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U.S. Politics: Oh Donnie Boy, the Feds are calling...


A Horse Named Stranger

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2 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

There’s a good story in the NYT

The article closes with a quote from one Trump supporter that is pretty pithy about what seems to be the mentality of the Trump supporters. A pissed off prison nurse says “He’s not hurting the people he’s supposed to hurt”.

Imagine, it’s not ‘he’s not helping the people he’s supposed to help’, it’s ‘he’s not hurting people’.

I’d link the article but I still haven’t looked up how to link stuff on my phone, lol.

I've got your back, here's your link.

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21 minutes ago, DMC said:

It's always seemed a matter of when not if Trump goes off the deep end and triggers a constitutional crisis.  I just thought, ya know, there'd actually be something that provoked him.  This would be a very peculiar way to take such a stand, even for him.

Why? Trump takes a stand when he doesn't get what he wants. It doesn't matter the stakes or the issues or anything like that - there is nothing too petty for him to shoot back at, nothing that attempts to provoke him that won't succeed. 

As Clinton said, this is a man who can be provoked by a tweet. Proportionate response is not something he'd understand, even if he understood the word 'proportionate'. 

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29 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Why?

Because doing something like defying court orders significantly risks his presidency.  Nobody knows what would happen in such an instance with any solid degree of probability, sure, but even Trump knows that it's a significant risk - or at least his past behavior suggests he does, and those around him certainly do.  One would think he'd only be willing to take that risk if there was something like Mueller indictments of him or his family, or the economy tanks, or even his poll numbers go south of his base (although that seems to be conditional on one of the first two happening).

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Just now, DMC said:

Because doing something like defying court orders significantly risks his presidency.  Nobody knows what would happen in such an instance with any solid degree of probability, sure, but even Trump knows that it's a significant risk - or at least his past behavior suggests he does, and those around him certainly do.  One would think he'd only be willing to take that risk if there was something like Mueller indictments of him or his family, or the economy tanks, or even his poll numbers go south of his base (although that seems to be conditional on one of the first two happening).

I guess I don't see that as an issue that Trump cares about all that much, especially now that Kelly and Mattis are gone. Trump's worldview is that largely anything he does he'll get away with, because he's done that his entire life. He's consistently done things that weren't particularly risk-averse because it pissed him off. 

His hero POTUS is Andrew Jackson, he of the 'lets see you enforce it' apocryphal story. 

I mentioned before that a narcissist sociopath like Trump will have a hard time ever backing down from his grandstanding, and this is a problem for everyone. I didn't see him declaring a state of emergency, but only because I didn't know that that was even a reasonable option. Now that I know, it seems obvious that he'll do it or try to. Anything to get his way. 

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6 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

I guess I don't see that as an issue that Trump cares about all that much, especially now that Kelly and Mattis are gone. Trump's worldview is that largely anything he does he'll get away with, because he's done that his entire life. He's consistently done things that weren't particularly risk-averse because it pissed him off. 

This doesn't make sense to me because if that were the case, why wait two years?  Why would Kelly or Mattis (or whomever) be able to restrain him in the first place (not that I'm saying they did much - hell, Kelly would probably be all for calling a national emergency in this case if he was still there)?  Why would he have let the courts effectively rewrite his travel ban?  Why would have still let the Mueller investigation go on?  Etcetera.

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Just now, DMC said:

This doesn't make sense to me because if that were the case, why wait two years?  Why would Kelly or Mattis (or whomever) be able to restrain him in the first place (not that I'm saying they did much - hell, Kelly would probably be all for calling a national emergency in this case if he was still there)?  Why would he have let the courts effectively rewrite his travel ban?  Why would have still let the Mueller investigation go on?  Etcetera.

For the last two years, Trump has been able to get other things he wanted more - namely the tax break, the muslim ban, the ACA gutting, the regulation gutting, etc. Plus he hadn't staked his claim on the wall being the most important thing in the history of ever until recently - because Fox hadn't put him up to it and told him his presidency would be a failure if he didn't stand up to it right now. He didn't have Pelosi challenging him on national TV and having him say he'd be proud to shutdown the government. 

I also think that Trump doesn't really understand how the government works, and until recently no one around him was willing to suggest things like declaration of emergency to get what he wanted because it's an obviously stupid idea. Trump didn't really think he could do this. If he had, he probably would have much sooner. For him (like most people) declaring a national emergency was something you do in the case of an active crisis, and he didn't realize how much power the POTUS has in this specific case. 

As to the Mueller investigation, that's tougher. We have reports that he wanted to end it and kill it, and apparently other people disagreed. My suspicion is that his chief counsel and his kids both advised against it, and he took their advise. On the wall, however, they're not as loud as Limbaugh and Hannity and Stephen Miller. 

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2 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Plus he hadn't staked his claim on the wall being the most important thing in the history of ever until recently - because Fox hadn't put him up to it and told him his presidency would be a failure if he didn't stand up to it right now.

We agree this is the motivation, which is why it seems much more likely based on his past actions that he saves face by declaring a national emergency, re-appropriating and/or using emergency funds (which likely will amount to pocket change), then being fine with getting slapped down by the courts later (or, unfortunately, maybe ultimately not).  Because if he does that, Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh will stop calling him mean names, which is really what this is all about.

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