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lokisnow

U.S. Politics: It’s beginning to look a lot like Rescission

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9 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I am astonished that none of you are celebrating Victory over ISIS!

 

I'll do so only when Trump officially announces our victory from the deck of a aircraft carrier while wearing a flight suit. Because, as we all know, once that happens then it's true.

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22 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I am astonished that none of you are celebrating Victory over ISIS!

 

Careful Birdie. Once we recover from our celebratory hangover, Canada is next!!!

We’ll get you my pretty, and your little Pokémon too!!!!!

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It's a little confusing. Apparently ISIS are defeated, but also the Russians and Syrians are still fighting them, which is why the Russians are so sad to see US troops leave, which is why Putin welcomed the decision? 

Trump's Twitter timeline is even more of a rollercoaster than normal, is what I'm saying. 

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7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Careful Birdie. Once we recover from our celebratory hangover, Canada is next!!!

War Plan Crimson! War Plan Crimson! :commie:

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28 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

War Plan Crimson! War Plan Crimson! :commie:

Their pleasant spirits will be broken, their hockey sticks burned and their rivers will run amber with maple syrup!!!!  

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Also, the dow is -400 and we’re under 23,000. So don’t order those hats, Maith.   

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2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

FiveThirtyEight has an article called "Why Latinos Haven't Completely Abandoned the GOP".

The article goes on to outline four reasons why Latino voters have stuck with the GOP:

1.  Partisanship.  Most voters have not changed allegiance in the Trump era, and Latino voters are no exception.  Presumably their reasons for supporting the GOP, be it abortion or tax cuts or whatever, are sufficient to keep them onboard.  This goes double for the growing number of evangelical Latinos.

2.  Immigration isn't that important to some Latino voters.  Particularly those who have been in the country a long time and don't worry as much about family members being deports.

3.  Some (not Trump) Republicans are still doing a lot to appeal to Latino voters.  Texas Gov Abbot and Florida Gov Rick Scott both did substantial outreach to Latino voters, and that outreach paid off. 

4.  Maybe polling is missing a shift in Latino voters after all?  This is possible, and different polling firms have different opinions on whether Trump is hurting the GOP brand or not.

 

I think that all of those seem reasonable, but I think that #1 is the biggest factor.  People don't switch political parties readily, and I think that a lot of GOP Latino voters are just sticking it out, not enthusiastic about everything Trump is doing, but nonetheless willing to support him because they see Democrats as being worse.

In addition, I would add a caveat to #4, which is that I think that among young voters and recently naturalized immigrants who can now vote, I am confident that Trump is hurting the Republican brand.  However, those are long term trends, not something that will show up in a single four year span.  I expect that Trump's support from Latino voters in 2020 will probably be down ~2 points from what he got in 2016, and that most of this is from changing voters, not from people changing their minds.  A 2 point shift in Latino voters isn't enough to cost him the election, but it won't help matters either, as Latino voters make up a larger portion of the electorate every cycle. 

I would add that both education and income are important here as well. The most educated are the most likely to vote and the most wealthy are the most likely to vote and both of these things track to being more likely to vote republican, as well as most likely to be more partisan. Since democrats have failed for half a century to actively build a Latino voter base, the wealthiest and best educated and therefore most republican are going to be a disproportionate share of the Latino electorate and they are just as unlikely to abandon trump and their party as any other republican.

If democrats registered say 5 million Latinos nationally before 2020, I think you would see a fairly massive swing in the overall partisanship of the Latino electorate, because those people available to be registered are likely to be younger, less educated and poorer and therefore much more democrat leaning.

 But that would require strategic investment and hard work and democrats don’t like doing either.

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The guardian has an extensive article detailing all the shocking ways Beto betrayed democrats in the Obama and trump administrations, including voting with Trump a horrid 30% of the time and voting with republican schemes to undermine the affordable care act.

since his district is an extremely safe democrat district, that’s is a baaad look going into the democrat primary (tune into debates starting in June)

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/dec/20/beto-orourke-congressional-votes-analysis-capital-and-main

 

 

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58 minutes ago, mormont said:

It's a little confusing. Apparently ISIS are defeated, but also the Russians and Syrians are still fighting them, which is why the Russians are so sad to see US troops leave, which is why Putin welcomed the decision? 

Trump's Twitter timeline is even more of a rollercoaster than normal, is what I'm saying. 

You left out that if the not defeated defeated  ISIS attacks us, they’re doomed!!!

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58 minutes ago, lokisnow said:

The guardian has an extensive article detailing all the shocking ways Beto betrayed democrats in the Obama and trump administrations, including voting with Trump a horrid 30% of the time and voting with republican schemes to undermine the affordable care act.

since his district is an extremely safe democrat district, that’s is a baaad look going into the democrat primary (tune into debates starting in June)

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/dec/20/beto-orourke-congressional-votes-analysis-capital-and-main

 

 

Yeah, that's a pretty bad look. He's probably more appealing to the progressives as a candidate, but with that record he's going to have a hard time getting that support - and he's not going to be particularly centrist-friendly either compared to, say, Biden.

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18 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Another stellar day for the market so far.

Not a surprise. A end-of-year government shutdown on the whims of Fox News is going to spook investors looking for stability and security. 

I believe that at this point the Dow is getting closer to the end of Obama's term than it was the high of Trump's. 

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14 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Not a surprise. A end-of-year government shutdown on the whims of Fox News is going to spook investors looking for stability and security. 

I believe that at this point the Dow is getting closer to the end of Obama's term than it was the high of Trump's. 

Yeah, and then Donnie Dipshit will cave and sign an emergency funding Bill, the market will stage a temporary recovery, and he'll claim credit for it.

Iirc, the market yesterday was at a 14 month low, and all 3 major indexes are down over 2% today. So yeah, it's getting close to Obama 2016 territory.

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2 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Yeah, and then Donnie Dipshit will cave and sign an emergency funding Bill, the market will stage a temporary recovery, and he'll claim credit for it.

Iirc, the market yesterday was at a 14 month low, and all 3 major indexes are down over 2% today. So yeah, it's getting close to Obama 2016 territory.

The S&P 500 was 2,270 on Jan 20 2017.  It peaked above 2,930 at the end of summer and now we're at 2,445.  So we've lost ~2/3rds of the stock gains we saw since Trump was inaugurated.  Whether that is "close" to losing all of the gains since Trump's inauguration is a matter of perspective.  But it's pretty definitive that the tax cut has not been the boom to the markets and the economy that Republicans were hoping.  Perhaps those independent economists who hated it knew what they were talking about? 

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3 hours ago, Durckad said:

I'll do so only when Trump officially announces our victory from the deck of a aircraft carrier while wearing a flight suit. Because, as we all know, once that happens then it's true. 

Careful what you wish for. Afterall, those images will haunt you for a very long time.

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16 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The S&P 500 was 2,270 on Jan 20 2017.  It peaked above 2,930 at the end of summer and now we're at 2,445.  So we've lost ~2/3rds of the stock gains we saw since Trump was inaugurated.  Whether that is "close" to losing all of the gains since Trump's inauguration is a matter of perspective.  But it's pretty definitive that the tax cut has not been the boom to the markets and the economy that Republicans were hoping.  Perhaps those independent economists who hated it knew what they were talking about? 

I think there was also a long-running expectation that some sort of tax cut would eventually pass that would be a giveaway to corporations. So any stock market benefit to the cut was already baked in.

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I assume that Trump is pissy about the negative press he's getting from Republicans on giving up on the Wall and on pulling out of Syria against the wishes of all his military advisors.  But this is particularly frustrating because we all know how this is going to go.  Either Trump caves today or he caves tomorrow or he caves next week, whatever. 

Democrats know that Republicans don't have the votes for the Wall even now, and they'll be even further from having the votes when the next congress takes over January 1.  And they also know that Trump will get blamed for the shutdown, since he proudly said that he'd accept blame for the shutdown last week.  So they have no incentive whatsoever to make a deal.

So we all just have to play out this farce that Trump is "being tough" when we all know he's not going to get what he wants, the only question is how much bitching and moaning we have to put up* with before he gives up and declares victory, like he always does.

* of course, actual federal employees will get screwed, but nobody cares about them.  It's just people not getting their paychecks right before Christmas, no big deal. 

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52 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Not a surprise. A end-of-year government shutdown on the whims of Fox News is going to spook investors looking for stability and security. 

I believe that at this point the Dow is getting closer to the end of Obama's term than it was the high of Trump's. 

Trump did a big brag in January of this year, a few weeks before the heart-thumping crash in February. He used the time period of Nov. 9, 2016, to Jan. 5, 2018, when the Dow went up from 18,589 to 25,075, an increase of 35%. During the equivalent time after Obama’s election, the Dow went up 15.7%, so Trump had a point.

However, if you look at Inauguration Day to Jan. 5, 2018, his first year in office, the market went up 26%, whereas in the first year of Obama’s administration the market went up 33%.

It’s all how you play with the numbers. It may be reasonable to look at the period from November, though, because the Dow moved so much in anticipation of tax and regulation cuts. And Trump supporters say the market was so down when Obama took office it had no where to go but up, and the Dow’s strong increase was on top of what was already a strong market.

But fair is fair. Look at the Nasdaq in the same period as well. Under Obama, the Nasdaq went up a whopping 60% in that time period. If you follow the logic Trump and his supporters used with the Dow, tha Nasdaq should have been up more than 140% under Trump, but it wasn’t. It went up only 42%. What, lower taxes and fewer regulations don’t help tech companies?

And the 3rd market, the S&P 500, was up 28% under Obama and 27% under Trump in the same period.

The fact is, presidents don’t usually have a direct impact on the market and therefore never make claims about moving it. Trump has, and needs to wear the changes down as well.

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Oh, and I would point out that market watchers have grown fond of predicting what will happen during the year depending on which conference wins the Super Bowl, ffs!

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