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LucionLannister

Is House Martell underestimated?

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I feel like they're more powerful than people give them credit for. I have a few points.

1. Military Strength

I mean obviously they can't raise Reach or Westerlands numbers, but they seem to be able to raise at least 10,000 in a short period of time. That's how many men joined Prince Rhaeger during Robert's Rebellion, and given how short that war was it had to have been in a pretty short period of time. GRRM has also said that Dorne was not overly enthusiastic about being involved, so they probably sent as few men as possible. I think they may be able to raise more men than people give them credit for.

2. Economics

I know they don't have the fabled gold of the Westerlands or harvests of the Reach, but I think we maybe overplay their desertness. They can grow some crops (to be addressed in 3). More importantly, they seem to grow exotic or luxury fruits like lemons and oranges, which probably fetch higher prices than grain. They also have a fairly productive wine industry. The Redwynes are incredibly influential based just on their wealth from wine; I know Dornish wine isn't as popular, but it seems to do very well. And in "A World of Ice and Fire" we get a map of Dorne and it shows at 3 towns on the Greenblood (Vaith, Godsgrace, Plankytown), in addition to the Shadow City beneath Sunspear. That suggest they're able to produce enough goods and wealth to necessitate 4 towns. In addition, we know the Yronwoods in the mountains have a fair number of silver mines and there could be other, smaller ones. 

3. Agriculture.

Yes, a large part of central Dorne is desert. But the Greenblood is described as the heart of Dorne, able to produce even in winter. There are also three rivers in the Red Mountains; the Torrentine, one by Yronwood, and one by Wyl. The Yronwoods lands are described as fertile, and the Yronwood kings counted among their titles "King of the Greenbelt". That implies that the Red Mountains may be somewhere fertile, and able to support Dorne's population somewhat independently. 

4. Location

Given the location of the Plankytown (one of the last stops before going through the pirate-filled Stepstones, or reversly, before sailing along the inhospitable coast of southern Dorne), its crazy that it hasn't grown into a city. It's prime real estate for merchants sailing to and from Lannisport and Oldtown to refill their food and water.

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Yes, Dorne has all of those things. But not to the same Degree as The Reach or Westerlands or Riverlands. Comparatively speaking, Dorne comes up short.

Geroge gave the Dornish stealth and cunning and a nice cluster of mountains to aid in defending their borders. And there's nothing to really take from them, other than these lemons and oranges you speak of... I can't see any of the other kingdoms going to war over fruit when their coin will suffice.

Doran plays his hand they way he does because he can't field and supply an invasion. He has to use subterfuge. He even has to lie to his own family to protect the one weapon he has: secrecy. Elsewise, he would of sprung his forces during the chaos of tWoFK. 

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14 hours ago, Quoth the raven, said:

Underestimated?  I don't think so.  A mostly desert kingdom that doesn't have petroleum is handicapped.  

So was Egypt, but b4 rise of Romans it was local superpower.

It was actually breadbasket for Rome and all wheat was produced in very narrow area around Nile.

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While not officially confirmed, I've seen many people postulate that a vast network of underground tunnels exists beneath Dorne, stretching across most of the land. Evidence pointing towards this includes Aegon, Visenya and Rhaenys encountering many empty strongholds and castles during the First Dornish War, as well as the fact that people are even able to traverse the worst parts of the deserts of Dorne.

We certainly can't be sure of such a thing, but some kind of secret network beneath Dorne could be vastly useful if/when Doran calls his banners gives the signal for dragon or war.

One has to wonder just what an Iron Throne ordered attack on Dorne would look like in 300AC - with all the political turmoil going on North of the Dornish Marches, what military forces would be assembled for a potential attack on Nymeria's Lands?

The Stormlanders could well be the most likely candidate, but it seems they might have their hands full with Young Aegon and the GC.

Would the Reach willingly send, say, 10k men to invade Dorne? I'm not sure. While they certainly have the numbers and naval infrastructure to launch an attack on one of the Dornish costal areas, Reach Lord Mace Tyrell is somewhat predisposed with his apparent forthcoming battle with Connigton and co. Mace's daughter and Queen Cersei's feud may also deter him from moving his "cyvasse pieces" away from his own lands and kin.

The other powerful "breadbasket" Lords also seem too busy to launch an attack on Dorne - The majority of the famous Redwyne naval forces are about to engage Euron Greyjoy in some kind of skirmish, and look likely to suffer heavy casualties.

The Hightowers seem to be preoccupied with the Iron Borne, as well as the fact that Queen Margaery is Lord Hightower's granddaughter, which, coupled with the rather shitty job Cersei and her people have done of ruling the realm, might further dissuade Oldtown from agreeing to field the warriors for a Dornish invasion on Cersei's behalf.

That leaves the Westerlands, Vale and Riverlands, none of whom (in the current political climate, anyway) seem likely to send mass forces south of the Red Mountains, either by land or by sea.

Edited by Leo of House Cartel

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7 hours ago, Leo of House Cartel said:

While not officially confirmed, I've seen many people postulate that a vast network of underground tunnels exists beneath Dorne, stretching across most of the land. Evidence pointing towards this includes Aegon, Visenya and Rhaenys encountering many empty strongholds and castles during the First Dornish War, as well as the fact that people are even able to traverse the worst parts of the deserts of Dorne.

We certainly can't be sure of such a thing, but some kind of secret network beneath Dorne could be vastly useful if/when Doran calls his banners.

One has to wonder just what an Iron Throne ordered attack on Dorne would look like in 300AC - with all the political turmoil going on North of the Dornish Marches, what military forces would be assembled for a potential attack on Nymeria's Lands?

The Stormlanders could well be the most likely candidate, but it seems they might have their hands full with Young Aegon and the GC.

Would the Reach willingly send, say, 10k men to invade Dorne? I'm not sure. While they certainly have the numbers and naval infrastructure to launch an attack on one of the Dornish costal areas, Reach Lord Mace Tyrell is somewhat predisposed with his apparent forthcoming battle with Connigton and co. Mace's daughter and Queen Cersei's feud may also deter him from moving his "cyvasse pieces" away from his own lands and kin.

The other powerful "breadbasket" Lords also seem too busy to launch an attack on Dorne - The majority of the famous Redwyne naval forces are about to engage Euron Greyjoy in some kind of skirmish, and look likely to suffer heavy casualties.

The Hightowers seem to be preoccupied with the Iron Borne, as well as the fact that Queen Margaery is Lord Hightower's granddaughter, which, coupled with the rather shitty job Cersei and her people have done of ruling the realm, might further dissuade Oldtown from agreeing to field the warriors for a Dornish invasion on Cersei's behalf.

That leaves the Westerlands, Vale and Riverlands, none of whom (in the current political climate, anyway) seem likely to send mass forces south of the Red Mountains, either by land or by sea.

Doran already called his banners and has two armies ready to march

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2 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

Doran already called his banners and has two armies ready to march

Poor phrasing on my part .

What I meant was when Doran gives the signal to deploy his forces - "dragon or war".

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On 1/11/2019 at 7:02 PM, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Doran himself admits that they aren't as powerful as some think they are. 

I think so.  War with the Lannisters mean the destruction of Dorne.  That's why he was careful to keep his Targaryen Restoration plan a secret.  

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20 hours ago, Annalee said:

I think so.  War with the Lannisters mean the destruction of Dorne.  That's why he was careful to keep his Targaryen Restoration plan a secret.  

 

I think this may have been true when Tywin was alive. He commanded the respect of his bannermen and was a gifted tactician. He wouldn't make the mistake of marching an army into the desert to die of thirst or attempt to secure Dorne as a permanent conquest. But with Tywin dead, I am not sure the Westerlands are a region to fear. They have lost a lot of men during the WOF5K.

Jaime would take command of the Westerlands' forces you would assume, if they were ordered mobilized by the Iron Throne, and while he is a very able military man, I don't the the Dornish would give him open battle and any chance to win a potential war by one smashing victory (aka The Trident or Redgrass Field). 

I think Dorne could survive a war with the Westerlands by doing what they've always done (guerrilla warfare) and just outlast the enemy forces. The Dornish have been waiting for the situation to present itself where they can enact revenge upon the Lannisters, but they need the stars to align properly and most important, they need the right allies. They don't have the numbers or resources to openly go to war with the Iron Throne (which is being mostly propped up by the Lannisters) unless they ally with Aegon or Daenerys. 

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Dorans plan is awesome if he keeps waiting, Tywin and Kevin are dead, Cersie will kill herself because she made to many enemies to count, Jamie will probably die doing something heroic, and Tommon and Myrcella are destined to die sooooooo in hindsight sitting back doing nothing was the best move lol. Devan Lannister is still kicking around sure but he is innocent in the crimes against Dorans family. 

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