U.S. Politics: Phantom of the Emergency

[DMC]

Uh, guys, you do realize Whitaker has overseen the Mueller investigation since being appointed acting AG (he refused to recuse himself despite the recommendation of DOJ's ethics department), right?  Rosenstein stepping down has long been expected, well deserved, and means jack shit.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

Just now, DMC said:

Uh, guys, you do realize Whitaker has overseen the Mueller investigation since being appointed acting AG (he refused to recuse himself despite the recommendation of DOJ's ethics department), right?  Rosenstein stepping down has long been expected, well deserved, and means jack shit.

Yes, yes I do realize this.  I also can understand how an acting someone might act differently than a confirmed someone, but I don't think that changes the analysis as to what happens with the investigation.

[Mexal]

3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

So I was thinking about how Trump or America ever gets out of this shutdown nonsense.  And something that I haven't seen written anywhere, but it seems like it might be a solution would just be for Democrats and a few Republicans to pass a budget, Trump vetoes it (No Wall!), and then Congress just overrides the veto.  Yes, that would require some Republican Senators and House members to "go against" Trump, but since it allows Trump to get out of this mess without backing down, they're actually doing him a favor.  It seems like finding the votes in the Senate shouldn't be that hard; all of the Republicans who just won election will never again be on the ballot with Trump, and this is a long way off for 2022 Republicans.  The House might be a little harder, but with Democrats already controlling the chamber it wouldn't get as much attention when some Republicans vote to reopen the Govt.

It has the added benefit for them that Trump doesn't declare a national emergency and effectively neuter the legislative branch. 

The real sticking point is McConnell, since he'd have to go along with this plan and he's up for reelection in 2020.  If he went with this plan and Trump wanted to destroy McConnell in the primary, he could probably do it.  But there's a good chance McConnell already needs Trump in the primary, and this would only make McConnell more subservient to Trump (an obvious win for the WH). 

This only works with McConnell and he has said many times that he refuses to bring a bill to the floor of the Senate that Trump won't sign. It's pretty ridiculous given the bill the House wants to pass already passed the Senate 100-0 and is now a non-starter but welcome to politics in Trump era where the Legislature only legislates on what Trump will sign, not on what is the right thing to do.

So yea, this isn't going to happen unless Senate Republicans start putting a ton of pressure on McConnell and given Trump and McConnell's press thing today, don't see that happening anytime soon.

[Kalbear]

Yeah, the plan 'making McConnell do the right thing' seems to have a somewhat obvious flaw in the plan. 

[Maithanet]

But this isn't McConnell doing the right thing becuase it's the right thing.  It's McConnell doing what is necessary to get Trump out of the corner he's backed himself into.  This allows Trump to save face without resorting to destroying the legislative branch, which McConnell definitely cares about.  If McConnell was fine with the President replacing the Senate with a doormat, he would have nuked the filibuster on the first day of 2017, then Trump could have had his wall easily. 

[DMC]

14 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

I also can understand how an acting someone might act differently than a confirmed someone, but I don't think that changes the analysis as to what happens with the investigation.

Yep if Whitaker did (or I suppose does) do anything regarding the Mueller investigation there would have been plenty of legal challenges based both on his status as acting AG and even whether his appointment as acting AG is legal.  But that all would have been rather irrelevant to whether Rosenstein was there or not.

8 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

But this isn't McConnell doing the right thing becuase it's the right thing.  It's McConnell doing what is necessary to get Trump out of the corner he's backed himself into.

Yeah McConnell will "do the right thing" when/if there is enough public displeasure directed towards Trump and GOP MCs that he views it as in his interest to do something.  I think it's clear we're not there yet, but definitely getting closer.

[Darzin]

Regarding the discussion about Trumps re-election prospects. It's true Republican thought they could nominate any mook to beat Obama because they regarded him as a failed president. Two points on that, first many of the scandals they thought would sink Obama never really resonated outside the republican infotainment bubble. second Obama had four million less votes in 2012 compared to 2008. If Trump loses four million votes there is no way he can win. Plus I figure a lot of democrats will be less complacent then in 2016, and Florida passed their law allowing felons to vote. Those factor make 2020 look pretty good for democrats to my mind.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

I think he plays a good hand of poker.  I think more broadly (i) he doesn't have to prove anything to anybody, (ii) he's confirmable - I mean he's done the job before, (iii) crucially, he knows how the DOJ is set up internally and how everything "works" and (iv) he's well aware of the current and future scrutiny on his role.  How he plays his hand is an entirely different question.  But to somehow think that he is not capable of independent action or will definitively act as a rubber stamp is too crude an analysis.  I do not doubt that many (most) of the participants in this forum will disagree with a lot (all) of the things he does, but I also think that he's playing chess, not checkers here, and possibly 3D chess.  He will not be ineffective whatever he does, and I would guess he will be more inclined towards laser surgery rather than a sledgehammer.  So, you know, I don't personally see a Mueller removal, because that's a sledgehammer, and a checkers move.  What he does do (whatever it is) may well be way more effective in terms of defending the executive branch.

But his actions would not be independent or proper if he is already focused on defending the Executive Branch.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

But his actions would not be independent or proper if he is already focused on defending the Executive Branch.

Never said they would be proper.

[Trebla]

So a new talking point is that we need the wall because the the border has become Mad Max: Fury Road.

You mean the migrants have better vehicles than we do? "MEDIOCRE!!!!"

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Never said they would be proper.

Idk how well you know him, but in your opinion is he more of a boy scout or someone who plays in the gray areas of the law?

[Martell Spy]

Quote

 

Gov. Jay Inslee and Democratic lawmakers Tuesday announced proposed legislation for a new “public option” health-care plan under Washington’s health-insurance exchange.

The proposal, which Inslee said is the first step toward universal health care, is geared in part to help stabilize the exchange, which has wrestled with double-digit premium increases and attempts by Republicans in Congress and President Donald Trump to dismantle the Affordable Care Act.

“We are proposing to the state Legislature that we have a public option that is available throughout the state of Washington so that we can increase the ability to move forward on the road to universal health care in the state of Washington,” said the governor, who is considering a run for president in 2020.

Called the Cascade Care legislation, the plan would be offered in every county.

 

Inslee proposes ‘public option’ health-insurance plan for Washington

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/inslee-proposes-public-option-health-insurance-plan-for-washington/

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I've been meaning to address this, so I cast summon @Fragile Bird

 

BIRD!,

You need to answer for your country! After Trump, Pence, SHS and Sec. Nielsen came out and lied about the figures at the Southern border, the nerds and FAKE NEWS started to do some research and they found that only six suspected terrorists immigrants entered the border illegally. They also found that 41 suspected terrorists immigrants entered the country illegally from the Northern border. THAT'S NEARLY SEVEN TIMES AS MANY!!! And I come from a Northern border state, and have heard the stories of people smuggling drugs in from Canada. THEY'RE BRINGING DRUGS AND CRIME INTO OUR COUNTRY, BIRD!! And worse, the report from The Guardian indicates illegal immigration from Canada into the U.S. is surging. THEY SAID SURGING!!! We're not safe anymore from you syrup suckers, although I believe some of you are good people. We might need to look into shutting that whole thing down.

How dare your lot bring treachery upon us, BIRD!! Answers are demanded! 

[Mudguard]

4 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Trump THINKS he knows though. Trump hired Barr after firing Comey, firing Sessions, and getting pissed at Rosenstein and firing a whole lot of other people - because they wouldn't be personally loyal to Trump. He has personally gone to the acting AG and bitched about an ongoing investigation INTO HIS OWN PERSON. 

To me, this suggests the following about Trump and Barr: either Barr has given Trump his loyalty honestly, and will be protecting Trump as best he can and following his orders as best he can, or Barr lied to Trump and will be doing something on his own knowing Trump is going to get more and more pissed at him for it. 

I don't know which of the two is more likely, honestly, but I think the idea that Barr's going into this openly stating to Trump that he will keep Mueller around and not get rid of it is obviously wrong on its face, because Trump would never accept someone like that as his AG. Trump openly wants an AG that deflects issues from Trump; that is his first and biggest goal. Whether Barr will do that or not, I don't know - but Trump almost certainly THINKS that he got that. And given what happens to people in the admin, I'm inclined to bet on that being the case as well. 

I find it extremely unlikely that Barr plead loyalty to Trump or has lied to Trump about his intentions with respect to Mueller.  I doubt Trump has asked Barr directly about how he would handle Mueller, given the scrutiny Trump is currently under and the likelihood that Barr will likely be asked about this during the confirmation process. 

The best Trump can do right now is pick people that have made public statements that suggest that they are opposed to the Mueller investigation, which is the case with both the acting AG and Barr.  However, as far as we know, Whitaker has been hands off on Mueller, even though his previous statements were strongly anti-Mueller.  I think it's likely Barr will be the same.  There's no way they can shut down the investigation or even interfere with the investigation without making the Trump obstruction case even stronger.  

All they can really do is try and suppress Mueller's report when it is eventually handed off to Rosenstein, Whitaker or Barr.  I think they'll try and redact a lot of it as confidential information, but I doubt that the overall conclusions can be covered up.  I'm not sure what Congress can do to make redacted portions of the report public though.

[Martell Spy]

Trump says he has an 'absolute right' to declare a national emergency for his border wall

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/09/trump-national-emergency-border-wall-1092147

Quote

 

President Donald Trump claimed on Wednesday that he has the "absolute right" to declare a national emergency to force the construction of a border wall, but said he would still prefer to reach a wall-funding deal with lawmakers.

Speaking with reporters at the White House during a signing for anti-human trafficking legislation, Trump said he would take a more extreme action if he and Democrats fail to work out an agreement that includes more than $5 billion for physical barriers on the border with Mexico.

"My threshold [for declaring a national emergency] will be if I can't make a deal with people that are unreasonable," Trump said.

 

 

[Mudguard]

31 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I've been meaning to address this, so I cast summon @Fragile Bird

 

BIRD!,

You need to answer for your country! After Trump, Pence, SHS and Sec. Nielsen came out and lied about the figures at the Southern border, the nerds and FAKE NEWS started to do some research and they found that only six suspected terrorists immigrants entered the border illegally. They also found that 41 suspected terrorists immigrants entered the country illegally from the Northern border. THAT'S NEARLY SEVEN TIMES AS MANY!!! And I come from a Northern border state, and have heard the stories of people smuggling drugs in from Canada. THEY'RE BRINGING DRUGS AND CRIME INTO OUR COUNTRY, BIRD!! And worse, the report from The Guardian indicates illegal immigration from Canada into the U.S. is surging. THEY SAID SURGING!!! We're not safe anymore from you syrup suckers, although I believe some of you are good people. We might need to look into shutting that whole thing down.

How dare your lot bring treachery upon us, BIRD!! Answers are demanded! 

The evidence is clear.  Forget the wall in the south.  We need a wall in the north!

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Yep, the Canadians are no longer sending you their Trebeks, Sutherlands or Gretzkys. Today they are sending you their Christensens, Reynolds, and some are even Crosbys eh (I think I was required by law to insert an eh there)

[Kalbear]

27 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

I find it extremely unlikely that Barr plead loyalty to Trump or has lied to Trump about his intentions with respect to Mueller.  I doubt Trump has asked Barr directly about how he would handle Mueller, given the scrutiny Trump is currently under and the likelihood that Barr will likely be asked about this during the confirmation process. 

Barr will still get confirmed though, so I don't see it as an issue. What, are Republicans going to say no to him now? Come on. 

Trump almost certainly asked, though he may have tried to be a bit more coy than direct like he was with Comey. 

27 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

The best Trump can do right now is pick people that have made public statements that suggest that they are opposed to the Mueller investigation, which is the case with both the acting AG and Barr.  However, as far as we know, Whitaker has been hands off on Mueller, even though his previous statements were strongly anti-Mueller.  I think it's likely Barr will be the same.  There's no way they can shut down the investigation or even interfere with the investigation without making the Trump obstruction case even stronger.  

All of these arguments could have been made when Trump fired Comey, and yet Trump fired Comey. The notion that he's playing some rational game should have left long ago. Others in his orbit probably realize this, and are trying to curb his worst impulses, but the idea that he'll do the 'right' thing or even the wise thing here? Come on, man. 

27 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

 All they can really do is try and suppress Mueller's report when it is eventually handed off to Rosenstein, Whitaker or Barr.  I think they'll try and redact a lot of it as confidential information, but I doubt that the overall conclusions can be covered up.  I'm not sure what Congress can do to make redacted portions of the report public though.

Again, we'll see. 

[Fragile Bird]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

I've been meaning to address this, so I cast summon @Fragile Bird

 

BIRD!,

You need to answer for your country! After Trump, Pence, SHS and Sec. Nielsen came out and lied about the figures at the Southern border, the nerds and FAKE NEWS started to do some research and they found that only six suspected terrorists immigrants entered the border illegally. They also found that 41 suspected terrorists immigrants entered the country illegally from the Northern border. THAT'S NEARLY SEVEN TIMES AS MANY!!! And I come from a Northern border state, and have heard the stories of people smuggling drugs in from Canada. THEY'RE BRINGING DRUGS AND CRIME INTO OUR COUNTRY, BIRD!! And worse, the report from The Guardian indicates illegal immigration from Canada into the U.S. is surging. THEY SAID SURGING!!! We're not safe anymore from you syrup suckers, although I believe some of you are good people. We might need to look into shutting that whole thing down.

How dare your lot bring treachery upon us, BIRD!! Answers are demanded! 

Ya, well, go ahead and build a wall. Cuz like the Mexicans, we paid for it through the bastard child of NAFTA. Not to mention continuing tariffs on steel and aluminum. Lots of people here believe we should put up a giant privacy hedge to keep you mothers on your side of the border too.

I see that number was people stopped at the border, or, probably, pre-clearance at Canadian airports. It doesn’t say how many were people with names similar to people on the no-fly list. There’s this 9 year old who’s parents would really like to take to Disney World but the kid can’t get on an airplane that crosses US air space.

Also, 271 people crossed illegally from Quebec? Have you any idea how many thousands and thousands have crossed into Canada illegally from the US because they are terrified of Trump? Shit, last year two dumb idiots from Africa crossed south of Winnipeg in the middle of winter and lost their fingers and toes to frostbite. They got accepted as immigrants and now we will be paying their health care for the rest of their lives too! Damn you, Trump!

[Gertrude]

So you agree - we need a 700 foot wall of ice to separate Canada and the USA. Partly to keep your filthy terrorists out and partly to keep dumb-ass Americans from leeching your health care. Win-win!

Northern border agents need their own uniform, maybe something in a nice, basic black.