UK politics: The tale of an old (Ber)crow who flew down from the cuckoo's nest...

[Maithanet]

I saw a 3 second clip of a pro-Brexit rally, and it was like 95% men.  Is there a significant gender gap in terms of Brexit attitudes?  I did a quick google search, but I couldn't find exit polling that broke down results by gender, it was all by region. 

[Heartofice]

31 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I saw a 3 second clip of a pro-Brexit rally, and it was like 95% men.  Is there a significant gender gap in terms of Brexit attitudes?  I did a quick google search, but I couldn't find exit polling that broke down results by gender, it was all by region. 

Nope. 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/567922/distribution-of-eu-referendum-votes-by-age-and-gender-uk/

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/06/13/how-britain-voted-2017-general-election

Were you hoping it was something to blame men for?

[Maithanet]

10 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Were you hoping it was something to blame men for?

At least I can still blame them for being more likely to show up to a protest.

[Chaircat Meow]

Ayes 202 Noes 432 Govt defeated by 230

[Chaircat Meow]

Corbyn has put down the no-confidence motion.

[Heartofice]

2 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Ayes 202 Noes 432 Govt defeated by 230

Pretty extreme result.

More interesting is the tabling of a vote of no confidence. May could well go. I suspect she will, the massiveness of that majority being what it is.

 

That she hasn't actually resigned is maybe just as surprising.

[williamjm]

8 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Pretty extreme result.

More interesting is the tabling of a vote of no confidence. May could well go. I suspect she will, the massiveness of that majority being what it is.

That she hasn't actually resigned is maybe just as surprising.

118 of her own MPs voted against her on the biggest possible issue, it's hard to see how she has any authority left now.

I suspect they may well still regain confidence in her for a short period of time tomorrow, but beyond that I'm struggling to see how she can move forward.

[Heartofice]

3 minutes ago, williamjm said:

118 of her own MPs voted against her on the biggest possible issue, it's hard to see how she has any authority left now.

I suspect they may well still regain confidence in her for a short period of time tomorrow, but beyond that I'm struggling to see how she can move forward.

It does also mean that it was such an overwhelmingly bad defeat that there is no way she can go back to the EU to ask for some small tweaks to her deal. I've got no idea what any possible next steps for her could be if she could even survive a no confidence vote.

[Chaircat Meow]

2 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

It does also mean that it was such an overwhelmingly bad defeat that there is no way she can go back to the EU to ask for some small tweaks to her deal. I've got no idea what any possible next steps for her could be if she could even survive a no confidence vote.

The Tories are more than likely to survive the confidence vote. The DUP will not vote for Corbyn now the Treaty has been rejected. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

9 hours ago, mormont said:

Immediately, May's Plan B is simply to present Plan A again (with minor amendments) in the hope that this time the 'it's this or nothing' narrative works.

Given the result that looks not very credible. That might have worked if she had lost the vote by <100 votes. But this deal was rejected by a 2:1 margin. That deal is as dead a Chequers.

So where to go is a really good question.

[williamjm]

2 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

The Tories are more than likely to survive the confidence vote. The DUP will not vote for Corbyn now the Treaty has been rejected. 

They have now confirmed that they will back her tomorrow, not that there was ever much doubt about that.

[Chaircat Meow]

2 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Given the result that looks not very credible. That might have worked if she had lost the vote by <100 votes. But this deal was rejected by a 2:1 margin. That deal is as dead a Chequers.

So where to go is a really good question.

Kick the can down the road. Ask for an extension for article 50. Piss away the extra time. Ask for another extension until you get to the stage where you just revoke until we can get 'things sorted out.' Never get things sorted out. Cover in terror at the wave of shit that hits you at the next general election when Nigel Farage struts into the House of Commons with 100 MPs at his back. Hope most of them will forget to turn up, get suspended, turn up at the wrong address, punch each other … It will go on and on. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

But the entire situation is ridiculous.

The centerpiece legislation was rejected by parliament today by a 2:1 margin, under normal circumstances that would mean the PM has to step down.

She won't step down, as that would cause more chaos (I give her more credit than other posters here, as in, I somehow believe she feels a responsibility for the country and stays on out of a misguided sense of duty).

She can't get removed by her party for another 11 months either.

And she won't lose a vote of no confidence either.

 

[Chaircat Meow]

2 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

But the entire situation is ridiculous.

The centerpiece legislation was rejected by parliament today by a 2:1 margin, under normal circumstances that would mean the PM has to step down.

She won't step down, as that would cause more chaos (I give her more credit than other posters here, as in, I somehow believe she feels a responsibility for the country and stays on out of a misguided sense of duty).

She can't get removed by her party for another 11 months either.

And she won't lose a vote of no confidence either.

 

I agree with every single thing you just said. 

edit: O, except her sense of duty being 'misguided. '

[Werthead]

The result just logjams Parliament. So May's deal is dead, the EU won't renegotiate but we can't have a No-Deal situation, so Article 50 will be revoked or extended and then what? Complete paralysis until 2022? That seems untenable.

There is a small chance that May might lose tomorrow night's result, but it would require several Tory MPs to rebel or not show up, and I can't see any Conservative, even the most ardent hard-Brexiter or Remainer, wanting to risk Corbyn getting into power.

[Maithanet]

I want to preface this that I'm just an uninformed American (is there any other kind? )

It looks to me like there are really only two realistic possibilities for things going forward.

1.  Continue to embrace brinksmanship with the EU in the hope that they'll offer a better deal.  Which they obviously won't.  The end of March rolls around and Parliament will have to decide whether to just accept no deal, or revoke article 50 without any sort of mandate.  Both options are probably political suicide for a lot of MPs.  Thus you would think they'd prefer...

2.  A second referendum.  This takes the power out of the hands of parliament and any thus they don't have to deal with the (direct) fallout of any terrible decision.  Whether this is a simple referendum of No Deal vs No Brexit or a more complicated two part question remains to be hashed out.  But either way, it seems far preferable to any MP who wants to keep their job, with the added bonus that it would definitely provide a mandate for any action and there's at least some chance of things working out better than Option #1. 

[Werthead]

8 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

2.  A second referendum.  This takes the power out of the hands of parliament and any thus they don't have to deal with the (direct) fallout of any terrible decision.  Whether this is a simple referendum of No Deal vs No Brexit or a more complicated two part question remains to be hashed out.  But either way, it seems far preferable to any MP who wants to keep their job, with the added bonus that it would definitely provide a mandate for any action and there's at least some chance of things working out better than Option #1. 

This may come to pass, but there's a lot of fear from Leave-voting constituency MPs that voting for a second referendum would be seen as a betrayal (especially if Remain then won, but not from those constituencies) and they'd get booted out at the next election anyway.

[Heartofice]

9 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I want to preface this that I'm just an uninformed American (is there any other kind? )

It looks to me like there are really only two realistic possibilities for things going forward.

1.  Continue to embrace brinksmanship with the EU in the hope that they'll offer a better deal.  Which they obviously won't.  The end of March rolls around and Parliament will have to decide whether to just accept no deal, or revoke article 50 without any sort of mandate.  Both options are probably political suicide for a lot of MPs.  Thus you would think they'd prefer...

2.  A second referendum.  This takes the power out of the hands of parliament and any thus they don't have to deal with the (direct) fallout of any terrible decision.  Whether this is a simple referendum of No Deal vs No Brexit or a more complicated two part question remains to be hashed out.  But either way, it seems far preferable to any MP who wants to keep their job, with the added bonus that it would definitely provide a mandate for any action and there's at least some chance of things working out better than Option #1. 

I think this sounds relatively realistic. 

1) The problem is I don't see what deal could ever be agreed upon, I don't know what the EU could give that would be signed off on by all sides. There seems to be so much disagreement. Having a solid escape mechanism from the backstop would have to be the most obvious thing to include.

2) I'm thinking more that this is the most likely scenario. But then what is the question. There is no deal to vote on vs no deal. If its no deal vs remain and remain loses... then what?! 

[Werthead]

Going by the stats, this is the worst defeat by a sitting government ever (Corbyn incorrectly said since 1924, but that defeat was by only 160 votes), meaning that Brexit is now the biggest (peacetime) political crisis faced by a British government ever. That's extraordinary.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Just now, Heartofice said:

1) The problem is I don't see what deal could ever be agreed upon, I don't know what the EU could give that would be signed off on by all sides. There seems to be so much disagreement. Having a solid escape mechanism from the backstop would have to be the most obvious thing to include.

Nope, not really. You know what the backstop mechanism is, and why it is there? If you did, you know why there couldn't be an escape mechanism. But then again, you also pretend to have voted remain.