Heresy 215 - Hammering Out the Timeline

[Melifeather]

Black Crow is on vacation until Christmas, so I will play guest-host until his return.  

The discussion at the end of Heresy 214 was about the timeline of events from the attack on Elia, the tourney at Harrenhal, Robert's Rebellion, and the Assault on Dragonstone. I will copy a few of the posts from the last thread to build off of. AND...I would be remiss if I didn't copy BC's standard introduction:

Welcome to Heresy 215, the latest version of the long-running and sometimes rather quirky thread where we take an in-depth look at the story and in particular what GRRM has referred to as the real conflict, not the Game of Thrones, but the Song of Ice and Fire and the true nature of apparent threat which lies in the North, hidden in the Haunted Forest and those magical Otherlands which lie beyond the Wall. 

The thread is called Heresy because with The Wall, the Watch and a Heresy, back in 2011, we miserable heretics were the first to challenge the orthodoxy that the Wall is the last best hope of mankind; to question whether the three-fingered tree-huggers really are the kindly elves Bran once thought them to be and above all question also the popular assumption that Jon Snow is some bloke prophesied way out east and known there as Azor Ahai, who is going to ride out of the sunrise on a dragon, save the world by immolating the Icy lot and then ascend the Iron Throne to reign over dust and ashes. Instead we’re increasingly wondering whether the Starks themselves might have a rather dark [but forgotten] secret in their past, which some of us are beginning to suspect may be tall and gaunt, with characteristic long Stark faces and are very very cold. Winter after all is coming and it aint going to be pretty when it does. 

 We don’t all of us agree on this, or anything else for that matter, but as a free-ranging discussion group within Westeros we can safely claim to have been around for a while now and discussed an awful lot of stuff over the years since the thread cycle started in late 2011. Some of the ideas have been overtaken by events and some seemingly confirmed by GRRM’s increasingly sparse SSMs and by the earlier stages of the mummers’ version before it firmly moved into weird fan-fiction. 

However GRRM has also told us that when it comes to writing he is very much a gardener and this thread cycle follows that style, preferring the discussion to be free-ranging and organic in nature rather than fixed in tram lines.

So dig in, enjoy yourself and if it comes to a fight just remember the local house rules; stick to the written text, have respect for the ideas of others and above all conduct the debate with great good humour.

[Melifeather]

I had suggested the following timeline. Full disclosure, it's based on some personal theories, so feel free to dig in and tear it apart. 

Edited to add: My intention was to list the order events occurred, but not necessarily one per month during the month something is listed. For example, Jon Arryn's refusal to turn over Ned and Robert could have had Ned leaving for Winterfell that same month. But, his route to The Fingers, to the Sisters, to White Harbor, and then Winterfell would have taken some time.

Oct 281 - Attack on Elia, sometime after her return from Dragonstone after the birth of Aegon

Nov 281 - Tourney at Harrenhal

Dec 281 - Rhaegar leaves for Dorne with baby Aegon, (Pisswater baby swap)

Year 282

Jan 282 - Lyanna abducted

Feb 282 - Brandon goes to Kings Landing

Mar 282 - Brandon and Rickard executed, Ashara slips away by ship

Apr 282 - Jon Arryn refuses Aerys

May 282 - Arryn and Baratheon banners called, Ned leaves for home

Jun 282 - Taking of Gulltown, Robert leaves for Storm's End

July 282 - Ned meets Ashara in The Fingers - "Fisherman’s Daughter"

Aug 282 - Ned arrives to White Harbor, Ashara gives birth to Jon (9 mos. after tourney), Ned convinces Ashara to leave Jon with him and he buys her passage to Braavos.

Sep 282 - Ned brings Wylla and Jon to Winterfell and calls banners

Oct 282 - Battles at Summerhal (Robert)

Nov 282 - Battle of Ashford, Ned’s first battle  joint forces: Baratheon, Arryn, and Stark, Robert defeated, yet escapes capture and flees for Stoney Sept. Jon Connington in hot pursuit.

Dec 282 - Ned & Catelyn and Jon & Lyssa marry, Hoster Tully joins alliance

Year 283

Jan 283 - Battle of the Bells - added: Ned's first battle, Joint forces: Baratheon, Stark, Arryn, and Tully. Jon Con defeated, goes into exile.

Feb 283 - Rhaegar returns, Tywin ignores Aerys, wildfyre planted

Mar 283 - Battle of the Trident, then Battle at the Mander

Apr 283 - Sack of Kings Landing, Ned fights 3 Kingsguard at Maegor’s Holdfast, finds Lyanna in black cells, Rhaella crowns Viserys on Dragonstone

May 283 - birth of Daenerys on Dragonstone (9 mos. after Jon Snow was born) Rhaella dies.

Jun 283 - Siege of Storms End lifted, Stannis rebuilds Robert's fleet

July 283 - Ned returns Dawn to Starfall

Sep 283 - birth of Robb Stark at Riverrun (9 mos. after Catelyn and Ned marry)

Oct 283 - Catelyn brings Robb to Winterfell

Nov 283 - Ned returns to Winterfell

Dec 283 - Willem Darry leaves Dragonstone with Dany and Viserys

Year 284

Jan 284 - Assault on Dragonstone

[Melifeather]

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Rhaenys was born in 280, while the attack on Elia by the Kingswood Brotherhood was closer to the tourney at Harrenhal. We know the attack was shortly before the tourney, because Jaime Lannister was first knighted on the field by Ser Arthur Dayne, and then invested into the Kingsguard at the tourney as a reward for his help in disbanding the Kingswood Brotherhood.

You know what I find amusing is how the wiki pushes Aegon's birth to 282, which is impossible, because 1) Rhaegar was present at his birth on Dragonstone, and 2) King Aerys took Elia hostage in 282.

 

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I am not even going to attempt to hash out months, but a couple of things stand out to me. I don't see any reason to think that Ned's forces joined Robert before the Battle of the Bells. If they had joined after Robert's defeat at Ashford, why were they separated later, which left Robert vulnerable at Stoney Sept? Hard for me to imagine that Ned would have marched his army even close to Ashford, then marched them north again. All the way to Riverrun? It seems counter productive.

Considering my own arguments about going the wrong direction, it does make sense that Ned and Cat married before the Battle of the Bells, even though at this point, there was no reason for Jon Arryn to marry Lysa, since he still had an heir alive. Perhaps Jon married Lysa  not to get an heir, but to help Hoster get her off his hands. Catelyn doesn't seem to think that this is why, but she is becoming very untrustworthy in my mind as far as being a viable source of information.

I would think Battle of Ashford, Robert's retreat to the north, Siege of Storm's End begins (we are told it was nearly a year), Ned marching to Riverrun, getting married, and then marching toward Robert's army, Stoney Sept would be when Robert, Ned, Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully's forces joined.

I have always found it odd that the rebel forces scattered the loyalists at Stoney Sept and then seemed to go back north at this point. They had to have gone north and east to battle at the Trident. Why did they just not continue on to KL and meet what ever rebel forces were on the way. It doesn't really make sense that they marched back north around the God's Eye, unless something more happened at Harrenhal that we have not been told.

Personally, I think it's possible that Lyanna was already dead by the time the Battle of the Trident happened, although I know it doesn't fit your theory of the toj being Maegor's Holdfast. I think that could still work, but with Lyanna being dead before this confrontation.

Also, how can Dany's birth happen before the siege of Storm's End was lifted, after all we are told that Stannis just missed getting to Dragonstone and capturing she and Viserys. I guess it could be argued that she was born previously, but how much? A great storm is said to have occurred at her birth and smashed the Targaryen fleet.

Also, I was under the impression that Ned escorted Catelyn and Robb to Winterfell, but perhaps that is not correct.

For the most part, I could see your timeline working,  but it works around certain theories to make the theories work, and it all will shift if those theories are not correct. That is why this timeline mess is so tangled up! I find it endlessly frustrating. Two days ago I was pretty sure that Ned and Cat got married after the Battle of the Bells, but now I am not sure! 

 

   1 hour ago,  St Daga said: 

Considering my own arguments about going the wrong direction, it does make sense that Ned and Cat married before the Battle of the Bells, even though at this point, there was no reason for Jon Arryn to marry Lysa, since he still had an heir alive. Perhaps Jon married Lysa  not to get an heir, but to help Hoster get her off his hands. Catelyn doesn't seem to think that this is why, but she is becoming very untrustworthy in my mind as far as being a viable source of information.

Perhaps Hoster Tully felt the alliance would be stronger to tie all of the Houses together and not just to Stark? The part about his heir dying is circumstantial evidence - or rather just a coincidence. Jon Arryn would have wanted his own son as an heir, and Lyssa was proven to be fertile - if Hoster had been forthright with him about her previous pregnancy.

   1 hour ago,  St Daga said: 

Also, how can Dany's birth happen before the siege of Storm's End was lifted, after all we are told that Stannis just missed getting to Dragonstone and capturing she and Viserys. I guess it could be argued that she was born previously, but how much? A great storm is said to have occurred at her birth and smashed the Targaryen fleet.

I initially thought Dany's birth was earlier too, because of the Assault, but Robert's fleet had been wiped out. Stannis had to rebuild a fleet before he could assault Dragonstone. Actually the news that Stannis was rebuilding is probably the news that prompted Willem Darry into action.

   1 hour ago,  St Daga said: 

Also, I was under the impression that Ned escorted Catelyn and Robb to Winterfell, but perhaps that is not correct.

Maester Luwin escorted Catelyn and Robb.

   1 hour ago,  Brad Stark said: 

Robert fought at Gulltown and didn't call his banners until after.  Ned took a fairly round about way to Winterfell. 

Yes, you are correct about this. So it would appear that Gulltown broke out when Jon Arryn called his banners, splitting loyalist Houses from rebel Houses. Ned leaves just as fighting breaks out, while Robert waits until afterward to leave for Storm's End.

 

   5 hours ago,  Frey family reunion said: 

And since the Sack happened approximately two weeks after the Trident, if the Worldbook is indeed correct, than the Sack happens about a year (at most) after Harrenhal.

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The World book says that after Aegon was born, as winter returned with a vengeance, Rhaegar went on a long road trip in which he "ultimately" -- meaning eventually, at the end of it -- fell on Lyanna near Harrenhal.   

How much time passed in this road trip, it doesn't say.

(I think we should also look rather skeptically at the idea Rhaegar decided to go on a long road trip in the middle of a horrible winter.  I mean, really now.  Would any of us?  Why?)

Now, as to the idea the Sack happened "a year at most after Harrenhal," I think that's questionable based on the canon.  

The war itself lasted about a year.

And we know Harrenhal did not lead straight to the war, because Jaime was 15 at Harrenhal and 17 when he killed Aerys in the Sack.  There was a substantial interval of time between Harrenhal and the beginning of the War, in which (according to the World book) Rhaegar's road trip happened, and eventually Lyanna vanished, and then when Brandon found out, he rode to the Red Keep, and Aerys summoned Rickard, blah blah blah.  Weeks of that.  Finally Jon Arryn called his banners and that was the beginning of the war, which lasted about a year.

 

 

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Every Lord has an heir whether they name one or not. The heir is whomever is the next closest relative. Denys was a distant cousin who married Jon Arryn's niece. Before Denys, Elbert was Jon's heir. And before Elbert was Elbert's father, Ronnel who was also Jon Arryn's younger brother. Denys did manage to father a son before he was killed, so technically Jon Arryn had an heir. To say that Jon had to marry Lyssa in order to produce an heir wouldn't be necessary since he had Denys's son. Throughout the whole line of the Arryn inheritance, Jon never had his own heir, because even though Lyssa was his third wife, he himself was childless.

 

   1 hour ago,  Feather Crystal said: 

You know what I find amusing is how the wiki pushes Aegon's birth to 282, which is impossible, because 1) Rhaegar was present at his birth on Dragonstone, and 2) King Aerys took Elia hostage in 282.

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1) well, it is possible that Rhaegar stumbled upon Lyanna on his way to Dragonstone. It would fit into this stupid timeframe that the Stark brothers rode ahead to the wedding and were later to meet Rickard for the wedding in Riverrun. So it must have happened when Lyanna was also on her way to the wedding in Riverrun. This actually brings up the question where Howard was and whom he was travelling with.

It is possible that Rhaegar took Lyanna with him, because the Harrenhal memories were fresh and he wanted to discuss the situation with Aerys after Aegon was born. It is actually possible that Aegon was born while Rickard was burning.

2) We only know she was a hostage during the battle of the Trident. The real contradicting information is about her state. Is is implied that she couldn't leave her bed for half a year after Rhaenys was born and that Aegon's birth almost killed her. How was she able to travel from Dragonstone to KL then ? And it can well be possible that she couldn't flee, because she was actually unable to move. And Aerys denial was just the cover up story. 

I don't know what is going on. Something tells me, Rhaegar went to Dorne because of his wife. 

 

 

 

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

Jan 282 - Lyanna abducted

Feb 282 - Brandon goes to Kings Landing

While it’s only my feeling, I think Brandon’s trip to King’s Landing may have been within one or two weeks after Lyanna’s abduction as opposed to a full month.  I’d have to go hunt the quote down from Cat, but it appears that Brandon was traveling to Riverrun for their wedding when Lyanna disappeared.  Brandon and his friends then immediately head off to King’s Landing to call out Rhaegar.

My guess is Brandon was probably traveling from the Vale to Riverrun with his “groomsmen” when Lyanna disappeared (which would explain the number of Valemen with him when he went to King’s Landing).  Not sure if Lyanna is with them or not.

2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Mar 282 - Brandon and Rickard executed

 Apr 282 - Jon Arryn refuses Aerys

 May 282 - Arryn and Baratheon banners called

I also think that all three of these things happened within the same month.  The biggest span of time between these first five events is probably the time it took Rickard and the other fathers to travel to King’s Landing to try and have their sons freed.

[corbon]

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

Aug 282 - Ned arrives to White Harbor, Ashara gives birth to Jon

Sep 283 - birth of Robb Stark at Riverrun

Ned claims Jon as his son, yet says he dishonoured Catelyn and himself in the sight of both Gods and men when he fathered Jon.

Quote

"Wylla. Yes." The king grinned. "She must have been a rare wench if she could make Lord Eddard Stark forget his honor, even for an hour. You never told me what she looked like …"

Ned's mouth tightened in anger. "Nor will I. Leave it be, Robert, for the love you say you bear me. I dishonored myself and I dishonored Catelyn, in the sight of gods and men."

Therefore he must be passing off Jon as being conceived after his marriage to Catelyn. Its no dishonour to her for him to have fathered a bastard before he was betrothed to her.

While its possible that Jon was conceived before Ned married Catelyn, it can't be that much. The world believes (Catelyn believes!) Robb is older than Jon, and Jon was already at Winterfell when Catelyn arrived with Robb a year (lets call it a little more for your benefit, give some casual language stretch, say 15 months) after Robb was conceived.
There is no way anyone in the world is accepting that a 16-18 month old baby is younger than a 6 month old baby. No one who has had children could possibly assume this.
If you take Catelyn's 'a year apart' as 12 months its a 3 month old vs over a year old.

Jon's birth and Robb's birth can be no more than 2-3 months apart at absolute most, probably within a month or less.

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

Nov 282 - Battle of Ashford, Ned’s first battle, joined forces of Baratheon, Arryn, and Stark

Dec 282 - Ned & Catelyn, Jon & Lyssa marry, Hoster Tully joins alliance

Year 283

Jan 283 - Battle of the Bells

What evidence puts Ned at Ashford?

Multiple evidence puts Battle of the Bells before the double marriages.
Its easy enough for an agreement to be made between Hoster and Ned for Ned to take Brandon's place and marry Catelyn before the Battle of the Bells, and the wedding hastily made into a double wedding after the battle of the Bells

Some of the personal theories could be less explicitly referenced - or rather, use terms that make sense to people. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Melifeather]

I was just looking at a map of Westeros to trace Robert's route from the Eyrie to Gulltown, down to Storm's End then west to Summerhal, then even further west to Ashford, and then north to the Stoney Sept. He made a wide C around Kings Landing in order to move north to join forces with Ned Stark, Jon Arryn, and Hoster Tully. 

Ashford would have been the place that Robert was the most vulnerable, because he had Dorne to the south and the Reach to the southwest, west, and northwest. Randall Tarly's forces defeated Robert's van at Ashford, even though Mace Tyrell took the credit for the win. Mace Tyrell ended up continuing eastwards towards Storm's End to keep Stannis contained. while Randall Tarly must have continued to pursue Robert. Meanwhile Jon Connington headed west out of Kings Landing. Robert should have been intercepted, but he managed to slip by. Jon Connington continued the chase, but Robert makes it to Stoney Sept.

Meanwhile, Jon Arryn's path took him down to Gulltown and then where? West I suppose, but where did he connect with Ned Stark? The next we hear about him he's making a deal with Hoster Tully at Riverrun, which isn't that far from Stoney Sept. I can't see him going north out of his way, so he must have waited for Ned somewhere around either the Inn at the Crossroads or near Lord Harroway's Town so that they could use the ferry to get across the Trident. There seems to be a significant lull with regards to what Jon Arryn was doing after Gulltown before he joins Ned and his northmen. There really was no reason for Hoster Tully to get involved since his alliance with Rickard and Brandon had dissolved. Ned and Jon Arryn needed him to join their forces, because the royalist forces are building and Robert was cornered.

Either Jon Arryn had some men down with Robert in Ashford, or Arryn and Stark didn't join Baratheon forces until the Battle of the Bells. The latter now seems the most likely.

[Frey family reunion]

19 minutes ago, corbon said:

Therefore he must be passing off Jon as being conceived after his marriage to Catelyn. Its no dishonour to her for him to have fathered a bastard before he was betrothed to her.

This has set off an interesting debate in another thread.  It all depends on how truthful Ned is being when he says that he dishonored Cat (who was carrying his child) and himself.

Now assuming that Ned is lying about Jon being his child, and assuming that Ned is lying about Wylla being Jon’s mother, he already has to lie to Robert when Robert brings up the subject of Jon’s mother.  My guess is that Eddard really hates to lie, probably isn’t very good at it, and when he does, he tries to shut down the topic of conversation pretty quickly:

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You know the one I mean, your bastard’s mother?”

“Her name was Wylla,” Ned replied with cool courtesy, “and I would sooner not speak of her.”

But of course Robert doesn’t let the conversation, go and Eddard momentarily loses his temper with Robert.  I wonder, if in Eddard’s moment of anger he may have let a nugget of truth out:

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“Wylla. Yes.” The king grinned. “She must have been a rare wench if she could make Lord Eddard Stark forget his honor, even for an hour. You never told me what she looked like …”

Ned’s mouth tightened in anger. “Nor will I. Leave it be, Robert, for the love you say you bear me. I dishonored myself and I dishonored Catelyn, in the sight of gods and men.” 

“Gods have mercy, you scarcely knew Catelyn.” 

“I had taken her to wife. She was carrying my child.”

Now if we take Eddard’s “dishonor” here as him conceiving Jon after he was married to Cat, then we probably all can agree that this is a lie.  Eddard didn’t really dishonor himself or Cat.

But what if Eddard, in his anger, reveals something he did do (while Cat was carrying his child) that he does feel dishonor for both for himself and Cat.  In this case, the actual dishonor isn’t the conception of Jon, but the false acknowledgment of Jon (in the sight of gods and men, as most oaths are given) which brings dishonor on himself, for the lie, and dishonor on Cat through creating the false public perception that he had an affair after their marriage.

If that’s what he is secretly referring to, then that does suggest that Jon was born before Robb.

[Melifeather]

24 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

While it’s only my feeling, I think Brandon’s trip to King’s Landing may have been within one or two weeks after Lyanna’s abduction as opposed to a full month.  I’d have to go hunt the quote down from Cat, but it appears that Brandon was traveling to Riverrun for their wedding when Lyanna disappeared.  Brandon and his friends then immediately head off to King’s Landing to call out Rhaegar.

My guess is Brandon was probably traveling from the Vale to Riverrun with his “groomsmen” when Lyanna disappeared (which would explain the number of Valemen with him when he went to King’s Landing).  Not sure if Lyanna is with them or not.

I also think that all three of these things happened within the same month.  The biggest span of time between these first five events is probably the time it took Rickard and the other fathers to travel to King’s Landing to try and have their sons freed.

I had explained when I had posted the timeline that I didn't intend for each event to be a month apart. I only meant to show the order of the events. It's certainly possible that multiple events occurred during the same month.

22 minutes ago, corbon said:

Ned claims Jon as his son, yet says he dishonoured Catelyn and himself in the sight of both Gods and men when he fathered Jon.

Therefore he must be passing off Jon as being conceived after his marriage to Catelyn. Its no dishonour to her for him to have fathered a bastard before he was betrothed to her.

While its possible that Jon was conceived before Ned married Catelyn, it can't be that much. The world believes (Catelyn believes!) Robb is older than Jon, and Jon was already at Winterfell when Catelyn arrived with Robb a year (lets call it a little more for your benefit, give some casual language stretch, say 15 months) after Robb was conceived.
There is no way anyone in the world is accepting that a 16-18 month old baby is younger than a 6 month old baby. No one who has had children could possibly assume this.
If you take Catelyn's 'a year apart' as 12 months its a 3 month old vs over a year old.

Jon's birth and Robb's birth can be no more than 2-3 months apart at absolute most, probably within a month or less.

What evidence puts Ned at Ashford?

Multiple evidence puts Battle of the Bells before the double marriages.
Its easy enough for an agreement to be made between Hoster and Ned for Ned to take Brandon's place and marry Catelyn before the Battle of the Bells, and the wedding hastily made into a double wedding after the battle of the Bells

Some of the personal theories could be less explicitly referenced - or rather, use terms that make sense to people. 

 

 

 

 

 

My timeline makes Jon 13 months older than Robb, not 16-18 months. Catelyn thought Ashara was Jon's mother, possibly because she was familiar with the events at the tourney or because she heard Winterfell maids gossiping. Catelyn was very threatened by Jon's presence, because she suspected Jon was older than Robb, and if legitimized would have claim over Winterfell before Robb. If he was younger than Robb, she'd have less to worry about. Jon is described as slender and graceful while Robb is described as sturdy and strong. Jon was probably a small baby while Robb was likely a large baby. It's not unthinkable that a large four month old baby could weigh 20 lbs, while a small 17 month old baby could also weigh 20 lbs.

After looking closely at the map and the order of the battles, I've changed my position regarding Stark/Arryn forces being at Ashford, and I posted my thoughts up thread.

[Frey family reunion]

2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

July 282 - Ned travels home - Fisherman’s Daughter

 Aug 282 - Ned arrives to White Harbor, Ashara gives birth to Jon

My take on this, from Borrell’s tale, is that the Fisherman’s daughter must have conceived her child around the time that Ned traveled from the Vale to White Harbor.  If so, we’d be looking at around March of 283 as the date of Jon’s birth, pursuant to your timeline.

I personally would move Ned’s trip to White Harbor up by several months to coincide with the taking of Gulltown, since Ned took no part in that battle.

[Melifeather]

26 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

My take on this, from Borrell’s tale, is that the Fisherman’s daughter must have conceived her child around the time that Ned traveled from the Vale to White Harbor.  If so, we’d be looking at around March of 283 as the date of Jon’s birth, pursuant to your timeline.

Quite possible. Again, don't take the months as being the actual months when I believe the events occurred. I just wanted to demonstrate the order of events. A lot of these things happened simultaneously. I imagine Ned left the Vale during the events at Gulltown. That is why he took the route he did - to avoid fighting. His route must have took some time, and yet he somehow encountered Ashara along the way. My personal feelings on when they met was that she travelled to the Vale before the fighting in Gulltown got underway. The time it took Ned and Ashara to reach the Sisters would have been long enough for Lord Borrell to notice Ashara was pregnant, otherwise how would he know she was pregnant?

[Frey family reunion]

While I hate relying on SSMs, if we take seriously the SSM where GRRM puts Dany’s Birth 8 to 9 months after Jon’s birth, then we’re probably looking at Jon’s birth as sometime between the Battle of Bells and the Battle at the Trident.  Probably close to the time of the Trident.

And while not a popular opinion, I also think that Robert and Ned both knew about Lyanna’s whereabouts and “condition” prior to the Battl of the Trident.  Which explains why there is no talk about finding and rescuing Lyanna at the time of the Trident, but plenty of talk about seeking vengeance from Rhaegar for what he did to Lyanna.

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“And Rhaegar ... how many times do you think he raped your sister?  How many hundreds of times?”

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“The Others take your honor!” Robert swore.

What did any Targaryen ever know of honor?  Go down into your crypt and ask Lyanna about the dragon’s honor!”

”You avenged Lyanna at the Trident,” Ned said, halting beside the king.  Promise me, Ned, she had whispered.

”That did not bring her back.”  Robert looked away, off into the grey distance.  “the gods be damned.  It was a hollow victory they gave me.  A crown ... it was the girl I prayed them for.  Your sister, safe ... and mine again, as she was meant to be.”

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“She should be on a hill somewhere, under a fruit tree, with the sun and clouds above her and the rain to wash her clean.”

 

[Melifeather]

I'm guessing Ashara slipped out of Kings Landing during Brandon and Rickard's executions. There'd be enough of a distraction that she'd go unnoticed. I don't know how long it would take her to get to the Vale, but since Sansa took Littlefinger's ship out of Kings Landing, then it only makes sense to me that Ashara also took a ship. If the Gulltown events were starting to play out, her ship may have skipped Gulltown and docked at The Fingers just as Littlefinger's ship did, and that could have been the location where she connected with Ned.

[Tucu]

6 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

While I hate relying on SSMs, if we take seriously the SSM where GRRM puts Dany’s Birth 8 to 9 months after Jon’s birth, then we’re probably looking at Jon’s birth as sometime between the Battle of Bells and the Battle at the Trident.  Probably close to the time of the Trident.

And while not a popular opinion, I also think that Robert and Ned both knew about Lyanna’s whereabouts and “condition” prior to the Battl of the Trident.  Which explains why there is no talk about finding and rescuing Lyanna at the time of the Trident, but plenty of talk about seeking vengeance from Rhaegar for what he did to Lyanna.

 

It doesn't look like Robert knew she was dead. This is from the sack of KL:

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Ned did not feign surprise; Robert's hatred of the Targaryens was a madness in him. He remembered the angry words they had exchanged when Tywin Lannister had presented Robert with the corpses of Rhaegar's wife and children as a token of fealty. Ned had named that murder; Robert called it war. When he had protested that the young prince and princess were no more than babes, his new-made king had replied, "I see no babes. Only dragonspawn." Not even Jon Arryn had been able to calm that storm. Eddard Stark had ridden out that very day in a cold rage, to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south. It had taken another death to reconcile them; Lyanna's death, and the grief they had shared over her passing.

 

[Frey family reunion]

7 minutes ago, Tucu said:

It doesn't look like Robert knew she was dead:

 

I don’t think she was dead at the time of the Trident.  But for Robert it may have been even worse, she was or had been pregnant, with what Robert believed was Rhaegar’s child.  Lyanna was lost to Robert as soon as she lost her maidenhead.  Robert believes it was to Rhaegar and Robert believes it was a rape.

My guess is the only way that Robert would be this convinced that Lyanna had lost her virginity was that she was or had recently been pregnant.

[Melifeather]

The deaths of Brandon and Rickard would be a logical reason for Ashara to want to flee, especially if it was common knowledge that she was carrying a Stark bastard. She probably felt Aerys would want to kill her and the baby next. 

[Melifeather]

7 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I don’t think she was dead at the time of the Trident.  But for Robert it may have been even worse, she was or had been pregnant, with what Robert believed was Rhaegar’s child.  Lyanna was lost to Robert as soon as she lost her maidenhead.  Robert believes it was Rhaegar and Robert believes it was a rape.

My guess is the only way that Robert would be this convinced that Lyanna had lost her virginity was that she was or had recently been pregnant.

I'm convinced the Targaryens were carrying out some type of child sacrifice in their attempts to hatch dragon eggs, and that those rituals were carried out in the lower levels of Maegor's Holdfast. If Ned found Lyanna down in the black cells after the city was sacked and Maegor's Holdfast "fell", AND both he and Robert still believed Rhaegar had taken her, then her location upon discovery makes it seem like they had taken her with plans to sacrifice any bastards she would bear. If there was no child in evidence, then it would make sense that they thought she had been raped repeatedly trying to make her conceive.

[SirArthur]

32 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

This has set off an interesting debate in another thread.  It all depends on how truthful Ned is being when he says that he dishonored Cat (who was carrying his child) and himself.

I don't think the quote from the books helps very much. Ned has publicly dishonered Cat by accepting Jon as his son. The same way Robert publicly dishonered Cersei when he accepted Edric. The books never speak about this, but Robert did it. Robert can deny Mya Stone, but not Edric Storm. 

And Cat is not wrong when she thinks about the consequences for Robb. Jon is next in line after Rickard (or at least he was before he took the black).

[Frey family reunion]

13 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

I'm convinced the Targaryens were carrying out some type of child sacrifice in their attempts to hatch dragon eggs, and that those rituals were carried out in the lower levels of Maegor's Holdfast. If Ned found Lyanna down in the black cells after the city was sacked and Maegor's Holdfast "fell", AND both he and Robert still believed Rhaegar had taken her, then her location upon discovery makes it seem like they had taken her with plans to sacrifice any bastards she would bear.

I definitely agree with the first part of your quote.  I’m convinced that the method of hatching a dragon’s egg that had turned to stone, involves magic created from human sacrifice or sacrifices.  I also strongly suspect that Rhaegar and Aerys may have intended on doing more than just hatch a dragon, and their plan was also to transfer a human consciousness into the hatched dragon.  My guess is that Rhaegar’s son was the one slated to “pass through fire” and be reborn as a dragon.

I think when Aerys learned of Rhaegar’s death at the Trident he abandoned this plan and went to his backup plan, which was to accomplish the same feat through sacrificing King’s Landing and transferring his consciousness into the dragon.

ETA: as for the Black Cells, I’m not so sure.  I think if Lyanna was in fact abducted, she probably would have been brought to one of the castles closer to Harrenhal.  Probably Lord Mooton's Castle adjacent to Saltpans, considering that Lord Mooton’s son was one of Rhaegar’s squires and close confidants.  This would have also have put Lyanna adjacent to the Quiet Isle, where we learn that women both high born and low born often go to deliver a child.  And conveniently all of the witnesses to this have sworn a vow of silence.

[Melifeather]

I've edited the timeline - tweaked it just a bit.

[corbon]

17 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Meanwhile, Jon Arryn's path took him down to Gulltown and then where? West I suppose, but where did he connect with Ned Stark? The next we hear about him he's making a deal with Hoster Tully at Riverrun, which isn't that far from Stoney Sept. I can't see him going north out of his way, so he must have waited for Ned somewhere around either the Inn at the Crossroads or near Lord Harroway's Town so that they could use the ferry to get across the Trident. There seems to be a significant lull with regards to what Jon Arryn was doing after Gulltown before he joins Ned and his northmen. There really was no reason for Hoster Tully to get involved since his alliance with Rickard and Brandon had dissolved. Ned and Jon Arryn needed him to join their forces, because the royalist forces are building and Robert was cornered.

Gulltown seems to have been a very small affair - basically what Jon/Robert had around them at the time vs the local forces of Marq Grafton. Afterward Jon still needs to consolidate the Vale of Arryn and fully raise his banners.
Gulltown happens early, fast and with minimal forces because its the fastest way for Robert to get back to the Stormlands where he needs to be raising his own forces.

So of course there is a 'lull' before Jon and Ned meet again - both have to get home, consolidate their home areas, raise their forces then meet up again - probably in one of the two locations you suggest.

17 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Either Jon Arryn had some men down with Robert in Ashford, or Arryn and Stark didn't join Baratheon forces until the Battle of the Bells. The latter now seems the most likely.

Stark and Tully forces certainly were separate before Battle of the Bells. Robert (and presumably the remnants of his Stormlands forces) was hiding in Stoney Sept when Connington trapped him there. Ned and Hoster came along with their armies and effectively saved Robert.

Quote

And so he swept down on Stoney Sept, closed off the town, and began a search. His knights went house to house, smashed in every door, peered into every cellar. He had even sent men crawling through the sewers, yet somehow Robert still eluded him. The townsfolk were hiding him. They moved him from one secret bolt-hole to the next, always one step ahead of the king's men. The whole town was a nest of traitors. At the end they had the usurper hidden in a brothel. What sort of king was that, who would hide behind the skirts of women? Yet whilst the search dragged on, Eddard Stark and Hoster Tully came down upon the town with a rebel army. Bells and battle followed, and Robert emerged from his brothel with a blade in hand, and almost slew Jon on the steps of the old sept that gave the town its name.

 

7 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

If that’s what he is secretly referring to, then that does suggest that Jon was born before Robb.

The point is that they must be close enough together in age, whether Jon is older or Robb is older, for Robb to pass as older. Ned claims it, Cat believes it and so does everyone else at Winterfell.

4 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

My timeline makes Jon 13 months older than Robb, not 16-18 months.

Sure, but Robb must be at least 3 months old if not a bit more because Catelyn thought to herself she was apart from Ned for a year.
So 13+3 is 16.

4 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Catelyn thought Ashara was Jon's mother, possibly because she was familiar with the events at the tourney or because she heard Winterfell maids gossiping.

She wasn't at the tourney. She explicitly references the maids gossip (from soldiers gossip) in her thoughts about this.

Quote

That cut deep. Ned would not speak of the mother, not so much as a word, but a castle has no secrets, and Catelyn heard her maids repeating tales they heard from the lips of her husband's soldiers. They whispered of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, deadliest of the seven knights of Aerys's Kingsguard, and of how their young lord had slain him in single combat. And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur's sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea. The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes. It had taken her a fortnight to marshal her courage, but finally, in bed one night, Catelyn had asked her husband the truth of it, asked him to his face.

 

4 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Catelyn was very threatened by Jon's presence, because she suspected Jon was older than Robb, and if legitimize he'd have claim over Winterfell before Robb. If he was younger than Robb, she'd have less to worry about.

Not true. She explicitly states her fears and they have nothing to do with age or Jon vs Robb, they go longer, deeper, generationally.

Quote

Catelyn said nothing. Let Ned work it out in his own mind; her voice would not be welcome now. Yet gladly would she have kissed the maester just then. His was the perfect solution. Benjen Stark was a Sworn Brother. Jon would be a son to him, the child he would never have. And in time the boy would take the oath as well. He would father no sons who might someday contest with Catelyn's own grandchildren for Winterfell.

Jon joining the Nights Watch takes him and his no-longer-any-potential-heirs completely out of the picture, regardless of age, or strength of claim, or infertility or lines lost to illness, accident or other cause. She's worried by the next generation as much or more than the current one, and at that level it matters much less about who is older - Robb may never have kids.

Quote

"Not unless he's legitimized by a royal decree," said Robb. "There is more precedent for that than for releasing a Sworn Brother from his oath."

"Precedent," she said bitterly. "Yes, Aegon the Fourth legitimized all his bastards on his deathbed. And how much pain, grief, war, and murder grew from that? I know you trust Jon. But can you trust his sons? Or their sons? The Blackfyre pretenders troubled the Targaryens for five generations, until Barristan the Bold slew the last of them on the Stepstones. If you make Jon legitimate, there is no way to turn him bastard again. Should he wed and breed, any sons you may have by Jeyne will never be safe."

"Jon would never harm a son of mine."

Generational again. And this is with Robb already declared King. Its not like Jon can take that from him due to being older.

 

4 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Jon is described as slender and graceful while Robb is described as sturdy and strong. Jon was probably a small baby while Robb was likely a large baby. It's not unthinkable that a large four month old baby could weigh 20 lbs, while a small 17 month old baby could also weigh 20 lbs.

The weights, no, but weights are barely relevant. There are many more other factors. 
It is completely unthinkable that any 4 month old could pass as older than a 17 month old consistently over time and to people who are familiar with babies, unless there were severe and permanent developmental defects in the older child.  
To claim otherwise demonstrates utter ignorance of babies.