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NFL 2019: Wild Card, Mitches!


Jace, Extat

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I did not expect this.  I mean, I guess I could have envisioned the Chargers just ... Chargering all over the place.  I could see Rivers just imploding.  Also, the Chargers D played right into the pats' hands; Brady kills Zone defenses and the multi-DB packages were ideal for running-back-heavy play-calling.  I get all this. 

But the Chargers were just ... terrible.  For starters, the Pats owned the Line of scrimmage; allowing Michele to get 5.6 yards a carry and well over 120 yards carrying; White had 15 catches; the O-line were able to block, clear open spaces on screens and handle an under-sized Charger D.  Meanwhile, the Pats D held the Chargers running game to 19 yards on 10 carries; Rivers was gun-shy the whole game and reduced to whining to the ref's about phantom non-calls.  Almost all of Rivers' stats came in garbage time (which was sometimes late in the 3rd quarter).  

Pats out-coached the Chargers which seems predictable given that Belichick had more post-season coaching games than Anthony Lynn has total games.  Also, home field came up big as the Chargers had multiple delay--of-game penalties and generally were out of since all day.  This was in some ways the most surprising drubbing of the playoffs.  

Oh, and Brady was an utter force.  34 on 44 for over 340 yards passing, a TD and over 100 passer rating.  Completely stone cold out there.  

In the regular and post season, Pats are something like 66-1 when they have a 100 yard rusher (10-0 in the playoffs).  

Oh, and I think the Chiefs are still going to win, even though Maholmes' tendency to throw across his body can't be sustainable.  

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Apparently the Saints get their own rules.

For 31 other teams an offensive penalty with a running clock and no timeouts under 2 minutes results in a 10 second runoff and the clock still rolling after the ref blows the whistle.

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Just now, Jace, Basilissa said:

The amount of fools who picked the Chargers is legitimately shocking.

I'm taking Bill Belichick with a week off to gameplan over pretty much anyone.  As expected, he fucking picked the Chargers apart on both ends of the ball. 

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Just now, briantw said:

I'm taking Bill Belichick with a week off to gameplan over pretty much anyone.  As expected, he fucking picked the Chargers apart on both ends of the ball. 

Are you suggesting you've seen a football game in the last 2 decades?

More than can be said for most apparently.

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I was already walking into the bathroom because I thought there was no way they'd be stupid enough to run a play before the 2 minute warning.

What the actual fuck was Pederson thinking? There should have been the LITERAL OPPOSITE of urgency there.

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It's a good idea to pass there. You dont lose any ability to drain time because the 2 minute warning will happen whether its incomplete or not, meaning you can open the playbook up some. I don't know about the rushing it thing - I just saw it on Twitter- but passing at the 2 minute warning is in general excellent to do. 

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I cannot put it all on one play or player when you are up by 14 and just stop scoring. The Eagles offense struggle all year mainly due to the running game not being like it was in '17. It caught up to them this game. 

It was a good run, still had a chance in the end, and the Champions are dethroned.

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26 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

It's a good idea to pass there. You dont lose any ability to drain time because the 2 minute warning will happen whether its incomplete or not, meaning you can open the playbook up some. I don't know about the rushing it thing - I just saw it on Twitter- but passing at the 2 minute warning is in general excellent to do. 

All passing does there is waste a down. The Eagles should have been actively draining the clock, which includes not rushing to the line to get extra plays off. There was no need. Absolutely no need to do that. Picking up a chunk play there is counterproductive, because it drastically shrinks your ability to keep the clock running without scoring after the 2 minute warning. 

The Eagles had a timeout. They should have run a play for a first AFTER the warning so that either the Saints burn a timeout or there's 80 seconds left when they snap the ball next. 

Philly was playing against the clock. Even 35 seconds and no timeouts would have been plenty of time for Brees to get them back in FG range.

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I thought Rams looked like the better team vs Saints this weekend. Vegas has Saints -3.5, which you could read as equal teams with home field advantage favoring the Saints. But normally, they wouldn’t tag the half point on if that was true. 

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A friend who makes very good money over the years on football gambling told me decades ago that an NFL team playing its third straight road game will almost never cover.  The NFL almost never schedules such games as a result.  Adding in the Chargers inexplicable decision to fly back to the West Coast after the Baltimore game, I'm surprised it was even that close.  At some point fatigue sets in and you look brain dead - as they did.

Were I a New England supporter, I'd not read too much in to that game.  The Chargers style (zone, seldom more than 4 pass rushers) is Brady's wheelhouse.  And any QB could have picked apart a defense when he had enough time to read write a novel.

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21 minutes ago, Bronn Stone said:

A friend who makes very good money over the years on football gambling told me decades ago that an NFL team playing its third straight road game will almost never cover.  The NFL almost never schedules such games as a result.  Adding in the Chargers inexplicable decision to fly back to the West Coast after the Baltimore game, I'm surprised it was even that close.  At some point fatigue sets in and you look brain dead - as they did.

Were I a New England supporter, I'd not read too much in to that game.  The Chargers style (zone, seldom more than 4 pass rushers) is Brady's wheelhouse.  And any QB could have picked apart a defense when he had enough time to read write a novel.

The problem with this is that like you said, three regular season games on the road is indeed very uncommon.  But any wild card team that wants to make the super bowl needs to win (and cover, obvs) three road games.  And several teams have done that, so it hardly seems impossible that the Chargers could beat a beatable Patriots squad.  But they completely no-showed in that first half, particularly on defense.  Every single play it felt like there was a guy comfortably open 5 yards down the field for Brady to hit.  The Chargers got completely outcoached and outexecuted.  

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23 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The problem with this is that like you said, three regular season games on the road is indeed very uncommon.  But any wild card team that wants to make the super bowl needs to win (and cover, obvs) three road games. And several teams have done that, so it hardly seems impossible that the Chargers could beat a beatable Patriots squad. 

There is a difference between "three road games" and "three straight trips to different time zones with the final two cross country"

Since the 2002 expansion (previous Wild Card games could be at home), three teams have made the Super Bowl.

2005 Steelers - games at Cincy , at Indy, at Denver - two of those barely count as road trips.
2007 Giants - at Tampa, at Dallas, at Green Bay
2010 Packers  - at Philly, at Atlanta, at Chicago

None of them had anything like back-to-back cross country trips.

3 out of 64 is not the sort of number that inspires "should have",  It's more of an indication of my point than a counter.

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