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25 minutes ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

Sure, but just because it would be possible does not make 282 more likely than 283. Do you have any other reason to place the battle in 282?

I might point out that 282 is more likely due to how early in 300 Jon Con is thinking back on the Sack. My theory would allow for the battle to occur anytime in 282 from as early as March all the way through to December, whereas 283 would only allow for Jan thru March.

Yes. Aegon’s reported age at the time of the Sack as being about a year, in combination with Rhaenys birth year occurring the same year as Rhaegar and Elia’s marriage, then Elia’s reported six month recovery time before conceiving Aegon. Also, inserting the siege of Storms End as lasting roughly a year also.

I am away from my notes, but will supply evidence tomorrow.

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I do not see that December 282 would work better than January or Februrary 283, but I am waiting for your notes.

Rhaenys is the expert for dates, but I think it is clear the sack took place in the second half of 283, usually it is placed in September (starting the calculation from Daenerys's birthday in May 284.

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@SFDanny, tagging you in this as I believe this subject is of interest to you as well.

 

We know that Daenerys's has become visibly pregnant by the time the turned fourteen in 298 AC.

They were on the far side of the Dothraki sea when Jhiqui brushed the soft swell of Dany’s stomach with her fingers and said, “Khaleesi, you are with child.”
“I know,” Dany told her.
It was her fourteenth name day.

That means she had been pregnant for a while, although we do not learn how long.

Daenerys has given birth by the time the red comet becomes visible in the sky. We don't know how much time passes between the birth and Drogo's funeral pyre (the night the red comet appears), but it could not have been much. When Dany went into labor, she child was expected, which means she had been close to the nine months pregnant (she repeatedly states that her "time is near").

(Interestingly, in Blood of the Dragon, a print of Dany's entire AGOT storyline published shortly before AGOT's release, specifies that Dany was 8 months pregnant when the khalasar leaves Vaes Dothrak. Although the sentence was removed from the chapter by Martin before AGOT was released, it does show us his original intent in giving us an idea of the timing of the events, no matter what Martin's reason was for no longer wanting to specify how far along Dany was at leaving Vaes Dothrak.).

What this tells us, is that between the night of Drogo's funeral pyre (the night the dragons were born), passed less than 9 months. In fact, we can be a bit more specific, and say that at most some seven months would have passed in between, roughly, if not less, as it would have taken some months for the swelling to become noticeable. So while we don't have an exact number, we have a reasonably certain estimation.

Furthermore, we know that the dragons were born in 299 AC, most likely, as the first appearance of the comet, which occurs in that chapter, is also shown in the last Bran chapter from AGOT, when Luwin observes it. Although Dany sees the comet at night, and Luwin during the day, which creates the possibility that some days have passed between the two chapters, it is clear that the two occur closely behind one another. The final Bran chapter of AGOT is known to have occurred in 299 AC, as Rickon, born in 295 AC, has already turned four.

 

All together, this would place Dany's birthday in the middle of the year.

 

But, we have more.

The day Dany arrives in Qarth,  she tells is that it has been half a year since she last learned news from the Seven Kingdoms:

“Ser Jorah, find the docks and see what manner of ships lay at anchor. It has been half a year since I last heard tidings from the Seven Kingdoms. Perhaps the gods will have blown some good captain here from Westeros with a ship to carry us home.”

That would have been at Vaes Dothrak, as the Lhazareen will not have been able to provide such information and the khalasar halted nowhere else as far as we know. So ~6 months before, she had left Vaes Dothrak.

In that same chapter, she meets the captain of the Cinnamon Wind, who tells her the following:

“The honor is mine, Quhuru Mo,” said Dany in the same language. “Have you come from the Summer Isles?”
“This is so, Your Grace, but before, not half a year past, we called at Oldtown. From there I bring you a wondrous gift.”
“A gift?”
“A gift of news. Dragonmother, Stormborn, I tell you true, Robert Baratheon is dead.”

He further tells Daenerys that:

“King Joffrey reigns,” Quhuru Mo agreed, “but the Lannisters rule. Robert’s brothers have fled King’s Landing. The talk is, they mean to claim the crown. And the Hand has fallen, Lord Stark who was King Robert’s friend. He has been seized for treason.

By the time Quhuru meets Daenerys, less than six months have passed since he left Oldtown, and when he left Oldtown (stopping at Dorne on the way) Eddard was still alive. News of Eddard's execution reaches Winterfell in the last Bran chapter of AGOT, which we know occurs in 299 AC. Furthermore, we know that Eddard's execution occurs in 299 AC (as Catelyn tells us that, by the time of the Whispering Wood, Eddard was still alive. Based on the ages of the two Frey boys she takes on as wards before that battle, the battle took place in 299 AC). Hence, Eddard died in 299 AC.

So, Quhuru knows that Eddard was arrested, but not yet that he is dead. This tells us that he left either very, very close to the end of 298 AC, or very, very early in 299 AC (it is not really possible to determine which).

Further telling us that less than half a year has passed between the day Dany arrives in Qarth (entire Chapter 27) and the birth of the dragons, is this:

When the fiery ladder stood forty feet high, the mage leapt forward and began to climb it, scrambling up hand over hand as quick as a monkey. Each rung he touched dissolved behind him, leaving no more than a wisp of silver smoke. When he reached the top, the ladder was gone and so was he.
“A fine trick,” announced Jhogo with admiration.
“No trick,” a woman said in the Common Tongue.
Dany had not noticed Quaithe in the crowd, yet there she stood, eyes wet and shiny behind the implacable red lacquer mask. “What mean you, my lady?”
Half a year gone, that man could scarcely wake fire from dragonglass. He had some small skill with powders and wildfire, sufficient to entrance a crowd while his cutpurses did their work. He could walk across hot coals and make burning roses bloom in the air, but he could no more aspire to climb the fiery ladder than a common fisherman could hope to catch a kraken in his nets.”

Dany looked uneasily at where the ladder had stood. Even the smoke was gone now, and the crowd was breaking up, each man going about his business. In a moment more than a few would find their purses flat and empty. “And now?”
And now his powers grow, Khaleesi. And you are the cause of it.”
“Me?” She laughed. “How could that be?”
The woman stepped closer and lay two fingers on Dany’s wrist. “You are the Mother of Dragons, are you not?”

Quaithe tells Daenerys that the fire mage's powers have grown since the birth of her dragons, and that "half a year" before, he had not been able to perform such tricks as he can now. Thus, we learn, the dragons are less than half a year old at this time.

In this same Daenerys chapter (Daenerys III, Chapter 27 of ACOK), Daenerys's nameday has passed. She had turned fifteen, although she does not state how long ago it has been since her nameday.

But from all of this together, we learn the following:

Less than half a year after Eddard's death, Dany has turned fifteen. Some time after Eddard's arrest, Dany gave birth following a near-to-term pregnancy. She had been pregnant for almost nine months, and her pregnancy had become visible on her fourteenth birthday, placing Rhaego's birth, and subsequently Drogo's death and the birth of the dragons, less than 9 months after her nameday. With the swelling being the essential part here, we know that we should subtract at least a month, and likely two (Not all mothers begin to show at the same moment in pregnancy, but on average, it takes ~12 weeks or so). Let's give Daenerys some month and a half of pregnancy before her handmaid notices it. That would put 7,5 months between her birthday (as Martin uses a period of 9 months for full term pregnancies), and the birth of the dragons (and give her a pregnancy of a little less than 7,5 months, accounting for the short time between the birth of Rhaego and the birth of the dragons. The dragons, based on the comet, were born in 299 AC.

So, early on in 299 AC, it had been ~7,5 months since Dany's birthday, And less than 6 months later, her birthday has passed again. Although there is always a bit room for error (when did Dany begin to show? We don't exactly know), what this does tell us is that Dany's birthday falls in the first half of the year, and based on her pregnany, near the end of that first half. What month exactly, we don't know.

But, we do know that Dany was born nine months after her mother fled King's Landing during Robert's Rebellion, and that Rhaella fled KL between the Battle of the Trident, and the Sack of KL. As TWOIAF tells us that Rossart was named Hand of the King after the Trident, and we learn from the main series that Rossart was Hand for a fortnight, we know that a fortnight passed between the two battles. We don't know when exactly Rhaella left (a day after the Trident, mere days before the Sack, or somewhere in the middle?), but what we do know, thanks to this, is that the Sack took place some 9 to 8,5 months before Dany's birth (depending on when Rhaella fled). With Dany's birth near the end of the first half of 284 AC, the Sack thus took place in late 283 AC.

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7 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

@SFDanny, tagging you in this as I believe this subject is of interest to you as well.

 

We know that Daenerys's has become visibly pregnant by the time the turned fourteen in 298 AC.

They were on the far side of the Dothraki sea when Jhiqui brushed the soft swell of Dany’s stomach with her fingers and said, “Khaleesi, you are with child.”
“I know,” Dany told her.
It was her fourteenth name day.

That means she had been pregnant for a while, although we do not learn how long.

Daenerys has given birth by the time the red comet becomes visible in the sky. We don't know how much time passes between the birth and Drogo's funeral pyre (the night the red comet appears), but it could not have been much. When Dany went into labor, she child was expected, which means she had been close to the nine months pregnant (she repeatedly states that her "time is near").

(Interestingly, in Blood of the Dragon, a print of Dany's entire AGOT storyline published shortly before AGOT's release, specifies that Dany was 8 months pregnant when the khalasar leaves Vaes Dothrak. Although the sentence was removed from the chapter by Martin before AGOT was released, it does show us his original intent in giving us an idea of the timing of the events, no matter what Martin's reason was for no longer wanting to specify how far along Dany was at leaving Vaes Dothrak.).

What this tells us, is that between the night of Drogo's funeral pyre (the night the dragons were born), passed less than 9 months. In fact, we can be a bit more specific, and say that at most some seven months would have passed in between, roughly, if not less, as it would have taken some months for the swelling to become noticeable. So while we don't have an exact number, we have a reasonably certain estimation.

Furthermore, we know that the dragons were born in 299 AC, most likely, as the first appearance of the comet, which occurs in that chapter, is also shown in the last Bran chapter from AGOT, when Luwin observes it. Although Dany sees the comet at night, and Luwin during the day, which creates the possibility that some days have passed between the two chapters, it is clear that the two occur closely behind one another. The final Bran chapter of AGOT is known to have occurred in 299 AC, as Rickon, born in 295 AC, has already turned four.

 

All together, this would place Dany's birthday in the middle of the year.

 

But, we have more.

The day Dany arrives in Qarth,  she tells is that it has been half a year since she last learned news from the Seven Kingdoms:

“Ser Jorah, find the docks and see what manner of ships lay at anchor. It has been half a year since I last heard tidings from the Seven Kingdoms. Perhaps the gods will have blown some good captain here from Westeros with a ship to carry us home.”

That would have been at Vaes Dothrak, as the Lhazareen will not have been able to provide such information and the khalasar halted nowhere else as far as we know. So ~6 months before, she had left Vaes Dothrak.

In that same chapter, she meets the captain of the Cinnamon Wind, who tells her the following:

“The honor is mine, Quhuru Mo,” said Dany in the same language. “Have you come from the Summer Isles?”
“This is so, Your Grace, but before, not half a year past, we called at Oldtown. From there I bring you a wondrous gift.”
“A gift?”
“A gift of news. Dragonmother, Stormborn, I tell you true, Robert Baratheon is dead.”

He further tells Daenerys that:

“King Joffrey reigns,” Quhuru Mo agreed, “but the Lannisters rule. Robert’s brothers have fled King’s Landing. The talk is, they mean to claim the crown. And the Hand has fallen, Lord Stark who was King Robert’s friend. He has been seized for treason.

By the time Quhuru meets Daenerys, less than six months have passed since he left Oldtown, and when he left Oldtown (stopping at Dorne on the way) Eddard was still alive. News of Eddard's execution reaches Winterfell in the last Bran chapter of AGOT, which we know occurs in 299 AC. Furthermore, we know that Eddard's execution occurs in 299 AC (as Catelyn tells us that, by the time of the Whispering Wood, Eddard was still alive. Based on the ages of the two Frey boys she takes on as wards before that battle, the battle took place in 299 AC). Hence, Eddard died in 299 AC.

So, Quhuru knows that Eddard was arrested, but not yet that he is dead. This tells us that he left either very, very close to the end of 298 AC, or very, very early in 299 AC (it is not really possible to determine which).

Further telling us that less than half a year has passed between the day Dany arrives in Qarth (entire Chapter 27) and the birth of the dragons, is this:

When the fiery ladder stood forty feet high, the mage leapt forward and began to climb it, scrambling up hand over hand as quick as a monkey. Each rung he touched dissolved behind him, leaving no more than a wisp of silver smoke. When he reached the top, the ladder was gone and so was he.
“A fine trick,” announced Jhogo with admiration.
“No trick,” a woman said in the Common Tongue.
Dany had not noticed Quaithe in the crowd, yet there she stood, eyes wet and shiny behind the implacable red lacquer mask. “What mean you, my lady?”
Half a year gone, that man could scarcely wake fire from dragonglass. He had some small skill with powders and wildfire, sufficient to entrance a crowd while his cutpurses did their work. He could walk across hot coals and make burning roses bloom in the air, but he could no more aspire to climb the fiery ladder than a common fisherman could hope to catch a kraken in his nets.”

Dany looked uneasily at where the ladder had stood. Even the smoke was gone now, and the crowd was breaking up, each man going about his business. In a moment more than a few would find their purses flat and empty. “And now?”
And now his powers grow, Khaleesi. And you are the cause of it.”
“Me?” She laughed. “How could that be?”
The woman stepped closer and lay two fingers on Dany’s wrist. “You are the Mother of Dragons, are you not?”

Quaithe tells Daenerys that the fire mage's powers have grown since the birth of her dragons, and that "half a year" before, he had not been able to perform such tricks as he can now. Thus, we learn, the dragons are less than half a year old at this time.

In this same Daenerys chapter (Daenerys III, Chapter 27 of ACOK), Daenerys's nameday has passed. She had turned fifteen, although she does not state how long ago it has been since her nameday.

But from all of this together, we learn the following:

Less than half a year after Eddard's death, Dany has turned fifteen. Some time after Eddard's arrest, Dany gave birth following a near-to-term pregnancy. She had been pregnant for almost nine months, and her pregnancy had become visible on her fourteenth birthday, placing Rhaego's birth, and subsequently Drogo's death and the birth of the dragons, less than 9 months after her nameday. With the swelling being the essential part here, we know that we should subtract at least a month, and likely two (Not all mothers begin to show at the same moment in pregnancy, but on average, it takes ~12 weeks or so). Let's give Daenerys some month and a half of pregnancy before her handmaid notices it. That would put 7,5 months between her birthday (as Martin uses a period of 9 months for full term pregnancies), and the birth of the dragons (and give her a pregnancy of a little less than 7,5 months, accounting for the short time between the birth of Rhaego and the birth of the dragons. The dragons, based on the comet, were born in 299 AC.

So, early on in 299 AC, it had been ~7,5 months since Dany's birthday, And less than 6 months later, her birthday has passed again. Although there is always a bit room for error (when did Dany begin to show? We don't exactly know), what this does tell us is that Dany's birthday falls in the first half of the year, and based on her pregnany, near the end of that first half. What month exactly, we don't know.

But, we do know that Dany was born nine months after her mother fled King's Landing during Robert's Rebellion, and that Rhaella fled KL between the Battle of the Trident, and the Sack of KL. As TWOIAF tells us that Rossart was named Hand of the King after the Trident, and we learn from the main series that Rossart was Hand for a fortnight, we know that a fortnight passed between the two battles. We don't know when exactly Rhaella left (a day after the Trident, mere days before the Sack, or somewhere in the middle?), but what we do know, thanks to this, is that the Sack took place some 9 to 8,5 months before Dany's birth (depending on when Rhaella fled). With Dany's birth near the end of the first half of 284 AC, the Sack thus took place in late 283 AC.

I think you have done a wonderful job here. I would have started from a simpler place. We know the sack of King's Landing is in 283 AC. It's published in AGoT appendices and multiple other places. We know Dany's name day is in 284 AC. The timing of both the comet and the news of Robert's death puts her nameday in 284. That the sack and her nameday are in two separate years and her birth is known to have taken place nine moons after the flight to Dragonstone allows us to eliminate trimesters from the range of both her birth and when the sack falls into. Dany can't be born after nine months after the last day of the year 283 - the last day possible for the sack by the AGoT citation. Which means we can eliminate the last trimester for her nameday. 

Because of the nine moon difference between flight and birth we can be sure the sack does not take place in the first three moons of 283. Add in your wonderful summation of other information we can place, I think Dany's birth around midyear give or take a few weeks, and the sack around the start of the ninth month give or take the same few weeks. Knowing the exact timing between the Flight and the Sack would help a lot here. The only other thing off the top of my head is that we know Robert's death occurs in 298 AC and that the news of Dany's pregnancy, and therefore the timing of her nameday previous to that, arrives in King's Landing before the turning of the year. Not a particular important point because it is proven by other clues you have named and others like Margaery's nameday.

I have to go back and look at my notes but Jaime's and Cersei's nameday may help further narrow this down. If I recall correctly they are born in the first part of 266 AC, so let me get back to you on this and I'll see if I'm right and if it helps.

6 hours ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

@Rhaenys_Targaryen

Impressive. Would it be possible to get a proper date for the Battle of Bells by using Robb's birthday?

Robb's nameday combined with Catelyn's memories of her wedding in Riverrun being 15 years previously point to his nameday falling in the last trimester of 283 AC. We know Robb is conceived on Catelyn's and Ned's wedding night and that the Battle of the Bells takes place before the wedding because of the death of Jon's heir at that Battle. We can narrow down the time of the Battle to either in the first three months of 283 before the wedding or possibly in the last month or so in 282 AC. Not as helpful as we could hope for, but it is a start. Because of the timing of the news of Robb's death I think we can narrow his nameday down even further. He turns sixteen before they set out from Riverrun to the Twins. The description of the march north through the rain places at least a month of travel with two months being possible. Robb is probably born in the 10th month and the wedding likely takes place in the first. We know from Cat it is a nine month pregnancy. How long after the Battle of the Bells does the wedding take place? Not long is my guess. Hoster has reason to want it done quickly.

 

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On 1/4/2019 at 6:22 PM, The Wondering Wolf said:

I do not see that December 282 would work better than January or Februrary 283, but I am waiting for your notes.

Rhaenys is the expert for dates, but I think it is clear the sack took place in the second half of 283, usually it is placed in September (starting the calculation from Daenerys's birthday in May 284.

Sorry for the delay in getting back to you. I went ice fishing yesterday and am catching up on things at home today!

The problem with calculating dates when all we have to work with are years, is very problematic if months aren't included in the calculations. If you don't know the month something occurred you're going to have a hard time proving anything with certainty. My birthday example should have demonstrated how "17 years ago" could easily place the Battle of the Bells into 282.

We attempted to hammer out a timeline in Heresy 215 and were unable to reach a consensus. I believe the timeline is ambiguous enough that it could be tweaked to support whatever theory you prefer.

I applaud Rhaenys for her work and dedication to the project, but I think everyone is influenced by their opinions. If you believe Rhaegar abducted Lyanna, then you would likely look for ways to stretch the timeline out. If you think Ashara is Jon's mother, then a tighter and more compact timeline can be demonstrated. I'm just not sure that I want to get into an extended debate on this topic right now. My preference would be to return to my work deciphering the titled chapters. I think the truth of Lyanna's abduction will be found hiding amongst the parallels, metaphors, and symbolism, which even I will admit are still just my interpretation.

 

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56 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

I applaud Rhaenys for her work and dedication to the project, but I think everyone is influenced by their opinions. If you believe Rhaegar abducted Lyanna, then you would likely look for ways to stretch the timeline out. If you think Ashara is Jon's mother, then a tighter and more compact timeline can be demonstrated. 

Let me disagree here. There is no reference to Jon's "true" nameday in any of this. The reference to the nine moons difference between the Flight to Dragonstone and Dany's nameday as stated clearly in the books is still valid whether or not one subscribes to theories of Dany not being Dany or not, as she clearly celebrates her nameday in keeping with that difference, regardless if there is some truth to such hidden theories. Dany hasn't lived her life celebrating her name day on a day that does not conform to what she has been taught even if what she has been taught is not true. The same with Jon.  So, no, the attempt here is to build a time line based on what the material shows. Not on opinions about various fan theories.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Let me disagree here. There is no reference to Jon's "true" nameday in any of this. The reference to the nine moons difference between the Flight to Dragonstone and Dany's nameday as stated clearly in the books is still valid whether or not one subscribes to theories of Dany not being Dany or not, as she clearly celebrates her nameday in keeping with that difference, regardless if there is some truth to such hidden theories. Dany hasn't lived her life celebrating her name day on a day that does not conform to what she has been taught even if what she has been taught is not true. The same with Jon.  So, no, the attempt here is to build a time line based on what the material shows. Not on opinions about various fan theories.

I have a separate example. The calculations for Joffrey's birthday in the wiki. It references GOT Jon chapter 5 as a starting point. In that chapter Jon gives his own age as being 14 and Joffrey's age as being 12. Yet the wiki claims Joffrey was born in 286, and only 13 in year 300 when he married. If he was 12 when Jon was 14, then he should be closer to 15 when he married in 300.

When Game of Thrones first began, Jon thinks to himself that he's 14 years old. If Ashara is his mother, then the time setting at the beginning of GOT is 297. If you think Lyanna is his mother, then you're probably using 298 as the setting for the beginning of GOT.

No matter who you believe Jon's mother is, GRRM has said that Dany was born nine months after Jon which places her birth month three months before his. Whenever she turned 14 it would have been three months before Jon turned 15. 

A lot of these calculations are dependent upon when you think the current story began, and on who you think Jon's mother is, and then subsequent calculations are dependent upon an earlier calculation, like this notion that Catelyn's marriage was early in 283. 

Edited to add: Something was bothering me, and it was the ages of Dany and Jon. When Dany has her 14th name day, three months later Jon should be turning 15. The dragons hatched at the end of Game of Thrones...hang on, I have to gather my thoughts....be right back.

Edited by Feather Crystal

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The story starts in 298 AC for sure. We get Joffrey's 13th nameday in A Clash of Kings and it is right in Sansa's first chapter, so very early in 299 AC. Jon Arryn dies two weeks after Joffrey's 12th nameday.

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

I have a separate example. The calculations for Joffrey's birthday in the wiki. It references GOT Jon chapter 5 as a starting point. In that chapter Jon gives his own age as being 14 and Joffrey's age as being 12. Yet the wiki claims Joffrey was born in 286, and only 13 in year 300 when he married. If he was 12 when Jon was 14, then he should be closer to 15 when he married in 300.

Joffrey had just turned 12 near Catelyn's first chapter (as Jon Arryn died sh following his nameday tourney), and had just turned 13 at the start of ACoK (as that's his 13th nameday tourney). He did not reach his 14th birthday (not his 15th)  when he died in 300. The typical reading of this is that he was born early in the year of 286, but sometime after the start of the year. AGoT post-prologue starts early in the year of 298, ACoK starts early in 299, and Joffrey dies mid-ASoS at the turn of 300, probably just weeks away from his 14th nameday.

But of course, there's time between when Jon Arryn's death and news of it reaching Winterfell, and substantially more time between Robert leaving KL and reaching Winterfell, and yet more time before they travel back south again and Jon goes to the Wall. We know when Benjen leaves the Wall for his ranging, 3 days after arriving, Jon is still not 15, but Benjen intends to be back for his 15th nameday.. but that goes by by a fortnight the next time we see Jon. Which all together says that Jon's 15th nameday is at least several months after Joffrey's 12th nameday.

Edited by Ran

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Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

The story starts in 298 AC for sure. We get Joffrey's 13th nameday in A Clash of Kings and it is right in Sansa's first chapter, so very early in 299 AC. Jon Arryn dies two weeks after Joffrey's 12th nameday.

How do you know for sure the story begins in 298? How do you know Clash is 299?

30 minutes ago, Ran said:

Joffrey had just turned 12 near Catelyn's first chapter (as Jon Arryn died sh following his nameday tourney), and had just turned 13 at the start of ACoK (as that's his 13th nameday tourney). He did not reach his 14th birthday (not his 15th)  when he died in 300. The typical reading of this is that he was born early in the year of 286, but sometime after the start of the year. AGoT post-prologue starts early in the year of 298, ACoK starts early in 299, and Joffrey dies mid-ASoS at the turn of 300, probably just weeks away from his 14th nameday.

I must have missed that Joffrey had just turned 12 when Catelyn was reminiscing about her 15th wedding anniversary. Is it implied somewhere? Are you saying Joffrey's 12th name day occurred shortly after Jon Arryn died? Isn't it possible that Joffrey's 13th name day could have occurred later at the end of that same year?

There seems to be a tradition of weddings during the first of the year, which then typically pushes the firstborn's birthday into the last quarter of a year.

Is the passage of time generally accepted as being one year per book? (AGOT=298, ACOK=299, ASOS=300, AFFC/ADWD=301?)

 

Edited by Feather Crystal

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1 minute ago, Feather Crystal said:

How do you know for sure the story begins in 298? How do you know Clash is 299?

I do not want to sound rude at all, but to be honest I am a bit surprised that you do not seem to be familiar with the timeline of the books while stating things like "everyone is influenced by their opinions". There are timelines based on proper calculations and I would recommand to have a look on them before discussing things further. Of course there might be some inaccuracies, but at least the years of each book are commonly accepted (AGOT 298/299, ACOK 299, ASOS 299/300, AFFC 300, ADWD 300). This one is quite good and gives you a nice overview.

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

How do you know for sure the story begins in 298? How do you know Clash is 299?

I must have missed that Joffrey had just turned 12 when Catelyn was reminiscing about her 15th wedding anniversary. Is it implied somewhere? Are you saying Joffrey's 12th name day occurred shortly after Jon Arryn died? Isn't it possible that Joffrey's 13th name day could have occurred later at the end of that same year?

There seems to be a tradition of weddings during the first of the year, which then typically pushes the firstborn's birthday into the last quarter of a year.

Is the passage of time generally accepted as being one year per book? (AGOT=298, ACOK=299, ASOS=300, AFFC/ADWD=301?)

 

Jon Arryn dies a fortnight after the tourney in honor of Joffery's twelfth nameday. We can be sure this is in 298 AC because he is said to be thirteen when he has his next nameday tourney described in ACoK when Tyrion and his companions ride into the Red Keep, AND he is still thirteen when he dies at the purple wedding on the first day of 300 AC.

This tells us, btw, that all of the story from Bran's story onward, not counting the prologue in AGoT and the Daenerys first chapters take place in 298 or later. As to Clash being in 299, @Rhaenys_Targaryen has shown how above. Ooops, I see @Ran has also explained this. I won't continue, but just ask questions and people will be happy to explain why we think we know what we know.

Edited by SFDanny

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

No matter who you believe Jon's mother is, GRRM has said that Dany was born nine months after Jon which places her birth month three months before his. Whenever she turned 14 it would have been three months before Jon turned 15.

Let me deal with this point separately to underline something. What Martin said in his remarks outside the books, may or may not be accurate, but the validity of this additional information isn't necessarily even part of this effort to build a timeline. For instance, a certain fan theory we will call a variant on R+L=J tells us the meaning of the quote by Martin reveals that Jon's nameday in the books really isn't his nameday. That Ned, perhaps with the knowledge and help of a very few others, in fact lied and changed the date Jon was actually born to what the rest of the world, including Jon himself, believe to be the day he was born. None of this theory would need be reflected in how a timeline is built from the information in the books. In fact, it may contradict Martin's remarks. YOU decide what if anything is the meaning of that contradiction. The timeline shows only what the books say. Not what the author says outside of the books, unless it is specifically an edit of the books.

What the books tell us is that is that the month of Jon's nameday does indeed follow the month in which Dany's nameday falls, and it also shows that Dany is indeed fourteen for a while before Jon turns fifteen. We can say by the information the books tell us that Jon's birth is celebrated such that we would know him to be born in the Year 283 AC and Dany's birth to have occurred in 284 AC. Many of us have argued that Dany's nameday is, true or not, shown in the books to be around midyear. @Rhaenys_Targaryen has just given you an excellent summation of the information in the books that tell us this to be so. Others have shown and argued that the nameday celebrated in the books for Jon is sometime in the fall months after Robb's and before Margaery's, likely late in the 10th month. Again what you make of those bits of information is up for each reader to decide.

As and aside to this discussion it is best when using Martin's quote to actually say what he says. He says the difference in age between Jon and Dany is "eight or nine months or thereabouts," not "nine months." The difference between can be critical when evaluating theories.

Edited by SFDanny

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5 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I must have missed that Joffrey had just turned 12 when Catelyn was reminiscing about her 15th wedding anniversary. Is it implied somewhere? Are you saying Joffrey's 12th name day occurred shortly after Jon Arryn died? Isn't it possible that Joffrey's 13th name day could have occurred later at the end of that same year?

Jon Arryn died a fortnight after the tourney

Robert shook his head. "I have never seen a man sicken so quickly. We gave a tourney on my son's name day. If you had seen Jon then, you would have sworn he would live forever. A fortnight later he was dead. The sickness was like a fire in his gut. It burned right through him."

That tournee was doe Joffrey's name day. He is twelve when arriving at Winterfell a while later, thus, the tourney was for his twelft birthday. In the first Sansa chapter in Clash, we see him celebrating his 13th birthday, so a year has passed. And on the first day of 300 AC, Joffrey is still thirteen. So he was thirteen in both 300 AC and in 299 AC, telling us that had had turned 13 in 299 AC, and thus had turned twelve in 298 AC, and would have turned 14 in 300 AC, had he lived long enough.

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You all are quite right. My knowledge of the timeline is lacking! I’m sorry to have come off as rude. I was just very confused.

A simple word search of “name day” brought up Joffrey’s 12th name day tourney, then Jon Arryn’s death two weeks later. Then a few chapters later Jon is talking about his upcoming 15th name day. What I found really interesting is after Jon notes his name day had come and gone, the next Daenerys chapter has her claiming she’s 14!, which implies her name day may be within the same month as Jon’s.

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

You all are quite right. My knowledge of the timeline is lacking! I’m sorry to have come off as rude. I was just very confused.

A simple word search of “name day” brought up Joffrey’s 12th name day tourney, then Jon Arryn’s death two weeks later. Then a few chapters later Jon is talking about his upcoming 15th name day. What I found really interesting is after Jon notes his name day had come and gone, the next Daenerys chapter has her claiming she’s 14!, which implies her name day may be within the same month as Jon’s.

I would caution against using chapter sequence as an indicator of real sequence. When switching from one storyline to another, as in your example, it can be just the reverse.

Edited by SFDanny

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3 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

I would caution against using chapter sequence as an indicator of real sequence. When switching from one storyline to another, as in your example, it can be just the reverse.

Well that's a fine kettle of fish! 

I knew the last two books are meant to be read as one book, but I was not aware other books were out of sequence.

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12 hours ago, SFDanny said:

or instance, a certain fan theory we will call a variant on R+L=J tells us the meaning of the quote by Martin reveals that Jon's nameday in the books really isn't his nameday. That Ned, perhaps with the knowledge and help of a very few others, in fact lied and changed the date Jon was actually born to what the rest of the world, including Jon himself, believe to be the day he was born.

If Ned is lying about Jon's birth date, then I guess that would explain Catelyn giving Jon the stink eye and wondering why he looked so big for his age.

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Just now, Feather Crystal said:

If Ned is lying about Jon's birth date, then I guess that would explain Catelyn giving Jon the stink eye and wondering why he looked so big for his age.

Off topic for this thread, so this question is not meant to start a discussion,  but I'm just curious where this is stated? All I recall is Cat giving Jon a "look" whenever he was better than Robb at something.

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