GRRM: Some folk got it right.

[SirArthur]

Another RLJ discussion ? 

It'a a good thing there is not an entire Targaryen restoration plot without Dany or Jon. That would be embarrassing if that would lead to something not involving any of them. Oh wait ... 

[alienarea]

If I am one of those who figured it out you're screwed.

 

[James Fenimore Cooper XXII]

The theorists who guessed the Starks will all die and get their second lives as direwolves got it right.  Jon dies and wargs into Ghost.  Arya gets croaked for betraying the faceless men and wargs into Nym.  Rickon and Bran die and warg their dws.  Sansa just dies.  

[Lord Lannister]

On 12/30/2018 at 3:56 PM, hallam said:

“At least one or two readers had put together the extremely subtle and obscure clues that I'd planted in the books and came to the right solution."

This does not sound like confirmation of the common wisdom here.

It looks pretty clear that the show and the books are taking very different tacks in places. Is GRRM really working on Winds of Winter or was it finished some time ago and delayed because the HBO plot is different?

Eh, this just seems to me to be a coy statement that doesn't actually state anything. Nothing new here.

[Platypus Rex]

23 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

"(arguably there is already enough information in the series for us to be pretty certain, just not 100%)."

Yeah well, people keep arguing that, don't they.  I don't agree.  It may be the most likely of several theories, but it is not near 100%.

"But I don't see how it would matter to the plot."

Neither do I.  But then again, I don't necessarily assume I know what the plot is.

Maybe something to do with dragons?  Targs can ride dragons, you know.  And we have some unresolved prophesy of a wolf with wings.    

"Jon already has a positive image and a reasonable following based on his own merit. and we have Robb's will to legitimize him as King in the North (which arguably would be a more emotionally satisfying "rightful heir reveal" than R+L=J). At that point he would be an important enough player that the reveal wouldn't change very much."

You are obviously invested in your own ideas about where things are going.

You think you know what Robb's will says.  I think Robb's will is a device for revealing things the reader was not meant to know yet.  I think Ned revealed certain secrets to Robb before he left Winterfell.  What secrets exactly?  Pick your favorite Stark-related theory and "insert here".

[John Suburbs]

On ‎1‎/‎4‎/‎2019 at 4:56 PM, kissdbyfire said:

Only three here, but that’s three more than none.

TWoIaF, The year of the False Spring

With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides.

ADwD, The Kingbreaker

Prince Rhaegar loved his Lady Lyanna, and thousands died for it.

 

AGoT, Eddard X

It would have to be his grandfather, for Jory's father was buried far to the south. Martyn Cassel had perished with the rest. Ned had pulled the tower down afterward, and used its bloody stones to build eight cairns upon the ridge. It was said that Rhaegar had named that place the tower of joy, but for Ned it was a bitter memory.

 

And seriously, Lyanna and Aerys? There is nothing at all in the text to support this. Basically it’s as unsupported as Lyanna and Brandon.

 

But none of these sources was there. We have yet to meet one person or hear a first-hand account that states, "I was there and I saw Rhaegar kidnap Lyanna." I'm not sure what theory on RLJ you may or may not believe, but most of the fandom thinks Lyanna was not kidnapped at all but ran away with Rhaegar willingly. So right there, we have doubt that this story of a kidnapping is true, despite all of the "sources" that claim otherwise. So if this part of the story is false...

And I never said any of this was confirmed, just that Rhaegar is not the only possible father of Jon.

But I think I'll start another thread on this, since you have helped me clarify some thoughts on Harrenhal and the KotL.

[The Coconut God]

On 1/5/2019 at 11:15 PM, Platypus Rex said:

Yeah well, people keep arguing that, don't they.  I don't agree.  It may be the most likely of several theories, but it is not near 100%.

Well, if we're never explicitly told but we are given one more strong clue to work with, I would consider it satisfying enough. Like I said, the text itself doesn't seem to require it for the satisfying completion of any of the outstanding arcs. Any promises George might have made off-text are a different matter.

On 1/5/2019 at 11:15 PM, Platypus Rex said:

Neither do I.  But then again, I don't necessarily assume I know what the plot is.

Maybe something to do with dragons?  Targs can ride dragons, you know.  And we have some unresolved prophesy of a wolf with wings.    

The problem with that is that chosen ones with special abilities are a dime a dozen. ASoIaF doesn't need to employ such a trope to be a great story, it's already way above it. Arguably, incorporating something like that in the climax would even lower it's quality.

The story also works very well with the winged wolf being Bran.

Mind you, I'm not saying George won't take the story in that direction, it's his series and I'm sure it will still be a lot of fun to read no matter what, I'm only saying that we shouldn't view it as a mandatory development. It's not mandatory at all.

[Platypus Rex]

3 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

Well, if we're never explicitly told but we are given one more strong clue to work with, I would consider it satisfying enough. Like I said, the text itself doesn't seem to require it for the satisfying completion of any of the outstanding arcs. Any promises George might have made off-text are a different matter.

The problem with that is that chosen ones with special abilities are a dime a dozen. ASoIaF doesn't need to employ such a trope to be a great story, it's already way above it. Arguably, incorporating something like that in the climax would even lower it's quality.

The story also works very well with the winged wolf being Bran.

Mind you, I'm not saying George won't take the story in that direction, it's his series and I'm sure it will still be a lot of fun to read no matter what, I'm only saying that we shouldn't view it as a mandatory development. It's not mandatory at all.

R+L=J is a good theory.   But it is just a theory.  I cannot think of a single clue supporting it that might not have another meaning.

Winged wolf as Bran is Jojen's opinion, just as Stannis as TPTWP is Mel's opinion.  Either opinion might be wrong.  Not saying it necessarily is wrong.  But it is plausible.  We have been warned that prophesies are treacherous, so we have cause to question the first interpretations that are handed to us.  In my opinion, what we know of Jojen's vision of the Winged Wolf is limited to the description of the vision itself.

And there could be alternative theories as to how Jon's heritage might be relevant, including theories other than R+L=J.  IMHO, if your theory imagines no relevance to his heritage, then you are probably missing something.

You obviously have your own artistic opinions.  But loosely associating a theory with a trope you don't like is not a powerful argument, I think.

[Bowen Marsh]

On 12/30/2018 at 4:56 PM, hallam said:

“At least one or two readers had put together the extremely subtle and obscure clues that I'd planted in the books and came to the right solution."

This does not sound like confirmation of the common wisdom here.

It looks pretty clear that the show and the books are taking very different tacks in places. Is GRRM really working on Winds of Winter or was it finished some time ago and delayed because the HBO plot is different?

George is holding off until after the show because he needs to have the last word.  That train wreck from HBO should not have the last word.  I don't want whatever DnD made to be my last impression of this great story.

[J. Stargaryen]

I'm pretty sure GRRM has been saying this, or something a lot like it, for years.

There's even the story that he had a minor meltdown way back when (ACoK-ish maybe?) because internet fans had figured out the ending. Supposedly he called his agent or editor or someone like that, and another author happened to witness the receiving end of that call. They posted the story somewhere a few years ago, though I don't recall if it was here or linked from elsewhere. From what I recall, the story seemed to check out at the time, but I cannot vouch for it beyond that. Maybe someone else wants to look into it.

[White Ravens]

3 minutes ago, J. Stargaryen said:

I'm pretty sure GRRM has been saying this, or something a lot like it, for years.

There's even the story that he had a minor meltdown way back when (ACoK-ish maybe?) because internet fans had figured out the ending. Supposedly he called his agent or editor or someone like that, and another author happened to witness the receiving end of that call. They posted the story somewhere a few years ago, though I don't recall if it was here or linked from elsewhere. From what I recall, the story seemed to check out at the time, but I cannot vouch for it beyond that. Maybe someone else wants to look into it.

Cool story, brah.

[J. Stargaryen]

1 minute ago, White Ravens said:

Cool story, brah.

You're welcome, brah.

[The Coconut God]

10 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

R+L=J is a good theory.   But it is just a theory.  I cannot think of a single clue supporting it that might not have another meaning.

I guess you are technically correct, but it's also pretty much the only scenario that could impact the plot in a major way.

My initial argument was that Jon's parentage reveal wouldn't have a significant impact on the plot. This is a lot more likely to be true if his parents were Ned and Wylla, Ned and Ashara, Lyanna and Brandon, etc. That's not to say it wouldn't matter at all (of course it would matter on a personal level, or by bringing Jon a particular ally connected to one of his real parents), but it wouldn't be a game changing twist.

11 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

Winged wolf as Bran is Jojen's opinion, just as Stannis as TPTWP is Mel's opinion.  Either opinion might be wrong.  Not saying it necessarily is wrong.  But it is plausible.  We have been warned that prophesies are treacherous, so we have cause to question the first interpretations that are handed to us.  In my opinion, what we know of Jojen's vision of the Winged Wolf is limited to the description of the vision itself.

While I agree that we should stay open minded towards unlikely theories, I would also warn against forcing a mystery where one isn't needed. We were talking about open story elements that need (or don't need!) to be resolved.

Stannis, for example, needs to fail at fulfilling the Azor Ahai role and "break before he bends" because that has been thematically set up in the series. Alternatively, he could play on that set up by doing the exact opposite and proving his detractors wrong, although that is a lot less likely because it would overshadow more prominent characters such as Dany and Jon... But the point still is that there is a narrative set up here that demands a pay-off.

The winged wolf, on the other hand, already has a satisfying solution, and therefore doesn't demand anything. You can argue that a later twist might provide a different solution, but that doesn't mean you can go around calling it an "unresolved prophecy". Tyrion's parentage isn't an "unresolved mystery" just because tinfoil theories like A+J=T and D+D=T exist.

11 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

And there could be alternative theories as to how Jon's heritage might be relevant, including theories other than R+L=J.  IMHO, if your theory imagines no relevance to his heritage, then you are probably missing something.

His heritage can easily be relevant without being a major plot point.

First of all, this is a huge saga that contains numerous layers of stories, some of them from the past. Lyanna is still a character we care about and she still had a story we are invested in even though she died long before the events in ASoIaF. If nothing else, finding out that R+L=J is still relevant for her story. It's still emotionally satisfying for us to find out that the son she gave her life for grew up to be a great guy and did his best to save some people's lives. Ditto for Ned, and the sacrifices he made to raise Jon. Considering the whole mystery was born from their backstory, the series could certainly get away with it if the reveal is only relevant from that perspective.

Another thing to consider is George's penchant for subverting fantasy tropes. The whole point of this mystery could be to turn the "secret prince" idea on its head. This could be achieved in multiple ways, ranging from Jon actually being Ned's bastard with a peasant, to him being Rhaegar and Lyanna's son but never finding out, or refusing kingship in spite of it, or rejecting his Targaryen heritage because Rhaegar really did rape his mom. If this is the case, the impact on the reader will be more important than the impact on the plot (the latter being more akin to Jon's refusal to accept Winterfell from Stannis, or Tyrion's internal monologues about whores).

If it turns out that Jon rides a dragon, like you suggested earlier, this is just as likely to play out as the big final clue for the reader as it is to follow an explicit reveal. Think about it, what would be cooler? Jon being told that he is Rhaegar's son at some point in the story so that he knows he can ride a dragon when the time comes (even though the Targaryen blood in and of itself didn't really help Quentin), or Jon heroically jumping on a dragon simply because the circumstances demand it, and us knowing that it must be because he has Rhaegar's blood?

Jon's heritage can certainly be relevant without being the centerpiece of a book (or the series).

[HexMachina]

10 hours ago, J. Stargaryen said:

I'm pretty sure GRRM has been saying this, or something a lot like it, for years.

There's even the story that he had a minor meltdown way back when (ACoK-ish maybe?) because internet fans had figured out the ending. Supposedly he called his agent or editor or someone like that, and another author happened to witness the receiving end of that call. They posted the story somewhere a few years ago, though I don't recall if it was here or linked from elsewhere. From what I recall, the story seemed to check out at the time, but I cannot vouch for it beyond that. Maybe someone else wants to look into it.

Not sure if we are thinking of the same thing but I remember I saw or maybe read an interview where he was asked about reading the fans theories. He talked about reading fan forums, which back then I think was called Dragonstone? Anyway he saw people figuring out what he thought of as subtle clues and well hidden secrets and panicked wondering if he should change the story. He ultimately decided not to because then it wouldn’t be a natural story growth, but iirc that is the point in time he largely stopped pursuing online forums. 

I would hunt down the interview or video but im too lazy

[The Coconut God]

15 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

I would hunt down the interview or video but im too lazy

Is it this one?

[HexMachina]

18 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

Is it this one?

I don’t think so but he says more .org less the same there anyway so just further shows that this isn’t some ‘new’ stance.

[The Fattest Leech]

31 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

I don’t think so but he says more .org less the same there anyway so just further shows that this isn’t some ‘new’ stance.

I agree that this isn't a 'new' stance. I have also seen him make similar statements during my own internet rabbit holes, such as this one:

He conceded that internet speculation and conspiracy theories abound about how the story will unravel – but that did not influence him, even though he had been dropping clues along the way. "I've been planting all these clues that the butler did it, then you're halfway through a series and suddenly thousands of people have figured out that the butler did it, and then you say the chambermaid did it? No, you can't do that."

[Ser Gareth]

12 hours ago, J. Stargaryen said:

I'm pretty sure GRRM has been saying this, or something a lot like it, for years.

There's even the story that he had a minor meltdown way back when (ACoK-ish maybe?) because internet fans had figured out the ending. Supposedly he called his agent or editor or someone like that, and another author happened to witness the receiving end of that call. They posted the story somewhere a few years ago, though I don't recall if it was here or linked from elsewhere. From what I recall, the story seemed to check out at the time, but I cannot vouch for it beyond that. Maybe someone else wants to look into it.

May have even been before that.  He said someone had taken the clues and correctly figured out the ending of the series.  I am pretty certain it was after AGOT, but it may have been after ACOK.  It was definitely before ASOS though.

[SirArthur]

2 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

I agree that this isn't a 'new' stance. I have also seen him make similar statements during my own internet rabbit holes, such as this one:

He conceded that internet speculation and conspiracy theories abound about how the story will unravel – but that did not influence him, even though he had been dropping clues along the way. "I've been planting all these clues that the butler did it, then you're halfway through a series and suddenly thousands of people have figured out that the butler did it, and then you say the chambermaid did it? No, you can't do that."

It's a good thing then, he didn't write in the first Dany chapter that the butler did something for someone. Oh wait ... 

I seriously believe the first Dany chapter was a mistake by GRRM.

[The Fattest Leech]

1 minute ago, SirArthur said:

It's a good thing then, he didn't write in the first Dany chapter that the butler did something for someone. Oh wait ... 

I seriously believe the first Dany chapter was a mistake by GRRM.

How so?