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Marcelowww

Chapters' predicitions for TWOW

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48 minutes ago, Enuma Elish said:

It's not enough, actually.  I believe what happens in Slaver's Bay and how quickly the slavers are defeated will determine what happens to the north.  Three of the main characters are already in Essos:  Daenerys Targaryen, Arya Stark, and Tyrion Lannister.  The story has been steadily moving to the east.  

even if slavers bay/dany's story becomes the biggest one, which untill now always was kings landing, 30 chapters are way too much, i highly doubt there will be more then 12

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27 minutes ago, divica said:

I completly agree about arianne declaring for Aegon and even marrying him. However, all we know from dorne is that is isn t conquerable. I think it would be a terrible starting point for her. How would she even keep her army fed for example? And how long would it take her to conquer dorne when they start their guerrilha tactics? While if she is succesful it would be a historical accomplishment it just sounds too risky and uncessary when she has the perfect oportunity to conquer casterly rock.

And dragonstone was sparsely garrisoned when stannis left it (1 or 2 hundred) and we know it was incridibly difficult for loras to take it. Imagine if the lannisters/tyrells leave there a thouseand men for example. It is just too costly and if danny's army is big enough it shouldn t be able to sustain her… Honestly, it sounds like two of the worst places to attack but I would also say the same about storms end...

I’m so glad you brought up Storms End because I think that is pivotal to understanding  what will happen in dorne. Jon Con’s last chapter in Dance ends with Aegon saying he is leading the taking of Storms End. I think this shows that Aegon is brash and wants to be seen as a conqueror and fierce fighter. Like you and I both agree, Arianne also shows qualities of brashness over rationality. So, while you are 100% right about previous attacks on Dorne, I don’t think Arianne and Aegon will commit guerilla warfare. They are going to want to be seen as the people who fought the dragons.

the wildcard is how Aegon will reconcile his original intention of Dany with Arianne. I think Quentyn’s death is the pretext.

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10 minutes ago, Nevets said:

The only way that is going to happen is with 2 volumes.  Dance's problem was that it was poorly paced, not that it wasn't long enough.  If he goes back to the pace of the first 3 books, he can probably make it work. 

See my list above.  While it spread things a little thinly, I think it is workable, if he takes out the fat.

Looking at your list I am relatively certain that bran doesn t have 6 chapters (his story seems to be moving along the lines of him sending dreams to other characters and being an all known character. While we may have a few chapters about him discovering things I don t see him having a lot of chapters.

Sansa will also only have all that chapters if her story is tied to the north (like she having to kill LF in order to align the vale to one of her brothers).

And arianne will have much more than 3 chapters. We already have 2 and she hasn t even met faegon. There is no way she will only have 1 more chapter.

The rest depends a lot on the pacing the story gets. Personally I would add more 1 or 2 chaps to jon because if this is the penultimate book his character has to learn a lot of things (how to warg, thing about the others, robb's will, unite the norht, etc..) while most characters have to move from one place to another without needing to learn a lot… For exemple, I don t see what danny can learn with the dothriaki again… To me those will be some of the most useless chapters… On the other hand, her return to meereen seems prety interesting with all the potential for chaos there at the moment

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8 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I’m so glad you brought up Storms End because I think that is pivotal to understanding  what will happen in dorne. Jon Con’s last chapter in Dance ends with Aegon saying he is leading the taking of Storms End. I think this shows that Aegon is brash and wants to be seen as a conqueror and fierce fighter. Like you and I both agree, Arianne also shows qualities of brashness over rationality. So, while you are 100% right about previous attacks on Dorne, I don’t think Arianne and Aegon will commit guerilla warfare. They are going to want to be seen as the people who fought the dragons.

the wildcard is how Aegon will reconcile his original intention of Dany with Arianne. I think Quentyn’s death is the pretext.

I think their tactics will depend in how danny uses her dragons. Even if they are arrogant and brash they won t face dragons in a open field when they historically know the best method in how to fight against dragons. The other option is if someone invents an anti dragon weapon that they decide to incorporate in their strategy.

And if danny acuses Aegon of being fake and not deserving the throne I can totally see him starting a war with her.

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This game is too hard for me to play, in terms of predicting # of chapters per character.  But I will predict that TWOW will contain 

0 Jaime chapters

0 Samwell chapters

0 Brienne chapters

0 Melisandre chapters.

0 Hotah chapters.

0 JonCon chapters.

0 Asha chapters.

I'm a bit wishy washy about the last 4 of these.

The POVs will be divided among the following:

(1) Dany

(2) Bran

(3) Cersei

(4) Arya

(5) Tyrion

(6) Damp-hair Greyjoy

(7) Theon

(8) Barristan

(9) Victarion

(10) Sansa

(11) Arianne

(12) Davos

(13) Jon Snow / Ghost

I'm a bit wishy washy about the last 2.

Edited by Platypus Rex

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3 minutes ago, divica said:

I think their tactics will depend in how danny uses her dragons. Even if they are arrogant and brash they won t face dragons in a open field when they historically know the best method in how to fight against dragons. The other option is if someone invents an anti dragon weapon that they decide to incorporate in their strategy.

And if danny acuses Aegon of being fake and not deserving the throne I can totally see him starting a war with her.

I think cockiness is going to cause Aegon to confront her. Maybe he think he won’t burn or the dragons won’t attack him? 

And yep, you are right. If she calls him false that would do it

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29 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Depends on chapter lengths 

Given the length of chapters in the books since AGOT, and the preview chapters, I doubt that the chapters are going to be short enough for 100 to work.  It would be nice, but I have a hard time seeing it, especially as each book's chapters are longer than the previous one.  If pushed, I might consider a number in the high 80s.  

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8 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Given the length of chapters in the books since AGOT, and the preview chapters, I doubt that the chapters are going to be short enough for 100 to work.  It would be nice, but I have a hard time seeing it, especially as each book's chapters are longer than the previous one.  If pushed, I might consider a number in the high 80s.  

I thought GRRM stated years ago that he foresaw these last two being huge texts larger than the others

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2 hours ago, Marcelowww said:

I forgot to say that I dont believe Jon Snow will be a POV

And I forgot Samwell:

Samwell - 3 

 

 

 

 

A man permanently trapped inside a wolf might be an interesting challenge for the author.  

 

 

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I'm just going to divide them by region;

Slaver's Bay --> Tyrion 10, Barristan 4, Victarion 0, Dany 9

Braavos --> Arya 8 (I think she's going to high tail it back to Westeros sooner rather than later)

Dorne --> Hotah 2

The Reach --> Sam 6, Damphair 1

The Stormlands --> Jon Connington 4, Arianne 4

King's Landing --> Cersei 8

Riverlands --> Jaime 8, Brienne 0

The Vale --> Sansa 4

The North --> Davos 2, Melisandre 1, Theon 1, Asha 4, Jon Snow 9

Beyond the Wall --> Bran 3

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There is another interesting question regarding the povs.

will we see the índex of the book before it is released?
because it would be a spoiler about jon's fate...

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On 12/18/2018 at 10:00 PM, Lumosaca said:

- Daenerys: 10 chapters. She will be the protagonist of this book. Dracarys!

- Cersei: 8 chapters. Her plot with the Tyrells has to be finished and Aegon's influence in King's Landing is a big threat.

- Tyrion: 8 chapters. Martin loves his dwarf. What can I do? 

- Arya: 7 chapters. Arya's side mission in Braavos will be revealed and completed and she will get the hell out of there.

- Jaime: 7 chapters. Lady Stoneheart and Red Wedding 2.0 are going to be big rocks in Jaime's path.

- Theon: 6 chapters. The Turncloak is back, more complex than never and leading the best chapters of this series. 

- Sansa: 6 chapters. It's time to Sansa Stark reclaim his home and become part of the game of thrones once for all.

- Arianne: 5 chapters. She will cover Aegon's campaign with Connington. 

- Melisandre: 5 chapters. Jon Snow is dead and will not get out of Ghost until the end of this book.

- Bran: 4 chapters. Four chapters with a lot of time travels, revelations and zombie apocalypses. 

- Victarion: 4 chapters. He will be victarioning Slaver's Bay and cutting tongues of stupid dwarfs. Great stuff. 

- Barristan: 4 chapters. The Bold is going to die. Rest in peace Ser Barristan.

- Samwell: 3 chapters. Sam is the only character in Oldtown and needs to find a way to defeat the Others (and cover Euron's attack). 

- Hotah: 2 chapters. Well... we can't hide from this boring parts.

- Connington: 2 chapters. He is a great character, but a secondary one.

- Aeron: 2 chapter. Goodbye Damphair. Someone will kill Euron for us, I promise.  

- Asha: 1 chapter. She will lost space to his brother, but something tells me Asha will die during his own chapter. 

Total: 84 chapters. The Winds of Winter is going to be the longest book in A Song of Ice and Fire. Let's celebrate. Sorry Davos.

 

Why you didnt post Davos?

 

Edited by Marcelowww

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4 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I thought GRRM stated years ago that he foresaw these last two being huge texts larger than the others

I'm not aware of that.  I do know that he has said that ASOS and ADWD were as long as was physically possible - and that some material was removed from ADWD for that reason - there simply wasn't enough room.  So if they are any longer than those two, they are going to need to be in multiple volumes - something that has been considered but so far rejected.

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On 12/19/2018 at 4:41 AM, divica said:

There is another interesting question regarding the povs.

will we see the índex of the book before it is released?
because it would be a spoiler about jon's fate...

I think it's highly possible that Jon won't get a PoV for the entire book even if he is resurrected. It would be a good way to hide whether or not he remains the same person (and at the same time a good way to avoid endless musings about being resurrected).

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51 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

I think it's highly possible that Jon won't get a PoV for the entire book even if he is resurrected. It would be a good way to hide whether or not he remains the same person (and at the same time a good way to avoid endless musings about being resurrected).

I think that would suck. First, IF jon is dead and then ressurected what you are sugesting would be simply avoiding dealing with the issues of ressurection.  It is like answering a question by avoiding answering a question.

Then there is so much investement in jon's story that is would feel cheap to make him a non pov character if there isn t a reason for that. We can t even be sure if cat won t have her pov back if her story justifies that.

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55 minutes ago, divica said:

I think that would suck. First, IF jon is dead and then ressurected what you are sugesting would be simply avoiding dealing with the issues of ressurection.  It is like answering a question by avoiding answering a question.

Then there is so much investement in jon's story that is would feel cheap to make him a non pov character if there isn t a reason for that. We can t even be sure if cat won t have her pov back if her story justifies that.

He might once again become a PoV in Dream. The books are in dire need of convergences and crunches if the story is to be finished in two volumes, and we already have 4 PoV characters that will soon gravitate around Jon. Personally, I prefer this to full on Ghost PoVs.

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17 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

He might once again become a PoV in Dream. The books are in dire need of convergences and crunches if the story is to be finished in two volumes, and we already have 4 PoV characters that will soon gravitate around Jon. Personally, I prefer this to full on Ghost PoVs.

which 4 povs are you talking about?

Because besides mel the other 3 people in the north (davos, asha and theon) to me seem miles away from jon.

Davos will probably be ocupied all book in finding out what happened to rickon and returning to the north (given grrm current style if he does this in 3 or 4 chapter it would be pretty good and davos probably won t have much more than 5 chapters).

And theon and asha depend a lot on what happens to stannis. I have no idea what will happen to them...

To me the interest of ghost chapters was always that he would connect with bran and learn things about the ww and warging besides the ocasional hearing of what is going on in castle black. I think 1 or 2 chapters with jon comatose in ghost or changing between ghost and jon and having dreams with bran telling him stuff and hearing a little of what is going on would be pretty good.

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7 minutes ago, divica said:

which 4 povs are you talking about?

Because besides mel the other 3 people in the north (davos, asha and theon) to me seem miles away from jon.

Davos will probably be ocupied all book in finding out what happened to rickon and returning to the north (given grrm current style if he does this in 3 or 4 chapter it would be pretty good and davos probably won t have much more than 5 chapters).

And theon and asha depend a lot on what happens to stannis. I have no idea what will happen to them...

To me the interest of ghost chapters was always that he would connect with bran and learn things about the ww and warging besides the ocasional hearing of what is going on in castle black. I think 1 or 2 chapters with jon comatose in ghost or changing between ghost and jon and having dreams with bran telling him stuff and hearing a little of what is going on would be pretty good.

They may be far away now, but the story would be pretty out of control if they don't converge in Winds. I mean, what else is left for them to do in the North? Davos probably already has Rickon. If not we'll get a chapter or two about the rescue, no more. He was sent on that mission midway through ADwD and we haven't seen him since then. And Jon will lead all the ppl in the North after Stannis fails to defeat the Others, so naturally all (most?) PoVs there will gravitate towards him.

I think Jon will be out of commission for a relatively long while, enough for the Others to invade and Stannis to die, at least. First of all, if we see him as Ghost there's less tension. Second, I just can't see it working very well. Part of a chapter, like Bran or Arya, sure, but a full chapter or two as a wolf would be weird for me,particularly because it wouldn't quite make sense for him to "overhear" interesting stuff all the time. A wolf's gotta wolf, you want to see him pissing on trees and sniffing butts?

I'm sure Jon will spend some time as Ghost, otherwise he wouldn't have mentioned the second life thing in Varamyr's prologue, and it may even be that George wanted to make a PoV of it, but we'll have to see if actually does it. Silence may be more dramatic.

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Let's see here.

I'm firmly of the belief that Jon won't return until near the end of the book (possibly in the epilogue just as the wall comes down) and won't be a POV ever again just like Catelyn.

Daenerys: 7 (she'll be on her own in the Dothraki sea for awhile before linking up with Tyrion where she can share some of the load)

Tyrion: 6 (once Dany comes back I think he gets fewer chapters, but he'll still get some)

Barristan: 4

Victarion: 3

Arya: 7 (she has a lot to do)

Sansa: 7 (needs to get caught up with the rest of the story)

Samwell: 7 (there's a lot to happen and reveal in Oldtown)

Theon: 4 (can share some of the load with Asha, but things are going to be very busy in the North)

Asha: 3

Davos: 4

Melisandre: 5

Bran: 3 (he's still too far ahead of the rest of the story and in a position to know too much, so he's waiting for the rest of the plot to get caught up to him as he has since Storm)

Arianne: 6 (we know she had three chapters cut from Dance (one not written yet), so her Winds story is probably going to be pretty busy)

Jon Connington: 4

Cersei: 5

Jaime + Brienne: 5

Areo: 2

Aeron: 2

 

Plus a prologue and epilogue for 86 chapters. Probably doable, but only just. Getting things moved well along, but still leaving plenty for Books 7 and 8 to resolve.

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Daenerys 10

Tyrion 7

Sansa 7

Theon 6 

Arya 5 

Jon S. 5

Arianne 5 

Bran 4

Jaime 4

Cersei 4

Samwell 4

Davos 3

Barristan 3

Brienne 2

Aeron 2

Victarion 2

Asha 2

Melisandre 2

Areo 1

Jon C. 1

it's up to 79 chapters (not counting prologue + epilogue). 

 

 

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