If Marston Waters had survived to Aegon’s ascension

[James Steller]

We know how Waters held Aegon the Younger in place as they both watched Rhaenyra eaten alive by Aegon II’s dragon. We know that Aegon hated dragons from them on, and he never forgot Waters’ role in his mother’s death. He tried to promote other knights over Waters as Lord Commander but this was undone by Unwin Peake (which seems purely like spite on Peake’s part, since he stood to gain nothing from Waters’ appointment as Lord Commander). There was also a moment during the siege of the red keep where Waters tried to negotiate with Aegon III and pointed out that when he was a grown man, he and the other Kingsguard would gladly fall on their own swords if he commanded thusly. Of course, Waters met his end when he tried to arrest Mervyn Flowers instead.

My question, meanwhile, is whether Aegon III would have made good on Waters’ poor choice of words. Sure, Aegon would have been viewed as tyrannical if he’d killed a man for doing his sworn duty, but then again, we’re talking about a traumatized teenage boy who probably relives the death of his mother every time he looks at his Kingsguard’s Lord Commander, the same man who actively helped to have her killed. If I was Waters, and the little boy I held in place to make him watch his mom die was about to become my king, I’d either book a fast ship to follow Elissa Farman or give myself a swift death to avoid my new king’s vengeance.

[DominusNovus]

Its hard to get a handle on Marston. He clearly was an ambitious guy, but also managed to find some moral core and decided to serve his king’s interest, despite the emnity between them.  I wonder if Aegon would recognize that. Surely he wouldn’t be ignorant of the fact that Marston died obeying Aegon’s wishes as it was.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, James Steller said:

We know how Waters held Aegon the Younger in place as they both watched Rhaenyra eaten alive by Aegon II’s dragon. We know that Aegon hated dragons from them on, and he never forgot Waters’ role in his mother’s death. He tried to promote other knights over Waters as Lord Commander but this was undone by Unwin Peake (which seems purely like spite on Peake’s part, since he stood to gain nothing from Waters’ appointment as Lord Commander). There was also a moment during the siege of the red keep where Waters tried to negotiate with Aegon III and pointed out that when he was a grown man, he and the other Kingsguard would gladly fall on their own swords if he commanded thusly. Of course, Waters met his end when he tried to arrest Mervyn Flowers instead.

I think Peake had something to gain - and did gain something - when he ensured Marston Waters became Lord Commander of the Kingsguard. We see what he gained later on, when Peake's cronies use Marston in their plots to try to kill Aegon III, Daenaera, and the Rogares.

I've discussed Waters somewhere with @Ran. He seems to be more inclined to see Waters as average guy getting caught up in plots he didn't (completely) understand, and there is something to this. But I'm not really sure why Peake and/or his cronies thought he should be their figurehead as Hand rather than one of their own. Is it really believable he signed off on the arrest of Lord Rowan, etc. just because they told him the man was guilty of crimes without any (good) evidence supporting this? Waters would also have been the guy to authorize the torture of Rowan.

Could be he was just hopelessly naive, but I'm open to the possibility that he knew/suspected more than we will ever know.

1 hour ago, James Steller said:

My question, meanwhile, is whether Aegon III would have made good on Waters’ poor choice of words. Sure, Aegon would have been viewed as tyrannical if he’d killed a man for doing his sworn duty, but then again, we’re talking about a traumatized teenage boy who probably relives the death of his mother every time he looks at his Kingsguard’s Lord Commander, the same man who actively helped to have her killed. If I was Waters, and the little boy I held in place to make him watch his mom die was about to become my king, I’d either book a fast ship to follow Elissa Farman or give myself a swift death to avoid my new king’s vengeance.

I think we can guess what Aegon III would have done to Waters when we learn how he treated Clarice Osgrey and other cronies of Peake's after he took charge. The way he dealt with the regents and Lord Manderly - who he acknowledged served his mother well - does not imply he was in a forgiving mood. And the regents he dismissed were neither Blacks nor Greens. He had no reason to particularly dislike them.

My personal guess is that Waters would have been sent to the Wall had he lived. Aegon III wouldn't have taken his head but he wouldn't have allowed him to stay on his Kingsguard. From his POV Waters was not only complicit in his mother's murder but had been a traitor to the rightful queen since he helped to hide Aegon II.

Jaehaerys I sent all of Maegor's KG to the Wall, too. Marston was the last KG chosen by Aegon II so one assumes Aegon III didn't have to cleanse that order after he had taken the reins of power.

Another interesting question is how Aegon III deals with Munkun. If TWoIaF is not in error claiming that Alford was Grand Maester in 153 AC and Munkun again Grand Maester when Baelor died, then chances are not that bad Aegon III takes a page from his mother's book and takes Munkun's chain and banishes him from court, asking the Citadel for a new Grand Maester. The reason for that seems to be pretty obvious, too - Munkun being complicit in the entire anti-Rogare conspiracy. That Munkun did not send ravens to inform the lords of the Realm what Waters and his guys were doing in the Red Keep is treason - or at least a huge betrayal of trust.

Aegon III would have to be an utter moron to continue work with/trust this guy. Not to mention that Munkun as regent was also actively involved in Peake acquiring more and more power.

[Ran]

2 hours ago, James Steller said:

We know how Waters held Aegon the Younger in place as they both watched Rhaenyra eaten alive by Aegon II’s dragon.

Actually, the account from Gyldayn says it was either Alfred Broome or the Two Toms who held Aegon. Waters is said to have been present. And as I noted previously, it's said that when Broome tried to kill the injured Baela, Waters tore the sword from his hands rather than let her come to harm.

I discuss my views on him a bit more here. 

2 hours ago, James Steller said:

My question, meanwhile, is whether Aegon III would have made good on Waters’ poor choice of words.

I suspect Waters would have done as his king commanded, as he claimed. He really seemed to be absolutely devoted to the Kingsguard, whatever other flaws or errors he made in life.

As to his role in Peake's conspiracies, as I said before, I think he was a puppet, a follower, not a ringleader. He believed what he did was for the good of the king, and it seems clear he genuinely believed Thaddeus Rowan had been part of a conspiracy with the Rogares, given his apparent surprise when it became clear that Rowan had been tortured until broken enough to agree to anything put to him.

[Lord Varys]

8 minutes ago, Ran said:

I suspect Waters would have done as his king commanded, as he claimed. He really seemed to be absolutely devoted to the Kingsguard, whatever other flaws or errors he made in life.

That may be a little too much. But I think we can say the white cloak had a similar effect on him than it had on Osmund Kettleblack. We also don't assume Osmund to actively try kill or harm either Joffrey or Tommen, never mind what he did in the past - or still does independent of his KG duty.

8 minutes ago, Ran said:

As to his role in Peake's conspiracies, as I said before, I think he was a puppet, a follower, not a ringleader. He believed what he did was for the good of the king, and it seems clear he genuinely believed Thaddeus Rowan had been part of a conspiracy with the Rogares, given his apparent surprise when it became clear that Rowan had been tortured until broken enough to agree to anything put to him.

While this may be true, I'd say things are set up in a way for us to never figure it out. The fact that Thaddeus Rowan was arrested and deposed means that Peake's cronies did run the show in the Red Keep - or at least seized power when they arrested Rowan. What was the point in using Waters as a useful idiot if the real power essentially lay with them? Why didn't Tessario claim the Handship? Or Graceford? Or Ser Amaury Peake, Leygood, Long, etc.? Or even Septon Bernard?

As it turned out, it was a mistake of the conspirators to make Waters Hand - were they too stupid to realize that they should better make a guy who knew what was going on the guy in charge? Or did Waters decide to forget what he knew/suspected, jumping on the chance to go follow the road Viserys laid out for him?

We'll never know. I don't think Waters was involved in the original plot to murder Aegon III and Daenaera, but that may be the case for a considerable number of the men and women later punished - some might have known the entire plot, others may have only been drawn into the plot to blame Rowan and the Rogares for it - Waters could certainly have been one of the latter.

But he would have to be an utter moron to not understand that there was no evidence there to justify the deposition and arrest of Lord Rowan or his subsequent torture. Perhaps he only realized that the guys he was working with were also the guys who tried to kill the king and queen when he saw the Rowan show in from of Maegor's?

On the other hand, Waters owed Peake for his position as Lord Commander of the Kingsguard. That may have made him Peake's man to a larger degree than we know.

And as I think I said in the other thread: If I were Waters I'd have really dreaded the moment the broken boy could rule in his own right. Especially after I pulled what I pulled with besieging Maegor's Holdfast there.

This is not a forgiving world, and the Targaryens don't have a reputation of turning the other cheek. Queen Daenaera nearly died in the siege, and even if Aegon III may have been willing to forgive/ignore Waters' allegiances during the Dance, it would have been very difficult to work with a Kingsguard who had attacked the king himself. And the siege of Maegor's was an attack on the king and his family.

In that sense Waters having a change of heart would work pretty well, too. Because suddenly becoming Aegon III's man and saving him was the only way he could hope to save his ass.

[Canon Claude]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In that sense Waters having a change of heart would work pretty well, too. Because suddenly becoming Aegon III's man and saving him was the only way he could hope to save his ass.

I buy this far more than the idea that Waters was a pawn or naive. The way I read the book, Marston Waters is the most cowardly and opportunistic of the conspirators. He's not brave enough to have actual blood on his hands, and he's too guilty to claim innocence. 

And moreover, I have no trouble believing that he stood by and did nothing while Unwin Peake tried to have Aegon killed. Who stands the most to lose when Aegon comes of age? As James pointed out, Waters was Aegon II's man through and through, and from Aegon III's perspective, he's a turncloak only in it for himself, doing nothing when Rhaenyra is given a ghastly death in front of her child. I can believe that Waters also didn't want to be accountable or stain his conscience with doing the deeds, but he was perfectly fine with standing by so Tessario could do the dirty work. Then when he realized that there was no getting away with the anti-Rogare actions, he saw an opportunity to save his skin and turn to Aegon's side before it was too late.

Except, of course, that it was too late. If Waters didn't die while arresting Mervyn Flowers, he would have received zero mercy from Aegon. Aegon didn't care about courtesies or favours. He tore Torrhen Manderly a new one just because he was sick of being overruled. I certainly believe that Aegon would have had Marston Waters executed for his role in the Dance and the conspiracy. No amount of turn-cloaking was going to save him.

[Paxter Redwyne]

19 minutes ago, Canon Claude said:

I can believe that Waters also didn't want to be accountable or stain his conscience with doing the deeds, but he was perfectly fine with standing by so Tessario could do the dirty work.

That was actually Mervyn Flowers work if you speak about Jaehaera. Although given Mervyn's reputation and how he sliced off one ear of Thaddeus' squire for merely trying to defend him I find it highly possible that he killed Jaehaera himself. I don't really understand why Mushroom thought that Mervyn was not able of doing such deed himself.

 

About Marston, it looks that as was mentioned by others in this thread, that he would have to be really naive and trusting person or was simply a scheming craven who turned his cloak as soon as his plot was uncovered. I am not really sure myself what is more likely, but if he really was just really naive about the whole conspiracy, I am not sure why was he chosen as figurehead of the plot. Maybe it was because he was thought to look more reliable than people appointed by Unwin, but there still were other options, even Munkun - who for a time supported their actions, believing that Rogares tried to make a coup.

[Ran]

Right, it was Mervyn Flowers, not Waters. Was Waters a "turncloak"? He was a nobody, but he was never personally sworn to Rhaenyra, so far as we know. He supported Aegon II faithfully, and as I noted he protected Baela when he didn't have to do so. He accepted a pardon and served Aegon III, and he's never implicated in Peake's ugliness directly -- Tessario, Flowers, and others were responsible for murders, attacks on women, etc., but Waters seems to have simply done as he thought he should. The Rogares fell afoul of rivals in Lys and in Westeros, and it seemed plausible there was a coup -- and so Waters went and did as he directed, arresting Roggerio.

Why Waters rather than Munkun? Probably because Waters was not too bright and was wound around Unwin's thumb, so could be relied upon to do as he was told (so Peake thought) whereas Munkun had shown too much independence. But to me, the moment that Waters was described as surprised by Rowan's false testimony, it made it clear that he had genuinely believed Rowan had confessed to being part of a conspiracy, and then realized he had been lied to. He could have simply denied Aegon's command, told him that Rowan was playing some game with his confession, and waited the king out given supplies were low. But he didn't, because it wasn't a matter of the game being up, but that he had realized he was being used by people more canny and subtle than he was.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Canon Claude said:

Except, of course, that it was too late. If Waters didn't die while arresting Mervyn Flowers, he would have received zero mercy from Aegon. Aegon didn't care about courtesies or favours. He tore Torrhen Manderly a new one just because he was sick of being overruled. I certainly believe that Aegon would have had Marston Waters executed for his role in the Dance and the conspiracy. No amount of turn-cloaking was going to save him.

The way Aegon III treated Torrhen Manderly - an actual Black and loyal follower of Queen Rhaenyra - strongly indicates that Marston Waters couldn't have expected to continue as Lord Commander of the Kingsguard - or in the Kingsguard as such.

'A king should have a Hand of his own choosing' - very much so. And a king should have a bodyguard he was sure he could trust, rely upon, and feel comfortable around. Would any of you have kept Marston Waters if you were Aegon III?

In that sense I think it is a given that Waters - and any other remaining Greens in the Kingsguard - would have been forced to go once Aegon III came of age. Either to the block or to the Wall. As it turned out, Aegon III didn't have to do that.

The template to deal with situations like this is given by Jaehaerys I. Those KG in Maegor's Kingsguard who were named by King Aegon and King Aenys were traitors when they chose Maegor over Aegon the Uncrowned, abandoning the true king. Those named by Maegor himself were thugs named by a false king and usurper and could not be trusted for that reason.

Waters may have been loyal to Aegon II but the rightful queen, from the POV of Aegon IIII, was Rhaenyra Targaryen, not Aegon II. Aegon III had no reason to entrust such a man with his own safety and the safety of his family.

It is one thing to forgive a man like Tyland Lannister - who Aegon III didn't really interact with throughout the entire Dance (the man was already in the dungeons when Aegon came to KL) - and quite another suffer the presence of a man who was complicit in the murder of your own mother.

1 hour ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

That was actually Mervyn Flowers work if you speak about Jaehaera. Although given Mervyn's reputation and how he sliced off one ear of Thaddeus' squire for merely trying to defend him I find it highly possible that he killed Jaehaera himself. I don't really understand why Mushroom thought that Mervyn was not able of doing such deed himself.

I think here we get a dose of the 'the Kingsguard cannot possibly kill kings' crap. Even Mushroom may not have been immune to that - and he apparently spends some time with Flowers. Nobody really seems to point the finger at Maegor's KG in public, despite the fact that they are the likeliest suspects if the man was killed.

49 minutes ago, Ran said:

Right, it was Mervyn Flowers, not Waters. Was Waters a "turncloak"? He was a nobody, but he was never personally sworn to Rhaenyra, so far as we know. He supported Aegon II faithfully, and as I noted he protected Baela when he didn't have to do so. He accepted a pardon and served Aegon III, and he's never implicated in Peake's ugliness directly -- Tessario, Flowers, and others were responsible for murders, attacks on women, etc., but Waters seems to have simply done as he thought he should. The Rogares fell afoul of rivals in Lys and in Westeros, and it seemed plausible there was a coup -- and so Waters went and did as he directed, arresting Roggerio.

Most of that fits greatly with the idea that Waters was not inherently/openly cruel and foul. But that tells us nothing about how he felt inside, especially no in his relation to the this boy king who was soon coming of age.

Waters would have been the one to arrest the Rogares and Lord Rowan. He was the guy the gang made the Hand. If we were just a figurehead/pawn then somebody must have told him what to do. Who could have that been? Lord Unwin wasn't in the city, he couldn't provide him with convincing evidence against Rowan and the Rogares? Clarice Osgrey? The others all seem to have been pawns themselves.

It seems clear that Lord Unwin was the mastermind behind the whole thing, but there must have been guys in the castle who actually saw to it that the plan was executed.

49 minutes ago, Ran said:

Why Waters rather than Munkun? Probably because Waters was not too bright and was wound around Unwin's thumb, so could be relied upon to do as he was told (so Peake thought) whereas Munkun had shown too much independence. But to me, the moment that Waters was described as surprised by Rowan's false testimony, it made it clear that he had genuinely believed Rowan had confessed to being part of a conspiracy, and then realized he had been lied to. He could have simply denied Aegon's command, told him that Rowan was playing some game with his confession, and waited the king out given supplies were low. But he didn't, because it wasn't a matter of the game being up, but that he had realized he was being used by people more canny and subtle than he was.

That moment is also the moment when the entire plan collapses.

What seems to have been Lord Unwin's endgame?

To kill Aegon III and his queen, to replace Aegon III with Viserys II, and blame Larra Rogare and his brothers for the poisoning plot. King Viserys II would then be married to Unwin's daughter.

Part one didn't work - but Aegon III and Daenaera remained dead guys walking. The situation in Lys and the Vale provided Peake's guys when the pretext to move against Lord Rowan and deal with the Rogares before King Aegon III was safely poisoned in another attempt.

The next step after the taking of Maegor's Holdfast would have been the murder of Aegon III.

But with Viserys not buying the Rogare story at all the entire plan was falling apart. Making him King Viserys II would create exactly the same kind of problem the Peake gang was facing with Aegon III coming of age - possibly even greater a problem considering that the boy was very much taken with Lady Larra.

If Viserys and Aegon III had bought the Rowan testimony they could have sold that story to the Realm, without them buying it they could only get away with everything by actually killing the two boys. And that Waters was apparently not willing to do. At least not openly. He would have to be even more deluded that he would be to buy Aegon III would want him in his KG if he believed Viserys II would happily suffer a man at his court who tried to kill his lady wife. And that was the entire objective of the siege. To get a hold on Larra to hand her over to the torturers.

It is certainly also possible that Waters needed Viserys to see through some of the plots, but the idea that he seriously believed the things the Peake gang would have then have to tell is very hard to swallow. He must have known some things. And he must have suspected even more.

Not only in relation to this plot but also in relation to the death of Queen Jaehaera. Waters wasn't directly involved in any of that, but the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard spends a lot of time with his sworn brothers. How likely is it that Waters didn't question Flowers what had happened during his watch?

[Paxter Redwyne]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I think here we get a dose of the 'the Kingsguard cannot possibly kill kings' crap. Even Mushroom may not have been immune to that - and he apparently spends some time with Flowers. Nobody really seems to point the finger at Maegor's KG in public, despite the fact that they are the likeliest suspects if the man was killed.

It seems that reputation of white cloaks have indeed made people think better of them than they are actually. I think there is also a chance that Maegor was killed by Elinor Costayne, but even if Kingsguard haven't personally murdered him, they probably helped with his murder or knew about the plot.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

That moment is also the moment when the entire plan collapses.

What seems to have been Lord Unwin's endgame?

To kill Aegon III and his queen, to replace Aegon III with Viserys II, and blame Larra Rogare and his brothers for the poisoning plot. King Viserys II would then be married to Unwin's daughter.

Part one didn't work - but Aegon III and Daenaera remained dead guys walking. The situation in Lys and the Vale provided Peake's guys when the pretext to move against Lord Rowan and deal with the Rogares before King Aegon III was safely poisoned in another attempt.

The next step after the taking of Maegor's Holdfast would have been the murder of Aegon III.

But with Viserys not buying the Rogare story at all the entire plan was falling apart. Making him King Viserys II would create exactly the same kind of problem the Peake gang was facing with Aegon III coming of age - possibly even greater a problem considering that the boy was very much taken with Lady Larra.

If Viserys and Aegon III had bought the Rowan testimony they could have sold that story to the Realm, without them buying it they could only get away with everything by actually killing the two boys. And that Waters was apparently not willing to do. At least not openly. He would have to be even more deluded that he would be to buy Aegon III would want him in his KG if he believed Viserys II would happily suffer a man at his court who tried to kill his lady wife. And that was the entire objective of the siege. To get a hold on Larra to hand her over to the torturers.

It is certainly also possible that Waters needed Viserys to see through some of the plots, but the idea that he seriously believed the things the Peake gang would have then have to tell is very hard to swallow. He must have known some things. And he must have suspected even more.

Not only in relation to this plot but also in relation to the death of Queen Jaehaera. Waters wasn't directly involved in any of that, but the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard spends a lot of time with his sworn brothers. How likely is it that Waters didn't question Flowers what had happened during his watch?

Unwin's whole plot after failure of poisoning Daenaera or both her and Aegon III seems really convoluted. Was he planning to marry Myrielle to Aegon or Viserys? Was he planning to come back to King's Landing and assume office of Hand of the King again? What was his plan after the King would reach majority? To keep him as puppet and rule in his name similar to Bloodraven effectively reigning when Aerys I was busy reading books? And if he wanted to marry Myrielle to Viserys, what would he do with little Aegon IV? He surely would preffer hiw own grandson as heir to the throne.

With all his failed plots it's actually really impressive how he managed to stay "relatively" clean.

[The hairy bear]

I think that Unwin Peake named Marston as Lord Commander precisely because he knew that Aegon felt a strong aversion towards him.

Unwin was surely convinced that a bastard born of dubious reputation would always look after his own interests. And Waters had reason to believe that once Aegon III reached his majority, he would be sent to the Wall. For this reason, Unwin could expect that Waters would always side with the Hand and the Regents against the King.

But besides him being a good candidate for Unwin's interest, I think he was at the time the most senior member of the Kingsguard. So his name would be easily acceptable proposal by the other regents.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not only in relation to this plot but also in relation to the death of Queen Jaehaera. Waters wasn't directly involved in any of that, but the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard spends a lot of time with his sworn brothers. How likely is it that Waters didn't question Flowers what had happened during his watch?

I think it's likely that he did, and I think that it's likely that during the siege of Maegor's Holdfast he realized that he may be guilty of it. Marston Waters had been named by Aegon II, and the suspicion that his innocent daughter had been murdered may be what convinced him to abandon the Peake gang.

[Paxter Redwyne]

1 hour ago, The hairy bear said:

But besides him being a good candidate for Unwin's interest, I think he was at the time the most senior member of the Kingsguard. So his name would be easily acceptable proposal by the other regents.

Marston wasn't really old person. He was named Kingsguard by Aegon II only few years ago. If Mervyn was similar age to Unwin(we don't know), I think he would be the oldest one.

1 hour ago, The hairy bear said:

I think it's likely that he did, and I think that it's likely that during the siege of Maegor's Holdfast he realized that he may be guilty of it. Marston Waters had been named by Aegon II, and the suspicion that his innocent daughter had been murdered may be what convinced him to abandon the Peake gang.

That would be a bit weird and late reflection for him and I am not sure how would it influence Marston decisions in that moment.

[The hairy bear]

23 minutes ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

Marston wasn't really old person. He was named Kingsguard by Aegon II only few years ago. If Mervyn was similar age to Unwin(we don't know), I think he would be the oldest one.

I didn't mean senior in terms of age, but in terms of years of service in the Kingsguard. He was probably the last survivor of Aegon's old Kingsguard: William Fell and two of his sworn brothers had been just killed. Regis Groves had also been killed in Harrenhal some time ago. Gelys Belgrave had been beheaded in the hour of the Wolf...

ETA: Amaury Peake and Mervin Flowers joined the KG at the same time Waters was promoted to Lord Commander. I don't recall any precedent of someone directly joining the KG as Lord Commander. I doubt that this could be possible.

[Paxter Redwyne]

1 hour ago, The hairy bear said:

ETA: Amaury Peake and Mervin Flowers joined the KG at the same time Waters was promoted to Lord Commander. I don't recall any precedent of someone directly joining the KG as Lord Commander. I doubt that this could be possible.

Gyles Morrigen

[The hairy bear]

1 minute ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

Gyles Morrigen

But Gyles Morrigen became LC in a time where the entire KG was renewed, so there was no other member with more antiquity than him (or any antiquity at all).

[Paxter Redwyne]

39 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

But Gyles Morrigen became LC in a time where the entire KG was renewed, so there was no other member with more antiquity than him (or any antiquity at all).

Yeah, I know, heh. I just couldn't hold back myself to not mention him.