U.S. Politics: Phantom of the Emergency

[Jace, Extat]

Just now, Maithanet said:

So you're laughing about a notion I expressed which was true, but may become false in the future?  How naive of me. 

I'm bored. Gimme a break.

I'm also sober, I blame that as well.

[Fez]

Pelosi sent a letter to Trump to reschedule the State of the Union in light of the shutdown.

So far the media is framing this as "asking," but I believe this is actually "telling" (since the President comes at the invitation of the Speaker). https://www.speaker.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Letter-to-President-Trump-SOTU.pdf

[Maithanet]

So one interesting thing that's happening is virtually all of the prospective Democratic candidates are going on NPR to reach potential voters.  I'm enjoying listening to what they have to say, what issues they're emphasizing and how well they come across.  Today was Sherrod Brown, who struck me as very unimpressive.  In his five minute interview, he said something about restoring the "dignity of work" at least twenty times.  I know that's the message he's trying to push, but you gotta have more than just repeating one line over and over again.

In contrast, Corey Booker gives a good interview.  I don't care for his cozy-ness with Wall Street, but he talks a good talk. 

[IheartIheartTesla]

I have to admit, I had my misgivings about Pelosi, but in terms of this shutdown she has outplayed Trump. Having a pliant Congress has helped him thus far, but its the first time he is getting pushback and its glorious.

Now I still have some issues with the way centrist Democrats pursue policy, but this is politics. And in terms of political maneuvering she appears to be an expert.  If the SoTU does happen she should just roll her eyes each time Trump says something stupid.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

This is positive, but who knows if it will be lasting:

Quote

CNN)During the longest government shutdown in US history, President Donald Trump has been losing support among those who may be his strongest supporters -- white Americans who don't have college degrees.

Among this group, only 45% said they approved of the job Trump is doing as President, according to a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS. That is the lowest level of support among this subgroup by 1 percentage point in CNN's surveys and a dip from a poll conducted in early December, before the partial shutdown, when 54% of whites without college degrees approved of his job as President and 39% disapproved.

 

The dip is notable since among whites who hold college degrees, Trump's ratings are largely unchanged in the last month and remain sharply negative -- 64% disapprove and 32% approve.

 

This trend is backed up by a new Quinnipiac poll released Tuesday. Approval for the President remained somewhat stable between its mid-December poll and now among whites without college degrees (down from 56% to 53%), but disapproval increased from 37% to 43%. That is going from a net 19% positive approval to a net 10% for Trump, a 9-point loss.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/15/politics/white-noncollege-shutdown-polling/index.html

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Fez said:

Pelosi sent a letter to Trump to reschedule the State of the Union in light of the shutdown.

So far the media is framing this as "asking," but I believe this is actually "telling" (since the President comes at the invitation of the Speaker). https://www.speaker.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Letter-to-President-Trump-SOTU.pdf

Well, Pelosi already invited him basically immediately upon being sworn in as Speaker.  Seems like both basic common decency and prudent politics to ask him to agree to delay it, rather than disinvite him and then "tell" him.

9 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

This is positive, but who knows if it will be lasting:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/15/politics/white-noncollege-shutdown-polling/index.html

Good to see the Quinnipiac poll replicates the trend, but I cited the original poll on Sunday.  Keep up!

[DMC]

PEW has a new poll out on the shutdown.  Almost in response to @IheartIheartTesla query yesterday, they measured the approval of how both Trump and the Congressional GOP is handling the shutdown.  Trump is at 61-36 disapprove, while the GOP Congress is at 60-36 disapprove, so, virtually no difference in the overall numbers.  However, while 53 "strongly" disapprove of Trump's handling, only 40% strongly disapprove of GOP Congress.  OTOH, 23% strongly approve of Trump's handling while only 12% strongly approve of the GOP Congress', so this just seems to reflect the fact respondents unsurprisingly have stronger feelings on Trump than the GOP Congress.

Another interesting item the poll included was whether making concessions to end the shutdown was acceptable based on how the respondent feels about funding the wall.  Among those that oppose expanding the wall, only 11% view it as acceptable to include any funding for the wall.  Among those the favor expanding the wall, 27% view it as acceptable to not include funding for the border wall.

[Fragile Bird]

Since this thread has the word Emergency in it, I guess it’s fair to talk about hospitals, right?

Rand Paul has a crazy neighbor, you may recall, who he is suing because of a physical attack on Paul. Now it has been revealed Paul needs hernia surgery (as revealed in court filings) and I ask you, where do you think he’s going for the surgery?

Canada. 

Isn’t this the ‘slavery’ system Paul has attacked so often? 

Mind you, to be fair, he’s going to one of the few private hospitals in this country, the Shouldice Clinic, world-renowned for their hernia surgery. Friends of mine have also gone there. 

But it’s damn funny!

[IheartIheartTesla]

No, no need to be fair to Rand Paul. It shows how private hospitals (and world class, from the description) can co-exist alongside a UHC system. Rich, or at least, well to do people like him will always do fine in almost any system of health care so he shouldn't be opposing policies that would help others not as fortunate. He deserves all the mockery we can muster. 

[Fez]

Hakeem Jeffries being a bit more blunt than Pelosi; Hoyer was too, though not to this extent.

 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

Anyone want to take a break from our regularly scheduled shut down coverage and discuss PG&E's Ch. 11 filing?  

Because this is a Thing That Is Going To Happen.  They are rate-regulated, which is interesting.  I'm not sure their structure.  When TXU/EFH went in, it was just the competitive side.  The regulated side was in a bankruptcy remote entity, Oncor (Oncor's 80% ish parent filed).  I think based on press coverage that this might be different.  The TXU/EFH deal still needed PUC of Texas approval for the regulated side ownership change, and it caused chaos from a deal perspective, but electricity delivery wasn't impacted at all.  I'm guessing that this will be a huge $hitshow with the California equivalent.  

[Kalbear]

Oh, Pelosi. You're once again showing how women in power are loved, because you are fucking killing it. Her giving permission to Trump to do it from the oval office offhandedly is precisely the kind of sick burn that will work. Nice job. 

https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1085610482743037952

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, Kalbear said:

Oh, Pelosi. You're once again showing how women in power are loved, because you are fucking killing it. Her giving permission to Trump to do it from the oval office offhandedly is precisely the kind of sick burn that will work. Nice job. 

https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1085610482743037952

Or deliver it in writing.  Hah! 

[Red Tiger]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DxDdKgPVsAA2KUR.jpg:large

[James Arryn]

It’ll probably backfire because Democrat, but I think it’s brilliant. It’s taking away what he does all this for in the first place but can’t admit to, his need for attention and adulation. 

Also, she and Schumer seem to have overtly decided to take a parental tone with him, which given his age is very eloquent without being overtly offensive, and it’s working. 

[maarsen]

1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

No, no need to be fair to Rand Paul. It shows how private hospitals (and world class, from the description) can co-exist alongside a UHC system. Rich, or at least, well to do people like him will always do fine in almost any system of health care so he shouldn't be opposing policies that would help others not as fortunate. He deserves all the mockery we can muster. 

Shouldice Hospital is a private hospital that only does hernias. That is how they can be the best at doing one thing.

[Fragile Bird]

3 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Anyone want to take a break from our regularly scheduled shut down coverage and discuss PG&E's Ch. 11 filing?  

Because this is a Thing That Is Going To Happen.  They are rate-regulated, which is interesting.  I'm not sure their structure.  When TXU/EFH went in, it was just the competitive side.  The regulated side was in a bankruptcy remote entity, Oncor (Oncor's 80% ish parent filed).  I think based on press coverage that this might be different.  The TXU/EFH deal still needed PUC of Texas approval for the regulated side ownership change, and it caused chaos from a deal perspective, but electricity delivery wasn't impacted at all.  I'm guessing that this will be a huge $hitshow with the California equivalent.  

I meant to post about this. Pretty shocking that it got to this point (I mean, that they couldn’t do things better and prevent fires). When the shares first started to fall I was hoping all the elderly people who hold their shares, and I assume, bonds, got the hell out. But I know many didn't and got burned again. Pretty sad story all round.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

I meant to post about this. Pretty shocking that it got to this point (I mean, that they couldn’t do things better and prevent fires). When the shares first started to fall I was hoping all the elderly people who hold their shares, and I assume, bonds, got the hell out. But I know many didn't and got burned again. Pretty sad story all round.

I think it is pretty complicated.  Regulated utilities are weird.  On the one hand they are public companies, with private investors.  On the other hand, they have only a certain amount of profit that they can have each year because rates are set by the PUC, and my understanding is that they have to get capex approved as part of the ratemaking process (because a certain level of capex gets passed along to ratepayers in rates), and so are not particularly nimble.  I think we are really going to have to dig into how much of this has to do with too much leverage, how much has to do with not enough approved capex, how much has to do with a lack of appropriate government oversight, and how much has to do with just sheer incompetence.  I'm guessing there is a lot of blame to go around in each category (especially the last).  

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Here's a really interesting article positing that it's almost better for Trump to be a Russian agent. The alternative, tthe author argues, might actually be worse:

https://www.wired.com/story/president-trump-mueller-russia-agent-putin/

[Mexal]

@DMC thought you might enjoy this.