to the insurance markets (the above takes the oldest and poorest off their plans leaving them with middle class young ish healthy people=higher profits per remaining user).

Something like this is the way to go, I think.

I won't shed many tears, if employer sponsored healthcare goes the way of the dinosaur. But, the phase out, needs to be gradual, to allow people to adjust to the new system.

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52 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

Something like this is the way to go, I think.

I won't shed many tears, if employer sponsored healthcare goes the way of the dinosaur. But, the phase out, needs to be gradual, to allow people to adjust to the new system.

Right, politically, obviously it’s not “easy” but any changes to the employer sponsored system need two elements:

1) pro switching incentives that are straightforward and focused on individuals. The above gives two big pros, everyone that switches gets an immediate raise and they also get cash on the table from the bounty. 

2) stairstep into the changes so overall people don’t experience a personal shock. This also creates a constituency of people advocating to continue the expansion along these same lines so that they’re not left out.

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Miller’s volume grew louder, his voice deeper, and his tone more aggressive. He nearly shouted at Brennan about “a reckless nationwide injunction on the president’s order putting thousands of lives at risk.” To get in a question about the border wall, Brennan had to interject repeatedly and lean across the table. Once Miller trailed off, she asked whether Trump would allow a government shutdown if Congress doesn’t give him enough funding for the wall. Miller said the president is “absolutely” willing, as Trump himself made clear last week in his televised Oval Office argument with top congressional Democrats.

“This is a very fundamental issue,” Miller thundered. “At stake is the question of whether or not the United States remains a sovereign country.” As he lectured Brennan on the costs of heroin smuggled into the country, he held up his hand to chop the air for emphasis. When Brennan seized the opening and tried to ask whether there will be a government shutdown over Christmas, he repeatedly talked over her as she finished her question:

Miller: As you yourself acknowledged, the largest increases in illegal immigration are categories that are incentivized by loopholes in our laws and loopholes created by activist, left-wing judges including—

Brennan: I didn’t say that.

Miller: —the district-court judge who enjoined—

Brennan: I said there are a record number happening right now in the Trump administration.

Miller: —in the categories that correspond with these loopholes.

 

Stephen Miller as MAGA’s Angry Id
On Face the Nation, the president’s trusted domestic-policy adviser said the border wall was fundamental to “whether or not the United States remains a sovereign country.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/12/stephen-miller-appeared-scripted-and-angry-sunday/578293/

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Cohen’s plea deal in August, followed by his three-year prison sentence earlier this month, shows how Mueller can still extract cooperation from witnesses in the satellite investigations. And with multiple U.S. attorney’s offices involved, Trump would face a much greater challenge in halting the Russia investigation or any of its spin-off inquiries. When former FBI Director James Comey testified before the House Oversight Committee earlier this month, a lawmaker asked him what impact Mueller’s dismissal would have on the current investigations. “As an informed outsider, I think that [you’d] almost have to fire everyone in the FBI and the Justice Department to derail the relevant investigations,” he replied, “but I don’t know exactly what the effect would be.”

Was all of this a conscious tactical decision on Mueller’s part? It’s possible that he spun off ancillary avenues of the investigation to avoid Starr’s fate, or to insulate the investigations from disruption if the president fires him. He may have done so for logistical reasons—perhaps he realized his staff couldn’t pursue it all—or to hew to his narrow prosecutorial mandate from the Justice Department. Whatever his intent, the effect has been deeply damaging to Trump’s political standing and legal fortunes, and it’s trending in the wrong direction for the president.

 

Robert Mueller’s Legal Masterpiece
The special counsel has spun a web of investigations that draw closer to Trump every day.

https://newrepublic.com/article/152717/robert-muellers-legal-masterpiece

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Sen. Lamar Alexander of TN will not seek re-election in 2020, first retirement of the next cycle. bredesen 2.0?

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34 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Robert Mueller’s Legal Masterpiece
The special counsel has spun a web of investigations that draw closer to Trump every day.

https://newrepublic.com/article/152717/robert-muellers-legal-masterpiece

Additionally, this, on the same publication website:

https://newrepublic.com/minutes/152723/michael-flynns-associates-indicted-turkey-lobbying-case-casts-shadow-trumps-foreign-policy

Article's closing paragraph -- so among their many criminal acts, these evil doers don't even rule out kidnapping.  But then, they are close friends with Saudi and Russia and many another nation's nefarious regime / rulers  . . . .

Quote

In November 2017, The Wall Street Journal reported, “Special Counsel Robert Mueller is investigating former White House national security adviser Mike Flynn’s alleged role in a plan to forcibly remove a Muslim cleric living in the U.S. and deliver him to Turkey in return for millions of dollars, according to people familiar with the investigation.” The alleged kidnapping reportedly would have involved Flynn and his son receiving $15 million for delivering Gulen to Turkey.

 

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25 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Another wonderful day on Wall St……

Maybe Trump should start making Dow 23,000 hats?

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Ok...

1 - is flipping this seat a realistic democratic prospect?

2 - Any realistic chance Lamar will go the Flake route and start bucking the Republican agenda?

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/tennessee-gop-senator-lamar-alexander-announces-retirement/ar-BBR5AGb?ocid=msnclassic

Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander announced Monday he will not run for re-election in 2020, saying it’s time for “someone else” to have the privilege of representing Tennessee in the Senate.

 

“I will not be a candidate for re-election to the United States Senate in 2020,” the 78-year-old Alexander said in a statement.

Alexander, the chairman of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, previously served as governor of Tennessee. He also worked as secretary of the Department of Education under then-President George H.W. Bush.

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Just now, ThinkerX said:

Ok...

1 - is flipping this seat a realistic democratic prospect?

2 - Any realistic chance Lamar will go the Flake route and start bucking the Republican agenda?

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/tennessee-gop-senator-lamar-alexander-announces-retirement/ar-BBR5AGb?ocid=msnclassic

1.  It's an outside shot, if the Republicans pick a very weak candidate.  It might not take "probably a pedophile" level bad, but I doubt very much that merely "makes favorable reference to lynchings" bad would be enough. 

2.  I wouldn't count on Lamar Alexander coming through for anything. 

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The environment also somewhat matters. If, for example, people are pissed off at the senate because they won't impeach an obviously guilty person, that might change things.

But mostly no, it's not remotely flippable. 

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2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Maybe Trump should start making Dow 23,000 hats?

We'll be lucky to stay there given the current trend. Google the dow and look at the 1 and 6 month trend. Not inspiring. Looks like FB gets to claim a W there. 

 

29 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

The environment also somewhat matters. If, for example, people are pissed off at the senate because they won't impeach an obviously guilty person, that might change things.

But mostly no, it's not remotely flippable. 

Yep, and if the economy crashes, and the public blames Republicans, Democrats can win in most places, such as Tennessee. 

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2 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

Ok...

1 - is flipping this seat a realistic democratic prospect?

2 - Any realistic chance Lamar will go the Flake route and start bucking the Republican agenda?

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/tennessee-gop-senator-lamar-alexander-announces-retirement/ar-BBR5AGb?ocid=msnclassic

 

 

Totally possible given a strong D candidate and a weak R candidate opposing. I recommend central casting scope out a white farm kid former soldier in her mid 30s to late 40s who’s pissed off about how republicans treat schools, health insurance and opiates and that republicans pollute her fishing streams. 

Coupled with a strong national environment for dems, resource investment in the state for last cycle and the next cycle, that it’s an open seat and that TN is trending more dem. It’s totally plausible. It’s a reach seat, but in 2006, 2008 and 2012 democrats won lots of senate seats like this one. 

Basically we should absolutely gun hard for the seat and all the ones like it, because we win those sometimes. Given the insane levels at which republicans turned out in 2018 democrats only won 68% of all the senate seats but we were competitive in 90% of them including TN. Even a slight reduction in republican turnout or a slight increase in democrat turnout would put TN in the D column. 

Edited by lokisnow

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2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

 

 

Yep, and if the economy crashes, and the public blames Republicans, Democrats can win in most places, such as Tennessee. 

And if the moon is made of cheese then a supermajority is in the cards!!!

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2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

We'll be lucky to stay there given the current trend. Google the dow and look at the 1 and 6 month trend. Not inspiring. Looks like FB gets to claim a W there. 

‘Sighs’.

Not a great win...

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47 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

‘Sighs’.

Not a great win...

A recession would be a great win for liberals!  Finally the war on Christmas will be complete.

Fear will keep the local interest rates in line. Fear of this prognostication.

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1 hour ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

And if the moon is made of cheese then a supermajority is in the cards!!!

How'd the moon get there?  Why does the cow jump over it?

 

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Considering democrats lost Tennessee by a wide margin in 2018 election I doubt they have a chance unless the candidate is so tied to Trump and there are too much proof for Trump to dismiss the charges against himself

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Is it possible for the Dems to pick up Alexander's seat?  Sure.  Will it require very favorable conditions?  Yup.  I feel like going back to Bredesen is very uninspired.  Find someone else.

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