Wyman Manderly warships

[Free Northman Reborn]

2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I don't exactly know what "sufficient galleys to take Dragonstone and King's Landing both" means in terms of numbers.

Stannis attacked King's Landing with 200 ships, not counting the Lyseni, which would have probably been more than sufficient had it not been for Tyrion and Renly's ghost. At the time Lord Wyman made the statement, Stannis would have had those same ships to defend Dragonstone, which would suggest Wyman needed a fleet of similar size. It may have been an exaggeration or simply a figure of speech on Lord Wyman's behalf, but even if it wasn't he is building ships at a rate of 40+ in over a year, which means he is four or five years from reaching such a target, and hence he will never reach it. Time is the crucial factor in any attempt to further expand his fleet, and I just don't see White Harbor having enough time to increase the number of ships significantly.

I don't think the numbers matter so much though. I think the point is that Lord Wyman, and his allies, have never stopped working towards northern independence under Rodd's heir.

No one is sailing south to try and take King's Landing by sea. Cersei and Aegon will be fighting over it for the next book or so, and after that Daenerys will come and burn the victor out to take it for herself. Why waste any Northmen or Northern ships to try and squeeze a brief occupation of King's Landing into the already cramped timeline inbetween all of the above?

Nope, those ships will be for the use of the new King in the North to escort food transports from the Free Cities and Gulltown, and to move troops by sea when land based travel becomes more difficult. And maybe to transport a force into the Riverlands for the Great Council/meeting with Daenerys to forge the Grand Alliance against the Others in the last book.

Not to squander men needlessly squabbling over King's Landing.

[three-eyed monkey]

9 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

No one is sailing south to try and take King's Landing by sea. Cersei and Aegon will be fighting over it for the next book or so, and after that Daenerys will come and burn the victor out to take it for herself. Why waste any Northmen or Northern ships to try and squeeze a brief occupation of King's Landing into the already cramped timeline inbetween all of the above?

Nope, those ships will be for the use of the new King in the North to escort food transports from the Free Cities and Gulltown, and to move troops by sea when land based travel becomes more difficult. And maybe to transport a force into the Riverlands for the Great Council/meeting with Daenerys to forge the Grand Alliance against the Others in the last book.

Not to squander men needlessly squabbling over King's Landing.

I think you misread me. I didn't say anyone was sailing to try take King's Landing by sea. What you quoted was my reply to the question how many ships did Wyman plan to build, based on what Wyman said and the rate he was building at, where I concluded it didn't matter how many he planned to build as he doesn't have time to build many more.

In my first post I said the purpose of the fleet is the defense of an independent north from sea. I'm not opposed to the other uses you mention as they are pretty much along the same line.

[Free Northman Reborn]

9 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I think you misread me. I didn't say anyone was sailing to try take King's Landing by sea. What you quoted was my reply to the question how many ships did Wyman plan to build, based on what Wyman said and the rate he was building at, where I concluded it didn't matter how many he planned to build as he doesn't have time to build many more.

In my first post I said the purpose of the fleet is the defense of an independent north from sea. I'm not opposed to the other uses you mention as they are pretty much along the same line.

Ah, sorry. As for how many there will be - I certainly think it can grow well beyond the current 46. There is plenty of time still while Euron, Aegon and Daenerys squabble over the South. They could build another 46 in that time.

[Dorian Martell's son]

On 1/4/2019 at 1:23 PM, Gerold the Great said:

When Davos visited White Harbor he noticed 23 war galleys and later Wyman claims to have as many more hidden up in White Knife. 

 

What is he going to do with those ships? 

 

I know they are for war but can he actually battle Redwyne fleet with hope of success? 

They were built to defend the north against the crown  

[Gertrude]

13 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

No one is sailing south to try and take King's Landing by sea. Cersei and Aegon will be fighting over it for the next book or so, and after that Daenerys will come and burn the victor out to take it for herself. Why waste any Northmen or Northern ships to try and squeeze a brief occupation of King's Landing into the already cramped timeline inbetween all of the above?

I don't think that was Manderly's plan, but the situation will change and the ships were specifically mentioned. I don't see them being of any use far from White Harbor. That kind of limits it to maaaybe as far south as Dorne, but most likely not. That means Hardhome, Essos, or KL/Dragonstone. Depending on alliances and how things shift, I can see them playing a part in taking KL at the end game after the others are finished killing each other. If Stannis survives, he could do some damage with those ships - he's got skills. Manderly did say he'd back Stannis if Davos could deliver Rickon. 

[TPTWP Timett]

What about Braavos where they can build a ship a day? Could they be persuaded to build for the North in exchange for lumber the North has plenty and they have none? I'm not sure if it's possible because I'm not sure the Braavos would arm another country regardless the price.

[Clegane'sPup]

On 1/4/2019 at 4:23 PM, Gerold the Great said:

When Davos visited White Harbor he noticed 23 war galleys and later Wyman claims to have as many more hidden up in White Knife. 

 

What is he going to do with those ships? 

 

I know they are for war but can he actually battle Redwyne fleet with hope of success? 

No the galleys canna defeat the Redwyne fleet. The galleys in my opinion were not built for that.

If I remember correctly the Iron Throne ships where in Stannis' command. Dragonstone sits in the way of Kings Landing.  While Stannis had command of the fleet. Any ship trying to get to Kings Landing first had to get past Stannis and the IT fleet.

There has been a battle (remember the chain) where the IT ships were burning due to wild fire. Remember Stannis lost as in --- the ships burned.

Cersei had some boat wights build new ships. Those ships left with the Waters guy. Rumor is he set himself up as a pirate king.

Kings Landing and the Iron Throne have no ships.

Yada yada. Vic took part of the Iron Born fleet to seek the dragon Queen. Euron has another part of the Ironborn fleet harrying the coast and islands round Oldtown. Redwyne fleet and Loras are trying to get the left overs of Dragonstone to kowtow. Another up in the air situation.

Confused enough?

As has been mentioned there are different types of ships --- barges, galleys with the ambiguous insinuation of being dromons; long ships, cog's and swan ships to name a few.

Manderly tells Davos that "his crews are river-men or fisher folk." Davos asks:

A Dance with Dragons - Davos IV     Why would you need a smuggler? You have ships."   "Ships," Lord Wyman agreed, "but my crews are rivermen, or fisherfolk who have never sailed beyond the Bite. For this I must have a man who's sailed in darker waters and knows how to slip past dangers, unseen and unmolested."/

Why does Manderly have ships that his people seem unable to man or command as mention above?

If I go back to a previous chapter when Davos first set foot in White Harbor this is part of what Davos sees.

A Dance with Dragons - Davos II    When he reached the top, he turned to look behind him. From here he could see down into the harbors. Both of them. Behind the jetty wall, the inner harbor was crowded with war galleys. Davos counted twenty-three. Lord Wyman was a fat man, but not an idle one, it seemed./

Then there is the chit chat betwixt Manderly and Davos. Notice the "more than a year" as in when Rodrick told Umber and Manderly to work together. Time moves slowly in martin's tale.

Dance with Dragons - Davos IV    "I have been building warships for more than a year. Some you saw, but there are as many more hidden up the White Knife. Even with the losses I have suffered, I still command more heavy horse than any other lord north of the Neck. My walls are strong, and my vaults are full of silver. Oldcastle and Widow's Watch will take their lead from me. My bannermen include a dozen petty lords and a hundred landed knights. I can deliver King Stannis the allegiance of all the lands east of the White Knife, from Widow's Watch and Ramsgate to the Sheepshead Hills and the headwaters of the Broken Branch. All this I pledge to do if you will meet my price."/

I would suggest/speculate that Davos saw what he saw and that Manderly may be exaggerating.  AND the 23 galleys are defense and offense.

Why would I say that?

Stannis had the Iron Throne fleet at Dragonstone. Sea invaders had to get past that to attack Kings Landing.

Perhaps the rational behind Manderly and Umber building ships is sea invaders need to get past the Three Sisters with their tricks to get to White Harbor and into the White Knife before getting to WF.

BTW did you think you would get bigger and better answers by placing the post in two forums? The other forum being WOIAF?

 

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

On 1/5/2019 at 11:42 AM, Free Northman Reborn said:

Ah, sorry. As for how many there will be - I certainly think it can grow well beyond the current 46. There is plenty of time still while Euron, Aegon and Daenerys squabble over the South. They could build another 46 in that time.

I don't know if they'll have enough time to double the number of war galleys, but I could definitely see them exceeding the Royal Navy Stannis had access to as Lord of Dragonstone.

[White Ravens]

On 1/5/2019 at 2:34 PM, Dorian Martell's son said:

They were built to defend the north against the crown  

I agree.  Of course they will likely end up serving a different purpose but only GRRM knows what that may be. 

[Loose Bolt]

If just 1 ship has crew about 200 men then those 46 ships would need 9200 men to sail them. So I suspect that lack of available trained men will be major reason why that navy cannot grow any larger.

[Ralphis Baratheon]

Might use those ships to ferry a army of Skagosi and their unicorns to storm his enemies.

[Ser Rhoddry of The Hill]

You don't need 200 sailors to crew a ship. A galley would require something like 8 seamen 12 marines and 180 oars. You don't need any skill to pull an oar, do you?

[John Suburbs]

Even a small navy is better than no navy at all. The north has just declared its independence, Wyman has a harbor (the only significant one on either coast), and the only viable way to attack the north is by sea. They'd be foolish not to start building a navy, even if it doesn't become the most powerful force at sea overnight.

[White Ravens]

Defending White Harbor is reason enough to build a fleet.  It is the only city in the north and it guards the mouth of the White Knife.  Any enemy able to get ships past White Harbor would be able to sale up the river to it's rapids thereby getting troops closer to Winterfell.  Some Manderly prior to Wayman should have built ships a long time ago.

[Loose Bolt]

2 hours ago, Ser Rhoddry of The Hill said:

You don't need 200 sailors to crew a ship. A galley would require something like 8 seamen 12 marines and 180 oars. You don't need any skill to pull an oar, do you?

Estimated population of WH is about 50.000 and that includes women, children and another people who cannot row. So I suspect only max 20k of them are healthy adult males. It means that if crew of 1 ship is really 200 then Manderlys could man 100 ships. But then all those males in White Harbor cannot do anything else as long they are pulling oars of those ships :)

Totally another thing is that somebody would have to pay wages of those rowers unless house Manderly became slavers and even then those crews would have to eat something. So I suspect that WH cannot afford any more warships that they already have.

In fact I wonder from where they had found enough people to crew those 46 warships and how house M had not already gone broke.

 

[Ivan Tsarevich]

Editing to remove.

[PrinceoftheTides]

Actually, as we saw in Brandon's POVs, the ships were built just for defending the coastline from the wildlings, they were not originally planned as a defence against the royal fleet so I imagine they are more likely to be comparable to the ironborn longboats than to the major warhips with more decks that the major seapowers use.

Probably Manderly went over the original commitments and created bigger ships, but still I don't think they are at the same level of Cersei's dromonds (for instance).

Actually in Davos arriving at White Harbour POV, I think a comparison was made between some royal ships Lionstar and the galleys that were in the harbour.

 

However, since the ships are there, it is quite sure that they will have a role in the future, according to the Checov's gun theory (:-D)

 

For the rest I know that logical considerations are not really realiable here, since the author's will reign supreme in fiction (if GRRM wants a fleet out of nothing and in no time, it could spawn and would), but technically shipyards capabilities determine the size of the ships, especially bigger ones, and it is unlikely that White Harbour, that does not host a military fleet for centuries had mantained a costly infrastructure with no pratical use. We can also consider that the knowledge to built ships may differ from model to model, so technically it would be again strange that people that only build fishing vessels and (maybe) smaller patrol boats could in the next day start building major warships.

 

[A Ghost of Someone]

Wyman needs to have the Boltons removed from Winterfell and a Stark, his Stark (he hopes and prob for his Grandaughter in the future) Rickon to be installed in Winterfell. He is letting Stannis wear down the Bolton/Frey alliance and is himself probably going to die but his heir is back and in White Harbor with instructions no doubt. Those War Galleys can ferry men too if need be, up the White Knife and they might be able to go all the way to Winterfell, if the river is not frozen all together.  The Skagosi may not be necessarily holding reckon Hostage but may be protecting him until he is needed to return. Now is the time and some of those Cannibals may come with them. The ships were written into the story to be used, not just sit there. 

[Aegon VII]

On 1/4/2019 at 2:23 PM, Gerold the Great said:

When Davos visited White Harbor he noticed 23 war galleys and later Wyman claims to have as many more hidden up in White Knife. 

 

What is he going to do with those ships? 

 

I know they are for war but can he actually battle Redwyne fleet with hope of success? 

That’s jon’s Navy you’re talking about