UK politics: The tale of an old (Ber)crow who flew down from the cuckoo's nest...

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Just now, Werthead said:

The problem right now is that it isn't Labour policy, so even if a random MP did try to float it, it would likely fail on the number of tow-the-line and Brexit-constituency Labour MPs who'd vote with the leadership (presumably) against it. 

Didn't the last party conference force it down his throat? I thought despite the best efforts of his disciples official party line was.

1. Try to go for a new GE.

2. If the no confidence vote fails (thus no new GE), go for a people's vote.

I can see him kicking and screaming and fighting it all the way, but I think actual Labour policy (I know contradiction in itself these days) is to go for a people's vote now.

[Zorral]

Ay-up -- Theresa May is still PM, surviving the biggest no-confidence vote in parliamentary history.

How does she do it?  Because the rest of the parliamentarians are as dysfunctional and stupid as she and her government, evidently.  Hopeless, hopeless, hopeless.  UK and USA governents, not even on life support, yet they lurch and lumber meaninglessly, depositing decomposition everywhere.

[Chaircat Meow]

4 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Didn't the last party conference force it down his throat? I thought despite the best efforts of his disciples official party line was.

1. Try to go for a new GE.

2. If the no confidence vote fails (thus no new GE), go for a people's vote.

I can see him kicking and screaming and fighting it all the way, but I think actual Labour policy (I know contradiction in itself these days) is to go for a people's vote now.

Wrong 2. was all options are on the table including a 2nd referendum … Remainers then heard what they wanted to hear.

3 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Ay-up -- Theresa May is still PM, surviving the biggest no-confidence vote in parliamentary history.

How does she do it?  Because the rest of the parliamentarians are as dysfunctional and stupid as she and her government, evidently.  Hopeless, hopeless, hopeless.  UK and USA governents, not even on life support, yet they lurch and lumber meaninglessly, depositing decomposition everywhere.

No, just the DUP.  

 

[Werthead]

22 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Didn't the last party conference force it down his throat? I thought despite the best efforts of his disciples official party line was.

1. Try to go for a new GE.

2. If the no confidence vote fails (thus no new GE), go for a people's vote.

I can see him kicking and screaming and fighting it all the way, but I think actual Labour policy (I know contradiction in itself these days) is to go for a people's vote now.

No, the option is on the table but it is not official party policy at this time.

The PM is to make a statement in an hour's time. Not sure what that could be, apart from more grandstanding. Either that, or her meetings with the party leaders were because of some radical step she plans to take (like a GE or a second referendum, neither of which seem plausible coming from her at this time).

[A Horse Named Stranger]

8 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The PM is to make a statement in an hour's time. Not sure what that could be, apart from more grandstanding. Either that, or her meetings with the party leaders were because of some radical step she plans to take (like a GE or a second referendum, neither of which seem plausible coming from her at this time). 

But isn't a GE now just a waste of everybody's time?

I know some die hard Corbynista have been banging on about it for ages. But I still just fail to see the point. Another referendum was something she ruled out, so she will probably do that. Nah, I think she will just say she just had contructive talks with other party leaders, and no ide. Maybe resign afterall?

[Philokles]

BBC deciding to show the FA Cup rather than another inane May statement.

At least this match will reach some conclusion soon.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Meanwhile Ian Dunt is on the money again.

So let's wait and see Corbyn will infuriate everyone and blame it on the mean media and the Blairites.

[Mosi Mynn]

Looks like it will be on BBC2 - just an empty podium so far ... maybe she's legged it ...

[Werthead]

Bit of a nothing statement.

Emerging news that Brexiter cabinet members headed by Liam Fox are floating the idea of requesting a 12-month extension to Article 50 to negotiate a "managed No-Deal".

[DMC]

4 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

It was a joke!!! 

Not dry enough for a UK thread.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Zorral said:

Ay-up -- Theresa May is still PM, surviving the biggest no-confidence vote in parliamentary history.

How does she do it?  Because the rest of the parliamentarians are as dysfunctional and stupid as she and her government, evidently.  Hopeless, hopeless, hopeless.  UK and USA governents, not even on life support, yet they lurch and lumber meaninglessly, depositing decomposition everywhere.

Because no one else wants the job. All you can do is pick from a bunch of bad options, because, ya know, nobody is willing to do the smart one, and who would want to be forever remembered as the PM who helmed the disastrous Leave movement? A hard Brexit could do inter-generational damage. I was listening to two NPR  podcasts today and every expert seemed pretty down on what's about to happen.

[ants]

10 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Apart from say Females aged 18-24 the voting was quite evenly split at around the 60-40 range when you look at age groups. This is the point, there is a huge divide over Brexit, across the country and even in each community. 

40-60 is a pretty wide range.  You've conflated a group where 50% more voted one way (60-40), with a group where 50% less voted that way (40-60).  For over 50's the margin was 60% Remain (64% for people over 65).  Under 50 it was less than 45% (46% for 25-49 year olds).  For people younger/older than 50, the Leave voting rates of <46% versus >60% margin is miles apart.  To say they were split quite evenly is just not true.  With over 50's, at least 50% more voted to Leave.  With under 50's, at least 20% more voted to stay.  That's a big difference. 

how-britain-voted

[ants]

9 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Jesus Christ on a bike (I love that expression), people are still banging on about this?

That argument would only make sense if that translated into majority of Labour voters in those constituencies. Have you checked Labour members/voters view on Brexit? Hint: They are overwhelmingly against it.

It makes electorally little sense to keep the few Labour Brexiters onboard, if you piss off your remain voters in the process. I'll spare you the point of beating Corbyn and his disciples with their listening more to Labour members routine, while effectively shutting down substantial debates on Brexit for the past two party conferences, because it would embarass the Leadership.

Actually, one-third of Labour voters voted for Leave.  I'm not sure how you can say that the vast majority of labour was for Remain.  That was one of the major elements that pushed May to go for an election, she thought that Brexit would split the Labour party.  Instead, ironically, the election hardly touched on Brexit and concentrated on other issues, and Labour did well.  

Same link as for HeartOfIce: how-britain-voted

[ants]

7 hours ago, Zorral said:

Ay-up -- Theresa May is still PM, surviving the biggest no-confidence vote in parliamentary history.

How does she do it?  Because the rest of the parliamentarians are as dysfunctional and stupid as she and her government, evidently.  Hopeless, hopeless, hopeless.  UK and USA governents, not even on life support, yet they lurch and lumber meaninglessly, depositing decomposition everywhere.

Well, that and this is probably the best result for the country.  Only some idiots in labour think trying to hold a general election before the 29th of March is plausible.  Rightly or wrongly, May needs to stay "in charge".  

 

More generally, it appears to me there are two main voting blocks who might change.  There are the Tories who voted for May's deal who have to realign with one of the other options, and there is the Labour leadership + followers.  For me the logical outcome (so it won't happen) is a second vote with managed no-deal versus remain.  Those who voted May's deal can say to their constituents "I voted the deal, that's off the table so these are the remaining options", so they have some protection.  May can argue the same, and she was originally Remain anyway.  Even the hard brexiters would find it a little hard to argue as their preferred option is on the referendum.

The issue with all that is it needs Labour's leadership to support it.  And nobody knows WTF Corbyn et al will actually go for.  You would think with his main push of a general election and Labour renegotiation now off the table with the no-confidence vote, he would have to take a position.  But we know he doesn't like this.  Ironically, the referendum with Remain vs. Negotiated No-Deal would mean he could support something that allows him to still not take a position, so maybe its a realistic possibility.  

 

The reality is, if this was a logical world, then the "Deal" option should be off the table (due to May's vote being lost), and the Labour election + renegotiation should be off the table (due to the no-confidence vote results).  Which should only leave Remain, No-Deal, or maybe one of the existing systems (such as Norway).  The third one hasn't really had any major support at any stage.  So it should be Remain vs. No-Deal.  But somehow I expect it will become "how much more time can we delay things" option. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

9 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Wrong 2. was all options are on the table including a 2nd referendum … Remainers then heard what they wanted to hear.

Thank you, I thought they were more concrete on that matter, but apparently I also heard what I wanted to hear (or I lazily fell for the secondary sources interpretation), as shameful as it is to admit it.

2 hours ago, ants said:

Actually, one-third of Labour voters voted for Leave.  I'm not sure how you can say that the vast majority of labour was for Remain.  That was one of the major elements that pushed May to go for an election, she thought that Brexit would split the Labour party.  Instead, ironically, the election hardly touched on Brexit and concentrated on other issues, and Labour did well.  

Yes, so the Labour voters are two to one in favour of remain. I still stand by what I said, there's no point in appealing to that one third if you piss of the other two thirds at the same time. I mean, by that very same logic I said that that May's deal got shot down in Westminster by a vast majority of MPs. I fail to see the problem with my wording tbh.

If the Labour remain voters found the courage to do what voters up north did, and decide to switch over to a third party (in their case the SNP), then Labour is in real trouble. Maybe Caroline Lucas can do with some company.

[Mosi Mynn]

I'm weirdly admiring of Teresa May right now.  She's survived everything thrown at her, and is so frickin' determined to carry on and see this through (though cross-party collaboration should have been given a try before now).

She's the only leader we seem to have.

[mormont]

5 hours ago, ants said:

Well, that and this is probably the best result for the country.  Only some idiots in labour think trying to hold a general election before the 29th of March is plausible.  Rightly or wrongly, May needs to stay "in charge".  

 

More generally, it appears to me there are two main voting blocks who might change.  There are the Tories who voted for May's deal who have to realign with one of the other options, and there is the Labour leadership + followers.  For me the logical outcome (so it won't happen) is a second vote with managed no-deal versus remain.  Those who voted May's deal can say to their constituents "I voted the deal, that's off the table so these are the remaining options", so they have some protection.  May can argue the same, and she was originally Remain anyway.  Even the hard brexiters would find it a little hard to argue as their preferred option is on the referendum.

The issue with all that is it needs Labour's leadership to support it.  And nobody knows WTF Corbyn et al will actually go for.  You would think with his main push of a general election and Labour renegotiation now off the table with the no-confidence vote, he would have to take a position.  But we know he doesn't like this.  Ironically, the referendum with Remain vs. Negotiated No-Deal would mean he could support something that allows him to still not take a position, so maybe its a realistic possibility.  

 

The reality is, if this was a logical world, then the "Deal" option should be off the table (due to May's vote being lost), and the Labour election + renegotiation should be off the table (due to the no-confidence vote results).  Which should only leave Remain, No-Deal, or maybe one of the existing systems (such as Norway).  The third one hasn't really had any major support at any stage.  So it should be Remain vs. No-Deal.  But somehow I expect it will become "how much more time can we delay things" option. 

A few misunderstandings here. First of all, there is no such thing as a 'managed No Deal'. Doesn't exist. Can't exist. It is a pure fantasy, and we got to this stage by telling people they could have fantasy deals, so let's not do that again.

Secondly, May was originally the most reluctant of Remainers, and did little or nothing for the Remain cause. She is no longer a Remainer, whatever excitable elements on the right would have you think. May has genuine red lines and specifically seems willing to accept whatever outcome she has to in order to end freedom of movement. I just can't see her signing up to any referendum that doesn't mean ending FoM. 

Thirdly, the hard Brexiteers are mostly not going to accept a referendum even if their preferred option is on the ballot, because they don't see the point in risking what they already have. 

36 minutes ago, Mosi Mynn said:

I'm weirdly admiring of Teresa May right now.  She's survived everything thrown at her, and is so frickin' determined to carry on and see this through (though cross-party collaboration should have been given a try before now).

She's the only leader we seem to have.

It's not 'surviving' when your opponents are keeping you in front of them as a human shield. And May has not shown, and continues not to show, any leadership. Even now, her approach is to have 'negotiations' with the other parties, seeking a 'consensus', which actually consists of insisting they must do as she says. A second referendum is off the table. A Norway deal is off the table. Revoking A50 is off the table. But No Deal cannot be taken off the table. Is this leadership? Or just posturing? There's a difference. 

[DMC]

49 minutes ago, Mosi Mynn said:

I'm weirdly admiring of Teresa May right now.

I admire Theresa May in the same way I admire crash test dummies.

[Mosi Mynn]

12 minutes ago, mormont said:

It's not 'surviving' when your opponents are keeping you in front of them as a human shield. And May has not shown, and continues not to show, any leadership. Even now, her approach is to have 'negotiations' with the other parties, seeking a 'consensus', which actually consists of insisting they must do as she says. A second referendum is off the table. A Norway deal is off the table. Revoking A50 is off the table. But No Deal cannot be taken off the table. Is this leadership? Or just posturing? There's a difference. 

Well quite.  But nobody else is doing anything.  In that vacuum she is the only one "leading".

[Gorn]

2 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Thank you, I thought they were more concrete on that matter, but apparently I also heard what I wanted to hear (or I lazily fell for the secondary sources interpretation), as shameful as it is to admit it.

Yes, so the Labour voters are two to one in favour of remain. I still stand by what I said, there's no point in appealing to that one third if you piss of the other two thirds at the same time. I mean, by that very same logic I said that that May's deal got shot down in Westminster by a vast majority of MPs. I fail to see the problem with my wording tbh.

If the Labour remain voters found the courage to do what voters up north did, and decide to switch over to a third party (in their case the SNP), then Labour is in real trouble. Maybe Caroline Lucas can do with some company.

There is already a third party with a strong pro-Remain stance, Liberal Democrats. In the last election, they went all-in on this issue during the campaign, while Labour basically ignored it.  Result? Lib Dems lost 0.5% of vote, while Labour gained 9.6%.