Jump to content
Jace, Basilissa

NFL 2019: Wild Card, Mitches!

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Not really.  Home teams win approximately 57% of the time in the regular season and 65% of the time in the playoffs (because most of the time it's the better team playing at home).  If you take that 65% and apply it 3 times, a wild card team winning three road games should happen 4.4% of the time.  And we divide 3 by 64 and we get 4.7%, which is exactly what we'd expect.

You may be mixing cause and effect here.  Road teams likely do worse in the playoffs because of the disappearance of the protections of back-to-back (-to back) games. 

From your linked article " NFL home teams gain almost 5 extra points of win probability in the playoffs — again, after controlling for the fact that better teams tend to get more postseason home games. "

Eight percent better chance before controlling for team quality, five percent after.  I'd say this makes my point more than it refutes it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Bronn Stone said:

You may be mixing cause and effect here.  Road teams likely do worse in the playoffs because of the disappearance of the protections of back-to-back (-to back) games. 

From your linked article " NFL home teams gain almost 5 extra points of win probability in the playoffs — again, after controlling for the fact that better teams tend to get more postseason home games. "

Eight percent better chance before controlling for team quality, five percent after.  I'd say this makes my point more than it refutes it.

I'm not really sure how that (bolded) statement backs up your point.  I am taking issue with the idea that it is back to back to back road games that are particularly difficult to win.  I'm saying that instead, it is hard to win road games in the playoffs period, regardless of how many road games you've played recently. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's either magic voodoo of the playoffs or repeat games.  You say magic, I say repeats. I think we're done here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Bronn Stone said:

It's either magic voodoo of the playoffs or repeat games.  You say magic, I say repeats. I think we're done here.

What?  How is what I'm describing magic voodoo?  I feel like it's opposite of that.  You know that in the playoffs you're guaranteed to get both team's best game, and in that situation, the better team wins more often.

So I went and looked at the actual playoff results because I was genuinely curious.  Here's the wild card team playoff results for 2002-2019.

Wild Card Round: 32 - 40 = 44% win percentage

Divisional Round:  9-23 = 28% win percentage

Championship Round:  3-6 = 33% win percentage

That looks like prettymuch what I would expect, the results in the wild card round are significantly better than the later rounds because they're playing a lesser opponent, rather than one of the top two teams in the conference.  The difference between the divisional round and championship round is small, with the wild card teams winning slightly more often in the championship round than the divisional games.  It's too small a sample size to say anything definitive, but it really calls into question the idea that it is the back to back to back road games that is particularly a problem.  There's no evidence of that. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the Chargers going with a 7DB set against the Patriots with 22 personnel is kind of a major factor. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Cas Stark said:

Why didn't the Browns hire Gregg Williams?

Because hiring a hotshot offensive coordinator as your head coach is the cool thing to do right now.  Kitchens had been doing a good job as offensive coordinator, and as a result he would have probably gotten HC offers elsewhere if the Browns didn't hire him.  So they fired Williams because he was seen as more replaceable than Kitchens.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Because hiring a hotshot offensive coordinator as your head coach is the cool thing to do right now.  Kitchens had been doing a good job as offensive coordinator, and as a result he would have probably gotten HC offers elsewhere if the Browns didn't hire him.  So they fired Williams because he was seen as more replaceable than Kitchens.

Or, to say it another way, after years, even decades, of failure, they stumbled into a HQ who had good chemistry with their new stud QB, and the rest of the team, and manged to get this group of perennial losers to start winning, and said, eh, fuck it, let's make a change.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

Or, to say it another way, after years, even decades, of failure, they stumbled into a HQ who had good chemistry with their new stud QB, and the rest of the team, and manged to get this group of perennial losers to start winning, and said, eh, fuck it, let's make a change.  

I think change was inevitable.  Having Williams as HC and Kitchens as OC might have been preferable, but it runs the (very real) risk that Kitchens gets hired away.  They considered Williams more replaceable than Kitchens, and I can't really blame them for that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

Why didn't the Browns hire Gregg Williams?

Because he's a defensive minded coach and the Browns had a shitty defense?  The main reason the Browns turned around is because of Freddie Kitchens.  You know...the guy they just hired to be their head coach.  He was the one who was calling plays when the offense went from one of the worst five in the league to one of the best five.  He's the one who had the chemistry with Baker Mayfield and made him go from looking like a promising rookie the first eight games to a top ten NFL QB the last eight.  He's the one who schemed so that Baker took by far the fewest QB hits/sacks in the league over the final eight games of the season despite a mediocre at best O-line.  

Really no reason to hire Gregg Williams and then lose Freddie Kitchens a year from now when he inevitably got another head coach offer when you can just cut out the middle man and hire Kitchens now.  Williams should be thanking Kitchens he even got a damn interview, because the offense looked so good and Mayfield so exciting during the back half of the season that no one really noticed the defense was still shit. 

Edited by briantw

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

No one else wanted Freddie Kitchens. He had no interviews.

Yeah, but is that true a year from now if the Browns continue to look great on offense next season?  I doubt it.  And I don't think the team wanted to hitch their horse to Gregg Williams, and I can't say I really blame them.  Kitchens was the guy who turned that team around, not Gregg.  Gregg did his part and helped bring some stability to the team, mostly by just not being Hue Jackson, but as mentioned Kitchens is the guy who turned them from a bottom five to top five offense despite having exactly the same team as the guy before him.

Baker's numbers before and after Kitchens took over are equally ridiculous.  His completion percentage jumped up almost fifteen percent. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, briantw said:

Yeah, but is that true a year from now if the Browns continue to look great on offense next season?  I doubt it.  And I don't think the team wanted to hitch their horse to Gregg Williams, and I can't say I really blame them.  Kitchens was the guy who turned that team around, not Gregg.  Gregg did his part and helped bring some stability to the team, mostly by just not being Hue Jackson, but as mentioned Kitchens is the guy who turned them from a bottom five to top five offense despite having exactly the same team as the guy before him.

Baker's numbers before and after Kitchens took over are equally ridiculous.  His completion percentage jumped up almost fifteen percent. 

Baker Mayfield - Hue Jackson fixed that offense. When their other finalist was Kevin goddamn Stefanski I'm going to feel confident that they had no idea what the fuck they were doing and cocked this up already.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh, Colts made the surprisingly proactive decision to fire Dave Deguelimaragano. The guy the Patriots had to drag Dante Scarnecci out of retirement to replace after they let him ruin their O-line? That guy was one of the McDaniels hires who had signed before the Superbowl.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Baker Mayfield - Hue Jackson fixed that offense. When their other finalist was Kevin goddamn Stefanski I'm going to feel confident that they had no idea what the fuck they were doing and cocked this up already.

Baker Mayfield sure as hell wasn't fixing the offense the first eight games (well, five and a half).  Yeah, he looked good, but for a rookie.  With Kitchens calling plays, he was one of the better QBs in the league.  Arguably top five over the last eight games, and definitely top ten.  

 

 

 

I'm also pretty sure the Browns scored touchdowns on 19 out of 21 trips to the red zone under Kitchens, and one of the two red zone trips where they didn't score was when Baker took a knee at the five to run out the clock against the Bengals.  They absolutely would have scored there if they had wanted to.

Edited by briantw

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pasting twitter messages by any means other than copying and pasting the text is both ugly and annoying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

No one else wanted Freddie Kitchens. He had no interviews.

Only because he is fat and hasn't been linked to Mcvay. If he had known Mcvays cousins sisters nieces brother in law then he definitely would have been interviewed for every open job, especially Arizonas. :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, dbunting said:

Only because he is fat and hasn't been linked to Mcvay. If he had known Mcvays cousins sisters nieces brother in law then he definitely would have been interviewed for every open job, especially Arizonas. :P

John Dorsey prefers more of an Andy Reid type. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So Darrell Bevell to the Lions, and Kubiack to the Vikings. This really sucks for the Bengals having to wait out Zac Taylor while he’s still in the playoffs. I have no idea how he’s going to build an entire staff with what’s left out there. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×