U.S. Politics: Oh Donnie Boy, the Feds are calling...

[DMC]

1 hour ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Is there a particularly compelling reason for House Democrats to adopt PAYGO when none of the bills they pass will end up going anywhere?

No, especially considering even when there's unified government each party just ignores and works around it anyway.

[Fez]

1 hour ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Is there a particularly compelling reason for House Democrats to adopt PAYGO when none of the bills they pass will end up going anywhere? I could understand the argument for PAYGO if they held both chambers of Congress and the Presidency, but since they will mostly pass messaging bills and bills designed to put political pressure on Republicans, I don't understand the need for it now.

Basically that there's no reason not to have it, Trump and Senate Republicans would never go for deficit-funded progressive legislation, so why bother setting up the option for the House to vote on it? Instead, they can adopt it (and it's certainly an improvement from the Cut-and-Go that House Republicans had) and claim fiscal responsibility to impress the handful of people that actually care about this stuff.

Also, Democrats want to raise taxes on the wealthy and this lets them easily set up the message as to why they want to do so; directly the linking the tax increases to beneficial policies changes.

[Fragile Bird]

Fed Board Chair Powell was just asked at a conference if he were requested by Trump to resign, would he resign.

His answer was a firm No!

[Fez]

As expected, Pat Roberts has announced he won't run for re-election.

Giving Democrats another open senate seat to compete for. I think Roberts was actually weaker than most potential Kansas Republican senate candidates though. The best thing that could happen here is if Kobach runs and wins the primary. Federal races are generally less elastic than Governor's races, but he's already proven he can lose Kansas and I think he can do it again.

I have no idea what Democratic bench is like in the state these days, but hopefully Sharice Davids does not run; I'd like her to concentrate on keeping her House seat in Democratic hands. Maybe Paul Davis would be a good option?

[lokisnow]

30 minutes ago, Fez said:

As expected, Pat Roberts has announced he won't run for re-election.

Giving Democrats another open senate seat to compete for. I think Roberts was actually weaker than most potential Kansas Republican senate candidates though. The best thing that could happen here is if Kobach runs and wins the primary. Federal races are generally less elastic than Governor's races, but he's already proven he can lose Kansas and I think he can do it again.

I have no idea what Democratic bench is like in the state these days, but hopefully Sharice Davids does not run; I'd like her to concentrate on keeping her House seat in Democratic hands. Maybe Paul Davis would be a good option?

Is Sibelius still tarnished by her inability to make a website? Or is she more yesterdays news?

I’d think there’s someone within the party in the state legislature that could make a strong run at this seat. Dems should start registering (especially young) voters in The Kansas suburbs of KC, Lawrence, Manhattan, Salinas, Topeka and Wichita tomorrow. I’d say this senate seat would be worth a million or two in continual registration investment over the next twenty months.

[Fez]

43 minutes ago, lokisnow said:

Is Sibelius still tarnished by her inability to make a website? Or is she more yesterdays news?

I’d think there’s someone within the party in the state legislature that could make a strong run at this seat. Dems should start registering (especially young) voters in The Kansas suburbs of KC, Lawrence, Manhattan, Salinas, Topeka and Wichita tomorrow. I’d say this senate seat would be worth a million or two in continual registration investment over the next twenty months.

I want to say I saw a poll in the past year or two of Sebelius' favorability in Kansas and it was terrible, but I don't remember for sure.

I agree that this seat is absolutely worth some national investment in the state; quite a bit actually. With Democrats picking up the Governorship, one of the House districts, and there being multiple Republican legislators who flipped parties because their suburbs have gotten so blue so quickly, there's clearly change in the air in Kansas. Or at least the potential for it.

Hopefully Gov-Elect Kelly has a really successful first year in office too; to remind voters that Democrats aren't devils and are better than just being the anti-Trump/Kobach/Brownback.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Hopefully this is just typical Trump hyperbole, but damn:    

Quote

Democrats emerged from what they called a “contentious” two-hour meeting at the White House on Friday showing little optimism about ending a partial government shutdown.

Bipartisan congressional leaders huddled with President Donald Trump as they try to break an impasse over the president’s demand for $5 billion to build his proposed border wall. The president threatened to keep nine U.S. departments closed “for a very long period of time — months or even years” — until he gets the funding, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said.

In comments delivered later Friday from the White House Rose Garden, Trump described the meeting as “very productive.” He said that he had designated a group to advance talks over the weekend.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/trump-threatened-to-keep-the-government-closed-for-months-or-even-years-schumer-says.html

 

Been wondering, what the hell happens at the SotU if the government is still shuttered?     

[Maithanet]

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Been wondering, what the hell happens at the SotU if the government is still shuttered?     

Virtually everyone that is at the SOTU is an essential employee anyway, so I assume...nothing?  Maybe the commandant of the Coast Guard will boycott in protest (although that's probably too political a move for him to realistically make). 

[Fez]

7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Been wondering, what the hell happens at the SotU if the government is still shuttered?     

It probably wouldn't be affected, the legislative branch is already funded for the year so all their employees are getting paid. Around half the Federal agencies are already funded, though there's some very important ones in the half that are not.

Of course, if the shutdown drags that long, I wouldn't be surprised if Pelosi rescinds the invitation to Trump to give the speech; which is currently set for January 29. I'm not sure what would happen then, maybe Trump gives a speech just to the Senate in the Senate Chamber, or maybe a speech just to Republican Congressfolk somehow other than the Capitol Building.

[IheartIheartTesla]

I care more about the $3-5K tax refund I get every year way more than the $10/year an illegal immigrant may cost me (since they cant actually take my jerb) in terms of ER visits or whatnot. Not sure why more Americans dont feel the same way (or wont, once the shutdown drags on)

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I get that it’s still funded. I was more curious on what Fez touched on. The Constitution doesn’t specifically say when it has to happen, so couldn’t they just push it back? I would think both sides would prefer that to Trump just speaking to the Senate, or Republicans, or worse, letting the show go on as planned and him picking a fight with Congressional Democrats on live TV, because you can bet that that would happen.      

[Larry of the Lawn]

18 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I care more about the $3-5K tax refund I get every year way more than the $10/year an illegal immigrant may cost me (since they cant actually take my jerb) in terms of ER visits or whatnot. Not sure why more Americans dont feel the same way (or wont, once the shutdown drags on)

Racism

[ThinkerX]

26 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

I care more about the $3-5K tax refund I get every year way more than the $10/year an illegal immigrant may cost me (since they cant actually take my jerb) in terms of ER visits or whatnot. Not sure why more Americans dont feel the same way (or wont, once the shutdown drags on)

I'm in almost the same boat, though because of bureaucratic reasons, it'll be at least a month, probably longer, before I have the needed paperwork to do my taxes.  Hopefully this mess will be cleared up by then.

 

That said, if the impasse continues, doesn't that put a major strain on ICE and whatnot to continue the purge of illegal aliens?  I mean, eventually, the enforcers are going to want paid.

 

[Fez]

The IRS problem is going to be coming up much sooner than some people think too; there's a quarterly filing deadline at the end of January, for folks who do that.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I care more about the $3-5K tax refund I get every year way more than the $10/year an illegal immigrant may cost me (since they cant actually take my jerb) in terms of ER visits or whatnot. Not sure why more Americans dont feel the same way (or wont, once the shutdown drags on)

I have a small soapbox about using the US Treasury as your savings mechanism that I would like to climb on for a second.  Someone up thread said that the GOP will start getting nervous when the wealthy don't get their refunds.  THE WEALTHY DON'T GET REFUNDS*.  Seriously.  Really really rich people are averse to providing the government with an interest free loan, and because marginal dollars are worth less to them, they moan about paying actual tax, but would rather do that (and have use of the money during the year) than overpay and get a refund.  As long as you are hitting your estimated tax safe harbors, you are good to go.

If you CAN, you are better off trying to do the same (that is, not relying on the whims of the refund process to do your saving for you).  I realize that this isn't realistic for everyone (especially if each paycheck matters), but if you can, it is probably worth spending some time with a financial professional/advisor/yourself, to figure out the correct withholding levels and amending your W-4 appropriately so that any refund or payment you have to make is (hopefully) de minimis.  

 

*Obviously not always true, but in an ordinary course year will tend to be true, and if they do have refunds, then they tend to apply it as a prepayment against the next year's income tax liability rather than to take it in cash.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

6 minutes ago, Fez said:

The IRS problem is going to be coming up much sooner than some people think too; there's a quarterly filing deadline at the end of January, for folks who do that.

They will accept returns and estimated payments and they will be treated as timely filed (mostly electronic at this point anyhow).  People who are writing TJCA regs are also exempt to that limited extent for a little longer too.

[Fez]

33 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

I have a small soapbox about using the US Treasury as your savings mechanism that I would like to climb on for a second.  Someone up thread said that the GOP will start getting nervous when the wealthy don't get their refunds.  THE WEALTHY DON'T GET REFUNDS*.  Seriously.  Really really rich people are averse to providing the government with an interest free loan, and because marginal dollars are worth less to them, they moan about paying actual tax, but would rather do that (and have use of the money during the year) than overpay and get a refund.  As long as you are hitting your estimated tax safe harbors, you are good to go.

If you CAN, you are better off trying to do the same (that is, not relying on the whims of the refund process to do your saving for you).  I realize that this isn't realistic for everyone (especially if each paycheck matters), but if you can, it is probably worth spending some time with a financial professional/advisor/yourself, to figure out the correct withholding levels and amending your W-4 appropriately so that any refund or payment you have to make is (hopefully) de minimis.  

 

*Obviously not always true, but in an ordinary course year will tend to be true, and if they do have refunds, then they tend to apply it as a prepayment against the next year's income tax liability rather than to take it in cash.

Thanks for the info. I believe I was the one who mentioned the wealthy, and I should clarify. I don't mean the truly wealthy, I mean more the $200k-$500k combined household income families that itemize but don't fully know what they're doing or use a big, "mainstream' accounting firm that doesn't really know them. Probably live in the suburbs and have at least two luxury cars; maybe have a second home. Good chance they live paycheck to paycheck because they wanted the same day-to-day lifestyle as the neighbors who make $1 million+ annually. I suspect a lot of those kind of people still get refunds each year.

And demographically there aren't a huge number of them, maybe 4 million across the entire country, but they are a huge source of political funding for Republicans (and Democrats, if they lean that way) and have influence. They are also concentrated that if they switch sides its enough to ensure that a lot of Democratic House flips (like in Orange County) stay flipped in 2020 and to start flipping some of those southern city suburbs that aren't all the way there yet.

ETA: Though as I mentioned before, this

is probably what the ends the shutdown the quickest, if it gets worse. 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

1 minute ago, Fez said:

Thanks for the info. I believe I was the one who mentioned the wealthy, and I should clarify. I don't mean the truly wealthy, I mean more the $200k-$500k combined household income families that itemize but don't fully know what they're doing or use a big, "mainstream' accounting firm that doesn't really know them. Probably live in the suburbs and have at least two luxury cars; maybe have a second home. Good chance they live paycheck to paycheck because they wanted the same day-to-day lifestyle as the neighbors who make $1 million+ annually. I suspect a lot of those kind of people still get refunds each year.

And demographically there aren't a huge number of them, maybe 4 million across the entire country, but they are a huge source of political funding for Republicans (and Democrats, if they lean that way) and have influence. They are also concentrated that if they switch sides its enough to ensure that a lot of Democratic House flips (like in Orange County) stay flipped in 2020 and to start flipping some of those southern city suburbs that aren't all the way there yet.

Maybe that's right?  The W-4 system encourages people to set it and forget it, and if you are both salaried in that bracket, I could see it happening.  

[ThinkerX]

45 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

I have a small soapbox about using the US Treasury as your savings mechanism that I would like to climb on for a second.  Someone up thread said that the GOP will start getting nervous when the wealthy don't get their refunds.  THE WEALTHY DON'T GET REFUNDS*.  Seriously.  Really really rich people are averse to providing the government with an interest free loan, and because marginal dollars are worth less to them, they moan about paying actual tax, but would rather do that (and have use of the money during the year) than overpay and get a refund.  As long as you are hitting your estimated tax safe harbors, you are good to go.

If you CAN, you are better off trying to do the same (that is, not relying on the whims of the refund process to do your saving for you).  I realize that this isn't realistic for everyone (especially if each paycheck matters), but if you can, it is probably worth spending some time with a financial professional/advisor/yourself, to figure out the correct withholding levels and amending your W-4 appropriately so that any refund or payment you have to make is (hopefully) de minimis.  

 

*Obviously not always true, but in an ordinary course year will tend to be true, and if they do have refunds, then they tend to apply it as a prepayment against the next year's income tax liability rather than to take it in cash.

Not wealthy.  In my case, the refund stems from some truly impressive work vehicle repair bills (most of $10,000) and medical expenses.  That's this year.  Last year, it was the joy of an unexpected $6000 engine replacement, plus other mechanical bills.   I do allow a certain amount for repairs, but the past couple years wear and tear has not been a joy.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I really don’t want to sound like an alarmist, I was laughing at the Obama 2012 people who though he could lose MN, but Trump said something today in his mess of a press conference that has my hackles raised. He used the term that many have feared he might one day: national emergency. Now, declaring a national emergency to take control of the army for the purposes of building the wall isn’t that troublesome in and of itself, but what it does is twofold. First, it lets Trump know he can get away with it, and god knows what he could do with it in the future. Second, it lowers the bar for all future presidents if he does in fact do this. We’re still a long ways away from the Rubicon, but this could bring us one step closer, which is a frightening thought to me.